I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It does matter though. If Labour gain 5 seats in London how can you say that’s good for the Tories?
Of course if it’s a landslide it makes no difference but these seats being so tight means a lot. Every gain counts.
Just been to the shops and heard a young couple getting supplies and very excited to stay up to watch Jezza win. I didn't have the heart to tell them the polls.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It could become a very good argument for voting systems changes, though, if the pile-ups are extreme.
Why? If the pile-ups are extreme then those areas with pile-ups get an MP that reflects them. Areas which made other choices get their choice.
Some people don't seem to understand the rest of the country doesn't reflect their own little bubble. FPTP works at ensuring every area is represented, its working as intended in your scenario.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It does matter though. If Labour gain 5 seats in London how can you say that’s good for the Tories?
Of course if it’s a landslide it makes no difference but these seats being so tight means a lot. Every gain counts.
CHB you're starting to sound desperate.
It’s not desperate. I’ve just upped my position on NOM.
I’m just pointing out that Labour gains in London are not good for the Tories, IF the margins end up being tight. That’s all.
At the last election in 2017 those doing the exit poll said that it looked good for the Tories until later into the afternoon and evening when more data came in.
i.e. a lot of Tories are above working age and vote in the daytime.
Interesting situation going on today. Those voting at the moment do seem to be disproportionately motivated for Labour. And it's not just in London or Manchester but in all the cities.
I'm trying to be objective. Who knows? But there's clearly a very heavy turnout in some areas.
This would be the Tories' nightmare scenario - that polling respondents in the Red Firewall who say they'll vote Tory are actually of the can't-be-arsed persuasion. It may all depend on whether Boris has generated genuine enthusiasm or is just that celeb bloke from HIGNFY who people are ephemerally keen on when pressed.
The highest turnout areas in 2017 were Remain leaning constituencies , and that also happened in the 2019 Euro elections . Turnout in those amongst Labour Leave areas was down in both those .
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
Bedford is not in the North
I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise
I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
I could have picked any number of examples, but this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to this site. Two posters having a conversation and taking account of what the other poster says rather than doing the electronic equivalent of shouting at each other. It’s not always like this, but it happens much more often than on any other forum I’ve been on.
Just been to the shops and heard a young couple getting supplies and very excited to stay up to watch Jezza win. I didn't have the heart to tell them the polls.
Well it was in the run up to GE2017 that I promised my then girlfriend that I would marry her if Corbyn became PM.
Christ it was a scary few hours on election night.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It could become a very good argument for voting systems changes, though, if the pile-ups are extreme.
Yep, definitely. I'd love to see us move to either the Irish model or the Norwegian system, with (roughly) each county being a constituency, with one seat held back in each constituency for national levelling, like proposed here: http://ballotbox.scot/ballot-box-britain-ge-2017-under-pr
However with regards to this election, seeing a 'massive surge' (that is likely to be nothing out of the ordinary in safe and ultra safe Lab seats like Streatham and Manc Central is totally irrelevant.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It could become a very good argument for voting systems changes, though, if the pile-ups are extreme.
Why? If the pile-ups are extreme then those areas with pile-ups get an MP that reflects them. Areas which made other choices get their choice.
Some people don't seem to understand the rest of the country doesn't reflect their own little bubble. FPTP works at ensuring every area is represented, its working as intended in your scenario.
Overall voting numbers are still a facet of legitimacy, though. Look at the furore in the US with Trump and Clinton's voting numbers, for example, although a different case.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It does matter though. If Labour gain 5 seats in London how can you say that’s good for the Tories?
Of course if it’s a landslide it makes no difference but these seats being so tight means a lot. Every gain counts.
CHB you're starting to sound desperate.
It’s not desperate. I’ve just upped my position on NOM.
I’m just pointing out that Labour gains in London are not good for the Tories, IF the margins end up being tight. That’s all.
May I ask where you think these gains will come from then? All assuming there will not be a single net loss for Labour in London.
I usually walk to the polling station in the evening. Today we went at about 8am. The polling station is only about 50 yards away, but still I'd rather get it done this morning than go out in the dark later.
I agree. I normally vote around 6ish but I'm off to cast my vote now. Steady rain here in Lancashire, but nothing abnormal for December.
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
Bedford is not in the North
I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise
I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
I could have picked any number of examples, but this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to this site. Two posters having a conversation and taking account of what the other poster says rather than doing the electronic equivalent of shouting at each other. It’s not always like this, but it happens much more often than on any other forum I’ve been on.
I’m always willing to hold my bass up when wrong as are most here. You get the occasional rude people but in general people here are pleasant and understanding.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It does matter though. If Labour gain 5 seats in London how can you say that’s good for the Tories?
Of course if it’s a landslide it makes no difference but these seats being so tight means a lot. Every gain counts.
CHB you're starting to sound desperate.
It’s not desperate. I’ve just upped my position on NOM.
I’m just pointing out that Labour gains in London are not good for the Tories, IF the margins end up being tight. That’s all.
May I ask where you think these gains will come from then? All assuming there will not be a single net loss for Labour in London.
LD gains in the South. Labour gains in Scotland. Small gains in the red wall for the Tories but less than 10.
Just been knocked up by a LibDem in Cambridge despite telling their canvasser last week I definitely wouldn't be voting for them this time. Perhaps they think it's very close, but then they've knocked me up in previous generals too. They certainly aren't lacking in foot soldiers here compared to Labour.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
My polling station in Windsor was empty when I arrived at 11am - two people came in whilst I was there. I subsequently went to the local Wetherspoons which was very busy...
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It could become a very good argument for voting systems changes, though, if the pile-ups are extreme.
Why? If the pile-ups are extreme then those areas with pile-ups get an MP that reflects them. Areas which made other choices get their choice.
Some people don't seem to understand the rest of the country doesn't reflect their own little bubble. FPTP works at ensuring every area is represented, its working as intended in your scenario.
Overall voting numbers are still a facet of legitimacy, though. Look at the furore in the US with Trump and Clinton's voting numbers.
There is no furore besides those who don't accept that the States are different and California doesn't get to override other States choices - and I say that as someone who would have voted Hillary and anyone but Trump. The electoral college there is working as intended just as FPTP is here.
I hope in the States whomever the Democrats choose targets the "flyover" States and doesn't just seek to appeal to coastal Californians etc otherwise we'll be stuck with the Tango coloured turd for another 4 years.
Just been to the shops and heard a young couple getting supplies and very excited to stay up to watch Jezza win. I didn't have the heart to tell them the polls.
Well it was in the run up to GE2017 that I promised my then girlfriend that I would marry her if Corbyn became PM.
Christ it was a scary few hours on election night.
Imagine how she felt!
Does she still have that dark cloud looming over her, or was it just for GE2017?
I think there'll be a high turnout in London and the South East, where Labour's commuter and youth offer will see their vote hold up well.
Less so in the 'red wall'
Anecdata from a morning spent with 4 ex miners, 2 ex nurses and an ex teacher. Old northerners are not voting Labour.
It all depends on switching though. I have been surrounded by working class Tories my entire life. Just because people are nurses or miners, in tu or not, there’s no umbilical cord to labour. I really hate the anecdotal stuff on here. But my anecdote is travelling to football last Saturday, through Bristol east, through filton, Bristol ne and in Bristol west, counting the posters, very little libdem this time. Affluent areas in semi detached suburb was surprised how Many labour posters and the absence of Tory ones. But park up in middle of what was council estate in my youth and Conservative posters every where. It’s a brexit thing, Cummings and Boris have convinced the poorest people in our country brexit frees up a lot of money and makes their country and life much better.
Out of my 7 strong 'focus group', at least 5 of them have switched from Lab to Con, but over a period of 10 years. It seems when you leave the Labour market, you leave Labour. Corbyn incredibly unpopular - I mean viscerally. Johnson seen as a clown.
More anecdata from students in Newcastle Central. Everyone, and I mean everyone, is voting Labour.
The regional breakdowns are even worse for Labour than the national vote share. The only upside for them is the Tories seems to be the swing to the tories in the west midlands is small. Otherwise Labour are going down less in the southeast and southwest where it doesn't help them seat wise and plummeting in the north. *However* a big comfort for them is the north east has such big Labour majorities, they could hold on despite big swings to the tories.
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
Bedford is not in the North
I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise
I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
I could have picked any number of examples, but this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to this site. Two posters having a conversation and taking account of what the other poster says rather than doing the electronic equivalent of shouting at each other. It’s not always like this, but it happens much more often than on any other forum I’ve been on.
I’m always willing to hold my bass up when wrong as are most here. You get the occasional rude people but in general people here are pleasant and understanding.
Is ‘hold my bass up’ a typo or a phrase I ought to know?
To be fair to Corbyn he did have a good lost week didn’t he? He did go into marginals in leave areas every day on soapbox taking on those thinking of supporting Tory brexit:
“What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities. Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign, families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up! lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.” “There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.”
If only he had done this in 2016!!!! Too late now to end up in the right place, Jez far too late.
I've voted Coventry South (Suburbs); Bath (Small city); Sheffield Central (Very urban); NE Derbyshire (Small Town/Large village); Bassetlaw (Village)
The longest queue and only time I've ever had to wait was Sheff Central in 2010. Queues are almost directly proportional to how populated or otherwise your area is.
Leeds City Council have upgraded our polling station from one to two portacabins and you get directed to the right one for your street by an official outside. I can see the polling station from my bedroom window.
Safe Labour here and full of university staff/students/graduates so I'm not going to speculate as to what's happening outside the cities, but there was a larger queue outside both cabins around an hour ago than there was outside the single cabin for the entire polling day in 2017. There was a little lull at 10am and that's when I went.
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
After putting on my clogs and flat cap to brave the driving rain and gales that are normal in these dismal northern parts, I was surprised to see Ilkley Moor festooned with vote Conservative posters. Eh up, I said to my whippet Scargill, as I sipped on a pint of mild that I had brought along for sustenance. When I reached the polling station, which is located at the bottom of a coal mine, I was shocked to see a long line of former miners, mill workers and brassy but warm hearted barmaids queuing up to cast their votes for Boris "Pillarboxes" Johnson. "Eeh by gum," one of them told me, "I do love a bit of that Brexit and the Tories' tough line on public spending. Except pensions, obvs." Hope that quenches your thirst for anecdata. Day job not given up.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
Bedford is not in the North
I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise
I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
I could have picked any number of examples, but this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to this site. Two posters having a conversation and taking account of what the other poster says rather than doing the electronic equivalent of shouting at each other. It’s not always like this, but it happens much more often than on any other forum I’ve been on.
I’m always willing to hold my bass up when wrong as are most here. You get the occasional rude people but in general people here are pleasant and understanding.
Is ‘hold my bass up’ a typo or a phrase I ought to know?
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It could become a very good argument for voting systems changes, though, if the pile-ups are extreme.
Why? If the pile-ups are extreme then those areas with pile-ups get an MP that reflects them. Areas which made other choices get their choice.
Some people don't seem to understand the rest of the country doesn't reflect their own little bubble. FPTP works at ensuring every area is represented, its working as intended in your scenario.
Overall voting numbers are still a facet of legitimacy, though. Look at the furore in the US with Trump and Clinton's voting numbers.
There is no furore besides those who don't accept that the States are different and California doesn't get to override other States choices - and I say that as someone who would have voted Hillary and anyone but Trump. The electoral college there is working as intended just as FPTP is here.
I hope in the States whomever the Democrats choose targets the "flyover" States and doesn't just seek to appeal to coastal Californians etc otherwise we'll be stuck with the Tango coloured turd for another 4 years.
As often, we don't agree on this, and as often I don't suspect I'm going to easily change your mind ;.)
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It does matter though. If Labour gain 5 seats in London how can you say that’s good for the Tories?
Of course if it’s a landslide it makes no difference but these seats being so tight means a lot. Every gain counts.
CHB you're starting to sound desperate.
It’s not desperate. I’ve just upped my position on NOM.
I’m just pointing out that Labour gains in London are not good for the Tories, IF the margins end up being tight. That’s all.
May I ask where you think these gains will come from then? All assuming there will not be a single net loss for Labour in London.
LD gains in the South. Labour gains in Scotland. Small gains in the red wall for the Tories but less than 10.
I made all these predictions last night.
OK can you name the individual seats that Labour are gaining. I'm genuinely intrigued, and I'm guessing a great many others are too.
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
Voted at 10am in York Outer busiest I have ever seen it. Safe conservative seat. Labour did well in 2017, coming a respectable second. I think Lib Dems and Labour are splitting the vote , more than last time. The tactical voting sites suggest to vote Labour because of the student vote.
However most of the students live in York Central, which currently is a safe Labour seat.
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
I think there'll be a high turnout in London and the South East, where Labour's commuter and youth offer will see their vote hold up well.
Less so in the 'red wall'
Anecdata from a morning spent with 4 ex miners, 2 ex nurses and an ex teacher. Old northerners are not voting Labour.
It all depends on switching though. I have been surrounded by working class Tories my entire life. Just because people are nurses or miners, in tu or not, there’s no umbilical cord to labour. I really hate the anecdotal stuff on here. But my anecdote is travelling to football last Saturday, through Bristol east, through filton, Bristol ne and in Bristol west, counting the posters, very little libdem this time. Affluent areas in semi detached suburb was surprised how Many labour posters and the absence of Tory ones. But park up in middle of what was council estate in my youth and Conservative posters every where. It’s a brexit thing, Cummings and Boris have convinced the poorest people in our country brexit frees up a lot of money and makes their country and life much better.
Out of my 7 strong 'focus group', at least 5 of them have switched from Lab to Con, but over a period of 10 years. It seems when you leave the Labour market, you leave Labour. Corbyn incredibly unpopular - I mean viscerally. Johnson seen as a clown.
More anecdata from students in Newcastle Central. Everyone, and I mean everyone, is voting Labour.
Very busy in my ward in Canterbury. Usually low in the morning, but very busy when I went at 9am. Looks like a very large student turnout. I suspect Labour will retain - just - because there are significant local issues. But it will be very, very close. I know of several Labour voters, who are switching to Tories, because of Brexit and Corbyn. It will probably come down to the student vote and how many turnout. Weather is currently poor.
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
Tories work. They don't vote during the day...
Retired Tories do.... Those without a postal at least. (Hell of a lot had already voted in recent door-knocking. Virtually all for the Cons down here. So Labour/LibDems just playing catch up....)
Some people don't seem to understand the rest of the country doesn't reflect their own little bubble. FPTP works at ensuring every area is represented, its working as intended in your scenario.
FSVO "every area". If you assume that constituencies are reasonably homogenous then that's fine. But they're not, particularly in rural areas. Around here, for example, there is a string of fairly liberal small towns that get outweighed every time by the blue-donkey villages and the Worcester-woman large towns. Consequently this sizeable and distinct type of settlement never really gets represented at Westminster, because the MPs never see the need to appeal to their vote.
Larger multi-member constituencies would be the easiest way to fix this.
My polling station in Windsor was empty when I arrived at 11am - two people came in whilst I was there. I subsequently went to the local Wetherspoons which was very busy...
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It could become a very good argument for voting systems changes, though, if the pile-ups are extreme.
Why? If the pile-ups are extreme then those areas with pile-ups get an MP that reflects them. Areas which made other choices get their choice.
Some people don't seem to understand the rest of the country doesn't reflect their own little bubble. FPTP works at ensuring every area is represented, its working as intended in your scenario.
Overall voting numbers are still a facet of legitimacy, though. Look at the furore in the US with Trump and Clinton's voting numbers, for example, although a different case.
It's the waste of votes that's dispiriting. I've voted in Fareham (ERG Tory MP) but I needn't have bothered. My daughter's vote in Wrexham on the other hand...…
I think there'll be a high turnout in London and the South East, where Labour's commuter and youth offer will see their vote hold up well.
Less so in the 'red wall'
Anecdata from a morning spent with 4 ex miners, 2 ex nurses and an ex teacher. Old northerners are not voting Labour.
It all depends on switching though. I have been surrounded by working class Tories my entire life. Just because people are nurses or miners, in tu or not, there’s no umbilical cord to labour. I really hate the anecdotal stuff on here. But my anecdote is travelling to football last Saturday, through Bristol east, through filton, Bristol ne and in Bristol west, counting the posters, very little libdem this time. Affluent areas in semi detached suburb was surprised how Many labour posters and the absence of Tory ones. But park up in middle of what was council estate in my youth and Conservative posters every where. It’s a brexit thing, Cummings and Boris have convinced the poorest people in our country brexit frees up a lot of money and makes their country and life much better.
All that remains to be seen is what happens when it doesn't.
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
After putting on my clogs and flat cap to brave the driving rain and gales that are normal in these dismal northern parts, I was surprised to see Ilkley Moor festooned with vote Conservative posters. Eh up, I said to my whippet Scargill, as I sipped on a pint of mild that I had brought along for sustenance. When I reached the polling station, which is located at the bottom of a coal mine, I was shocked to see a long line of former miners, mill workers and brassy but warm hearted barmaids queuing up to cast their votes for Boris "Pillarboxes" Johnson. "Eeh by gum," one of them told me, "I do love a bit of that Brexit and the Tories' tough line on public spending. Except pensions, obvs." Hope that quenches your thirst for anecdata. Day job not given up.
The thing t'southern softies dunt realise is, the whole of the north is homogeneous, and is exactly as described above*.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
It could become a very good argument for voting systems changes, though, if the pile-ups are extreme.
Why? If the pile-ups are extreme then those areas with pile-ups get an MP that reflects them. Areas which made other choices get their choice.
Some people don't seem to understand the rest of the country doesn't reflect their own little bubble. FPTP works at ensuring every area is represented, its working as intended in your scenario.
Overall voting numbers are still a facet of legitimacy, though. Look at the furore in the US with Trump and Clinton's voting numbers.
There is no furore besides those who don't accept that the States are different and California doesn't get to override other States choices - and I say that as someone who would have voted Hillary and anyone but Trump. The electoral college there is working as intended just as FPTP is here.
I hope in the States whomever the Democrats choose targets the "flyover" States and doesn't just seek to appeal to coastal Californians etc otherwise we'll be stuck with the Tango coloured turd for another 4 years.
As often, we don't agree on this , and as often I don't suspect I'm going to easily change your mind ;.)
Indeed. This isn't party partisan as sometimes the system goes with what I want (hopefully tonight) and sometimes it really doesn't (eg Hillary as you said). But I believe in taking the whole nation into account. Piling up extreme support in one area of the nation and neglecting the rest of it is not progress.
I want the Democrats to win in 2020 (I suspect we agree on that at least!) but I want them to win by winning across the country. Is that unreasonable?
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
Bedford is not in the North
I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise
I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
I could have picked any number of examples, but this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to this site. Two posters having a conversation and taking account of what the other poster says rather than doing the electronic equivalent of shouting at each other. It’s not always like this, but it happens much more often than on any other forum I’ve been on.
I’m always willing to hold my bass up when wrong as are most here. You get the occasional rude people but in general people here are pleasant and understanding.
Is ‘hold my bass up’ a typo or a phrase I ought to know?
Sorry I am on mobile. It should read “hands up”
Thank goodness for that. I like to think that I can understand most of what my pupils say to me and if a phrase like that had got past me I was wondering what else I was missing.
Oh, and I don’t think you need to apologise for any typo so.
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
Tories work. They don't vote during the day...
The weather forecast is rain later so those that can may have tried to vote this morning instead - I know Mrs Eek did and set off for work at 7 rather than 6:45 to do so.
My polling station in Windsor was empty when I arrived at 11am - two people came in whilst I was there. I subsequently went to the local Wetherspoons which was very busy...
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
Tories work. They don't vote during the day...
The polls on employment have the employed neck and neck between Tories and Lab (Tory lead small full time and Labour lead a bit bigger part time). The big gap is in retired which was breaking around 50-15.
This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.
It will show the disconnect from London and the rest of us
It also shows how divided this country is! Brexit and Johnson are part of the problem NOT the solution to this problem.
If the mendacious racist oaf does win, this country faces a difficult and turbulent period ahead. There is no coming together. How can there be?
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
After putting on my clogs and flat cap to brave the driving rain and gales that are normal in these dismal northern parts, I was surprised to see Ilkley Moor festooned with vote Conservative posters. Eh up, I said to my whippet Scargill, as I sipped on a pint of mild that I had brought along for sustenance. When I reached the polling station, which is located at the bottom of a coal mine, I was shocked to see a long line of former miners, mill workers and brassy but warm hearted barmaids queuing up to cast their votes for Boris "Pillarboxes" Johnson. "Eeh by gum," one of them told me, "I do love a bit of that Brexit and the Tories' tough line on public spending. Except pensions, obvs." Hope that quenches your thirst for anecdata. Day job not given up.
As any fule kno, mild is only drunk in half-pints.....
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
Tories work. They don't vote during the day...
Except polling shows Labour leads with people who work these days.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.
I won't be voting until 5ish - I'll try and ascertain whether turnout is steady or has edged up to brisk.
I think Cooper will hold on. Mind you, we've had several leaflets from her over the last fortnight, one each for Tory, BXP, Yorkshire Party and LD.
Loudspeaker cars used to be common in elections, usually speaking much too fast to hear what they were saying. Haven't heard any for decades. Not surprised Brexit party reviving them or that they get planes to tow banners, much easier than real electioneering.
Part of the “back to the 50s” brand positioning surely?
This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.
It will show the disconnect from London and the rest of us
It also shows how divided this country is! Brexit and Johnson are part of the problem NOT the solution to this problem.
If the mendacious racist oaf does win, this country faces a difficult and turbulent period ahead. There is no coming together. How can there be?
Absolutely. But thankfully the opinion polls suggest the mendacious racist oaf's party is ~10% behind
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
Bedford is not in the North
I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise
I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
I could have picked any number of examples, but this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to this site. Two posters having a conversation and taking account of what the other poster says rather than doing the electronic equivalent of shouting at each other. It’s not always like this, but it happens much more often than on any other forum I’ve been on.
I’m always willing to hold my bass up when wrong as are most here. You get the occasional rude people but in general people here are pleasant and understanding.
Is ‘hold my bass up’ a typo or a phrase I ought to know?
Sorry I am on mobile. It should read “hands up”
Thank goodness for that. I like to think that I can understand most of what my pupils say to me and if a phrase like that had got past me I was wondering what else I was missing.
Oh, and I don’t think you need to apologise for any typo so.
Always good to acknowledge mistakes whether big or small.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Vote Labour Mike! Do your bit to keep that second referendum alive! Vote Tory and we're heading for the hardest of hard Brexits next year. Choose wisely!
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
Bedford is not in the North
I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise
I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
I could have picked any number of examples, but this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to this site. Two posters having a conversation and taking account of what the other poster says rather than doing the electronic equivalent of shouting at each other. It’s not always like this, but it happens much more often than on any other forum I’ve been on.
I’m always willing to hold my bass up when wrong as are most here. You get the occasional rude people but in general people here are pleasant and understanding.
Is ‘hold my bass up’ a typo or a phrase I ought to know?
Sorry I am on mobile. It should read “hands up”
Thank goodness for that. I like to think that I can understand most of what my pupils say to me and if a phrase like that had got past me I was wondering what else I was missing.
Oh, and I don’t think you need to apologise for any typo so.
I rather like “hold my bass up”. We should ascribe it a meaning and keep it going.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
Thanks Eek. Makes sense.
No one over 70 should be allowed to vote or stand, as ge is about building into the future not wishing to rebuild the past. If we had a written constitution it would be the carousel amendment. Seriously, if you know you don’t get a vote after seventy, how does that influence your voting before seventy?
This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.
It will show the disconnect from London and the rest of us
It also shows how divided this country is! Brexit and Johnson are part of the problem NOT the solution to this problem.
If the mendacious racist oaf does win, this country faces a difficult and turbulent period ahead. There is no coming together. How can there be?
The only difference between Corbyn and Johnson is that one of them is an accomplished liar and the other one is a terrible liar. But they are both fundamentally dishonest IMO.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Vote Labour Mike! Do your bit to keep that second referendum alive! Vote Tory and we're heading for the hardest of hard Brexits next year. Choose wisely!
Avoid the siren song of the anti-semite.
You'll hate yourself if you give Corbyn your vote.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
You can always vote for your own principles. Even if its a marginal, if you can't support either you can vote for your own principles and then sleep comfortably at night.
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
Tories work. They don't vote during the day...
Except polling shows Labour leads with people who work these days.
Had a look last week and was neck and neck, based on Tory overall lead around 10%.
This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.
It will show the disconnect from London and the rest of us
If the mendacious racist oaf does win, this country faces a difficult and turbulent period ahead. There is no coming together. How can there be?
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
Thanks Eek. Makes sense.
No one over 70 should be allowed to vote or stand, as ge is about building into the future not wishing to rebuild the past. If we had a written constitution it would be the carousel amendment. Seriously, if you know you don’t get a vote after seventy, how does that influence your voting before seventy?
In your 60s, you vote heavily for the party that will enfranchise the septuagenarians?
This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.
It will show the disconnect from London and the rest of us
If the mendacious racist oaf does win, this country faces a difficult and turbulent period ahead. There is no coming together. How can there be?
I live in Hampshire near the border with West Sussex. We went out to do some Christmas shopping before voting. We passed three other polling stations on the way, one with a small queue, the others with brisk flow of people going in and out. Our ballot station had about six people in the queue inside. The only young person I saw near a ballot station was the granddaughter one woman had brought along.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Vote Labour Mike! Do your bit to keep that second referendum alive! Vote Tory and we're heading for the hardest of hard Brexits next year. Choose wisely!
Avoid the siren song of the anti-semite.
You'll hate yourself if you give Corbyn your vote.
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
Bedford is not in the North
I know that - but that isn’t what I meant. We’ve only had anecdotes from Mike but none in the North. So has anyone had any?
Your use of the word "apart" suggests otherwise
I know what I meant but I obviously didn’t write it clearly. My apologies.
I could have picked any number of examples, but this is one of the reasons I keep coming back to this site. Two posters having a conversation and taking account of what the other poster says rather than doing the electronic equivalent of shouting at each other. It’s not always like this, but it happens much more often than on any other forum I’ve been on.
I’m always willing to hold my bass up when wrong as are most here. You get the occasional rude people but in general people here are pleasant and understanding.
Is ‘hold my bass up’ a typo or a phrase I ought to know?
Sorry I am on mobile. It should read “hands up”
Thank goodness for that. I like to think that I can understand most of what my pupils say to me and if a phrase like that had got past me I was wondering what else I was missing.
Oh, and I don’t think you need to apologise for any typo so.
Always good to acknowledge mistakes whether big or small.
If you are typing on a phone with auto correct then I’m not sure it even counts as a mistake. I only mentioned it because I am used to suddenly encountering new slang terms and having to ask what they mean.
And I though it was funny.
I once used a speech to text program in a lesson and ended up writing ‘shit’ instead of ‘shift’ on the board. The class noticed before I did.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
Thanks Eek. Makes sense.
No one over 70 should be allowed to vote or stand, as ge is about building into the future not wishing to rebuild the past. If we had a written constitution it would be the carousel amendment. Seriously, if you know you don’t get a vote after seventy, how does that influence your voting before seventy?
I believe that children are our future Unless we stop them now
Comments
It looks like the bigger punters are showing up. Tens of thousands queued to back Con Maj.
Some people don't seem to understand the rest of the country doesn't reflect their own little bubble. FPTP works at ensuring every area is represented, its working as intended in your scenario.
I’m just pointing out that Labour gains in London are not good for the Tories, IF the margins end up being tight. That’s all.
Christ it was a scary few hours on election night.
Salt
However with regards to this election, seeing a 'massive surge' (that is likely to be nothing out of the ordinary in safe and ultra safe Lab seats like Streatham and Manc Central is totally irrelevant.
South Norfolk
Witham
Mid norfolk
Broadland
Norwich south
I made all these predictions last night.
It is.
I subsequently went to the local Wetherspoons which was very busy...
I hope in the States whomever the Democrats choose targets the "flyover" States and doesn't just seek to appeal to coastal Californians etc otherwise we'll be stuck with the Tango coloured turd for another 4 years.
Does she still have that dark cloud looming over her, or was it just for GE2017?
Corbyn incredibly unpopular - I mean viscerally. Johnson seen as a clown.
More anecdata from students in Newcastle Central. Everyone, and I mean everyone, is voting Labour.
So nothing to learn from my anecdotes then!
More seriously, the time of year is probably also having an impact.
https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/who-leads-in-our-poll-tracker/
“What this country needs is to start getting what matters, right. And what matters most is how we live in our communities.
Instead of talk about ”putting down like unwanted dogs“ those people along our street who need to use foodbanks, and yes a Tory Candidate actually did say this, how the mask has been slipping this campaign,
families and friends around us in our communities don’t need putting down, they need lifting up!
lets guarantee living wages and social security to ensure people don’t need to use foodbanks. And let’s now properly fund the local facilities that make our community: the schools, the homes, the doctors the hospitals, the police station, the home care, the children’s centres, the youth clubs affording vital rite of passage for our youth of today, the specialist units for the those with special need who are indeed special and most cherished ones in our community.”
“There Is no magic wand to instantly unite a divided nation. No quick fix to the problems the Tory’s have allowed to fester in our run down communities throughout this lost decade, to pay for this will require hard work, to put it right will require hard work over time. To climb these mountains will take us one step at a time. But to start with, let’s at least point our great country in the right direction, and set off with the promise: that we leave no one behind. We will steer the country in the right direction. We will leave no one behind.”
If only he had done this in 2016!!!! Too late now to end up in the right place, Jez far too late.
Safe Labour here and full of university staff/students/graduates so I'm not going to speculate as to what's happening outside the cities, but there was a larger queue outside both cabins around an hour ago than there was outside the single cabin for the entire polling day in 2017. There was a little lull at 10am and that's when I went.
Hope that quenches your thirst for anecdata. Day job not given up.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
Classic Tory.
Tories work. They don't vote during the day...
Durham City
Birmingham Yardley x 2
Reading West x 2
Wantage x 3
Totnes x 3
Safe conservative seat.
Labour did well in 2017, coming a respectable second.
I think Lib Dems and Labour are splitting the vote , more than last time.
The tactical voting sites suggest to vote Labour because of the student vote.
However most of the students live in York Central, which currently is a safe Labour seat.
Larger multi-member constituencies would be the easiest way to fix this.
Bristol West
Wells
North East Hampshire
Surrey Heath
if my memory serves me well enough.
I know - I went to the north once.
* Well, Barnsley East is.
I want the Democrats to win in 2020 (I suspect we agree on that at least!) but I want them to win by winning across the country. Is that unreasonable?
Oh, and I don’t think you need to apologise for any typo so.
If the mendacious racist oaf does win, this country faces a difficult and turbulent period ahead. There is no coming together. How can there be?
Santa Claus is Dominic Cummings hyper-targeting some Facebook advertising.
You'll hate yourself if you give Corbyn your vote.
Good luck making your choice whatever it is!
And I though it was funny.
I once used a speech to text program in a lesson and ended up writing ‘shit’ instead of ‘shift’ on the board. The class noticed before I did.
Unless we stop them now