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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

10.00pm GMT December 12th 2019 The Exit Poll

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Comments

  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited December 2019
    First!
  • Like Boris.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Third like the SNP.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited December 2019
    A close first, if it hadn't been for the logging on foul up.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited December 2019
    Is there an author byline for this (excellent) piece? I’m presuming TSE...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    No malarkey
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401
  • Being “up for Balls” was not really a challenge; the announcement happened as I was on my way to work.
  • By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    FPT Curse of the new thread

    I wonder how the campaign would have gone if the Tories had been campaigning strongly for remain and Labour had campaigned to leave. A lot of the rhetoric (at least on here) has been about how bad the Tories are and the need for change. I would have loved to see the tone of the comments from the left and right if the Brexit positions were reversed 😂
  • Excellent article.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    You would think absolutely anything that might make you think that its going to be a hung parliament. Unless all the polls are wrong then its a comfortable tory majority.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Thank you for the summary for the overnight timings.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FF43 said:

    Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401

    That looks like the subsample. For the UK wide poll.

    The Scotland only poll is different.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    You would think absolutely anything that might make you think that its going to be a hung parliament. Unless all the polls are wrong then its a comfortable tory majority.
    You're not an overly pleasant person at times. I think it will be a narrow Conservative win and I'm on to make money tonight.

    I just don't think the Conservatives sounded very confident last night. ITV News said the same thing. Don't shoot me for passing on something that is out there.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    I would love and really need to sit this one out and get a good nights sleep, but that is unlikely to happen.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    According to the Courier the Survation Scotland is

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=19

    Fits with YouGov MRP. Everything on a knife edge.

    If that is correct the LDs will be on one seat, O&S, in Scotland.

    If YouGov is correct it will be four.
    Aren't the SNP usually flattered by opinion polling? A chance they won't do quite as well as 2017, and the Tories do a bit better....which would be fun.
    Indeed, I know Ipsos Mori were grappling with that exact problem.

    They still put out a poll with SNP on a stonking lead after making their adjustments.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    It reminds me of the scene in Mars Attacks where the martians are going around shooting people whilst saying they come in peace.

  • Useful timeline.

    I'm planning to stay up a bit this time, although woe and depression (we'll have to see what results indicate that...) may mean I don't stay up for long.
  • Betfair has finally paid out on the election date?

    Just rejoice at that news.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,723
    Small error, me thinks. In 1959 "The Hartlepools", which covered pretty well the same area as the Hartlepool seat today, was won by the Conservative John Kerans, who had commanded HMS Amethyst in the Yangtse Incident.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited December 2019
    FF43 said:

    Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401

    That is not the full Survation Scotland only poll, this is


    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=20
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

    There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
  • SCons seem about on the same level as last time.

    So it will all come down to SNP turnout and Unionist tactical voting.
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    hooray - betfair exchange have paid out on "next election year : 2019" bets.

    thought they might wait until polls closed...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Jonathan said:

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    It reminds me of the scene in Mars Attacks where the martians are going around shooting people whilst saying they come in peace.

    Hahaha :smiley: So true. I love that film. Gloriously anarchic.
  • Being “up for Balls” was not really a challenge; the announcement happened as I was on my way to work.

    Yep, I can remember getting strange looks from the drivers next to me as I cheered and did fist pumps whilst stuck in traffic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Some of the Scottish Tory seats have barely any Labour vote to squeeze. I think Aberdeen South might be more vulnerable than Banff as a result
  • I've not had a bet since the election was called; nor did I watch the debates; too busy at work. Perhaps this is typical of the electorate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    In 2017 the Tories were below everyone's range. In 2015 above. 2010 below iirc
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Some of the Scottish Tory seats have barely any Labour vote to squeeze. I think Aberdeen South might be more vulnerable than Banff as a result

    Differential turnout Pulpstar. Its all about the differential turnout.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.
  • Betfair has finally paid out on the election date?

    Just rejoice at that news.

    Surely that is because it now can't be delayed. Imagine if you were due to win bigly on a 2020 date and red on Dec 2019, you'd be demanding your cash if it was delayed for what ever reason (queens death, terrorist attack, foot and mouth out break).
  • nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    I've not had a bet since the election was called; nor did I watch the debates; too busy at work. Perhaps this is typical of the electorate.

    I'm the same. A few posts on here is all I've done. Voting this evening.
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401

    That is not the full Survation Scotland only poll, this is


    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=20
    Was the Indy question asked?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288

    Being “up for Balls” was not really a challenge; the announcement happened as I was on my way to work.

    Yep, I can remember getting strange looks from the drivers next to me as I cheered and did fist pumps whilst stuck in traffic.
    and now you would like him back?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

    There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
    A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.

    Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist
  • Big queues to vote in Buckingham
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401

    That is not the full Survation Scotland only poll, this is


    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=20
    Was the Indy question asked?
    It was, narrow No lead but if Boris gets a Tory majority there will be no indyref2 anyway, certainly not before Holyrood 2021 as he will block it
  • Small queue in front of me at the polling station this morning. Nothing really remarkable to report, looked steady and I’d suggest a good turnout but nothing more.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    Pulpstar said:

    Some of the Scottish Tory seats have barely any Labour vote to squeeze. I think Aberdeen South might be more vulnerable than Banff as a result

    The three border seats and Kincardineshire are safe Tory seats. These are straight SNP/Con fights and the Tories are way ahead. The other seats are in play. It depends on the degree to which 2017 Labour voters will switch to the SNP and the 2017 SNP to Con switchers will stay with the Cons. On these figures it looks like the second group will stay with the Cons, although as post independence referendum SNP voters they are not obvious unionists.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Enjoyed this exchange:

    "Here’s a clue...don’t vote for the one hiding in a fridge"

    "Indiana Jones?"
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    while a hung parliament is my preferred outcome today, I do almost wonder if I would prefer a large tory majority to à small one, on the off chance that it means Boris Johnson feels able to govern more as he did while mayor as a one nation type and throw the ERG overboard like he did the DUP.

    If its a majority of 10 or so we could be in trouble, the ERG loons will have much more of a say and Johnson will have to curry favour with them. In addition there will be no more pro eu or left tory Rebels in the party, all the old ones have either left or backed down, and the new tory MPs will all show loyalty to Johnson as he got them elected.

    My guess today is

    42 tories
    35 labour
    11 Lib Dems

    Leading to a small tory majority. Purely a huch, I've been very remote from this campaign so no anecdata to report beyond the fact that the idea of tactical voting really seems to be widely spoken of now, even more than 2017, so Lib dems should do better in seats than votes even while being squeezed by Labour.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Which areas - or is this ironic ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Big queues to vote in Buckingham

    Joyous release of a proper contest?
  • That’s labour above Foot in 83 but below Kinnock in 87.
  • HYUFD said:

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

    There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
    A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.

    Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist
    Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401

    That is not the full Survation Scotland only poll, this is


    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=20
    Was the Indy question asked?
    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1039926/exclusive-courier-poll-showing-rise-in-support-for-independence-gives-election-day-boost-to-snp/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Fpt for @Alanbrooke

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm off to do a few hours' telling in Southgate.

    My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.

    Your forecast of 18 Northern Irish seats is pretty bold. How confident are you we won't see Ulster breaking out and getting north of 20?
    That's a good point RCS

    This country needs more NI MPs.

    if we had 650 of them they could all refuse to sit together like they do back home and then there would be nobody in government and the country would be a better place.
    One of the more shocking stats of this election is that there are 100 000 people waiting for hospital treatment in NI for more than a year. Pretty astonishing in a place with only 1 800 000 people. It puts the failures of the English and Welsh NHS into perspective.

    that's probably saving lives

    when my dad went in to his local hospital in NI some years back the bastards nearly killed him ( lack of basic care, norovirus, etc ) . He only recovered when he got back out !
    A very bizarre experience was, when visiting soldiers in MPH, after passing through the normal reception, there was a little booth, usually manned by a fresh-faced young female nurse, where, because they weren't allowed in the hospital, we had to hand over all our weapons and she would smile sweetly as she collected them up and gave us a ticket as though as she was taking coats at the theatre.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn stuck a few noughts on his retail offer.

    "You can fool some of the people all of the time - and those are the ones you want" George W. Bush
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    WhisperingOracle final prediction - from hung parliament and Lab minority government to maximum Tory majority of 30.
  • So looks like there will be a big turnout in London...probably promising for Labour
  • Useful timeline.

    I'm planning to stay up a bit this time, although woe and depression (we'll have to see what results indicate that...) may mean I don't stay up for long.

    What type of result would have you rejoicing Mr Dancer? I am genuinely interested as though we may have different views on some things your views are often well nuanced.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Which areas - or is this ironic ?
    No it’s on the Guardian site with photos , the areas vary , Battersea. Balham , also down on the Sussex coast a guy reporting a queue .
  • algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
  • HYUFD said:

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

    There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
    A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.

    Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist
    Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.
    Of course - all majority held views are extremist.

    Particularly to those opposed in the minority.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401

    That is not the full Survation Scotland only poll, this is


    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=20
    Was the Indy question asked?
    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/1039917/general-election-exclusive-courier-poll-suggests-conservatives-and-snp-to-be-tonights-big-winners/

    Support for independence close to the 50% mark.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

    There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
    Disraeli, Shaftesbury, Wilberforce were all more significant

    None of them were pro-EU
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Anecdata - voted early for me this morning, and never been that early (7.10 am) but lots of voters already. It may just be the hard working folk (like me natch) but got the impression of people wanting this done and then move on (to Christmas!)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    Morning All,

    Two days off work to spend time with the little one and watch election night (didn't tell the wife though!).

    Anyway, really tricky to call this election. My Tory seat projection of 315 to 360 remains in tact for now. Will try to finalise my seat projections later today (if I can be bothered!).

    What is clear is that we have an appalling choice to make between our major political parties. If I was in Scotland, would vote SNP in a heartbeat - they are the only sane party in this country who are led by a competent sane leader.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2019
    Campaign (effectiveness) Scorecard

    Conservative (7/10)
    SNP (6/10)
    Labour (5/10)
    LibDem (0/10)
    Brexit (-10/10)

    The Tories has the most effective campaign for sheer aggression and the effectiveness of their slogan, which is a classic IMO almost as good as "take back control". It's the one memorable thing. Boris made big mistakes, he should have been more prime ministerial in his response to terror and should been interviewed by Neil. The manifesto is a blank cheque, which is what Boris wants. A calculated risk. If they don't win a majority it will be down to trust in Boris and Boris' actions and the lack of manifesto commitments made that worse.

    The SNP were characteristically solid, if not dull. A safe pair of hands in an uncertain world. Exactly what was required this year.

    Labour's attack was blunted by an overly complex (albeit entirely correct) Brexit policy. They should have been able to call "get Brexit done" for the bullshit it truly is. Their NHS line is overused and burned out, only when they stopped talking about it and events took over did NHS concerns have impact. They had no effective response to the AS charges. The manifesto unlike 2017 didn't offer much to the right of the party and had a DFS sale vibe that did not resonate as well as 2017. The open goals they missed where numerous.

    The LibDems went for a presidential campaign with Swinson and a Revoke policy, both of which were singularly unpopular. Worse still they looked extreme. Instead they should have gone with a safe pair of hands, and classic Lib Dem "none of the above" campaign. A missed opportunity.

    The Brexit party shot themselves in the foot from the start and kept firing. A total mess.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Meanwhile my mother is still 'stranded' on a broken down P&O cruise ship in the Canaries, enjoying warm sunshine and free food and drink.
  • Being “up for Balls” was not really a challenge; the announcement happened as I was on my way to work.

    Yep, I can remember getting strange looks from the drivers next to me as I cheered and did fist pumps whilst stuck in traffic.
    and now you would like him back?
    I think eds reputation has been enhanced since he left office. As a leaver, I realise His scheming with Brown to prevent us joining the Euro in order to exert control over Blair allowed us the chance to vote to leave the EU, if we'd have joined the Euro the vote would have gone the other way and we would be stuck for ever.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Charles said:

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

    There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
    Disraeli, Shaftesbury, Wilberforce were all more significant

    None of them were pro-EU
    Haha. Magnificent piece of retrofit :smiley:
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited December 2019
    Over the course of the last few weeks, ElectoralCalculus have shown Ceredigion being won by Plaid Cymru, then the LibDems, and then (bizarrely) Labour.

    So, it is no surprise that the final Electoral Calculus now shows Ceredigion being won by the Tories. (This is a seat that they have never held in modern times.)

    I think if the Labour vote is as high as suggested by EC, then Plaid Cymru will likely retain the seat. The LibDems needs to get the Labour vote down to take Ceredigion.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

  • nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Not really where I am in suburbia. If you commute and work many do it on the way in. But that’s just my experience.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Their final prediction before 2017 was a Conservative majority of 72.

    Just saying.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited December 2019
    There may be fewer polling stations this time (hence longer queues) since local authorities are finding it harder to get staff to participate? (or just have much fewer staff available...)
  • HYUFD said:

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

    There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
    A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.

    Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist
    Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.
    Of course - all majority held views are extremist.

    Particularly to those opposed in the minority.

    No majority held views are not all extremist, that is silly. They can be though in the context of the left right continuum. There are extreme left articles of faith that might, at certain times, be highly popular, but are ,nonetheless, extremist. A measure of extremism may be measured by whether divisive language is used to support the case. The desire to point out scapegoats such as immigrants, Zionists or Germans is indicative of extremism. Farage and Corbyn neatly fit into this category as exponents of the art. Johnson is someone who is happy to jump on the bandwagon if it suits his own ambition.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    I don't think the Tories deserve a landslide but they might get one anyway. About a 30% chance IMO.
  • HYUFD said:

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

    There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
    A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.

    Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist
    Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.
    Of course - all majority held views are extremist.

    Particularly to those opposed in the minority.

    No majority held views are not all extremist, that is silly. They can be though in the context of the left right continuum. There are extreme left articles of faith that might, at certain times, be highly popular, but are ,nonetheless, extremist. A measure of extremism may be measured by whether divisive language is used to support the case. The desire to point out scapegoats such as immigrants, Zionists or Germans is indicative of extremism. Farage and Corbyn neatly fit into this category as exponents of the art. Johnson is someone who is happy to jump on the bandwagon if it suits his own ambition.
    Farage is an extremist but Brexit isn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    alex_ said:

    There may be fewer polling stations this time (hence longer queues) since local authorities are finding it harder to get staff to participate? (or just have much fewer staff available...)

    You cant just change polling stations like that. Changes in polling arrangements by local authorities need to go through a formal consultation and decision making process.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712


    Their final prediction before 2017 was a Conservative majority of 72.

    Just saying.
    Survation's final poll before 2017 had a 1% Tory lead, it now has an 11% Tory lead in its final 2019 poll.

    Just saying.

    Anyway off to telling in Epping and knocking up in Chingford and Woodford Green, see you at 10pm for the exit poll before I head to the Epping Forest count
  • So looks like there will be a big turnout in London...probably promising for Labour

    Or one the other hand, labour vote just mounting up in safe seats...

    Voted early, didn't seem too busy, but i expect a lot of working people might be tempted to do that to 'get it done' so they don't have to bother this evening.
  • WhisperingOracle final prediction - from hung parliament and Lab minority government to maximum Tory majority of 30.

    Lab minority? That's quite ambitious as it would need the tories to be below 312 seats (the DUP will never support Corbyn), likely a bit less as I don't think the libdems would support it.

    I think a hung parliament is a possible albeit unlikely outcome, but one where Corbyn can become PM would require a massive polling error - more so than in 2015 and 2017.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    Don't worry Dan, John Curtice has already told us that Labour can't get an overall majority.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Given the time of year, it's not at all surprising that turnout at 07:00 to 08:00 is up (assuming it actually is). A lot of people will have events to attend after work.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    Anecdata - voted early for me this morning, and never been that early (7.10 am) but lots of voters already. It may just be the hard working folk (like me natch) but got the impression of people wanting this done and then move on (to Christmas!)

    A flurry first thing is quite normal; in most areas there are people with long days who need to get voting out of the way.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited December 2019
    Interesting to consider what projections would be had Conservatives instigated a “normal” boundary review - 650 seats et al. We’re still using 2005 boundaries. It’ll get to a point where people start claiming that any boundary review, even the fairest, least politically influenced, is a gerrymander.

    Also worth remembering that boundary reviews can play havoc with tactical voting.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Instagram is pushing voting hard.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    You would think absolutely anything that might make you think that its going to be a hung parliament. Unless all the polls are wrong then its a comfortable tory majority.
    You're not an overly pleasant person at times. I think it will be a narrow Conservative win and I'm on to make money tonight.

    I just don't think the Conservatives sounded very confident last night. ITV News said the same thing. Don't shoot me for passing on something that is out there.
    The one thing I do know is that you can't judge anything about an election from the mood of the candidate on the night before.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Pulpstar said:

    In 2017 the Tories were below everyone's range. In 2015 above. 2010 below iirc

    Yes - it's the Tories turn to outperform their polling, that's the really worrying thing.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    You would think absolutely anything that might make you think that its going to be a hung parliament. Unless all the polls are wrong then its a comfortable tory majority.
    You're not an overly pleasant person at times. I think it will be a narrow Conservative win and I'm on to make money tonight.

    I just don't think the Conservatives sounded very confident last night. ITV News said the same thing. Don't shoot me for passing on something that is out there.
    The one thing I do know is that you can't judge anything about an election from the mood of the candidate on the night before.
    Or even on the night -- see Bob Marshall-Andrews.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    There may be fewer polling stations this time (hence longer queues) since local authorities are finding it harder to get staff to participate? (or just have much fewer staff available...)

    You cant just change polling stations like that. Changes in polling arrangements by local authorities need to go through a formal consultation and decision making process.
    Technically I think they can even set the polling district as the polling place, so they can have flexibility on where the place, and thus polling station, actually is. Emergency measure not common though.
This discussion has been closed.