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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets firm up even more on a CON majority

SystemSystem Posts: 11,015
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets firm up even more on a CON majority

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  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2019
    First?

    Looks like it! On topic, if the MRP looks positive tomorrow night then I think the Tories are going to do this. Although there'll still be a little tiny voice of nagging doubt about the dreaded robots until the results actually prove they've not been on the march.
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    BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019
    Huh. I just checked Electoral Calculus on a whim and instead of a majority of 20 it now has 46, i.e. 348 seats, the exact SportingIndex midpoint. Apologies if this has been noted.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353
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    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    BluerBlue said:

    Huh. I just checked Electoral Calculus on a whim and instead of a majority of 20 it now has 46, i.e. 348 seats. Apologies if this has been noted.

    December 8th vs December 6th (I don't like how the previous prediction vanishes tbh)
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Bad day for Boris, but probably the best day the Daily Mirror has had for many years. Good on the parents, though, for objecting to their son being used as a political tool.

    It shouldn't matter what anyone's politics are, it's a pretty low blow when the plight of a sick 4 year old is used in an election campaign.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

    And voted 63% Labour last time.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    edited December 2019
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    If I were a Labour strategist nervous about Labour’s prospects in Barnsley, the last person I would want wading into the debate is Len McCluskey. He’s from Lancashire, for starters. That’s even before we go onto his long history of dodging dealing, self-serving decisions and personal aggrandisement.

    If the Tories win this election, I will want to know what Seumas Milne was being paid to work for them.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html
  • Options
    OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 168
    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    speedy2 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

    And voted 63% Labour last time.
    9/1 Con if you think a 19.9% swing likely.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    https://order-order.com/2019/12/09/hancock-advisor-punched-labour-activist-leeds-hospital-visit/

    https://order-order.com/2019/12/09/momentum-thugs-organising-cash-reward-attack-boris-milkshakes/

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    Jason said:

    Bad day for Boris, but probably the best day the Daily Mirror has had for many years. Good on the parents, though, for objecting to their son being used as a political tool.

    It shouldn't matter what anyone's politics are, it's a pretty low blow when the plight of a sick 4 year old is used in an election campaign.

    On the scale of things I do not think it is a bad day for Boris

    He took the fight to the bedrock seats of labour and fought his corner

    With the diversion of the angry set too at the hospital I expect this to be just one of those things

    More important to me is the Welsh poll. We need labour to stop takimg us for granted here in Wales

    And only 2 more whole days left of the campaign
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,324
    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    Keep up. The mob was about three people and the adviser walked into someone's arm.

  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    ydoethur said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    If I were a Labour strategist nervous about Labour’s prospects in Barnsley, the last person I would want wading into the debate is Len McCluskey. He’s from Lancashire, for starters. That’s even before we go onto his long history of dodging dealing, self-serving decisions and personal aggrandisement.

    If the Tories win this election, I will want to know what Seumas Milne was being paid to work for them.
    At the start of the campaign, he was up here, telling the pesky Scots to 'come home to Labour'. I am therefore confident of a sizeable fall in the SLab vote.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,212
    I suspect that the dip at the end is ICM but the trend is clear. On Friday we may all be lamenting what a boring election this turned out to be even if it didn't feel that way at the time.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,022
    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    Keep up son, we're at the red face BJers shuffling away from their excessive and misplaced outrage stage of the story.
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    BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will this stupid bullshit get more views than Andrew Neil?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    Keep up. The mob was about three people and the adviser walked into someone's arm.

    Agreed. Mail wrong on the story
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    The rumoured swings are impossible to believe unless the country will vote on Leave vs Remain lines only.

    Here are equally improbable swings this time in America:

    https://firehousestrategies.com/analysis/december_2019_battleground_survey/

    Biden going from +10 in Wisconsin to -10 against Trump in just 9 months.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    ydoethur said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    If I were a Labour strategist nervous about Labour’s prospects in Barnsley, the last person I would want wading into the debate is Len McCluskey. He’s from Lancashire, for starters. That’s even before we go onto his long history of dodging dealing, self-serving decisions and personal aggrandisement.

    If the Tories win this election, I will want to know what Seumas Milne was being paid to work for them.
    How come the unions get to spend money too?
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    camel said:

    speedy2 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

    And voted 63% Labour last time.
    9/1 Con if you think a 19.9% swing likely.
    I think it's the BXP effect; they seem quite hopeful there.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    contrarian said:

    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    Evidence ?
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited December 2019
    I've only just realised that James Cleverley is the MP for Braintree. This is even better than that time I discovered the Labour candidate for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    DavidL said:

    I suspect that the dip at the end is ICM but the trend is clear. On Friday we may all be lamenting what a boring election this turned out to be even if it didn't feel that way at the time.

    Sorry how can you say 'the trend is clear' when survation has the tory lead blowing out and the last poll in Wales has the tories gaining eight seats.

    'Polls all over the place' would be correct, surely.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Well - we were warned things would get nasty if Labour looked like losing
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    RobinWiggs said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

    It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10
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    theproftheprof Posts: 9
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Endillion said:

    I've only just realised that James Cleverley is the MP for Braintree.

    That’s a bit thick.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,549
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    A few days ago I placed two constituency bets (the only ones I've done). One was laying Ed in Doncaster North, the other was laying Labour in Barnsley East.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and as Leavy.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    not dark sinister sources this time?
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Endillion said:

    I've only just realised that James Cleverley is the MP for Braintree. This is even better than that time I discovered the Labour candidate for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley.

    Edit: Conservative candidate for Bristol North West is called Mark Weston. This just keeps getting better. Can we have a whole HoC like this please.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    theprof said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    contrarian said:

    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    It’s hard to believe all the polling in the North, Midlands and Wales is incorrect. I just think Lab supporting a 2nd ref instinctively makes it impossible for many Labour folk to support them again, regardless of Jeremy Corbyn. There were clues with Caroline Flint suddenly becoming the deal’s biggest fan. Clearly she realised how it was falling apart for Labour on the doorstep and for those MPs that still back remain the situation will be even worse.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    Evidence ?
    The evidence is in the betting Mr G. The betting markets aren;t convinced by some of the polls leads.

    I'm not saying the bettors are right, but its a 'I'll believe it when I see it' kind of thing.

    I admit I'm in that camp a bit, but then I don;t have any connections in labour heartlands really.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,412
    camel said:

    speedy2 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

    And voted 63% Labour last time.
    9/1 Con if you think a 19.9% swing likely.
    More likely to be BXP than Con, I would have thought?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Endillion said:



    Edit: Conservative candidate for Bristol North West is called Mark Weston.

    the classic in cider?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    edited December 2019
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    Keep up. The mob was about three people and the adviser walked into someone's arm.

    Quoting "The Boxer" seems apt...

    "All lies and jests
    Still a man hears what he wants to hear
    And disregards the rest..."

    Could be the theme tune for this Election
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    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    I've only just realised that James Cleverley is the MP for Braintree. This is even better than that time I discovered the Labour candidate for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley.

    Edit: Conservative candidate for Bristol North West is called Mark Weston. This just keeps getting better. Can we have a whole HoC like this please.
    Alfred T. Jagermeister in Airdrie and Shotts?
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    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Claudette Beef in Angus?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    Keep up. The mob was about three people and the adviser walked into someone's arm.

    Saved Labour some taxi money then

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Survation still deleted from Wiki poll list.

    Are some people betting on the ICM whilst being unaware of Survation?

    ICM is a poor poll for Con but surely offset by the Welsh YouGov. Wales is only 5% of the UK but has large number of marginal seats so is disproportionately important.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,412
    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.
    I assume that's to help Jon Tricket because he's a Corbinist, rather than any particular panic.

    Cooper (NorPonCas), Creagh(Wakefield), Sherriff (Dewsbury) etc not pure enough to support?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,304
    Andy_JS said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    A few days ago I placed two constituency bets (the only ones I've done). One was laying Ed in Doncaster North, the other was laying Labour in Barnsley East.
    I think I’m on Labour in both of those! 😳
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    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Anyone called Jim in Derbyshire Dales
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

    It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10
    No 10 sources briefed Laura K and she parroted that on her Twitter feed . That’s what happened . No 10 is turning into Trumps WH .

    A cesspit of fake news !
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    theprof said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    No.

    However - newsflash - nor does Corbyn. He just sees it as a useful propaganda opportunity.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    The rumoured swings are impossible to believe unless the country will vote on Leave vs Remain lines only.

    Here are equally improbable swings this time in America:

    https://firehousestrategies.com/analysis/december_2019_battleground_survey/

    Biden going from +10 in Wisconsin to -10 against Trump in just 9 months.

    Trump 13% ahead of Warren and Sanders in Wisconsin.

    Trump 5% ahead of Biden in Michigan, 6% ahead of Sanders, 9% ahead of Warren and 11% ahead of Biden and Buttigieg.

    In Pennsylvania Trump 5% ahead of Biden, 7% ahead of Warren and 10% ahead of Sanders, 6% ahead of Buttigieg and 4% ahead of Bloomberg.

    Trump getting his own Boris bounce it seems
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MikeL said:

    Survation still deleted from Wiki poll list.

    Are some people betting on the ICM whilst being unaware of Survation?

    ICM is a poor poll for Con but surely offset by the Welsh YouGov. Wales is only 5% of the UK but has large number of marginal seats so is disproportionately important.

    South Wales is also one of those 'used to be labour's back yard' areas. IF its happening there, its more likely to be happening in old labour areas.
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    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    only just got to Penistone.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,549
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    A few days ago I placed two constituency bets (the only ones I've done). One was laying Ed in Doncaster North, the other was laying Labour in Barnsley East.
    I think I’m on Labour in both of those! 😳
    I don't expect Labour to lose either of them, but I thought there was value in the bets nonetheless.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    MikeL said:

    Survation still deleted from Wiki poll list.

    The Surv poll is a pending change, but not many have permissions to accept updates (pages like that get vandalised constantly without moderation).
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Andy_JS said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    A few days ago I placed two constituency bets (the only ones I've done). One was laying Ed in Doncaster North, the other was laying Labour in Barnsley East.
    http://ow.ly/ZgRU30q0h5Y

    This suggests the Tories are giving Doncaster North a real go, would be symbolic if Ed, the architect of Labour chaos were to lose his seat. I expect the extra spending the Tories have and the barrage of Facebook adverts will effect voting decisions in the final days more than anything that happens on the national stage.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,324
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

    It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10
    The Mail credits "Tory sources".
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    camel said:

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.
    I assume that's to help Jon Tricket because he's a Corbinist, rather than any particular panic.

    Cooper (NorPonCas), Creagh(Wakefield), Sherriff (Dewsbury) etc not pure enough to support?
    I don’t know. Hemsworth is one area I’ve been looking at thinking something funny might happen. Strongly leave and with a candidate who, for all his vast ability, is also as charismatic as a damp cloth and nearer seventy than sixty.

    Would be a shock - but less of a shock than Easington or Ashton and there are plenty of rumours about those two.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Absolutely awful ITV news segment for Bozo .
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,304
    Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...
    That’s wishful thinking.

    Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

    That’s not British.
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    dawn21dawn21 Posts: 7
    Ok you might ignore people like me but there are lots of us out there We might find Boris a less than ideal PM but we find Corbyn worse It is ok if you can just leave but someone like me is too old. I can see with Labour all I worked for being taken away, I bet no one on here had beans on toast for Christmas dinner because you were too busy I already know I will loose the married persons allowance and dividends on our pension Carry on voted for Labour if you must.
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Cookie said:

    camel said:

    speedy2 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

    And voted 63% Labour last time.
    9/1 Con if you think a 19.9% swing likely.
    More likely to be BXP than Con, I would have thought?
    10/1 BXP if you think a 27.7% swing likely.

    Personally I expect a sizeable (7+) swing to BXP, smaller swing to Con, and a comfortable Labour hold.

    If Labour lose Barnsley Central then I expect the SNP will be the official opposition.
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    NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 329
    I remember the 1987 election when as a Tory candidate I was punched by Labour activists who also kicked my car when I did some canvassing in Dalmarnock in the east end of Glasgow. The irony is I was visiting an aunt and uncle of my father who had lived there for 30 years.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Casino_Royale said:

    Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...
    That’s wishful thinking.

    Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

    That’s not British.
    The general election of 1784, where the Prime Minister was nearly lynched by a mob from the opposition Brooks’ club, waves hello.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I think the hospital stuff will play slightly better for Lab than Tories today, I can’t see it being a huge issue unless it drags on until Thursday. Be very surprised if the news isn’t leading with the volcano tonight which is a story of greater interest and intrigue to most outside the political bubble Id think. The only people in my office who seemed to notice the Hancock story were the 2 Tory haters who are incredibly wound up about just about everything since this election was called!
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    nico67 said:

    Absolutely awful ITV news segment for Bozo .

    Yep, have to agree. Unforced error from him with that phone, and absolute gold dust for Corbyn.

    It's got the NHS smack bang central news 3 days before the election. This will test Johnson's teflon coating to destruction.
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    BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    nico67 said:

    Absolutely awful ITV news segment for Bozo .

    What is ITV? :wink:

    I jest, but I literally haven't watched a moment of it in the last 4 years...
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708
    Casino_Royale said:

    Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...
    That’s wishful thinking.

    Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

    That’s not British.
    Whats British changes, sometimes for good, sometimes for bad. When the countries leaderships actively try and divide us why be surprised when that results in people over reacting and being nasty to each other.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited December 2019
    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    What was absolutely true was a hate filled hard left rent a mob was sent to a hospital to harass and intimate.

    Outrageous behaviour by Corbyn Labour
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,119
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    theprof said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    Evidence ?
    FWIw, purely anecdotally, I found quite a few "former Labour now anti" people at the WWC end of the constituency who we were recanvassing who were reluctantly coming back to Labour, and colleagues said they were noticing the same, to a moderate degree. Whether that's more generally true, or even a serious trend here, I genuinely have no idea.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    BannedinnParis said:

    only just got to Penistone.

    Geoffrey Cox, obviously. There are two standing; one for the Tories and one for what remains of UKIP.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,096
    BluerBlue said:

    nico67 said:

    Absolutely awful ITV news segment for Bozo .

    What is ITV? :wink:

    I jest, but I literally haven't watched a moment of it in the last 4 years...
    The people whose votes Johnson plans to win this election off the back of watch it quite a bit, I believe.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    What was absolutely true was a hate filled hard left rent a mob was sent to a hospital to harass and intimate.

    Outrageous behaviour by Corbyn Labour
    A mob of 3 ! Stop digging . Bozo screwed up with his response, just admit it and move on .
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    NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 329
    nico67 said:

    Absolutely awful ITV news segment for Bozo .

    Rubbish! It showed him saying it was terrible and apologising to Jack's parents and dispatching Matt Hancock to deal with it
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

    It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10
    No 10 sources briefed Laura K and she parroted that on her Twitter feed . That’s what happened . No 10 is turning into Trumps WH .

    A cesspit of fake news !
    Oh give up the confected outrage!

    From the video it looks like an accident. Someone is waving their arms around not looking at where they were pointing and it caught someone else. The arm wasn't stationery or at the side if this was football it would have been a foul even if it was an accident.

    The person who was clipped by the person waving their arms around may have quite reasonably thought and said they were punched without realising it was an accident until the video surfaced. Don't assume conspiracy when it could be a mistake - like the guy in the video caught someone else in the face by mistake.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,412
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

    A few days ago I placed two constituency bets (the only ones I've done). One was laying Ed in Doncaster North, the other was laying Labour in Barnsley East.
    I think I’m on Labour in both of those! 😳
    Me too!
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,549
    edited December 2019
    6% for the LDs in Wales is pretty hopeless, even though it's not one of their stronger areas.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    What was absolutely true was a hate filled hard left rent a mob was sent to a hospital to harass and intimate.

    Outrageous behaviour by Corbyn Labour
    Mob? I saw three nutty protestors, two of which were half-hearted about it and the cyclist too aggressive, plus a handful of journalists. Three is a mob that scares a cabinet minister, give me strength.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    Chris said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    theprof said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    What was absolutely true was a hate filled hard left rent a mob was sent to a hospital to harass and intimate.

    Outrageous behaviour by Corbyn Labour
    A mob of 3 ! Stop digging . Bozo screwed up with his response, just admit it and move on .
    Legally, three people causing a disturbance is a riot.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    https://twitter.com/MPIainDS/status/1202969400514625536?s=20
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    What was absolutely true was a hate filled hard left rent a mob was sent to a hospital to harass and intimate.

    Outrageous behaviour by Corbyn Labour
    If that’s based on having watched the video clip you need serious help. If it isn’t then suggest you do. Absolutely incredible use of language. Neither labour or Tory deserve anybody’s vote, the worst I’ve ever seen on offer at a GE.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 36% (=)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    BXP: 3% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 6-8 Dec.
    Changes w/ 2-5 Dec.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,119
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

    It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10
    The Mail credits "Tory sources".
    Was the Mail not reporting earlier that someone had actually been arrested for punching a Tory adviser in the face?

    Stories that inaccurate don't come out of an honest mistake.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 36% (=)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    BXP: 3% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 6-8 Dec.
    Changes w/ 2-5 Dec.

    Tory lead up even with Comres then
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    SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    camel said:



    Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.


    Waste of resources sending them to Wyoming in the first place. It's solidly GOP...
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,549
    NickPalmer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    Evidence ?
    FWIw, purely anecdotally, I found quite a few "former Labour now anti" people at the WWC end of the constituency who we were recanvassing who were reluctantly coming back to Labour, and colleagues said they were noticing the same, to a moderate degree. Whether that's more generally true, or even a serious trend here, I genuinely have no idea.
    How accurately were you able to predict the overall result in Broxtowe in 1997, 2001, etc, from canvassing?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    NickPalmer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    Evidence ?
    FWIw, purely anecdotally, I found quite a few "former Labour now anti" people at the WWC end of the constituency who we were recanvassing who were reluctantly coming back to Labour, and colleagues said they were noticing the same, to a moderate degree. Whether that's more generally true, or even a serious trend here, I genuinely have no idea.
    But equally others could be going the other way

    We haven't long to wait Nick
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Jason said:

    nico67 said:

    Absolutely awful ITV news segment for Bozo .

    Yep, have to agree. Unforced error from him with that phone, and absolute gold dust for Corbyn.

    It's got the NHS smack bang central news 3 days before the election. This will test Johnson's teflon coating to destruction.

    It won’t make a massive difference to voting but this will help Labour in those Leave seats . But it was I agree a silly error . I don’t see why he didn’t just look at the phone . What was he thinking .

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    BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    Chris said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

    It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10
    The Mail credits "Tory sources".
    Was the Mail not reporting earlier that someone had actually been arrested for punching a Tory adviser in the face?

    Stories that inaccurate don't come out of an honest mistake.
    The original story isn't honest journalism but a confected smear, so why should the response to it be?
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    kjohnw1kjohnw1 Posts: 95
    Question is can the tories get back on the front foot in the next two days . It feels dangerous for them after today’s sloppy error . I am genuinely terrified Corbyn might just stop Boris from getting his majority as labour voters just can’t bring themselves to vote Tory
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 36% (=)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    BXP: 3% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 6-8 Dec.
    Changes w/ 2-5 Dec.

    This is based on the Gina Miller poll with no prompting.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    Screaming you're not welcome in this country at people is a definite sign of the kinder gentler politics
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,970
    ydoethur said:

    camel said:

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.
    I assume that's to help Jon Tricket because he's a Corbinist, rather than any particular panic.

    Cooper (NorPonCas), Creagh(Wakefield), Sherriff (Dewsbury) etc not pure enough to support?
    I don’t know. Hemsworth is one area I’ve been looking at thinking something funny might happen. Strongly leave and with a candidate who, for all his vast ability, is also as charismatic as a damp cloth and nearer seventy than sixty.

    Would be a shock - but less of a shock than Easington or Ashton and there are plenty of rumours about those two.
    One of the most interesting lines of enquiry in the post-results analysis will be whether there is any significant difference in the swing against Corbynistas. I suspect figures like Cooper are more likely to retain traditional Labour support. What we’re hearing again and again (much more than it being about Brexit) is that the turn towards the Tories is motivated by contempt for Corbyn.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,272
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    THat kinder, gentler politics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    What was absolutely true was a hate filled hard left rent a mob was sent to a hospital to harass and intimate.

    Outrageous behaviour by Corbyn Labour
    A mob of 3 ! Stop digging . Bozo screwed up with his response, just admit it and move on .
    Of course it was not a mob and Boris did mishandle it

    And that is my honest answer as a conservative member
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,708
    wooliedyed said:

    Screaming you're not welcome in this country at people is a definite sign of the kinder gentler politics

    Where the PM starts, the rest will follow.
This discussion has been closed.