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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set to make gains from LAB in London

Westminster voting changes from today's YouGov London poll suggest the Tories could make gains from LAB in the capital

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TheScreamingEagles

Primus inter pares

eristdoof

first (well almost)

RobD

CON GAIN East Ham?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/JackTindale/status/1191755564570828802

dyedwoolie

So who's at risk do we think?

TudorRose

Primus stove.

Cookie

If the Tories do make gains in London - and Wales, and the North - and losses in the home counties - and form a government - then it could be the most geographically balanced party in power we've seen for some time. A lot of ifs there, mind you.

DeClare

Boris's home city too really, after all he was elected mayor there twice.

AlastairMeeks

There could be some huge results on this poll, especially given the differential swings in inner and outer London.

Morris_Dancer

Hmm.

I'll believe that, and the People's Republic of South Yorkshire turning blue, when I see it.

Philip_Thompson

FPT

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1191739875990654976

Good riddance. Incompetent and arrogant fool.

A Chancellor who thinks it is a good idea to spend billions on Trident to mitigate against the risk of nuclear war but thinks it is a good idea to block spending on preparations for a no deal Brexit when it is not just a clear and present risk that it could occur but is in fact government policy that it could occur is utterly out of his depth and should never be trusted near power ever again.

What an absolutely stupid post. Really, you sound completely deranged.

Quite apart from the absurdity of your comparison, we were assured by Boris and his team just days after Hammond resigned that No Deal was going to be fine on October 31st. So how in the name of heaven can it possibly be that Hammond blocked spending on preparations? If he had, Boris would have have to extend as we wouldn't have been ready, wouldn't he?

Its an entirely reasonable comparison. The point is that the government doesn't just spend money it wants to occur, but to prepare for unwanted contingencies. Even if a government wants a deal, it is entirely logical and reasonable to prepare for No Deal. If we only prepared for events we wanted to occur we could abolish not just Trident but the entire Ministry of Defence.

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

GIN1138

That was/is a shocker of a poll for Labour.

Net gains for Con in Lab's (supposedly) strongest area in the whole country indicates Jezza is in big, big trouble in this election, IMO.

Philip_Thompson

Cookie said:

If the Tories do make gains in London - and Wales, and the North - and losses in the home counties - and form a government - then it could be the most geographically balanced party in power we've seen for some time. A lot of ifs there, mind you.

Especially if they can hold off the SNP too.

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Roger

I don't sense Corbyn is doing that badly. There's always a lag in the polls and Johnson has given Corbyn a Christmas present he couldn't have dreamed of. He can promise whatever he wants knowing that the Tories can never claim his offers lack prudence. Free child care
four day week TV licences nationalised railway free education
......and his Robin Hood policies will be popular.

DeClare

dyedwoolie said:

So who's at risk do we think?

Tories would regain Battersea, Croydon Central and Kensington, Lib Dems would regain Hornsey & Wood Green and Southwark & Bermondsey.

Byronic

London is the capital of Remainia. It is also the richest city in the EU by far, full of eager hardworking people who want to do well, and who therefore abhor Corbyn.

It’s the certain penury of Corbynism versus the possible hit to living standards from Brexit. The former begins to appal even more than the latter

TheScreamingEagles

Blimey, Liverpool to play two matches on consecutive days in two different continents.

Liverpool Football Club can confirm our Carabao Cup quarter-final tie at Aston Villa will take place on Tuesday December 17, 2019.

As a result, we will be utilising two playing squads simultaneously, with one squad participating in the FIFA Club World Cup in Qatar and another in the Carabao Cup.

The club would like to take this opportunity to underline that while this is not an ideal scenario, it is an outcome which was arrived at with the best interests of the competition, our fellow clubs and ourselves as the sole motivating factor.

We would like to thank the EFL for their efforts to accommodate us and we can confirm alternative dates were discussed, but ultimately none were considered suitable without compromising the scheduling of the competition itself or placing an undue strain on our playing staff.

https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/372222-club-statement-carabao-cup-aston-villa

GIN1138

Roger said:

I don't sense Corbyn is doing that badly.

Rogerdarmus strikes again...

JBriskinindyref2

Washington DC

A rising star of the Democratic party resigned as a congresswoman this week (Brisky note: last week) over claims that she had a three-way relationship with her husband and a female campaign staffer, and an affair with a male aide. Katie Hill, 32, who is openly bisexual, denied the latter claim, which would have been a breach of House rules. But she admitted having a relationship with a subordinate during the "final years of my abusive marriage", after a right-wing website published intimate pictures of her with the 24 year old woman in question. She has described the publication of the photos as a violation of her privacy, and vowed to fight "revenge porn".

https://www.theweek.co.uk/

Stark_Dawning

Cookie said:

If the Tories do make gains in London - and Wales, and the North - and losses in the home counties - and form a government - then it could be the most geographically balanced party in power we've seen for some time. A lot of ifs there, mind you.

My hunch is that will prove to be a chimera. The extension will have done for Boris. Hitherto I detected some genuine fascination with both him and Cummings - that they really had some magic trick up their sleeve to solve the Brexit conundrum. Now they just look like political journeymen, being bumped around by the tide of history.

Lennon

FWIW (not a lot) I'm not intending to stand as the Pirate candidate in Vauxhall this time around. We've already seen some generic Lib Dem literature but it seems to be postal deliveries rather than hand deliveries like in 2017. Presumably Hoey not standing means that there isn't the emotional 'I want to help here' pull that there was in 2017. I struggle to see Vauxhall as anything other than a solid Labour hold - and think that unlike a lot of other seats, a large proportion of all the 'Remainiac' Lib voters already switched in 2017 given the Lab candidate.

eristdoof

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Children, stop squabbling. All the parties have ludicrous positions on Brexit, OK?

Indeed. The Tory policy of ruling out an extension to the transition period is utterly absurd and completely destructive. Either Johnson has to renege on the promise and start a Tory civil war or he has to take the UK off a cliff edge and inflict serious long term economic damage on the very constituencies that the Tories need to keep on winning to stay in power. What's more, the electoral benefit is probably neutral; as it will drive as many current LD voters to Labour as it will BXP voters to the Tories.

Every year is starting to feel the same

Same procedure as last year Miss Sophie?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m41zSmNoTmA

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blimey, Liverpool to play two matches on consecutive days in two different continents.

Liverpool Football Club can confirm our Carabao Cup quarter-final tie at Aston Villa will take place on Tuesday December 17, 2019.

As a result, we will be utilising two playing squads simultaneously, with one squad participating in the FIFA Club World Cup in Qatar and another in the Carabao Cup.

The club would like to take this opportunity to underline that while this is not an ideal scenario, it is an outcome which was arrived at with the best interests of the competition, our fellow clubs and ourselves as the sole motivating factor.

We would like to thank the EFL for their efforts to accommodate us and we can confirm alternative dates were discussed, but ultimately none were considered suitable without compromising the scheduling of the competition itself or placing an undue strain on our playing staff.

https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/372222-club-statement-carabao-cup-aston-villa

A very similar situation is likely to occur in the cricket world next year, with players plucked from County squads to pay in the Abominable Hundred.

SouthamObserver

My guess is that after five weeks of electioneering the actual result will look better for Labour, but it will not be anywhere near 2017 levels. Ironically, the London Labour party is probably where Momentum is least effective - hence the failures to deslect a number of MPs that had been targeted. It looks like the elctorate may do the job instead in some cases, though.

Richard_Nabavi

To answer my own question on the previous thread, I think Labour are the value in Ashfield. Yes, really. I got on for a few quid at 5.5 (Betfair Sports) and 4.5 at William Hill. Reasoning:

- Labour brand loyalty
- LibDems nowhere
- Leave vote, where it defects from Labour, split three ways Con/BXP/Ashfield Inds.

And a decent-looking Labour candidate.

PClipp

DeClare said:

Boris's home city too really, after all he was elected mayor there twice.

But really his home city is New York. Which makes him a citizen of nowhere, I suppose....

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

There shoudn't have been a need to ramp up preparations at the last minute, preparations would have been better if they'd been a properly considered contingency all along - which would have aided us in the negotiations as well. It takes a demented attitude to consider neglecting sensible precautionary preparations to be the right move.

As for 'respected Chancellor' - you have some sense of humour there! 😂 If Hammond, post-referendum, did not intend to prepare us properly for Brexit he should never have taken the job of Chancellor, the same as Theresa May who was not far from going from Prime Minister to pariah in a matter of weeks too, which is why the party under their leadership managed to poll unprecedentedly in single digits earlier this year in a national election.

The only precedence I can think of for Hammond is Ramsay MacDonald.

GarethoftheVale2

The key question on ratings is whether there is any precedent for a leader of the opposition who has been in power for 4 years to improve their rating.

Last time round Corbyn could improve his rating because he was not as well known. Surely by now everyone's opinion is pretty fixed (same with Boris)

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

There could be some huge results on this poll, especially given the differential swings in inner and outer London.

I'm sure the Labour vote will hold up very well in London seats with large BAME populations. And, Labour won't be making any headway in London constituencies that are pro-Brexit.

The interesting ones are the middle class Remain seats, which are potentially becoming three way marginals.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Roger, Labour's certainly been making the early running.

anothernick

Roger said:

I don't sense Corbyn is doing that badly. There's always a lag in the polls and Johnson has given Corbyn a Christmas present he couldn't have dreamed of. He can promise whatever he wants knowing that the Tories can never claim his offers lack prudence. Free child care
four day week TV licences nationalised railway free education
......and his Robin Hood policies will be popular.

I was at a city fund manager's client presentation the other day at which they opined that there was little to choose between the parties in terms of economic policy, all want to raise public spending back to 1970s levels and Labour's magic money tree was only very slightly larger than that of the Tories.

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blimey, Liverpool to play two matches on consecutive days in two different continents.

Liverpool Football Club can confirm our Carabao Cup quarter-final tie at Aston Villa will take place on Tuesday December 17, 2019.

As a result, we will be utilising two playing squads simultaneously, with one squad participating in the FIFA Club World Cup in Qatar and another in the Carabao Cup.

The club would like to take this opportunity to underline that while this is not an ideal scenario, it is an outcome which was arrived at with the best interests of the competition, our fellow clubs and ourselves as the sole motivating factor.

We would like to thank the EFL for their efforts to accommodate us and we can confirm alternative dates were discussed, but ultimately none were considered suitable without compromising the scheduling of the competition itself or placing an undue strain on our playing staff.

https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/first-team/372222-club-statement-carabao-cup-aston-villa

Hopefully the Liverpool reserves can defeat Villa. Ridiculous position to be in, almost as bonkers as a Hammond budget

rural_voter

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Alistair

That's pretty shit

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19

Original interview is in the next tweet.

JBriskinindyref2

anothernick said:

Roger said:

I don't sense Corbyn is doing that badly. There's always a lag in the polls and Johnson has given Corbyn a Christmas present he couldn't have dreamed of. He can promise whatever he wants knowing that the Tories can never claim his offers lack prudence. Free child care
four day week TV licences nationalised railway free education
......and his Robin Hood policies will be popular.

I was at a city fund manager's client presentation the other day at which they opined that there was little to choose between the parties in terms of economic policy, all want to raise public spending back to 1970s levels and Labour's magic money tree was only very slightly larger than that of the Tories.

Citeh folk like Labours remainac stance - guess we'll just have to wait for the "fully costed manifestos"

Richard_Nabavi

Alistair said:

That's pretty shit

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19

Original interview is in the next tweet.

The Tories have learnt from the 2017 Momentum campaign.

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

There could be some huge results on this poll, especially given the differential swings in inner and outer London.

I'm sure the Labour vote will hold up very well in London seats with large BAME populations. And, Labour won't be making any headway in London constituencies that are pro-Brexit.

The interesting ones are the middle class Remain seats, which are potentially becoming three way marginals.

Emily Thornberry won more than 62% of the vote in Islington South & Finsbury in 2017. I wonder what that percentage will be next month.

Stark_Dawning

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Yes, an absolute travesty. Boris is a political pygmy with not a single achievement to speak of. Such soaring arrogance, and contempt for those better than him, is deeply unattractive in a small man.

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alistair said:

That's pretty shit

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19

Original interview is in the next tweet.

The Tories have learnt from the 2017 Momentum campaign.

It's probably going to get 10x as many views because of this. I'm going to call it red bus syndrome.

eristdoof

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

The difference that Mr Nabavi is making is that for Ken Clarke the journey from Chancellor to being booted out of the party took 20 years, for Phillip Hammond it was two months.

DeClare

PClipp said:

DeClare said:

Boris's home city too really, after all he was elected mayor there twice.

But really his home city is New York. Which makes him a citizen of nowhere, I suppose....

Boris was born in New York obviously he didn't have much choice as that was where his mother was at the time, but he has spent most of his life in and around the capital.
Corbyn on the other hand lived in Wiltshire and Shropshire until he entered politics.

Richard_Tyndall

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

Richard_Nabavi

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alistair said:

That's pretty shit

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19

Original interview is in the next tweet.

The Tories have learnt from the 2017 Momentum campaign.

It's probably going to get 10x as many views because of this. I'm going to call it red bus syndrome.

Yep. I am afraid that it's a case of 'as ye sow, so ye shall reap'. The Labour/Momentum videos attacking Theresa May in 2017 were absolutely vile, and went largely under the radar because they used Facebook to distribute them.

eristdoof

DeClare said:

PClipp said:

DeClare said:

Boris's home city too really, after all he was elected mayor there twice.

But really his home city is New York. Which makes him a citizen of nowhere, I suppose....

Boris was born in New York obviously he didn't have much choice as that was where his mother was at the time, but he has spent most of his life in and around the capital.
Corbyn on the other hand lived in Wiltshire and Shropshire until he entered politics.

didn't he spend some of his teenage years in Brussels?

DecrepitJohnL

The broadcasting neutrality rules are hugely important.

But they do not cover videos on social media, increasingly used by all parties, and the Conservative Party has recently hired a New Zealand firm to make unregulated attack videos.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-s-conservatives-hire-kiwi-gurus-who-worked-on-morrison-s-shock-win-20191008-p52yia.html

ETA: and see earlier in this thread for an example of this already happening.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

Precisely. Well said.

dyedwoolie

Question of father of the house.. if Skinner gets booted then is Bottomley standing again? If not with Geoffrey Robinson standing down one assumes it will be Barry Sheerman??

kinabalu

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

You need to have suspended your critical faculties in order to believe this. I think you do believe it ergo it follows that said faculties have been suspended. But have you done that on purpose or was it an accident? - this I am genuinely curious about because you are clearly far from being an idiot.

Peter_the_Punter

DeClare said:

Boris's home city too really, after all he was elected mayor there twice.

He was elected as a pro-business pro-EU Mayor.

Anabobazina

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

There could be some huge results on this poll, especially given the differential swings in inner and outer London.

I'm sure the Labour vote will hold up very well in London seats with large BAME populations. And, Labour won't be making any headway in London constituencies that are pro-Brexit.

The interesting ones are the middle class Remain seats, which are potentially becoming three way marginals.

Seat's like IDS's marginal in Chingford are interesting (assuming Labour is doing proportionately better in outer London seats – that seat voted marginally to Remain).

Richard_Nabavi

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

LOL! And what negotiating position exactly did Boris have? Abject surrender to the EU's original offer, so desperate was he having boxed himself in to his brain-dead self-imposed deadline.

Cookie

GIN1138 said:

That was/is a shocker of a poll for Labour.

Net gains for Con in Lab's (supposedly) strongest area in the whole country indicates Jezza is in big, big trouble in this election, IMO.

Not really - because it was Corbyn's strongest area last time around, too. It would be a shocker if Con were predicted most seats in Lab's strongest area, But that doesn't look likely!

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

But you Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear and would never happen because we held all the cards and the EU needed us more than we needed them.

Why waste money on something that Leave said would never happen?

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

But you Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear and would never happen because we held all the cards and the EU needed us more than we needed them.

Why waste money on something that Leave said would never happen?

Million-to-one, wasn't it?

Roger

eristdoof said:

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Children, stop squabbling. All the parties have ludicrous positions on Brexit, OK?

Indeed. The Tory policy of ruling out an extension to the transition period is utterly absurd and completely destructive. Either Johnson has to renege on the promise and start a Tory civil war or he has to take the UK off a cliff edge and inflict serious long term economic damage on the very constituencies that the Tories need to keep on winning to stay in power. What's more, the electoral benefit is probably neutral; as it will drive as many current LD voters to Labour as it will BXP voters to the Tories.

Every year is starting to feel the same

Same procedure as last year Miss Sophie?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m41zSmNoTmA

My German clients used to play me that every December and laugh like drains. It's a very German thing!!

TheScreamingEagles

Martin Atkinson should never referee a match ever again.

https://twitter.com/skysports_bryan/status/1191762441484591104

DecrepitJohnL

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Alistair said:

That's pretty shit

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19

Original interview is in the next tweet.

The Tories have learnt from the 2017 Momentum campaign.

It's probably going to get 10x as many views because of this. I'm going to call it red bus syndrome.

Yep. I am afraid that it's a case of 'as ye sow, so ye shall reap'. The Labour/Momentum videos attacking Theresa May in 2017 were absolutely vile, and went largely under the radar because they used Facebook to distribute them.

Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

But you Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear and would never happen because we held all the cards and the EU needed us more than we needed them.

Why waste money on something that Leave said would never happen?

Million-to-one, wasn't it?

Indeed, Hammond should be praised for his prudence.

Cookie

Peter_the_Punter said:

DeClare said:

Boris's home city too really, after all he was elected mayor there twice.

He was elected as a pro-business pro-EU Mayor.

My very left-wing sister-in-law who lived in London during his mayoralty finds the criticism of him as an extremist absurd because he was mayor and nothing bad or extreme happened. She's still not going to vote for him - because she's left wing. But an indication that among Londoners, perhaps the characterisation of him as an extremist doesn't stick so easily.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, there is a possibility that Labour's discipline collapses if we see more regional polling like this.

Might become a vicious circle for Labour.

nico67

This YouGov poll is better for Labour than at the same point before the last general election .

They had a 5 point lead then , this time they have a 10 point lead . Although things are different now re the background to that election I still expect Labour to increase their share of the vote in London over the coming weeks .

Peter_the_Punter

anothernick said:

Roger said:

I don't sense Corbyn is doing that badly. There's always a lag in the polls and Johnson has given Corbyn a Christmas present he couldn't have dreamed of. He can promise whatever he wants knowing that the Tories can never claim his offers lack prudence. Free child care
four day week TV licences nationalised railway free education
......and his Robin Hood policies will be popular.

I was at a city fund manager's client presentation the other day at which they opined that there was little to choose between the parties in terms of economic policy, all want to raise public spending back to 1970s levels and Labour's magic money tree was only very slightly larger than that of the Tories.

Neither money tree is as big as the one funding Brexit.

Cookie

DecrepitJohnL said:

The broadcasting neutrality rules are hugely important.

But they do not cover videos on social media, increasingly used by all parties, and the Conservative Party has recently hired a New Zealand firm to make unregulated attack videos.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-s-conservatives-hire-kiwi-gurus-who-worked-on-morrison-s-shock-win-20191008-p52yia.html

ETA: and see earlier in this thread for an example of this already happening.

Then they are finally catching up with Labour, whose official or unofficial attack videos and memes have been all over facebook for some time.

Roger

Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

TheScreamingEagles

I mean I should also remember Hammond was banking on the Leaver assurances that Prosecco makers and German car manufacturers would ensure Frau Merkel would give us a good deal.

No Deal was never on the table.

HYUFD

The LDs taking Labpur votes in London and the Brexit Party taking Labour votes in the North and Wales will lead to Tory gains even if the Tories vote stands still or sees a slight decline as this poll shows

Richard_Nabavi

DecrepitJohnL said:

Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.

NeilVW

Apologies if already covered, but I asked YouGov when they planned to release their MRP model for the GE, and they said two weeks before polling day, but this was subject to change.

dyedwoolie

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, there is a possibility that Labour's discipline collapses if we see more regional polling like this.

Might become a vicious circle for Labour.

I think the discipline will hold unless and until a 2017 recovery fails to materialize in the polls

numbertwelve

Roger said:

Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

But you Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear and would never happen because we held all the cards and the EU needed us more than we needed them.

Why waste money on something that Leave said would never happen?

Nope you are lying again TSE. Some of us have said all along that every type of Leave was a possibility. Indeed the very fact I was pushing so hard for an EEA Leave was because others were advocating WTO Brexits.

If you are going to take part in these arguments at least try to avoid telling porkies.

HYUFD

Alistair said:

That's pretty shit

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19

Original interview is in the next tweet.

The Boris campaign will be ruthless with Corbyn Labour, the May campaign was not and it showed.

JBriskinindyref2

Roger said:

Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

I think you've just proved that Labour are the real nasty party.

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

LOL! And what negotiating position exactly did Boris have? Abject surrender to the EU's original offer, so desperate was he having boxed himself in to his brain-dead self-imposed deadline.

Changing the discussion Richard. Poor show. Clearly because you have no answer for the main point which is that Hammond did all he could to hinder Brexit negotiations whilst Chancellor.

nico67

I thought Corbyn was great today. Completely at ease and looked to be enjoying himself . I’m no fan of his but take him out of the Commons and he’s a different person .

dyedwoolie

numbertwelve said:

Roger said:

Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.

They are going for the inverted 2017, key it all up for the latter stages rather than burn out early

Worth noting labour have a couple weeks less this time to close the gap

KentRising

numbertwelve said:

Roger said:

Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.

Eerily reminiscent of 2017. The Tories fire the starting gun, then are nowhere to be seen.

Peter_the_Punter

Cookie said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

DeClare said:

Boris's home city too really, after all he was elected mayor there twice.

He was elected as a pro-business pro-EU Mayor.

My very left-wing sister-in-law who lived in London during his mayoralty finds the criticism of him as an extremist absurd because he was mayor and nothing bad or extreme happened. She's still not going to vote for him - because she's left wing. But an indication that among Londoners, perhaps the characterisation of him as an extremist doesn't stick so easily.

That's fair enough but I would not have voted for him if he had indicated he was anti-Eu, or dismissive of business. I am sure I am not alone in this respect.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

LOL! And what negotiating position exactly did Boris have? Abject surrender to the EU's original offer, so desperate was he having boxed himself in to his brain-dead self-imposed deadline.

The EU originally offered a unilateral exit from any special arrangements for Northern Ireland? When did they originally offer this, or are you making up nonsense because you are too far down the rabbit hole to admit Boris did better than you expected?

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.

Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.

Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

He is no loss.

But you Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear and would never happen because we held all the cards and the EU needed us more than we needed them.

Why waste money on something that Leave said would never happen?

Nope you are lying again TSE. Some of us have said all along that every type of Leave was a possibility. Indeed the very fact I was pushing so hard for an EEA Leave was because others were advocating WTO Brexits.

If you are going to take part in these arguments at least try to avoid telling porkies.

I'm talking about the Leave campaign, not no marks like you on the internet.

Richard_Nabavi

Richard_Tyndall said:

Changing the discussion Richard. Poor show. Clearly because you have no answer for the main point which is that Hammond did all he could to hinder Brexit negotiations whilst Chancellor.

How can I have an answer to a point which is unmitigated garbage? When he was in government we had a very successful Brexit negotiation and would have left the EU on March 29th, if the nuttier leavers, chancers and a well-known careerist hadn't torpedoed things.

Roger

What a piece of work Andrew Bridgen is! Listen to his interview on the 5 o'clock news with Evan Davis explaining how he's a self made man in a mining constituency. A real 18th century cotton baron! That'll get played more than Rees Mogg.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm

at 17. 09 why hes born to rule!

RobD

nico67 said:

This YouGov poll is better for Labour than at the same point before the last general election .

They had a 5 point lead then , this time they have a 10 point lead . Although things are different now re the background to that election I still expect Labour to increase their share of the vote in London over the coming weeks .

Do you have the absolute figures in both cases?

RobD

KentRising said:

numbertwelve said:

Roger said:

Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.

Eerily reminiscent of 2017. The Tories fire the starting gun, then are nowhere to be seen.

Their launch is tomorrow.

KentRising

RobD said:

KentRising said:

numbertwelve said:

Roger said:

Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.

Eerily reminiscent of 2017. The Tories fire the starting gun, then are nowhere to be seen.

Their launch is tomorrow.

Fair enough but in the days between the HoC voting for an election and tomorrow, they've let Labour build up a head of steam. Again.

Ploppikins

What % of voters would need to be willing to vote tactically between LD & LAB to deprive the Tories of a majority? It must be quite high.

Gabs2

Have we ever had an election with a former Chancellor, former Home Secretary and former Foreign Secretary all stepped down?

rural_voter

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.

Tell them to vote tactically anti-Tory if they live in the ~100-150 marginals, or they'll let in a Nasty Party govt. featuring ministers who want to send the poor to the workhouse (if not 'put them down'). There's very little risk of a Corbyn govt., only a Lab/LD/SNP pact.

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

The EU originally offered a unilateral exit from any special arrangements for Northern Ireland? When did they originally offer this, or are you making up nonsense because you are too far down the rabbit hole to admit Boris did better than you expected?

They offered almost exactly what Boris agreed to as their opening offer, with Michel Barnier making a big play about de-dramatising the regulatory requirements. True, at the end they gave Boris a fig-leaf of a theoretical unilateral exit from the NI arrangement, but no-one on this earth, literally no-one, thinks it's an exit which can ever actually happen in practice, so it's not exactly a major concession. The most significant thing from their point of view is that it removes the original backstop, which was so advantageous to us.

RobD

KentRising said:

RobD said:

KentRising said:

numbertwelve said:

Roger said:

Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.

Eerily reminiscent of 2017. The Tories fire the starting gun, then are nowhere to be seen.

Their launch is tomorrow.

Fair enough but in the days between the HoC voting for an election and tomorrow, they've let Labour build up a head of steam. Again.

I guess the parties agreed a schedule for their election launches? Only fair to not have the other parties butting in.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, that's unnecessarily harsh.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1191768035260014598

DecrepitJohnL

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.

The Grenfell fire came a week after the election, so you might be misremembering.

Richard_Nabavi

rural_voter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.

Tell them to vote tactically anti-Tory if they live in the ~100-150 marginals, or they'll let in a Nasty Party govt. featuring ministers who want to send the poor to the workhouse (if not 'put them down'). There's very little risk of a Corbyn govt., only a Lab/LD/SNP pact.

No-one of integrity should vote Labour for as long as it is run by anti-Semitic, terrorist-supporting, economy-destroying Corbyn.

Stark_Dawning

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1191768035260014598

Who are these drips at the Treasury? Bring back Hammond!

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, that's unnecessarily harsh.

Well Richard usually resorts to insults rather than substantive points so I decided to get my retaliation in first as well as the substantive points.

Richard_Nabavi

DecrepitJohnL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.

The Grenfell fire came a week after the election, so you might be misremembering.

Ah yes, I am misremembering the timing, but the videos didn't stop after the election.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Changing the discussion Richard. Poor show. Clearly because you have no answer for the main point which is that Hammond did all he could to hinder Brexit negotiations whilst Chancellor.

How can I have an answer to a point which is unmitigated garbage? When he was in government we had a very successful Brexit negotiation and would have left the EU on March 29th, if the nuttier leavers, chancers and a well-known careerist hadn't torpedoed things.

We got a terrible deal with an unacceptable backstop. We were told under him removing the backstop was never going to be an option.

Boris removed Hammonds intransigence to prepare properly and suddenly the backstop was able to be removed. Funny that!

RobD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1191768035260014598

If they aren't doing it evenhandedly, they shouldn't be doing it.