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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.
We haven’t yet looked at the series pf English regional polls that YouGov carried out last month and and only just published them. This is the first time I can recall this form of polling being carried out across England and the results help us to see where parties are doing well.
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I have a theory, which is based on a limited dataset, so may well be completely wrong:
Betting markets are overly influenced by the last election, and in particular the errors in polling in the last elections. This issue is exacerbated by polling companies changing their methodologies between elections and possibly overcorrecting.
So. 2010 - Labour did much better, and the Conservatives much worse than expected.
In 2015, the expectation, then, was that the Conservatives would fail to meet their expectations and we'd get another hung parliament. In fact, the Conservatives outperformed, and Labour underperformed.
2017, this reversed, with the Conservatives doing less well, and the Labour Party doing much better.
Based on three datapoints during which fortunes switched, I will forecast the same will happen again, and Labour will do worse than expected, and the Conservatives better.
Pidcock losing her seat may knock her out of the leadership race. Looks like Con gain on these figures.
Maybe. The polling does look bad, but neither of the last two elections ended the way they started. I still suspect the incumbent will screw up a number of debates and the prime beneficiary may well be Corbyn.
The Lib Dems are doing much better than last time, but there's already some polling evidence of squeeze and they start from a very long way behind in most constituencies. Their tally from this election should be much closer to Paddy Ashdown in 1992 than Charles Kennedy in 2005.
Interestingly, if you look at LibDem/Liberal General Election performances in the last 70-odd years, you see quite a lot of seat totals in the 5 to 22 level, and a few between 45 and 60-odd, and nothing in between. Which means that my new forecast is right in no man's land.
Needs a big change to stop Johnson.
Labour defections won't be enough to get the yellows over the line in any more than a handful of Tory-held seats.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gbrpolls/status/1193198127588745217
OGH's bet is an excellent one, because the assumption is that the Labour Party will do better than the polls. (As an aside, if these polls are correct, the LDs are also going to outperform my expectations.)
Edit- btw, I think it was three survivors outside London - Bristol South, Thurrock and Ipswich (which somehow Labour lost in 1987 instead).
I honestly could live with that.
Can you stop saying "robots" please.
It's becoming a little robotic.
I cannot see a single Lab gain to compensate, and neither can I see enough LD gains.
Maybe not, but Corbyn is still LotO
The correct term is 'synthetic life form'.
....
I’d advise people to look at how awful Labour were doing then , indeed the Tories are doing worse now compared to the same time period before the June 2017 GE.
This was a recent highlight
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1174966536777293824
It's happened before...
https://youtu.be/u_DZmgArjqU
Off to the match now, a tasty but soggy affair. I hate the gunners...
You never said anything about an android being on board, why not?
Burke:
It never uhm, never occurred to me. It's common practice, we always have a synthetic on board.
Bishop:
I prefer the term "Artificial Person" myself.
But most importantly Brexit was not even on the horizon then. Corbyn's pathological refusal to state which side he supports will sink Labour in both Leave and Remain seats.
All Boris has to do is stay disciplined in the debates - tricky for him at times granted - and then let Corbyn dig Labour's Brexit sized grave all by himself.
Why why why can't Labour get the electoral kicking they so richly deserve, just this once? It's been a long time since 1983...
Anyway, should that happen I reckon that they'd pick Gove. Which would be somewhat ironic.
Imagine the subsequent by election though. It would be an absolute circus, and if he lost again he would have no option but to resign. (See Patrick Gordon-Walker).
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1193191248733069312?s=20
They're still working on the AI aspect.
In order for Labour to be replaced in England there would need to be some sort of epochal upheaval here to match that which saw Labour overthrown by the SNP in Scotland. Sadly there is no sign of any such thing in prospect.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-sixth-form-students-trapped-room-nottinghamshire-general-election-a9196231.html
I was genuinally astonsished at how well the Cons are doing there. Had two neighbouring houses who each said that Dr. Sarah Wollaston was "a waste of space". Sorry, PClipp.
Corbyn is voter-repellent. Unprompted diatribes again.
On the flip side, I did have my first incandescent Leftie at my being on his doorstep. Tories are "all fucking arseholes", apparently.
Still, not bad...
...for a human
@NickPalmer said a few threads ago that YouGov had just added the last few polls together to make regional numbers. I.e. basically aggregate sub samples
I’m cynical about his fidelity when political convenience takes precedence
So is he right or are these properly weighted & balanced regional polls?
They are more likely to be sub 150 than over 200
For starters, they re-formed Germany.
Idk, but I get the sense that the population of bettors sometimes puts heart over head when it comes to tail outcomes for Labour. I remember two years ago getting odds of, like, 1/4 on Burgon in Leeds East, when it was already clear that Corbyn had rallied the base, if not quite up to the Gordon Brown levels of support that he eventually achieved.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1193213289511243777
And on Friday 13th, one of them will be filmed walking into 10 Downing Street.
It'll make the Brexit shitstorm look like a minor squall.
FWIW, he currently has the Tories winning 373 seats, Labour on 182 and LibDems on 25, giving the Blue Team an overall majority of 96, or actually into three figures if Sinn Fein MPs again fail to take up their seats in the HoC.
Assuming that in places like Liverpool, Manchester and Inner London the 20,000+ majority electorates are more or less remaining loyal to the Corbyn plan, could that mean that in places like Birmingham and the Midlands, the South and possibly even in Wales they are going to go from 1st to 3rd or even 4th in one election?
We have often talked about whether English Labour could face a Scottish Labour 2015 type meltdown. Could this be that election or will we see polls this evening showing Labour put clear red water between them and the Liberals in these polls and possibly narrowing the Tory lead? I was struck by the very normal folk SKY interviewed in Thurrock yesterday and only one said she was sticking with Labour. Indeed one wee lady started on the "my father always voted Labour, my mother always voted Labour and I've always voted Labour... but for the 1st time in my life and I would never have believed it possible, I am voting for Boris because I think he will get it done and we must get it [Brexit] done."
Good evening, everyone.
Ironically, he is probably the greenest candidate, what with the Greens not standing in Totnes.
Its up to each others' side to point out the robots on the other.
Howdy, kle4, I haven't spoken to you since the last election, right? Please tell me you've started watching 'The Expanse'?