politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tory MPs are really focussed on gaining northern LAB se

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tory MPs are really focussed on gaining northern LAB seats they won’t choose Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker

Today’s big election is the voting by MPs on which of them should be the next Speaker to succeed John Bercow. The strong odds-on betting favourite is the current deputy, Lindsay Hoyle MP for the Lancashire seat of Chorley.

Read the full story here

HYUFD

Better to pick a solid Tory like Eleanor Laing, the Brexit Party would run against Hoyle as Speaker and in a 2 horse race might win it anyway

eek

First as Lindsay should be.

AlastairMeeks

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

numbertwelve

A bit petty to vote on that basis. Which means given our current crop of politicians, they probably will.

Does it make any real difference to the size of the majority though? Doesn’t a labour speaker have 2 Tory deputies and 1 Labour deputy to even things out?

OblitusSumMe

numbertwelve said:

A bit petty to vote on that basis. Which means given our current crop of politicians, they probably will.

Does it make any real difference to the size of the majority though? Doesn’t a labour speaker have 2 Tory deputies and 1 Labour deputy to even things out?

Yes, but if the Tories think they will take Hoyle's seat, then having him as Speaker means that it would be 3 Tory seats and 1 Labour seat as Speaker and deputies.

OblitusSumMe

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Vote Labour to put the Tory in!

OblitusSumMe

Has Bercow been made a Lord yet?

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Portsmouth South was LD from 1997 to 2015, looks like a LD gain with Labour losing the seat and falling to 3rd

nico67

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .

HYUFD

nico67 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .

The BXP are hurting Labour in the North as the Workington poll showed but the Tories against the LDs in the South

GarethoftheVale2

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

The changes quoted are incorrect. Con had 38% last time so -11 for them

nunu2

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

DAMN

The Brexit party is ensuring that Brexit doesn't happen.

HYUFD

nunu2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

DAMN

The Brexit party is ensuring that Brexit doesn't happen.

Not in Labour Leave seats in the North


https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865?s=20

blueblue

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .

The BXP are hurting Labour in the North as the Workington poll showed but the Tories against the LDs in the South

For BXP to enable the LDs to take Tory seats reveals whole landscapes of stupidity that one could scarcely have imagined to exist...

OblitusSumMe

nico67 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .

We don't know for sure. Probably they are still taking some Labour votes in Portsmouth too, with the Lib Dems picking up some Tory voters.

That still makes it crucial that the Brexit Party stand for the Lib Dems, as it would seem to turn a two-way Con/Lab marginal into a three-way marginal.

OblitusSumMe

GarethoftheVale2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

The changes quoted are incorrect. Con had 38% last time so -11 for them

Another Party 6% is also interesting. Last time the only other parties were UKIP (2.5%) and Green (1.6%), so there are votes there for the winning.

AlastairMeeks

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

camel

HYUFD said:

nunu2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

DAMN

The Brexit party is ensuring that Brexit doesn't happen.

Not in Labour Leave seats in the North


https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865?s=20

Workington would gain much less attention if it were more accurately renamed "Lakeland North & Solway".

OnlyLivingBoy

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

Nothing worse than a Welsh polling tease.

nunu2

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

Brexit party taking votes from Tories and allowing Labour to keep most of their seats? Ffs, Nigel, stand down.

Mysticrose

HYUFD said:

nunu2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

DAMN

The Brexit party is ensuring that Brexit doesn't happen.

Not in Labour Leave seats in the North


https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865?s=20

As you blues all told us in 2017 ...

IanB2

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Portsmouth South was LD from 1997 to 2015, looks like a LD gain with Labour losing the seat and falling to 3rd

Regulars will know that I have been predicting a Labour third place here for a while.

Alistair

The AMEriCaN EconoMY is DOING GREAT Trump will sweep ALL BEFORE Him!!!!

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1191322579639947264

eek

nunu2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

Brexit party taking votes from Tories and allowing Labour to keep most of their seats? Ffs, Nigel, stand down.

Nigel - keep standing - we need it for the popcorn value...

Mysticrose

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Portsmouth South was LD from 1997 to 2015, looks like a LD gain with Labour losing the seat and falling to 3rd

Regulars will know that I have been predicting a Labour third place here for a while.

Was that before or after you told us the Hungarian Prime Minister was in Johnson's pocket to veto extension?

Richard_Tyndall

HYUFD said:

Better to pick a solid Tory like Eleanor Laing, the Brexit Party would run against Hoyle as Speaker and in a 2 horse race might win it anyway

Nah. It is time to return to the Speaker being genuinely neutral and above any party politics. Hoyle has shown himself more than capable of this under some pretty difficult circumstances and it should be him.

If the BP are dumb enough to run against him it shouldn't be with the tacit support of the Tories.

Nigel_Foremain

blueblue said:

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .

The BXP are hurting Labour in the North as the Workington poll showed but the Tories against the LDs in the South

For BXP to enable the LDs to take Tory seats reveals whole landscapes of stupidity that one could scarcely have imagined to exist...

..except amongst your average leave voter 😂 😂 😂 😂

Richard_Tyndall

Alistair said:

The AMEriCaN EconoMY is DOING GREAT Trump will sweep ALL BEFORE Him!!!!

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1191322579639947264

Interesting that the two worst hit are Mississippi and Washington State. Don't really see the connection there.

Mysticrose

In defence of Nigel Farage, look at it this way.

If they don't stand, Johnson may get his majority and he can pass his Brexit deal. Nigel Farage apparently thinks this is Brexit in Name Only (BINO) and it will also break up the United Kingdom.

So the alternative is that the Brexit Party do stand, do contest with vigour and do even get a few MPs. They may then get the leverage in Parliament to exact the kind of Brexit (No Deal) that they want. Even without MPs they could push that agenda hard, even if via a second referendum.

The chances of a Corbyn outright win are next-to-zero and either way Brexit would probably go to another vote which gives Farage another go at what he's after.

So much as it would suit the tories to have the BXP stand down, if I were them, I wouldn't.

Nigel_Foremain

eek said:

nunu2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

Brexit party taking votes from Tories and allowing Labour to keep most of their seats? Ffs, Nigel, stand down.

Nigel - keep standing - we need it for the popcorn value...

Nigel Farage's raison d'etre is to try and make as much mischief as he can. What (or who!) makes him like this we can only guess at!

Andrew

Probably not the best seat to extrapolate from nationally, but that's about what you'd expect from a small Con HoC majority.

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

IanB2

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Portsmouth South was LD from 1997 to 2015, looks like a LD gain with Labour losing the seat and falling to 3rd

Regulars will know that I have been predicting a Labour third place here for a while.

Was that before or after you told us the Hungarian Prime Minister was in Johnson's pocket to veto extension?

First time I have ever been mixed up with our HY. Hopefully the last time

OnlyLivingBoy

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Interesting that Labour seem to be underperforming in some of these constituency polls. I wonder whether this poll is consistent with the Survation national polls? My model runs off the latter but gives the seat to Labour, albeit in a tight 3-way split with the three main parties all within 1.5pp of each other (ie any of them could win it). The Tory and Lib Dem shares are all within 2pp of my projection, but BXP and others are lower, with Labour the beneficiary.

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

nunu2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

DAMN

The Brexit party is ensuring that Brexit doesn't happen.

Not in Labour Leave seats in the North

Which just goes to show that you can't just treat the BXP + Con total as the vote available to the Tories if the Brexit Party didn't stand. It's a more complex equation than that.

contrarian

Mysticrose said:

In defence of Nigel Farage, look at it this way.

If they don't stand, Johnson may get his majority and he can pass his Brexit deal. Nigel Farage apparently thinks this is Brexit in Name Only (BINO) and it will also break up the United Kingdom.

So the alternative is that the Brexit Party do stand, do contest with vigour and do even get a few MPs. They may then get the leverage in Parliament to exact the kind of Brexit (No Deal) that they want. Even without MPs they could push that agenda hard, even if via a second referendum.

The chances of a Corbyn outright win are next-to-zero and either way Brexit would probably go to another vote which gives Farage another go at what he's after.

So much as it would suit the tories to have the BXP stand down, if I were them, I wouldn't.

Surely if Farage wanted the balance of power, as he insists, he would target seats he can actually win. Look at the leverage the DUP had with just 10 MPs.

Theuniondivvie

That moment when Tories who've been incessantly frotting themselves over Domski's wargaming skills revert to 'Nobody knows who he is, he represents NO-ONE!'

https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1191335619949137927?s=20

Mysticrose

IanB2 said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Portsmouth South was LD from 1997 to 2015, looks like a LD gain with Labour losing the seat and falling to 3rd

Regulars will know that I have been predicting a Labour third place here for a while.

Was that before or after you told us the Hungarian Prime Minister was in Johnson's pocket to veto extension?

First time I have ever been mixed up with our HY. Hopefully the last time

Ooops

Sorry about that!

Mysticrose

Sample size of 406 on that Portsmouth South poll. Seems a tad tight?

williamglenn

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

There's a scarily hypnotic gif of Hillary Clinton reacting to the poll in the replies.

camel

Mysticrose said:

In defence of Nigel Farage, look at it this way.

If they don't stand, Johnson may get his majority and he can pass his Brexit deal. Nigel Farage apparently thinks this is Brexit in Name Only (BINO) and it will also break up the United Kingdom.

So the alternative is that the Brexit Party do stand, do contest with vigour and do even get a few MPs. They may then get the leverage in Parliament to exact the kind of Brexit (No Deal) that they want. Even without MPs they could push that agenda hard, even if via a second referendum.

The chances of a Corbyn outright win are next-to-zero and either way Brexit would probably go to another vote which gives Farage another go at what he's after.

So much as it would suit the tories to have the BXP stand down, if I were them, I wouldn't.

I suspect many BXP candidates will stand in name only. Perhaps some might not even turn up to Farages mass signing.

I find it hard to believe that BXP have been able to find 650 brexity randomers, all of whom think Boris's deal is a sell out, and none of whom would not wish for a tory government. It defies logic.

Nigel_Foremain

Theuniondivvie said:

That moment when Tories who've been incessantly frotting themselves over Domski's wargaming skills revert to 'Nobody knows who he is, he represents NO-ONE!'

https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1191335619949137927?s=20

I suspect that will be played and played by those opposing the Tories through the campaign. Everyone should know who Cummings is, what he stands for. If they don't know now, they will in a few weeks. He will perhaps eventually be seen as yet another Bozo strategic error.

Endillion

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Why is the Tory only a lower-case "c" candidate? Blatant bias from Survation which is Clearly impacting the results.

Oh, hang on, it's a telephone poll. As you were.

Philip_Thompson

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

NickPalmer

OnlyLivingBoy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Interesting that Labour seem to be underperforming in some of these constituency polls. I wonder whether this poll is consistent with the Survation national polls? My model runs off the latter but gives the seat to Labour, albeit in a tight 3-way split with the three main parties all within 1.5pp of each other (ie any of them could win it). The Tory and Lib Dem shares are all within 2pp of my projection, but BXP and others are lower, with Labour the beneficiary.

A minor point here is the sequencing - the LibDems are listed above Labour for no obvious reason (Alphabet? No. Result last time? No.), and it's possible to surmise that their sponsoring the poll was a factor - the way it works is you propose a question and the polling company decides if there's an obvious bias. I shouldn't think it makes a huge difference but essentially it's a 3-way marginal.

nunu2

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

There's a scarily hypnotic gif of Hillary Clinton reacting to the poll in the replies.

Yes. I didnt quite see the revelance of that gif

Nigel_Foremain

camel said:

Mysticrose said:

In defence of Nigel Farage, look at it this way.

If they don't stand, Johnson may get his majority and he can pass his Brexit deal. Nigel Farage apparently thinks this is Brexit in Name Only (BINO) and it will also break up the United Kingdom.

So the alternative is that the Brexit Party do stand, do contest with vigour and do even get a few MPs. They may then get the leverage in Parliament to exact the kind of Brexit (No Deal) that they want. Even without MPs they could push that agenda hard, even if via a second referendum.

The chances of a Corbyn outright win are next-to-zero and either way Brexit would probably go to another vote which gives Farage another go at what he's after.

So much as it would suit the tories to have the BXP stand down, if I were them, I wouldn't.

I suspect many BXP candidates will stand in name only. Perhaps some might not even turn up to Farages mass signing.

I find it hard to believe that BXP have been able to find 650 brexity randomers, all of whom think Boris's deal is a sell out, and none of whom would not wish for a tory government. It defies logic.

Brexit defies logic, but hey, we have a party that once believed in sound economics and business, now advocating a policy of self harm.

Casino_Royale

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

That moment when Tories who've been incessantly frotting themselves over Domski's wargaming skills revert to 'Nobody knows who he is, he represents NO-ONE!'

https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1191335619949137927?s=20

I suspect that will be played and played by those opposing the Tories through the campaign. Everyone should know who Cummings is, what he stands for. If they don't know now, they will in a few weeks. He will perhaps eventually be seen as yet another Bozo strategic error.

Very old news, and from years ago.

Stocky

HYUFD said: "Better to pick a solid Tory like Eleanor Laing, the Brexit Party would run against Hoyle as Speaker and in a 2 horse race might win it anyway"

Laing has gone right out in the betting now. Can get 20/1 with Betfair. Bryant still moving up in the betting.

NickPalmer

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Better to pick a solid Tory like Eleanor Laing, the Brexit Party would run against Hoyle as Speaker and in a 2 horse race might win it anyway

Nah. It is time to return to the Speaker being genuinely neutral and above any party politics. Hoyle has shown himself more than capable of this under some pretty difficult circumstances and it should be him.

If the BP are dumb enough to run against him it shouldn't be with the tacit support of the Tories.

I think MPs are robust on this, like you - they will pick who they like, and that's probably Hoyle. Whether that might possibly affect the party result nationally by 1 seat won't be a major factor.

Brom

Solid prank. Maybe we should give 15 year olds the vote after all!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7646647/Prankster-15-dupes-Jeremy-Corbyn-signing-paper-saying-support-terrorists.html

Endillion

Nigel_Foremain said:

eek said:

nunu2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

Brexit party taking votes from Tories and allowing Labour to keep most of their seats? Ffs, Nigel, stand down.

Nigel - keep standing - we need it for the popcorn value...

Nigel Farage's raison d'etre is to try and make as much mischief as he can. What (or who!) makes him like this we can only guess at!

Has anyone ever seen Nigel Foremain and Nigel Farage in the same room together?

Pulpstar

Portsmouth South is Lib Dem target 22, NOT 55 as http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat implies. The list is completely wrong.

Nigel_Foremain

Casino_Royale said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

That moment when Tories who've been incessantly frotting themselves over Domski's wargaming skills revert to 'Nobody knows who he is, he represents NO-ONE!'

https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1191335619949137927?s=20

I suspect that will be played and played by those opposing the Tories through the campaign. Everyone should know who Cummings is, what he stands for. If they don't know now, they will in a few weeks. He will perhaps eventually be seen as yet another Bozo strategic error.

Very old news, and from years ago.

It doesn't matter how long ago it is. It is very potent, and very damaging for the Tory brand, though maybe they are banking on their vote being so right wing now they won't care. If Labour don't also use it, I would be very surprised.

Cyclefree

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

To get away from generalities, what specific measures do you think should be taken to increase “agility” and “flexibility” that can’t now be taken, which groups of voters would benefit and what would the cost be and for whom?

OnlyLivingBoy

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

As I mentioned in the previous thread, the UK is already the ninth most business friendly economy in the world according to the World Bank's Doing Business survey, one of 7 EU economies in the top 20. Being in the EU has not prevented us creating a flexible economy. But removing ourselves from the EU single market puts up new barriers to doing business and so we will inevitably have to deregulate elsewhere (lower Labour standards, laxer environmental rules?) just to stand still.

Gabs2

This is the stuff the EU needs to tighten up on. It just needlessly bleeds support for European integration.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/03/world/europe/eu-farm-subsidy-hungary.html

Nigel_Foremain

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Interesting that Labour seem to be underperforming in some of these constituency polls. I wonder whether this poll is consistent with the Survation national polls? My model runs off the latter but gives the seat to Labour, albeit in a tight 3-way split with the three main parties all within 1.5pp of each other (ie any of them could win it). The Tory and Lib Dem shares are all within 2pp of my projection, but BXP and others are lower, with Labour the beneficiary.

A minor point here is the sequencing - the LibDems are listed above Labour for no obvious reason (Alphabet? No. Result last time? No.), and it's possible to surmise that their sponsoring the poll was a factor - the way it works is you propose a question and the polling company decides if there's an obvious bias. I shouldn't think it makes a huge difference but essentially it's a 3-way marginal.

Bit of straw clutching going on there Nick?

AlastairMeeks

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

There's a scarily hypnotic gif of Hillary Clinton reacting to the poll in the replies.

Perhaps Mike could include this in his thread headers will polling findings in future:

https://twitter.com/CJLittlemore/status/1191302217455800320

Nigel_Foremain

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

To get away from generalities, what specific measures do you think should be taken to increase “agility” and “flexibility” that can’t now be taken, which groups of voters would benefit and what would the cost be and for whom?

Great question, which he will be unable to answer.

NickPalmer

Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.

Nigel_Foremain

NickPalmer said:

Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.

Agreed.

OnlyLivingBoy

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

To get away from generalities, what specific measures do you think should be taken to increase “agility” and “flexibility” that can’t now be taken, which groups of voters would benefit and what would the cost be and for whom?

I think we discussed this a few weeks back and the main upside was freedom to feed chickens our leftovers.

eek

NickPalmer said:

Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.

Yep - the NI parties look like just about the only adults in the room.

AlastairMeeks

NickPalmer said:

Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.

The DUP look to be in some trouble in these elections, facing a pincer movement with multiple pincers. They'll be lucky if they come out of these elections only an MP or two down.

nunu2

Alistair said:

The AMEriCaN EconoMY is DOING GREAT Trump will sweep ALL BEFORE Him!!!!

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1191322579639947264

New Upshot polling showing Trump within being very competitive against all three of Biden, Sanders and Warren.

Basically Trump is doing well with the white working class, as many of them who voted for moderate Dems in the midterms return to him in the GENERAL.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1191324016038043744

AramintaMoonbeamQC

John Woodcock not contesting Barrow.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JWoodcockMP/status/1191352598147878913

Richard_Nabavi

Nigel_Foremain said:

NickPalmer said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

Interesting that Labour seem to be underperforming in some of these constituency polls. I wonder whether this poll is consistent with the Survation national polls? My model runs off the latter but gives the seat to Labour, albeit in a tight 3-way split with the three main parties all within 1.5pp of each other (ie any of them could win it). The Tory and Lib Dem shares are all within 2pp of my projection, but BXP and others are lower, with Labour the beneficiary.

A minor point here is the sequencing - the LibDems are listed above Labour for no obvious reason (Alphabet? No. Result last time? No.), and it's possible to surmise that their sponsoring the poll was a factor - the way it works is you propose a question and the polling company decides if there's an obvious bias. I shouldn't think it makes a huge difference but essentially it's a 3-way marginal.

Bit of straw clutching going on there Nick?

Well, yes, Nick's comment did read a bit like that, but he's perfectly right that the poll shows nothing more than that it might be a three-way marginal: on a sample of 406 (even if it's a representative one, which is difficult for single-constituency polls) the difference between the three parties is not statistically very significant.

Nigel_Foremain

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

To get away from generalities, what specific measures do you think should be taken to increase “agility” and “flexibility” that can’t now be taken, which groups of voters would benefit and what would the cost be and for whom?

I think we discussed this a few weeks back and the main upside was freedom to feed chickens our leftovers.

Since about 2015 I have been asking those who advocate leave what actual benefits will result. The only thing they can ever come up with is "sovereignty", which is, of course, guff. Brexit is fool's gold, unless you are Tory politician at the right wing of the spectrum, a journalist or a hedge fund manager. Everyone else loses out.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1191354669286723585

Theuniondivvie

AlastairMeeks said:

NickPalmer said:

Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.

The DUP look to be in some trouble in these elections, facing a pincer movement with multiple pincers. They'll be lucky if they come out of these elections only an MP or two down.

Fear not, the Unionists have a coherent, thought-through response to this.

https://twitter.com/dup_online/status/1191349085124456448?s=20

Brom

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1191351967320289281

Think there will be quite a lot of this. Plenty of candidates will stand aside so you would think it's better Farage makes the decision himself rather than have the candidates for him. Heard the original Portsmouth South candidate is no longer standing too.

That Portsmouth South poll could be the best thing that happened to the Tories.

Polruan

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

But if the effect of taking back control, as you put it, is that voters then have a choice between significant economic damage on one hand, or accepting policies they don’t like in order to mitigate that damage on the other hand, doesn’t that suggest the cost of taking back control is too high? It looks a lot like an ideological benefit with no practical benefit at that point.

Gabs2

nunu2 said:

Alistair said:

The AMEriCaN EconoMY is DOING GREAT Trump will sweep ALL BEFORE Him!!!!

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1191322579639947264

New Upshot polling showing Trump within being very competitive against all three of Biden, Sanders and Warren.

Basically Trump is doing well with the white working class, as many of them who voted for moderate Dems in the midterms return to him in the GENERAL.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1191324016038043744

I had no idea economic performance varied so much by state borders. Look at Alabama vs Mississippi!

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

By all accounts, Hoyle's a good and independent deputy speaker, and fully deserves the top job. It'd be a short-sighted act to lumber the House with an inferior Speaker (again) to satisfy a small, narrow-minded ambition.

Charles

blueblue said:

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .

The BXP are hurting Labour in the North as the Workington poll showed but the Tories against the LDs in the South

For BXP to enable the LDs to take Tory seats reveals whole landscapes of stupidity that one could scarcely have imagined to exist...

You’re assuming their objective is to Brexit rather than, say, allow Farage to play the martyr for another decade or two

Charles

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

Labour doing better than expected...

Pulpstar

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

Labour doing better than expected...

Can you link ?

Gabs2

Richard_Tyndall said:

Alistair said:

The AMEriCaN EconoMY is DOING GREAT Trump will sweep ALL BEFORE Him!!!!

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1191322579639947264

Interesting that the two worst hit are Mississippi and Washington State. Don't really see the connection there.

Most relevant for our purposes are the poor numbers in Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina, which are the most likely tipping point states.

Beibheirli_C

camel said:

Mysticrose said:

In defence of Nigel Farage, look at it this way.

If they don't stand, Johnson may get his majority and he can pass his Brexit deal. Nigel Farage apparently thinks this is Brexit in Name Only (BINO) and it will also break up the United Kingdom.

So the alternative is that the Brexit Party do stand, do contest with vigour and do even get a few MPs. They may then get the leverage in Parliament to exact the kind of Brexit (No Deal) that they want. Even without MPs they could push that agenda hard, even if via a second referendum.

The chances of a Corbyn outright win are next-to-zero and either way Brexit would probably go to another vote which gives Farage another go at what he's after.

So much as it would suit the tories to have the BXP stand down, if I were them, I wouldn't.

I suspect many BXP candidates will stand in name only. Perhaps some might not even turn up to Farages mass signing.

I find it hard to believe that BXP have been able to find 650 brexity randomers, all of whom think Boris's deal is a sell out, and none of whom would not wish for a tory government. It defies logic.

Are you seriously suggesting that Farage cannot find 650 crazies? Out of 65 million people? It is only 0.001%

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1191356922827563011

Sunil_Prasannan

Charles said:

blueblue said:

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Talking of constituencies:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1191341300001517568

That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .

The BXP are hurting Labour in the North as the Workington poll showed but the Tories against the LDs in the South

For BXP to enable the LDs to take Tory seats reveals whole landscapes of stupidity that one could scarcely have imagined to exist...

You’re assuming their objective is to Brexit rather than, say, allow Farage to play the martyr for another decade or two

Farage has been a pro-Labour agent-provocateur ever since he left the Tory Party.

camel

Brom said:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1191351967320289281

Think there will be quite a lot of this. Plenty of candidates will stand aside so you would think it's better Farage makes the decision himself rather than have the candidates for him. Heard the original Portsmouth South candidate is no longer standing too.

That Portsmouth South poll could be the best thing that happened to the Tories.

I'd be surprised if, by December, there are more than 50 'active' BXP candidates, possibly hurting lab more than con.

From a libdem perspective though, the more the merrier. From a betting perspective I have no idea, though I shall be trawling here for clues.

Floater

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

Labour doing better than expected...

Can you link ?

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1098920596732370944

Charles

camel said:

Mysticrose said:

In defence of Nigel Farage, look at it this way.

If they don't stand, Johnson may get his majority and he can pass his Brexit deal. Nigel Farage apparently thinks this is Brexit in Name Only (BINO) and it will also break up the United Kingdom.

So the alternative is that the Brexit Party do stand, do contest with vigour and do even get a few MPs. They may then get the leverage in Parliament to exact the kind of Brexit (No Deal) that they want. Even without MPs they could push that agenda hard, even if via a second referendum.

The chances of a Corbyn outright win are next-to-zero and either way Brexit would probably go to another vote which gives Farage another go at what he's after.

So much as it would suit the tories to have the BXP stand down, if I were them, I wouldn't.

I suspect many BXP candidates will stand in name only. Perhaps some might not even turn up to Farages mass signing.

I find it hard to believe that BXP have been able to find 650 brexity randomers, all of whom think Boris's deal is a sell out, and none of whom would not wish for a tory government. It defies logic.

Plus all the nominators (how many per constituency?)

rottenborough

Brexit dying right before our eyes.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1191354669286723585

GarethoftheVale2

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JWoodcockMP/status/1191352598147878913

That makes it 63 MPs standing down now I believe. May be a few more to come yet such as Keith Vaz and Dennis Skinner (rumoured). Wonder whether Ian Austin will stand again.

Philip_Thompson

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

To get away from generalities, what specific measures do you think should be taken to increase “agility” and “flexibility” that can’t now be taken, which groups of voters would benefit and what would the cost be and for whom?

One specific example I have oft-quoted is that we should with an independent trade policy look to liberalise trade with the rest of the world. We can get a trade deal with countries like the USA [which is bigger than the entire Single Market combined] and many more which the EU don't have a trade deal with.

Richard_Tyndall

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

Alistair said:

The AMEriCaN EconoMY is DOING GREAT Trump will sweep ALL BEFORE Him!!!!

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1191322579639947264

New Upshot polling showing Trump within being very competitive against all three of Biden, Sanders and Warren.

Basically Trump is doing well with the white working class, as many of them who voted for moderate Dems in the midterms return to him in the GENERAL.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1191324016038043744

I had no idea economic performance varied so much by state borders. Look at Alabama vs Mississippi!

I assume it is all down to State regulation. Quite a stark illustration if so.

Big_G_NorthWales

rottenborough said:

Brexit dying right before our eyes.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1191354669286723585

It depends on where Farage campaigns and how many of his candidates stand

He has said his target is labour in the north, midlands and Wales.

If however he is active in the south and south west it could result in problems for Boris

Early days but I have not been one of those expecting a large majority

Charles

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Meanwhile, teasing us:

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1191301446664433665

There's a scarily hypnotic gif of Hillary Clinton reacting to the poll in the replies.

Perhaps Mike could include this in his thread headers will polling findings in future:

https://twitter.com/CJLittlemore/status/1191302217455800320

Whose hand is it?

Pulpstar

Jeesh can people stop linking centuries old tweets as if they've come out yesterday.

El_Capitano

Brom said:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1191351967320289281

Think there will be quite a lot of this. Plenty of candidates will stand aside so you would think it's better Farage makes the decision himself rather than have the candidates for him. Heard the original Portsmouth South candidate is no longer standing too.

That Portsmouth South poll could be the best thing that happened to the Tories.

I'm surprised that the Lib Dems are commissioning public rather than private polling.

Richard_Tyndall

Nigel_Foremain said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

To get away from generalities, what specific measures do you think should be taken to increase “agility” and “flexibility” that can’t now be taken, which groups of voters would benefit and what would the cost be and for whom?

I think we discussed this a few weeks back and the main upside was freedom to feed chickens our leftovers.

Since about 2015 I have been asking those who advocate leave what actual benefits will result. The only thing they can ever come up with is "sovereignty", which is, of course, guff. Brexit is fool's gold, unless you are Tory politician at the right wing of the spectrum, a journalist or a hedge fund manager. Everyone else loses out.

A number of us have regularly pointed out benefits but you have always chosen to ignore them or deride them. There gets a point where it is no longer worth taking your questions at face value as clearly you have no interest in the answers.

OldKingCole

Charles said:

camel said:

Mysticrose said:

In defence of Nigel Farage, look at it this way.

If they don't stand, Johnson may get his majority and he can pass his Brexit deal. Nigel Farage apparently thinks this is Brexit in Name Only (BINO) and it will also break up the United Kingdom.

So the alternative is that the Brexit Party do stand, do contest with vigour and do even get a few MPs. They may then get the leverage in Parliament to exact the kind of Brexit (No Deal) that they want. Even without MPs they could push that agenda hard, even if via a second referendum.

The chances of a Corbyn outright win are next-to-zero and either way Brexit would probably go to another vote which gives Farage another go at what he's after.

So much as it would suit the tories to have the BXP stand down, if I were them, I wouldn't.

I suspect many BXP candidates will stand in name only. Perhaps some might not even turn up to Farages mass signing.

I find it hard to believe that BXP have been able to find 650 brexity randomers, all of whom think Boris's deal is a sell out, and none of whom would not wish for a tory government. It defies logic.

Plus all the nominators (how many per constituency?)

Twelve. Nomination, second and ten assenters. All have to be on the register in the constituency. Candidate doesn't have to live there, though, but has to be on the Register somewhere.

nichomar

camel said:

Brom said:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1191351967320289281

Think there will be quite a lot of this. Plenty of candidates will stand aside so you would think it's better Farage makes the decision himself rather than have the candidates for him. Heard the original Portsmouth South candidate is no longer standing too.

That Portsmouth South poll could be the best thing that happened to the Tories.

I'd be surprised if, by December, there are more than 50 'active' BXP candidates, possibly hurting lab more than con.

From a libdem perspective though, the more the merrier. From a betting perspective I have no idea, though I shall be trawling here for clues.

TBP would rather we remained in the EU than let this deal go through. They genuinely believe it is a sellout and will see no logic in standing aside as do a lot of their supporters. His decision to not fight a seat is actually quite canny being able to campaign without being tied down and removing the media circus from a single constituency.

OldKingCole

Gabs2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Alistair said:

The AMEriCaN EconoMY is DOING GREAT Trump will sweep ALL BEFORE Him!!!!

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1191322579639947264

Interesting that the two worst hit are Mississippi and Washington State. Don't really see the connection there.

Most relevant for our purposes are the poor numbers in Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina, which are the most likely tipping point states.

Surely the lack of a connection between Mississippi and Washington State is indicative of something serious happening.

Brom

nichomar said:

camel said:

Brom said:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1191351967320289281

Think there will be quite a lot of this. Plenty of candidates will stand aside so you would think it's better Farage makes the decision himself rather than have the candidates for him. Heard the original Portsmouth South candidate is no longer standing too.

That Portsmouth South poll could be the best thing that happened to the Tories.

I'd be surprised if, by December, there are more than 50 'active' BXP candidates, possibly hurting lab more than con.

From a libdem perspective though, the more the merrier. From a betting perspective I have no idea, though I shall be trawling here for clues.

TBP would rather we remained in the EU than let this deal go through. They genuinely believe it is a sellout and will see no logic in standing aside as do a lot of their supporters. His decision to not fight a seat is actually quite canny being able to campaign without being tied down and removing the media circus from a single constituency.

That might be true of Farage but I'm sure plenty of their candidates and activists disagree. We've already seen some standing aside.

Philip_Thompson

Polruan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Unanswered questions are at least now starting to be asked...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-and-europe-are-destined-be-rivals-after-brexit/601288/

Damn right we will be competitors after Brexit and too right too, that is the entire point.

Competition is a good thing, competition makes us healthier and better.

That is all very fine as a general statement.

But how politically acceptable do you think the measures needed to make this competition effective will be to the sorts of voters the Tories are targeting?

I hope they would be very acceptable and they would only occur post-Brexit if the population is carried to agree with the changes overall.

That is the whole point of taking back control, if the voters dislike what is proposed done they can prevent or reverse it.

But if the effect of taking back control, as you put it, is that voters then have a choice between significant economic damage on one hand, or accepting policies they don’t like in order to mitigate that damage on the other hand, doesn’t that suggest the cost of taking back control is too high? It looks a lot like an ideological benefit with no practical benefit at that point.

I never put the choice as that and I don't agree with such a negative attitude. I don't agree that the damage will be significant and I think the point of takin back control is not to "mitigate that damage" it is to cease currently neglected opportunities outside.

RobD

El_Capitano said:

Brom said:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1191351967320289281

Think there will be quite a lot of this. Plenty of candidates will stand aside so you would think it's better Farage makes the decision himself rather than have the candidates for him. Heard the original Portsmouth South candidate is no longer standing too.

That Portsmouth South poll could be the best thing that happened to the Tories.

I'm surprised that the Lib Dems are commissioning public rather than private polling.

Isn’t it only public because they decided to make it public?