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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie Sanders, moves into the favourites slot for the Democra

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie Sanders, moves into the favourites slot for the Democratic nomination

As can be seen from the chart we have a new favourite in the betting for the Democratic nomination. The oldest man in the race, the Socialist senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has now edged above Joe Biden in the betting to become the latest favourite.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,452
    First


  • Election could be called Tomorrow or Tuesday.
  • @Sunil_Prasannan

    What did you mean by Flybe are in trouble?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 378
    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,631
    Warren is polling higher than Bloomberg with Democrats and most of her voters will go to Bloomberg
  • Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,452
    edited January 12
    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    Not necessarily - the Greek player Tsitsipas won the end-of-year ATP Finals, he's only 21!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,631
    edited January 12
    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again and parties tend to pick experienced party elders to take on the President
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited January 12

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Yet in the article describing FlyBE troubles there is not a mention of brexit. are you obsessed?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240
    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again
    That's an interesting observation. But remember it's a pretty small dataset. There have only been three times since 1992 that an incumbent has been up for reelection: 1996, 2004, 2012.

    Bob Dole was ancient, while Romney and Kerry were only just the wrong side of 60. Given both nominees last time around were also North of 60, it's not clear there is any real pattern here.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240
    HYUFD said:

    Warren is polling higher than Bloomberg with Democrats and most of her voters will go to Bloomberg

    Eh?

    Most Warren voters will not go to Bloomberg.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,967
    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again and parties tend to pick experienced party elders to take on the President
    I think it's a general trend - people of 70+ are on average fitter than 20 years ago, and as a voter group they are more numerous than in the past and keener to vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,631
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Warren is polling higher than Bloomberg with Democrats and most of her voters will go to Bloomberg

    Eh?

    Most Warren voters will not go to Bloomberg.
    Sorry, meant Sanders
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Yet in the article describing FlyBE troubles there is not a mention of brexit. are you obsessed?
    Given FlyBe is mostly domestic UK, it's hard to see how Brexit could be the cause of their woes.

    Iran and the rising price of oil are a more likely culprit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,631

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again and parties tend to pick experienced party elders to take on the President
    I think it's a general trend - people of 70+ are on average fitter than 20 years ago, and as a voter group they are more numerous than in the past and keener to vote.
    Reagan was 69 when he was inaugurated in 1981, probably the equivalent of 79 today
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,299
    edited January 12

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,631
    edited January 12
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again
    That's an interesting observation. But remember it's a pretty small dataset. There have only been three times since 1992 that an incumbent has been up for reelection: 1996, 2004, 2012.

    Bob Dole was ancient, while Romney and Kerry were only just the wrong side of 60. Given both nominees last time around were also North of 60, it's not clear there is any real pattern here.
    Bill Clinton is the only candidate under 50 to have taken on an incumbent President in the last 50 years (and that was after 12 years of one party in the Oval Office), I think a trend is there
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Warren is polling higher than Bloomberg with Democrats and most of her voters will go to Bloomberg

    Eh?

    Most Warren voters will not go to Bloomberg.
    Sorry, meant Sanders
    I agree that Sanders will benefit more than any other candidate from the departure of Warren.

    But it's also worth remembering that Biden benefits most from the departures of Buttigieg, Booker, Klobuchar, Yang, and Steyer.

    The moderate side of the race is much more crowded than the socialist side. This gives Sanders an advantage in the early states, but it becomes much harder for him when he (ultimately) finds himself against a single centrist.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again
    That's an interesting observation. But remember it's a pretty small dataset. There have only been three times since 1992 that an incumbent has been up for reelection: 1996, 2004, 2012.

    Bob Dole was ancient, while Romney and Kerry were only just the wrong side of 60. Given both nominees last time around were also North of 60, it's not clear there is any real pattern here.
    Bill Clinton is the only candidate under 50 to have taken on an incumbent President in the last 50 years, I think a trend is there
    The problem, I suspect, is that 80+% of presidential candidates in the last 50 years have been above 60, so it's hard to know if it's a real trend or just noise.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 9,491
    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Remind me how Brexit these destroyed airlines.
  • Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Yet in the article describing FlyBE troubles there is not a mention of brexit. are you obsessed?
    I have obsessions but not Brexit.

    Screw them, robbing People for decades.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Yet in the article describing FlyBE troubles there is not a mention of brexit. are you obsessed?
    Given FlyBe is mostly domestic UK, it's hard to see how Brexit could be the cause of their woes.

    Iran and the rising price of oil are a more likely culprit.
    Did Iran shoot their aeroplanes down too?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,631
    edited January 12
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again
    That's an interesting observation. But remember it's a pretty small dataset. There have only been three times since 1992 that an incumbent has been up for reelection: 1996, 2004, 2012.

    Bob Dole was ancient, while Romney and Kerry were only just the wrong side of 60. Given both nominees last time around were also North of 60, it's not clear there is any real pattern here.
    Bill Clinton is the only candidate under 50 to have taken on an incumbent President in the last 50 years, I think a trend is there
    The problem, I suspect, is that 80+% of presidential candidates in the last 50 years have been above 60, so it's hard to know if it's a real trend or just noise.
    Obama and Bill Clinton were under 50 when they won their party's nominations (as were JFK and FDR going back before that), Nixon, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Bush W and Gore were in their 50s when nominated. Only 3 of them took on an incumbent President, Clinton, Carter and Mondale and only 1 of them an incumbent President after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Mondale and he was the previous VP and an experienced party statesman.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    More will follow and so will shops.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,878

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Yet in the article describing FlyBE troubles there is not a mention of brexit. are you obsessed?
    When it was in trouble last year Brexit was cited as one of several issues, including exchange rate weaknesses.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920
    Oh God, I feel sick. I have laid Bernie in recent days like a sailor on shore leave.

  • The euro rate has dropped​ every year since Brexit started.

    Fact, not opinion.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920
    Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.
  • Oh God, I feel sick. I have laid Bernie in recent days like a sailor on shore leave.

    You'll be collecting then.
  • Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.

    Joe Biden.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,431
    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Given BMI ceased operations in 2012 that was remarkably prescient of them!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,431

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    More will follow and so will shops.
    Yeah, its all about Brexit and not about online shopping....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,631
    edited January 12

    Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.

    Looks like they are, Trump will be fine with Sanders, he can take some tips from Boris on how he trounced Corbyn to beat Bernie.

    A Trump v Sanders race would be the biggest ideological divide in a US presidential race since Nixon v McGovern in 1972
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920

    Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.

    Joe Biden.
    Well, he better wake up and seize the crown, cos my panicky side is saying this isn't looking good.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Given BMI ceased operations in 2012 that was remarkably prescient of them!
    Are flyBMI & BMIbaby different or the same?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240
    HYUFD said:

    Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.

    Looks like they are, Trump will be fine with Sanders, he can take some tips from Boris on how he trounced Corbyn to beat Bernie
    Sanders may be favorite (in the betting markets) but he's only reckoned to be a 33% chance of getting the nomination.

    I'm green on Sanders, but I certainly wouldn't be buying him here.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,431
    edited January 12

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Given BMI ceased operations in 2012 that was remarkably prescient of them!
    Are flyBMI & BMIbaby different or the same?
    Different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flybmi

    And Monarch (Charter Airline > Loco) and Thomas Cook (High St Holiday sales vs online) were as much victims of failing business models as anything else.
  • Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.

    Joe Biden.
    Well, he better wake up and seize the crown, cos my panicky side is saying this isn't looking good.
    Routing for you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920
    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

  • RobDRobD Posts: 42,533

    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    Are people really clamouring for more constitutional tinkering? :p
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,878

    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    That sells it for white van man in Stoke on Trent. What a moron!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,878
    HYUFD said:

    Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.

    Looks like they are, Trump will be fine with Sanders, he can take some tips from Boris on how he trounced Corbyn to beat Bernie.

    A Trump v Sanders race would be the biggest ideological divide in a US presidential race since Nixon v McGovern in 1972
    I hate to agree with you on this one, but Trump gets his second term if Bernie wins the nom.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 993
    edited January 13
    I hate to agree with you on this one, but Trump gets his second term if Bernie wins the nom.

    I think trump wins, regardless.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920

    HYUFD said:

    Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.

    Looks like they are, Trump will be fine with Sanders, he can take some tips from Boris on how he trounced Corbyn to beat Bernie.

    A Trump v Sanders race would be the biggest ideological divide in a US presidential race since Nixon v McGovern in 1972
    I hate to agree with you on this one, but Trump gets his second term if Bernie wins the nom.
    I've spent months fretting that Elizabeth McGovern would get the nomination, now I have to worry about Bernie McGovern.

    Biden may be too old, but he's the best shot at this unless the kid gets some uptick in S Carolina.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 39,455

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1216483075347095554

    Hmm. What could this be?

    When we the last time the I had a scoop of any note?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920

    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    That sells it for white van man in Stoke on Trent. What a moron!
    She is running to win amongst the massively middle class, metropolitan activist membership not Stoke.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920
    RobD said:

    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    Are people really clamouring for more constitutional tinkering? :p
    No. But activists might be.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,299
    viewcode said:



    Fair enough. Consider the statement modified to include "...and all people trained adequately and quicker..." and "...all equipment upgraded to the latest variant..." and "...all availability rates to be 80% or over..." and "...all activities to be frequently rehearsed via exercises..." and so on. But I didn't want to swamp the OP.

    If defence policy were about providing defence capability, rather than salving national vanity or job creation exercises, then there is one immediate action that the MoD could take to improve the situation. They should accept that Carrier Strike, like the Trident boats, is not a sovereign capability, close down 207 Squadron and move all F-35B type conversion to VMFAT-501 with the USMC. This would free up 8-14 jets and the most experienced pilots for actual operations. It would be expensive but frankly you get what you pay for.

    The tories don't have the emotional robustness to defend such a move from the Mail Online comments section so it's not going to happen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 39,455

    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    She's heard Clive Lewis ideas and said hold my beer....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920
    Hold on. Maybe Trump aint gonna walk this after all:

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1216483075347095554

    Hmm. What could this be?

    When we the last time the I had a scoop of any note?
    :lol:

    Probably news of their circulation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 39,455
    The Labour Leadership candidates at the moment...

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 28,920
    HYUFD said:
    Looks at bets. Oh just great. Just absolutely great.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 378
    edited January 13

    HYUFD said:

    Tell me, Dem activists and primary voters are not going to give Trump four more years without even blinking by electing Bernie.

    Jeez.

    This is like Corbyn all over again.

    Looks like they are, Trump will be fine with Sanders, he can take some tips from Boris on how he trounced Corbyn to beat Bernie.

    A Trump v Sanders race would be the biggest ideological divide in a US presidential race since Nixon v McGovern in 1972
    I hate to agree with you on this one, but Trump gets his second term if Bernie wins the nom.
    I've spent months fretting that Elizabeth McGovern would get the nomination, now I have to worry about Bernie McGovern.
    The last time Elizabeth McGovern was nominated was for Downton Abbey!
  • Who's your favourite world leader, not including UK & USA?

    Give a reason for your answer..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,878

    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    That sells it for white van man in Stoke on Trent. What a moron!
    She is running to win amongst the massively middle class, metropolitan activist membership not Stoke.
    If she wants to ignore white van man in Stoke on Trent she will win like Jeremy!

    Long Bailey, should be Long Face, she always looks miserable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 1,878

    Who's your favourite world leader, not including UK & USA?

    Give a reason for your answer..

    Putin. Oh sorry you are excluding UK and USA. My mistake.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,036
    Breaking news is a video from 20 years ago. Twitters like Sirota need to drown themselves in the sea
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240
    edited January 13
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again
    That's an interesting observation. But remember it's a pretty small dataset. There have only been three times since 1992 that an incumbent has been up for reelection: 1996, 2004, 2012.

    Bob Dole was ancient, while Romney and Kerry were only just the wrong side of 60. Given both nominees last time around were also North of 60, it's not clear there is any real pattern here.
    Bill Clinton is the only candidate under 50 to have taken on an incumbent President in the last 50 years, I think a trend is there
    The problem, I suspect, is that 80+% of presidential candidates in the last 50 years have been above 60, so it's hard to know if it's a real trend or just noise.
    Obama and Bill Clinton were under 50 when they won their party's nominations (as were JFK and FDR going back before that), Nixon, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Bush W and Gore were in their 50s when nominated. Only 3 of them took on an incumbent President, Clinton, Carter and Mondale and only 1 of them an incumbent President after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Mondale and he was the previous VP and an experienced party statesman.
    OK...

    So, the average age of a Presidential nominee in the last fifty years is 60.

    The average age of a Presidential candidate facing an incumbent is... 60.

    Presidential candidates facing incumbents were:
    1972   McGovern     59
    1976 Carter 52
    1980 Reagan 69
    1984 Mondale 56
    1992 Clinton 46
    1996 Dole 73
    2004 Kerry 61
    2012 Romney 65
    There is no evidence that facing an incumbent leads to (on average) older nominees.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,343
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    How did the Democrats get themselves lumbered with so many elderly candidates? A lack of successful Governors? It's almost as bad a gerontocracy as Men's Tennis.

    To be fair you have to go back to 1992 to find a Democratic or Republican candidate nominated to take on an incumbent President who was under 60, younger candidates tend to wait until the incumbent President cannot run again
    That's an interesting observation. But remember it's a pretty small dataset. There have only been three times since 1992 that an incumbent has been up for reelection: 1996, 2004, 2012.

    Bob Dole was ancient, while Romney and Kerry were only just the wrong side of 60. Given both nominees last time around were also North of 60, it's not clear there is any real pattern here.
    Bill Clinton is the only candidate under 50 to have taken on an incumbent President in the last 50 years, I think a trend is there
    The problem, I suspect, is that 80+% of presidential candidates in the last 50 years have been above 60, so it's hard to know if it's a real trend or just noise.
    Obama and Bill Clinton were under 50 when they won their party's nominations (as were JFK and FDR going back before that), Nixon, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Bush W and Gore were in their 50s when nominated. Only 3 of them took on an incumbent President, Clinton, Carter and Mondale and only 1 of them an incumbent President after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Mondale and he was the previous VP and an experienced party statesman.
    OK...

    So, the average age of a Presidential nominee in the last fifty years is 60.

    The average age of a Presidential candidate facing an incumbent is... 60.

    Presidential candidates facing incumbents were:
    1972   McGovern     59
    1976 Carter 52
    1980 Reagan 69
    1984 Mondale 56
    1992 Clinton 46
    1996 Dole 73
    2004 Kerry 61
    2012 Romney 65
    There is no evidence that facing an incumbent leads to (on average) older nominees.
    But does it lead to the opposition party going girls the safe bet? I guess that is a very subjective question.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 51,952
    RobD said:

    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    Are people really clamouring for more constitutional tinkering? :p
    That particular change is a much less controversial bit of tinkering - see many conservatives when the HoL frustrates them - but of course the controversy would come depending on what, if anything, she planned to replace it with.

    One of those changes which has agreement from plenty on left and right but in practice has been too awkward to manage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 51,952
    Turns out the former Pope is still going and not keeping quiet either - no way that retired popes weighing in on matters being considered by reigning popes could cause problems in the future, no sir.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51086626
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 51,952
    I see Long-Bailey has stated shes annoyed at being called the continuity Corbyn candidate. I find that a bit irritating and disingenuous - if you go so far as to literally rate Corbyn as perfect when scoring him out of ten you cannot honestly object to being labelled as his continuity candidate.

    So sorry to say she is being dishonest.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,431
    kle4 said:

    Turns out the former Pope is still going and not keeping quiet either - no way that retired popes weighing in on matters being considered by reigning popes could cause problems in the future, no sir.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51086626

    That was not part of the deal - at most Benedict could urge Francis to "consider very carefully" allowing priests in the Amazon to marry - but telling him its 'incompatible' with ministry is going too far. If hope Francis does it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,431
    kle4 said:

    I see Long-Bailey has stated shes annoyed at being called the continuity Corbyn candidate. I find that a bit irritating and disingenuous - if you go so far as to literally rate Corbyn as perfect when scoring him out of ten you cannot honestly object to being labelled as his continuity candidate.

    So sorry to say she is being dishonest.


    She's "got previous":

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/another-tall-tale-from-long-bailey-38ff9bc9j
  • Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    That sells it for white van man in Stoke on Trent. What a moron!
    She is running to win amongst the massively middle class, metropolitan activist membership not Stoke.
    If she wants to ignore white van man in Stoke on Trent she will win like Jeremy!

    Long Bailey, should be Long Face, she always looks miserable.
    Who wouldn't be ... having not long ago been the odds-on favourite and now given very little chance of winning the top job?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240
    As aside, 6% is too skinny for Pete Buttigieg. He has a fantastic ground game in Iowa. He was equal top of the poll there in YouGov last week, and topped the poll in one of the two New Hampshire polls published in the last week.

    His path to the Presidency is a lot, lot simpler than Michael Bloomberg's (being, simply, win Iowa and New Hampshire and take the moderate mantle from Biden). I would rate him as a 14-18% chance.

    In fact, I would say he's passed Warren in likelihood in the last week, as she's slumped in both Iowa and NH. Although she still looks a bit skinny at 11%.

    Bloomberg's only chance is if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and every moderate performs poorly. As in, Biden second in both doesn't do it. He needs the moderates to end up with essentially no delegates. It's possible, but unlikely. That's a narrow, narrow path to the nomination.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,390
    Next Irish GE - Most seats - best prices

    Fianna Fáil 4/5
    Fine Gael EVS
    Sinn Féin 50/1
    Greens 125/1
    Labour 500/1
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,310
    Interesting story in the Guardian about 'Families sending relatives with dementia to Thailand for care'.
    I've been 'threatened' with that, and I can think of worse fates.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,240
    Totally off topic, I'm really enjoying The Three Body Problem
  • kle4 said:

    I see Long-Bailey has stated shes annoyed at being called the continuity Corbyn candidate. I find that a bit irritating and disingenuous - if you go so far as to literally rate Corbyn as perfect when scoring him out of ten you cannot honestly object to being labelled as his continuity candidate.

    So sorry to say she is being dishonest.

    RLB said Jeremy is 10/10 so it is a policy problem, especially around Brexit.

    And if she wants to change policy, then while she may be Continuity Corbyn (although the man himself preferred Laura Pidcock as next leader) she is perhaps not Continuity Corbynism.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,593
    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Try not so write ignorant shit all your life.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 1,223
    edited January 13
    Are we still expecting bad news for Bernie Sanders this week or was that just President Trump randomly tweeting conspiracy theories about opponents, Iran and snow of all things?
    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-white-house-says-its-snowing-dc-nobody-else-sees-it-1481748
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,844
    matt said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Try not so write ignorant shit all your life.
    Try to rebut the point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 23,115

    Interesting story in the Guardian about 'Families sending relatives with dementia to Thailand for care'.
    I've been 'threatened' with that, and I can think of worse fates.

    Single airfares are so expensive.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 13,089
    Dura_Ace said:

    viewcode said:



    Fair enough. Consider the statement modified to include "...and all people trained adequately and quicker..." and "...all equipment upgraded to the latest variant..." and "...all availability rates to be 80% or over..." and "...all activities to be frequently rehearsed via exercises..." and so on. But I didn't want to swamp the OP.

    If defence policy were about providing defence capability, rather than salving national vanity or job creation exercises, then there is one immediate action that the MoD could take to improve the situation. They should accept that Carrier Strike, like the Trident boats, is not a sovereign capability, close down 207 Squadron and move all F-35B type conversion to VMFAT-501 with the USMC. This would free up 8-14 jets and the most experienced pilots for actual operations. It would be expensive but frankly you get what you pay for.

    The tories don't have the emotional robustness to defend such a move from the Mail Online comments section so it's not going to happen.
    There was this interesting case for selling the carriers yesterday, so the money could go to the Army. I am not convinced, but interested in your thoughts.



  • mattmatt Posts: 3,593

    matt said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Try not so write ignorant shit all your life.
    Try to rebut the point.
    There is no point, it just putting airline failure and Brexit in the same sentence and assuming a direct causal link.
  • Boris has sold NI Army veterans down the river according to the Sun.

    BORIS Johnson has sparked a backlash from Tory MPs after it emerged the smallprint of his deal to restore power-sharing in Northern Ireland risks opening up new Troubles probes into thousands of veterans.

    The Government’s New Decade, New Approach agreement that persuaded warring Northern Irish parties to restore the Stormont executive for the first time in three years promised to deal address “legacy issues” within 100 days.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10723746/boris-johnson-power-share-deal-northern-ireland-veterans/

    (aside: is smallprint one word now?)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,310
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting story in the Guardian about 'Families sending relatives with dementia to Thailand for care'.
    I've been 'threatened' with that, and I can think of worse fates.

    Single airfares are so expensive.
    Not really.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 23,115
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Warren is polling higher than Bloomberg with Democrats and most of her voters will go to Bloomberg

    Eh?

    Most Warren voters will not go to Bloomberg.
    Sorry, meant Sanders
    I agree that Sanders will benefit more than any other candidate from the departure of Warren.

    But it's also worth remembering that Biden benefits most from the departures of Buttigieg, Booker, Klobuchar, Yang, and Steyer.

    The moderate side of the race is much more crowded than the socialist side. This gives Sanders an advantage in the early states, but it becomes much harder for him when he (ultimately) finds himself against a single centrist.
    I don’t see Steyer sticking around.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,442
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hope Sanders doesn't get it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,954

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Given BMI ceased operations in 2012 that was remarkably prescient of them!
    Are flyBMI & BMIbaby different or the same?
    Different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flybmi

    And Monarch (Charter Airline > Loco) and Thomas Cook (High St Holiday sales vs online) were as much victims of failing business models as anything else.
    Ain't that the truth? Brexit will see a lot of business models failing.
  • FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Given BMI ceased operations in 2012 that was remarkably prescient of them!
    Are flyBMI & BMIbaby different or the same?
    Different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flybmi

    And Monarch (Charter Airline > Loco) and Thomas Cook (High St Holiday sales vs online) were as much victims of failing business models as anything else.
    Ain't that the truth? Brexit will see a lot of business models failing.
    You think the decline of the high street is Brexit related?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,299
    Foxy said:


    There was this interesting case for selling the carriers yesterday, so the money could go to the Army. I am not convinced, but interested in your thoughts.



    Pinstripedline is an MoD astroturfing operation with multiple authors so if it is mentioned on there they are definitely thinking about it.

    There are two problems with the Carrier Strike program as currently envisioned (apart from the ridiculous cost):

    1. We're only playing with half a golf bag. Even when it's operational the CSG will have no offensive electronic warfare or suppression of enemy air defence capabilities. So you can only use it in permissive theatres where air dominance is established. Against contested air space without a coalition making up the gaps it's not much use.

    2. The carriers have completely hollowed out the RN. As the program is highly visible it's too big to fail and has had ever possible technical and engineering resource thrown at it. This has led to the following emerging problems for the rest of the fleet:

    - PIP program for T45 running way behind schedule. The first one (Dauntless) has taken nearly 6 years and isn't finished yet. There's another five to do.
    - Vanguard refit is also delayed putting massive strain on the other three boats to maintain the at sea deterrent force. Victorious is soon due for refit but will have to keep patrolling in its current dilapidated date. No worries, it's only a nuclear powered boomer with live weapons on board. What could go wrong?
    - The 4th Astute boat (Audacious) is two years behind schedule. The seas will be boiled dry by climate change by the time the remaining three are in service.
    - T23 LIFEX is behind schedule (seeing a recurrent theme?) with 7 hulls tied up at Devonport.
    - Tidespring went into Cammell Laird a year ago for hull inspection and never came out. Presume she's fucked.
    - RFA Fort Victoria (vital for CSG) also went into CL for some minor work after refit and there she stays in dry dock 6 months later.

    I suspect the politically expedient way out of this mess will be to hold PoW at 'extended readiness' in Pompey. ie forget about it except for stealing parts off it.

    The SoS Defence Ben "Swain" Wallace is no friend of the Senior Service and will definitely shaft it if he can get away with it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,954

    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Given BMI ceased operations in 2012 that was remarkably prescient of them!
    Are flyBMI & BMIbaby different or the same?
    Different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flybmi

    And Monarch (Charter Airline > Loco) and Thomas Cook (High St Holiday sales vs online) were as much victims of failing business models as anything else.
    Ain't that the truth? Brexit will see a lot of business models failing.
    You think the decline of the high street is Brexit related?
    Not particularly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 33,448
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    viewcode said:



    Fair enough. Consider the statement modified to include "...and all people trained adequately and quicker..." and "...all equipment upgraded to the latest variant..." and "...all availability rates to be 80% or over..." and "...all activities to be frequently rehearsed via exercises..." and so on. But I didn't want to swamp the OP.

    If defence policy were about providing defence capability, rather than salving national vanity or job creation exercises, then there is one immediate action that the MoD could take to improve the situation. They should accept that Carrier Strike, like the Trident boats, is not a sovereign capability, close down 207 Squadron and move all F-35B type conversion to VMFAT-501 with the USMC. This would free up 8-14 jets and the most experienced pilots for actual operations. It would be expensive but frankly you get what you pay for.

    The tories don't have the emotional robustness to defend such a move from the Mail Online comments section so it's not going to happen.
    There was this interesting case for selling the carriers yesterday, so the money could go to the Army. I am not convinced, but interested in your thoughts.



    We’ve been making major cuts to the surface fleet for over 30 years.

    There are barely a dozen active escort vessels at the moment, and we can scarcely defend our sea lanes and shipping. And to get anywhere with any form of army we need a navy, because island.

    Terrible idea.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,741

    Telegraph:

    "I will abolish House of Lords if I become PM, says Rebecca Long-Bailey"

    That sells it for white van man in Stoke on Trent. What a moron!
    She is running to win amongst the massively middle class, metropolitan activist membership not Stoke.
    The two constituencies are polar opposites. What is needed to become Labour leader with the membrship obliges you to then have to look like an untrustworthy twat with the now highly suspicious wider electorate. Whilst in turn then pissing off the membership.

    Such is the measure of what Corbyn has achieved.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,897
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting story in the Guardian about 'Families sending relatives with dementia to Thailand for care'.
    I've been 'threatened' with that, and I can think of worse fates.

    Single airfares are so expensive.
    SeanT or whatever he calls himself at the moment can offer good advice on what Thailand offeres older men
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,897
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting story in the Guardian about 'Families sending relatives with dementia to Thailand for care'.
    I've been 'threatened' with that, and I can think of worse fates.

    Single airfares are so expensive.
    SeanT or whatever he calls himself at the moment can offer good advice on what Thailand offeres older men
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 910
    These two aircraft carriers were a Gordin Brown lunacy. Planes cannot land on them. There are not enogh sailors and so on and so forth. I was never more delighted when the idiot was booted out.
  • FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Given BMI ceased operations in 2012 that was remarkably prescient of them!
    Are flyBMI & BMIbaby different or the same?
    Different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flybmi

    And Monarch (Charter Airline > Loco) and Thomas Cook (High St Holiday sales vs online) were as much victims of failing business models as anything else.
    Ain't that the truth? Brexit will see a lot of business models failing.
    You think the decline of the high street is Brexit related?
    Wasn't this thread about the failure of several airlines, not the high street?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,431
    matt said:

    matt said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Try not so write ignorant shit all your life.
    Try to rebut the point.
    There is no point, it just putting airline failure and Brexit in the same sentence and assuming a direct causal link.
    Management of ailing business;

    1) Blame failing business model for which you are responsible, or

    2) Blame external factor for which you are not responsible (but has somehow, mysteriously not driven your rivals to the wall..)
  • These two aircraft carriers were a Gordin Brown lunacy. Planes cannot land on them. There are not enogh sailors and so on and so forth. I was never more delighted when the idiot was booted out.

    10 years of Conservative hegemony and still blaming Gordon Brown? According to Wikipedia, the contract for the new carriers was announced on 25 July 2007, when Brown had been prime minister for less than a month.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Elizabeth-class_aircraft_carrier


  • matt said:

    matt said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Goodness, Brexit doesn't help airlines.

    There's fewer people going on holiday in the passed few years.
    Flybe will be the 4th British airline that Brexit has destroyed after Monarch, Cello and Thomas Cook.

    Edit: 5th. Forgot BMI.
    Try not so write ignorant shit all your life.
    Try to rebut the point.
    There is no point, it just putting airline failure and Brexit in the same sentence and assuming a direct causal link.
    Management of ailing business;

    1) Blame failing business model for which you are responsible, or

    2) Blame external factor for which you are not responsible (but has somehow, mysteriously not driven your rivals to the wall..)
    In this case, and in this thread, five airlines are named. How is this "mysteriously not driven your rivals to the wall"?
  • eekeek Posts: 6,871

    These two aircraft carriers were a Gordin Brown lunacy. Planes cannot land on them. There are not enogh sailors and so on and so forth. I was never more delighted when the idiot was booted out.

    10 years of Conservative hegemony and still blaming Gordon Brown? According to Wikipedia, the contract for the new carriers was announced on 25 July 2007, when Brown had been prime minister for less than a month.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Elizabeth-class_aircraft_carrier


    Gordon Brown was in the Treasury before then - he could have stopped them if he wanted to.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,844
    Keir Starmer in favour of Proportional Representation by the Single Transferable Vote?
    “So many people vote and it doesn’t count, and we can’t go on like that - because progressive politics requires people’s votes to actually count. So I would want to look at this. The only caveat I’ve got is that I also genuinely believe that you need a representative in each area who is there to represent the people in that area and to act on their behalf."
This discussion has been closed.