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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading for a majority
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In 1989 Euros the Greens managed 2.3m votes.
After 30 years of campaigning, and in an era when green issues have come to the fore, culminating in a climate emergency, this year they managed 1.8m votes in the Euros.
Meanwhile a party campaigning on a relatively minor constitutional issue managed 5.2m votes, two months after being created.
It must be disheartening to be in green politics. I admire their dogged determination as much as I admire their asceticism. They should try to sign up that Farage fella, though.
She can't trust Labour on Remain, but avoided explaining why Greens policies are at variance with Lib Dem values.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/exclusive-labour-officials-accused-of-covering-up-mp-hopeful-s-antisemitism-1.492144
How big a crime is it to steal a General Election through breaking the law?
Thinking back to how bearings bank went down, a fraudster asking for money when declaring profits much less than what was asking for given the money despite no income coming in from what he was selling, that occurred because the people who should have picked up on it weren’t stupid, it was just a new world to them and they didn’t understand it, they were out of their depths in terms of monitoring and auditing it.
So what’s stopping betting on and getting involved in GE19 from turning out like a Tour de France, when what you thought was fair and heroic turns out to be unfair and illegal?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-general-election-latest-kate-ramsden-resign-corbyn-israel-child-abuse-a9193926.html
The electoral pact with PC seems to be a little odd.
Equally are they happy with fiscal irresponsibility on a mind-staggering scale, but going to object to Corbyns slightly less, but still wild and irrational spending plans?
The electoral pact with the Greens seems to be a little odd.
Obviously the arguments for having this pact are quite easy to make, but it seems to me that this is a poor choice. in a GE.
He made huge profits on unauthorised trades, then eventually it went bad, then he made it worse by trying to cover the loss.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/10/when-the-betting-markets-got-it-wrong/
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1170798735397412866
You can draw your own conclusions about the ethics of a market-making company with substantial spreads that seeks to deter punters with good track records but who will take large stakes from others.
A line bet forecasts the median a spread bet forecasts the mean.
Social network says policy of allowing misinformation opens up political debate
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/07/facebook-we-would-let-tories-run-doctored-starmer-video-as-ad
Here comes the winter weather with snow in the north
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32433723
It all looks a bit mild now, compared to the running open sewer of politics circa 2019.
As far as the 2019 GE is concerned, I'm on a BUY of Conservative seats at 325. As I've said here before, I think as a contest it's already over and the question is whether the Conservatives win big or very big. Obviously I hadn't bargained on the campaigning ineptitude of CCHQ but Labour are worse so I see very little downside at 325 but if the Conservative share starts to collapse I'd cash out.
I really don't know about Labour and suspect the spread of 210-218 isn't far off the truth. I agree the LD seat total looks like a SELL at 42 but a couple of constituency polls and the strong targeting makes me think the Party could easily end up in the mid 30s so the downside is there and the upside may not be much.
I don't know enough about Scotland or Wales to make even an uninformed bet
"Our approach is different. We will expand the economy, by providing a strong and measured increase in spending. Spending money creates jobs. Money spent on railway electrification means jobs, not only in construction, but also in the industries that supply the equipment - as well as faster and better trains. If we increase pensions and child benefits, it means more spending power for the elderly and for parents, more bought in shops, more orders for goods, and more jobs in the factories. More spending means that the economy will begin to expand: and growth will provide the new wealth for higher wages and better living standards, the right climate for industry to invest, and more resources for the public services.
..........
But the scale of borrowing will not be nearly as great as the increase in spending. Spending generates new income and new savings. As the economy recovers we shall be able to spend less on keeping people unemployed. And when people get jobs they will also pay income tax and spend more on goods which are taxed. Last year benefit payments, and tax revenues foregone - because of unemployment - cost the nation some £17,000 million. There are also important savings to be made by cancelling the present government 5 massive expenditure programmes on Trident and on PWR nuclear reactors."
http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1983/1983-labour-manifesto.shtml
Is there fairness and legality in the harvesting and use of data on us, the people, in this election? Are those policing the law around these databases and systems out of their depth in what is going on?
Overblown.
Or is it a CON of love?
Yes Ipswich next season normally we beat them!
My apologies if it's telling granny how to suck eggs but I do hope you have in your notebook 'Buy WDs at Fakenham when going heavy'.
Do they really pay people to do that kind of thing?
Con 310
LD 135
Lab 130
SNP 50
PC 5
Grn 1
Ind 1
NI 18
Lingfield is another venue when you can buy distances all day when the ground is Heavy - they go on Tuesday but it's a 6-race card with a Polytrack Bumper so an element of caution advised..
Of course there's fairness in harvesting data. Everything you see, hear, or feel is available to you to make decisions. If you had an army of scribes stick that in a database then that'd be fine.
We're just not used to people having total recollection of what happened last night. (Or on the shopping trip, or whether you went for large fries)
Zadawi answers “you’ll have to ask him”
I once got burned by setting a £200 stop-loss, which they didn't adequately explain was by point only and not absolute.
So I actually lost £420 which they were very aggressive in chasing to collect.
8 years ago on social media they liked a fantastic goal, but that was scored by the evil rivals of the constituency they delighted last week to be selected for, in this febrile bubble once that like is discovered they’re toast. 😏
I am sure the traders know all about these places but there seems to be no limit to how heavy the ground can get in Norfolk and Pembrokeshire, and how slowly the horses can come home.
Kamala Harris is reducing the size of her operation to focus on Iowa. She's not going to win (or even be top three) in Iowa. Cory Booker is not going to make the December debate.
After Iowa, there will be at most four candidates left: Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg. And if Buttigieg doesn't make the top two, it'll be three candidates.
That pretty much ensures there will be either (a) a clear favourite by the end of Super Tuesday, or (b) a long drawn out head-to-head between two candidates, one from the left wing (Sanders or Warren) and one from moderate one (Biden or Buttigieg).
I think this is probably for a number of reasons. First off, in 2017 the Greens were ahead of the Liberal Democrats. Admittedly, it was by 815 to 794 but as Churchill said, a majority of one is a majority. Second, the Liberal Democrat organisation round here is only just emerging from years of being effectively moribund. They also hadn’t picked their candidate afaik. Meanwhile the Greens are small, but well-organised, vocal and prominent. They also have in Paul Woodhead a local candidate who will be standing in his third election. Third, the obvious Liberal Democrat targets are all in Birmingham and that is where they will doubtless want to focus local energy (unless they take leave of their senses and target Lichfield and Sutton Coldfield).
At the same time, I think it’s an error. I would have voted Liberal Democrat without a qualm, but I am almost certainly not going to vote Green, less because of their views than because they have nothing useful to say on a national level. So it is not going to have he effect they hoped.
It also leaves me with an extremely difficult decision to make.
The BBC was apparently happy for Nick Conrad to continue to work for them for 5 years as a radio presenter after his controversial comments.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/nov/19/bbc-knickers-on-nick-conrad-rapist-ched-evans
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2019110706/run1m/cfs-0-852.png?06
This chart will change A LOT in the next five weeks so don't take as gospel. The short term remains cold and unsettled through next week so not much fun for canvassers or deliverers.
All the 'the BBC are monitoring your internet' tinfoil hat nonsense aimed at Kirsty Strickland should have seen him booted out.
Sky reporting that it came up in the selection meeting, but he still got the nod.
One of the other candidates was a female Counterterrorism expert, for goodness' sake. Why not pick her over some two bit shock jock with a history of unwise comments on rape cases?
But amidst it all we have PB. It’s early days, but PB is having an excellent election so far, some of the headers have been better than you’ll get in a daily paper, and the banter is fun, informed, informative, and largely respectful so far. 👍🏻
Though Byronic will be a miss when he goes to Antarctica for the Playgirl shoot 🙁
I like to imagine she was going to say "yeah we had a proper piss up when thatcher died", had second thoughts and conjured up hitler, an individual whose reputation it is literally impossible to traduce.