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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most o

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    First

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Second like Labour?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    The 4% swing from the Tories to the SNP on the latest Yougov Scottish poll would see the Scottish Tories hold 8 out of 13 seats in Scotland, so yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland even without Ruth Davidson, helped by the Brexit Party standing down in Scottish seats held by the Tories. That will also help Boris get a majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Sandpit said:

    Second like Labour?

    Fourth like Labour in Scotland.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    First

    Not first at all, like the tories in Cardiff North.
  • Late to new thread as on Commie Cable Co broadband....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    @FrancisUrquhart you ok hun?

    :)
  • RobD said:

    @FrancisUrquhart you ok hun?

    :)


  • HYUFD said:

    The 4% swing from the Tories to the SNP on the latest Yougov Scottish poll would see the Scottish Tories hold 8 out of 13 seats in Scotland, so yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland even without Ruth Davidson, helped by the Brexit Party standing down in Scottish seats held by the Tories. That will also help Boris get a majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

    'yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland'

    Don't get carried away son, never in a million years.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    Predictions were for another wipeout. Relative to that is it a success. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Start of the campaign I'd have assumed the Tories would be fortunate to hold onto 3-4 of their Scottish seats. People seem more bullish about it now, although there's no safe seats in Scotland anymore I suppose. But 7-8 is not being scoffed at as totally ridiculous, and could be critical of the red wall of the north does not completely collapse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited December 2019

    What was this place like in 2015?

    For some, orgasmic. As a coalition backer of the LDs at the time, it was pretty rough.
  • RobD said:

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    Predictions were for another wipeout. Relative to that is it a success. ;)
    If the result is as close as I think it is, the Tories are going to be mightily fucked off if they're down five and unable to govern because the SNP won their seats. I doubt Labour will give a crap if they've lost all their Scottish seats at that point.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    English Labour should throw SLAB under a Falkirk-built bus and support scots independence. Scotland is a drag on the chances of a Labour majority government in Westminster.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    Don't suppose you want to bet on Tories sub 5 Scottish seats do you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    The SNP are still projected to be down over 10 seats compared to the 56 they got in 2015 before the Brexit vote
  • Omnium said:

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    Don't suppose you want to bet on Tories sub 5 Scottish seats do you?
    No because I think they will hold 6-8
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    https://twitter.com/RachelWatson27/status/1203235975721312256

    Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is

    Not all bad outcomes are the same. An SNP or a LD MP will both back remain vociferously, but longer term the fewer Sindy supporting MPs the better for them (although given the SNP will easily have a majority of scottish seats, it won't make that much difference).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    HYUFD said:

    The 4% swing from the Tories to the SNP on the latest Yougov Scottish poll would see the Scottish Tories hold 8 out of 13 seats in Scotland, so yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland even without Ruth Davidson, helped by the Brexit Party standing down in Scottish seats held by the Tories. That will also help Boris get a majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

    'yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland'

    Don't get carried away son, never in a million years.
    Bit early to tie your money up for GE 1,002,020 AD though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 4% swing from the Tories to the SNP on the latest Yougov Scottish poll would see the Scottish Tories hold 8 out of 13 seats in Scotland, so yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland even without Ruth Davidson, helped by the Brexit Party standing down in Scottish seats held by the Tories. That will also help Boris get a majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

    'yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland'

    Don't get carried away son, never in a million years.
    Bit early to tie your money up for GE 1,002,020 AD though.
    Is that date in line with the provisions of the FTPA?
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    HYUFD said:

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    The SNP are still projected to be down over 10 seats compared to the 56 they got in 2015 before the Brexit vote
    There are some very close SNP/CON marginals, depending on how clumpy the votes are is it possible to see a Con gain or two as well as a few losses?
  • argyllrs said:

    HYUFD said:

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    The SNP are still projected to be down over 10 seats compared to the 56 they got in 2015 before the Brexit vote
    There are some very close SNP/CON marginals, depending on how clumpy the votes are is it possible to see a Con gain or two as well as a few losses?
    The SNP seemingly set to benefit hugely by a collapse in the Labour vote
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    camel said:

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    English Labour should throw SLAB under a Falkirk-built bus and support scots independence. Scotland is a drag on the chances of a Labour majority government in Westminster.
    But it's a massive plus to their hopes of a Labour led coalition - net net chopping off Scotland is much better for the Tories
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 4% swing from the Tories to the SNP on the latest Yougov Scottish poll would see the Scottish Tories hold 8 out of 13 seats in Scotland, so yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland even without Ruth Davidson, helped by the Brexit Party standing down in Scottish seats held by the Tories. That will also help Boris get a majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

    'yes they can hold a majority of seats in Scotland'

    Don't get carried away son, never in a million years.
    Bit early to tie your money up for GE 1,002,020 AD though.
    Is that date in line with the provisions of the FTPA?
    As the Act has provisions for calling a GE earlier than scheduled, technically any year could be in line with it, so yes :)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    Don't suppose you want to bet on Tories sub 5 Scottish seats do you?
    No because I think they will hold 6-8
    Ah sorry - i misread - I thought you'd said they'd get 5 seats at most, but you'd said they would lose at least 5 seats. I think that's rather pessimistic still.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Following on from the question on the last thread, I think PB is unusual in that it can capture the current zeitgeist fairly well compared to other websites. I think it's because betting and winning on politics requires a lot of objectivity. This time in 2017 I was selling Tory seats and hoping for a majority of 2 but realistically expecting us to fall short.

    This time I've been betting against us breaching the red wall as much as the constituency polling says and for the Lib Dems to underperform against the same polling. The national swing overrode them in 2015, I don't see what has changed since then.

    The only sense I get this time is a resignation from Tory remainers and even some Labour remainers that a hung parliament isn't going to end well for the country. For the former it means loads ar coming home, for the latter it's difficult for me to say how it plays out.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    kle4 said:

    https://twitter.com/RachelWatson27/status/1203235975721312256

    Interesting - but either candidate winning is bad for the Tories. Not sure this is as good as they think it is

    Not all bad outcomes are the same. An SNP or a LD MP will both back remain vociferously, but longer term the fewer Sindy supporting MPs the better for them (although given the SNP will easily have a majority of scottish seats, it won't make that much difference).
    Its up there with seeing Skinner, go for me. He really is a pompous blowhard.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    trukat said:
    Welcome, and lol.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Even in Scotland, there’s still 30% in favour of Brexit. If those votes all go blue then the Tory performance could actually surprise on the upside.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Sandpit said:

    Even in Scotland, there’s still 30% in favour of Brexit. If those votes all go blue then the Tory performance could actually surprise on the upside.

    KLAXON on standby.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Sandpit said:

    Even in Scotland, there’s still 30% in favour of Brexit. If those votes all go blue then the Tory performance could actually surprise on the upside.

    That includes a lot of Yes/Leave voters though, not sure they will break for the Tories.
  • FPT
    nico67 said:

    Henrietta said:

    Nicky Morgan says the government cannot publish the ISC's Russia report right now, because "There has to be a parliament to publish that report to".

    Is it true that the government's hands are legally tied in that way?

    More lies from Morgan. The report was ready to go before the election , she’s trying to hide behind purdah rules . The reason the report isn’t being published is because it’s likely to show some attempted interference in the EU ref campaign which the Tories don’t want as they fear it will lead to a surge in Remainer turnout , and also might make Johnson look bad as he fronted Vote Leave .

    If the report showed no interference then surely there was no risk in releasing it.
    The report looks at allegations of Russian interference in the 2017 general election too.

    Mark Urban at the BBC: "The committee heard evidence from UK intelligence agencies such as GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 about Russian attempts to interfere in the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election."

    Any guesses for which side Russia may have supported in the 2017 election? *innocent face*

  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155

    argyllrs said:

    HYUFD said:

    They're down five seats in even the best estimate, I am struggling to see how that is a success.

    Of course Labour are doing worse - but the real winners are the SNP. And Labour will feel a lot happier with the SNP winning than the Tories.

    The SNP are still projected to be down over 10 seats compared to the 56 they got in 2015 before the Brexit vote
    There are some very close SNP/CON marginals, depending on how clumpy the votes are is it possible to see a Con gain or two as well as a few losses?
    The SNP seemingly set to benefit hugely by a collapse in the Labour vote
    Agree totally, was just wondering if there was any knowledge on this site of any seats bucking the trend.
  • RobD said:

    trukat said:
    Welcome, and lol.
    Centrist Phone is going to be engaged for a while me thinks
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that cutting our ties with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country,
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    IanB2 said:

    The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that cutting our ties with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country,

    Loosening, not cutting.
  • The Daily Mail is such utter shite
  • Sandpit said:

    Even in Scotland, there’s still 30% in favour of Brexit. If those votes all go blue then the Tory performance could actually surprise on the upside.

    I think there was recent polling that suggested SNP leave voters (a section of the Scottish electorate much beloved by Yoons) were tending to stick with the SNP. PB even has its own representative of that demographic...
  • MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that cutting our ties with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country,

    Loosening, not cutting.
    Well I've been told several times an EEA-style relationship isn't really Brexit so it seems like a lot of people really don't want to be close to the EU at all. They have this view that somehow Trump is going to give us everything we don't have now - I think they're in for a rude wake up call.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    The Daily Mail is such utter shite

    It really is, but millions read it. Corbyn is utter shite but millions support him.

    Are you voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out or Lib Dem out of conviction?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2019
    Yes.

    Because the driver of SCon success has been Brexit and Sindy not Ruth Davidson.

    If it was Ruth Davidson and not Brezit/Sindy they wouldn't have had their worst ever council elections on her watch. 2xWorst ever Euro elections on her watch and worst ever Westminster vote share on her watch.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Hi, has anyone got any info on the Tory/Labour fight in Mansfield....(apologies to the scottish debate)
  • The Daily Mail is such utter shite

    It really is, but millions read it. Corbyn is utter shite but millions support him.

    Are you voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out or Lib Dem out of conviction?
    To stop the Tories.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    nico67 said:

    Henrietta said:

    Nicky Morgan says the government cannot publish the ISC's Russia report right now, because "There has to be a parliament to publish that report to".

    Is it true that the government's hands are legally tied in that way?

    More lies from Morgan. The report was ready to go before the election , she’s trying to hide behind purdah rules . The reason the report isn’t being published is because it’s likely to show some attempted interference in the EU ref campaign which the Tories don’t want as they fear it will lead to a surge in Remainer turnout , and also might make Johnson look bad as he fronted Vote Leave .

    If the report showed no interference then surely there was no risk in releasing it.
    The report will of course point toward Russian influence and Russian money swilling around the 2016 leave campaign. It’ll be interesting whether any Tories are implicated directly or whether we’re simply talking about Farage and Banks.

    This is of course bad news for both the Tories (now the party of Leave) and the Russians. Neither would enjoy being taken apart by the next official opposition (Labour) once the report comes before parliament.

    In their position I would try to find some way of getting Russian fingerprints onto something Labour has done, to muddy the political water and make it difficult for Labour to use the report to score points off the government and tarnish the 2016 referendum result.

    Whether the Russian intelligence service can come up with such a plan, I don’t know?
  • Johnson is utter shite too and yet millions to support him too.

    The Daily Mail is just such utter, utter bullshit though, it's not even good at hiding it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    For those that are interested, I now am able to scrape the BBC results site in real time. Locally I can definitely create a live spreadsheet of results vs YouGov MRP vs 2017 etc.

    I think the question is how best to make it live to PBers.

    Google sheets worked well for the local election spreadsheet a couple of years back.
  • If Ian Blackford loses his seat I will eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday evening.

    I am not expecting to eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    Johnson is utter shite too and yet millions to support him too.

    The Daily Mail is just such utter, utter bullshit though, it's not even good at hiding it.

    Its democracy matey. Everyone knows Labour's policies are absolutely bonkers, but no one is stopping Corbyn destroying the Labour party. One more heave comrades./..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Alistair said:

    Yes.

    Because the driver of SCon success has been Brexit and Sindy not Ruth Davidson.

    If it was Ruth Davidson and not Brezit/Sindy they wouldn't have had their worst ever council elections on her watch. 2xWorst ever Euro elections on her watch and worst ever Westminster vote share on her watch.

    Yes, there was a Ruth bubble. It got a bit silly.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    The Daily Mail is such utter shite

    It really is, but millions read it. Corbyn is utter shite but millions support him.

    Are you voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out or Lib Dem out of conviction?
    To stop the Tories.
    Are you from Momentum?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    fpt

    NorthofStoke said:

    What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?

    ++++++

    The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576
  • For those that are interested, I now am able to scrape the BBC results site in real time. Locally I can definitely create a live spreadsheet of results vs YouGov MRP vs 2017 etc.

    I think the question is how best to make it live to PBers.

    I can put a google spreadsheet into an IFrame
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Henrietta said:

    Nicky Morgan says the government cannot publish the ISC's Russia report right now, because "There has to be a parliament to publish that report to".

    Is it true that the government's hands are legally tied in that way?

    More lies from Morgan. The report was ready to go before the election , she’s trying to hide behind purdah rules . The reason the report isn’t being published is because it’s likely to show some attempted interference in the EU ref campaign which the Tories don’t want as they fear it will lead to a surge in Remainer turnout , and also might make Johnson look bad as he fronted Vote Leave .

    If the report showed no interference then surely there was no risk in releasing it.
    The report will of course point toward Russian influence and Russian money swilling around the 2016 leave campaign. It’ll be interesting whether any Tories are implicated directly or whether we’re simply talking about Farage and Banks.

    This is of course bad news for both the Tories (now the party of Leave) and the Russians. Neither would enjoy being taken apart by the next official opposition (Labour) once the report comes before parliament.

    In their position I would try to find some way of getting Russian fingerprints onto something Labour has done, to muddy the political water and make it difficult for Labour to use the report to score points off the government and tarnish the 2016 referendum result.

    Whether the Russian intelligence service can come up with such a plan, I don’t know?
    If there was a smoking gun, would the report not have been leaked?
  • kinabalu said:

    Alistair said:

    Yes.

    Because the driver of SCon success has been Brexit and Sindy not Ruth Davidson.

    If it was Ruth Davidson and not Brezit/Sindy they wouldn't have had their worst ever council elections on her watch. 2xWorst ever Euro elections on her watch and worst ever Westminster vote share on her watch.

    Yes, there was a Ruth bubble. It got a bit silly.
    So silly that there were big, empty, heart shaped bubbles plopping out of the heads of supposedy clear eyed, rational PBers.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited December 2019
    trukat said:
    Unfortunately Dr Moderate falls at the first hurdle.

    He assumes that demographic change means you can do a straight 'leavers dying off faster and Remainers being able to vote faster'. It doesn't. We know that people change their political vies as they get older and that they generally become more conservative. There is every reason to believe that applies to Remain/Leave as well with an aging population becoming more Leave. As has been pointed out in the past many of those 18 year olds who voted Remain in 1975 then voted Leave in 2016. No one can really quantify this effect but it is clear it will mean his basic assumptions in his first claim are wrong.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    kle4 said:

    What was this place like in 2015?

    For some, orgasmic. As a coalition backer of the LDs at the time, it was pretty rough.
    We had months and months of daily YouGov polls reporting decent Labour leads, resulting in a narrative that all Labour had to do was to hold tight and their "firewall" of Lib Dem to Lab switchers would put Ed in Downing Street.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat.
    The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland.
    If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.

    On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.

    For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2019

    For those that are interested, I now am able to scrape the BBC results site in real time. Locally I can definitely create a live spreadsheet of results vs YouGov MRP vs 2017 etc.

    I think the question is how best to make it live to PBers.


    You can use a google sheets API for auto updates iirc. I did this a little while back, found it a right pita to work with, but then my coding skills are somewhat limited. Edit: think this was the guide I used https://erikrood.com/Posts/py_gsheets.html

    Would be very interesting to see what you come up with though.

  • The Daily Mail is such utter shite

    It really is, but millions read it. Corbyn is utter shite but millions support him.

    Are you voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out or Lib Dem out of conviction?
    To stop the Tories.
    Are you from Momentum?
    No...? I'm not even a Labour member, just a leftie (I'd argue more pragmatic than most of Labour at the moment)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat.
    The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland.
    If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.

    On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.

    For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.

    Scottish Labour are never coming back, are they? Quite amazing. The death of a party, in real time.

    I don't believe Labour down south have really processed what this means, yet. Because it spells grave danger for them, especially if they pursue a socialist agenda.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    If Ian Blackford loses his seat I will eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday evening.

    I am not expecting to eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday.

    Strange wording. Can you confirm you will eat the pineapple ON the pizza?
  • Freggles said:

    If Ian Blackford loses his seat I will eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday evening.

    I am not expecting to eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday.

    Strange wording. Can you confirm you will eat the pineapple ON the pizza?
    Yes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited December 2019

    trukat said:
    Unfortunately Dr Moderate falls at the first hurdle.

    He assumes that demographic change means you can do a straight 'leavers dying off faster and Remainers being able to vote faster'. It doesn't. We know that people change their political vies as they get older and that they generally become more conservative. There is every reason to believe that applies to Remain/Leave as well with an aging population becoming more Leave. As has been pointed out in the past many of those 18 year olds who voted Remain in 1975 then voted Leave in 2016. No one can really quantify this effect but it is clear it will mean his basic assumptions in his first claim are wrong.
    I doubt it, since 2016. The one effect the referendum will have had is to have frozen many voters into the mindset they had at that time. We can see that in the polls since, with the slow but inexorable drift toward remain.
  • Byronic said:

    fpt

    NorthofStoke said:

    What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?

    ++++++

    The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

    I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    Byronic said:

    speedy2 said:

    I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat.
    The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland.
    If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.

    On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.

    For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.

    Scottish Labour are never coming back, are they? Quite amazing. The death of a party, in real time.

    I don't believe Labour down south have really processed what this means, yet. Because it spells grave danger for them, especially if they pursue a socialist agenda.
    Surely Kirkcaldy is nailed on for Labour?
  • Out of the 23 constituencies that we have seen polls published for so far, only 4 have come from North or West a line drawn from the Wash to the Severn.

    None of the 23 have come from a metropolitan district i.e. None from the industrial West Midlands, South Yorks, West Yorks, Merseyside, Greater Manchester or Tyneside.

    So for all the chatter about Labour's "Red Wall", at constituency level it has been remarkably underpolled. Compare and contrast with the 11 constituencies polled in London and the South East.

    I wonder whether tonight's polling will continue to leave us in the dark?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Freggles said:

    If Ian Blackford loses his seat I will eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday evening.

    I am not expecting to eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday.

    Strange wording. Can you confirm you will eat the pineapple ON the pizza?
    Yes.
    And you aren't going to take the pineapple off before eating a slice (with pineapple on it), are you?

    :)
  • Andrew said:

    For those that are interested, I now am able to scrape the BBC results site in real time. Locally I can definitely create a live spreadsheet of results vs YouGov MRP vs 2017 etc.

    I think the question is how best to make it live to PBers.


    You can use a google sheets API for auto updates iirc. I did this a little while back, found it a right pita to work with, but then my coding skills are somewhat limited. Edit: think this was the guide I used https://erikrood.com/Posts/py_gsheets.html

    Would be very interesting to see what you come up with though.

    Ok, thanks. I will have a look.

    A couple of concerns I have is if BBC change the format of their results page on the night and / or I get the ban hammer for automatically requesting pages.
  • speedy2 said:

    I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat.
    The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland.
    If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.

    On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.

    For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.

    Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath more likely I'd say.
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019
    camel said:

    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Henrietta said:

    Nicky Morgan says the government cannot publish the ISC's Russia report right now, because "There has to be a parliament to publish that report to".

    Is it true that the government's hands are legally tied in that way?

    More lies from Morgan. The report was ready to go before the election , she’s trying to hide behind purdah rules . The reason the report isn’t being published is because it’s likely to show some attempted interference in the EU ref campaign which the Tories don’t want as they fear it will lead to a surge in Remainer turnout , and also might make Johnson look bad as he fronted Vote Leave .

    If the report showed no interference then surely there was no risk in releasing it.
    The report will of course point toward Russian influence and Russian money swilling around the 2016 leave campaign. It’ll be interesting whether any Tories are implicated directly or whether we’re simply talking about Farage and Banks.

    This is of course bad news for both the Tories (now the party of Leave) and the Russians. Neither would enjoy being taken apart by the next official opposition (Labour) once the report comes before parliament.

    In their position I would try to find some way of getting Russian fingerprints onto something Labour has done, to muddy the political water and make it difficult for Labour to use the report to score points off the government and tarnish the 2016 referendum result.

    Whether the Russian intelligence service can come up with such a plan, I don’t know?
    If there was a smoking gun, would the report not have been leaked?
    They're waiting until Sunday. Four days before the election. Cf. 1924.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    To add to the discussion on the £350 mill to the EU figure:
    *There is an entirely (afaik) additional figure paid to the European Commission sitting quietly in the DFID budget
    *It is not for aid in EU countries, that is also there but listed seperately
    *It is not discretionary, and therefore should be included in the roundup of our 'fees'.
    *It was last reported (afaik) as £1bn in FY2014, after which it is hidden in the way DFID spending is reported. That is likely to have increased as the Commission budget has increased.

    So it always makes me laugh when europhiles claim everyone would love the EU if only our politicians had been more positive about it over the years. The reality is they have massively covered for it.
  • speedy2 said:

    I think a test of how things will go in scotland will be the Perth seat.
    The SNP held it by a handfull of votes last time with a Labour at 10% which was I think the third lowest for Labour in scotland.
    If there is any leakage from the SNP to Conservative, that is the seat that could be a Conservative gain.

    On the other side, if the SNP gain Gordon then it would be a bad night for the Conservatives in scotland.

    For Labour retaining a second scottish seat will be regarded as a success, the most likely one I think will be East Lothian.

    My sources on the ground in Perth and NP say Pete Wishart feels confident, but Scotland is the home of the shy Tory, so we'll see.

    I'd think Hugh Gaffney has more chance of holding in Coatbridge, mainly due to the face that the local SNP party is an ongoing binfire of strife. From what I can tell they haven't been campaigning in the seat, but heading to other marginals.

    There is also the unknown factor of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where Neale Hanvey is no longer the SNP candidate, but most of the local activists are campaigning for him. Lesley Laird could well hold on.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/b/johnson-chased-away-from-speech-in-rochester-by-five-protesters

    A classy paper

    Mr Johnson’s words during a Channel 4 News report also caused much debate after the broadcaster posted a video on Twitter with subtitles indicating he said “people of colour” while talking about the party’s immigration policy.

    Channel 4 later deleted the post and apologised for “a mistake” where they “misheard” the PM who allegedly actually said “people of talent.”

    allegedly eh?
  • Floater said:
    Do you actually contribute or just spam?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Hi, has anyone got any info on the Tory/Labour fight in Mansfield....(apologies to the scottish debate)

    Unfortunately not.
    But I do have info that Labour are throwing a lot in defending nearby Bolsover and have abandoned Ashfield, so I don't expect Labour to be trying to gain Mansfield.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    IanB2 said:

    The greatest sadness is how many voters appear to believe that cutting our ties with our closest European neighbours will lead to any positive outcomes for our country,

    "We stood alone in 1940. We can do it again."

    There is no effective counter to this - least of all the power of reason.

    It comes from a deep deep place that is impregnably defended against all comers.
  • How much did the 2017 polls overstate the SNP share and understate the SCon share? You all laughed at me for predicting SCon gains in 2017 just as you did at me predicting a Liberal meltdown in 2015
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019
    Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    fpt

    NorthofStoke said:

    What I can't help wondering is whether social media are exposing the long standing crassness (and worse) of many political party members and candidates or whether the standard has slipped badly in recent years. If the latter, is social media participation itself accelerating the decline in intelligence and awareness and (God help us) is this true of the whole population?

    ++++++

    The troubling evidence is that IQs right across the advanced world ARE now falling, after many decades of ascent (the so-called "Flynn Effect")

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576

    I doubt intelligence levels will have dropped in educated families that don't allow children to use "smart"phones.
    That is one of the theories already canvassed. IQ started declining around 2000-2005, as smartphones became ubiquitous. It is maybe significant that the decline is concentrated in the rich world - where smartphones, the Net, social media, have a greater purchase on daily life.

    Anecdotally, I have noticed that the younger generation - under 30 - lack sharpness and wit. They are more earnest. Less curious. I can't work out if this is because they have to be more sober and sensible, given their riskier financial milieu, or whether all that is true and they are ALSO a bit thick.
  • RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    If Ian Blackford loses his seat I will eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday evening.

    I am not expecting to eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday.

    Strange wording. Can you confirm you will eat the pineapple ON the pizza?
    Yes.
    And you aren't going to take the pineapple off before eating a slice (with pineapple on it), are you?

    :)
    No.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:
    Do you actually contribute or just spam?
    LOL - do you ever tell the truth?
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:
    Do you actually contribute or just spam?
    LOL - do you ever tell the truth?
    Oh do fuck off
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    Do you actually contribute or just spam?
    LOL - do you ever tell the truth?
    Oh do fuck off
    Truth hurts eh

    Suck it up
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2019

    trukat said:
    Unfortunately Dr Moderate falls at the first hurdle.

    He assumes that demographic change means you can do a straight 'leavers dying off faster and Remainers being able to vote faster'. It doesn't. We know that people change their political vies as they get older and that they generally become more conservative. There is every reason to believe that applies to Remain/Leave as well with an aging population becoming more Leave. As has been pointed out in the past many of those 18 year olds who voted Remain in 1975 then voted Leave in 2016. No one can really quantify this effect but it is clear it will mean his basic assumptions in his first claim are wrong.
    He doesn't fall as they're not weighting to how they would vote now the weightings relate to how they voted then. So if a Remainer has become a Leaver (as many have) they would be weighted to be a 2016 Remainer even if they're now a 2019 Leaver.

    EDIT: Sorry when I replied it originally said Curtis not Dr Moderate. Yes Dr Moderate is wrong absolutely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    trukat said:
    Unfortunately Dr Moderate falls at the first hurdle.

    He assumes that demographic change means you can do a straight 'leavers dying off faster and Remainers being able to vote faster'. It doesn't. We know that people change their political vies as they get older and that they generally become more conservative. There is every reason to believe that applies to Remain/Leave as well with an aging population becoming more Leave. As has been pointed out in the past many of those 18 year olds who voted Remain in 1975 then voted Leave in 2016. No one can really quantify this effect but it is clear it will mean his basic assumptions in his first claim are wrong.
    In any case, it's plain that Brexit is not a deal breaker for most Remain Conservatives.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Freggles said:

    If Ian Blackford loses his seat I will eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday evening.

    I am not expecting to eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday.

    Strange wording. Can you confirm you will eat the pineapple ON the pizza?
    Preferably unpeeled!
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    Do you actually contribute or just spam?
    LOL - do you ever tell the truth?
    Oh do fuck off
    Truth hurts eh

    Suck it up
    You're just a very boring and unfunny poster, what a sad life you must lead.
  • felix said:

    Freggles said:

    If Ian Blackford loses his seat I will eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday evening.

    I am not expecting to eat a pizza with a pineapple on it on Friday.

    Strange wording. Can you confirm you will eat the pineapple ON the pizza?
    Preferably unpeeled!
    The skin is best
  • Can anybody point me to a downloadable list of candidates by seat?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited December 2019

    How much did the 2017 polls overstate the SNP share and understate the SCon share? You all laughed at me for predicting SCon gains in 2017 just as you did at me predicting a Liberal meltdown in 2015

    SNP were overestimated by a few points in the Scottish polls:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland.

    The graph looks wrong, there was no poll putting the SNP on 37, and the trend continues after the polls finish...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    speedy2 said:

    Hi, has anyone got any info on the Tory/Labour fight in Mansfield....(apologies to the scottish debate)

    Unfortunately not.
    But I do have info that Labour are throwing a lot in defending nearby Bolsover and have abandoned Ashfield, so I don't expect Labour to be trying to gain Mansfield.
    Interesting, the odds on labour did seem tempting.......i thought the sitting young Tory may be vulnerable if Labour had a good candidate...i suppose Mansfield isnt exactly easy for the Momentum minibuses.....
This discussion has been closed.