Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ten Lib Dem seats to watch

123457»

Comments

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:


    And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    Nonetheless the Tories, if they were wise and genuine about addressing racism in their own ranks, should have an inquiry before any problem gets as bad as has happened in Labour.

    They could, for instance, follow the excellent advice set out here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
    I agree.
    Which is a good thing.
    But will it bother you when, almost inevitably, they don’t ?
    Johnson has already resiled from the promise he made - live on TV - to institute such an inquiry during the campaign for the leadership.

    Probably safe to assume that nothing will be done - until the stench grows and becomes unbearable.

    The Tories are somewhere between stages 1 - 4 of Cyclefree's 10 Stages of an Investigation:

    1. People turn a blind eye.
    2. People can't believe it.
    3. People refuse to believe it.
    4. People accept that something has gone wrong but insist that it is limited to "1 or 2 bad apples".
  • Have we noted this?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/brexit-party-chairman-richard-tice-expected-to-stand-in-hartlepool

    As an aside, I was amused by this bit at the end:

    Jonathan Brash, a local Labour party official, said: “Hartlepool doesn’t need southern elites … being parachuted into our town to tell us what to do. He doesn’t live here, he’s barely even visited Hartlepool.

    “What does Richard Tice know about Hartlepool and challenges facing local residents? What does he know about child poverty, the devastating impact of public service cuts, what it’s like to live in communities where there are too few police officers and too few jobs?

    “He doesn’t know our town, he doesn’t know our history, he doesn’t know our people and they will not accept being used for this cheap political stunt. Hartlepool needs an MP that puts people before privilege, who puts Hartlepool first.”


    That's an official of the Hartlepool Labour Party, the one which had Peter Mandelson as its MP for 12 years.

    Perhaps that is why he feels so strongly about it....he is unlikely to have had any say about Mandelson but can speak freely about Tice.
    Yes, I just thought it was very amusing in Hartlepool of all constituencies!

    More significant are the implications of Richard Tice standing (if confirmed). It means the BXP think they have a good chance here, and maybe they might bring it off. Certainly it's a good target for them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    New thread
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    If any journalists are planning to head to marginals near Sheffield (NE Derbyshire, Bassetlaw) they'll be needing an ark shortly.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    viewcode said:

    The analysis by Stuart Dickson relates more to the part of the Fat Laird's seat which was formerly part of Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber. I can assure you that in Ross-shire the Fat Laird is despised and most especially by locals who adored Charles Kennedy. However the younger generation are big Nat voters so as I said the Fat Laird will hold on. For the record, a large part of the Tory vote is not incomer, it is proudly native and unionist but that doesnt fit within the SNP mantra which is very much anti-English and hearing some of the anti-English remarks from SNP supporters is blood curdling. A popular one is "when we get independence, people like you will be sent back south of the border"! Not quite burning English holiday homes as happened in Wales in the 1970s but sometimes not far from it. Even I got accused of being an Englishman a few weeks ago on Facebook by a fanatical SNP supporter and I am a 22x great grandson of Robert the Bruce! (and a descendant of Edward I of England as are all descendants of the Mackenzie of Kintail family)

    Christ, a Scottish Charles, that's all we need.
    The Families have been with us for centuries past (cue lightning bolt and thunderclap)... :)
    Not "The Families" again! It makes @Charles sound as if he's part of the Mafia.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    Barnesian said:

    On Sporting Index, I see the PC spread has been suspended and the LD spread has gone from 41-46 to 42-47.

    Sporting Index suspends when it sneezes?
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    edited November 2019

    alb1on said:

    Right. So if I disagree with your take on this I’m excusing racism.

    The issue in the Conservative Party should absolutely be fully investigated. But it is nothing like the anti-semitism that infects the Labour Party from top to toe. The leader of the Conservative party hasn’t liked anti-Islamic graffiti or tropes, he hasn’t endorsed or associated consistently with anti-Islamic groups, he doesn’t have legions of followers who sledge Muslim followers and members with rank islamophobia when they dare to criticise him. Muslim Conservative groups haven’t totally distanced themselves from the party nor started to put guards on the doors of mosques as a consequence.

    Reducto ad absurdium might make you feel better about confirming your political choices and view of the world but it doesn’t make it true.

    Again you make assumptions -'confirming your political choices'. I am not and never have been a Labour supporter or member (or a supporter or member of anything even more to the left). What I despise are hypocrites who are prepared to overlook the same offence in one party whilst condemning it in another.

    If Corbyn had made reference to 'letter boxes' he would have been hounded from office. If Corbyn had promised enquiries and then kicked them into the long grass he would (and has been) condemned. If Corbyn had allowed a senior MP to raise the old BNP trope of Islamophobia is not racism it would be taken as evidence of a deep malaise.

    The Labour Party have a major problem with antisemitism. The Conservative Party have a similar problem with Islamophobia. Defending one whilst condemning the other simply marks you as a partisan political shill who seems to be learning from the examples of Trump and his lovers of false news.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    alb1on said:

    alb1on said:

    Right. So if I disagree with your take on this I’m excusing racism.

    The issue in the Conservative Party should absolutely be fully investigated. But it is nothing like the anti-semitism that infects the Labour Party from top to toe. The leader of the Conservative party hasn’t liked anti-Islamic graffiti or tropes, he hasn’t endorsed or associated consistently with anti-Islamic groups, he doesn’t have legions of followers who sledge Muslim followers and members with rank islamophobia when they dare to criticise him. Muslim Conservative groups haven’t totally distanced themselves from the party nor started to put guards on the doors of mosques as a consequence.

    Reducto ad absurdium might make you feel better about confirming your political choices and view of the world but it doesn’t make it true.

    Apologies for failed post. Should read;

    Again you make assumptions -'confirming your political choices'. I am not and never have been a Labour supporter or member (or a supporter or member of anything even more to the left). What I despise are hypocrites who are prepared to overlook the same offence in one party whilst condemning it in another.

    If Corbyn had made reference to 'letter boxes' he would have been hounded from office. If Corbyn had promised enquiries and then kicked them into the long grass he would (and has been) condemned. If Corbyn had allowed a senior MP to raise the old BNP trope of Islamophobia is not racism it would be taken as evidence of a deep malaise.

    The Labour Party have a major problem with antisemitism. The Conservative Party have a similar problem with Islamophobia. Defending one whilst condemning the other simply marks you as a partisan political shill who seems to be learning from the examples of Trump and his lovers of false news.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,088
    edited November 2019

    Cookie said:

    Well fine. But 80% of electricity from renewables by 2030 will happen anyway on current trends. Market forces will see to that. I can get quite boringly messianic on the subject.
    Yes, it's a disappointingly low-wattage pledge. Nothing on the sectors of the economy that will be harder to decarbonise like agriculture, transport, construction, industry. And insulation is all well and good, but you still need to do something about the gas used for space heating/cooking.
    IMO the hardest one to decarbonise will be existing housing, as that will involve voters spending money. Needs eg more expensive council tax and Stamp Duty for <EPC C homes, and higher energy prices via a simple Carbon Tax based on the primary use of C02.

    It will be a relatively small step to go zero carbon for newbuild, since they are already at roughly EPC 85 and 100 is zero carbon by definition.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Cyclefree said:

    viewcode said:

    The analysis by Stuart Dickson relates more to the part of the Fat Laird's seat which was formerly part of Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber. I can assure you that in Ross-shire the Fat Laird is despised and most especially by locals who adored Charles Kennedy. However the younger generation are big Nat voters so as I said the Fat Laird will hold on. For the record, a large part of the Tory vote is not incomer, it is proudly native and unionist but that doesnt fit within the SNP mantra which is very much anti-English and hearing some of the anti-English remarks from SNP supporters is blood curdling. A popular one is "when we get independence, people like you will be sent back south of the border"! Not quite burning English holiday homes as happened in Wales in the 1970s but sometimes not far from it. Even I got accused of being an Englishman a few weeks ago on Facebook by a fanatical SNP supporter and I am a 22x great grandson of Robert the Bruce! (and a descendant of Edward I of England as are all descendants of the Mackenzie of Kintail family)

    Christ, a Scottish Charles, that's all we need.
    The Families have been with us for centuries past (cue lightning bolt and thunderclap)... :)
    Not "The Families" again! It makes @Charles sound as if he's part of the Mafia.
    Maybe he is.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    NEW THREAD
  • Cyclefree said:


    ...
    Never mind unlocking Britain’s potential. A return to some old-fashioned decency would be welcome.

    Was it ever there or was it just a front? Has Brexit unmasked closeted hypocrisy and shown us as we really are?
    The evidence is that the British are amongst the least xenophobic on the planet. Concern about immigration and other issues like that are lower in the UK than in almost every other EU nation and have fallen in the UK post-Brexit.
    Strange then that so many people seem to feel unsettled and insecure with many leaving. Or maybe those 3m that have no idea whether to stay or go are just Home Office fantasies

    Obviously the Windrush scandal never happened in the Thompson universe, and Jewish people have no reason to be worried either. The European medical staff that are fleeing the NHS and causing staffing crises, universities struggling to fill posts with highly skilled foreign staff, etc, etc.

    We are seen as xenophobes and those who have choices about where to take their skills are avoiding us. No doubt you will say that plenty still want to come here and you would be right but they do not tend to be the highly educated, highly skilled people that the Brexiteers told us they would permit to enter the Brexit Paradise.
    Perhaps you could put some numbers to those statements you make ?

    How about starting with The European medical staff that are fleeing the NHS and causing staffing crises ?

    Given that employment in the NHS has increased by over a hundred thousand in the last three years:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/g7fg/lms
    What do numbers matter? Perception is everything....
    Numbers are reality, perception is the prejudice people chose to wallow in.
This discussion has been closed.