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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the New Year begins Stodge asks “Is Britain Now a One-Party
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the New Year begins Stodge asks “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”
After the 1992 General Election, the fourth consecutive Conservative victory, the Times, in its wonderful statistical summary, described the Conservatives as “the natural Party of Government” and Labour as “the natural Party of Opposition”. Despite a poor economic outlook and 13 years of Government, John Major surprised the polls and most pundits by coming home victorious.
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Unfortunately Labour didn't have anybody the voters liked in the first term, then they went into furious self-indulgence mode and accidentally lost less badly than expected and failed to learn the lessons, so they lost an extra election cycle, but luckily it was a short one.
If the members work it out they'll probably get back in next time or the time after. If they don't they won't.
https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/1212239747395080192
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212141380425916416?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
It's critical Labour elect someone fairly competent as their leader (and not insane, of course). We require a decent Leader of the Opposition to hold the PM to account, and to be a viable alternative come the next General Election.
Labour MPs should remember what happened the last time they didn't act as gatekeepers (their new duty under the Miliband leadership rules) and 'broadened the debate' by putting a far left fruitcake on the shortlist.
I do hope we don't see a tacky cult of personality building around "cheery chappy" Johnson.
At least the “simplicity” won’t be a problem, given the field?
Now Labour have fewer MPs, a lower threshold of 10%, and this month we leave the EU and will no longer have any MEPs.
So in February 2020, 21 MPs will be needed and there are around 40 hard left members to do the nominating. Plus the membership is much more left wing now.
So if the hard left stand again, they win again.
Unless he was copying Corbyn while JC was a backbencher?!
It may however just be because he’s getting more expos...airtime than before so it’s more noticeable.
* Actually, the collapse of the Euro is a much more realistic (if unlikely) proposition, which would likely lead to the collapse of the EU.
Dogsitting 11 dogs plus 8 puppies overnight so no drinks for me. Still didnt appreciate them waking me up at 5.30 this morning. But if that's the worst thing about 2020 it will be a good year.
Occurs to me that calling him 'Boris' is the equivalent of 'Julia did it' from 1984 for his detractors!
Ridden a tricycle at 8mph recently?
I’ve never doubted his ‘personality’ label, but he always had some substance behind it. Early in his political career, his genius was putting policies across in a way people found easy to understand without talking down to them, or sending himself up while doing so so that they were enjoying talking to him. But recently, he seems to have more or less ditched the policy and concentrated on the persona.
On topic, the PM’s election approach of posing as a new government was made more plausible by the composition and actions of Parliament, particularly since he became Prime Minister. He did not have the automatic ability to put through his own bills un-amended, and he could not prevent Parliament from putting through bills that he objected to.
I also think that his election victory was far from inevitable as it relied on the deal with the EU for the WA and the agreement of opposing MPs to allow the election in the first place.
Once the election was called then victory relied on not repeating the mistakes of 2017, but in hindsight the overall effect of the campaign seems to have been minimal (except perhaps for the Lib Dems).
One thing I've mentioned before that always struck me was Cameron in a 2010 leader debate making as one of his very first points that not everything labour did was bad, and he would keep the good stuff.
Now, that was probably just a bland promise designed to assure people he was not a rabid right winger, but I think it says something it was among the first points he made - it meant that however much he might say Labour were awful and needed replacing after 13 years, people could know he was suggesting everything had gotten worse, that the country was a pile of crap. It wasnt cheery like Boris, but it wasn't miserablist.
It showed he could get a win others said he could not, that those who said he wanted immediate no deal (like me) were wrong, and although more voted for it the impression that parliament would continue to seek to stop it altogether (even though it might have passed after more scrutiny).
Bluntly, it undermined the Boris fear factor.
Totally unacceptable
I’m shocked. Shocked, I tell you,
They seem to have spent most of the last year doubting it.
One of the blights of 2020 will be their return to the Premiership. Maybe we can find grounds to deduct them fifty points.
You may be underestimating their ability to screw things up.
[I don't have a huge interest, not into football, but would prefer to see them promoted].
And if he does or did a lot of great things for people as a backbench mp and as a campaigner, then perhaps he could do more good if he had stayed a backbencher or even if he was not an mp - he doesnt seem built to be a legislator. He wants to be a resistance, he could do that better out of parliament.
How many has Corbyn lifted out of poverty? Well, precisely fuck all. He even voted against most of Brown’s programme.
So I sort of agree, but I’m doubting if he actually does care. He may think he cares, which is not quite the same thing.
If he fails (and everything about his personality, approach so far and the logic of the situation makes me think he will) then is persona will go stale pretty quickly and terminally.
Hope you are feeling a bit better as well, although I imagine that’s a bit optimistic under the circumstances.
It also depends on what the ACTUAL current description of poverty is, I for one have no idea.
Do I think we will do a deal with the USA, no, unless Trump thinks it will help his election prospects and caves in big time.
You were not saying that about Blair in 97' I'll be bound. Exultant more like. You are just trying to pin everything on Boris because Labour are so shite and Boris is the only avenue you have open to vent your frustration. Boris many end up being shite but don't try and pretend he is Atlas, because he isn't.
Hope you and your wife are feeling better. I was in hospital with antibiotics and oxygen myself a couple of months ago and I know how stressful it can be.
Hope the rest of the year is better!
That is old school, and probably correct, but politicians use relative poverty now don't they?
Edited extra bit: sorry, misread the post. I hope your wife gets well soon.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ian-lavery-communities-represented-labour-21192144
He claims ‘the architects of Labour’s defeat’ were its Blairite backbenchers.
Then he claims the election was lost because of Brexit.
Then he says the party needs to listen to Labour voters.
And he apparently does not realise those three positions are totally contradictory.
If Ian Lavery becomes leader, deputy leader, party chairman or anything other than the janitor at Wansbeck Working Men’s club, Labour are utterly, totally screwed. We will be seriously talking about Tory gain Bootle.
And congratulations to @williamglenn who has clearly officially won his bet now which seemed outlandish when he did it. Even if its only won by the skin of the teeth, its not a photo finish and a win is a win so well done!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/01/zero-carbon-energy-outstrips-fossil-fuels-in-britain-across-2019
It might be an idea though for someone to check that there isn’t anything too bad in their earlier published works.
Having said that, Johnson seems to have largely got away with it so far.
https://twitter.com/independent/status/682144117732683776?s=21
The Northern Ireland protocol was made without any consultation with those that are affected by it. (The thought apparently never entered Johnson's consideration). No-one in Northern Ireland wants it. It is markedly worse for Northern Ireland than May's Deal, as it imposes unaffordable costs on an already fragile Northern Ireland economy. It drives a coach and horses through the identity issue. The DUP might be an unattractive bunch but they represent a legitimate and large interest in Northern Ireland. The deal is probably unworkable and Johnson is lying about its treaty obligations.
Johnson went ahead with it precisely because he agreed with the ERG loons and their interest is more important to him than the Union or the interests of one of its constituent nations.
Tony Blair was previously a Marxist and joined Labour on the Bennite left of the party, like Corbyn. That wasn't held against him as leader because his actions as leader weren't like that.
The progress since then is just astonishing.
The transformation over the last decade is remarkable. I see no reason at this rate why we can't end this decade generating at least 75-80% if not more of our electricity from zero carbon sources.