Ruth has a face like a slapped haggis on ITV. Alan Johnson - articulate but destroyed. Little Jo Johnson: probably looking to re-establish himself in the New Era.
ITV went to EU correspondence, saying the EU thought that the UK would come to their senses and vote to block Brexit. They don't understand the British people very well.
Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.
RIP Corbynism.
Thank you and goodnight Swinson.
Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.
If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -
1) Social insurance for all. 2) Social justice and equality. 3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath 4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation. 5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
We want 8 and we won’t wait. But what will we do with all those fleet carriers?
A fellow historian. Makes you wonder if the new QE class will serve as long and as well as the ones that Churchill laid down. It must have been strange to watch them go to the the breakers, for him, in 1948.
The history of HMS Vanguard is telling.
A job as a professional historian btw. Long in the past though.
I did predict a Tory majority but slightly undercooked the numbers!
Corbyn has been a disaster - an utter disaster!! Corbyn, McDonnell and McCluskey need to go as soon as possible!
I am sad, very sad. We will now Brexit and quite likely leave the EU via a hard Brexit. Corbyn has been an accomplice to that. Shame on him!
Progressive politics as well as the Union is in tatters.
Scotland to go indy in 2021/22 for sure.
Commiserations Murali. But the left can be back sooner than you fear. Boris is not winning because the country as a whole has a huge appetite for right-of-centre politics, but because so many found the alternative unpalatable.
Bearing in mind that the last 2 exit polls have underestimated the Tory majority by a dozen or so seats, the 15 on BFEx for the 380-389 band looks good value. I have topped up.
He wargamed first an agreement with the Brexit Party, then having them for breakfast, while Jo and Jeremy seemed to have deludedly thought they didn't need each other.
ITV went to EU correspondence, saying the EU thought that the UK would come to their senses and vote to block Brexit. They don't understand the British people very well.
More accurately, the British people don’t understand the EU very well
ITV went to EU correspondence, saying the EU thought that the UK would come to their senses and vote to block Brexit. They don't understand the British people very well.
10.01 was the moment after nearly four years it will have sunk in with the EU we are leaving. Slow learners.
So, the LDs are forecast to lose four in Scotland. That means they're only expected to lose one of their three English Leave seats: Carshalton, North Norfolk and Eastbourne.
Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
Remember that the exit poll is a lot cruder than the MRP. It may be good at forecasting the overall national position but isn’t necessarily going to be able to pick and choose between individual third party gains and losses
If the LDs go right back to 1 in Scotland then it doesn't necessarily imply their holding Leave seats in England. They could lose the lot and make up with gains elsewhere. St Albans, Cheltenham, Richmond Park and Sheffield Hallam all look likely targets. Other possibilities include WImbledon and Lewes.
I believe that the BBC is planning to stick individual projections a la the MRP up on their website at some point this evening? Then we'd be able to see where they think the Lib Dems are going to go forwards and backwards tonight.
Totally true... if Corbyn had stuck to his lifelong leave beliefs in 2016 he would have been the brexit prime minister. The urban graduate Labour elite ignored the Labour leave areas in the belief they had nowhere else to go.
ITV went to EU correspondence, saying the EU thought that the UK would come to their senses and vote to block Brexit. They don't understand the British people very well.
More accurately, the British people don’t understand the EU very well
More accurately still, the EU probably doesn’t fully appreciate how our voting system can translate a minority vote into majority power.
If Robert Smithson is around, well done. Also while I was terrifying myself because JCIPM seemed inevitable, it was good to have a sane and detached voice from outside pointing out the realities to have some hope to hang on to.
So BJIPM. I can't say I'm looking forward to the prospect with untrammelled joy, but I'm much happier with this result than Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. Now please can we have a left-of-centre party that people can vote for?
There needs to be a competent opposition. In Labour's hands, if not .....
If the LDs go right back to 1 in Scotland then it doesn't necessarily imply their holding Leave seats in England. They could lose the lot and make up with gains elsewhere. St Albans, Cheltenham, Richmond Park and Sheffield Hallam all look likely targets. Other possibilities include WImbledon and Lewes.
So, the LDs are forecast to lose four in Scotland. That means they're only expected to lose one of their three English Leave seats: Carshalton, North Norfolk and Eastbourne.
Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
Remember that the exit poll is a lot cruder than the MRP. It may be good at forecasting the overall national position but isn’t necessarily going to be able to pick and choose between individual third party gains and losses
If the LDs go right back to 1 in Scotland then it doesn't necessarily imply their holding Leave seats in England. They could lose the lot and make up with gains elsewhere. St Albans, Cheltenham, Richmond Park and Sheffield Hallam all look likely targets. Other possibilities include WImbledon and Lewes.
I believe that the BBC is planning to stick individual projections a la the MRP up on their website at some point this evening? Then we'd be able to see where they think the Lib Dems are going to go forwards and backwards tonight.
But whereas the MRP does have both sample data and demographic modelling for every single seat, the BBC is reliant on a relatively small sample of polling stations in a minority of seats, and extrapolation. That shouldn’t be as accurate at mapping the geography as the MRP.
So, the LDs are forecast to lose four in Scotland. That means they're only expected to lose one of their three English Leave seats: Carshalton, North Norfolk and Eastbourne.
Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
Remember that the exit poll is a lot cruder than the MRP. It may be good at forecasting the overall national position but isn’t necessarily going to be able to pick and choose between individual third party gains and losses
If the LDs go right back to 1 in Scotland then it doesn't necessarily imply their holding Leave seats in England. They could lose the lot and make up with gains elsewhere. St Albans, Cheltenham, Richmond Park and Sheffield Hallam all look likely targets. Other possibilities include WImbledon and Lewes.
I believe that the BBC is planning to stick individual projections a la the MRP up on their website at some point this evening? Then we'd be able to see where they think the Lib Dems are going to go forwards and backwards tonight.
They forecast five LD losses, of which four are in Scotland. Which is odd, because I'd have reckoned the LD chance of winning O&S was much greater than Eastbourne.
If the LDs go right back to 1 in Scotland then it doesn't necessarily imply their holding Leave seats in England. They could lose the lot and make up with gains elsewhere. St Albans, Cheltenham, Richmond Park and Sheffield Hallam all look likely targets. Other possibilities include WImbledon and Lewes.
Fair play to Malc if the exit poll is close to the numbers, I think he was the only indy supporter on here that was bullish about the SNP's chances.
Yepp.
Credit where credit is due.
(I said 41. Doh!)
So did I. It has really spoiled a good result for me. No point pretending otherwise.
Your honesty does you credit.
I’ve experienced crushing electoral defeats before, and it is always best to acknowledge the sadness and loss and just roll up your sleeves and get back to work.
ITV went to EU correspondence, saying the EU thought that the UK would come to their senses and vote to block Brexit. They don't understand the British people very well.
More accurately, the British people don’t understand the EU very well
More accurately still, the EU probably doesn’t fully appreciate how our voting system can translate a minority vote into majority power.
In fairness, it is more likely that British European correspondents do not understand the EU, e.g., Boris Johnson.
labour in Gower are saying that they are getting more support in the posher areas, and losing support in their more traditional working-class areas. Losing support because of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn.
Comments
Fair play to rcs100. Impressive
A job as a professional historian btw. Long in the past though.
Lab 43%
Con 37%
BRX 11%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
That was based on national figures of Con 43%, Lab 32%.
Greedy, mendacious, double-dealing, indecisive and counterproductive. But clever? No.
Old people have ruined the lives of young people.
We need a press that is independent not totally corrupt and bent to pander to one party.
It’s done. The country is in a terrible terrible place.
I said there shouldn't be a 2nd EU referendum
I say there shouldn't be a 2nd indy referendum
They are votes for a generation.
It's entirely consistent,
I’m not even sure such an utter disaster is enough to kill it.
I believe that the BBC is planning to stick individual projections a la the MRP up on their website at some point this evening? Then we'd be able to see where they think the Lib Dems are going to go forwards and backwards tonight.
Others: 22
Northern Ireland is 18
Speaker is another
That woman in East Devon is one...
Who are the other two? Could it be Dominic Grieve? Or another TIGGERorwhatevertheyrenowcalled? Or who???
It's Plaid Cymru.
Wanting both referendum results to stand seems entirely consistent.
Wanting it to be a once in a generation decision was also SNP policy, until the Scots had the temerity to vote against the SNP's preference.
What a night, eh?
That was 48% Conservative in 2017.
Blyth Valley requires a 9.4% swing for the Tories to win.
I’ve experienced crushing electoral defeats before, and it is always best to acknowledge the sadness and loss and just roll up your sleeves and get back to work.
Losing support because of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50424263
Too close to forecast winning party
56% chance of Conservative gain, 44% chance of Labour hold"
Houghton is projected as a Labour hold.
So we will see if the early result conform wih these.
Swinson 1.62, SNP 2.2