I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Exactly my decision this time around - would vote lib Dem but that's a wasted vote.
Having worked with Boris for me that was never an option but it's a matter of picking the least worst option out of those that can win.
Given it's an even choice - flick a coin, heads Tory - tails Labour.
If you like or dislike the result you will know which way to vote
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Vote Labour Mike! Do your bit to keep that second referendum alive! Vote Tory and we're heading for the hardest of hard Brexits next year. Choose wisely!
To be honest it is the dog that should have barked. if you go with labours approach and you don’t like it, if despite intent to help the many left behind for so long they mess up, you will get a chance to change that government. If the nation goes with Boris and his hard Brexit and you don’t like it, there will be no going back. But Tory remainers and Lib Dem waverers have stuck with Boris and delivered his majority for brexit.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
Thanks Eek. Makes sense.
No one over 70 should be allowed to vote or stand, as ge is about building into the future not wishing to rebuild the past. If we had a written constitution it would be the carousel amendment. Seriously, if you know you don’t get a vote after seventy, how does that influence your voting before seventy?
I believe that children are our future Unless we stop them now
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
All the Tories here will tell you to vote Tory and all the Corbynistas here will tell you to vote Labour, and both sides will say you will have a one way trip to hell if you vote for the other side. As for the Limp Dims - who gives a fuck about them?
At least dodged the bullet of winds coming down from Greenland. The rest of the day until polling ends is from the west or (in SE England) from the south.
Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
Incorrect, he gives poor people very little and rich people lots. He directly connects morality with wealth.
Classic Tory.
You can ask him for whatever you like, but you won’t get it, and if you write him a letter some minion elf will reply without him ever seeing it. So he’s definitely a politician.
Lib Dem is a marker for relative sanity and decency. Politics needs a reconfiguration so look to the future. Vote Labour and your conscience will be troubled.
Durham City Birmingham Yardley x 2 Reading West x 2 Wantage x 3 Totnes x 3
Presumably not all in the same year? I’ve heard of vote early vote often but that’s really pushing the envelope!
Many voters in Durham City would have voted in Oxford or Cambridge, had it not been for those pesky A Level examiners.
It's more likely those pesky interviewers at Oxford / Cambridge rather than A levels unless Durham has really reduced their criteria.
Even then it's scary the number of people walking back to Campus for 9am and back home at 6pm. Durham University is far far bigger than it was even 10 years ago.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
Thanks Eek. Makes sense.
No one over 70 should be allowed to vote or stand, as ge is about building into the future not wishing to rebuild the past. If we had a written constitution it would be the carousel amendment. Seriously, if you know you don’t get a vote after seventy, how does that influence your voting before seventy?
In your 60s, you vote heavily for the party that will enfranchise the septuagenarians?
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Absolutely not!
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
All the Tories here will tell you to vote Tory and all the Corbynistas here will tell you to vote Labour, and both sides will say you will have a one way trip to hell if you vote for the other side. As for the Limp Dims - who gives a fuck about them?
Checks my post - nope I just suggested the coin toss regret solution to make a 50-50 choice.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Just been to the shops and heard a young couple getting supplies and very excited to stay up to watch Jezza win. I didn't have the heart to tell them the polls.
Well, he's pretty certain to win (in Islington North)
Anyone know why the swing against Labour is so much smaller in the West Midlands then nationally? Even the Survatuon regional poll had a small swing there. I would of thought Labour would be doing particularly badly there.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Walk away, do something else, come back and go with your gut instinct.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Absolutely not!
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
I do wonder with the current exodus from California to Texas what impact that will have on Texas. It seems that any move away from Republican there is being driven by 2 separate factions - the former Californians above and nationalisation of Mexican immigrants.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
If someone nominates a proxy vote and the person being proxied dies can the proxy vote still be cast ?
Anyone know why the swing against Labour is so much smaller in the West Midlands then nationally? Even the Survatuon regional poll had a small swing there. I would of thought Labour would be doing particularly badly there.
Did they do particularly badly last time such that part of it is baked in?
My postal vote is till unopened. I just do not know what to do. I was going to vote Labour in an attempt to stop the Tories. BUT I do not think I can. Lib Dems and Green is a complete waste of time in this seat. I am beginning to think it will still be unopened at 22.01. If so would be the first GE I have never voted in, going back to 1964.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Vote Labour Mike! Do your bit to keep that second referendum alive! Vote Tory and we're heading for the hardest of hard Brexits next year. Choose wisely!
Avoid the siren song of the anti-semite.
You'll hate yourself if you give Corbyn your vote.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
If someone nominates a proxy vote and the person being proxied dies can the proxy vote still be cast ?
if they voted would anyone ever know, I doubt it.
It's possibly fraud but is it any different from a postal vote sent before the person died (and supposedly there are 3,000 of those or roughly 5 in every constituency).
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Absolutely not!
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Your vote is worth around 18p in short money. Philip knows the exact amount. Support your favourite party.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Absolutely not!
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
I do wonder with the current exodus from California to Texas what impact that will have on Texas. It seems that any move away from Republican there is being driven by 2 separate factions - the former Californians above and nationalisation of Mexican immigrants.
Texas turning blue would be an electoral earthquake. And fair game if it happens, why shouldn't the Democrats target Texas? The GOP have no divine right to it.
Voted at 10am in York Outer busiest I have ever seen it. Safe conservative seat. Labour did well in 2017, coming a respectable second. I think Lib Dems and Labour are splitting the vote , more than last time. The tactical voting sites suggest to vote Labour because of the student vote.
However most of the students live in York Central, which currently is a safe Labour seat.
Isn't York central the only constituency completely surrounded by another? I wonder how it would split if a straight North/South or East/West divide. Only bit of red in a sea of blue up here, of course (I was in York Central in 2015).
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
Tories work. They don't vote during the day...
The weather forecast is rain later so those that can may have tried to vote this morning instead - I know Mrs Eek did and set off for work at 7 rather than 6:45 to do so.
It’s seriously bad now. The worst of the weather runs from Birmingham to Southampton and is steadily moving east.
Whoever it was here that forecast bad storms was more accurate than the BBC. Although there isn’t any snow.
Anyone know why the swing against Labour is so much smaller in the West Midlands then nationally? Even the Survatuon regional poll had a small swing there. I would of thought Labour would be doing particularly badly there.
The West Midlands has some very very safe BME constituencies in Birmingham for Labour where their vote will hold up well, Hodge Hill and the like.
Lib Dem is a marker for relative sanity and decency. Politics needs a reconfiguration so look to the future. Vote Labour and your conscience will be troubled.
This is quite true. I have the option of Alun Cairns who I get on OK with on a personal level, but who's sycophancy is nauseating, and is deeply embroiled in the Ross England scandal. Ms. Loveluck- Edwards seems pleasant enough. I have no idea whether she is on the sensible side of the party or the Corbyn bananas side. I am not entirely sure I have her name right. I detest Corbyn and despise Johnson.
Which way to vote? Anything that has the potential to reduce Boris' majority. Boris and Cairns will be OK in the Vale of Glamorgan this time... but next time?
Anyone know why the swing against Labour is so much smaller in the West Midlands then nationally? Even the Survatuon regional poll had a small swing there. I would of thought Labour would be doing particularly badly there.
Hard to tell, but the Birmingham seats are extremely safe and only 1 or 2 of them are in play. Labour is probably staying steady there. Same thing in Coventry to an extent.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
If someone nominates a proxy vote and the person being proxied dies can the proxy vote still be cast ?
if they voted would anyone ever know, I doubt it.
It's possibly fraud but is it any different from a postal vote sent before the person died (and supposedly there are 3,000 of those or roughly 5 in every constituency).
I presume we operate on the theory that unless there’s a really systemic attempt by one party (there isn’t) then all this stuff evens out.
Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
Incorrect, he gives poor people very little and rich people lots. He directly connects morality with wealth.
Classic Tory.
He's a self-employed manager with his own manufacturing company who employs non-unionised workers with no rights and whose delivery system requires animal labour far beyond any regulation. He adopts bizarre clothing because he can't be fired and he got his job without any interview or desert. He gives presents to his favourites and punishes those he dislikes according to his whim. He lives in an isolated mansion that others cannot conceivably afford. Yes, he is most certainly a classic Tory.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Log on to betfair, see which party is longer odds in the seat, lump on and vote for them.
If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
My postal vote is till unopened. I just do not know what to do. I was going to vote Labour in an attempt to stop the Tories. BUT I do not think I can. Lib Dems and Green is a complete waste of time in this seat. I am beginning to think it will still be unopened at 22.01. If so would be the first GE I have never voted in, going back to 1964.
No indies? Would continue your vote-casting record.
On a purely philosophical note, Corbyn and Momentum have been successful in convincing a lot of young people that governments are entirely to blame for things like poverty and homelessness.
My brother lived on the streets for a few weeks and it was ENTIRELY his fault. He had a great upbringing, very talented sportsman, university educated, a teacher for two decades, but became an alcoholic. My mother and the authorities couldn't have done more to help him, but helping a pisshead is nigh on impossible.
In November it was his anniversary of a year sober. So he's back on track. But he's unable to work yet and has very generous monthly PIP payments.
Every young person has access to a (relatively) first class education in this country. Many choose to spoil the privilege. I have seen many young kids in rugby who couldn't give a monkey's about learning and end up at 25 gutted that they'd wasted it. That is not the government's fault.
Politicians have become very poor at arguing that people should first and foremost help themselves.
If they did there would be plenty more money for those who desperately need it and are more deserving of it.
If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Absolutely not!
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
I believe Congress would have to authorise it. There's proposals for it to happen (divided into 3 IIRC) but its unlikely, there's not much support for it to occur. Be like suggesting England is divided - few people genuinely want something like that even if it supports their politics.
My postal vote is till unopened. I just do not know what to do. I was going to vote Labour in an attempt to stop the Tories. BUT I do not think I can. Lib Dems and Green is a complete waste of time in this seat. I am beginning to think it will still be unopened at 22.01. If so would be the first GE I have never voted in, going back to 1964.
Vote LD then! Symbolic contribution to sanity (ok relative sanity as they do have some barmy policies).
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
Every vote does count the same.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
Absolutely not!
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
I do wonder with the current exodus from California to Texas what impact that will have on Texas. It seems that any move away from Republican there is being driven by 2 separate factions - the former Californians above and nationalisation of Mexican immigrants.
Texas turning blue would be an electoral earthquake. And fair game if it happens, why shouldn't the Democrats target Texas? The GOP have no divine right to it.
They'd need to overturn a 9% majority there, which would be very tough unless the result is a landslide. To win they only need to overcome a 1% or less majority in 3 states with similar demographics (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), which is obviously much easier.
Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
Incorrect, he gives poor people very little and rich people lots. He directly connects morality with wealth.
Classic Tory.
He's a self-employed manager with his own manufacturing company who employs non-unionised workers with no rights and whose delivery system requires animal labour far beyond any regulation. He adopts bizarre clothing because he can't be fired and he got his job without any interview or desert. He gives presents to his favourites and punishes those he dislikes according to his whim. He lives in an isolated mansion that others cannot conceivably afford. Yes, he is most certainly a classic Tory.
Hes a creepy fat guy who gets off on watching you sleep Hes Harvey Weinstein
If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.
It will show the disconnect from London and the rest of us
If the mendacious racist oaf does win, this country faces a difficult and turbulent period ahead. There is no coming together. How can there be?
I thought you liked Corbyn?
Corbyn is a dim-witted moron. Have always said so. He's not as nasty as Johnson but he's not suitable to be PM. If the Labour party was led by one murali_s, it would be sweeping to power!
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.
If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
I tend to agree but right now I'm not sure if its head or heart saying it.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
So apart from Mike in Bedford do we have any Northern anecdotes yet
After putting on my clogs and flat cap to brave the driving rain and gales that are normal in these dismal northern parts, I was surprised to see Ilkley Moor festooned with vote Conservative posters. Eh up, I said to my whippet Scargill, as I sipped on a pint of mild that I had brought along for sustenance. When I reached the polling station, which is located at the bottom of a coal mine, I was shocked to see a long line of former miners, mill workers and brassy but warm hearted barmaids queuing up to cast their votes for Boris "Pillarboxes" Johnson. "Eeh by gum," one of them told me, "I do love a bit of that Brexit and the Tories' tough line on public spending. Except pensions, obvs." Hope that quenches your thirst for anecdata. Day job not given up.
As any fule kno, mild is only drunk in half-pints.....
Sounds more like a sterotype rather than an anecdote...ecky thump!
Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
Incorrect, he gives poor people very little and rich people lots. He directly connects morality with wealth.
Classic Tory.
He's a self-employed manager with his own manufacturing company who employs non-unionised workers with no rights and whose delivery system requires animal labour far beyond any regulation. He adopts bizarre clothing because he can't be fired and he got his job without any interview or desert. He gives presents to his favourites and punishes those he dislikes according to his whim. He lives in an isolated mansion that others cannot conceivably afford. Yes, he is most certainly a classic Tory.
Hes a creepy fat guy who gets off on watching you sleep Hes Harvey Weinstein
So the white stuff coming down the chimney with him isn't snow?
We’ve heard all about big turnout in younger people for years . There was conflicting evidence about this in 2017 . YouGov said it happened but the BES didn’t really support that .
In terms of London , effectively it’s a region which electorally is detached from the rest of the UK . There really are several different elections happening today .
Scotland , the Midlands and the North and London .
I expect Labour to get trounced in the south , do better than expected in Wales , trounced in Scotland , do well in London .
The uncertainty is what happens in the Midlands and the North.
On a purely philosophical note, Corbyn and Momentum have been successful in convincing a lot of young people that governments are entirely to blame for things like poverty and homelessness.
My brother lived on the streets for a few weeks and it was ENTIRELY his fault. He had a great upbringing, very talented sportsman, university educated, a teacher for two decades, but became an alcoholic. My mother and the authorities couldn't have done more to help him, but helping a pisshead is nigh on impossible.
In November it was his anniversary of a year sober. So he's back on track. But he's unable to work yet and has very generous monthly PIP payments.
Every young person has access to a (relatively) first class education in this country. Many choose to spoil the privilege. I have seen many young kids in rugby who couldn't give a monkey's about learning and end up at 25 gutted that they'd wasted it. That is not the government's fault.
Politicians have become very poor at arguing that people should first and foremost help themselves.
If they did there would be plenty more money for those who desperately need it and are more deserving of it.
I'm sorry to hear about your brother and I think you're right that some people will shun all of the help available and inevitably they will end up in positions such as your brother, but I imagine the vast majority out there have been forced out by factors that aren't their fault.
The rise in rough sleeping figures that we've seen would imply that a lot more people are making some pretty bad decisions if we use your rationale and I can't see how that's the case.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for Jezza
This election is going to be like Trump vs Clinton 2016 isn't it. People in the cities unable to process what's happening in other parts of their own country, that they never visit.
It will show the disconnect from London and the rest of us
If the mendacious racist oaf does win, this country faces a difficult and turbulent period ahead. There is no coming together. How can there be?
I thought you liked Corbyn?
Corbyn is a dim-witted moron. Have always said so. He's not as nasty as Johnson but he's not suitable to be PM. If the Labour party was led by one murali_s, it would be sweeping to power!
And the Tory Party is sweeping to power despite being led by one HYUFD!
Just voted (turnout seemed "brisk" ) - And quite exciting as there's a lady outside the polling station logging who everyone has voted for so for the first time ever I'm part of the exit poll.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
If you think about it you don't want to impose criteria as that criteria could be continually extended upon and / or abused.
An age based criteria attached to a beating heart is about as far as you can get. Anything else risks opening up abuses and arguments.
If someone nominates a proxy vote and the person being proxied dies can the proxy vote still be cast ?
if they voted would anyone ever know, I doubt it.
It's possibly fraud but is it any different from a postal vote sent before the person died (and supposedly there are 3,000 of those or roughly 5 in every constituency).
You don’t have to be alive to have your vote counted, but you do to have it cast. Counting the PVs of people who may have died is explicitly OK. I don’t know what the situation is for a proxy who knows their voter to be dead.
If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for Jezza
Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.
I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
Just voted (turnout seemed "brisk" ) - And quite exciting as there's a lady outside the polling station logging who everyone has voted for so for the first time ever I'm part of the exit poll.
On a purely philosophical note, Corbyn and Momentum have been successful in convincing a lot of young people that governments are entirely to blame for things like poverty and homelessness.
My brother lived on the streets for a few weeks and it was ENTIRELY his fault. He had a great upbringing, very talented sportsman, university educated, a teacher for two decades, but became an alcoholic. My mother and the authorities couldn't have done more to help him, but helping a pisshead is nigh on impossible.
In November it was his anniversary of a year sober. So he's back on track. But he's unable to work yet and has very generous monthly PIP payments.
Every young person has access to a (relatively) first class education in this country. Many choose to spoil the privilege. I have seen many young kids in rugby who couldn't give a monkey's about learning and end up at 25 gutted that they'd wasted it. That is not the government's fault.
Politicians have become very poor at arguing that people should first and foremost help themselves.
If they did there would be plenty more money for those who desperately need it and are more deserving of it.
There are two parts, what causes people to become homeless, and then what support is available to quickly get homeless people back into mainstream society.
The first has many reasons, often involving addictions, but the second is more within societies control. If it was solely about individuals the proportion of homeless each year would be fairly static with some random noise. It isnt like that, and homelessness goes up and down with local funding.
Voters arriving by car at the polling station below my office. Mainly oldies. It is a filthy day. My office is in Sandfields-grad, but expecting a big leaver turnout. Could Kinnock have a Portillo moment?
If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for Jezza
Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.
It's anecdotage. But I remember 2015 where Labour was feeling very happy with strong turnout in red bits of Stockton South. Until teatime. When the Tory areas were queuing round the block at their polling stations.
Tories work. They don't vote during the day...
The weather forecast is rain later so those that can may have tried to vote this morning instead - I know Mrs Eek did and set off for work at 7 rather than 6:45 to do so.
It’s seriously bad now. The worst of the weather runs from Birmingham to Southampton and is steadily moving east.
Whoever it was here that forecast bad storms was more accurate than the BBC. Although there isn’t any snow.
We were supposed to get rain at 11-12. It is still showing no sign of raining here.
I fear that members of "the Remain community" (what the feck???) will be voiding themselves at 10 pm.
Brexit won't happen for years, maybe a decade. That's plenty of time for a re-alignment of politics - maybe Labour should pivot to be a re-join party as one the decisions that needs to be made. The battle will be lost, but the war goes on....
Comments
Having worked with Boris for me that was never an option but it's a matter of picking the least worst option out of those that can win.
Given it's an even choice - flick a coin, heads Tory - tails Labour.
If you like or dislike the result you will know which way to vote
But Tory remainers and Lib Dem waverers have stuck with Boris and delivered his majority for brexit.
https://www.windy.com/?51.441,-0.142,5
You can ask him for whatever you like, but you won’t get it, and if you write him a letter some minion elf will reply without him ever seeing it. So he’s definitely a politician.
Even then it's scary the number of people walking back to Campus for 9am and back home at 6pm. Durham University is far far bigger than it was even 10 years ago.
Carousel amendment doesn’t work then.
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
It’s seriously bad now. The worst of the weather runs from Birmingham to Southampton and is steadily moving east.
Whoever it was here that forecast bad storms was more accurate than the BBC. Although there isn’t any snow.
All shaping up for a monstering tonight
Which way to vote? Anything that has the potential to reduce Boris' majority. Boris and Cairns will be OK in the Vale of Glamorgan this time... but next time?
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1205101437899943937?s=20
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1205104858845593601?s=20
Alternatively.... "older people who always vote will today knock down Labour's firewall of supposedly "safe" seats...."
My brother lived on the streets for a few weeks and it was ENTIRELY his fault. He had a great upbringing, very talented sportsman, university educated, a teacher for two decades, but became an alcoholic. My mother and the authorities couldn't have done more to help him, but helping a pisshead is nigh on impossible.
In November it was his anniversary of a year sober. So he's back on track. But he's unable to work yet and has very generous monthly PIP payments.
Every young person has access to a (relatively) first class education in this country. Many choose to spoil the privilege. I have seen many young kids in rugby who couldn't give a monkey's about learning and end up at 25 gutted that they'd wasted it. That is not the government's fault.
Politicians have become very poor at arguing that people should first and foremost help themselves.
If they did there would be plenty more money for those who desperately need it and are more deserving of it.
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
Hes Harvey Weinstein
Wont do a @bbckaurak but........
DYOR
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
Eeeeeurrrgh.....
In terms of London , effectively it’s a region which electorally is detached from the rest of the UK . There really are several different elections happening today .
Scotland , the Midlands and the North and London .
I expect Labour to get trounced in the south , do better than expected in Wales , trounced in Scotland , do well in London .
The uncertainty is what happens in the Midlands and the North.
The rise in rough sleeping figures that we've seen would imply that a lot more people are making some pretty bad decisions if we use your rationale and I can't see how that's the case.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
It is smart though, because although people don't like to admit it, it is one of the world most visited websites.
The first has many reasons, often involving addictions, but the second is more within societies control. If it was solely about individuals the proportion of homeless each year would be fairly static with some random noise. It isnt like that, and homelessness goes up and down with local funding.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784535/Russias-aircraft-carrier-catches-fire.html
Appears to be a major fire.