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SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What might mess up Tory strategy – Brexit is a much much bigger deal for CON voters than LAB ones

Lord Ashcroft polls

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Comments

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited November 2019
    'A man in New Hampshire attempted to register for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary on Friday using an interesting nickname: “Epstein Didn’t Kill Himself.”

    New Hampshire law allows nicknames on the ballot, but doesn’t allow use of a nickname that “constitutes a slogan or otherwise associates the candidate with a cause or issue.”'

    https://lawandcrime.com/live-trials/live-trials-current/jeffrey-epstein/man-attempts-to-run-for-president-in-new-hampshire-as-epstein-didnt-kill-himself/
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Second!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    So, any consensus amongst LDs as to whether an informal Remain alliance is better than relying on the public to be tactical on their own? How many more LDs will 'do a BXP' and concede to Labour? Will Labour voters return the favour even if the party does not?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    It would appear that Brexit is much more important than Remain, if that makes sense.

    Extreme Remain plus Nicola Murray isn't going to butter enough voter parsnips to see the LDs make the genuine breakthrough I had hoped for.

    They're going to be squeezed by LAB right until election day. I feel that the result could be very similar to 2017.

    :(
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    This was from 2017. After 2.5 years of failing to make progress I suspect these will be substantially different now.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    kle4 said:

    So, any consensus amongst LDs as to whether an informal Remain alliance is better than relying on the public to be tactical on their own? How many more LDs will 'do a BXP' and concede to Labour? Will Labour voters return the favour even if the party does not?

    Assuming you mean the LD candidates who are standing down in Labour marginals? Better than tactical voting because loads of voters just don't know what the situation is to vote tactically (see polls about likely election outcomes for example, people have no idea).

    How many more? Not many I expect. The parties aren't very friendly and lots of LDs hate Corbyn.

    Will Labour voters return the favour? No. Barely any voters will even know that the LD candidates in a handful of seats that aren't theirs stood down, so barely any will even be able to act on the information. And most people that engaged in politics have strong views so rarely swing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2019
    I think the idea that Labour leave voters don't care about Brexit is similar to the idea that voters in general didn't care about the EU before 2016... ;)
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2019
    Hopefully BXP will stand down in the remaining 200+ and make life similar for everyone.
  • kle4 said:

    So, any consensus amongst LDs as to whether an informal Remain alliance is better than relying on the public to be tactical on their own? How many more LDs will 'do a BXP' and concede to Labour? Will Labour voters return the favour even if the party does not?

    I think LD standing down for Lab only really works in Lab-held Remianian Con targets, which is a very short list.
  • Scrap that about Canterbury 😂

    LDs still intend to stand, so I'll put it back in the CON GAIN column. https://t.co/pBIU7yEY9I
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    FPT:
    Gabs2 said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Seeing that same still-frame of Boris in a lot of the posts above, I'm struck by how profoundly unattractive he is (to my eyes, obviously this is highly subjective). It got me thinking about the attractiveness or otherwise of the main-two party leaders of my lifetime.

    Trying to adjust somewhat for age, here's my definitive and highly judgemental list:

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Tony Blair
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something"
    John Major
    Gordon Brown
    Ed Miliband

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Genuine LOL.
    I could try to claim that I'm thinking about how appearances will play with the voters and put a betting angle on it, but in truth I'm just being a bitch.
    Foot and Thatcher rank lowest to my eye. You seem to be harsh on Boris and Callaghan.
    It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category.
    Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,706
    GIN1138 said:

    I think the idea that Labour leave voters don't care about Brexit is similar to the idea that voters in general didn't care about the EU before 2016... ;)

    There are 4 Labour Leave voters in Chez BJO.

    We dont care about BXT compared to getting the Tories out
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    I've said for a long time that swing is not universal and that there is a structural swing in all elections. how TBP running in some seats and not others plus the remain alliance should work in calculators is that they need to deal with the parties who are actually standing and making an estimate on how the parties who are not standing break. It's not simple but you could make some assumptions on how, say, green party voters will break when the green party are not standing.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited November 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    I think the idea that Labour leave voters don't care about Brexit is similar to the idea that voters in general didn't care about the EU before 2016... ;)

    Some people who voted to Leave the EU, I have met did not know what the EU happened to be or what membership meant. I have even met people who live abroad under EU freedom of movement rules who voted to Leave because they did not like the immigrants in the UK! :confused: There are a lot of very stupid people about but I would also say that PB tends to attract the more enlightened Leavers who do understand the structures and rights associated with EU membership. I disagree with them but as I am entitled to a view, so are they.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    CatMan said:
    I wonder what the response would have been had the words "freedom of movement" been used.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Noo said:


    It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category.
    Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.

    Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:

    Beautiful:
    Nick Clegg

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Ming Campbell
    Tony Blair
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something":
    John Major
    Charles Kennedy
    Gordon Brown
    David Steel
    Ed Miliband
    Vince Cable

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jo Swinson
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Tim Farron
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    Noo said:

    Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:

    Beautiful:
    Nick Clegg

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Ming Campbell
    Tony Blair
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something":
    John Major
    Charles Kennedy
    Gordon Brown
    David Steel
    Ed Miliband
    Vince Cable

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jo Swinson
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Tim Farron
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.

    You've clearly been thinking about this WAAAAAAAAAY to hard.
  • Noo said:

    Noo said:


    It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category.
    Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.

    Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:

    Beautiful:
    Nick Clegg

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Ming Campbell
    Tony Blair
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something":
    John Major
    Charles Kennedy
    Gordon Brown
    David Steel
    Ed Miliband
    Vince Cable

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jo Swinson
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Tim Farron
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
    Were you involved in one of Clegg's bed post scratchings?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    I wonder what the response would have been had the words "freedom of movement" been used.
    That would imply that you think those who want the right to live and work in EU countries don’t understand that that is free movement.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Scrap that about Canterbury 😂

    LDs still intend to stand, so I'll put it back in the CON GAIN column. https://t.co/pBIU7yEY9I

    I think Labour will hold it.

    This is the realignment election that 2017 was supposed to be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    I wonder what the response would have been had the words "freedom of movement" been used.
    That would imply that you think those who want the right to live and work in EU countries don’t understand that that is free movement.
    People seriously use People's Vote or Final Say rather than Second Referendum supposedly because it polls better despite them being the same thingt, it doesn't seem absurd that using different words might result in a different share.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    nunu2 said:

    Scrap that about Canterbury 😂

    LDs still intend to stand, so I'll put it back in the CON GAIN column. https://t.co/pBIU7yEY9I

    I think Labour will hold it.

    This is the realignment election that 2017 was supposed to be.
    Anecdotally it does feel like trends that saw results or near results like that will accelerate this time.
  • Dunno about rest of the article, but it got me when it started with Glengarry Glenross...

    https://reaction.life/dealbreaker-what-if-nigel-farage-has-a-point/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    I wonder what the response would have been had the words "freedom of movement" been used.
    Ah, the old Obamacare vs Affordable Care Act conundrum.
  • Revolutions always consume the revolutionaries .. :D:D
  • 'Great response on the doorsteps' klaxon:

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1194347250425700353
  • Twitter

    Exclusive: Labour To Complain To Ofcom About Sky News 'Brexit Election' slogan.
    https://t.co/KGETUhgQXZ
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841
    @Noo

    Mrs May was more attractive than that - especially the look she had when she lambasted the police federation. She was genuinely alluring that day - as she lambasted all those policemen.

    And your biggest category error - Ed Miliband. He's a 10. He could be lead singer in an arty pop band if he wasn't a politician.

    Apart from these 2 edits - good work.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Twitter

    Exclusive: Labour To Complain To Ofcom About Sky News 'Brexit Election' slogan.
    https://t.co/KGETUhgQXZ

    I think that's a valid complaint.
  • Revolutions always consume the revolutionaries .. :D:D
    I think it was Mandelson who said that Brexit would defeat Brexit.

    And so here we are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    CatMan said:
    Isn't that quite ambiguous? People could take it to mean as a general principle or relating to EU citizens already here and Brits already in the EU?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,841

    Twitter

    Exclusive: Labour To Complain To Ofcom About Sky News 'Brexit Election' slogan.
    https://t.co/KGETUhgQXZ

    That could well be upheld.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    edited November 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182

    Noo said:

    Noo said:


    It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category.
    Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.

    Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:

    Beautiful:
    Nick Clegg

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Ming Campbell
    Tony Blair
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something":
    John Major
    Charles Kennedy
    Gordon Brown
    David Steel
    Ed Miliband
    Vince Cable

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jo Swinson
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Tim Farron
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
    Were you involved in one of Clegg's bed post scratchings?
    I think it was Sunil who described May as a PMILF.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    dr_spyn said:

    Perhaps he will be more careful with booking his expenses.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50396788

    Just plain silly. The Chairman says he must be allowed to move on, but why that means being given another chance, so soon, to be an MP, is crazy.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    RobD said:

    Twitter

    Exclusive: Labour To Complain To Ofcom About Sky News 'Brexit Election' slogan.
    https://t.co/KGETUhgQXZ

    I think that's a valid complaint.
    As do I. The election is required because the government couldn't get it's legislative programme through Parliament, and that issue happened to be Brexit. If an election happened because major NHS reform was unable to be pushed through I'm not so sure they'd frame it "The NHS Election".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    I wonder what the response would have been had the words "freedom of movement" been used.
    (People also get confused by the difference between Schengen and Freedom of Movement.)
  • RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    I wonder what the response would have been had the words "freedom of movement" been used.
    It is certainly a very leading question. I think the realistic question the country needs to be asked is also leading.

    Given we are likely to need immigration of 100k-300k per year to deal with our population curve and job gaps, and that most of that immigration will come from people from poorer countries than the UK, do you prefer immigration is from 1) EU or 2) rest of the world.

    I think a lot of leavers want the premise not to be true and a lot of remainers are blind to the hypocrisy of their preference for 1 whilst calling most leavers racist.

    I think 1 is the right answer partly because it is easier to adapt from most EU countries to the UK than from elsewhere and partly for the benefits it brings our people to live and work in the EU.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Interesting about Buttigieg. I have been banging on about him on here for a while now, and in particular, saying a surprise was coming in Iowa.

    Hope some of you are on. Ever since Axelrod said this guy is the deal many months ago, I've been on. Very very green.


    But DYOR.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Noo said:

    Noo said:


    It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category.
    Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.

    Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:

    Beautiful:
    Nick Clegg

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Ming Campbell
    Tony Blair
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something":
    John Major
    Charles Kennedy
    Gordon Brown
    David Steel
    Ed Miliband
    Vince Cable

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jo Swinson
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Tim Farron
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
    Were you involved in one of Clegg's bed post scratchings?
    Hopefully not one of Cameron’s pork scratchings.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    Cookie said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:


    It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category.
    Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.

    Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:

    Beautiful:
    Nick Clegg

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Ming Campbell
    Tony Blair
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something":
    John Major
    Charles Kennedy
    Gordon Brown
    David Steel
    Ed Miliband
    Vince Cable

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jo Swinson
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Tim Farron
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
    Were you involved in one of Clegg's bed post scratchings?
    I think it was Sunil who described May as a PMILF.
    So he has that in common with Johnson, although with not perhaps quite the same meaning of the word...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
    I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.

    I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.

    I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Noo said:


    It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category.
    Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.

    Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:

    Beautiful:
    Nick Clegg

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Ming Campbell
    Tony Blair
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something":
    John Major
    Charles Kennedy
    Gordon Brown
    David Steel
    Ed Miliband
    Vince Cable

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jo Swinson
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Tim Farron
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
    Were you involved in one of Clegg's bed post scratchings?
    I plead the fifth
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50396788

    Would he be able to fill in an expense claim without fouling it up?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Perhaps he will be more careful with booking his expenses.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50396788

    Just plain silly. The Chairman says he must be allowed to move on, but why that means being given another chance, so soon, to be an MP, is crazy.
    I don’t think it will make much difference to the result. Might push the farming vote further towards Plaid, perhaps.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    edited November 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Turnout is going to be massive.
    Buttigieg is highly unlikely to depress it. Even if he’s selected as the candidate....
  • Apparently Ian Murray's leaflet doesn't mention Jez or Labour at all...

    https://twitter.com/AngelicNat38/status/1194337908578275331
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
    I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.

    I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.

    I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
    That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.

    So I do not know what do to now.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    kinabalu said:

    @Noo

    Mrs May was more attractive than that - especially the look she had when she lambasted the police federation. She was genuinely alluring that day - as she lambasted all those policemen.

    And your biggest category error - Ed Miliband. He's a 10. He could be lead singer in an arty pop band if he wasn't a politician.

    Apart from these 2 edits - good work.

    Haha, Ed Miliband nearly went down into the crazy-eyes category, on account of his crazy eyes. But he's too lovable for such a low rating so I bumped him up. I think his current position is already the fair compromise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Perhaps he will be more careful with booking his expenses.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50396788

    Just plain silly. The Chairman says he must be allowed to move on, but why that means being given another chance, so soon, to be an MP, is crazy.
    I don’t think it will make much difference to the result. Might push the farming vote further towards Plaid, perhaps.
    Sure, but it was a lot of loyalty to let him restand after the recall, why does he deserve another run so soon?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Apparently Ian Murray's leaflet doesn't mention Jez or Labour at all...

    https://twitter.com/AngelicNat38/status/1194337908578275331

    Woah, the Printers note even says it is on behalf of Ian Murray not the Labour Party. Is that okay?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Perhaps he will be more careful with booking his expenses.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50396788

    Just plain silly. The Chairman says he must be allowed to move on, but why that means being given another chance, so soon, to be an MP, is crazy.
    I don’t think it will make much difference to the result. Might push the farming vote further towards Plaid, perhaps.
    Sure, but it was a lot of loyalty to let him restand after the recall, why does he deserve another run so soon?
    Probably because they were short of willing and suitable candidates. It’s also worth remembering he’s a good campaigner and a Welsh speaker.

    It may also have been part of the deal to let him bow out quietly from Brecon, not forgetting he’s still personally popular there.

    I agree, it’s a silly decision, but I doubt if it will change anything.
  • kinabalu said:

    Twitter

    Exclusive: Labour To Complain To Ofcom About Sky News 'Brexit Election' slogan.
    https://t.co/KGETUhgQXZ

    That could well be upheld.
    Probably be too late to change anything.

    The election is only 29 days away
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70.

    Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Noo said:

    kinabalu said:

    @Noo

    Mrs May was more attractive than that - especially the look she had when she lambasted the police federation. She was genuinely alluring that day - as she lambasted all those policemen.

    And your biggest category error - Ed Miliband. He's a 10. He could be lead singer in an arty pop band if he wasn't a politician.

    Apart from these 2 edits - good work.

    Haha, Ed Miliband nearly went down into the crazy-eyes category, on account of his crazy eyes. But he's too lovable for such a low rating so I bumped him up. I think his current position is already the fair compromise.
    “Genuinely alluring” is not a phrase which has ever belonged together with... anyone on that list.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
    I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.

    I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.

    I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
    That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.

    So I do not know what do to now.
    I am thinking of writing on my ballot paper the first bit of Nicholas Watts report on Newsnight earlier this year - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/mar/29/is-this-mps-sweary-response-where-weve-got-to-on-brexit-video

    “Fuck knows. I’m past caring. It’s like the living dead.”

    Just about sums it up.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Apparently Ian Murray's leaflet doesn't mention Jez or Labour at all...

    https://twitter.com/AngelicNat38/status/1194337908578275331

    To all intents and purposes running as an independent, with only one policy: a second referendum. On the EU, that is.

    Do we blame him? No.

    Has he fooled us into thinking a vote for him doesn't equal a vote to endorse Corbyn? Again, no.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President...
    What percentage of the 24% of homo-averse are Republicans ?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
    I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.

    I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.

    I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
    The lib dems will form no formal alliance with the Labour Party, most lib dem members are as anti corbyn as they are anti Johnson but there will always be individuals who seek to get their moment of fame by last minute about face.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    I wanted to pick up on the comments you made last night about LD prospects in the longer term and specifically how a large Conservative victory might work to the LD's advantage.

    This is an argument that gets trotted out every so often - if the Conservatives beat Labour badly enough, the LDs will have the opportunity to take over the role of opposition and challenge Conservative dominance.

    That, even if it happened, would gift the Conservatives a decade in power.

    I remember OGH and I agreeing before the 2010 GE the ideal result would be for Cameron to have a majority of 5-10 seats, a majority but not a comfortable one. A strong LD presence would have been able to harry the new Tory Government and build to a strong 2015 election.

    Having seen Johnson prevaricate and obfuscate with a minority, I'm minded any kind of majority would allow him huge latitude to override Parliamentary scrutiny and govern via diktat from No.10.

    The corollary of that is when (and it's not if) the Johnson Government hits its mid-term, it will be long and harsh with plenty of Conservative Council seats to crop (2021 being a good example).

    I'm sure to keep himself in office Johnson will think nothing of borrowing even more to fund tax cuts to bribe his way through a GE in 2024 but today's borrowing is either tomorrow's tax rises or spending cuts and that will be a lot harder to sell.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70.

    Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
    Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth.

    His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military.

    Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start?

    I have bet they will.



  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    Obviously you are only referring to members of the congregation rather than pastors as the latter have a record which would make Boris blush.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    nichomar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
    I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.

    I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.

    I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
    The lib dems will form no formal alliance with the Labour Party, most lib dem members are as anti corbyn as they are anti Johnson but there will always be individuals who seek to get their moment of fame by last minute about face.
    And yet several LDs on here are quite chipper about the Canterbury move being followed elsewhere. Who is right?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Nigelb said:

    Noo said:

    kinabalu said:

    @Noo

    Mrs May was more attractive than that - especially the look she had when she lambasted the police federation. She was genuinely alluring that day - as she lambasted all those policemen.

    And your biggest category error - Ed Miliband. He's a 10. He could be lead singer in an arty pop band if he wasn't a politician.

    Apart from these 2 edits - good work.

    Haha, Ed Miliband nearly went down into the crazy-eyes category, on account of his crazy eyes. But he's too lovable for such a low rating so I bumped him up. I think his current position is already the fair compromise.
    “Genuinely alluring” is not a phrase which has ever belonged together with... anyone on that list.
    Well quite. It’s like been at one of those awful teenage parties. 10cc’s “I’m not in love” has come on and you’re left with the weird dork to dance with. Or hiding in the loo with a good book before making your escape.
  • Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President...
    What percentage of the 24% of homo-averse are Republicans ?
    Not quite the full answer to that but the party splits to would vote for a gay president are 61% Republican 82% Independent 83% Democrat.

    Over the age 70, all very similar, 63% Republican (notable lack of awareness here!), 62% Independent, 65% Democrat

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/254120/less-half-vote-socialist-president.aspx
  • On Buttigieg. Note the rolled sleeves, white shirt, thin tie. Pure RFK.

  • Guido

    Corbyn Calls for Government to Activate Scheme Already Activated Three Days Ago https://t.co/NQK9Wv3BzF
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70.

    Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
    Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth.

    His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military.

    Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start?

    I have bet they will.



    I think voters tend to choose an opposite when ejecting a leader. Trump is so weird pretty much any candidate could be an opposite, but in particular Sanders might be too similar and Warren and Buttigieg meet the opposite criteria strongly.
  • Cookie said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:


    It's hard to separate out the person from the appearance though. So this kind of exercise is probably doomed to a double-subjectivity. I tried to add the Lib Dems in, but I figured I'm be lynched by the Brexiters for saying that Nick Clegg is a properly beautiful man, and gets his own category.
    Plus, it's really hard to find pictures of Vince Cable looking young. He seems to have been the same age for the past forty years.

    Oh, screw it, here's the Lib Dems too:

    Beautiful:
    Nick Clegg

    Possibly attractive in the right light:
    William Hague
    Ming Campbell
    Tony Blair
    Paddy Ashdown
    David Cameron
    Michael Howard

    Goofy but still got "something":
    John Major
    Charles Kennedy
    Gordon Brown
    David Steel
    Ed Miliband
    Vince Cable

    Gurning lunatics but not totally disgusting:
    Jo Swinson
    Jeremy Corbyn
    Margaret Thatcher
    Theresa May

    Skin crawling:
    Tim Farron
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Neil Kinnock
    James Callaghan

    Hippocrocodogomoose:
    Michael Foot
    Boris Johnson

    Come at me, PB, this is the hill I choose to die on.
    Were you involved in one of Clegg's bed post scratchings?
    I think it was Sunil who described May as a PMILF.
    Naught but Socialist propaganda :blush:
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Guido

    Corbyn Calls for Government to Activate Scheme Already Activated Three Days Ago https://t.co/NQK9Wv3BzF

    I suppose he is following Boris' example, who called for a Brexit agreement very similar to that offered by May nearly a year ago (but with a few extra concessions to the EU).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Except Labour are on just 28% and 29% with Yougov and Survation today, so the Labour vote is already down to its core with pro Brexit 2017 Labour voters already having switched to the Tories or Brexit Party. Boris with Yougov today does not need to convert a single extra Labour voter, as long as he holds the current Tory vote he would still win a landslide
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70.

    Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
    Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth.

    His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military.

    Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start?

    I have bet they will.



    I think voters tend to choose an opposite when ejecting a leader. Trump is so weird pretty much any candidate could be an opposite, but in particular Sanders might be too similar and Warren and Buttigieg meet the opposite criteria strongly.
    Yep. But Warren is McGovern. She will lose is my hunch.

    How will Trump deal with Buttigieg? The "weird name kid"?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70.

    Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
    Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth.

    His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military.

    Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start?

    I have bet they will.



    I think voters tend to choose an opposite when ejecting a leader. Trump is so weird pretty much any candidate could be an opposite, but in particular Sanders might be too similar and Warren and Buttigieg meet the opposite criteria strongly.
    Yep. But Warren is McGovern. She will lose is my hunch.

    How will Trump deal with Buttigieg? The "weird name kid"?
    He would surely go primary school homophobic?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
    I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.

    I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.

    I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
    That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.

    So I do not know what do to now.
    If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see SLab are now trying to claim this election is not about Independence.

    Interesting role reversal there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    CatMan said:
    What a stupid poll question, even the points system Boris wants would still enable EU citizens to live and work in the UK if they have the skills we need
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    State Filing Deadlines which have passed: 2 (Alabama, Arkansas)

    Primaries Andrew Yang will be in: 2
    Primaries Hillary Clinton will be in: 0

    Candidate considered more likely by Betfair punters to win: Hillary Clinton

    (Also, Deval Patrick hasn't filed in either.)
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Nigelb said:

    Noo said:

    kinabalu said:

    @Noo

    Mrs May was more attractive than that - especially the look she had when she lambasted the police federation. She was genuinely alluring that day - as she lambasted all those policemen.

    And your biggest category error - Ed Miliband. He's a 10. He could be lead singer in an arty pop band if he wasn't a politician.

    Apart from these 2 edits - good work.

    Haha, Ed Miliband nearly went down into the crazy-eyes category, on account of his crazy eyes. But he's too lovable for such a low rating so I bumped him up. I think his current position is already the fair compromise.
    “Genuinely alluring” is not a phrase which has ever belonged together with... anyone on that list.
    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. All that Boris blubber could be quite attractive to a male walrus.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu2 said:

    Mayor Pete takes the lead in Iowa.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/home

    He was up to 15% in New Hampshire as well, within 5% of first place.
    How seriously do you rate this meme that African-American Democrats won’t vote (and aren’t ready for) an openly gay man?
    As seriously as I rated the meme that "Evangelicals won't vote for a proven liar and fornicator who paid for abortions for women he had extra-marital affairs with".
    The problem will manifest itself in turnout rather than vote share.
    Sure, but it's swings and roundabouts. A pleasant, clean, sensible, young, Christian ex-veteran who's appealing to suburbanites will do better in swing state Iowa than some of the other candidates.

    I think Buttigieg does better than Biden in Iowa and Arizona. And Wisconsin was won - by a massive margin - by an openly lesbian woman last year, so hard to conclude that gayness is going to be a big negative there. Indeed, the only states where his homosexuality is likely to be a big issue (like North Carolina), were probably out of reach to any Democratic nominee in 2020.
    Only 76% of Americans would be willing to vote for a well qualified gay President, but in turn only 63% of Americans say they would vote for a candidate over 70.

    Given his likely opponents are nearly all over 70 the voters will have to choose one characteristic or other that might not be their first preference.
    Buttigieg represents a completely fresh start just by looking at him thanks to his youth.

    His main pitch has been a new generation plus his experience as a city boss and stuff like serving military.

    Will exhausted Dem primary vote turn away from the oldsters (warren/biden) and throw the dice on a fresh start?

    I have bet they will.

    I think voters tend to choose an opposite when ejecting a leader. Trump is so weird pretty much any candidate could be an opposite, but in particular Sanders might be too similar and Warren and Buttigieg meet the opposite criteria strongly.
    I’d love to see Buttigieg debate Trump.

    Young matador versus demented old bull.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    alb1on said:

    Nigelb said:

    Noo said:

    kinabalu said:

    @Noo

    Mrs May was more attractive than that - especially the look she had when she lambasted the police federation. She was genuinely alluring that day - as she lambasted all those policemen.

    And your biggest category error - Ed Miliband. He's a 10. He could be lead singer in an arty pop band if he wasn't a politician.

    Apart from these 2 edits - good work.

    Haha, Ed Miliband nearly went down into the crazy-eyes category, on account of his crazy eyes. But he's too lovable for such a low rating so I bumped him up. I think his current position is already the fair compromise.
    “Genuinely alluring” is not a phrase which has ever belonged together with... anyone on that list.
    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. All that Boris blubber could be quite attractive to a male walrus.
    To a very hungry polar bear, perhaps.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Alistair said:

    I see SLab are now trying to claim this election is not about Independence.

    Interesting role reversal there.

    If you are pro independence in Scotland you vote SNP, if you are pro Brexit and anti independence you vote Tory, if you are anti Brexit and anti independence you vote LD.

    Which leaves Slab with the rest...and 4th place
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited November 2019

    Apparently Ian Murray's leaflet doesn't mention Jez or Labour at all...

    https://twitter.com/AngelicNat38/status/1194337908578275331

    I'd have a serious think about voting for him in Edinburgh South, probably more so than any other remain & labour candidate. I expect unionist tacticals will get him over the line.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
    I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.

    I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.

    I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
    That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.

    So I do not know what do to now.
    If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
    A kobayashi maru election? How very PB.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,730

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Lib Dems go into any sort of informal alliance with Labour I am going to have to take the Meeks option - abstain in person. NFW am I going to vote Lib Dem if there is even the slightest chance they will prop up Corbyn.

    Understood. You prefer The Clown to The Cold Warrior.
    Many do not want to choose between them, but outside of a few areas, that is not really viable - either, or none, still makes a choice which helps one of them.
    I am in a Labour seat with an 11,000 majority. The Lib Dems may take it - though it is unlikely.

    I don’t want Corbyn anywhere near power. I feel about him - and have felt this since before he became leader - much as Ian Austin does. Corbyn, IMO, is not fit to be a Labour MP and very definitely not leader or PM. His default assumptions and instincts and judgment are, IMO, wrong and misguided. His political moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    I could say much the same about Johnson. I do not want the Tories in power - let alone with a large majority. They have lost any chance of getting my vote. They have been taken over by the Brexit party.

    I hope both Corbyn and Johnson can lose and never be heard of again.

    I had intended to vote Lib Dems in the vain hope that they are vaguely sensible and neither batshit insane nor malicious.
    That’s roughly what I’ve been saying for months. But here I don’t even have that choice to make as the Oranges have run away, endorsing the Greens who we all know are Corbyn with extra environmentalism.

    So I do not know what do to now.
    If all the remaining available choices are utterly repellent, then abstention could be considered honourable?
    As a last resort, it’s an option I am considering. But it really feels like ducking responsibility.
  • HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:
    What a stupid poll question, even the points system Boris wants would still enable EU citizens to live and work in the UK if they have the skills we need
    We have a points based system of immigration already.......

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/points-based-system-tier-2
  • HYUFD said:

    Except Labour are on just 28% and 29% with Yougov and Survation today, so the Labour vote is already down to its core with pro Brexit 2017 Labour voters already having switched to the Tories or Brexit Party. Boris with Yougov today does not need to convert a single extra Labour voter, as long as he holds the current Tory vote he would still win a landslide

    Bloody Survation fieldwork was from last week! I will have to adjust ELBOW for week-ending 10th Nov again!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:



    What a stupid poll question, even the points system Boris wants would still enable EU citizens to live and work in the UK if they have the skills we need

    The question no one wants to ask or answer is what about the EU citizens already here who don't "have the skills we need".

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    CatMan said:
    What a stupid poll question, even the points system Boris wants would still enable EU citizens to live and work in the UK if they have the skills we need
    That is either stupid or deliberately disingenuous. The key word in the poll is “right”. Do you know what a legal right is? We already have a points based system for people outside the EEA but they have no “right”, as the poll puts it, to live here. And we have no rights to live in their countries. Moving here is an unnatainable privilege that your xenophobic party and leader, based on the current operation of the points based system which dissuades people from wanting to move here, wants to deprive everyone of. You know that but are simply spouting what your hive mind has told you to spout today.
This discussion has been closed.