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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn the modern day Harold Wilson or John Major?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn the modern day Harold Wilson or John Major?

Jeremy Corbyn came to the Labour leadership contest as an outsider and was elected as a revolution, a rejection of Blairite centrism and a return to socialism. It was a choice to try to find and rally latent support on the left as a path to victory rather than trying to occupy the centre-ground and the tactics of triangulation. It’s a decision that the Democratic party is wrestling with in their search for a nominee in an election that feels both a great opportunity and a huge risk.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    First? Unlike Corbyn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Second, like Corbyn!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    RobD said:

    Second, like Corbyn!

    In Islington?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Greetings, UpTheMariners!

    Fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiish.
  • Raise your hands Tory voters of those that will go to work and be a proud Tory voter.

    Challenge
    - Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox.
    - Call your single mother colleague feckless.
    - Call any colleagues raised by single mothers illegitimate
    - Call your gay colleague a bumboy.

    Don't be afraid of Human Resources asking for a chat. Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. If he can say it why can't you..and don't worry the BBC, itv, sky, LBC and the billionaire press corporation will defend your right to say these things and make you a man of the people.

    No more need to hide behind a keyboard..express your real values and !ets make the British workplace tune Boris Johnson workplace!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2019
    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709
  • Labour was desperate for this election not to be a referendum on Brexit. Although it is indeed partly that, it's also become something even worse for Labour: a referendum on Corbyn himself.

    Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, but there must be some Labour supporters who don't want to go through this again in 5 years' time, and will quietly abstain to make sure there's a change at the top.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    She's followed us, hasn't she?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    I love that photo, one of the best things Corbyn has done as it shows he is not just some dour, droning miseryguts.

    On the point, he has followed the party rather than led it on this and a number of points - in his years as LOTO he has actually become more pragmatic, and cynical, that his worshippers or his opponents might believe.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Andrew said:
    Gadzooks :o
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    RobD said:

    She's followed us, hasn't she?

    Yes, I was hoping we'd given her the slip!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Wilson was ferociously bright. Not something which could be said of Corbyn. Also he tried to keep his party as a broad church, again not something which can be said of Corbyn.

    But he has largely been forgotten by the Labour Party, not something which will happen to Corbyn. Either he will be successful in turning Labour into something more akin to a mixture of Respect and the SWP and may also win power or he will be remembered as the leader who nearly destroyed his party.

    Not long to find out!

    Thanks for the header.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    RobD said:

    Andrew said:
    Gadzooks :o
    Someone posted a similar tale last night claiming the source was Edwina Currie. I've no idea why/how she would know.
  • Greetings, UpTheMariners!

    Fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiish.

    Which randomly reminds me of one of the weirdest but most hilarious (to me!) of the Downfall parodies:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGIBJDJg-_Y
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019
    I implore every PB-er in the world to watch that video of Boris in Jewish North London. If you can still vote for Corbyn after that....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Raise your hands Tory voters of those that will go to work and be a proud Tory voter.

    Challenge
    - Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox.
    - Call your single mother colleague feckless.
    - Call any colleagues raised by single mothers illegitimate
    - Call your gay colleague a bumboy.

    Don't be afraid of Human Resources asking for a chat. Boris Johnson is Prime Minister. If he can say it why can't you..and don't worry the BBC, itv, sky, LBC and the billionaire press corporation will defend your right to say these things and make you a man of the people.

    No more need to hide behind a keyboard..express your real values and !ets make the British workplace tune Boris Johnson workplace!

    If you pretend that anyone who votes Tory believes all those things then your side will never be able to convince those voters to vote your way, because you are attacking a mirage. If anything suggesting anyone who votes X is as bad as the worst aspects of X may well make people defensive and inclined to stick with X, and that goes for Labour too.

    All that kind of talk is designed to do is make the person saying it feel better about themselves.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 106
    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Good of Tim, formerly of PB to spot classic Jon Lansman.

    https://twitter.com/jonlansman/status/752078612766027777

    Are Momentum playing the really long game of waiting for Godot.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:
    Gadzooks :o
    Someone posted a similar tale last night claiming the source was Edwina Currie. I've no idea why/how she would know.
    Shes been canvassing there, she posted pics with the candidate
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Why are the tories suddenly bothered about Russian involvement when it didn’t seem to concern them before?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    One thing I'm curious about is how much of a SNP->Tory swing does there need to be for Tory gains in Scotland. A lot of those seats look a very blue shade of yellow ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    Sounds like typical panic about a bit of a challenge combined with hyperbole to frighten people to turnout on the day because otherwise all hope is lost. When leaflets to the seat I live in pretend it is going to be close for the Tories I don't know how seriously to take worried claims on twitter based on postal vote guesses and canvass returns.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    I wonder if Gogglebox is as good a focus group as any re politics. I'd say party strategists could do worse than watch the last few weeks episodes and gauge the public mood by the comments made when the tv watchers are shown the political interviews and debates

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    RobD said:

    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    One thing I'm curious about is how much of a SNP->Tory swing does there need to be for Tory gains in Scotland. A lot of those seats look a very blue shade of yellow ;)
    There are 3 or 4 gains on less than 1% swing iirc
  • Tory voter
    I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better)
    I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio)
    I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders
    I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so)
    I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    South West and Wales continue to disappoint the LDs.
  • Can somebody tell me. When the BBC etc talk about swing, are they using Butler or the Steed measure of swing?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    Both options make us a laughing stock. What’s your point?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    One thing I'm curious about is how much of a SNP->Tory swing does there need to be for Tory gains in Scotland. A lot of those seats look a very blue shade of yellow ;)
    There are 3 or 4 gains on less than 1% swing iirc
    God dammit man, now i'm not going to be able to sleep tonight :o
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    RobD said:

    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    One thing I'm curious about is how much of a SNP->Tory swing does there need to be for Tory gains in Scotland. A lot of those seats look a very blue shade of yellow ;)
    There are 3 or 4 gains on less than 1% swing iirc
    No, I'm wrong 2 on under 1% (perth and lanark) 3 more under 1.5% (ayrshire central, edinburgh sw and argyll and bute)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Can somebody tell me. When the BBC etc talk about swing, are they using Butler or the Steed measure of swing?

    Not sure. You could work it out from one of Andy's election videos on youtube if you have time to find a declaration with a swing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
    twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20

    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    If all these supposed targeted ads are as good as that one, the Tories have really upped their game. It is very much with the quality of the Maomentum stuff. I did like the quip about gluing himself with the icing.

    Talking of which, I see Labour have a video of Ben Elton endorsing them. I don't mean to be funny, but I thought he lived in Australia these days?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    Thank you @ukelect . I do like a predictor who dates and links to his predictions. Thank you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    Both options make us a laughing stock. What’s your point?
    We shouldn't do both.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    FPT
    Catching up on this thread, not sure which is the more unreal, MalcolmG's continued bile and invective directed at any non-SNP fanatics which he thinks is "banter" or the parallel universe some of our ultra-left wing PBers seem to be occupying. Tories comfortably ahead in the polls, Twitter awash with Labour canvassers predicting utter doom and gloom and the PB lefties are talking as if Corbyn is walking into Downing Street on Friday. Next we will be getting new letters from a certain gentleman explaining how Jo becomes PM on Friday!

    I hav eto respond to this, coming from a blinkered Tory who is bitter and twisted and comes across as sadder than Eyore , I say again get a life, me need fewer curmudgeons here, brighten your life up with some banter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
    There's just no way. I mean, the Tories didn't get below 150 even in 1997 and no one else has been close to 150 since 1935.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:
    Gadzooks :o
    Someone posted a similar tale last night claiming the source was Edwina Currie. I've no idea why/how she would know.
    Shes been canvassing there, she posted pics with the candidate
    Thanks! I'm not sure I believe that the parties really have any idea of what's going on.

    In 2017 I helped the Tories on election day in a marginal Labour constituency. By 6pm the campaign co-ordinator where I was said that they were sure we'd won the seat based on the canvass returns. Labour actually won it with a majority increased by 6000 votes. To be fair had the Tories got the vote in 2015 that they got in 2017 they would have won by a couple of thousand but they had no idea of how effective the Momentum GOTV engine was.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    I notice Tory Majority has been slowly drifting all day on Betfair. Might just be a reversal to some over-reaction to last night polls.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Catching up on this thread, not sure which is the more unreal, MalcolmG's continued bile and invective directed at any non-SNP fanatics which he thinks is "banter" or the parallel universe some of our ultra-left wing PBers seem to be occupying. Tories comfortably ahead in the polls, Twitter awash with Labour canvassers predicting utter doom and gloom and the PB lefties are talking as if Corbyn is walking into Downing Street on Friday. Next we will be getting new letters from a certain gentleman explaining how Jo becomes PM on Friday!

    I hav eto respond to this, coming from a blinkered Tory who is bitter and twisted and comes across as sadder than Eyore , I say again get a life, me need fewer curmudgeons here, brighten your life up with some banter.

    I've got a lot of time for your banter, Malc, because I know that deep down you are a Scottish Tory. :)

    *runs away*
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
    There's just no way. I mean, the Tories didn't get below 150 even in 1997 and no one else has been close to 150 since 1935.
    Which means either the anecdata is bollocks or 'we live in interesting times'
  • TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:
    Gadzooks :o
    Someone posted a similar tale last night claiming the source was Edwina Currie. I've no idea why/how she would know.
    Shes been canvassing there, she posted pics with the candidate
    It was me - Currie was trolling Rayner on Twitter, saying how are you going to be leader if you can't hold your seat?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    Sounds like typical panic about a bit of a challenge combined with hyperbole to frighten people to turnout on the day because otherwise all hope is lost. When leaflets to the seat I live in pretend it is going to be close for the Tories I don't know how seriously to take worried claims on twitter based on postal vote guesses and canvass returns.
    I can't believe there are many canvass returns at all in these safe Labour seats.
  • Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
    It feels like another part of what seems now to be the Labour strategy, please vote tactically...forget Corbyn, just vote to stop the Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    Both options make us a laughing stock. What’s your point?
    Voting in a terrible leader does not make democratic countries laughingstocks, and even if it did any impacts are temporary.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:
    Gadzooks :o
    Someone posted a similar tale last night claiming the source was Edwina Currie. I've no idea why/how she would know.
    Shes been canvassing there, she posted pics with the candidate
    It was me - Currie was trolling Rayner on Twitter, saying how are you going to be leader if you can't hold your seat?
    Yes, I went and looked up her tweets and she'd been there yesterday with the Tory candidate
  • kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    Sounds like typical panic about a bit of a challenge combined with hyperbole to frighten people to turnout on the day because otherwise all hope is lost. When leaflets to the seat I live in pretend it is going to be close for the Tories I don't know how seriously to take worried claims on twitter based on postal vote guesses and canvass returns.
    I can't believe there are many canvass returns at all in these safe Labour seats.
    It could also be that rather than getting the usual 99% approval, they got a few very angry people telling them like it is and they aren't used to it. And getting in a panic. Something I would never do....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    Why are the tories suddenly bothered about Russian involvement when it didn’t seem to concern them before?

    The Russians were paying them last time and they want to maintain their monopoly of corrupt foreign power finance?

    Ah, my sable hat. Spasibo. Vy ochen' polezny
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    If Corbo gets a GE record of 0/2, that would make him the modern day Neil Kinnock wouldn't it?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
  • ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    You can get 9/4 on Lab Hold in Ynys Môn.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 106
    RobD said:

    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    One thing I'm curious about is how much of a SNP->Tory swing does there need to be for Tory gains in Scotland. A lot of those seats look a very blue shade of yellow ;)
    The swing required looks to be about 2% from current levels. Not that far off!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    Sounds like typical panic about a bit of a challenge combined with hyperbole to frighten people to turnout on the day because otherwise all hope is lost. When leaflets to the seat I live in pretend it is going to be close for the Tories I don't know how seriously to take worried claims on twitter based on postal vote guesses and canvass returns.
    I can't believe there are many canvass returns at all in these safe Labour seats.
    Making supposed panic probably even more baseless.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited December 2019

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
    I’ll be voting Lib Dem in Newcastle North I think but won’t decide 100% until I’m in the polling booth.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.

    The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
    There's just no way. I mean, the Tories didn't get below 150 even in 1997 and no one else has been close to 150 since 1935.
    Which means either the anecdata is bollocks or 'we live in interesting times'
    Anecdata might not be bollocks, but I think we all know it can be extrapolated well beyond what it should. If it is correct, then this will indeed be a remarkable election. And a victory on a scale Johnson truly does not deserve.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ukelect said:

    RobD said:

    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    One thing I'm curious about is how much of a SNP->Tory swing does there need to be for Tory gains in Scotland. A lot of those seats look a very blue shade of yellow ;)
    The swing required looks to be about 2% from current levels. Not that far off!
    Thanks!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
    Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    He won’t win
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
    Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
    Rubbish. I’m Jewish and would vote Labour without hesitation upon a new direction.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.

    The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.


    Only 10% gap predicted on last MRP though, and these being postals could perhaps make it seem like a close fight.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Lab seats, Betfair Exchange:

    169 or less: 16.5 / 17.5
    170-179: 23 / 30
    180-189: 20 / 27
    190-199: 11.5 / 13.5
    200-209: 8.8 / 9.6

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159424916
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:
    Gadzooks :o
    Someone posted a similar tale last night claiming the source was Edwina Currie. I've no idea why/how she would know.
    Shes been canvassing there, she posted pics with the candidate
    It was me - Currie was trolling Rayner on Twitter, saying how are you going to be leader if you can't hold your seat?
    Yes, I went and looked up her tweets and she'd been there yesterday with the Tory candidate
    Thanks both.
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    kle4 said:

    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    South West and Wales continue to disappoint the LDs.
    though the csv file has LD to retain Brecon & Radnor by 600 votes!
  • Andrew said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.

    The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.


    Only 10% gap predicted on last MRP though, and these being postals could perhaps make it seem like a close fight.
    However, it seems unlikely the Tory lead has widened since then.
  • isam said:

    If Corbo gets a GE record of 0/2, that would make him the modern day Neil Kinnock wouldn't it?

    Kinnock was exactly the man I thought of when Corbyn got a rapturous reception in Sheffield on the night of the Leaders' Question Time...

    https://thetab.com/uk/sheffield/2019/11/22/breaking-jeremy-corbyn-just-appeared-on-sheffield-uni-concourse-to-greet-huge-crowds-41146
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Hardly likely to admit to using cocaine during an election campaign.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1203691156082696192
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
    There's just no way. I mean, the Tories didn't get below 150 even in 1997 and no one else has been close to 150 since 1935.
    Which means either the anecdata is bollocks or 'we live in interesting times'

    That tweet was talking about postal vote returns if you click into their tweet history, it's not massively surprising that Labour may be doing quite badly on postals.

    I've got a pet theory that the Con vote is going to be hyper efficient this time round, the Tories are losing a lot of support in true blue seats in the south, while gaining in Lab held northern seats. What this likely means is that big majority seats like NE Hants, Maidenhead, Henley, E Hants, Cotswolds, Windsor, Surrey Heath etc will see their 22,000+ majorities reduced to half (or less) of that, with the gains coming in semi-winnable targets.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
    Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
    Nah, only on current trajectory. I know loads who'd be delighted to vote for say Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper as leader of a reformed centre left party in 2024. Or even a slightly toned-down version of the current policy platform, but shorn of the extremist outriders and their manufactured obsession with Palestine.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited December 2019
    Although he was not explicitly named, Mike Smithson’s Lib Dem leaflets in Edinburgh were mentioned on BBC Good Morning Scotland this morning. They weren’t overly impressed.

    (1:17:50)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
    Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
    Nah, only on current trajectory. I know loads who'd be delighted to vote for say Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper as leader of a reformed centre left party in 2024. Or even a slightly toned-down version of the current policy platform, but shorn of the extremist outriders and their manufactured obsession with Palestine.
    But that's my point. Labour show no signs of changing direction, and their mad membership won't allow it. And the party is now infested with anti-Semite supporters, dragged in by Jezbollah, from the Far Left.

    Ugh.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Tories to gain Carshalton from the LDs by 2 votes according to UK-Elect.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
    Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
    Nah, only on current trajectory. I know loads who'd be delighted to vote for say Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper as leader of a reformed centre left party in 2024. Or even a slightly toned-down version of the current policy platform, but shorn of the extremist outriders and their manufactured obsession with Palestine.
    But that's my point. Labour show no signs of changing direction, and their mad membership won't allow it. And the party is now infested with anti-Semite supporters, dragged in by Jezbollah, from the Far Left.

    Ugh.
    If they did change direction, it would be interesting what would happen to the network of maomentum and the fake news "alternative media" sites that have been built up. Seems unlikely they are just going to go away quietly.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
    Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
    Nah, only on current trajectory. I know loads who'd be delighted to vote for say Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper as leader of a reformed centre left party in 2024. Or even a slightly toned-down version of the current policy platform, but shorn of the extremist outriders and their manufactured obsession with Palestine.
    But that's my point. Labour show no signs of changing direction, and their mad membership won't allow it. And the party is now infested with anti-Semite supporters, dragged in by Jezbollah, from the Far Left.

    Ugh.
    If they did change direction, it would be interesting what would happen to the network of maomentum and the fake news "alternative media" sites that have been built up. Seems unlikely they are just going to go away quietly.
    SWP or the Greens I'd say
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
    Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
    Nah, only on current trajectory. I know loads who'd be delighted to vote for say Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper as leader of a reformed centre left party in 2024. Or even a slightly toned-down version of the current policy platform, but shorn of the extremist outriders and their manufactured obsession with Palestine.
    But that's my point. Labour show no signs of changing direction, and their mad membership won't allow it. And the party is now infested with anti-Semite supporters, dragged in by Jezbollah, from the Far Left.

    Ugh.
    If they did change direction, it would be interesting what would happen to the network of maomentum and the fake news "alternative media" sites that have been built up. Seems unlikely they are just going to go away quietly.
    Quite. Labour are back to 1980 and the Bennite takeover. It took them 17 years to get rid of ALL the loonies and properly change trajectory.

    And this time their moral problems look worse.

    Very sad. We need an Opposition.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    5% return available on Tories winning most seats.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132117695
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2019
    Probably well known, but to enhance the caveats....


    https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1203694148550889474



    Might be possible to take historical postal vote data and extrapolate for each constituency based on demographics. From a quick glance versus a few models I track, it looks like that PV bias would explain a lot of it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    Nobody is changing their mind now I don't think.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Endillion said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this



    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20


    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    People think voting for Brexit makes us a laughing stock around the globe.

    Voting for Corbyn would make us reviled.
    "Save us from that man". Wow.

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.
    You'd think so, but there seem to be quite a few who are voting Lib Dem. Lots of young Remainers, plus some never-Tories across age ranges. Almost no one who will admit to voting Labour, however, which is quite some turnaround from say 2010 or even 2015.
    Labour have probably lost the Jewish vote for ever. At least a generation.
    Nah, only on current trajectory. I know loads who'd be delighted to vote for say Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper as leader of a reformed centre left party in 2024. Or even a slightly toned-down version of the current policy platform, but shorn of the extremist outriders and their manufactured obsession with Palestine.
    But that's my point. Labour show no signs of changing direction, and their mad membership won't allow it. And the party is now infested with anti-Semite supporters, dragged in by Jezbollah, from the Far Left.

    Ugh.
    If they did change direction, it would be interesting what would happen to the network of maomentum and the fake news "alternative media" sites that have been built up. Seems unlikely they are just going to go away quietly.
    Quite. Labour are back to 1980 and the Bennite takeover. It took them 17 years to get rid of ALL the loonies and properly change trajectory.

    And this time their moral problems look worse.

    Very sad. We need an Opposition.
    Interesting, quite feisty, interview with Benn from William Buckley

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hES7WlDLs8
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    kle4 said:

    If you pretend that anyone who votes Tory believes all those things then your side will never be able to convince those voters to vote your way, because you are attacking a mirage. If anything suggesting anyone who votes X is as bad as the worst aspects of X may well make people defensive and inclined to stick with X, and that goes for Labour too.

    All that kind of talk is designed to do is make the person saying it feel better about themselves.

    "No decent person can vote Labour given the antisemitism issue."

    Same nonsense.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    Tory voter
    I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better)
    I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio)
    I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders
    I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so)
    I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!

    Thats really nasrty stuff and a travesty of the truth. You ought to
    be ashamed for posting it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    If you pretend that anyone who votes Tory believes all those things then your side will never be able to convince those voters to vote your way, because you are attacking a mirage. If anything suggesting anyone who votes X is as bad as the worst aspects of X may well make people defensive and inclined to stick with X, and that goes for Labour too.

    All that kind of talk is designed to do is make the person saying it feel better about themselves.

    "No decent person can vote Labour given the antisemitism issue."

    Same nonsense.
    It really really isn't "nonsense".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Why are the tories suddenly bothered about Russian involvement when it didn’t seem to concern them before?

    Because it might cost the country more than just 20£.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Byronic said:

    I think we can safely say Boris has 99% of the Jewish vote.

    The Cons got the lion's share of that in GE 2015.
  • Tory voter
    I'm voting Tory to increase child poverty (the more children die the better)
    I'm voting Tory to increase homelessness (the more people homeless the more homes I can have in my portfolio)
    I'm voting Tory to increase privatisation (always good to see the few drive up costs for profits to pay shareholders
    I'm voting Tory to get Brexit done (sush I know it was passed but Boris says so)
    I'm voting Tory because gay people are bumboys, single mothers are feckless and illegitimate and Muslims are letterboxes. It has to be stopped!!!!

    Thats really nasrty stuff and a travesty of the truth. You ought to
    be ashamed for posting it.
    The old expression comes to mind. Do not feed the trolls
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    isam said:

    If Corbo gets a GE record of 0/2, that would make him the modern day Neil Kinnock wouldn't it?

    Yep. Setting up the landslide.

    #pidcock2024
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    ukelect said:

    Reposting this, as it was posted on the old thread just as this thread started!

    The latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    You can get 9/4 on Lab Hold in Ynys Môn.
    According to UK Elect, Tories gain Burnley with 8% margin - surely not??

    Any insights?
  • New feature: track the latest constituency voting intentions on our website

    https://t.co/xTe4Cz8DZc https://t.co/98O6IIZXmG
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Caveats about rumours and these being postals, but still …… wow.

    https://twitter.com/kevinmousley/status/1203682632476872709

    If it bears out we are looking at labour closer to 100 seats than 200 and some astonishing losses (newcastle north, the Sunderlands, Wansbeck etc)
    There's just no way. I mean, the Tories didn't get below 150 even in 1997 and no one else has been close to 150 since 1935.
    Which means either the anecdata is bollocks or 'we live in interesting times'

    That tweet was talking about postal vote returns if you click into their tweet history, it's not massively surprising that Labour may be doing quite badly on postals.

    I've got a pet theory that the Con vote is going to be hyper efficient this time round, the Tories are losing a lot of support in true blue seats in the south, while gaining in Lab held northern seats. What this likely means is that big majority seats like NE Hants, Maidenhead, Henley, E Hants, Cotswolds, Windsor, Surrey Heath etc will see their 22,000+ majorities reduced to half (or less) of that, with the gains coming in semi-winnable targets.
    That would be wholly consistent with the notion of the Tory centre of gravity shifting Northwards into the Midlands and East Anglia. I would be surprised if there were a widespread reduction of majorities on that scale further South, but a few thousand off here, there and everywhere? Absolutely.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    As I've argued for some time, this election was called (in terms of being a contest) on the night of June 11th when ComRes anointed Boris Johnson as Conservative leader.

    Frustrating Brexit was never going to end well for those doing the frustrating as in any battle between PM and Parliament, the former was always coming to come out on top. We saw with each week of obfuscation and delay the Conservative poll share rising inexorably.

    In a sense, getting this contest done and giving Johnson his majority is a case of getting the pain out of the way - the longer it went on, the worse the pain was going to get.

    @HYUFD describes Johnson as a populist in the model of a Trump or a Salvini - I'm not 100% convinced, he's much less of a political outsider than Trump.

    The question then becomes whether British politics in the 21st Century will come to emulate patterns we see in other parts of the world - one Party always in power and effecting change through periodic changes of leader and policy? Johnson acts like an Opposition leader coming into Government - he has scarcely mentioned May or Cameron or indeed anything the Conservatives have done or not done in Government since 2010.

    I do think as with Trump there will be a core of voters who will stay loyal to Boris no matter what but getting them to turn out in local contests may be more of a challenge - I think the 2021 County elections (last fought at the height of May;s popularity) and the 2022 London local elections will be informative.

    The Opposition cannot waste their time with personal attacks on Johnson - it's not effective. There will be plenty of lines on attack on the pledges and commitments Johnson has made and as we've seen with the nurses pledge, the reality behind the promise isn't always as it seems.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,086
    edited December 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    Good of Tim, formerly of PB to spot classic Jon Lansman.

    https://twitter.com/jonlansman/status/752078612766027777

    Are Momentum playing the really long game of waiting for Godot.

    He's been celebrating with his famous wine cellar ... :-)
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Byronic said:

    This is really quite striking. Even extraordinary.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking. I confess I got a bit emotional watching this
    twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20

    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.

    If all these supposed targeted ads are as good as that one, the Tories have really upped their game. It is very much with the quality of the Maomentum stuff. I did like the quip about gluing himself with the icing.

    Talking of which, I see Labour have a video of Ben Elton endorsing them. I don't mean to be funny, but I thought he lived in Australia these days?
    The really concerning point is that Ben Elton does mean to be funny.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Labour's latest attempt at a gamechanger

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1203676495228604417?s=20

    What does it even mean? "Personal care"?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    If you pretend that anyone who votes Tory believes all those things then your side will never be able to convince those voters to vote your way, because you are attacking a mirage. If anything suggesting anyone who votes X is as bad as the worst aspects of X may well make people defensive and inclined to stick with X, and that goes for Labour too.

    All that kind of talk is designed to do is make the person saying it feel better about themselves.

    "No decent person can vote Labour given the antisemitism issue."

    Same nonsense.
    It really really isn't "nonsense".
    Byronic is an anagram of I, Corbyn 😀
    Good grief, so it is! You think maybe he may not be who he claims? A surprising theory, to be sure, and not one I had considered... :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    It really really isn't "nonsense".

    It is. Approx 10 milllion people will vote Labour on Thursday. Most of them, all will agree, are decent people. QED.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Nobody is changing their mind now I don't think.

    But plenty will have yet to engage it.
This discussion has been closed.