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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB GE2019 Analysis: Corbyn’s Satisfaction Ratings at elections
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB GE2019 Analysis: Corbyn’s Satisfaction Ratings at elections
I’ve written before about Jeremy Corbyn’s personal ratings difficulties, and they did not improve in the following months.
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Con: 16
Lab: 46
LibD: 22
BXP: -
Green: 4
SNP: 5
PC: 2
So, more Remain voters plan to vote Conservative than plan to vote Green, SNP and PC combined.
As for Venezuela, why did its economic decline predate sanctions?
Sounds like Labour think there needs to be a committee meeting prior to anybody having a new phone line being put in. When they talk about “(local) democratic oversight of essential utilities” do they stop to think what most people actually think of their local council?
After a bright morning in the east, Election Day will be foul with a band of persistent heavy, driving, rain followed by more hill snow in Wales and the north in the late afternoon & evening and sleet falling to lower levels even in the south. The gales will persist so where snow does fall late in the day, it will be whiteout conditions. Generally though, the afternoon & evening are going to see miserable conditions.
'Flat Cap Fred' may be put off voting in the evening.
But at least the students won't be going home early as was my fear last week when the northerlies were showing up on the model runs.
No idea who or how this weather will help. But I refuse to believe it's going to prompt a high turnout.
65% or below looks a very good bet to me.
Yes, one poll shows a 14% lead. It may be the correct outcome. Equally, it may not.
And, for the record, Johnson is loathed too. I would like to see him beaten (destroyed is far too emotive and violent a word to use) and for the Conservative party to be returned to the sensible centre right ground. It will happen, eventually.
This election remains on a knife-edge, like it or not.
But I also think much of this achievement will be because Jeremy Corbyn is Johnson's opponent.
The question for Labour will be, after a schallacking at the polls, what next? They'll still have 150 or more MPs, and there must be some talent in there.
The question the LibDems will have is, given how piss poor Corbyn is and how personally unpopular Johnson is, why didn't they do better? Sure, they'll increase their number of seats and their vote share (and one shouldn't forget how low they were laid in 2015). But they should have done better, and there's little doubt that Mrs Swinson is going to need to improve, if the LDs are to go much further.
I suspect that the 2019-2024 parliament will not be without its challenges for Boris Johnson. Once Brexit is (symbolically) done in seven weeks or so, then the UK has to make some awkward choices: how to manage immigration in a post transition period; how much to diverge from the EU; is the price of a US FTA worth paying; how not to disappoint voters who were promised the fruits of the magic money tree.
Johnson is lucky with his opponents this time. That may not happen again.
Neil Hughes - as in formerly homeless and struggling with mental illness Neil Hughes - is the LibDem candidate in Workington.
For the record, I think it is unlikely he will win this time around. But if anyone wants to bet on him, I'm prepared to give a good price.
I too am expecting a shellicking for Labour this week. The interesting bit will be what happens next. Blair ran in many ways one of the most competent of all post-war administrations in 97-01 but it all went wrong soon thereafter. If Boris wants to be remembered for anything other than Brexit, he's going to need to stay more focused than he's yet proven he's capable of (which I say even as a fairly firm supporter). And then there's Events.
In Boris's favour, if he does win a landslide, never before will a new prime minister have taken the reins with such low public expectations. It may be the case that he's able to outperform these fairly comfortably and retain a +40% voting coalition with ease.
Some of us did say it was going to be this way. Mirror Labour's Brexit policy without any of Labour's bat-shit crazy spending plans and aim to get out the other side of Brexit without being the party of Rejoin - then they could have had something to rebuild for. But after this election they will need to go away and work out who they are for, every bit as much as Labour.
During the Blair and Brown years the UK's foreign savings went negative.
Johnson has a narrower window of opportunity.
But he is bright and tough and determined. I wish him the best of luck, but I fear the next five years will be a struggle.
shellicking
Of all the typos in the world, this is now one of my favourite.
Revenge by labrador.
Of all the typos in the world, this is now one of my favourite.
Revenge by labrador.
I'm not sure I know enough about labradors to get this but happy to have amused you on a Monday!
Cheers.
I was shellicked a couple of months after recovering our small shop to sell from a long term tenant (hairdresser) when they moved. Turned out that one of their promotional measures was to give dog biscuits to regular dog walkers' dogs so they were gossiped about locally.
Dog appears at door, and on opening door Matt W gets nearly licked to death in expectation of the regular dog biscuit.
A pack of Boneos have been supplied to the next door shop, and a sign with an arrow affixed to the door.
The texture of life :-).
(a round-up of all parties' digital campaigns)
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/conservatives-lib-dems-facebook-general-election
So Zac has been hung out to dry. Why no resources for Redwood's seat in Wokingham? Easy hold or already gone?
If the real result is 14-15pp the error from this latter model would be 3 standard deviations or double the previous biggest error. So either leader satisfaction has broken down as an indicator this time around (Brexit?), or some previously gold standard polling firms will have egg on their face. We'll know by Thursday night.
If Labour really do that badly then so to a lesser extent will the LDs and SNP as they all all fish from the same pond.
This and an impression that the election results are a forgone conclusion would take the voting percentage below 67%??? Worth a punt?
Temperatures are going to be above average for the time of year. I think very cold weather might have impacted turnout a bit, but not rain.
I'm more surprised by St Ives being part of this list, given that the majority is only 0.6% there. I've always expected the tories to win it with an increased majority given that it voted leave, but still expect it to be close, like 5%. Maybe their polling is showing they're performing better than expected against the libdems in leave seats.
It's not over yet though and the Tories need to ensure there is no complacency and they get every vote out on the day. Extraordinary to see Boris going into the Labour heartlands in the last few days of the campaign. It's almost unbelievable.
If there is a large majority then the rules will be able to be put on a statutory footing which makes the shitty stunts we have seen from the hard left at C4 consigned to history. If a party refuses to take part, then it should have the right to the same amount of air time. If the party puts someone up then either they take part or the event does not proceed.
Why do you think it would cross 70%. Most people I speak to seem less enthusiastic about this election and think Boris is going to win anyway.
We want a system in which geographically concentrated minorities (e.g., Welsh speakers, or NI Catholics) are protected.
Just as in the US Presidential elections, it is perfectly reasonable to have a system in which the rights of small states or small groups are protected.
It is a feature, not a bug.
It is perfectly possible for centrist parties to win power under FPTP (e.g. Canada), The UK Liberals are just incompetent.
In fact, our Liberal friend Justin has lost his taste for PR -- after all, he would have lost power in the last Canadian election, if he had actually implemented it.
Which also, of course, makes an utter nonsense of the claim that the Lib Dem revoke policy is ‘undemocratic’. For them to be in a position to put it into action would require a supermajority of the national vote.
Swinson’s failure was the inability to articulate this from the outset.
Perhaps he is good at constituency work, but he really seems like he is in the wrong job - hes a man designed to lobby mps, not be an mp.
Still a sizeable Labour vote in Totnes itself, and they seem to have hoovered up the Greens, who were expected to have gone for Wollaston when they stood down their candidate. Trouble for the LibDems is that whilst some ahve high regard for her as a constituency MP, for others Wollaston = Tory = Austerity. Brexit is all they have in common - and it is not enough.
I guess the reality is that we’re heading for a Boris win (though I don’t buy the larger predictions of his majority). If not, it’ll be a fascinating/troubled time. For starters, where does Boris go for extra votes if he’s short? DUP and bin his deal or LDs and have a referendum? Either of those and he’s toast. I’m not even sure he’d get any Lab leavers through the lobby so immediately after an election.
He uses bluster and humour to wriggle out of ever being pinned down, and is an unprincipled opportunist of the first order. He is also lazy. And in less than a couple of months’ time pretty much the only principal and objective that he has championed will be ticked off, leaving him without an agenda and a mandate for nothing. Apart from being not Corbyn.
None of these skills lend themselves to resolving the challenges that lie ahead. Almost the only skill he has that might suit him for high office is picking good people and his willingness to trust them to get on with things. But it’s a huge ask to get British government to work that way, and letting your colleagues get on with things in politics carries risk as well as reward.
He is already the most unpopular new PM in polling history, and after Survation may be about to become the least popular election winner ever. I fear we are in for years of turmoil.
Perhaps spooked by that, since then they have been an equal opportunity criticiser.