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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings are wors
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings are worse for the incumbent than Major faced just before Blair’s GE1997 landslide
I was so taken by David Herdson’s observation in the previous thread header about how poor the current Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings that I thought I would dig into the pollster’s huge archive to see if there were historical precdents.
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I get the fear of Corbyn is part of that - but it's so out of line, it's extraordinary.
[p.s. I am obviously blueblue, having lost my years-old email account with no way to recover it!]
That's why i'm not sure government satisfaction ratings are particularly instructive any more.
I think some of it comes down to the fact that as standalone policies they sound pretty attractive. A polling question which essentially comes down to "would you like free broadband?" is probably going to elicit a similar response to saying "would you like a free puppy and a wallet with £1,000 in it?"
Maybe the divide between the policies and the Labour rating is because, taken as a whole, there are questions of competence, leadership and deliverability when considered as a party voting intention as a whole. Certainly there are things Labour say that I would support - broadly speaking, I think that the current way of running the trains doesn't work and I'd support a return to public ownership, at least in the short to medium term. But I couldn't bring myself to vote for the Labour Party because I feel they'd trash the economy and I really don't like Corbyn.
The opinion polls suggested that the voters were willing to give Brown the benefit of the doubt in a similar way at first too, so it's not that unusual. It's a question of how long it lasts, as David Herdson asked earlier.
Imagine how tense you'll be feeling at 10pm on Thursday 12th December, as we're poised on the edge of our seats waiting for the exit poll.. It wouldn't take a huge amount to go from:
*BONG* CONSERVATIVES LARGEST PARTY... 305 seats.. to..
*BONG* CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY... 365 seats.
There could be an error of +/- 30 seats (or more) in either which way you predict it around your central forecast, and that is affecting my betting this year.
It's much flatter than you think.
Hence Boris can be more popular and sort of run as the change candidate.
Ain't too proud to beg 😊
Doesn’t excuse he appalling judgement and taste in friends though. No more Gvt role for him and he should be off the civil list.
*I might be wrong about that, Special Branch protection isn’t always as widespread as assumed.
Besides, it's not like they arent all in on it. Epstein isn't just some random pedo, he was friends with people right through politics royalty and hollywood. Just look at his plane logs and who holidayed on his island. Just how deep and far abuse goes is the great untold secret of the rich and famous
Tory vote in 2010 was 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 23%.
Where have those Lib Dems gone?
https://twitter.com/AlanOlive1/status/1195764809121370112
Odd how Labour supporters are up in arms about Mike Gapes, and Chris Leslie using a similar house style for leaflets and cards.
Edit - Oh drops as in “removed”. Yes, getting rid of an impossible policy is sensible.
So actually quite moderate again. Interesting.
Part of the reason the pollsters have been having trouble recently could be just that their key assumption of normally distributed error around a central observation simply isn't appropriate any more.
‘Not a moderate’ would cover it. Or ‘no moderates will survive his leadership.’ Or ‘moderates have given up on Corbyn.’
Spoiler - hes lying
Bearing in mind the media stories were about forcing it, making it voluntary is moderate. And within a decade even more so.
The manifesto will be a lot more moderate than the Tories and others expect - and I think there will be a poll boost over the next two weeks.
In 1983 there was no European Union. It was the European Communities that Labour proposed to leave.
I believe a Kantar poll had Labour in the lead but the weighting made it a 10 point lead for the Tories.
Bet365 have priced up Aberdeen north
SNP 1/25
Labour 8/1
Con 40/1
So looks like my anti-separatist vote is Team Commie. If Corbyn is PM cus of this I ll let him borrow my calculator.
@Richard_Tyndall will be handing me my coat again...
I’m a union rep (though very definitely don’t fund Labour) and regularly see the benefits of collective bargaining in an employer; but there won’t be many sectors where unions can argue for the same “buy in” for the whole sector as with an employer in which they are recognised.
Which is the point, really. This policy and the working directive appears to be a function of Labour’s support being almost entirely public sector where such things as short working, working from home and sectoral bargaining are normal. In the private sector, where they have almost entirely disappeared after Wapping in 1986, they will simply be laughed at.
Edit - More seriously anyone proposing this has to explain why the £450m isn’t better spent on [insert popular NHS funding cause here].
Sigh.
It’s not the checks that are the problem. Getting the teeth checked is cheap and quick. Getting the fecking treatment done is the expensive bit. And that’s speaking as somebody on a good salary who doesn’t eat many sugary foods.