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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Next Labour Leader matrix – working out who’ll win
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Next Labour Leader matrix – working out who’ll win
Calling the Labour leadership contest is hard, to me at least. Not only do we not yet know who’s going to stand but working out what the key considerations will be with the relevant voters – at both nomination stage and in the election proper – is an exercise in second-guessing on multiple levels. We don’t even know when the election will start for sure: it might be next week but that’s still to be confirmed by Labour’s NEC.
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Excellent tour d‘horizon Mr Herdson!
ABOLISH
SLAVERY!The impending surprise is that Starmer appears to have a clear lead despite not resolving Labour’s duck with women.
I would also mention that there seems to be quite a bit of support growing in some of the Facebook groups I am a member of. One was running a poll over the last few days and it put Lavery top in a poll of about 900 group members, although I would estimate that only around half of these will have Labour membership. There seems to be a swing towards support for Lavery from RLB.
Am expecting a strong showing from Lavery when the next YouGov poll comes out, but as ever, DYOR if betting
As for Starmer not yet declaring, that could be he is having his own Chuka moment. Or perhaps, he too believes Labour needs a female leader. He would be a very strong Deputy for say a Lisa Nandy. That would then be a strong ticket. Maybe there is haggling going on in the background. Labour should be eternally grateful if he puts ambition aside and becomes the Stop Burgon candidate.
Not afraid to make the right stands too. She is the sort of leader who could regain former New Labour voters like myself.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1130418708910882817?s=19
However she does not pass the test that any potential Labour leader I rate (from 2010 onwards) never gets the leadership.
Less reassuring that that seems to be benefitting Lavery of all people...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50982723
I see the BBC front page has, as one of the biggest six stories in the world today, Greta Thunberg changing her Twitter name. That's ahead of rising fentanyl use, Nandy's decision to stand, and teen employment declining.
On-topic: I have a knack for screwing up these sorts of things. I think Macron was the only one I got right. Well, that and the previous but one Lib Dem contest when I fluked being online right as almost every relevant bit of news broke. I'd probably be looking at Nandy right now.
I don't tend to win on leadership contests either. I tend to favour the best candidates, and they rarely win in an era of killer clown leaders.
However, we should not entirely rule out RLB herself deciding she cannot win and encouraging Rayner to stand, effectively flipping the ticket, even while recognising it is unlikely.
Meanwhile Canberra has just set an all-time high temperature record, 18C hotter than usual for early Jan.
Imagine.
Electing a man who has been investigated for tax evasion and stands accused of some distinctly dodgy financial dealings by his own union would be the equivalent of the Tories electing Rees Mogg.
It is fascinating how the Left have taken to these platforms to reinforoce each other, whereas the Right by and large do not share their views. Even in totally apolitical groups, those on the Left will find a reason to rail at Johnson/Tories. Yet from those 14m who voted Tory, not a peep. Certainly, nobody on Facebook would have a clue about my politics.
Even sport (and I get that it cannot outbid or should the likes of Sky and BT) that they used to present so well is being broadcast in a very shallow way now - The Sports Personality of the year was a irritating mixture of extreme shallowness (jumping from shot to shot in nanoseconds with constant banal music ) and extreme wokeness. It used to be a good in depth look at the sporting year that was ideal for its audience .BTW BBCthe natural audience for this is not people with the attention span of a wasp but people who watch sport (ie can concentrate on things for hours) .
Or was it wasted? One thing is for sure, if you think the right ignores social media, you ought to stay in more.
Pushing him forward betrays a slavish adherence to political purity that Donald Trump could only dream about. Alt Right, meet Dolt Left.
Maybe the far right/fanatical Leavers do use facebook to push their own political views out to others. But not the great bulk of the 13m who just voted Tory.
The case for Lavery, at risk of damning with faint praise, is that at least he has run something, which puts him a step up on most (all?) of his rivals.
Starmer agrees it should be a female leader this time
Starmer doesnt want the job for personal or historical reasons unknown
Starmer doesnt want to be leader as its a really tough job with low chance of success
At odds of 5/1+ those might not be very significant concerns but at odds on they are valuable to have onside.
Mafia bosses have "run something". Doesn't mean you'd make them PM.
David's artcle is a good read as always, but rather boils down to "Dunno, really", doesn't it? A point not yet mentioned here is that Phillips will be viewed with reservations by members who didn't like vocal critics of Corbyn, especially as she's been enthusiastically endorsed by arch-critic Wes Streeting. Also, subtle point about hHer otherwise excellent video is that it seemed to have a subtext that caring about people in difficulty was a progressive programme, impicitly without the need for more, and that doesn't tick the left of centre box.
I do agree that neither RLB nor Lavery look likely to win unless they blow a TV debate away with a brilliant performance. Lavery in particular would be a reversion to the "let's have a candidate who puts up a feisty show" attitude which the left used to have before Corbyn proved they could actually win. I think that McDonnell will want a winner. If RLB doesn't stand and the left feels Rayner is left-wing (not entirely clear to me) she's their obvious shot, but I wouldn't totally rule out Clive Lewis. Starmer is currently too short in the betting - he's favourite, but some of that is simply name recgonition, and that will change.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1213250469365272576?s=20
My conclusion from it is that - improbable as it sounds, Ian Lavery is value. If there is one and only one candidate from the far left, then while RLB must still be favourite, backing for her seems more equivocal than I'd expected. So what chance does he have of being the candidate from the left? I have nothing more than sound and noise to go on, but I'd say somewhere between 25% and 50%. And once you're the candidate from the far left, in a sense it doesn't matter how many opponents you have: the candidate from the left will get down to the last two, at which point it's 50/50. (Massive oversimplification, but you get the drift).
In my view, Ian Lavery should be no worse than 15-1 from here.
I'd also previously given some weight to Len McCluskey's insistence that the next leader be someone from the north who can talk to leave voters. I'd thought this through and come up with Lisa Nandy. But what if this was just code for 'the next leader should be Ian Lavery'? Lavery is, of course, much more a politician in Len's mold than Lisa Nandy is. And while Len doesn't talk for the whole selectorate, his is one of the single most important voices.
Sorry.
For various reasons, I hardly watch TV news now (used to when I have my sarnies but now I tend to watch history on Youtube). Not sure what the last BBC programme I watched was, other than the news.
His version is that the police took advantage of him being in the neighbourhood of a fight to kick, punch, spit on him, arrest him and then stitch him up through perjured evidence due to his role in the Miners’ Strike.
The police version is that they intervened when he ran at ManU supporters shouting and screaming threats and had to restrain him when he attacked them instead.
The magistrates believed the latter version and fined him £200, which he inflates a few hundred more every time he tells the tale.
The NUM believed the former version and paid his fine.
Which was true? Who knows. Both sides involved are pathological liars and I would hesitate to trust either of them if they said rain was wet.
What does it show? Nothing, except that he was always somebody who took money from other people if it suited him.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/nov/17/arsenal-tottenham-womens-super-league-wsl-match-report
F1 languishes far behind on the BBC now, after they threw away the coverage to pay TV.
So can "1984" -
"This was not an act of war. It was an act to prevent war."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublespeak
Imagine if a male politician had said this about a female one.
https://labourlist.org/2017/10/tim-bale-inside-labours-massive-membership-base/
It seems reasonable to suppose more than half of that half is in London, so 25-30% is not a ridiculous figure.
To put it in context, on a rough estimate London contains around 14% of the UK’s population, although a higher than usual proportion of that will not have the franchise.
But if the measure of success is bums on seats, then women's football is up there and keep an eye on women's cricket as well.
Actually, scrub that.
https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1213375414544084992?s=20
https://twitter.com/PeterArnottGlas/status/1213389690730098688?s=20
The left are much noisier and public about their views on social media than the right. Doesn’t mean the right isn’t there.
I found it guilty. It’s the first thing I’ve ever come across where the plot structure is more confused than Huxley’s Eyeless in Gaza.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/03/mike-pence-iran-911-suleimani
What is the administration up to ?
Was this just an impulse assassination, or are they planning a full scale war ?
(There are legal arguments that the US has already initiated a state of war, but that’s not the same thing.)
Yet even Reanne Evans and Kelly Fisher, when playing against men, lost and lost badly. This despite being so dominant in the women’s game that Evans won the world championship when eight months pregnant.
#Sandy4Nandy
The reason why most of us are astonished she got pushed onto the stage as Corbyn's Annointed One has nothing to do with how she looks or how she sounds. It's just that There's Nothing There.....
But who knows where that stupidity might lead them ?
On point.
https://twitter.com/StallaSimon/status/1213350400000249856?s=20
I'm no expert but because I know someone who knew Profumo back in the day, I've read a few books on the subject and the trouble for any drama and especially this one is that Christine Keeler is paradoxically both central to and peripheral to events. Keeler and the people around her are blundering about like bulls in someone else's china shop. And that explains the flashbacks -- to get Keeler's former lovers into the story. Frankly, a documentary would be better (and one is scheduled to follow the series).
Phillips
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jess-phillips-need-strong-leader-21209233
Nandy
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/03/labour-power-activism-leader
As mooted earlier, this might hurt him with his base who are likely to have family in the services. This could be behind the sudden urgency to show Trump surrounded by evangelicals.