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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Unite to Remain Alliance: The seats where one of the Green
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Unite to Remain Alliance: The seats where one of the Greens/the LDs or PC will be given a clear run
The LDS and Greens are standing aside for Plaid Cymru in the following Welsh seats:
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I guess we are about to find out.
On GE news I wonder if the Tories realised they'll never be able out splurge labour.
Very misleading.
In only four of the last ten GB polls reported by Britain Elects has Labour dropped 15 or more points below 41%.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
It's an offer the electorate will accept.
I see Austin was joined by Mann for a joint presser.......
Quite surprised at why Cannock Chase is included in the pact though - seems to me the last place that is ever likely to vote Green!
Coupled with Mr. Meeks analysis previously, I'm feeling good about my lib dems under 40 seats bet.
Are these jews never satisfied?!
That may be of interest in the leafy constituencies they crave.
The interesting seats are where the LDs are standing down — and it looks like the majority of them are not Conservative seats.
I would think the answer to both is no. If you agree to cooperate to help take your neighbour's kids to school, you are not necessarily also agreeing a "swinging" arrangement between the households.
However, I could see it having an impact in a couple of seats. The Greens were second on 28% in 2015 in Bristol West. It's a volatile, student heavy seat. That may have an impact. And I suspect the LDs will see a small benefit in London.
High taxation policy will not go down well.
It might make a little bit of difference to a couple of seats. The message of cooperation is potentially the real crux of the strategy. A grown up cooperative party versus to tribal blue and red parties. It works well for me.
Corbyn Labour thus risks getting crushed between Leavers going Tory or Brexit Party and Remainers going LD, Green, SNP or Plaid
"However, in the event the results of a privately commissioned poll are made public as a result of actions by the organisation [its employees or agents] that commissioned the survey, such results will be deemed to have entered the public domain and procedures outlined above will be followed in respect of those findings. The client and survey organisation may keep other findings (that have not been published) confidential except where such findings are relevant to the topics covered in questions that have entered the public domain or where the question order is relevant to the published results. "
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/objects-and-rules/
So I guess the question is whether a poll in one constituency is *relevant* to a poll in another question. My guess would be that it is not. This is surely an area that needs looking at, with all this stuff going round about tactical voting. If you do enough polls, eventually you'll get a wide range of results.
They could forget Kingston and Surbiton, come to that.
It seems that they're dribbling the polls out to maximise their newsworthiness, so it's hard to read too much into where has not been released yet. (And I also suspect they'll not bother polling in their existing seats, because (a) they might get bad news, and (b) it costs money to poll.)
People saw the £350m on the bus and thought of it as a plausible number, people are looking at McDonnell's 150 billion headline number and are just seeing 'spend, spend, spend' and let's be honest it is a ridiculous number for the public that just doesn't ring true (even if an economic assessment broke down the numbers and suggested it to be achievable).
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1192406215906779137
But if you want to convince people in constituency X that you are the main alternative to the Tories, and you have a poll that says that, I'd have thought you'd want to get that message out early and often and cement it in the minds of potential voters.
I'll let you know what I learn in Iowa.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Hence the LDs are fighting on an anti Tory and anti Corbyn Labour ticket in England and Wales and an anti SNP ticket in Scotland
Mike Powell was asked to stand down in Pontypridd after the party entered into an electoral pact with Plaid Cymru and the Green Party.
The deal between the three pro-Remain parties will see them not stand against each other in 60 constituencies across England and Wales.
Mr Powell tells BBC Radio 4's World at One he was first informed about standing aside three weeks ago.
"We had an NEC [national executive committee] meeting last night and basically were told, 'that’s it, you’re not standing'," he says.
But Mr Powell doesn't believe he will split the Remain vote by running in the constituency.
"I think the people deserve to have an opportunity to vote for someone who is going to represent the people of Pontypridd, rather than standing to represent a cause to remove Wales from the United Kingdom," he says - referring to Plaid Cymru's manifesto.
"I know there are an awful lot of members in the Welsh Liberal Democrats who are extremely unhappy with the way these negotiations have been dealt with.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50325109
Corbyn/McDonnell, two white haired blokes slapping each other on the back vs Sajid Javid, a successful British Asian. The optics were quite startling.
Electoral pacts dont mean agreement with other parties policies, if they did agree they would merge not have a pact.
At least the LDs have the remain dividend to offset that.
Apart from that, good idea.
Johnny Marr scotches Smiths reunion rumours: 'Nigel Farage on guitar'
Marr alluded to his political differences with Morrissey, after a fan asked about rumours of a 2020 tour spread by ‘a trusted source’
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2019/nov/07/johnny-marr-morriseey-smiths-reunion-rumours-nigel-farage-on-guitar
But what they do is a bit of an academic question given that there were fewer than 1000 Plaid voters in Cardiff Central in 2017 and Labour won a 17000 majority. They could all vote Tory for all the difference it will make to Labour.
In Wales, the LibDems and Plaid Cymru appeal to very, very different segments of the electorate.
Plaid Cymru supporters in Western Montgomeryshire (probably ~ 2000)
will not vote for the LibDems Londoner import.
If the LibDems wanted this seat not to return a Tory, they should have found someone more local.
On the other hand, the 2017 surge didn't really gather momentum until after the manifestos were published, and that is still in our future.
Pursued by the Tories' sinister agents, Princess Jo Heidi races home aboard her battle-bus, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her deposit and restore Freedom of Movement to the Continent…"
That said it's a no brainer for PC to give it up in exchange for say Llanelli.
Meanwhile, both Labour (who were a fairly close second last time) and the LibDems (who have been strong here in the past and who are very strong in local elections) will fancy their chances here. Clearly they could knock each other out, allowing the Tories to win again, but this is far from certain. Note that Jo Swinson swung her battlebus through here yesterday; the LibDems will be trying hard, and I think have a much better chance than would appear from the raw 2017 figures. The Greens aren't a big presence here but their standing aside for the LibDems will help if it's close.
"Despite the Greens standing down in 31 seats in 2017 to give Labour a free run, that was not reciprocated and Labour will not be standing aside in any seats at this election."
https://greenworld.org.uk/article/greens-come-arrangement-uniting-remain-vote
Labour thinks it has a divine right to the centre-left vote. I hope this election is a wake-up call to them.