Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.
RIP Corbynism.
Thank you and goodnight Swinson.
Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.
If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -
1) Social insurance for all. 2) Social justice and equality. 3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath 4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation. 5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
I think 3 & 5 are where we should go. You get political parties these days talking about being radical but those, those are radical.
Comedy aside - that *was* the program. Just look at who was in that cabinet. And weep for all that is lost.
I don't like this outcome as i think it will be bad for me personally, possibly very bad. But I need to point out the following:
1) When the PBTories were panicking I went out of my way to reassure them. 2) I had two bets on Con Maj and have now won £100 which I will pick up tomorrow or Saturday.
Well, worth it if Labour returns to sanity. But I'll believe Corbyn's going when he's gone. And I'm not getting carried away until we get some results in, accurate as the exit poll usually is.
Jesus for better or worse British politics has enjoyed giving us shock after shock. At least I was expecting a tory majority so the shock is less devastating than 2015.
Let's hope Boris governs as a one nation tory, with these numbers he won't need to be kowtowing to ERG types.
What will Labour do now? Will they swing to the centre or double down?
On these numbers the tories could be looking at a win in 2024 as well.
Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.
RIP Corbynism.
Thank you and goodnight Swinson.
Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.
If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -
1) Social insurance for all. 2) Social justice and equality. 3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath 4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation. 5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
We want 8 and we won’t wait. But what will we do with all those fleet carriers?
So. Let's see how if at all enlightened a PM Boris turns out to be. If Lab tacks back to the centre on a very close EU relationship ticket 2024 could be interesting.
If the exit poll is foolproof, England and Wales will be leaving the EU on a Brexit somewhere between hard and soft in the near future.
Scotland will have independence, and a United Ireland would follow.
The Tories' would have a couple of years at best to manage expectations before a probable Labour victory under a centre-left figure like Starmer.
If there's ever any precedent for exit polls to be catastrophically wrong, and in the unlikely event of that applying here, we would obviously be back to square one.
A large Tory majority does look very likely with a poll like that, though- well done rcs, if it's right - and even if it's wrong, that might probably mean a smaller but substantial majority even more weighted to a harder form of Brexit.
Boris with a comfortable majority of over 80 will be the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher, from impotent a few weeks ago to dominating the British political scene and he will of course deliver Brexit and pass his Deal and block indyref2 as promised, certainly until Holyrood 2021.
Labour now after the gains of 2017 falling to an even weaker position than Foot, a hapless opposition now
This is one point that really should cause every Labour member angst. After nine years, including two years of utter chaos, they are less popular than at any time since 1945 AGAINST A PARTY LED BY A MAN UNFIT FOR PUBLIC OFFICE.
That’s absolutely shocking.
Macdonnell agrees it is a catastrophe. No shit.
But not Jezza’s fault. The denial is still strong, so there’s no certainty of any change of direction, even after they’ve been defenestrated.
It occurs to me that this is the first election since I think 1865 an incumbent government has lost a majority and regained it.
It also occurs to me this is the first time since 1983 that the exit poll has predicted a Tory majority. In 1987, 1992 and 2015 it predicted a hung parliament.
I voted Conservative here in Huddersfield. I got out of that polling station and walked away at pace.
In a constituency with a 27% Labour majority, with a 93% vote between Lab and Con, I asked my normal question on what needs to happen here to advance the cause of a Social Democratic party of power. And it was to make the centrist MP nervous for his majority, and to make decisions on that basis, to break the logjam of a Corbyn too strong to cede the left and too weak to win. The bed blocker to the sort of politics I want. Blowing that up vs getting the LDs to, woo hoo, 10% - there was no contest in the end. There will be another day to build a centre party to get it right.
I will walk away and wash my hands of it - I'm certain I haven't voted in a Conservative and contributed at all to Johnson's majority. Plausible deniability of this sort was essential to what I did.
The ideal was for LDs to make some advance, it's the only unfulgilled wish on these numbers - let's hope for 20 odd still and some downtick for the true majority. The right parliament for sense to assert after we walk out that EU front door, hear the click behind us, and realise that we're looking at kipping on Donald's put-u-up.
Only blowing the doors off was exactly my thought.
At least the deal goes through and we get a transition period.
Small reasons for positivity:
1. Farage is history. 2. Corbyn likewise. 3. No Deal off the table (for the time being). 4. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan. 5. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.
46% is the biggest Conservative vote share since 1970.
In the end, I think a lot of people were petrified by Corbyn.
I think it's really as simple as that.
Corbyn has destroyed the Labour Party. So did all those idiot leftists that stayed loyal to a anti-Semitic, terrorist-supporting useful idiot for the Russians.
46% is the biggest Conservative vote share since 1970.
In the end, I think a lot of people were petrified by Corbyn.
I think it's really as simple as that.
Corbyn has destroyed the Labour Party. So did all those idiot leftists that stayed loyal to a anti-Semitic, terrorist-supporting useful idiot for the Russians.
Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.
RIP Corbynism.
Thank you and goodnight Swinson.
Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.
If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -
1) Social insurance for all. 2) Social justice and equality. 3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath 4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation. 5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
We want 8 and we won’t wait. But what will we do with all those fleet carriers?
A fellow historian. Makes you wonder if the new QE class will serve as long and as well as the ones that Churchill laid down. It must have been strange to watch them go to the the breakers, for him, in 1948.
BBC Scotland are struggling to cope with the Exit Poll. They are totally incredulous. Including the SNP!
Again - 1983 level landslide for the English Tories, 2015 level landslide for the Scots Nats. Bye bye UK?
Looking at the first result to declare, if it is Blyth Valley then the latest iteration of the YouGov MRP suggests the Con Lab vote share gap should halve, which would leave Labour with a majority of about 4,000.
If the Labour majority is substantially lower than that, then it may provide the first solid indication that the Exit Poll is somewhere close to correct.
I'm frightened. With the Boris monster unfettered and rampant - and let alone with those people around him - where will this all lead? The Britain we knew has gone for ever, and I see only mist and darkness ahead.
Comments
In the end, I think a lot of people were petrified by Corbyn.
If you look at the charts, they did MRP at height of photo-gate, which resulted in a massive depression of majority. Days before it was much bigger.
I was going to stuff more on it but I am wary to go against the Exit Poll.
How safe are Podcock, Long Bailey and Rayner?
Though after a thrashing hard to see how Corbyn gets to name his successor.
The Conservatives are indeed getting around 75% of the Leave vote.
The first one had topline figures of Con 43%, Lab 32%. The exit poll apparently has Con 46%, Lab 32%.
This was the first MRP data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
1) When the PBTories were panicking I went out of my way to reassure them.
2) I had two bets on Con Maj and have now won £100 which I will pick up tomorrow or Saturday.
I can't think of anyone?
I think Cooper could well be out, on these figures.
Let's hope Boris governs as a one nation tory, with these numbers he won't need to be kowtowing to ERG types.
What will Labour do now? Will they swing to the centre or double down?
On these numbers the tories could be looking at a win in 2024 as well.
But for the moment, hahahaha.
I really shouldn't have smashed them in 2017.
Scotland will have independence, and a United Ireland would follow.
The Tories' would have a couple of years at best to manage expectations before a probable Labour victory under a centre-left figure like Starmer.
If there's ever any precedent for exit polls to be catastrophically wrong, and in the unlikely event of that applying here, we would obviously be back to square one.
A large Tory majority does look very likely with a poll like that, though- well done rcs, if it's right - and even if it's wrong, that might probably mean a smaller but substantial majority even more weighted to a harder form of Brexit.
I've been around here a while and I'm not going anywhere. However, I have a long-haul flight in a few hours time so I need to catch a little kip.
I shall be back!
Already 2024 is looking bloody hard work for Labour.
This is not good,
But it’s still better than Corbyn as PM.
In a constituency with a 27% Labour majority, with a 93% vote between Lab and Con, I asked my normal question on what needs to happen here to advance the cause of a Social Democratic party of power. And it was to make the centrist MP nervous for his majority, and to make decisions on that basis, to break the logjam of a Corbyn too strong to cede the left and too weak to win. The bed blocker to the sort of politics I want. Blowing that up vs getting the LDs to, woo hoo, 10% - there was no contest in the end. There will be another day to build a centre party to get it right.
I will walk away and wash my hands of it - I'm certain I haven't voted in a Conservative and contributed at all to Johnson's majority. Plausible deniability of this sort was essential to what I did.
The ideal was for LDs to make some advance, it's the only unfulgilled wish on these numbers - let's hope for 20 odd still and some downtick for the true majority. The right parliament for sense to assert after we walk out that EU front door, hear the click behind us, and realise that we're looking at kipping on Donald's put-u-up.
Only blowing the doors off was exactly my thought.
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1205252911355367425
EDIT: probably 11.30?
1. Farage is history.
2. Corbyn likewise.
3. No Deal off the table (for the time being).
4. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan.
5. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.
Cheerio Licence Fee, Channel 4.....
Hopefully Corbyn resigns tomorrow morning.
Act fast.
I hope so.
Which side that is, I don’t know (and I mean that).
Looking at the first result to declare, if it is Blyth Valley then the latest iteration of the YouGov MRP suggests the Con Lab vote share gap should halve, which would leave Labour with a majority of about 4,000.
If the Labour majority is substantially lower than that, then it may provide the first solid indication that the Exit Poll is somewhere close to correct.