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The Tories
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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What Next for the Parties?
The Tories
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Boris has won and won big. He has done so by being brave, willing to gamble and being ruthlessly disciplined about his message. It is a measure of his achievements that so many still seem to regard him as a bumbling fool. This is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I think that we will see what Cameron could have done had he been arsed.
He may or may not be a good PM, he may or may not swing to the centre, he may choose reform, he might not, none of us can be realistically confident in what we are getting. I hope he does well.
His achievements are based largely upon being up against Corbyn, the most unpopular leader of the opposition ever.
What happens now is what he wants his legacy to be, and also whether he wants more than one term. Labour are mortally wounded, so if he can put together a decent domestic policy agenda post Brexit, he could probably see off a mini Corbyn Labour leader in '24.
https://www.twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1205457816183615489
I would take issue with your final sentence: Cameron had his flaws, as we all do, but he worked bloody hard and was far less lazy than Boris.
In fact, even Boris admitted it.
Changing times.
I think Labour arriving at the conclusion that the policies were great, and just the leader awful, is pretty likely, I'm afraid.
Innocent face.
What's happening is several people deciding who they want as leader, and then searching round for a narrative which justifies that choice. Then they'll argue about which narrative is true, but really all they'll be thinking about is who they want.
I'm afraid Luton remains a Labour fortress. I voted for Gavin Shuker, this time, who I thought deserved credit for resigning from Labour over anti-Semitism, and who ran as an independent.
I'm just hoping his selfish and untrustworthy side will cause him to stab the Tory nutters in the back.
"Postal votes
We found 38% saying they had voted by post. The Conservatives won 48% of postal votes, with 29% going to Labour and 13% to the Lib Dems. 41% of Conservative and Lib Dem voters voted by post, compared to 34% of Labour and 33% of SNP voters."
Maybe that helped Boris, and explains why his majority was more likely the first MRP rather than the second.
- Big win for UKIP in 2014 Euro elections
- Surprise win for Tories in GE 2015 with referendum promise
- Surprise win for Leave in 2016 referendum
- Big win for BXP in 2019 Euro elections
- Big win for Tories in GE 2019 with clear hard Brexit promise
I am now seriously worried about prospects for Rejoin.
Labour won. Twitter bloke says so.
She pushed hard for an early election, and eventually with the SNP shamed Labour into supporting it too, and it couldn't have gone more wrong for her.
Hubris to the power of ten.
It is the objective of the strategy we differ on. My admittedly cynical interpretation is its all about him and how he is perceived. So if its advantageous to him (not the country or the people) to end the UK union or perhaps run big budget deficits to leave a problem in the distant future thats completely fine with him.
For all their faults, Osborne and Cameron, had a balance between personal ambition and doing the right thing for the country.
Labour now has to decide if it wants to move back to the centre after its rout under Corbyn under a leader like Keir Starmer or Jess Phillips or stick with the left under a Burgon or Long Bailey and gift Boris and the Tories another decade in power. The LDs best strategy is likely to hope Labour stays left and stick to the liberal centre
The polling keeps saying these ideas are popular, but when it actually gets to the ballot box they don't win.
It will be Boris's Brexit Sh*tshow for the next few years.
So turning to Johnson in his pomp and the idea that he he will be the first Tory leader at last not to be undone by the curse of the European Union. He will most likely make the already intractable mess worse. When he talks about "getting Brexit done" like you might talk about the need to extract that rotten tooth, he isn't in fact building a new political and economic long term settlement with Europe and the world.
The fundamental issue is that that there is no acceptable solution that doesn't involve a very close relationship with the EU, which will be on the EU's terms. The EU is not minded to protect the UK from the consequences of its decision to leave if that decision damages the EU and so will be rigorous in enforcing its will. That in turn is unacceptable to those who voted Leave to be masters of their ship and to get an unloved institution out of their lives. They will never be less in control nor hear more about the EU.
Johnson's particular problem is that he has thrown his lot in with the No Dealers. They voted him in and will vote him out if they feel he has betrayed them. At the same time he has to get a functioning deal with the EU and on the back of that with third countries. It will consume everything for years. And if his agreement (that he denies) with the EU over the Irish Sea border is anything to go by, it will be bad.
Johnsons deal would have passed without a GE, the conservative rebels were anti no dealers. Once Johnson had a deal, however shit, his position was pretty strong.
Has he forgotten Boris's "triumphs" as Foreign Sec?
Obviously your first sentence has some truth but Swinson made sure Brexit happened whereas it was on life support over the Summer.
https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/1205560509803778048
You desperately don't want to be proved wrong (and will no doubt argue that whatever happens proves you were right regardless) but I now expect a good deal we can all get behind.
TSE is I'm sure now having a similar Damascene moment with some pineapple.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
The EU only agreed to an extension because an election was on the cards . And even if they had given that without an election what were they supposed to do in January if Parliament was still in a zombie state of not passing the deal and not having an election.
The EU have better things to do with their time then sit there watching MPs never agree to anything .
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
"There are no quick fixes, no instant solutions. Austerity and Brexit have left our society divided, our public services run down, our sense of community fractured and our economy under-performing. There is much to be done to prepare Britain for the next decade and no time to waste in getting started.
We are in politics not just to manage things better, but to make things happen. To build a more prosperous, fair and open society. We believe in the market economy as the best way to deliver prosperity and distribute economic benefits. But we recognise that market mechanisms on their own are not enough; that the private sector alone cannot ensure that there are good services for everyone, or promote employment opportunities, or tackle economic inequality, or protect the environment for future generations.
We believe in a society in which every citizen shares rights and responsibilities. But, we recognise that a strong country is built from the bottom, not the top: that conformity quickly becomes the enemy of diversity. And that the imposition of social blueprints leads to authoritarian centralised government. Liberal Democrats believe that power and opportunity, like wealth, should be widely spread.
Above all, Liberal Democracy is about liberty. That does not just mean freedom from oppressive government. It means providing all citizens with the opportunity to build worthwhile lives for themselves and their families and helping them to recognise their responsibilities to the wider community.
Liberal Democrats believe the role of democratic government is to protect and strengthen liberty, to redress the balance between the powerful and the weak, between rich and poor and between immediate gains and long-term environmental costs.
That is the Liberal Democrat vision: of active government which invests in people, promotes their long-term prosperity and welfare, safeguards their security, and is answerable to them for its actions.
Much of what we propose here requires no money - only political will. But where extra investment is required we say where it will come from. This is a menu with prices.
The purpose of this manifesto is to widen opportunities for all.
And its aim is to build a nation of self-reliant individuals, living in strong communities, backed by an enabling government."
To be blunt Corbyn has been kryptonite to the Remain cause . Woeful in the EU ref campaign , and then terrifying pro EU Tories away from the Lib Dems .
PS I voted Labour inspite of Corbyn !
My issue with him is that he is unprincipled, dishonest, feckless and a fraud and totally unfit to be in a position of trust.
From a LibDem perspective we gained 1.3m votes and lost seats. The obvious task is to build local organisations to win council seats and then councils and MPs. In other words what Ashdown and Kennedy did before that Orange Book wazzock Clegg binned it all