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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s seat total might end up being smaller than Blair’s ma

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s seat total might end up being smaller than Blair’s majority of 179 in 1997

Swindon North, a Labour seat 1997-2010

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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    First?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited December 2019
    A pointless second, as I suspect the LibDems are going to pile up in the south-east.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Titters.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Condemned to the Corbyn of history.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.
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    Please can we have more results?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    Can we please ban posts regarding registrations figures next time around? :)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
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    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.
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    Please can we have more results?

    I think my PC might blow up when we start getting 20 at a time.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    And it's probably down a bit more given the recency of the register this time. Scotland will probably see turnout rise.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    Vote share changes so far:

    Con +3.1%
    LD +3.0%
    Lab -11.7%

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    RobD said:

    Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!

    All the way, dude. All the way.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.

    YES PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
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    Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.
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    I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.
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    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.

    Tipped at 200/1 by me.

    #LegendaryModestyKlaxon
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
    As was posted often... :p
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:
    I'm not at all convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour, as represented by Chris Leslie, is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    I love how breathless the BBC are about some of the Tory gains, lol
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.

    I hope he holds, have some money on him lol
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    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
    And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.

    Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Sunderland West: Swing 11%
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    rcs1000 said:

    Vote share changes so far:

    Con +3.1%
    LD +3.0%
    Lab -11.7%

    Sorry, that was pre the Swindon result. Now:

    Con +3.2%
    LD +3.1%
    Lab -12.5%
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    Leaver labour voted for Boris in the referendum and appear to have done so again.... Even with waspi bribes and those big social media moments... Which seem not to have been.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Farage has taken the Labour leave vote lol
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!

    Jeremy Vine's infographic suggested that Walsall South was the safest Labour seat that would fall tonight, based on the exit poll.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225

    I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.

    His brother would have been good
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.

    Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.
    True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,589
    edited December 2019

    I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.

    .
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Tommy Shepherd saying 55 SNP seats doesn't match their own numbers.
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    Labour need to rebrand as London party.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    After 8 results average swing 8%.
    Swingometer has the majority at 126.
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    So when the FTPA is repealed, can we assume the Tories are now winter election fans and December 2024 is the favourite?
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.

    If he gets re-elected.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225

    IanB2 said:
    I'm not at all convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour, as represented by Chris Leslie, is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
    Nevertheless he is right that the TIG breakaway was their last chance
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    humbugger said:

    Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.

    Big shout going out to Steve Coogan and Hugh Grant.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Yes I thought he was good in the debates as well.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Betfair: 370s band favourite

    Would mean Con outperform Exit Poll
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited December 2019

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
    And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
    FPT

    Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.

    (FWIW us users of your sheet can actually sort and filter columns in our view, so setting one column as a flag would work well without requiring, I hope, major changes to your script...)

    Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    I recommend occasionally switching to C4 to see the looks of absolute distress. Stanley Johnson looking like JRM on the seats of the House of Commons.
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    humbugger said:

    Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.

    Big shout going out to Steve Coogan and Hugh Grant.
    To be a fly on the wall of Steve this evening....
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    Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2019

    IanB2 said:
    I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
    Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.


  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.

    Farage, you genius. The guarantor of Brexit :o
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    tlg86 said:

    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.

    Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.
    True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.
    Nope.
    The Yougov Welsh Barometer was correct, there was no swingback to Labour.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    just backed Con gain Bolsover at 4/9 bet365
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
    And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
    FPT

    Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.

    Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!
    Oh god, errhh, hmmm, I don't know...

    I will see...we are expecting a load of results soon and I need to check things don't blow up.

    Running this live thing is more stressful than waiting for the exit poll !!!!
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Too close to call in Finchley according to Channel 4
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Nick Robinson still the best political reporter.

    Even though he is now only a reporter on GE night.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    edited December 2019
    CHRIST.

    I remember when I was one of 754 Tories who voted in the Manchester Central by election.

    https://twitter.com/SteveRobson04/status/1205288274455076864
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    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.

    This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.

    What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.
    * Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories.
    * The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party .
    * Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
    He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after it was lost.

    Antisemitism scandal was arguably worse in 2017, with Ken and the mural etc. For all the talk, Labour has beefed up it's disciplinary response.

    Some of 2019 was easily ridiculed, sure. But the main thrust, of patching up disintegrating public realm through taxation of the wealthy, public ownership of key utilities etc., the things that Corbyn is keen on and which wouldn't have been there under any other potential leader, are popular.

    It'll never be settled obviously. Brexit is the defining fact of probably the next few decades so there's no use imagining what the Corbyn moment could have been without such a relentless focus on it.
    He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.

    You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
    I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.

    Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    Why do people sneer at political celebrities and not political hedge fund bosses and newspaper owners? The latter surely hold more power over people.
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    Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.

    They won't vote tory, but they hate labour.. or at least Corbyn
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    RobD said:

    Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.

    Farage, you genius. The guarantor of Brexit :o
    Yes, agents Farage and Corbyn are some of the Tory party’s top agents.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    After 9 results the swing is 9%.
    Majority of 144.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2019
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:
    I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
    Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.


    But all this had run out of steam by 2010. You need more than a mixture of NHS and education spending, gay rights, and populism on law and order and welfare, and David Miliband wouldn't have beaten Cameron in 2015 for these reasons either.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    After 10 results the swing is back down to 7.5%
    Majority of 116.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.

    Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.
    True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.
    Nope.
    The Yougov Welsh Barometer was correct, there was no swingback to Labour.
    Okay, I'll take your word for it. Merseyside and its fringes on the other hand, very much staying loyal to Labour!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Lansmann on ITV is just losing Labour even more votes !!!! Some rich southern bloke basically telling those that didn't vote Labour they were wrong.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    speedy2 said:

    After 9 results the swing is 9%.
    Majority of 144.

    Don't forget we have nothing from London or SE where swing will be much smaller
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:
    I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
    Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.
    I honestly agree with Labour more often than not about what the big issues are. But you can't seriously intend to run the country on throwing money at things and a commitment to undo essentially everything the Tories, Blair, or the coalition government did. For all the talk about fairness, equality, rights and so on, it was by far the most backward looking prospectus from any party in living memory, bar perhaps some of the nonsense UKIP comes out with.
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    Should Andrew Neil get his interview with Boris now?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    speedy2 said:

    After 10 results the swing is back down to 7.5%
    Majority of 116.

    Con 380? Suits my book!
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    Waspi bribe, free broadband, no tuition fees, slashed rail fares, Neilinterview gate, boyonfloorgate, fridgegate, and all the other stuff and yet Labour appear to have been stuffed. CCHQ did not seem to change the election strategy to respond to any of these issues. The private polling must have been strong and stable throughout.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Ave_it said:

    speedy2 said:

    After 9 results the swing is 9%.
    Majority of 144.

    Don't forget we have nothing from London or SE where swing will be much smaller
    True, but an update is still interesting.
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    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut
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    Ian Lavery in recount !!!
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    Should Andrew Neil get his interview with Boris now?

    I think Boris might be keen now.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,568
    Fiona Hill v Jon Lansman hahaha
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
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    llefllef Posts: 298
    hooray - i think ben lake is a good mp for ceredigion
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    The third book in the Tim Shipman trilogy is going to be a belter.

    Has Cummings blogged yet?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    Oh dear, I'm in big trouble at work...
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    Ian Lavery in recount !!!

    I hope he goes

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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Wansbeck???!!!!!!
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.

    Gentler politics personified.
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    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    35/46 on the MRP !! :open_mouth:

    Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    llef said:

    hooray - i think ben lake is a good mp for ceredigion
    It looks as though you were right!

    The LibDems have slipped to 4th in Ceredigion, with the Tories second.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Alliance 1000 ahead on North Down
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    35/46 on the MRP !! :open_mouth:

    Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
    It is the one with the 28 seat majority.

    I am tempted to load in the first one.

    The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Ave_it said:

    Wansbeck???!!!!!!

    In line with the most extreme swing in the NE.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    tlg86 said:

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    Oh dear, I'm in big trouble at work...
    Where is Wansbeck
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
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    71.34% turnout in Ceredigion
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    Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.

    Gentler politics personified.

    Are they in mourning?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,466
    Ave_it said:

    Wansbeck???!!!!!!

    Full recount probably means less than 200 votes.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    One of the few people in the HoC I dislike more than Chote.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    Wansbeck???!!!!!!

    Full recount probably means less than 200 votes.
    Majority 2017: 10,435. :p
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The left-leaning contributor on BBC is now blaming everything on Corbyn. The Labour Civil War gets underway...
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    Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.

    Gentler politics personified.

    Are they in mourning?
    The PM’s dad is loving it.
This discussion has been closed.