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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

There are four main factors in an election turnout: how important voters view the poll, how close they expect the result to be locally, how close they think it’ll be nationally, and what the prevailing local culture is towards voting.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • The December 2016 Richmond By-Election that you refer was in a very strong remain seat. If Remainers are more motivated to vote than leavers that could have a big impact
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Usually enjoy a David Herdson article, double his pay per article!
  • The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1192939050417737733?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SamLowry60/status/1192939998888288262?s=20
  • The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1192939050417737733?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SamLowry60/status/1192939998888288262?s=20

    Hmm, I dunno, I mean people should stay away from anything that looks like a threat of violence especially in the current climate, but that's not really what that meme is about... OTOH the crying face makes it slightly more disturbing than it should be...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1192939050417737733?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SamLowry60/status/1192939998888288262?s=20

    Hmm, I dunno, I mean people should stay away from anything that looks like a threat of violence especially in the current climate, but that's not really what that meme is about... OTOH the crying face makes it slightly more disturbing than it should be...
    How in any way is it acceptable to have an image with a gun pointed at a politican's head, especially after what happened during the referendum?
  • RobD said:


    How in any way is it acceptable to have an image with a gun pointed at a politican's head, especially after what happened during the referendum?

    Mimetics. Be careful though.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Actions not words, the Israeli government is a far bigger Muslim killer than vice versa.

    Also in reference to your we should be concerned about all minority communities, you clearly ignore discrimination against other minority communities, you somehow turn a woman who is complaining about discrimination laughing at a tweet that included among other things Blairites getting into the sea as you being the victim, or more likely you know full well what you are doing and are trying to void talk about Conservative discrimination by somehow accusing the Muslim woman of anti semitism.

    Your a fucking joke mate, I can see why you are so eager to vote for bank robbers, post boxes and piccaninnies Johnson.

    Tens of thousands of Israelis have died fighting for their survival against Arab regimes who united to crush Israel from the first day of its existence. Had they succeeded, there would have undoubtedly been a second mass genocide of the Jewish people, less than a decade after the first one wiped out six million of us.

    "Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.

    If this woman wanted to be credible she could acknowledge how wrong the death celebration talk was, but she doesn't. She actually gets upset that there was criticism over it. As for "trying to void talk", the level of projection is unreal. The whole "what about Tory Islamophobia" narrative only emerged to avoid answering questions on the institutional anti-Semitism in Labour.

    I have not yet decided who I will vote for. Most likely I will go Lib Dem or abstain. Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative every time the ugliness of far left scum like you comes pouring out. Corbynism is the ugly underbelly of the left, which has infiltrated and rotted from within the Labour movement with a sick nastiness that will destroy the party. I look forward to the day the Liberal Democrats overtake you and banish your types to the fringes where you belong.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative

    We'd never have guessed you would somehow end up at this unlikely outcome.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Gabs2 said:

    Actions not words, the Israeli government is a far bigger Muslim killer than vice versa.

    Tens of thousands of Israelis have died fighting for their survival against Arab regimes who united to crush Israel from the first day of its existence. Had they succeeded, there would have undoubtedly been a second mass genocide of the Jewish people, less than a decade after the first one wiped out six million of us.

    "Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.

    If this woman wanted to be credible she could acknowledge how wrong the death celebration talk was, but she doesn't. She actually gets upset that there was criticism over it. As for "trying to void talk", the level of projection is unreal. The whole "what about Tory Islamophobia" narrative only emerged to avoid answering questions on the institutional anti-Semitism in Labour.

    I have not yet decided who I will vote for. Most likely I will go Lib Dem or abstain. Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative every time the ugliness of far left scum like you comes pouring out. Corbynism is the ugly underbelly of the left, which has infiltrated and rotted from within the Labour movement with a sick nastiness that will destroy the party. I look forward to the day the Liberal Democrats overtake you and banish your types to the fringes where you belong.
    Sorry to spoil your fun mate but far right pieces of crap like yourself are the ones being pushed to the fringes, young people aren't up for old bigoted views any more.

    I shared the YouGov polling earlier with Labour vote among 18-24. The 'but the Muslims' from you scummy far right pieces of crap doesn't wash with the younger generation. The young will see you off you bigoted gammon types.

    I realise the Muslim woman is annoying and think she can complain about the racism but you know better right, she just shut up and be grateful we let her type live in this country, how dare she criticise the almighty Blair and world hero Netanyahu, now your lane BAME girl.

    You are scum mate, absolute scum I'm glad my generations and the ones below are rejecting the hatred and racism you support.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Actions not words, the Israeli government is a far bigger Muslim killer than vice versa.

    Tens of thousands of Israelis have died fighting for their survival against Arab regimes who united to crush Israel from the first day of its existence. Had they succeeded, there would have undoubtedly been a second mass genocide of the Jewish people, less than a decade after the first one wiped out six million of us.

    "Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.

    If this woman wanted to be credible she could acknowledge how wrong the death celebration talk was, but she doesn't. She actually gets upset that there was criticism over it. As for "trying to void talk", the level of projection is unreal. The whole "what about Tory Islamophobia" narrative only emerged to avoid answering questions on the institutional anti-Semitism in Labour.

    I have not yet decided who I will vote for. Most likely I will go Lib Dem or abstain. Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative every time the ugliness of far left scum like you comes pouring out. Corbynism is the ugly underbelly of the left, which has infiltrated and rotted from within the Labour movement with a sick nastiness that will destroy the party. I look forward to the day the Liberal Democrats overtake you and banish your types to the fringes where you belong.
    .....far right pieces of crap like yourself....old bigoted views ..... you scummy far right pieces of crap..... you bigoted gammon types.....You are scum mate, absolute scum....hatred and racism you support.
    Very persuasive. I'm sold!
  • Anyone who doubts that the far left is more interested in winning the faction fight within the Labour party than a general election, should look at how it has treated Sally Gimson, the Labour candidate in Bassetlaw.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/sally-gimsons-deselection-and-the-battle-for-labours-soul/
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Actions not words, the Israeli government is a far bigger Muslim killer than vice versa.

    Tens of thousands of Israelis have died fighting for their survival against Arab regimes who united to crush Israel from the first day of its existence. Had they succeeded, there would have undoubtedly been a second mass genocide of the Jewish people, less than a decade after the first one wiped out six million of us.

    "Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.

    I have not yet decided who I will vote for. Most likely I will go Lib Dem or abstain. Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative every time the ugliness of far left scum like you comes pouring out. Corbynism is the ugly underbelly of the left, which has infiltrated and rotted from within the Labour movement with a sick nastiness that will destroy the party. I look forward to the day the Liberal Democrats overtake you and banish your types to the fringes where you belong.
    Sorry to spoil your fun mate but far right pieces of crap like yourself are the ones being pushed to the fringes, young people aren't up for old bigoted views any more.

    I shared the YouGov polling earlier with Labour vote among 18-24. The 'but the Muslims' from you scummy far right pieces of crap doesn't wash with the younger generation. The young will see you off you bigoted gammon types.

    I realise the Muslim woman is annoying and think she can complain about the racism but you know better right, she just shut up and be grateful we let her type live in this country, how dare she criticise the almighty Blair and world hero Netanyahu, now your lane BAME girl.

    You are scum mate, absolute scum I'm glad my generations and the ones below are rejecting the hatred and racism you support.
    Yes, the woman seems lovely.

    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1191350655073554432
    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1191397800732442624
    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1180766152039047169

    I have been centre-left my whole life. I have actively campaigned against Netanyahu. But because I am Jewish and protest anti-Semitism, I am far right.

    You are clearly as anti-Semitic as the rest of your far left ilk. The absolute dregs of our political system.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:



    "Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.

    I have not yet decided who I will vote for. Most likely I will go Lib Dem or abstain. Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative every time the ugliness of far left scum like you comes pouring out. Corbynism is the ugly underbelly of the left, which has infiltrated and rotted from within the Labour movement with a sick nastiness that will destroy the party. I look forward to the day the Liberal Democrats overtake you and banish your types to the fringes where you belong.
    Sorry to spoil your fun mate but far right pieces of crap like yourself are the ones being pushed to the fringes, young people aren't up for old bigoted views any more.

    I shared the YouGov polling earlier with Labour vote among 18-24. The 'but the Muslims' from you scummy far right pieces of crap doesn't wash with the younger generation. The young will see you off you bigoted gammon types.

    I realise the Muslim woman is annoying and think she can complain about the racism but you know better right, she just shut up and be grateful we let her type live in this country, how dare she criticise the almighty Blair and world hero Netanyahu, now your lane BAME girl.

    You are scum mate, absolute scum I'm glad my generations and the ones below are rejecting the hatred and racism you support.
    Yes, the woman seems lovely.

    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1191350655073554432
    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1191397800732442624
    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1180766152039047169

    I have been centre-left my whole life. I have actively campaigned against Netanyahu. But because I am Jewish and protest anti-Semitism, I am far right.

    You are clearly as anti-Semitic as the rest of your far left ilk. The absolute dregs of our political system.
    She's worth 50 of you piece of far right crap. Don't give me this bollocks about you being x, y or z to justify your BS either.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268



    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:


    "Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.
    Sorry to spoil your fun mate but far right pieces of crap like yourself are the ones being pushed to the fringes, young people aren't up for old bigoted views any more.

    I shared the YouGov polling earlier with Labour vote among 18-24. The 'but the Muslims' from you scummy far right pieces of crap doesn't wash with the younger generation. The young will see you off you bigoted gammon types.

    I realise the Muslim woman is annoying and think she can complain about the racism but you know better right, she just shut up and be grateful we let her type live in this country, how dare she criticise the almighty Blair and world hero Netanyahu, now your lane BAME girl.

    You are scum mate, absolute scum I'm glad my generations and the ones below are rejecting the hatred and racism you support.
    Yes, the woman seems lovely.

    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1191350655073554432
    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1191397800732442624
    https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1180766152039047169

    I have been centre-left my whole life. I have actively campaigned against Netanyahu. But because I am Jewish and protest anti-Semitism, I am far right.

    You are clearly as anti-Semitic as the rest of your far left ilk. The absolute dregs of our political system.
    She's worth 50 of you piece of far right crap. Don't give me this bollocks about you being x, y or z to justify your BS either.
    And on you go. I have never supported a single far right policy on here and criticized many of them. I have vocally opposed Trump and openly supported Elizabeth Warren. Yet to you I am far right because I am a Jew protesting Labour anti-Semitism. And then you will claim Labour isn't anti-Semitic. The mask has come off.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Gabs2 said:

    Actions not words, the Israeli government is a far bigger Muslim killer than vice versa.

    Tens of thousands of Israelis have died fighting for their survival against Arab regimes who united to crush Israel from the first day of its existence. Had they succeeded, there would have undoubtedly been a second mass genocide of the Jewish people, less than a decade after the first one wiped out six million of us.

    "Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.

    If this woman wanted to be credible she could acknowledge how wrong the death celebration talk was, but she doesn't. She actually gets upset that there was criticism over it. As for "trying to void talk", the level of projection is unreal. The whole "what about Tory Islamophobia" narrative only emerged to avoid answering questions on the institutional anti-Semitism in Labour.

    I have not yet decided who I will vote for. Most likely I will go Lib Dem or abstain. Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative every time the ugliness of far left scum like you comes pouring out. Corbynism is the ugly underbelly of the left, which has infiltrated and rotted from within the Labour movement with a sick nastiness that will destroy the party. I look forward to the day the Liberal Democrats overtake you and banish your types to the fringes where you belong.
    .....far right pieces of crap like yourself....old bigoted views ..... you scummy far right pieces of crap..... you bigoted gammon types.....You are scum mate, absolute scum....hatred and racism you support.
    Very persuasive. I'm sold!
    You'll love Gabs2 posts then... ohh wait just your opponents, my mistake...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Gabs2 said:



    And on you go. I have never supported a single far right policy on here and criticized many of them. I have vocally opposed Trump and openly supported Elizabeth Warren. Yet to you I am far right because I am a Jew protesting Labour anti-Semitism. And then you will claim Labour isn't anti-Semitic. The mask has come off.

    You are apparently lots of things that are useful for you to advocate for the Conservatives, problem is it all melds into one long BS story who knows what parts are true.

    Ahh yes saying Labour isn't anti semitic is anti semitic, genius, almost on the level of if she floats she's a witch, did you need several skinhead mates to help you come up with that formulation or did you think it up all by yourself in between cursing various BAME women for wrong think?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:



    And on you go. I have never supported a single far right policy on here and criticized many of them. I have vocally opposed Trump and openly supported Elizabeth Warren. Yet to you I am far right because I am a Jew protesting Labour anti-Semitism. And then you will claim Labour isn't anti-Semitic. The mask has come off.

    You are apparently lots of things that are useful for you to advocate for the Conservatives, problem is it all melds into one long BS story who knows what parts are true.

    Ahh yes saying Labour isn't anti semitic is anti semitic, genius, almost on the level of if she floats she's a witch, did you need several skinhead mates to help you come up with that formulation or did you think it up all by yourself in between cursing various BAME women for wrong think?
    Now you are accusing a Jew of having skinhead mates. No, you're not anti-Semitic at all.

    I feel I have done enough to show exactly what sort of person you are. No need for me to push this any further so this will be my last reply.
  • As usual an excellent and thought provoking article from David for a Saturday morning. In 24 hours time there will probably have been 1000+ more postings here on PB, especially since we can expect a flurry of opinion polls in around 16-18 hours time.

    I wonder if we will see differential turnouts this time with moderately higher ones in highly marginal seats where opinion is incredibly polarised and lower in "safe" seats where most people not only vote the same way as most of their neighbours but also tend to share their opinions on Brexit, the NHS, law and order etc.

    Living as I do on the most northerly mainland constituency in the UK I can tell you that daylight on polling day is unlikely to be much before 9am and it will be dusk by 3pm. If the weather is dreich meaning very low cloud and heavy rain, it will be more like nearer 10am and getting dark soon after 2pm.

    Normally I would think these factors will suit the Tory Party. We know the older the voter, the more committed they tend to be at exercising their democratic franchise. This time I think it will just be very mixed and it will be interesting to learn what % of the potential turnout in each marginal constituency comprise the postal votes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1192939050417737733?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SamLowry60/status/1192939998888288262?s=20

    Hmm, I dunno, I mean people should stay away from anything that looks like a threat of violence especially in the current climate, but that's not really what that meme is about... OTOH the crying face makes it slightly more disturbing than it should be...
    Two words that show the hypocrisy of Labour:

    Jo Cox.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Two things get brought up by voters on the doorstep, unprompted, time after time.

    We must Brexit.

    We must stop Jeremy Corbyn from getting to 10 Downing Street.

    These two twin drivers will get them to the polling stations, whatever the conditions.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited November 2019

    Two things get brought up by voters on the doorstep, unprompted, time after time.

    We must Brexit.

    We must stop Jeremy Corbyn from getting to 10 Downing Street.

    These two twin drivers will get them to the polling stations, whatever the conditions.

    There was some Labour MP quoted recently saying he'd done loads of knocking up and Brexit wasn't mentioned by voters once. Which is it?! Probably somewhere in between. Latest Ashcroft focus group on ConHome not pretty reading for the Tories:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/11/lord-ashcroft-my-focus-groups-in-three-heavily-remain-voting-liberal-democrat-targets.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Two things get brought up by voters on the doorstep, unprompted, time after time.

    We must Brexit.

    We must stop Jeremy Corbyn from getting to 10 Downing Street.

    These two twin drivers will get them to the polling stations, whatever the conditions.

    There was some Labour MP quoted recently saying he'd done loads of knocking up and Brexit wasn't mentioned by voters once. Which is it?! Probably somewhere in between. Latest Ashcroft focus group on ConHome not pretty reading for the Tories:
    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/11/lord-ashcroft-my-focus-groups-in-three-heavily-remain-voting-liberal-democrat-targets.html
    Brexit is certainly a door-step thing here in Totnes. Maybe voters have taken the view there's no point in talking to a Labour candidate about Brexit. Not unless they want half an hour of "Well, on the one hand...."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    A good piece from David as usual, although personally I can see a high turnout. People in general want to send a message to the politicians, even if the politicians and their activists don’t like having to ‘work’ when it’s cold and wet outside.

    Less good to see the thinly veiled racism of one poster on this thread. But it’s definitely not an institutional problem.
  • The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1192939050417737733?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SamLowry60/status/1192939998888288262?s=20

    Hmm, I dunno, I mean people should stay away from anything that looks like a threat of violence especially in the current climate, but that's not really what that meme is about... OTOH the crying face makes it slightly more disturbing than it should be...
    Two words that show the hypocrisy of Labour:

    Jo Cox.
    I don't know who you think is speaking for Labour?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Gabs2 said:

    Actions not words, the Israeli government is a far bigger Muslim killer than vice versa.

    Tens of thousands of Israelis have died fighting for their survival against Arab regimes who united to crush Israel from the first day of its existence. Had they succeeded, there would have undoubtedly been a second mass genocide of the Jewish people, less than a decade after the first one wiped out six million of us.

    "Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.

    If this woman wanted to be credible she could acknowledge how wrong the death celebration talk was, but she doesn't. She actually gets upset that there was criticism over it. As for "trying to void talk", the level of projection is unreal. The whole "what about Tory Islamophobia" narrative only emerged to avoid answering questions on the institutional anti-Semitism in Labour.

    I have not yet decided who I will vote for. Most likely I will go Lib Dem or abstain. Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative every time the ugliness of far left scum like you comes pouring out. Corbynism is the ugly underbelly of the left, which has infiltrated and rotted from within the Labour movement with a sick nastiness that will destroy the party. I look forward to the day the Liberal Democrats overtake you and banish your types to the fringes where you belong.
    Sorry to spoil your fun mate but far right pieces of crap like yourself are the ones being pushed to the fringes, young people aren't up for old bigoted views any more.

    I shared the YouGov polling earlier with Labour vote among 18-24. The 'but the Muslims' from you scummy far right pieces of crap doesn't wash with the younger generation. The young will see you off you bigoted gammon types.

    I realise the Muslim woman is annoying and think she can complain about the racism but you know better right, she just shut up and be grateful we let her type live in this country, how dare she criticise the almighty Blair and world hero Netanyahu, now your lane BAME girl.

    You are scum mate, absolute scum I'm glad my generations and the ones below are rejecting the hatred and racism you support.
    I don't think that you're persuading anybody.
  • On topic, I think this race has a few different potential states depending where the polling goes.

    1) Boris steamrollers everything. The polls don't move much, the result is kind of a forgone conclusion, neither side will try very hard, not much turnout
    2) 2017 redux: Corbyn closes in, it looks like a race, the media talk up how close it is, pretty strong turnout
    3) Jogasm: LibDem surge, Lab kind of depressed, Con don't feel under much threat, LibDems turn out out of hope but nobody else really does since they don't inspire fear, aggregate turnout still pretty low even though it's high in parts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    A more dispassionate look at the Tories’ problem with ethnic minorities:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45765496
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    I normally read Mr Cadboll's contributions with a sense of disagreement, but in one area I think he is right. IIRC, in neither 2001 nor 2005 was there much suggestion of postal voting. Now there's quite a lot, and, again IIRC it's a lot easier to get one.
    This of course has two effects, the first being that, since the evidence is that people with postal votes vote when they get them, anything said or done in the last couple of weeks of the campaign will be irrelevant. Postal votes have been cast.
    Secondly, while I agree with Mr Herdman that the time of year, especially if it's coupled with bad weather may put some people off, they may well be the very people who have postal votes.

    February 74 of course produced a high turnout; almost 79%.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757
    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Gabs2 said:



    And on you go. I have never supported a single far right policy on here and criticized many of them. I have vocally opposed Trump and openly supported Elizabeth Warren. Yet to you I am far right because I am a Jew protesting Labour anti-Semitism. And then you will claim Labour isn't anti-Semitic. The mask has come off.

    You are apparently lots of things that are useful for you to advocate for the Conservatives, problem is it all melds into one long BS story who knows what parts are true.

    Ahh yes saying Labour isn't anti semitic is anti semitic, genius, almost on the level of if she floats she's a witch, did you need several skinhead mates to help you come up with that formulation or did you think it up all by yourself in between cursing various BAME women for wrong think?
    Repeated and obsessive claims that anti semites are not anti semitic are indeed anti semitic. That's how holocaust denial works. I would say stop embarrassing yourself, but your problem goes well beyond the merely embarrassing.
  • Two things get brought up by voters on the doorstep, unprompted, time after time.

    We must Brexit.

    We must stop Jeremy Corbyn from getting to 10 Downing Street.

    These two twin drivers will get them to the polling stations, whatever the conditions.

    Ridding parliament of those members who blocked Brexit is very strong in Cumbria - there is little time on the doorstep for either Rory Stewart or Tim Farron.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757

    Two things get brought up by voters on the doorstep, unprompted, time after time.

    We must Brexit.

    We must stop Jeremy Corbyn from getting to 10 Downing Street.

    These two twin drivers will get them to the polling stations, whatever the conditions.

    Ridding parliament of those members who blocked Brexit is very strong in Cumbria - there is little time on the doorstep for either Rory Stewart or Tim Farron.
    I have been wondering a bit about Westmorland and Lonsdale. It's true that a Liberal Democrat general surge would see him home but equally as I recall last time the seat went against the trend. Do you think he might be struggling there?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Nigelb said:

    A more dispassionate look at the Tories’ problem with ethnic minorities:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45765496

    This quote is quite telling.

    "Once the ethnic minority population of a constituency reaches 30%... it becomes almost impossible for [the Conservatives] to win it," says Lord Cooper.

    "In 1987 there were no constituencies in the UK with 30% or more ethnic minority populations, but it has been estimated that by 2022, the next election… there could be as many as 120."

    In my experience, Gujerati Hindus are quite willing to vote Tory, but even so most vote Labour.

    One issue that is under explored is how minorities feel about each other. Are Hindus less likely to vote for a Muslim than an ethnic Brit, and vice versa? If you want to see how fervent these issues can be, ask either about Kashmir.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Sandpit said:

    A good piece from David as usual, although personally I can see a high turnout. People in general want to send a message to the politicians, even if the politicians and their activists don’t like having to ‘work’ when it’s cold and wet outside.

    Less good to see the thinly veiled racism of one poster on this thread. But it’s definitely not an institutional problem.

    I think the contrary. My biggest bets are on low turnout, which is good value on less than 60% at 9.5. Not so much the weather as Bored of Brexit. Combine this with unpopular leaders, lacklustre candidates and crap campaigns.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A more dispassionate look at the Tories’ problem with ethnic minorities:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45765496

    This quote is quite telling.

    "Once the ethnic minority population of a constituency reaches 30%... it becomes almost impossible for [the Conservatives] to win it," says Lord Cooper.

    "In 1987 there were no constituencies in the UK with 30% or more ethnic minority populations, but it has been estimated that by 2022, the next election… there could be as many as 120."

    In my experience, Gujerati Hindus are quite willing to vote Tory, but even so most vote Labour.

    One issue that is under explored is how minorities feel about each other. Are Hindus less likely to vote for a Muslim than an ethnic Brit, and vice versa? If you want to see how fervent these issues can be, ask either about Kashmir.
    One thing Cameron got right was his decision to try to change the party in this respect. Subsequent event have probably set that back by a decade.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    'Only speaking to like minded people' is, as you suggest, a sure route to failure. I once went on a very strange 'Creative and Transformational Management' course, where one of the few nuggets was that a management team should always include a Critic, someone who could be relied upon to say 'yebbut'.
  • The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    Does the weather affect turnout?
    A commonly held belief is that bad weather, for example rain, will deter
    people from voting in elections. Most academic research on the subject
    suggests that there is little evidence that bad weather will stop people
    from voting.
    Democratic Audit analysed election turnout and the weather in Sweden.
    According to the authors:
    “Using a large number of statistical tests and robustness checks,
    we fail to find any significant effect of rain on voter turnout in
    Sweden. Even when using datasets covering almost 150,000
    persons and very detailed rain data, we do not find any
    meaningful effects of weather conditions.”17
    There have been some studies which show a connection between the
    weather and turnout. One of the most comprehensive focused on the
    weather in US Presidential Elections and found that “when compared to
    normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate
    of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases
    turnout by almost 0.5%”.18
    It is unclear to what extent findings from other countries are applicable
    to UK General Elections. Stephen Fisher, associate professor at Oxford
    University, has argued that:
    ”If you made a statistical correlation and scored the weather
    according to how good it was and compiled a graph showing
    voter turnout, over the last 15 elections you don't see a
    correlation”19
    Professor John Curtice has suggested that unless there is severe storms
    in winter the weather will not make a difference to turnout:
    “We are talking about elections in spring or autumn. If you had a
    January snowstorm it would make a difference but for the most
    part the weather is mildly inclement at these times of year. So you
    might need to take a brolly with you or you might have sunshine
    but you won't have a howling gale or snow or serious travel
    disruption [deterring people from voting].”20
    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997.

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited November 2019
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    I like this post. Miles and Cummings are not thick, but they certainly operate in a bubble filled with their own sweet smelling farts.

    Politics has never been so depressing. Boris should lose big based on his performance in office, but he looks likely to win, those around him will celebrate and exploit their mandate, confusing electoral success with actual ability. We’re in for a rough ride.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757
    edited November 2019
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    Miles and Cummings are not thick
    Aren't they? I'll take your word for it, especially since you say nice things about me (:smile:) but all I can say is if they're intelligent, they hide it bloody well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    Miles and Cummings are not thick
    Aren't they? I'll take your word for it, but all I can say is if they're intelligent, they hide it bloody well.
    Have you read their stuff? Misguided, but not thick. Have you decided who to vote for?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    Miles and Cummings are not thick
    Aren't they? I'll take your word for it, but all I can say is if they're intelligent, they hide it bloody well.
    Have you read their stuff? Misguided, but not thick. Have you decided who to vote for?
    I wouldn't say misguided so much as malign. Both hate the British establishment and want to destroy it, but with incompatible visions of what to replace it with.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    Miles and Cummings are not thick
    Aren't they? I'll take your word for it, but all I can say is if they're intelligent, they hide it bloody well.
    Have you read their stuff? Misguided, but not thick. Have you decided who to vote for?
    Yes. That's why I was assuming they were idiots. It's more charitable than assuming they are pathological liars and forgers. I've also had practical experience of working in a system managed by Cummings which was so full of basic errors it would have caused a fairly bright seven year old embarrassment.

    In reply to your second question, not yet. I am not going to make any decisions until I see a full candidate list.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    Miles and Cummings are not thick
    Aren't they? I'll take your word for it, but all I can say is if they're intelligent, they hide it bloody well.
    Have you read their stuff? Misguided, but not thick. Have you decided who to vote for?
    It is not impossible to have a high IQ and be totally unaware of the consequences of ones actions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A more dispassionate look at the Tories’ problem with ethnic minorities:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45765496

    This quote is quite telling.

    "Once the ethnic minority population of a constituency reaches 30%... it becomes almost impossible for [the Conservatives] to win it," says Lord Cooper.

    "In 1987 there were no constituencies in the UK with 30% or more ethnic minority populations, but it has been estimated that by 2022, the next election… there could be as many as 120."

    In my experience, Gujerati Hindus are quite willing to vote Tory, but even so most vote Labour.

    One issue that is under explored is how minorities feel about each other. Are Hindus less likely to vote for a Muslim than an ethnic Brit, and vice versa? If you want to see how fervent these issues can be, ask either about Kashmir.
    It’s a minefield, as I remember from my times canvassing in Ilford. Campaigning for an ethnic minority (although in much of Ilford now the majority) candidate throws up all sorts of dimensions - which village or which family the candidate or their family originally comes from matters a lot to some voters, and the candidate’s surname sends all sort of messages which aren’t on the radar of a white canvasser.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.


    Don’t blame the advertising, blame the product?
  • The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    Does the weather affect turnout?
    A commonly held belief is that bad weather, for example rain, will deter
    people from voting in elections. Most academic research on the subject
    suggests that there is little evidence that bad weather will stop people
    from voting.
    Democratic Audit analysed election turnout and the weather in Sweden.
    According to the authors:
    “Using a large number of statistical tests and robustness checks,
    we fail to find any significant effect of rain on voter turnout in
    Sweden. Even when using datasets covering almost 150,000
    persons and very detailed rain data, we do not find any
    meaningful effects of weather conditions.”17
    There have been some studies which show a connection between the
    weather and turnout. One of the most comprehensive focused on the
    weather in US Presidential Elections and found that “when compared to
    normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate
    of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases
    turnout by almost 0.5%”.18
    It is unclear to what extent findings from other countries are applicable
    to UK General Elections. Stephen Fisher, associate professor at Oxford
    University, has argued that:
    ”If you made a statistical correlation and scored the weather
    according to how good it was and compiled a graph showing
    voter turnout, over the last 15 elections you don't see a
    correlation”19
    Professor John Curtice has suggested that unless there is severe storms
    in winter the weather will not make a difference to turnout:
    “We are talking about elections in spring or autumn. If you had a
    January snowstorm it would make a difference but for the most
    part the weather is mildly inclement at these times of year. So you
    might need to take a brolly with you or you might have sunshine
    but you won't have a howling gale or snow or serious travel
    disruption [deterring people from voting].”20
    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997.

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.
    I can't imagine Sweden is a good model. Scandinavians don't let bad weather get in the way, otherwise they'd spend the winter indoors. One question is, what happens if their is a major weather incident, of the sort with major transport disruption and/or Met Office warnings not to travel? Maybe unlikely in December (rather than Jan/Feb) but possible. I guess there is no way for voting to be extended or postponed though.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    I dont really buy the low turnout argument as a major factor, admittedly it will be a shorter day etc but voters still have 15 hours to vote, the referendum IIRC saw heavy rain (in June) but turnout was whopping.

    So provided the messages are relevant and all the parties keep chasing I dont think it will be a poor turnou, esp as nowadays social media will keep nudging the target voters (something we did not have in 1974 etc). I have been tempted by betting on a 70% plus turnout so am putting my money where my mouth is...
  • IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.


    Don’t blame the advertising, blame the product?
    Advertising can drive trial of a crap product. The issue is whether voters now view both of the two main E&W parties as "crap products", or one more than the other....
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    We know from Brexit (and not just the Cumberbatch version) that Cummings thinks traditional campaigns do not matter, and that it is all about under-the-radar social media campaigns. CCHQ has hired digital campaigners from Australia and New Zealand whose reputation is to fight dirty and win.

    Arguably this is not new. Remember the credit flying around in 2015 to Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina. Labour also has an effective social media operation but is more dependent on volunteers.

    Digital campaigns. especially so-called narrowcasting, have two advantages: first, other parties cannot respond if they don't know what you have said and who you have said it to; second, it can reach geographically disparate demographics. Boots on the ground, though, can be more effective for discrete geographies like, erm, constituencies.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited November 2019

    The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    "Does the weather affect turnout?
    A commonly held belief is that bad weather, for example rain, will deter
    people from voting in elections. Most academic research on the subject
    suggests that there is little evidence that bad weather will stop people
    from voting.
    Democratic Audit analysed election turnout and the weather in Sweden.
    According to the authors:
    “Using a large number of statistical tests and robustness checks,
    we fail to find any significant effect of rain on voter turnout in
    Sweden. Even when using datasets covering almost 150,000
    persons and very detailed rain data, we do not find any
    meaningful effects of weather conditions.”17
    There have been some studies which show a connection between the
    weather and turnout. One of the most comprehensive focused on the
    weather in US Presidential Elections and found that “when compared to
    normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate
    of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases
    turnout by almost 0.5%”.18
    It is unclear to what extent findings from other countries are applicable
    to UK General Elections. Stephen Fisher, associate professor at Oxford
    University, has argued that:
    ”If you made a statistical correlation and scored the weather
    according to how good it was and compiled a graph showing
    voter turnout, over the last 15 elections you don't see a
    correlation”19
    Professor John Curtice has suggested that unless there is severe storms
    in winter the weather will not make a difference to turnout:
    “We are talking about elections in spring or autumn. If you had a
    January snowstorm it would make a difference but for the most
    part the weather is mildly inclement at these times of year. So you
    might need to take a brolly with you or you might have sunshine
    but you won't have a howling gale or snow or serious travel
    disruption [deterring people from voting].”
    20
    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997."

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.

    The bold bit is the point. Agree that a drop of rain makes no odds (though I imagine the Sheffield floods would have been enough to close some polling stations) but serious vote-disrupting snowfall could be enough to change outcomes. NB that it would work non-uniformly by hitting different constituencies, rural vs urban, and in-person vs postal voters. Mid December is not high risk, but it's not no-risk either.
  • The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    Does the weather affect turnout?
    ...
    Professor John Curtice has suggested that unless there is severe storms
    in winter the weather will not make a difference to turnout:
    “We are talking about elections in spring or autumn. If you had a
    January snowstorm it would make a difference but for the most
    part the weather is mildly inclement at these times of year. So you
    might need to take a brolly with you or you might have sunshine
    but you won't have a howling gale or snow or serious travel
    disruption [deterring people from voting].”20
    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997.

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.
    I can't imagine Sweden is a good model. Scandinavians don't let bad weather get in the way, otherwise they'd spend the winter indoors. One question is, what happens if their is a major weather incident, of the sort with major transport disruption and/or Met Office warnings not to travel? Maybe unlikely in December (rather than Jan/Feb) but possible. I guess there is no way for voting to be extended or postponed though.
    I've been toying with making a Freedom of Information request on the historical frequency of weather warnings for that reason.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    The much talked of ‘Labour Leavers’ appears already to be with the BXP. Plenty of Tory remainers there, still.
  • The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    Does the weather affect turnout?
    ...
    Professor John Curtice has suggested that unless there is severe storms
    in winter the weather will not make a difference to turnout:
    “We are talking about elections in spring or autumn. If you had a
    January snowstorm it would make a difference but for the most
    part the weather is mildly inclement at these times of year. So you
    might need to take a brolly with you or you might have sunshine
    but you won't have a howling gale or snow or serious travel
    disruption [deterring people from voting].”20
    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997.

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.
    I can't imagine Sweden is a good model. Scandinavians don't let bad weather get in the way, otherwise they'd spend the winter indoors. One question is, what happens if their is a major weather incident, of the sort with major transport disruption and/or Met Office warnings not to travel? Maybe unlikely in December (rather than Jan/Feb) but possible. I guess there is no way for voting to be extended or postponed though.
    I've been toying with making a Freedom of Information request on the historical frequency of weather warnings for that reason.
    Someone in Government must have a contingency plan. You'd have thought.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    'Only speaking to like minded people' is, as you suggest, a sure route to failure. I once went on a very strange 'Creative and Transformational Management' course, where one of the few nuggets was that a management team should always include a Critic, someone who could be relied upon to say 'yebbut'.
    Yebbut in practice, management is all about recruiting team players; being a critic is not the way to promotion or even career longevity. I suppose you could, for each project meeting, have a rotating role of devil's advocate. Arse-kissing works, even when the arse-owner knows that is what you are doing. The greater good can take its own chances!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    "Does the weather affect turnout?
    A commonly held belief is that bad weather, for example rain, will deter
    people from voting in elections. Most academic research on the subject
    suggests that there is little evidence that bad weather will stop people
    from voting.
    ...
    Professor John Curtice has suggested that unless there is severe storms
    in winter the weather will not make a difference to turnout:
    “We are talking about elections in spring or autumn. If you had a
    January snowstorm it would make a difference but for the most
    part the weather is mildly inclement at these times of year. So you
    might need to take a brolly with you or you might have sunshine
    but you won't have a howling gale or snow or serious travel
    disruption [deterring people from voting].”
    20
    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997."

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.

    The bold bit is the point. Agree that a drop of rain makes no odds (though I imagine the Sheffield floods would have been enough to close some polling stations) but serious vote-disrupting snowfall could be enough to change outcomes. NB that it would work non-uniformly by hitting different constituencies, rural vs urban, and in-person vs postal voters. Mid December is not high risk, but it's not no-risk either.
    I think if we were to have the strongest gale of the year then that would have some impact too. So far this season has been very quiet with no named storms yet. (Which means we have little chance of reaching storm Noah now).
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435

    The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    Does the weather affect turnout?
    ...
    Professor John Curtice has suggested that unless there is severe storms
    in winter the weather will not make a difference to turnout:
    “We are talking about elections in spring or autumn. If you had a
    January snowstorm it would make a difference but for the most
    part the weather is mildly inclement at these times of year. So you
    might need to take a brolly with you or you might have sunshine
    but you won't have a howling gale or snow or serious travel
    disruption [deterring people from voting].”20
    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997.

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.
    I can't imagine Sweden is a good model. Scandinavians don't let bad weather get in the way, otherwise they'd spend the winter indoors. One question is, what happens if their is a major weather incident, of the sort with major transport disruption and/or Met Office warnings not to travel? Maybe unlikely in December (rather than Jan/Feb) but possible. I guess there is no way for voting to be extended or postponed though.
    I've been toying with making a Freedom of Information request on the historical frequency of weather warnings for that reason.
    Someone in Government must have a contingency plan. You'd have thought.
    Maybe Chris Grayling was in charge of that one.?
  • The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    Does the weather affect turnout?
    ...
    Professor John Curtice has suggested that unless there is severe storms
    in winter the weather will not make a difference to turnout:
    “We are talking about elections in spring or autumn. If you had a
    January snowstorm it would make a difference but for the most
    part the weather is mildly inclement at these times of year. So you
    might need to take a brolly with you or you might have sunshine
    but you won't have a howling gale or snow or serious travel
    disruption [deterring people from voting].”20
    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997.

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.
    I can't imagine Sweden is a good model. Scandinavians don't let bad weather get in the way, otherwise they'd spend the winter indoors. One question is, what happens if their is a major weather incident, of the sort with major transport disruption and/or Met Office warnings not to travel? Maybe unlikely in December (rather than Jan/Feb) but possible. I guess there is no way for voting to be extended or postponed though.
    I've been toying with making a Freedom of Information request on the historical frequency of weather warnings for that reason.
    Someone in Government must have a contingency plan. You'd have thought.
    Someone in government with unruly blond hair has not even donned Gordon Brown's wellies and visited flooded areas looking stern and determined.

    Lol: hot off the press:
    UK weather: Boris Johnson says flooding does not amount to a 'national emergency'
    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-public-urged-to-stay-away-from-swollen-rivers-amid-extensive-flooding-11857056
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    I can't imagine Sweden is a good model. Scandinavians don't let bad weather get in the way, otherwise they'd spend the winter indoors. One question is, what happens if their is a major weather incident, of the sort with major transport disruption and/or Met Office warnings not to travel? Maybe unlikely in December (rather than Jan/Feb) but possible. I guess there is no way for voting to be extended or postponed though.

    I also doubt the Swedes would be silly enough to hold December elections. The 4 yearly riksdag poll is always around 15-20 September (just before the equinox, which figures).
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Single football bet failed yesterday, but there'll be more random nonsense later today.

    Mr. JohnL, might not impress people much.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    I disagree. I think that turnout will at least match 2017 (when we were not exactly enthused with our politicians either). This is hopefully the closest we are going to get to a second referendum on Brexit and I think that will drag people out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    IanB2 said:

    The much talked of ‘Labour Leavers’ appears already to be with the BXP. Plenty of Tory remainers there, still.
    The Lib Dems need to squeeze the Tory Remain vote, but they probably need Labour to be doing a bit worse before people feel free to risk it.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 405

    The Commons Briefing Paper on GE2017 has a section on the weather and turnout that is worth quoting in full.

    Does the weather affect turnout?
    A commonly held belief is that bad weather, for example rain, will deter
    people from voting in elections. Most academic research on the subject
    suggests that there is little evidence that bad weather will stop people
    from voting.

    Despite the wet weather conditions, across the UK turnout in the 2017
    General Election was 68.8%, the highest since 1997.

    I'm going to be attempting to gather rainfall data on a constituency level, but I don't have the data for 2017, so I won't be able to do much more than establish a baseline for comparison with future general elections.
    The problem with these analyses is that they're looking for big, broad trends in an issue that's likely to be influenced by tiny localised peculiarities.

    My own constituency, for example, has 82,000 voters and 50-odd polling stations. The wrong kind of sudden overnight snowfall on Dec11/12 would make about 20 of these inaccessible (there simply aren't enough snowploughs in the county to clear everywhere in under 72 hours, and those 20 are at the bottom of the priority list) - but those 20 serve in total only about 1% of the electorate. However, it's only 10 years since we had precisely that wrong kind of snowfall in mid-December.

    But almost all the constituency's hilly and the pop's relatively elderly, so a certain kind of very cold weather and light rain at the wrong times could make a huge proportion of pavements unsafe for much of the day, and inhibit the safe transport of ballot boxes to the count: under such circs, turnout would be affected more by how successfully the parties and the returning officer implement emergency plans than the weather itself.

    If the US rule of thumb is that turnout falls 1% for every inch of rain, you'd argue that in my constituency (ave total rainfall in the 31 days of December: 2.6 inches) rain can't possibly matter. But just half an inch of it falling, if temps are below freezing, on the night of Dec 11 could devastate the election here.

    Correlations with countries like the US or Sweden that ate far better prepared for extreme weather - but have fewer polling stations per head - are of limited value.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited November 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A more dispassionate look at the Tories’ problem with ethnic minorities:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45765496

    This quote is quite telling.

    "Once the ethnic minority population of a constituency reaches 30%... it becomes almost impossible for [the Conservatives] to win it," says Lord Cooper.

    "In 1987 there were no constituencies in the UK with 30% or more ethnic minority populations, but it has been estimated that by 2022, the next election… there could be as many as 120."

    In my experience, Gujerati Hindus are quite willing to vote Tory, but even so most vote Labour.

    One issue that is under explored is how minorities feel about each other. Are Hindus less likely to vote for a Muslim than an ethnic Brit, and vice versa? If you want to see how fervent these issues can be, ask either about Kashmir.
    the candidate’s surname sends all sort of messages which aren’t on the radar of a white canvasser.
    Yes, though I would argue are fairly clear even at a gross level imo. If you get into eg regions of countries, and historic feuds, it is more interesting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    We know from Brexit (and not just the Cumberbatch version) that Cummings thinks traditional campaigns do not matter, and that it is all about under-the-radar social media campaigns. CCHQ has hired digital campaigners from Australia and New Zealand whose reputation is to fight dirty and win.

    Arguably this is not new. Remember the credit flying around in 2015 to Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina. Labour also has an effective social media operation but is more dependent on volunteers.

    Digital campaigns. especially so-called narrowcasting, have two advantages: first, other parties cannot respond if they don't know what you have said and who you have said it to; second, it can reach geographically disparate demographics. Boots on the ground, though, can be more effective for discrete geographies like, erm, constituencies.
    Social media messages spread by friends have much more impact than paid for agitprop. Labour have the clear lead with these.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    nunu2 said:
    quite
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A more dispassionate look at the Tories’ problem with ethnic minorities:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45765496

    This quote is quite telling.

    "Once the ethnic minority population of a constituency reaches 30%... it becomes almost impossible for [the Conservatives] to win it," says Lord Cooper.

    "In 1987 there were no constituencies in the UK with 30% or more ethnic minority populations, but it has been estimated that by 2022, the next election… there could be as many as 120."

    In my experience, Gujerati Hindus are quite willing to vote Tory, but even so most vote Labour.

    One issue that is under explored is how minorities feel about each other. Are Hindus less likely to vote for a Muslim than an ethnic Brit, and vice versa? If you want to see how fervent these issues can be, ask either about Kashmir.
    the candidate’s surname sends all sort of messages which aren’t on the radar of a white canvasser.
    Yes, though I would argue are fairly clear even at a gross level imo. If you get into eg regions of countries, and historic feuds, it is more interesting.
    I see the Ahodya temple/mosque dispute is kicking off again...

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ayodhya-verdict-live-updates-supreme-court-verdict-on-ram-mandir-babri-masjid-dispute/liveblog/71978224.cms
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    We know from Brexit (and not just the Cumberbatch version) that Cummings thinks traditional campaigns do not matter, and that it is all about under-the-radar social media campaigns. CCHQ has hired digital campaigners from Australia and New Zealand whose reputation is to fight dirty and win.

    Arguably this is not new. Remember the credit flying around in 2015 to Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina. Labour also has an effective social media operation but is more dependent on volunteers.

    Digital campaigns. especially so-called narrowcasting, have two advantages: first, other parties cannot respond if they don't know what you have said and who you have said it to; second, it can reach geographically disparate demographics. Boots on the ground, though, can be more effective for discrete geographies like, erm, constituencies.
    Social media messages spread by friends have much more impact than paid for agitprop. Labour have the clear lead with these.
    However, older voters (who disproportionately vote) are much much harder to reach with social media so door knocking, TV and newspapaers will still matter
  • Have I mentioned I bet on turnout at <60% at 12/1 yet??
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    IanB2 said:

    The much talked of ‘Labour Leavers’ appears already to be with the BXP. Plenty of Tory remainers there, still.
    The Lib Dems need to squeeze the Tory Remain vote, but they probably need Labour to be doing a bit worse before people feel free to risk it.
    But they never will risk it, not while Corbyn is Labour leader. The shock of that 2017 exit poll is a huge asset for the Tories. The idea that "well, he can't get in" so it is safe to vote LibDem for Remainers/Brexit for Leavers has been knocked out of play in 2019.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.

    For all the electoral expertise the two big parties ought to have built up there does seem to be some serious incompetence about.
    Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
    It's Milne and Cummings running things. Between them they have about three brain cells but are convinced that they are misunderstood geniuses. As a result, neither ever takes advice from actual experts.

    More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
    We know from Brexit (and not just the Cumberbatch version) that Cummings thinks traditional campaigns do not matter, and that it is all about under-the-radar social media campaigns. CCHQ has hired digital campaigners from Australia and New Zealand whose reputation is to fight dirty and win.

    Arguably this is not new. Remember the credit flying around in 2015 to Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina. Labour also has an effective social media operation but is more dependent on volunteers.

    Digital campaigns. especially so-called narrowcasting, have two advantages: first, other parties cannot respond if they don't know what you have said and who you have said it to; second, it can reach geographically disparate demographics. Boots on the ground, though, can be more effective for discrete geographies like, erm, constituencies.
    Social media messages spread by friends have much more impact than paid for agitprop. Labour have the clear lead with these.
    However, older voters (who disproportionately vote) are much much harder to reach with social media so door knocking, TV and newspapaers will still matter
    Social media messages from political parties have no impact on most people. All the Parties are untruthful in their messaging.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Have I mentioned I bet on turnout at <60% at 12/1 yet??</p>

    Brave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Have I mentioned I bet on turnout at <60% at 12/1 yet??</p>

    I hope you have another farm.....
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Have I mentioned I bet on turnout at <60% at 12/1 yet??</p>

    Brave.
    Great odds but I cant see it happening.....pray for snow or even a plague of locusts
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    I am not convinced the campaigns are historically bad.

    It is just that social media has made it much more difficult to control the narrative .

    The main impression I have is that the Tories are being ruthless in shutting down problems with candidates; Ross England kicked out, Alun Cairns told to resign as Minister, Nick Conrad told to sod off. Cairns' letter sounded as though it had been dictated by Malcolm Tucker. The Charlie Elphicke problem has been skilfully finessed.

    The Labour Party -- as befits the party that has somehow let the antisemitism issue engulf it for nearly 2 years -- has not been so successful with problems with candidates.

    My take is that Corbyn is not antisemitic. But, he has completely failed to shut this issue down over a very long period of times & that is major incompetence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    I have vivid memories of staggering through over a foot of snow carrying a baby to our village hall (which happens to be our polling station) for a ceilidh on hogmanay just over a decade ago. We made it there and back after drink had been consumed. Popping out to cast my vote in what we laughingly call daylight at this time of year will be a dawdle. Flooding that closes a polling station is another matter but short of that I am yet to be persuaded this is going to have any impact.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Far more important to overall turnout could be this postal strike...
    It will hit some regions far more than others with postal votes..are there any contingency plans?
  • Have I mentioned I bet on turnout at <60% at 12/1 yet??</p>

    Someone was claiming 16/1 yesterday. As a racing punter, I'm waiting for the 5-day forecast.
  • nunu2 said:
    Since Leave + Remain comprise 72% of the electorate - or roughly 36% each, they are reasonably large subsamples - is it only on statistical grounds you advocate ignoring?
  • RobD said:

    The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1192939050417737733?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SamLowry60/status/1192939998888288262?s=20

    Hmm, I dunno, I mean people should stay away from anything that looks like a threat of violence especially in the current climate, but that's not really what that meme is about... OTOH the crying face makes it slightly more disturbing than it should be...
    How in any way is it acceptable to have an image with a gun pointed at a politican's head, especially after what happened during the referendum?
    Careful, you might have BJ bellowing 'HUMBUG'.
  • If there is a low turnout it will mean a disproportionate number of tactical Remainers participating, as they are the most motivated to vote according to all the polling. Given the seats they have to win the Tories need a high turnout.
  • On topic, excellent article. The other factor to consider is potential Conservative and Labour moderate voters just staying at home (being unable to abide the choices and in an election that looks a foregone conclusion). Possibly the impact of the postal strike on postal votes as well.

    I hope Boris has considered how valid his mandate will be if he wins a majority of 50 on a voteshare of 35% on a turnout of 59%.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    There's a generous slice of victoria sponge sitting in a coffee shop with my name on it. It's a tough gig but someone has to do it. Have we any idea when the polls today will start to drop? Presumably most will be in the papers tomorrow so not until well after my cake has been consumed.
  • I note with amusement that Jezziah is predictably saying literally anything to defend his Master's anti-semitism problem. Even quoting YouGov in his defence. Shall we look at what YouGov says abour Labour's vote share vs 2017?

    UK: -15%
    Scotland: -15%
    Wales: -20%
    NE: -23%
    NW: -25%
    Yorks: -20%
    EMids: -19%
    WMids: -20%
    E Eng: -16%
    London: -16%
    SE: -13%
    SW: -12%

    Say what you like mate, it really doesn't matter. Keep on selecting anti-semite after anti-semite as candidates whilst insisting its all a smear, it really doesn't matter.

    I can't call this election's result. But it seems clear that Labour are going to get an absolute beating from the electorate. I despise so much of what the uncaring Tory party have done. But that is nothing compared to the actual considered rational racism exhibited by Corbyn's Labour Party. That it's coming from a Labour Party, a Labour Party which supposedly is a bastion against racism is even more tragic.

    So, please, Jezziah. Keep digging. The deeper you dig, the deeper the Labour Party gets buried.
  • The campaigns really will matter – which does beg the question why they’re quite so bad.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1192939050417737733?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SamLowry60/status/1192939998888288262?s=20

    Hmm, I dunno, I mean people should stay away from anything that looks like a threat of violence especially in the current climate, but that's not really what that meme is about... OTOH the crying face makes it slightly more disturbing than it should be...
    I think that most normal people treat twitter/facebook like a private conversation between friends in a pub. A lot of stupid stuff is said, but mostly it's quickly forgotten, or you change the subject, or you learn to ignore the ranty bloke at the bar, or whatever.

    When someone stands for election then suddenly everything they've ever posted on social media becomes on the record political interviews and held to a much higher standard of acceptable discourse than pub banter. It's a mess.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited November 2019
    Good header.

    Meanwhile I am trying to understand Bassetlaw. The new candidate (article, LabourList) is Keir Morrison, who is one of the two extant Lab Councillors in Ashfield, and the former cabinet member for housing (imo ideological rather than good - took a very good Housing Setup back into political control for no good reason.) Morrison embarrassed Ed Miliband when he wore the famous teeshirt.

    Morrison can't stand in Ashfield because they exclude men.

    When the previous candidate Sally Gimson was selected (official in Starmer's constituency party iirc) there was umpteen kerfuffle about locals being excluded from the longlist including the Leader of Bassetlaw Council.

    Gimson was defenestrated by the NEC with dark mutterings about "allegations around protected characteristics" in Starmer's Holborn & St Pancras Party, none of which seem to have been published, and about which St Pancras Party has said it has not been consulted.

    Gimson threatened to sue, and published a Letter Before Action, but has now backed down again.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBI0pjC37KE

    Majority 5k. Tories currently favourite. Hmmm.
  • On topic, excellent article. The other factor to consider is potential Conservative and Labour moderate voters just staying at home (being unable to abide the choices and in an election that looks a foregone conclusion). Possibly the impact of the postal strike on postal votes as well.

    I hope Boris has considered how valid his mandate will be if he wins a majority of 50 on a voteshare of 35% on a turnout of 59%.

    He would think about that exactly as much as Tony Blair thought about the nature of his 2005 mandate. ie not at all.
  • timmo said:

    Far more important to overall turnout could be this postal strike...
    It will hit some regions far more than others with postal votes..are there any contingency plans?

    I think this is true.

    The other matter which could really affect turnout would be a MAJOR snowstorm with substantial drifting - we had one on 9 Dec 2009 as I remember.
  • On topic, excellent article. The other factor to consider is potential Conservative and Labour moderate voters just staying at home (being unable to abide the choices and in an election that looks a foregone conclusion). Possibly the impact of the postal strike on postal votes as well.

    I hope Boris has considered how valid his mandate will be if he wins a majority of 50 on a voteshare of 35% on a turnout of 59%.

    He would be quite happy to get a majority of 50 if he had a voteshare of 25% on a turnout of 49%. He just wants the job and the power (without the responsibility of course).

    I think it will actually be a high rather than low turnout election.
  • Mr. Above, must admit, I'm not persuaded we'll see low turnout.

    It could be interesting to see, though, as it might act as a useful guideline for whether people are likelier to vote in opposition to something rather than for something.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    On topic, excellent article. The other factor to consider is potential Conservative and Labour moderate voters just staying at home (being unable to abide the choices and in an election that looks a foregone conclusion). Possibly the impact of the postal strike on postal votes as well.

    I hope Boris has considered how valid his mandate will be if he wins a majority of 50 on a voteshare of 35% on a turnout of 59%.

    I'm sure Tony Blair never lost sleep over his 66 majority on 35% of the vote on 61% turnout..
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    MattW said:

    Good header.

    Meanwhile I am trying to understand Bassetlaw. The new candidate (article, LabourList) is Keir Morrison, who is one of the two extant Lab Councillors in Ashfield, and the former cabinet member for housing (imo ideological rather than good - took a very good Housing Setup back into political control for no good reason.) Morrison embarrassed Ed Miliband when he wore the famous teeshirt.

    Morrison can't stand in Ashfield because they exclude men.

    When the previous candidate Sally Gimson was selected (official in Starmer's constituency party iirc) there was umpteen kerfuffle about locals being excluded from the longlist including the Leader of Bassetlaw Council.

    Gimson was defenestrated by the NEC with dark mutterings about "allegations around protected characteristics" in Starmer's Holborn & St Pancras Party, none of which seem to have been published, and about which St Pancras Party has said it has not been consulted.

    Gimson threatened to sue, and published a Letter Before Action, but has now backed down again.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBI0pjC37KE

    Majority 5k. Tories currently favourite. Hmmm.

    Another constituency where similar problems are brewing for Labour is Arfon (hyper margins with Plaid Cymru).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50332415

    Sion Jones is the only Labour Councillor on Gwynedd Council.

    (He is also the thickest Councillor on Gwynedd Council, but that is by the way).
  • timmo said:

    Far more important to overall turnout could be this postal strike...
    It will hit some regions far more than others with postal votes..are there any contingency plans?

    I think this is true.

    The other matter which could really affect turnout would be a MAJOR snowstorm with substantial drifting - we had one on 9 Dec 2009 as I remember.
    Do local officials have any discretion to extend polling into a subsequent day, for example if the Sheffield weather had been on polling day presumably some kind of extension could be applied?
This discussion has been closed.