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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new betting strategy worth pursuing?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new betting strategy worth pursuing?

Fascinating analysis by The Sunday Times.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    My god.

    They really are a cult now. Not a political party.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    The examples they give aren't the best. Ashfield is probably gone for Labour, whilst Plymouth Sutton and Devenport looks close, so it makes sense to campaign in the latter despite the respective majorities. Anti Corbyn MPs also may not even want Momentum activists to campaign for them.
  • Final stages of BDS - discerning an improvement in Blair's reputation not visible to the most powerful scanning electron microscopes?

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1203358369005887488?s=20
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2019
    Artist said:

    The examples they give aren't the best. Ashfield is probably gone for Labour, whilst Plymouth Sutton and Devenport looks close, so it makes sense to campaign in the latter despite the respective majorities. Anti Corbyn MPs also may not even want Momentum activists to campaign for them.

    Actually your last remark makes a lot of sense. Having your constituency flooded by enthusiastic young things from London who try to sell people the wonder of Jeremy, Europe and the inexhaustible cash fountain might not be especially welcome in Labour's Northern defence seats.

    Elsewhere, we've had a Scotland only poll with SNP 39, SCon 29 from Panelbase tonight. It's very hard to assess whether or not numbers like this are outliers because there are so few sub-GB surveys, but it does point towards movement and greater efficiency within the Tory vote. Boris Johnson could easily end up with the same share as May but both picking up a lot more votes in most of England, Wales and rural Scotland, whilst going backwards in London and the other core cities, the rich Western Home Counties and urban Scotland. That sort of pattern would help the Lib Dems and Labour to pick up an extra handful of seats in North and West London, Surrey and the like, but would be bad news for the Opposition everywhere else.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,089
    edited December 2019
    Twilight of the Sods?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    TKat Scottish poll is very heartening for the Tories - and could make the task in the RoUK much easier. My best hope at the start of the campaign was 4/5 - 8/12 now looking more rea;listic.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Although it would be in keeping with Momentum I'm a bit suspicious of this story tbh. It doesn't tally with everything being picked up on the ground. Perhaps I should say that I'm suspicious of any stories emerging at the moment. This is the crucial disinformation time, the moment when the Cummings machine is on maximum revs.

    My judgement at the moment is that we are heading for a narrow Conservative majority, but that it will be narrow.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    He's become a bit unhinged in my opinion the last few years. He began blocking people on twitter who are his natural allies. All very odd.
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    Artist said:

    Anti Corbyn MPs also may not even want Momentum activists to campaign for them.

    Yes. Their presence may hurt instead of help, when targeting centrist swing voters.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    nunu2 said:

    My god.

    They really are a cult now. Not a political party.

    But I'm afraid that's also true of the Brexiteers, both those in the official party of that name and the Conservatives.

    It's all very sad.
  • moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side. Precisely none of the benefits Leavers were touting for Brexit have emerged. In the meantime, Britain’s economy has started underperforming comparable economies (with the equivalent of a severe recession coming thanks to the extreme form of Brexit that the government has adopted), the country has been ripped in two, constitutional norms have been shredded, the government has led a direct assault on democracy andNorthern Ireland has been tossed aside, and that’s just for starters. Yet Leavers still profess to imagine that it’s all going to be anything less than abysmal. That really is deranged.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Morning. In other news. 1.33!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    +1

    They'll fume and froth at this suggestion but you're absolutely right Alastair.

    Part of me to be honest would be okay with a single figure tory win. Enough to see them get Brexit through, which will mean it's no longer an albatross around Labour's neck, enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader and just enough time to watch the complete shitshow that will be Johnson's tenure.

    All of that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Sandpit said:

    Morning. In other news. 1.33!

    Ever since the fiasco of 2016 I would not put betting markets and news in the same sentence.

    They were still pouring money on Remain after midnight!!!
  • moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader.....that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    From the host of all the talents on the Labour benches, who did you have in mind?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited December 2019

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader.....that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    From the host of all the talents on the Labour benches, who did you have in mind?
    I don't know. I'm a LibDem so I don't pay particulalry close attention to Labour. This election I've only backed Labour in my constituency for Tactical Voting pragmatism. I also quite like some of Labour's radical programme. And I loathe Johnson who is a crook.

    But ... seems to me that almost anyone would be better than Corbyn to be frank. I do like Keir Starmer. He's also been reverse-tipped by David Herdson.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    So we are faced with the prospect of a Left Labourparty in Parliament, opposing a Conservative party who rather remind me of the description of many Coalition MP's in 1918; hard-faced men who had done well out of the War.
    Although now of course many more will be women!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader.....that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    From the host of all the talents on the Labour benches, who did you have in mind?
    I don't know. I'm a LibDem so I don't pay particulalry close attention to Labour. This election I've only backed Labour in my constituency for Tactical Voting pragmatism. I also quite like some of Labour's radical programme. And I loathe Johnson who is a crook.

    But ... seems to me that almost anyone would be better than Corbyn to be frank. I do like Keir Starmer. He's also been reverse-tipped by David Herdson.
    Jess Phillips! Just imagine the debate between her and BoZo!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    One of the many really quite mediocre characters propelled to the fore in the absence of any real talent.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader.....that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    From the host of all the talents on the Labour benches, who did you have in mind?
    I don't know. I'm a LibDem so I don't pay particulalry close attention to Labour. This election I've only backed Labour in my constituency for Tactical Voting pragmatism. I also quite like some of Labour's radical programme. And I loathe Johnson who is a crook.

    But ... seems to me that almost anyone would be better than Corbyn to be frank. I do like Keir Starmer. He's also been reverse-tipped by David Herdson.
    Jess Phillips! Just imagine the debate between her and BoZo!
    Although I do think the tories will just win this, the funny thing about this discussion is that we're only a hair's breath away from having the same debate about who will be next Cons leader! If they don't land a majority, Johnson will be forced out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    +1

    They'll fume and froth at this suggestion but you're absolutely right Alastair.

    Part of me to be honest would be okay with a single figure tory win. Enough to see them get Brexit through, which will mean it's no longer an albatross around Labour's neck, enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader and just enough time to watch the complete shitshow that will be Johnson's tenure.

    All of that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    Seems Momentum won't think it is Job Done until exercising power is no longer an albatross around Labour's neck.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    felix said:

    One of the many really quite mediocre characters propelled to the fore in the absence of any real talent.

    Johnson?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader.....that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    From the host of all the talents on the Labour benches, who did you have in mind?
    I don't know. I'm a LibDem so I don't pay particulalry close attention to Labour. This election I've only backed Labour in my constituency for Tactical Voting pragmatism. I also quite like some of Labour's radical programme. And I loathe Johnson who is a crook.

    But ... seems to me that almost anyone would be better than Corbyn to be frank. I do like Keir Starmer. He's also been reverse-tipped by David Herdson.
    Jess Phillips! Just imagine the debate between her and BoZo!
    Although I do think the tories will just win this, the funny thing about this discussion is that we're only a hair's breath away from having the same debate about who will be next Cons leader! If they don't land a majority, Johnson will be forced out.
    This is the great untold story, and IMO a message neglected by labour/snp/libdems a vote against BJ
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader.....that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    From the host of all the talents on the Labour benches, who did you have in mind?
    I don't know. I'm a LibDem so I don't pay particulalry close attention to Labour. This election I've only backed Labour in my constituency for Tactical Voting pragmatism. I also quite like some of Labour's radical programme. And I loathe Johnson who is a crook.

    But ... seems to me that almost anyone would be better than Corbyn to be frank. I do like Keir Starmer. He's also been reverse-tipped by David Herdson.
    Jess Phillips! Just imagine the debate between her and BoZo!
    Starmer as an experienced barrister ought to be able to give BoZo a rough time, although of course he largely worked on defences.
    And, as above, I fear Johnson will have more of the likes of Francois barracking any opponents.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader.....that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    From the host of all the talents on the Labour benches, who did you have in mind?
    I don't know. I'm a LibDem so I don't pay particulalry close attention to Labour. This election I've only backed Labour in my constituency for Tactical Voting pragmatism. I also quite like some of Labour's radical programme. And I loathe Johnson who is a crook.

    But ... seems to me that almost anyone would be better than Corbyn to be frank. I do like Keir Starmer. He's also been reverse-tipped by David Herdson.
    Jess Phillips! Just imagine the debate between her and BoZo!
    Although I do think the tories will just win this, the funny thing about this discussion is that we're only a hair's breath away from having the same debate about who will be next Cons leader! If they don't land a majority, Johnson will be forced out.
    I am not sure that the Tories will support Britain Trump for long, even if he has a majority
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    By the way, just on a general point about allegiances. Some on here strike me as very, very, partisan. To the point where they can't see when their own side is behaving badly, nor conversely when an 'opponent' makes a valid point.

    But it also has another more sinister sub-text. There's this pervasive view that you have to bang a one-party drum, that you cannot be pragmatic and flexible.

    I have never believed in life that any organisation has a monopoly on truth. Politicians especially. I affiliate LibDem in lots of ways but that doesn't mean I agree with them on everything. I think the decision to go straight to Revoke Article 50 was poor. Whilst I personally am passionate about remaining in the EU, this would be drastically undemocratic and it's pretty illiberal. I also do NOT like the local level shenanigans and the failure to cooperate with Labour moderates.

    Nor do I admire all things Labour. I like some of their programme very much indeed, esp. nationalisation of railways and water. Other parts of their manifesto would probably bankrupt the country. And Corbyn's failure to deal with antisemitism in the party is appalling.

    I also, for the record, clearly stated on here that I think Parliament should have voted through Theresa May's deal. It was, and still is, the best Brexit deal that has been presented.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Sending foot soldiers to Plymouth Sutton and Devonport makes sense for a party that has no chance of picking up seats in the SW, where (presumably) safe Ben Bradshaw in Exeter is the only other seat they hold until you get to Bristol - and where maybe Brexit Party's Ann Widdecombe is proving weirdly attractive to some Labour voting/Strictly loving cross-over group.

    They'd be better utilised sending them to Totnes town, to try and keep Dr. Sarah from getting the second place they had last time. Although I'm told the Green vote (over 2,000 in 2017) is not going to Wollaston as planned when they stood down, but is shifting en masse to Labour instead.

    Had a ridiculously good canvass for the Blues yesterday. Like, North Korean leader good.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2019

    Sending foot soldiers to Plymouth Sutton and Devonport makes sense for a party that has no chance of picking up seats in the SW, where (presumably) safe Ben Bradshaw in Exeter is the only other seat they hold until you get to Bristol - and where maybe Brexit Party's Ann Widdecombe is proving weirdly attractive to some Labour voting/Strictly loving cross-over group.

    They'd be better utilised sending them to Totnes town, to try and keep Dr. Sarah from getting the second place they had last time. Although I'm told the Green vote (over 2,000 in 2017) is not going to Wollaston as planned when they stood down, but is shifting en masse to Labour instead.

    Had a ridiculously good canvass for the Blues yesterday. Like, North Korean leader good.

    North Korea would approve of Boris’s Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited December 2019
    I've put my postcode in and am directed to

    Rother Valley, NE Derbyshire and Hallam. Not my own marginal of Bassetlaw.

    So they either think it's safe or gone. I'd have to go with safe judging by the fact Hallam and NED should in theory be more difficult, though Hallam is a very different seat to most round here
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    MM, I agree now about Totnes.

    Ben Bradshaw will win Exeter. He's hugely popular including with middle classes.

    Still think Claire Wright is in with a very good shout in Devon East against the helicoptered newbie from CCHQ.

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is tight.

    Are you sure Camborne & Redruth is safe for the tories? Latest betting suggests they're drifting with Labour tightening the race.

    p.s. try to be objective if you reply please!

    I also have another comment which I'll post separately.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    MM, I agree now about Totnes.

    Ben Bradshaw will win Exeter. He's hugely popular including with middle classes.

    Still think Claire Wright is in with a very good shout in Devon East against the helicoptered newbie from CCHQ.

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is tight.

    Are you sure Camborne & Redruth is safe for the tories? Latest betting suggests they're drifting with Labour tightening the race.

    p.s. try to be objective if you reply please!

    I also have another comment which I'll post separately.

    BBC yesterday seemed to be talking up N. Devon as a LD regain.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited December 2019
    MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.

    There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.

    I could guide you through other constituencies and point to massive LibDem surges, which is why I suggested on here two months ago that Guildford might go LibDem. Woking too possibly. Neither are nationally indicative.

    The election, it seems, may be won or lost in the Labour northern heartlands. This was always Dom Cummings' strategy. But if I was a tory I'd be very edgy about this. Very few posters on here really live in the nitty gritty northern towns, and nor do I these days. I do have a lot of friends who do. I still maintain that relying on them to go out and vote tory is asking for trouble. Or at least, it's shaky.

    And then there's the Jewish vote. The ethnic vote. And the youthquake.

    And dark days with wild weather (possibly).

    I do in fact think the tories will just win a narrow majority but this is the hardest election to call properly since 1992. Harder.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    MM, I agree now about Totnes.

    Ben Bradshaw will win Exeter. He's hugely popular including with middle classes.

    Still think Claire Wright is in with a very good shout in Devon East against the helicoptered newbie from CCHQ.

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is tight.

    Are you sure Camborne & Redruth is safe for the tories? Latest betting suggests they're drifting with Labour tightening the race.

    p.s. try to be objective if you reply please!

    I also have another comment which I'll post separately.

    BBC yesterday seemed to be talking up N. Devon as a LD regain.
    Yes it's a possible I think. The Brexit farming community though ...?
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited December 2019

    MM, I agree now about Totnes.

    Ben Bradshaw will win Exeter. He's hugely popular including with middle classes.

    Still think Claire Wright is in with a very good shout in Devon East against the helicoptered newbie from CCHQ.

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is tight.

    Are you sure Camborne & Redruth is safe for the tories? Latest betting suggests they're drifting with Labour tightening the race.

    p.s. try to be objective if you reply please!

    I also have another comment which I'll post separately.

    BBC yesterday seemed to be talking up N. Devon as a LD regain.
    Ben Bradshaw has a huge personal vote. Had to be persuaded to stand again in 2017, so I'm expecting this will be his last roll of the dice. So much housebuilding going on around Exeter that it must be back in play when he does step aside.

    Devon East is a weird one. As usual, a forest of posters for Claire Wright. But no UKIP/Brexit this time, so that is a 1200 vote resource for the Tories to grab. Plus, this time there is a Green candidate, so I'd expect Claire to lose a few to them. Got 800 last time they stood in 2010. And I don't know why, but I gather there was a large element of Claire's vote was an anti-Swire vote. Now he's gone, maybe that boil is lanced. Still a Tory hold is my best assessment.

    Plymouth could go to a recount.

    Heard no suggestions of any worries for the blues in Cambourne and Redruth.

    I think in North Devon, the LibDems are still suffering from their previous candidate's disastrous radio interview. Still one of their three live shots in the SW (with St. Ives and North Cornwall) but I'd still think St. Ives looks their best shot at a gain. The slide in the polls nationally and the two party squeeze means they have to be realistic - gains are going to be hard to come by outside deepest Remainia. And even there, fear of Corbyn is a potent factor. For example I'm hearing Zac will probably lose but by nowhere near as much as earlier polling suggests. Because....Corbyn.

    All opinions offered as objective as I can be.



  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    melcf said:

    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations

    I agree with a lot of this, but in many of the new Tory target seats in the north and particularly Wales, immigration is very low. Brexit has successfully been raised for these communities as a banner of defiance and independence. This is a bitter travesty, of course.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    melcf said:

    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations

    Er, Boris has no majority to lose!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Very good post melcf. Agree with all of your assessment.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    MM, I agree now about Totnes.

    Ben Bradshaw will win Exeter. He's hugely popular including with middle classes.

    Still think Claire Wright is in with a very good shout in Devon East against the helicoptered newbie from CCHQ.

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is tight.

    Are you sure Camborne & Redruth is safe for the tories? Latest betting suggests they're drifting with Labour tightening the race.

    p.s. try to be objective if you reply please!

    I also have another comment which I'll post separately.

    BBC yesterday seemed to be talking up N. Devon as a LD regain.


    All opinions offered as objective as I can be.



    Fair enough but I think you're misinformed about Devon East then. I've been there a few times and I've spoken to people. Claire's got a lot of traction and I'm not just referring to posters. She may not do it, but it's closer than last time. Greens are nowhere - they are piling on Claire. Don't think locals are sounding very impressed about Simon Jupp getting parachuted in by CCHQ from outside.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 50
    Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    T

    moonshine said:

    Was Andrew Adonis always so self unaware or is it a brexit thing?

    It's like @CarlottaVance already said. End-stage Brexit Derangement Syndrome. One fears for the well-being of people like that if it actually happens at the end of next January.
    Almost all of the derangement has been on the Leave side.
    enough time for Labour to install a more acceptable leader.....that will pave the way for a stonking Labour majority a la 1997.
    From the host of all the talents on the Labour benches, who did you have in mind?
    I don't know. I'm a LibDem so I don't pay particulalry close attention to Labour. This election I've only backed Labour in my constituency for Tactical Voting pragmatism. I also quite like some of Labour's radical programme. And I loathe Johnson who is a crook.

    But ... seems to me that almost anyone would be better than Corbyn to be frank. I do like Keir Starmer. He's also been reverse-tipped by David Herdson.
    John McDonnell as leader would not be better than Corbyn. I’ve never seen the attraction of Starmer myself.

    But more to the point, I am not at all sure that the Tories will win a comfortable majority.

    Very possible that there will be a Hung Parliament, another election within the next two years, Brexit still not done and a change of leaders in all three main parties.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 405

    MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.

    There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.

    I could guide you through other constituencies and point to massive LibDem surges, which is why I suggested on here two months ago that Guildford might go LibDem. Woking too possibly. Neither are nationally indicative.

    The election, it seems, may be won or lost in the Labour northern heartlands. This was always Dom Cummings' strategy. But if I was a tory I'd be very edgy about this. Very few posters on here really live in the nitty gritty northern towns, and nor do I these days. I do have a lot of friends who do. I still maintain that relying on them to go out and vote tory is asking for trouble. Or at least, it's shaky.

    And then there's the Jewish vote. The ethnic vote. And the youthquake.

    And dark days with wild weather (possibly).

    I do in fact think the tories will just win a narrow majority but this is the hardest election to call properly since 1992. Harder.

    "Very few posters on here really live in the nitty gritty northern towns, and nor do I these days. I do have a lot of friends who do. I still maintain that relying on them to go out and vote tory is asking for trouble"

    I grew up in one, and still have family living in them. I completely agree. But will they vote something else instead? I'd be reluctant to rule out Tice (BXP) in Hartlepool, for example. Or Field in Birkenhead.
  • The betting market is at last becoming more convinced of a Tory Majority. Betfair Exchange which has gyrated been within a couple of points of 1.40 (or 2/5) seemingly for weeks now, finally made a break through to 1.33 (or 1/3) following last night's positive polls for the Blue Team. I can't help but think that if this were, say, Liverpool at home vs Watford, the odds would be a great deal shorter.
    Thus far, over £9 million has been matched on this market.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    melcf said:

    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations

    I agree with a lot of this, but in many of the new Tory target seats in the north and particularly Wales, immigration is very low. Brexit has successfully been raised for these communities as a banner of defiance and independence. This is a bitter travesty, of course.
    Agree, my feeling is that the frustrations in these wwc areas mirrors those in the American rust belt. When the actual factors seem more complex, than just immigration. One factor could be the rise of Chinese cheap imports and many industries declining as a result, with the resulant loss of good paying blue colllar jobs. Just like the US Presidential elections, Brexit was a means of these wwc to throw a flaming molotov cocktail at the establishment. However, Boris, with his Etonian and Tory background just does not fit the bill. People in these areas are more likely to vote BxP, than BoJo
  • Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.

    What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435

    Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.

    What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
    Tony Blair.....
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    melcf said:

    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations

    Er, Boris has no majority to lose!
    Very true, but his party expects that from him. Specially as he withdrew the whip of so many and was rough with others. If he doesn't get a majority, his own party will push him under his 350 million bus. Then reverse back, too and fro, to make sure that job is 'get done'.
  • Jonathan said:

    Sending foot soldiers to Plymouth Sutton and Devonport makes sense for a party that has no chance of picking up seats in the SW, where (presumably) safe Ben Bradshaw in Exeter is the only other seat they hold until you get to Bristol - and where maybe Brexit Party's Ann Widdecombe is proving weirdly attractive to some Labour voting/Strictly loving cross-over group.

    They'd be better utilised sending them to Totnes town, to try and keep Dr. Sarah from getting the second place they had last time. Although I'm told the Green vote (over 2,000 in 2017) is not going to Wollaston as planned when they stood down, but is shifting en masse to Labour instead.

    Had a ridiculously good canvass for the Blues yesterday. Like, North Korean leader good.

    North Korea would approve of Boris’s Brexit.
    I don't know about that but North Korea would certainly approve of Stalinist moves to remove the power of the courts and parliament to overrule the government.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    Jamei said:

    Anecdote alert in response to melcf's post. Amongst middle class classical musicians, it's not immigration but freedom of movement that is driving them to vote tactically for Corbyn. Anything to stop Brexit and allow them to continue popping off to European concert halls with their cello/choir without filling out any forms and dealing with income tax complications. They don't believe there will be a Corbyn government but a hung parliament will suit them nicely. And if Corbyn ends up as a hamstrung PM without a majority who manages to make train fares cheaper then that's no bad thing.

    Many people are anticipating the possibiity of a hamstrung Corbyn government by voting Labour, and if so they're incredibly likely to be right that's the maximum end of possibility for Labour. This is a problem for the Cummings machine and the press, because one of their main tactics is the fear of hugely overbearing control, in a sort of overnight Stalinist takeover and zombie apocalypse.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited December 2019

    Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.

    What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
    Tony Blair.....
    I know there *used* to be a market for it, but that was a long time ago...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    The lead article reflects my limited knowledge of corbyn left wing cultists, they really would rather have pure socialist party that never wins power than compromise. It’s difficult to understand as there is so much a center left could achieve for people who need it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    melcf said:

    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations

    I agree with a lot of this, but in many of the new Tory target seats in the north and particularly Wales, immigration is very low. Brexit has successfully been raised for these communities as a banner of defiance and independence. This is a bitter travesty, of course.
    At least part of the resentment to migrants is not that they are in low paid jobs and poor housing, it is that migrants are increasingly in well paid jobs and good housing. This is where the "persons of talent" comment hits the wrong notes.

    The older and less educated native population perceive hemselves being replaced, or surpassed by first, second or third generation migrants. This sense of marginalisation and neglect of themselves and their children is only increased by the upward social mobility of metropolitan migrant communities.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    melcf said:

    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations

    Er, Boris has no majority to lose!
    More correctly, he did have one (with the DUP) but did his best to lose it already.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688


    What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?

    Tony Blair.....
    I know there *used* to be one, but that was a long time ago...

    Indeed. Theresa May and Cameron were centrists, so was Gordon Brown. The last time an extremist won was Thatcher and I'm not even sure you could call her that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Jonathan said:

    Sending foot soldiers to Plymouth Sutton and Devonport makes sense for a party that has no chance of picking up seats in the SW, where (presumably) safe Ben Bradshaw in Exeter is the only other seat they hold until you get to Bristol - and where maybe Brexit Party's Ann Widdecombe is proving weirdly attractive to some Labour voting/Strictly loving cross-over group.

    They'd be better utilised sending them to Totnes town, to try and keep Dr. Sarah from getting the second place they had last time. Although I'm told the Green vote (over 2,000 in 2017) is not going to Wollaston as planned when they stood down, but is shifting en masse to Labour instead.

    Had a ridiculously good canvass for the Blues yesterday. Like, North Korean leader good.

    North Korea would approve of Boris’s Brexit.
    Brexit is fundamentally a juche project.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.

    What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
    Tony Blair.....
    It’s not centrism that is wanted but basic boring competence.

    And not being actively malicious or harmful.

    Plus some honesty.

    Both of the main parties fail on this score: Tories because of Brexit, general lying and the Grayling-style disasters they’ve inflicted on many essential public services.

    And Labour because of anti-semitism, Brexit and their fantasy economics.

    In amongst the policies of both parties there are some good bits but far far too much nasty dross.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.

    There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.

    I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.

    But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.

    I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.

    I've also admitted that Marmite Boris is also a significant factor. He is winning us some unexpected support. The social housing canvass returns are better than we'd have any right to expect in any previous election. But Boris is also a real problem with a number of former rock-solid supporters. Some Remain Tories might have kept faith with a party determined to Brexit - if only the leader weren't Boris.

    The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are faced with that choice. Undoubtedly, some will still abstain on that choice by voting LibDem. Or not at all. But for the rest, it is stark. And from what I have been seeing in recent days, they are - reluctantly - going for Boris as the lesser of two weevils.

    A final written warning to the Party by many of them. But they won't sack the Tories this time. Perhaps other canvassers out there can confirm this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme,
    I think you've answered your own question. They were Remainiac extreme. Just a different form of extremism, hence the knee-jerk decision to go straight for Revoke Article 50, which I think was a big, big, mistake. It smacks of illiberal middle class elitism and superiority over those poor fools who dared to vote leave. Not good.

    But you may also be on to something. Whilst it's easy to pin all the evils on the world on Brexit in general and David Cameron in particular, I DO think the country has become more extreme. The amount of anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.

    I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I’ve found the publishing of constituency polling rather interesting. The vast majority have been Lib Dem targets where they wished to get the tactical message out about who to vote for. Yet in the main ‘red wall’ battleground I can really only remember 2 polls (Workington and Wrexham), both showing comfortable Tory leads. My hunch is the Tories are doing very well in 50+ of these seats (winning or within striking distance) but don’t want any published for fear of scaring the horses back to Labour.

    Obviously I take constituency polling with a pinch of salt, both were Survation so could have the same failings but they showed a 10% Lab to Con swing in both Wrexham and Workington. Even if this gap closed to a 5% swing as voters return home the Tories will gain 30-40 seats and a comfortable majority, but if it is 10% in these kind of seats than Lab would head sub 200. My hunch is the swing in these Brexitty seats is the swing will be closer to 5% but 10% is possible in a number of places.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited December 2019

    MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.

    There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.

    I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.

    But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly.
    Yeah but, with respect and in a friendly non-confrontational way, I think you're quite wrong about this. They are doing brilliantly in Surrey and west London. Watch and you will see, if you haven't already. I was up there this week and I assure you it's true. The LibDems are going to pull off some spectacular results in remain areas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    IanB2 said:

    melcf said:

    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations

    Er, Boris has no majority to lose!
    More correctly, he did have one (with the DUP) but did his best to lose it already.
    More correctly still, May threw away the majority by reselecting an MP convicted of expenses fiddling as their candidate in Brecon and Radnorshire. And several MPs were de facto no longer Conservative MPs, but were choosing their moment of most damage to make that formal.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155

    By the way, just on a general point about allegiances. Some on here strike me as very, very, partisan. To the point where they can't see when their own side is behaving badly, nor conversely when an 'opponent' makes a valid point.

    But it also has another more sinister sub-text. There's this pervasive view that you have to bang a one-party drum, that you cannot be pragmatic and flexible.

    I have never believed in life that any organisation has a monopoly on truth. Politicians especially. I affiliate LibDem in lots of ways but that doesn't mean I agree with them on everything. I think the decision to go straight to Revoke Article 50 was poor. Whilst I personally am passionate about remaining in the EU, this would be drastically undemocratic and it's pretty illiberal. I also do NOT like the local level shenanigans and the failure to cooperate with Labour moderates.

    Nor do I admire all things Labour. I like some of their programme very much indeed, esp. nationalisation of railways and water. Other parts of their manifesto would probably bankrupt the country. And Corbyn's failure to deal with antisemitism in the party is appalling.

    I also, for the record, clearly stated on here that I think Parliament should have voted through Theresa May's deal. It was, and still is, the best Brexit deal that has been presented.

    Here and in USA people are becoming more intolerant of others and are of the view to fight to the death over every issue, even within parties.
    This has lead to the brexit impasse and also in USA the preventing of GW Bush, B Obama and now Trump, implementing policies that were voted for in elections (I think the policies of all three were bonkers). Maybe the data analysts have looked hard at this and have judged holding hard is of long term benefit for the party, but sure society is the loser.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme,
    I think you've answered your own question. They were Remainiac extreme. Just a different form of extremism, hence the knee-jerk decision to go straight for Revoke Article 50, which I think was a big, big, mistake. It smacks of illiberal middle class elitism and superiority over those poor fools who dared to vote leave. Not good.

    But you may also be on to something. Whilst it's easy to pin all the evils on the world on Brexit in general and David Cameron in particular, I DO think the country has become more extreme. The amount of anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.

    I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
    I don't think it was the Revoke thing - there wasn't much change in the polling at the time even though it was pretty well reported, and although I don't have the British telly I don't think there's been *that* much coverage in the campaign.

    I think part of it is internet-fed tribalism, but also the Lehman Shock kind of discredited the idea that things would work out OK if you followed sensible moderate policies that sensible moderate people who knew what they were doing thought were sensible.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Flanner said:



    I grew up in one, and still have family living in them. I completely agree. But will they vote something else instead? I'd be reluctant to rule out Tice (BXP) in Hartlepool, for example. Or Field in Birkenhead.

    Tice is in with a chance in England's Kolyma as the local labour apparatus has experienced meiosis with some of the council members and activists departing to Scargill's (yes, he's still alive) Socialist Labour Party. Corbyn's labour was too intellectually coherent and not enough of a personality cult for them but what do you expect? It's Hartlepool.

    It might be enough to let the wig wearing wanker through the middle for BXP.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited December 2019
    Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.

    There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.

    I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.

    But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly.
    Yeah but you're quite wrong about this. They are doing brilliantly in Surrey and west London. Watch and you will see, if you haven't already. I was up there this week and I assure it's true. The LibDems are going to pull off some spectacular results in remain areas.
    Why would we ever doubt you.

    But believe me you are very wrong. Trust me. I’ve met people including some middle class classical musicians up and down the country.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.

    Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.

    But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019

    Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme,
    I think you've answered your own question. They were Remainiac extreme. Just a different form of extremism, hence the knee-jerk decision to go straight for Revoke Article 50, which I think was a big, big, mistake. It smacks of illiberal middle class elitism and superiority over those poor fools who dared to vote leave. Not good.

    But you may also be on to something. Whilst it's easy to pin all the evils on the world on Brexit in general and David Cameron in particular, I DO think the country has become more extreme. The amount of anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.

    I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
    I don't think it was the Revoke thing - there wasn't much change in the polling at the time even though it was pretty well reported, and although I don't have the British telly I don't think there's been *that* much coverage in the campaign.

    I think part of it is internet-fed tribalism, but also the Lehman Shock kind of discredited the idea that things would work out OK if you followed sensible moderate policies that sensible moderate people who knew what they were doing thought were sensible.
    This is an important point, relatively rarely aired on this site. Political tribalism has many causes, but people on both left and right have legitimate reasons to no longer have faith in the 1990s and early 2000s technocratic economic consensus, which many centrists still yearn for a simple return to.

    There are new ideas needed in the centre, for those wishing to support it.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    isam said:

    Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive

    Okay the nasties on here have woken up.

    I'm off ...

    To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    IanB2 said:

    melcf said:

    Good Morning,
    Interesting bit of info, gleaned from my emails yesterday. There seems to be a shift, the middle classes more towards the centre and left and the working classes more towards the right. Not sure of one trigger point but immigration comes to mind.
    May be immigration has been a good thing for the middle class, with cheap labour? Living in the better areas, avoids having to share the influx of EE wrt housing. While for the working class it just reduced their pay and jobs. On top of that add austerity and you got a double whammy, with struggle for social housing, heath care and basics.
    So many educated, comfortable middle classes seem ok to tactically vote even for an ultra red Corbyn. While tradtional labour seem to be gravitating towards BXP and even their nemesis, the Tories.
    I identified around 30-40 Labour heartland seats, that are under threat. However most of them are on a razor edge. Three factors, as mentioned, tactical voting, young/ new goters and brexit party can upset all calculations. Or in some places, flat cap Fred may just not turn out in the cold.
    My assesment- Tories 320 + - 15
    For Johnson, it's gonna be a pyrrhic victory. He loses majortiy, he has to resign, he gets a slim majority, he will struggle with Brexit and even his own party. Ending with a no deal and it's disastrous consequences. Either way, he is not going to get an easy ride. Serves him right, as this mess is the result of his manipulations

    Er, Boris has no majority to lose!
    More correctly, he did have one (with the DUP) but did his best to lose it already.
    More correctly still, May threw away the majority by reselecting an MP convicted of expenses fiddling as their candidate in Brecon and Radnorshire. And several MPs were de facto no longer Conservative MPs, but were choosing their moment of most damage to make that formal.
    It was his local party that reselected him, not May. And given the key factor was the very unexpected collapse of the Labour vote in Ystradgynlais, it seems most unlikely that the candidate had any bearing on the result.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Marquee_Mark: "Had a ridiculously good canvass for the Blues yesterday. Like, North Korean leader good."

    You had a haircut?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Does any one know whether the MRP Poll seat predictor thingy is continually updated or is it the same as when they produced their MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    MM, I agree now about Totnes.

    Ben Bradshaw will win Exeter. He's hugely popular including with middle classes.

    Still think Claire Wright is in with a very good shout in Devon East against the helicoptered newbie from CCHQ.

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport is tight.

    Are you sure Camborne & Redruth is safe for the tories? Latest betting suggests they're drifting with Labour tightening the race.

    p.s. try to be objective if you reply please!

    I also have another comment which I'll post separately.

    BBC yesterday seemed to be talking up N. Devon as a LD regain.


    All opinions offered as objective as I can be.



    Fair enough but I think you're misinformed about Devon East then. I've been there a few times and I've spoken to people. Claire's got a lot of traction and I'm not just referring to posters. She may not do it, but it's closer than last time. Greens are nowhere - they are piling on Claire. Don't think locals are sounding very impressed about Simon Jupp getting parachuted in by CCHQ from outside.
    Claire is effectvely running as "None of the Above". I was in the constituency the other day and her posters play that angle. But set against that, she also plays into the "years more confusion" of minority government. And that is a potent weapon which the Tories wield. Wanting an end to the Shite Parliament of 2017-2019 is a big driver of votes this time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme,
    I think you've answered your own question. They were Remainiac extreme. Just a different form of extremism, hence the knee-jerk decision to go straight for Revoke Article 50, which I think was a big, big, mistake. It smacks of illiberal middle class elitism and superiority over those poor fools who dared to vote leave. Not good.

    But you may also be on to something. Whilst it's easy to pin all the evils on the world on Brexit in general and David Cameron in particular, I DO think the country has become more extreme. The amount of anger and hatred on all sides is palpable. You can see it on here on a daily basis.

    I increasingly feel this country is no longer a place in which I feel at ease.
    I don't think it was the Revoke thing - there wasn't much change in the polling at the time even though it was pretty well reported, and although I don't have the British telly I don't think there's been *that* much coverage in the campaign.

    I think part of it is internet-fed tribalism, but also the Lehman Shock kind of discredited the idea that things would work out OK if you followed sensible moderate policies that sensible moderate people who knew what they were doing thought were sensible.
    This is an important point, relatively rarely aired on this site. Political tribalism has many causes, but people on both left and right have legitimate reasons to no longer have faith in the 1990s and early 2000s technocratic economic consensus, which many centrists still yearn for a simple return to.

    There are new ideas needed in the centre, for those wishing to support it.
    Yes, good points. On a wider stage, the flaws in capitalism are becoming more apparent yet there is a dearth of coherent thinking about alternatives (or adaptations).

    After all, we landed with Corbyn as Labour leader because none of his opponents had a single new idea between them.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited December 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder how Hunt would be doing.

    I guess Boris had to lurch the party to the right in order to lance the Brexit Party boil.

    The problem is that it's a high risk strategy. I still maintain that to win power you need to win the centre. We're in a bizarre situation where the two main party leaders are at the extreme edges and no-one seems to like Jo.
    I used to think this but recently I'm kind of stuck for data to support it. Farron went splat. Uncle Vince went Splat. TIG went splat. Swinson seems to be going splat. LD did well in the Euros but they weren't the centrists in that election, they were at the Remainiac extreme, with Lab and Con in the centre, and Lab and Con went splat.

    What's the objective evidence that there's a market for centrism?
    Tony Blair.....
    It’s not centrism that is wanted but basic boring competence.

    And not being actively malicious or harmful.

    Plus some honesty.

    Both of the main parties fail on this score: Tories because of Brexit, general lying and the Grayling-style disasters they’ve inflicted on many essential public services.

    And Labour because of anti-semitism, Brexit and their fantasy economics.

    In amongst the policies of both parties there are some good bits but far far too much nasty dross.

    Well at least you agree it's not Tony Blair then! He's surely too busy asset stripping the poor countries he visits to get too involved here
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.

    Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.

    But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.

    I think you are a fortnight behind the times....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Thank you to Isam. Not something I often say.

    Mysticrose really is amazingly unselfaware, isn't she? Although given she apparently thinks she is the Virgin Mary that may be a 'no shit, Sherlock' comment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited December 2019

    p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.

    Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.

    But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.

    A lot hangs now on whether the anti-Tory tactical voting can gain real traction. The remain parties are doing their best, as are Blair and Major and the friendly media. Kyle is one of the few within Labour to see the bigger picture.

    Edit/ That said, there is clearly politics behind where activists are sent, and the LibDem members' website is still pointing people towards helping in the seats of Labour remainers, including some that are clearly no-hope campaigns now. It would be better if the party's comms to members aligned with its comms to voters.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited December 2019

    isam said:

    Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive

    Okay the nasties on here have woken up.

    I'm off ...

    To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
    Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.

  • This is an important point, relatively rarely aired on this site. Political tribalism has many causes, but people on both left and right have legitimate reasons to no longer have faith in the 1990s and early 2000s technocratic economic consensus, which many centrists still yearn for a simple return to.

    There are new ideas needed in the centre, for those wishing to support it.

    I'm not really sure new ideas can fix it, new centrist ideas would by definition not be that radical, so centrists may just have to suck it up and wait for people to relearn what's wrong with the alternatives.

    There seems to be some ideological space for *liberalism*, but that's a 25% market at the absolute most, probably more like 15% in most places, and under FPTP that spells certain doom.
  • MM's post also reveals part of the problem with this election, as evidenced on this site.

    There are HUGE variations. Thus, for example, MM sees great blue strength in Totnes and says this is indicative of a nationwide trend. But it really isn't. All it indicates is a strong blue showing in Totnes, which is also in itself quite distinctive because of the Sarah Wollaston backstory.

    I've always acknowledged that Totnes has very local issues. Hell, Totnes town is a weird place at the best of times. Throw into the mix Dr. Sarah Wollaston who has visited more parties than Prince Andrew and you have a recipe for confusion amongst those on her own (latest and former) side who get riled by/want to continue supporting her.

    But...there are things that I have picked up and shared here that are of wider application. Right at the start of the campaign, the first canvassing sessions, it became clear that Jo Swinson and Revoke were both playing very badly. The LibDems were struggling here on national issues, Wollaston aside.

    I also said that Corbyn is toxic. A huge driver of votes to the Cons. He wasn't felt a threat in 2017. That changed with the exit poll.

    I've also admitted that Marmite Boris is also a significant factor. He is winning us some unexpected support. The social housing canvass returns are better than we'd have any right to expect in any previous election. But Boris is also a real problem with a number of former rock-solid supporters. Some Remain Tories might have kept faith with a party determined to Brexit - if only the leader weren't Boris.

    The nonsense of "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson having been laughed out of court, the choice is clear - Boris or Corbyn. And in the closing straight of the campaign, the voters are faced with that choice. Undoubtedly, some will still abstain on that choice by voting LibDem. Or not at all. But for the rest, it is stark. And from what I have been seeing in recent days, they are - reluctantly - going for Boris as the lesser of two weevils.

    A final written warning to the Party by many of them. But they won't sack the Tories this time. Perhaps other canvassers out there can confirm this is what they are finding, beyond the weird boundaries of strange old Totnes?

    very interesting post- enjoyed reading your reports in recent weeks
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive

    Okay the nasties on here have woken up.

    I'm off ...

    To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
    Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
    She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    edited December 2019
    My experience of PB is that if you spout a load of contentious bullshit, you tend to be called out on it...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.

    Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.

    But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.

    Guildford and Wimbledon you have a point. When you say Michael Gove isn’t entirely safe (Libs 30k behind, target seat 145). I struggle to take the rest of your tips seriously. He is incredibly safe with a stonking majority, Lab 2nd in 2017 and a seat very different in makeup from Guildford. If the Lib Dems even got close to winning Surrey Heath they’d be looking at over 50 seats.

  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    isam said:

    Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive

    Okay the nasties on here have woken up.

    I'm off ...

    To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
    You don’t debate. You just profess your infallible opinions.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    The moderates have a huge fight on their hands if they want to regain control of the party.

    A really interesting thread TSE, thanks
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Stocky said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive

    Okay the nasties on here have woken up.

    I'm off ...

    To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
    Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
    She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
    The Apocaplypse will come first
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019


    This is an important point, relatively rarely aired on this site. Political tribalism has many causes, but people on both left and right have legitimate reasons to no longer have faith in the 1990s and early 2000s technocratic economic consensus, which many centrists still yearn for a simple return to.

    There are new ideas needed in the centre, for those wishing to support it.

    I'm not really sure new ideas can fix it, new centrist ideas would by definition not be that radical, so centrists may just have to suck it up and wait for people to relearn what's wrong with the alternatives.

    There seems to be some ideological space for *liberalism*, but that's a 25% market at the absolute most, probably more like 15% in most places, and under FPTP that spells certain doom.
    I think they can help centrists. Blairism and Clintonism was briefly radical, in that it married avowed social and economic liberalism - there was no precedent for that on left or right during the 1980s. Economic liberalism originally came with popular nationalism and conservatism, and social liberalism came with social democracy. The centre needs something similarly new now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited December 2019
    Stocky said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive

    Okay the nasties on here have woken up.

    I'm off ...

    To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
    Aw that's spoiled my whole day, I feel so bad.
    She doesn`t really mean you isam - a few others are giving her a rough ride in my opinion. We really ought to be more polite to each other.
    Given how unpleasant she is - no. I will give no easy rides to people who bully others or who spout Nazi themes while pretending to have Jewish friends, particularly when spreading disinformation about polling.

    She unfortunately sums up all that is wrong with the current Labour Party - racist, dishonest and smug.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772



    Tony Blair.....

    I know there *used* to be one, but that was a long time ago...
    Indeed. Theresa May and Cameron were centrists, so was Gordon Brown. The last time an extremist won was Thatcher and I'm not even sure you could call her that.
    Thatcher was an extremist in that she broke with the existing consensus, but she was successful in creating a new consensus and thus defining a new centre - though her most fervent supporters caricatured her to create a new extremism.

    I wouldn't have described May as a centrist, but I think that goes to show how complicated the question becomes when Brexit cuts across the old political axis.

    I agree with @edmundintokyo - extremism wins votes now, not centrism. Thus the success for the Lib Dems in the Euros, but, unhappily for them, many of the most fervent Europhile voters are also left-extremists on economic policy, and, unlike with Leavers, the economy trumps the EU for Remainers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Floater said:

    The moderates have a huge fight on their hands if they want to regain control of the party.

    A really interesting thread TSE, thanks

    Which party are you referring to, Floater? Bit difficult to tell at the moment.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    isam said:

    Hordes of angry students, who look and smell like they haven't washed for a month, descending on working class towns demanding that unsuspecting, normal people vote for the extreme left might be more offputting than persuasive

    Okay the nasties on here have woken up.

    I'm off ...

    To the rest of you, that was a fun hour. Good debating with decent people. Ciao. x
    You don’t debate. You just profess your infallible opinions.
    Plus one
    Morning all
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Brom said:

    p.s. Having tipped the LibDems to win Guildford on here 2 months ago I'll give you another one. Woking. I think Jonathan Lord will hold on for the tories, but it's worth a flutter. There's a lot of LibDem traction.

    Dominic Raab is in big trouble. Michael Gove isn't entirely safe either. WImbledon might go LibDem too.

    But Woking's worth a punt if you don't mind losing a tenner. 12/1 is definitely worth it.

    Guildford and Wimbledon you have a point. When you say Michael Gove isn’t entirely safe (Libs 30k behind, target seat 145). I struggle to take the rest of your tips seriously. He is incredibly safe with a stonking majority, Lab 2nd in 2017 and a seat very different in makeup from Guildford. If the Lib Dems even got close to winning Surrey Heath they’d be looking at over 50 seats.

    I can tell you that - living in Surrey Heath as I do - Gove is as good as certain. However, having moved across from Woking recently I do know Lord is a generally unliked MP who does little for his constituency. The Lib Dem candidate has a good track record in woking (from his work as Mayor / as a councillor)
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