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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit

As the late United States President, LBJ once said “Politics is the ability to count”. Currently the polls and the betting markets have a Conservative Majority as the most likely outcome, but these are fallible; the manifestoes are not out yet and the nation may not be comfortable with the idea of a large Tory Majority Gov’t.

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Comments

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Strange. Vanilla requested/demanded that I create a new password, and now I have my original name back, after many years!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    TimT said:

    Strange. Vanilla requested/demanded that I create a new password, and now I have my original name back, after many years!

    Well welcome back TimT then!

    I had to reset pwd too.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?
  • TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Is it me or have the LD leaflets been even worse this election than usual?

  • Mr. T, I think everybody had to reset their passwords.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited November 2019
    On topic, I can't the LD's being very helpful to a Tory Government for some years, and in any event I can't see them wanting to move far for Johnson.

    It's rather like what was said in Feb 74; whoever won or didn't win the election, you who called it lost!
  • It would be fun to have a thread with Tories starting at 326 and going up in bands of 10. No-one appears to have answered my question on the last thread which was, which seat do PBers think will be the first declared which changes hands, which seat will it be and to whom will it go?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    The named Jason Zadrozny has popped up a couple of times recently I note.

    On the whole I agree the pulpstar's broad analysis. We've had a lot of rebellions, and admirably people going indy or defecting to back up their words, unlike those who constantly moan about things but never act any differently, but the aftermath of a GE will not see that happen. I believe Stephen Lloyd, for instance, is being clear he would not commit to backing any deal this time.
  • Sandpit said:

    According to former employees, Starlizard’s syndicate are looking for a return of 1% to 3%, which means they’re turning over ridiculous sums of money. To make £100 million on a 3% margin the syndicate would have to be wagering £3.3 billion!

    https://www.blog.tradematesports.com/jonas-gjelstad-professional-sports-bettor/2019/8/13/how-the-brighton-football-club-owner-tony-bloom-got-rich-on-sports-betting-10-people-who-got-rich-on-sports-betting

    A great series of articles on the likes of Bloom, Haralabos Voulgaris (the greatest ever NBA bettor), Billy Walters and others.

    There was a really in-depth article about Tony Bloom somewhere on the interwebs but I can't find it at the mo. It was fascinating reading.

    Yes but that £3 billion is turnover, not spend. I expect any of the regular punters on here will be turning over many times their income. Harry Findlay's book, Gambling For Life, is interesting on Bloom from the other side.
    Yes I know its turn-over...but just to put into perspective the sort of scale of the amount of cash flowing through his network over the course of a year.

    What is the most amazing thing is how he has managed to keep all of this so much in the shadows. He owns a Premier League team, but never gives interviews. He owns his modelling company, but it basically doesn't leak any info. Other than betting in Asia, specializing in Asian handicap score predictions, nothing more is public knowledge, despite having been doing this for years.
    His employees are clearly *very* well looked after, and don’t tend to turn over too much.
    If I remember correctly, the staff have a betting fund setup for them which is managed on their behalf and they see the profits from it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Excellent header, thanks @Pulpstar
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Interesting header Pulpstar.

    I think there're a couple of layers in the upper reaches.

    A big Tory majority allows Boris to really tough-it-out with the EU. I actually think he wants a reasonably soft sort of trade deal, but I'm sure he wants a deal. A slimmer overall majority makes him more vulnerable to delay tactics from the EU. I don't think realistically that'll happen unless the margins are wafer thin.

    The middle bands might be changed by the Tories just sitting back and saying to the LDs - no deal unless you agree to the deal. The LDs are apparently 'anything but Leave', however they'll go for 'Leave with a deal' over no-deal any day.

    Corbyn and co may or may not wibble some sort of crap along the way. Who cares.



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2019

    It would be fun to have a thread with Tories starting at 326 and going up in bands of 10. No-one appears to have answered my question on the last thread which was, which seat do PBers think will be the first declared which changes hands, which seat will it be and to whom will it go?

    10000 majority for Labour in Sunderland Central, one of the first seats to declare. If it is a Boris landslide, then maybe there? But seems very unlikely.

    In which case possibly Workington being the first to change hands, Lab to Con, since it declared around 0045 last time, swang to Tories last time, and has a sub 4k majority. Which may well explain why it was chosen to be a big deal at the start of the campaign.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    It would be fun to have a thread with Tories starting at 326 and going up in bands of 10. No-one appears to have answered my question on the last thread which was, which seat do PBers think will be the first declared which changes hands, which seat will it be and to whom will it go?

    It'll go blue. The other questions are harder though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    kle4 said:

    The named Jason Zadrozny has popped up a couple of times recently I note.

    On the whole I agree the pulpstar's broad analysis. We've had a lot of rebellions, and admirably people going indy or defecting to back up their words, unlike those who constantly moan about things but never act any differently, but the aftermath of a GE will not see that happen. I believe Stephen Lloyd, for instance, is being clear he would not commit to backing any deal this time.

    Could he win as an Indie?
  • Former Starlizard staff don’t earn the top dollar that The Lizard does. Betters will earn between £25,000 and £40,000 depending on their role, which is roughy in-line with what they’d earn at a bookies. “Quants” get what they would have made at a bank.

    On the other hand, pass probation and they might be in line for the big bucks (eventually). According to former employees, at this point employees are summoned to the finance director Adam Franks’ office and offered a stake in Bloom’s syndicate, which pays out winnings twice a year. It’s a multi-million pound pot, and pay-outs are rumoured to range from less than £100 to more than £500,000.

    These select Starlizard staff don’t need to pay to join – the winnings are doled out like a bonus. A ‘bonus’ bonus – as winnings generated through gambling are tax exempt from tax under UK law.

    https://thetab.com/2016/02/10/the-best-football-gambler-in-the-world-is-hiring-73680
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,746
    edited November 2019
    Looking forward to seeing a Tory rolling up their sleeves and getting out to speak to me on my doorstep. There's a first time for everything.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    timmo said:

    Good..Gymiah is a disgraceful individual
    Strong words - any particular reason?
  • kle4 said:

    timmo said:

    Good..Gymiah is a disgraceful individual
    Strong words - any particular reason?
    His past actions haven't always been beneficial to the advancement of Boris Johnson's career?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    kle4 said:

    It would be fun to have a thread with Tories starting at 326 and going up in bands of 10. No-one appears to have answered my question on the last thread which was, which seat do PBers think will be the first declared which changes hands, which seat will it be and to whom will it go?

    10000 majority for Labour in Sunderland Central, one of the first seats to declare. If it is a Boris landslide, then maybe there? But seems very unlikely.

    In which case possibly Workington being the first to change hands, Lab to Con, since it declared around 0045 last time, swang to Tories last time, and has a sub 4k majority. Which may well explain why it was chosen to be a big deal at the start of the campaign.
    Sunderland Central is an interesting bet for first seat to change hands. Tories will be just 3% or so off winning.

    Someone should suggest such a market to BF.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    "For more than 20 years, he has displayed a banner proclaiming his Christian beliefs while preaching the Gospel at Speaker’s Corner.

    But last Sunday, at the nation’s historic home of free speech, two police officers told Roland Parsons he could no longer show his slogans and ordered him to remove them.

    The 72-year-old former engineer has now vowed to go to court to challenge their actions. "

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7693963/Christian-banned-displaying-banner-proclaiming-beliefs-vows-challenge-court.html
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    kle4 said:

    Is it me or have the LD leaflets been even worse this election than usual?

    Politics has been so much more volatile recently that there's a greater range of election results to choose from when putting together your leaflet, which creates greater opportunities for shenanigans, but not necessarily a greater inclination for them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Former Starlizard staff don’t earn the top dollar that The Lizard does. Betters will earn between £25,000 and £40,000 depending on their role, which is roughy in-line with what they’d earn at a bookies. “Quants” get what they would have made at a bank.

    On the other hand, pass probation and they might be in line for the big bucks (eventually). According to former employees, at this point employees are summoned to the finance director Adam Franks’ office and offered a stake in Bloom’s syndicate, which pays out winnings twice a year. It’s a multi-million pound pot, and pay-outs are rumoured to range from less than £100 to more than £500,000.

    These select Starlizard staff don’t need to pay to join – the winnings are doled out like a bonus. A ‘bonus’ bonus – as winnings generated through gambling are tax exempt from tax under UK law.

    https://thetab.com/2016/02/10/the-best-football-gambler-in-the-world-is-hiring-73680

    So, reading between the lines, former employees get a six-figure tax-free income for life* from the syndicate. No wonder they keep themselves to themselves.

    *as long as they don’t upset The Lizard.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    :o

    For more fun click on the speak icon on the Welsh side.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Now if that hasnt entertained you enough...

    First enter Green.....

    Then enter The Green (political) party... you need to enter (political) to get the right meaning of party...but then drop it
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited November 2019
    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    However to be quick - there are three marginal Lab seats where it may well make a substantial difference - Dudley North, Canterbury and Bristol North West.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    Penddu2 said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Now if that hasnt entertained you enough...

    First enter Green.....

    Then enter The Green (political) party... you need to enter (political) to get the right meaning of party...but then drop it
    And to think that we do this for fun whenever an English speaker enters the pub!

  • FPT @Barnesian
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    No BXP candidate in this seat. Only candidates are Tory, Labour, Lib Dems and Green.

    Ok I'm assuming no BXP only in Tory seats. I'll have a look at that later.
    A quick cludge (I've turned Bristol NW into a Con seat in 2017. I must remember to turn it back again)

    Con/Lab/LD/Grn

    No tactical voting 43/40/13/4
    Tactical voting 44/43/12/1

    This is now a Tory gain in both cases. It shows the benefit to the Tories of BXP not standing in non-Tory seats. I'm going to have to go through all the non-Tory seats to find where the BXP is not standing. Anyone got a link to nominations?
    Thank you this has been an interesting mathematical exercise.

    I'm curious about your tactical voting assumptions. In particular given the Greens managed 2.3% here last time after the candidate withdrew from campaigning and endorsed Labour ... being squeezed down from 4 to 1 seems implausible. However I appreciate that could be rounding.

    Could you please share your figures to 1 decimal point?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    It would be fun to have a thread with Tories starting at 326 and going up in bands of 10. No-one appears to have answered my question on the last thread which was, which seat do PBers think will be the first declared which changes hands, which seat will it be and to whom will it go?

    10000 majority for Labour in Sunderland Central, one of the first seats to declare. If it is a Boris landslide, then maybe there? But seems very unlikely.

    In which case possibly Workington being the first to change hands, Lab to Con, since it declared around 0045 last time, swang to Tories last time, and has a sub 4k majority. Which may well explain why it was chosen to be a big deal at the start of the campaign.
    Sunderland Central is an interesting bet for first seat to change hands. Tories will be just 3% or so off winning.

    Someone should suggest such a market to BF.
    Labour will hang on there by a thousand votes (It's a seat they should probably never lose) and Julie Elliot will celebrate like she's won the world cup.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    So, any new polls? :p
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Tyt tyt...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    RobD said:

    So, any new polls? :p

    Didn’t you get enough yesterday?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited November 2019
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    So, any new polls? :p

    Didn’t you get enough yesterday?
    But that was yesterday!
  • Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
  • kle4 said:

    It would be fun to have a thread with Tories starting at 326 and going up in bands of 10. No-one appears to have answered my question on the last thread which was, which seat do PBers think will be the first declared which changes hands, which seat will it be and to whom will it go?

    10000 majority for Labour in Sunderland Central, one of the first seats to declare. If it is a Boris landslide, then maybe there? But seems very unlikely.

    In which case possibly Workington being the first to change hands, Lab to Con, since it declared around 0045 last time, swang to Tories last time, and has a sub 4k majority. Which may well explain why it was chosen to be a big deal at the start of the campaign.
    The Sunderland outcome with AndyJS's excellent spreadsheet was an early indication we'd voted to Leave. I don't for one second believe the Tories will win Sunderland Central but if they even come close that could indicate a very long (or early) night for Labour supporters.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    https://twitter.com/mattsingh_/status/1195305769907957760?s=21
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    I'd agree with most of the header though I don't think Johnson will do a deal with the Lib Dems for a confirmatory referendum. That was the move that finished off Theresa May. I also think that if the Corbynites still control Labour they might whip against a referendum that didn't have a "Labour Deal" on the ballot paper, which could see such a referendum fall if the ERG rebel.

    I think that the 295-312 zone is a stasis zone where no side is necessarily stronger to overcome another. Could still lead to an accidental no deal.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    However to be quick - there are three marginal Lab seats where it may well make a substantial difference - Dudley North, Canterbury and Bristol North West.

    Thanks. I'll follow that up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    I'd agree with most of the header though I don't think Johnson will do a deal with the Lib Dems for a confirmatory referendum. That was the move that finished off Theresa May. I also think that if the Corbynites still control Labour they might whip against a referendum that didn't have a "Labour Deal" on the ballot paper, which could see such a referendum fall if the ERG rebel.

    I think that the 295-312 zone is a stasis zone where no side is necessarily stronger to overcome another. Could still lead to an accidental no deal.

    295 - 312 (The exact numbers are tricky) is a difficult zone to work out particularly if the Lib Dems have done well. It was the one I scratched my head the most about and yes it could still be an accidental no-deal.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited November 2019

    FPT @Barnesian

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    No BXP candidate in this seat. Only candidates are Tory, Labour, Lib Dems and Green.

    Ok I'm assuming no BXP only in Tory seats. I'll have a look at that later.
    A quick cludge (I've turned Bristol NW into a Con seat in 2017. I must remember to turn it back again)

    Con/Lab/LD/Grn

    No tactical voting 43/40/13/4
    Tactical voting 44/43/12/1

    This is now a Tory gain in both cases. It shows the benefit to the Tories of BXP not standing in non-Tory seats. I'm going to have to go through all the non-Tory seats to find where the BXP is not standing. Anyone got a link to nominations?
    Thank you this has been an interesting mathematical exercise.

    I'm curious about your tactical voting assumptions. In particular given the Greens managed 2.3% here last time after the candidate withdrew from campaigning and endorsed Labour ... being squeezed down from 4 to 1 seems implausible. However I appreciate that could be rounding.

    Could you please share your figures to 1 decimal point?
    Bristol Greens might be a special local case. My model doesn't warrant decimal point accuracy!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Pulpstar said:

    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    It would be fun to have a thread with Tories starting at 326 and going up in bands of 10. No-one appears to have answered my question on the last thread which was, which seat do PBers think will be the first declared which changes hands, which seat will it be and to whom will it go?

    10000 majority for Labour in Sunderland Central, one of the first seats to declare. If it is a Boris landslide, then maybe there? But seems very unlikely.

    In which case possibly Workington being the first to change hands, Lab to Con, since it declared around 0045 last time, swang to Tories last time, and has a sub 4k majority. Which may well explain why it was chosen to be a big deal at the start of the campaign.
    Sunderland Central is an interesting bet for first seat to change hands. Tories will be just 3% or so off winning.

    Someone should suggest such a market to BF.
    Labour will hang on there by a thousand votes (It's a seat they should probably never lose) and Julie Elliot will celebrate like she's won the world cup.
    To some extent she'll be justified. Winning despite a losing ticket will never have been more daft than in 2019.

    (Julie Elliott seems to have been invisible since elected - I'm not convinced she's got Sunderland's best interests at heart)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    https://twitter.com/mattsingh_/status/1195305769907957760?s=21
    Great. Many thanks. What a resource!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Barnesian said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    https://twitter.com/mattsingh_/status/1195305769907957760?s=21
    Great. Many thanks. What a resource!
    Interesting to note they’re standing down in Chorley. I thought they said they were going to fight it?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Mutation is one of the reasons why almost all academic linguists love Welsh.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Mutation is one of the reasons why almost all academic linguists love Welsh.
    Thanks all for the education. So I presume the mutation is case-related.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Mutation is one of the reasons why almost all academic linguists love Welsh.
    Wasn’t it true that, in WWII, the army employed a group of Welsh-speaking radio operators, because the enemy couldn’t understand them?
  • Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship

    Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).

    Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
  • Good header from Pulpstar. At the very least he's given us some things to ponder.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    edited November 2019
    I know this one has been asked to death but will the bookies pay out on NOM if the Tories win 323 (a notional majority but not the 326 that is needed if every MP took their seat)?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    FPT @Barnesian

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    No BXP candidate in this seat. Only candidates are Tory, Labour, Lib Dems and Green.

    Ok I'm assuming no BXP only in Tory seats. I'll have a look at that later.
    A quick cludge (I've turned Bristol NW into a Con seat in 2017. I must remember to turn it back again)

    Con/Lab/LD/Grn

    No tactical voting 43/40/13/4
    Tactical voting 44/43/12/1

    This is now a Tory gain in both cases. It shows the benefit to the Tories of BXP not standing in non-Tory seats. I'm going to have to go through all the non-Tory seats to find where the BXP is not standing. Anyone got a link to nominations?
    Thank you this has been an interesting mathematical exercise.

    I'm curious about your tactical voting assumptions. In particular given the Greens managed 2.3% here last time after the candidate withdrew from campaigning and endorsed Labour ... being squeezed down from 4 to 1 seems implausible. However I appreciate that could be rounding.

    Could you please share your figures to 1 decimal point?
    I'm assuming Barnesian's model assumes that the Greens are currently on 4% in your seat because they are polling higher than in 2017. So, he's effectively having a three stage model: 2017 + current polls + tactical overlay.

    I have a number of concerns with it - the biggest being that I think that only in 1997 and 2001 was tactical voting such a big thing - but I think I understand the broad thrust of concept.
  • Surely it should be 'Yng Nghymru' not Yng Ngymru, please check on your Welsh mutations (y doethur).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    RobD said:

    So, any new polls? :p

    In Iowa, Buttigieg is now nine points clear of Warren, 25% to 16%.

    Oh, British polls...
  • To show just how exciting a time it is for English football. This afternoon England have dropped Rashford and Sancho and we get Hudson-Odoi and Sterling instead.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited November 2019
    murali_s said:

    I know this one has been asked to death but will the bookies pay out on NOM if the Tories win 323 (a notional majority but not the 326 that is needed if every MP took their seat)?

    They will pay out on the declared results of the election, irrespective of what the elected MPs decide to do (or not) afterwards. 326 is a majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited November 2019
    murali_s said:

    I know this one has been asked to death but will the bookies pay out on NOM if the Tories win 323 (a notional majority but not the 326 that is needed if every MP took their seat)?

    326 is a notional majority of 2. Eleanor Laing and the vacant Chairman of Ways and Means positions need to be elected as Conservatives first.

    So anything up to and including 325 Tory MPs pays out as NOM.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    TimT said:

    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Mutation is one of the reasons why almost all academic linguists love Welsh.
    Thanks all for the education. So I presume the mutation is case-related.
    No - not case related. The Cymru example is just for ease of pronunciation (honestly!) - same as 'a banana' but 'an apple' in English!!
  • rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    So, any new polls? :p

    In Iowa, Buttigieg is now nine points clear of Warren, 25% to 16%.

    Oh, British polls...
    Go Buttigieg.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Sandpit said:

    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Mutation is one of the reasons why almost all academic linguists love Welsh.
    Wasn’t it true that, in WWII, the army employed a group of Welsh-speaking radio operators, because the enemy couldn’t understand them?
    The Americans employed Navajos for that reason. Not sure about the Welsh.

    In 1919 while at Versailles, knowing his telephone line was open and anyone could be listening, Lloyd George would only speak to London if his private secretary Thomas Jones (who was also a Welsh speaker) was on the other end.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    https://twitter.com/mattsingh_/status/1195305769907957760?s=21
    Could the Conservatives sneak through in Fife North East?

    St Andrews students are probably more likely to be Conservative than students at any others in the country. There's probably a reasonable sized Brexit vote.

    Conservative Leavers may have lent their vote to the LDs last time around, and they're not that far behind. Conservative Remainers may fear Corbyn more than Brexit.

    On the other hand, the LDs can probably squeeze the Labour Unionist vote a little.

    For the record, I suspect not, but it's certainly possible.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583

    Surely it should be 'Yng Nghymru' not Yng Ngymru, please check on your Welsh mutations (y doethur).

    That was why i said 'tyt tyt'....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Surely it should be 'Yng Nghymru' not Yng Ngymru, please check on your Welsh mutations (y doethur).

    Can I blame autocorrect? It doesn’t seem to like Welsh.
  • Wrth gwrs! Da iawn.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Sandpit said:

    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Mutation is one of the reasons why almost all academic linguists love Welsh.
    Wasn’t it true that, in WWII, the army employed a group of Welsh-speaking radio operators, because the enemy couldn’t understand them?
    The Americans certainly used Native American radio operators.

    Which reminds me of this... https://xkcd.com/257/
  • The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship

    Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).

    Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
    The last paragraph seems like excellent analysis. I'm in no doubt that he would if he could. Johnson and the ERG are mutually disloyal.

    Johnson would need a majority of 60+ though, which I consider unlikely.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Wrth gwrs! Da iawn.

    Diolch yn fawr.

    (As it happens, it was nothing to do with autocorrect, I just buggered it up.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Particularly bad SCON result if this pans out
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1196099148317106176
  • Con lead goes up but maj falls 20.

    Will be interesting to see if this prediction is close.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    rcs1000 said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    https://twitter.com/mattsingh_/status/1195305769907957760?s=21
    Could the Conservatives sneak through in Fife North East?

    St Andrews students are probably more likely to be Conservative than students at any others in the country. There's probably a reasonable sized Brexit vote.

    Conservative Leavers may have lent their vote to the LDs last time around, and they're not that far behind. Conservative Remainers may fear Corbyn more than Brexit.

    On the other hand, the LDs can probably squeeze the Labour Unionist vote a little.

    For the record, I suspect not, but it's certainly possible.
    Definitely seems a recipe for an SNP gain if the unionist vote splits from last time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Con lead goes up but maj falls 20.

    Will be interesting to see if this prediction is close.
    Idiots, they’ve left Buckingham as Speaker.
  • ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Mutation is one of the reasons why almost all academic linguists love Welsh.
    Wasn’t it true that, in WWII, the army employed a group of Welsh-speaking radio operators, because the enemy couldn’t understand them?
    The Americans employed Navajos for that reason. Not sure about the Welsh.

    In 1919 while at Versailles, knowing his telephone line was open and anyone could be listening, Lloyd George would only speak to London if his private secretary Thomas Jones (who was also a Welsh speaker) was on the other end.
    It's a bit of a shame Kinnock didn't do the same thing in 1993 when communicating with the British Electorate
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    On the polling from last night, Yougov especially, we are in my view looking at the Tories being 375+, that is a majority of 100+.

    I have reservations about us going back to Blairite majorities. Governments probably do best when they need to keep themselves focused and united to carry the day. It's not hard to imagine a Boris government getting lazy and self-indulgent is it?

    But what I am crystal clear on is that the last 2 years since the 2017 election have been a disaster for the UK and its governance. The absurd levels of uncertainty and delays in the implementation of their instructions have caused economic damage and deep division in the country. We definitely need a government that can deliver its program and allow us to move on.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    rcs1000 said:

    I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
    It seems to be the modelling result du jour. Simply start with polling numbers, then apply layer after later of tactical voting to override them, never forcing back to the national polling numbers, and hey presto, the Tories can't win.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    https://twitter.com/mattsingh_/status/1195305769907957760?s=21
    Could the Conservatives sneak through in Fife North East?

    St Andrews students are probably more likely to be Conservative than students at any others in the country. There's probably a reasonable sized Brexit vote.

    Conservative Leavers may have lent their vote to the LDs last time around, and they're not that far behind. Conservative Remainers may fear Corbyn more than Brexit.

    On the other hand, the LDs can probably squeeze the Labour Unionist vote a little.

    For the record, I suspect not, but it's certainly possible.
    Definitely seems a recipe for an SNP gain if the unionist vote splits from last time.
    It's currently an SNP seat! They won by two votes last time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    Penddu2 said:

    TimT said:

    Question from the last threader, which perhaps is a reflection of how long I have been out of the UK: When did the spelling change from Cymru to Gymru?

    It didn't. It's part of the Welsh mutation: the C changes to a G as a result of the preceding word.
    Go to Google translate and select English to Welsh.

    First enter Wales
    Then change it to... to Wales
    Then for fun change it to ... in Wales

    Cymru

    I Gymru

    yng Ngymru

    (In case you can’t be bothered!)
    Mutation is one of the reasons why almost all academic linguists love Welsh.
    Wasn’t it true that, in WWII, the army employed a group of Welsh-speaking radio operators, because the enemy couldn’t understand them?
    The Americans employed Navajos for that reason. Not sure about the Welsh.

    In 1919 while at Versailles, knowing his telephone line was open and anyone could be listening, Lloyd George would only speak to London if his private secretary Thomas Jones (who was also a Welsh speaker) was on the other end.
    It's a bit of a shame Kinnock didn't do the same thing in 1993 when communicating with the British Electorate
    Bit late by 1993.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    rcs1000 said:

    I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
    Yes indeed. We're all wary of polling and models now, since it seems impossible to tell beforehand which might be right, and though gut feel can be very wrong too and I do think it will be relatively close, even with inefficient voting and tactical voting it feels strange to see the vote share difference increase, yet seats go down as a result of tweaks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NeilVW said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT:

    Info for Barnesian model.

    BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.

    18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.

    That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.

    I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.

    https://twitter.com/mattsingh_/status/1195305769907957760?s=21
    Could the Conservatives sneak through in Fife North East?

    St Andrews students are probably more likely to be Conservative than students at any others in the country. There's probably a reasonable sized Brexit vote.

    Conservative Leavers may have lent their vote to the LDs last time around, and they're not that far behind. Conservative Remainers may fear Corbyn more than Brexit.

    On the other hand, the LDs can probably squeeze the Labour Unionist vote a little.

    For the record, I suspect not, but it's certainly possible.
    Definitely seems a recipe for an SNP gain if the unionist vote splits from last time.
    It's currently an SNP seat! They won by two votes last time.
    Yes, mistyped - SNP hold.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.

    The main issue is that not so many people actually use it. How many pizza deliveries have been arranged in Welsh and how many in English in the land that would be Wales?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited November 2019
    Omnium said:

    The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.

    The main issue is that not so many people actually use it. How many pizza deliveries have been arranged in Welsh and how many in English in the land that would be Wales?
    How many pizza delivery services are run by Welsh speakers?

    Edit - probably some of them still use Italian though.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    rcs1000 said:

    I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
    Indeed. If Con win this election by 12% they are winning a 50+ majority IMO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2019
    camel said:

    Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship

    Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).

    Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
    The last paragraph seems like excellent analysis. I'm in no doubt that he would if he could. Johnson and the ERG are mutually disloyal.

    Johnson would need a majority of 60+ though, which I consider unlikely.
    I can believe it would be his inclination to do that. However, even a comfortable majority can become uncomfortable on critical issues, paritcularly if lots of new candidates are truer believers in the current approach to things than Boris is himself. It would also be a nuclear option, as he would not be able to get them back on board after pulling that move, and while at first that would be ok for most things, with lots of Europe issues still to come he cannot risk that I think. Unless it is a landslide I think Boris is dancing to the ERG tune for some while yet.

    But it would be fun to see some of the egregious figures not rewarded with Cabinet places.

    It's a similar problem to what a non-Corbynite Labour leader might face, assuming they could win the membership. The hard core of awkward squad members that Corbyn used to inhabit may well be much larger now, even if the membership turns away from them (which at present does not appear likely).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship

    Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).

    Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
    Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?

    I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/08/former-cameron-adviser-seeking-ultra-safe-seat-predicted-corbyn-will-win-election/
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited November 2019
    I still think the SNP are on for a landslide in Scotland, probably not besting 2015 performance but coming close to it.

    Which means Johnson's hopes of a majority essentially are in a split Remain vote in England.

    We saw those constituency polls last night, with the Lib Dems surging. I suspect that will continue and the votes in London will harmonise around the Lib Dems.

    So if we presume two of those seats are gained by the Lib Dems (Canterbury is currently Labour - and will either be a Lib Dem gain in which case it's net zero for Remain or a Tory gain, which is a loss), that leaves Johnson probably -7 (if we assume 5 of the Scottish seats are lost, which seems likely).

    So he needs to gain 7 seats to stand still. To have a notional majority he needs to gain another 3 on top of that, so he needs to make 10 net gains, by my calculation.

    On current polling that looks pretty certain - but if things start to narrow it becomes more and more difficult.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    Omnium said:

    The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.

    The main issue is that not so many people actually use it. How many pizza deliveries have been arranged in Welsh and how many in English in the land that would be Wales?

    You do know that usage of Welsh is finally increasing (after years of decline).........

    It was a pleasure to hear Aaron Ramsey being interviewed in Welsh the other night ( he also did an interview in Italian)... and he is from Cardiff not Gwynedd.....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.

    The main issue is that not so many people actually use it. How many pizza deliveries have been arranged in Welsh and how many in English in the land that would be Wales?

    Gyda pin-afal.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.

    The main issue is that not so many people actually use it. How many pizza deliveries have been arranged in Welsh and how many in English in the land that would be Wales?

    Gyda pin-afal.
    Ofnadwy.....!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2019
    Penddu2 said:

    Omnium said:

    The Welsh language was invented by someone crap at Scrabble.

    The main issue is that not so many people actually use it. How many pizza deliveries have been arranged in Welsh and how many in English in the land that would be Wales?

    You do know that usage of Welsh is finally increasing (after years of decline).........
    Well it's definitely increasing on here! :) (or whatever is welsh for smiley face)
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
    Yes indeed. We're all wary of polling and models now, since it seems impossible to tell beforehand which might be right, and though gut feel can be very wrong too and I do think it will be relatively close, even with inefficient voting and tactical voting it feels strange to see the vote share difference increase, yet seats go down as a result of tweaks.
    Because they have a methological change. Their model based in Electoral Calculus, shows a change because EC have now modelled for tactical voting.

    I think it's a bit of wishful thinking as 6.5 million tactical votes are already factored in from 2017. How much more tactical voting do they think their will be?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    The British public do not think like those who are obsessed with politics Part 2439876
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1196095168845352960
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    maaarsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
    It seems to be the modelling result du jour. Simply start with polling numbers, then apply layer after later of tactical voting to override them, never forcing back to the national polling numbers, and hey presto, the Tories can't win.
    It's helpful to the Tories. It will make sure Tories aren't complacent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    nunu2 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
    Yes indeed. We're all wary of polling and models now, since it seems impossible to tell beforehand which might be right, and though gut feel can be very wrong too and I do think it will be relatively close, even with inefficient voting and tactical voting it feels strange to see the vote share difference increase, yet seats go down as a result of tweaks.
    Because they have a methological change.
    Yes I know, that's why I said 'as a result of tweaks'. As you suggest it requires a really high amount of tactical voting, and while I do think it will be high I think 10-12% Tory leads is where the limits of that will become apparent.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    kle4 said:

    camel said:

    Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship

    Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).

    Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
    The last paragraph seems like excellent analysis. I'm in no doubt that he would if he could. Johnson and the ERG are mutually disloyal.

    Johnson would need a majority of 60+ though, which I consider unlikely.
    I can believe it would be his inclination to do that. However, even a comfortable majority can become uncomfortable on critical issues, paritcularly if lots of new candidates are truer believers in the current approach to things than Boris is himself. It would also be a nuclear option, as he would not be able to get them back on board after pulling that move, and while at first that would be ok for most things, with lots of Europe issues still to come he cannot risk that I think. Unless it is a landslide I think Boris is dancing to the ERG tune for some while yet.

    But it would be fun to see some of the egregious figures not rewarded with Cabinet places.

    It's a similar problem to what a non-Corbynite Labour leader might face, assuming they could win the membership. The hard core of awkward squad members that Corbyn used to inhabit may well be much larger now, even if the membership turns away from them (which at present does not appear likely).
    Depends whether a new intake of MPs, with all the ministerial possibilities their future might throw them, would die in a ditch, having brexited, for a more brexity form of brexit,

    I cannot believe that a new MP, elected on the back of a 60+ majority PM, wouldimmediately stab that PM in the back to side with brexithardmansteve Baker and his acolytes.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    kle4 said:

    timmo said:

    Good..Gymiah is a disgraceful individual
    Strong words - any particular reason?
    This is one of those smelly ones where neither Gyimah or Dent Coad come out well. Gyimah because Dent Coad does seem to have been some distance from detailed discussions on the Grenfell refurb. Dent Coad because she has repeatedly used the same approach as Gyimah to tar all the Conservative councillors as complicit, even those who have never been on the Tenants Board or Housing Scrutiny Committee (as she was). She cannot have it both ways. Either the guilty are only those small number of Conservative councillors who were party to detailed discussions on the spec for the cladding (through the board or committee) or all councillors in office at the time of such discussions, including Dent Coad, are equally guilty and fair game for criticism (either by Gyimah or others).
  • @RobD
    Have you updated your graph?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    The British public do not think like those who are obsessed with politics Part 2439876
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1196095168845352960

    Please can we point that survey group at Betfair? ;)
This discussion has been closed.