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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson gets his wish. The irony is that Jo Swinson made

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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Blyth Valley recount shows Exit poll bang on
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    I agree - it must be pants. Hope so.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Fenster said:

    speedy2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...

    Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
    It started to go wrong for Remainers in March.
    Oliver Letwin master genius.

    Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
    In basic human terms as soon as the anger starting rising against parliament and its dirty tricks, the public were always going to vote for the person who said 'fuck this, I'm going to put an end to it'.

    Corbyn was offering more of it.
    True.
    People did not like another 5 years of the past 2 years.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    Yokes said:

    Im going to suggest that the Conservative seat tally will be less than predicted.

    Ducks...

    Yes, but with such an advantage a substantial majority must be incredibly likely. A majority of 40-60 just means a harder Brexit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    RobD said:

    :o i've just remembered... this means no more FTPA :o

    Yes, because the FTPA has proven very successful at preventing governments from calling elections when they like,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Where is the specific constituency predictions on BBC? Can't find it on their website.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50424263
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    It would make sense if 2017's tactical-to-LD votes have evaporated.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Evening folks

    back off the beer train.

    First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.

    But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.

    My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.

    Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.

    Well said. Almost all the long time Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here are decent people, and the Labour supporters in particular deserve better from their party. Boris and the Tories should not be too cock-a-hoop about the result — assuming the exit poll is right — as a lot of Tory votes will have been cast with real reluctance.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    If blythe valley is close...Labour are buggered, surely?

    Understatement of the evening so far.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Stocky said:

    BBC has Labour winning Cities af L & W??

    That would surely have to be the result of gigantic youth turnout, which may have misled us earlier on.
    I`d have thought that they would have backed Chuka.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Where is the specific constituency predictions on BBC? Can't find it on their website.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50424263
    Thank you kindly.
  • Sir Dom Cummings?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Possible recount in Blyth Valley. Should be a Lab majority of about 4,000 based on the second YouGov MRP.
  • Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    I was hearing lots of good stuff about Stephen Gethins from friends in the seat, including a previously senior Tory, who was going to vote for him. #justsaying
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Norfolk North 91% chance LD hold. Allegedly.

    I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD hold :)
    If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!
    I think there will be more than 13 LDs tommorow.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    Really? Surely the issue in 2017 is that the SNP vote just didn't bother. This time they have.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Andy_JS said:

    If blythe valley is close...Labour are buggered, surely?

    Understatement of the evening so far.
    I am still in shock tbh...😂
  • Alistair said:

    Dumfries and Galloway 53% chance SNP gain!!!

    Nah.
  • rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    :o i've just remembered... this means no more FTPA :o

    Yes, because the FTPA has proven very successful at preventing governments from calling elections when they like,
    Bloody terrible piece of legislation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    There must have been a last minute swing to the SNP. Not sure why.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    That's bollocks. On the BBC website it is too close to call.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    EPG said:

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    It would make sense if 2017's tactical-to-LD votes have evaporated.
    "Bollocks to Brexit" has likely resulted in the LDs losing Conservative tactical voters.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Evening folks

    back off the beer train.

    First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.

    But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.

    My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.

    Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.

    You are quite correct.
  • Someone get Francois off please!
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    The Conservatives must believe they are safe for 5 years. They have allowed Mark Francois into the studio - a man who can destroy a party in 5 minutes. :)
  • Ave_it said:

    Blyth Valley recount shows Exit poll bang on

    Or even too low Tory majority?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    I know the BBC seat projections are the only data we have to play with, but I think people are taking their predictions too seriously. They only sample 144 constituencies and only one polling station in each constituency.

    The rest is guesswork.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Mark Francois as fucking crazy as ever. Andrew Neil correctly diagnosing mental illness.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    In Scotland indeed I have the same doubts.
    The Exit Poll was a bit off last time in Scotland.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "Putney

    Possible Labour gain from Conservative

    89% chance"
  • Alistair said:

    Dumfries and Galloway 53% chance SNP gain!!!

    Nah.
    Agreed. Just nope.
  • ITV went to EU correspondence, saying the EU thought that the UK would come to their senses and vote to block Brexit. They don't understand the British people very well.

    I tried explaining to so many people in Denmark that after the referendum the UK needed to leave and ultimately they would eat grass rather than set a democratic vote aside - never convinced anyone but perhaps now they'll accept the UK is going.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Flavible did well. Got the Euros right too as I remember.

    Foxy did too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    alb1on said:

    The Conservatives must believe they are safe for 5 years. They have allowed Mark Francois into the studio - a man who can destroy a party in 5 minutes. :)

    Too late. LOL.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    I'm watching Mark Francois and thinking....I can be an MP if he can.
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    NOM is 55 on betfair now... if any tories want to take out insurance...
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    bet365 1/2 Cons hold Esher. Skybet 1/4.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    If Blyth Valley is too close to call, I am pretty sure we are looking at a majority of 100+. This is a place Labour should hold even in their darkest days.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    I was hearing lots of good stuff about Stephen Gethins from friends in the seat, including a previously senior Tory, who was going to vote for him. #justsaying
    Most of the seats in Scotland are currently marginals. If there's Remain clustering around the Nats outweighing Unionist tactical voting then - especially if the local MP is well regarded - it is possible for a narrow majority to turn into a safe seat.

    However, I do agree that there are odd looking individual seat projections buried beneath these headline figures. We shall, of course, only know how accurate they are when we get the results.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Note of caution. These exit polls are throwing up mad results

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1205264516637958144?s=20

    ??
  • Someone bloody should. Time to tell the Momentum kids some hard truths. Blair was not the devil incarnate but someone who delivered a Labour government.
  • Alistair said:

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    That's bollocks. On the BBC website it is too close to call.
    Probably mentioned previously; Orkney and Shetland 81% SNP - nonsense, surely!
  • Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    I was hearing lots of good stuff about Stephen Gethins from friends in the seat, including a previously senior Tory, who was going to vote for him. #justsaying
    Gethins is great. But being a great MP rarely makes a significant difference on polling day.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Remember Sir Ivor in 1995 predicted that John Major could beat Tony Blair.
  • Where is the specific constituency predictions on BBC? Can't find it on their website.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50424263
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    There does seem a small chance that some very unusual aspects of this election may have distorted this exit poll a bit, exaggerating the Tory lead in too-close-to-call seats, and buggering up Scotland.

    The chances that it's completely wrong seem very low though, to me.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So have the ERG got a load of reinforcements or are we welcoming a wave of one nation Conservatives who will render them irrelevant?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    I'm sceptical that Putney will go Labour at the same time as the Tories win a majority of 86.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    When are we getting some results? I'm getting bored of listening to the same SNP guy waffle on every channel. I'm sure we've normally had Sunderland or Newcastle by now...
  • Can I just check what the Exit Poll says about Prime Minister Jo Swinson?

    Asking for a friend...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Negative Nationalism will always go down badly with Nationalists
  • speedy2 said:

    East Lothian 99%+ SNP gain from SLAB

    Both SNP and SLAB say that the Exit Poll is WRONG.

    One or the other, you can't have both.
    One is managing expectations, the other clutching at straws, perfectly understandable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    tlg86 said:

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    Really? Surely the issue in 2017 is that the SNP vote just didn't bother. This time they have.
    I was speaking to a Lib Dem activist at lunch time today. He was confident that they were going to take this on the back of squeezing the Tory vote. The Unionist vote has fragmented on the anvil of Brexit. Its deeply troubling.
  • FYI, I think I am nearly ready with update to live scraping....eeekkk...
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HaroldO said:

    I'm watching Mark Francois and thinking....I can be an MP if he can.

    Why do you think it's a high bar?
  • If blythe valley is close...Labour are buggered, surely?

    Utterly fucked.

    Hope the 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' crowd are very proud of themselves tonight.

    Who will comfort the Momentum kids crying tonight?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Where is the specific constituency predictions on BBC? Can't find it on their website.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50424263
    It's a bit irritating because their percentage chance projections only stay on the screen for about 4 seconds before another page comes up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Byronic said:

    Note of caution. These exit polls are throwing up mad results

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1205264516637958144?s=20

    ??

    Recount in Blyth Valley mean I now upgraded to Extremely Serene.....

    Do we know who has asked for the recount? Please tell me it is Labour.....
  • Yokes said:

    Im going to suggest that the Conservative seat tally will be less than predicted.

    *Ducks*...


    Entirely possible - the seat-by-seat results are throwing up numerous "interesting" outcomes. Of course it could go the other way too...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    HaroldO said:

    I'm watching Mark Francois and thinking....I can be an MP if he can.

    So is my tomcat and a piece of moss on the wall.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    glw said:

    Evening folks

    back off the beer train.

    First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.

    But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.

    My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.

    Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.

    Well said. Almost all the long time Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here are decent people, and the Labour supporters in particular deserve better from their party. Boris and the Tories should not be too cock-a-hoop about the result — assuming the exit poll is right — as a lot of Tory votes will have been cast with real reluctance.
    Fair play to both you and @Richard_Tyndall - two great guys on this site for the many years I have been posting, despite our political differences.
  • Speculation that the (ahem) “creative” Lib Dem bar charts and... errr... supporting letters from... errr election expert... may have damaged them.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Mr. EPG, leaving the UK entailed leaving the EU. A theoretically separate Scotland would then need to apply to for EU membership, if it so wished.

    Pretending otherwise is as credible as pretending a separated Scotland could, as of right, demand and get a currency union with England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

    The EC was quite happy to facilitate a new united German state joining without formal application, though it wasn't necessary in the end.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited December 2019
    HaroldO said:

    I'm watching Mark Francois and thinking....I can be an MP if he can.

    Maybe you would be hampered by greater self awareness?
  • https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205246679835910145

    Spin, spin, spin from the Corbynites. It was all Brexit.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited December 2019

    Can I just check what the Exit Poll says about Prime Minister Jo Swinson?

    Asking for a friend...

    Take with pinch of salt (as all the Exit Poll predictions), but BBC say:

    Dunbartonshire East

    Likely Scottish National Party gain from Liberal Democrat

    95% chance
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    That's bollocks. On the BBC website it is too close to call.
    Probably mentioned previously; Orkney and Shetland 81% SNP - nonsense, surely!
    The exit poll in 2015 predicted the SNP would take it.

    I presume the exit poll can't model the constituency well. Which is to be expexted.

    Makes the Betfair seat line bet incredible value.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn cannot blame the Labour right for this. We’ve been as good as gold. Trappist monks.

    He wont back to the centre we go.

    I personally think Labour will find it very hard to come back from this.

    Have to admit i would never have thought under 200 was remotely possible.

    YG MRP nearly as big a loser as LAB
  • Why no results yet?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    I’m enjoying this!
  • SNP saying NE Fife far from certain.

    ie. Exit Poll *IS* pants.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019

    There does seem a small chance that some very unusual aspects of this election may have distorted this exit poll slightly, exaggerating the Tory lead in too-close-to-call seats, and buggering up Scotland.

    The chances that it's completely wrong seem very low though to me.

    Well Blyth is heading for a recount, so the Exit Poll in England at least seems to be broadly correct.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Speculation that the (ahem) “creative” Lib Dem bar charts and... errr... supporting letters from... errr election expert... may have damaged them.

    Thanks Mike! :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Norfolk North 91% chance LD hold. Allegedly.

    I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD hold :)
    If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!
    I think there will be more than 13 LDs tommorow.
    A bit early for defections, surely?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Can't believe we've not had a result yet! :open_mouth:
  • King Bongo, that's a useful comment, though, as it suggests that this may be why the EU didn't take the referendum all that seriously beforehand and offered Cameron sod all in his renegotiation (which ended up harming rather than helping him).
  • Presumably one minor point here is that the BXP vote was vapourised?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    RobD said:

    Labour projected to be down 17% in Sunderland South. 11% swing!

    Will be a bloodbath in the North East if that type of result is common.
    Paging Gallowgate
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Someone put a gag in Mark Francois.

    Thank christ he has no influence now. Watch as Johnson throws the ERG under the bus immediately and tacks towards the centre.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    SNP saying NE Fife far from certain.

    ie. Exit Poll *IS* pants.

    It may be pants in Scotland. It looks okay in England with Blyth Valley being close.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oof, SNP seat line bet is now down to 52.5

    Hope you all got on while you had the chance.
  • speedy2 said:

    Remember Sir Ivor in 1995 predicted that John Major could beat Tony Blair.
    He beat John Redwood that year :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Bundle check at Blyth
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)

    I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.

    It would make sense if 2017's tactical-to-LD votes have evaporated.
    "Bollocks to Brexit" has likely resulted in the LDs losing Conservative tactical voters.

    Perhaps more SLDs and SLAB voters are less keen on a Union with Tory English Nationalists, than a social democrat inclined Independent Scotland in the EU. Perhaps Unionism doesn't trump everything.

    Certainly If I were a Scot, I would back Yes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Blyth Valley Recount

    Labour totally stuffed.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    There does seem a small chance that some very unusual aspects of this election have distorted this exit poll slightly and exaggerated the Tory lead and buggered up Scotland.

    The chance that it's completely wrong seem very low though to me.

    Rumours already abound of Labour MPs holding on in some places courtesy of the Brexit Party (although exactly where their vote has come from is a matter of conjecture and might remain so until the BES has had time to work it out.) So yes, it might transpire that the majority takes a knock as a result.

    However, my forecast this morning of Con Maj 40 still looks too low, let alone any danger of a Hung Parliament. A Hung Parliament would require, taking the exit poll and the final polls prior to the election into account, the biggest polling failure in the history of polling.

    Partial recount in Blyth Valley.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Layla is going to make a great leader.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    SNP saying NE Fife far from certain.

    ie. Exit Poll *IS* pants.

    My guess is that the LDs will hold O&S, on a much reduced majority.

    That's the only Scottish LD prediction I'm prepared to make.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Bundle recount at Blyth BBC
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Who requested it? :o:o
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    A bundle recount!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Layla is going to make a great leader.

    You mean Luciana.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Presumably one minor point here is that the BXP vote was vapourised?

    The exit poll has BP getting 9% in one of the Sunderland seats, which was less than Labour's margin over the Tories. But I think the Tories got as much as they could have hoped for.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Ave_it said:

    Blyth Valley recount shows Exit poll bang on

    Who ordered the recount?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    ydoethur said:

    Blyth Valley Recount

    Labour totally stuffed.

    Not a recount, a bundle check. Normally means isn’t that close but close enough to merit checking the bundles
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    SNP saying NE Fife far from certain.

    ie. Exit Poll *IS* pants.

    The exit poll is saying it is 55/45 snp/LibDem. Don't know why the anchors have said it is certain SNP.
This discussion has been closed.