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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie and Buttigieg the main betting gainers following the ov

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie and Buttigieg the main betting gainers following the overnight Iowa debate

The debate is over and the general verdict is that none of the contenders had a standout performance. The Betfair market shows Buttigieg getting the biggest uplift and squeezing past Biden. What was interesting is that those who’ve seen all the debates seemed to be taking a different view than those just new to this one. The view of Buttigieg was that he was just like he has been seen before. Newcomers to watching the debates seemed more impressed This took place in Iowa where on February 3rd we have the caucuses and my guess is that for many likely participants would have been watching a WH2020 debate for the first time even though they started last June.

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807
    Did Bernie do himself any good during the spat with Warren ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,370
    Nigelb said:

    Did Bernie do himself any good during the spat with Warren ?

    The polling suggests Warren gained from Bernie, but I'm not convinced.

    My big take away is that Klobuchar failed to make an impact. She was great in December, but this time, meh...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,370
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did Bernie do himself any good during the spat with Warren ?

    The polling suggests Warren gained from Bernie, but I'm not convinced.

    My big take away is that Klobuchar failed to make an impact. She was great in December, but this time, meh...
    Biden was weaker than December, too.
    Buttigieg was typically articulate, but I think he may be too moderate for the Democrats this time around.
    Sanders had passion, but seemed older than previously.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 1,949
    edited January 15
    Good morning all.

    This is a betting site and it's right and proper that the Dems leadership features, as well as the presidential election itself and associated elections.

    However, be in little doubt that Donald Trump is heading for a second term. It's a shoo-in and he will get a thumping majority.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,370

    Good morning all.

    This is a betting site and it's right and proper that the Dems leadership features, as well as the presidential election itself and associated elections.

    However, be in little doubt that Donald Trump is heading for a second term. It's a shoo-in and he will get a thumping majority.

    Which states do you think will flip from Democrat to Republican? I can see Virginia and Nevada being shots for the Republicans, but that's about it. (Indeed, I could see Trump improving on his 2016 vote tally, but losing Wisconsin and Arizona).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did Bernie do himself any good during the spat with Warren ?

    The polling suggests Warren gained from Bernie, but I'm not convinced.

    My big take away is that Klobuchar failed to make an impact. She was great in December, but this time, meh...
    Biden was weaker than December, too.
    Buttigieg was typically articulate, but I think he may be too moderate for the Democrats this time around.
    Sanders had passion, but seemed older than previously.
    So basically, you hated them all. :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807
    rcs1000 said:

    Good morning all.

    This is a betting site and it's right and proper that the Dems leadership features, as well as the presidential election itself and associated elections.

    However, be in little doubt that Donald Trump is heading for a second term. It's a shoo-in and he will get a thumping majority.

    Which states do you think will flip from Democrat to Republican? I can see Virginia and Nevada being shots for the Republicans, but that's about it. (Indeed, I could see Trump improving on his 2016 vote tally, but losing Wisconsin and Arizona).
    I don’t think the analysis stoops to that level of detail.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,370
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did Bernie do himself any good during the spat with Warren ?

    The polling suggests Warren gained from Bernie, but I'm not convinced.

    My big take away is that Klobuchar failed to make an impact. She was great in December, but this time, meh...
    Biden was weaker than December, too.
    Buttigieg was typically articulate, but I think he may be too moderate for the Democrats this time around.
    Sanders had passion, but seemed older than previously.
    So basically, you hated them all. :smile:
    If I had a vote, it would be for Klobuchar. Then a toss up between Warren and Buttigieg. Then Biden. Lastly one of Steyer and Sanders.

    I think Buttigieg is the Democrat that Trump should fear
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did Bernie do himself any good during the spat with Warren ?

    The polling suggests Warren gained from Bernie, but I'm not convinced.

    My big take away is that Klobuchar failed to make an impact. She was great in December, but this time, meh...
    Biden was weaker than December, too.
    Buttigieg was typically articulate, but I think he may be too moderate for the Democrats this time around.
    Sanders had passion, but seemed older than previously.
    So basically, you hated them all. :smile:
    If I had a vote, it would be for Klobuchar. Then a toss up between Warren and Buttigieg. Then Biden. Lastly one of Steyer and Sanders.

    I think Buttigieg is the Democrat that Trump should fear
    His prospects of the nomination look fairly slim, though. 10%, perhaps, ahead of the caucus vote ?

    Klobuchar deserves to have done better, but the numbers for her look stubbornly flat.

    And Sanders outraised them all again in donations during the debate...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,370
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did Bernie do himself any good during the spat with Warren ?

    The polling suggests Warren gained from Bernie, but I'm not convinced.

    My big take away is that Klobuchar failed to make an impact. She was great in December, but this time, meh...
    Biden was weaker than December, too.
    Buttigieg was typically articulate, but I think he may be too moderate for the Democrats this time around.
    Sanders had passion, but seemed older than previously.
    So basically, you hated them all. :smile:
    If I had a vote, it would be for Klobuchar. Then a toss up between Warren and Buttigieg. Then Biden. Lastly one of Steyer and Sanders.

    I think Buttigieg is the Democrat that Trump should fear
    His prospects of the nomination look fairly slim, though. 10%, perhaps, ahead of the caucus vote ?

    Klobuchar deserves to have done better, but the numbers for her look stubbornly flat.

    And Sanders outraised them all again in donations during the debate...
    All those things are true.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did Bernie do himself any good during the spat with Warren ?

    The polling suggests Warren gained from Bernie, but I'm not convinced.

    My big take away is that Klobuchar failed to make an impact. She was great in December, but this time, meh...
    Biden was weaker than December, too.
    Buttigieg was typically articulate, but I think he may be too moderate for the Democrats this time around.
    Sanders had passion, but seemed older than previously.
    So basically, you hated them all. :smile:
    If I had a vote, it would be for Klobuchar. Then a toss up between Warren and Buttigieg. Then Biden. Lastly one of Steyer and Sanders.

    I think Buttigieg is the Democrat that Trump should fear
    His prospects of the nomination look fairly slim, though. 10%, perhaps, ahead of the caucus vote ?

    Klobuchar deserves to have done better, but the numbers for her look stubbornly flat.

    And Sanders outraised them all again in donations during the debate...
    All those things are true.
    Yeah, not exactly sticking my neck out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,079
    Back last year both myself and @rcs1000 thought Biden wouldn't make it to Iowa.

    We were wrong.

    I wonder though if the Trump Ukraine scandal played a party. If Biden had dropped out it would look like an admission of Trump's conspiracy theories, so Biden stayed in and showed he had a decent base there work with, bigger than I thought he did.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 33,613
    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,498
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Royale, yes and no. Sanders was very close to beating Clinton early on, some very tight results just happened to fall her way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729

    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.

    It comes back to the Iraq war: https://outline.com/XZCKzH

    Sanders was against from the start, Biden supported the President. It seems remarkable this is still being debated in 2020 but it is. Hopefully Labour leadership contenders in 2035 will not still be obsessing about where they were on Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 25,389
    DavidL said:

    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.

    It comes back to the Iraq war: https://outline.com/XZCKzH

    Sanders was against from the start, Biden supported the President. It seems remarkable this is still being debated in 2020 but it is. Hopefully Labour leadership contenders in 2035 will not still be obsessing about where they were on Brexit.
    John Kerry’s record in Vietnam was still an issue in 2005.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.

    It comes back to the Iraq war: https://outline.com/XZCKzH

    Sanders was against from the start, Biden supported the President. It seems remarkable this is still being debated in 2020 but it is. Hopefully Labour leadership contenders in 2035 will not still be obsessing about where they were on Brexit.
    John Kerry’s record in Vietnam was still an issue in 2005.
    American politics never ceases to amaze but that still stands out. A man who had served his country loyally and at some personal risk who might just have gilded the lily a tad against a draft dodger and its the former that has the problem! Just incredible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    The simple reality is that without the US the JCPOA is completely pointless whatever the Europeans think or want. US sanctions are crippling Iran by making it impossible for them to access international banking with anyone who trades in the US and the Europeans can't do anything about it. So we either have no deal or a new deal. Boris is pushing for a new deal. He's right to do so.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    The Dems’ hopes rest on Sanders losing the race for the nomination. If he wins it, pile on Trumpton, as it will be a cakewalk for him.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,530
    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

  • Dura_Ace said:
    But it does upset the right people. 75% of the joy of Brexit is that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 25,389
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.

    It comes back to the Iraq war: https://outline.com/XZCKzH

    Sanders was against from the start, Biden supported the President. It seems remarkable this is still being debated in 2020 but it is. Hopefully Labour leadership contenders in 2035 will not still be obsessing about where they were on Brexit.
    John Kerry’s record in Vietnam was still an issue in 2005.
    American politics never ceases to amaze but that still stands out. A man who had served his country loyally and at some personal risk who might just have gilded the lily a tad against a draft dodger and its the former that has the problem! Just incredible.
    Well, yes. But what was more amazing in many ways was that the vets were backing the draft dodger. The whole situation was totally farcical.

    (And I made a typo - I meant 2004, of course.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729

    The Dems’ hopes rest on Sanders losing the race for the nomination. If he wins it, pile on Trumpton, as it will be a cakewalk for him.

    I agree. I actually think Trump will win against any of those in the current field but Sanders would be easy.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.

    Sorry, I see you have already made the same point.

    Spot on.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,530

    Dura_Ace said:
    But it does upset the right people. 75% of the joy of Brexit is that.
    Its "the bus" all over again.....the Bourbons walk among us yet......
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    Is he actually called Graham Grant?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    The son of a friend of mine didn't quite meet his conditional offer and entered clearing. He contacted a University about a course he was interested in and was asked straight out did he have an English address. As he didn't he didn't get in.

    I think it is inevitable and correct that the State only funds a certain number of places but it is completely unfair that those who do not qualify for such a supported place cannot apply on the same basis as those in rUK. But Salmond's stone is more important than treating Scottish students fairly.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 391
    Bernies price has risen since the debate so the header doesn’t make sense any more.

  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.

    It comes back to the Iraq war: https://outline.com/XZCKzH

    Sanders was against from the start, Biden supported the President. It seems remarkable this is still being debated in 2020 but it is. Hopefully Labour leadership contenders in 2035 will not still be obsessing about where they were on Brexit.
    John Kerry’s record in Vietnam was still an issue in 2005.
    American politics never ceases to amaze but that still stands out. A man who had served his country loyally and at some personal risk who might just have gilded the lily a tad against a draft dodger and its the former that has the problem! Just incredible.
    Well, yes. But what was more amazing in many ways was that the vets were backing the draft dodger. The whole situation was totally farcical.

    (And I made a typo - I meant 2004, of course.)
    Shades of 1980 when Evangelicals supported the church-dodging Reagan against Carter who ran Sunday Schools even while president. Mind you last time they supported Trump who has made a fair dent in the Ten Commandments. The serious political point is that convenient demographic labels can be misleading as to what drives voting behaviour.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    Dura_Ace said:
    But it does upset the right people. 75% of the joy of Brexit is that.
    It amused me rather than upset me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    TGOHF666 said:

    Bernies price has risen since the debate so the header doesn’t make sense any more.

    That’s right. Biden now favourite at 2/1.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,498
    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 13,228
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.

    It comes back to the Iraq war: https://outline.com/XZCKzH

    Sanders was against from the start, Biden supported the President. It seems remarkable this is still being debated in 2020 but it is. Hopefully Labour leadership contenders in 2035 will not still be obsessing about where they were on Brexit.
    John Kerry’s record in Vietnam was still an issue in 2005.
    American politics never ceases to amaze but that still stands out. A man who had served his country loyally and at some personal risk who might just have gilded the lily a tad against a draft dodger and its the former that has the problem! Just incredible.
    Well, yes. But what was more amazing in many ways was that the vets were backing the draft dodger. The whole situation was totally farcical.

    (And I made a typo - I meant 2004, of course.)
    Kerry was very good in this speech as a Vietnam vet, but strangely it was his actual service that was the problem not his reaction to it.



    My cousin who was a regular army officer in the Australian army in Vietnam came back equally disillusioned.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 33,613
    FPT - I think Lisa Nandy is the best candidate because she’s the best candidate. I didn’t even know her heritage.

    However, some Labour MP has mentioned she’s a great BAME candidate.

    Given the obsession the Left have with intersectionality and labelling, maybe that’s a better way for her to get votes in that bubble?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    Buttigieg growth again will of course come mainly at the expense of Biden, thus benefiting Sanders
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 381
    All the Democrats needed to do was find a middle of the road state governor with a vaguely presidential look and they could win easily. Instead they have managed to find a bunch of candidates all of whom will likely lose to Trump. Genius.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,689
    "Democratic" centralism in action aka Lenin. Even Paul Mason is having a go at Momentum now:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/14/momentum-accused-labour-leadership-stitch-members-given-choice/

    From behind the paywall:

    "Momentum has been accused of attempting to “stitch up” the Labour leadership contest after balloting its members on whether it should back Rebecca Long-Bailey without offering an alternative. To the fury of senior figures inside the pro-Corbyn campaign group, its 40,000 members were on Tuesday asked to vote “yes or no'' on whether it at as an organisation should support the shadow business secretary’s candidacy. Momentum, whose founder Jon Lansman is backing Ms Long-Bailey, said it would throw its weight behind her should 50 percent of respondents to the survey agree. Labour moderates claimed it was “ridiculous” that members had not been asked their opinion on the four other candidates, pointing out that Momentum had been founded to make Labour more democratic.
    They were joined by Paul Mason, the former BBC journalist and prominent Labour activist, who likened the move to a survey carried out by a “South American dictatorship”. "
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    Alistair said:
    And the Tories won a UK wide majority on their manifesto commitment to block indyref2 in that UK wide election
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    Is he actually called Graham Grant?
    Student to his mates?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819

    One of the ways I could see Trump narrowly winning this year is by the Democrats picking Sanders. It might even lead to a 3rd party candidate standing on top.

    It beggars belief that they’re even considering it.

    Bloomberg will likely go 3rd party in that scenario
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,013

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    Agreed. After winning an election I wouldn't go round in a T-shirt saying "We did it!" or the like - I value friends with different opinions and wouldn't want to rub it in. Leave that stuff to football fans.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Having watched the whole debate my reaction is as follows.

    It was like a repeat of past debates.

    Biden was awful as usual, Bernie as energetic as usual, Warren being the school teacher as usual, everyone essentially repeating their past roles.

    The only single difference was that Sanders and Warren had a spat.

    Therefore I don't expect it will change anything with the exception of the Bernie vs Warren numbers.
    Perhaps Trump may gain some votes out of democrats boring voters to death.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    Is he actually called Graham Grant?
    Student to his mates?
    Any other Viz characters moonlighting as journalists?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,055

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    Agreed. At the level of teasing, sure, but sometimes people seem to genuinely think that's all that's needed to prove worthiness.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    houndtang said:

    All the Democrats needed to do was find a middle of the road state governor with a vaguely presidential look and they could win easily. Instead they have managed to find a bunch of candidates all of whom will likely lose to Trump. Genius.

    There is none.

    Governors have governing records that they can never defend.
    Also because the media is so centralized around the D.C.-N.Y axis no one knows who those Governors are, but they do know about Senators and New York politicians.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,800
    Same thing as NAFTA and the USMCA then, broadly similar terms with a new name in order to humour the big fat idiot in the Whitehouse.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    "Democratic" centralism in action aka Lenin. Even Paul Mason is having a go at Momentum now:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/14/momentum-accused-labour-leadership-stitch-members-given-choice/

    From behind the paywall:

    "Momentum has been accused of attempting to “stitch up” the Labour leadership contest after balloting its members on whether it should back Rebecca Long-Bailey without offering an alternative. To the fury of senior figures inside the pro-Corbyn campaign group, its 40,000 members were on Tuesday asked to vote “yes or no'' on whether it at as an organisation should support the shadow business secretary’s candidacy. Momentum, whose founder Jon Lansman is backing Ms Long-Bailey, said it would throw its weight behind her should 50 percent of respondents to the survey agree. Labour moderates claimed it was “ridiculous” that members had not been asked their opinion on the four other candidates, pointing out that Momentum had been founded to make Labour more democratic.
    They were joined by Paul Mason, the former BBC journalist and prominent Labour activist, who likened the move to a survey carried out by a “South American dictatorship”. "

    The far left is showing all the hallmarks of a faction that thinks it’s going to lose power. Perhaps the invincibility of the Corbynite wing of the party was overdone after all?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    Is he actually called Graham Grant?
    Student to his mates?
    Exactly! 😃
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,329

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    Is he actually called Graham Grant?
    Student to his mates?
    Any other Viz characters moonlighting as journalists?
    Boris Johnson/Aldridge Prior

    Max Hastings/Billy Britain

    Christopher Hitchens/The Male Online

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    Is he actually called Graham Grant?
    Student to his mates?
    Any other Viz characters moonlighting as journalists?
    Dunno about hacks but Mrs Brady Old Lady is or was chairman of the 1922 Committee.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    Is he actually called Graham Grant?
    Student to his mates?
    Any other Viz characters moonlighting as journalists?
    I have my suspicions about the Fat Slags.....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    Dura_Ace said:

    "Free" for some.....but nothing at all for nearly half:

    Is he actually called Graham Grant?
    Student to his mates?
    Any other Viz characters moonlighting as journalists?
    Boris Johnson/Aldridge Prior

    Max Hastings/Billy Britain

    Christopher Hitchens/The Male Online

    Piers Morgan/Roger Mellie ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    I suspect Henry Blofeld would have dutifully accepted the crown as a semi-accidental Finbar Saunders
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,626
    Opening The Times online it’s one of the first things that one sees.

    As an aside, if The Guardian has remained The Manchester Guardian, perhaps national reporting would be very different today.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 498
    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,689

    FPT - I think Lisa Nandy is the best candidate because she’s the best candidate. I didn’t even know her heritage.

    However, some Labour MP has mentioned she’s a great BAME candidate.

    Given the obsession the Left have with intersectionality and labelling, maybe that’s a better way for her to get votes in that bubble?

    Nandy is a serious good value bet at best odds of 7/1 (Paddy Power). Apart from the GMB rumours, there is also talk that McCluskey had a meeting to sound her out, so it is not inconceivable that Unite could also back her over Long-Bailey. Remember that McCluskey is seriously pissed off that there was no alternative to Long-Bailey from the far left, and that Nandy was always seen as being on the left of the PLP. In addition Nandy's more equivocal stance on Brexit is closer to McCluskey's position than is that of Long-Bailey.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    HYUFD said:
    I love it that the author of these polls thinks that telling us that 46 is 5 more than 41 is helpful. I first assumed that these were in fact movements from their last effort but apparently not.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    I regret to inform you that there are folk among us less high minded than your good self. The crowing, triumphalist Visigoths are at the gate, ravening for the blood and tears of the vanquished.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,626
    alex_ said:

    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!

    Should your ring-fenced tax concept also apply to the self-employed? It’s convenient working capital until due.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    HYUFD said:
    One of my clients tried that wheeze. The result was that scores of back office staff populated the northern ‘HQ’ while all the decision-makers remained in the ‘small office’ in central London. That is precisely what will happen here.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,329
    HYUFD said:
    Their new spiritual home and cultural touchstone beckons.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    HYUFD said:
    Hard to argue against Biden on those numbers.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,239

    HYUFD said:
    One of my clients tried that wheeze. The result was that scores of back office staff populated the northern ‘HQ’ while all the decision-makers remained in the ‘small office’ in central London. That is precisely what will happen here.
    I would have thought so.

    I think D Cummings is the correct yardstick for this. Will he move?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,626

    HYUFD said:
    One of my clients tried that wheeze. The result was that scores of back office staff populated the northern ‘HQ’ while all the decision-makers remained in the ‘small office’ in central London. That is precisely what will happen here.
    Yet the proposed approach is precisely what Rolls-Royce does. Small office in Kings Cross, key decision-makers in Derby.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    matt said:

    HYUFD said:
    One of my clients tried that wheeze. The result was that scores of back office staff populated the northern ‘HQ’ while all the decision-makers remained in the ‘small office’ in central London. That is precisely what will happen here.
    Yet the proposed approach is precisely what Rolls-Royce does. Small office in Kings Cross, key decision-makers in Derby.
    Yes, although Rolls-Royce isn’t quite as umbilically connected to Westminster as the party of government, is it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:
    One of my clients tried that wheeze. The result was that scores of back office staff populated the northern ‘HQ’ while all the decision-makers remained in the ‘small office’ in central London. That is precisely what will happen here.
    Yet the proposed approach is precisely what Rolls-Royce does. Small office in Kings Cross, key decision-makers in Derby.
    Yes, although Rolls-Royce isn’t quite as umbilically connected to Westminster as the party of government, is it?
    Wait til the Lobby briefings are held in Hartlepool......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    alex_ said:

    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!

    AIUI payment of the tax is being deferred rather than written off. But it still looks like State Aid to me. It may be as well that the jurisdiction of the CJEU ends at the end of the month. Flybe is an important provider of regional flights in Scotland. It is important that these services are still available.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!

    AIUI payment of the tax is being deferred rather than written off. But it still looks like State Aid to me. It may be as well that the jurisdiction of the CJEU ends at the end of the month. Flybe is an important provider of regional flights in Scotland. It is important that these services are still available.
    Flybe is one of those things where you sit in London or the midlands and go - not important. But if you live in the Highlands or Devon / Cornwall it's the only way to get to where you want without 2 additional days of travel.

    And if you have to subsidise it to keep it going I don't think any Government would have any choice but to do so.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,530

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    The crowing, triumphalist Visigoths are at the gate, ravening for the blood and tears of the vanquished.
    Some of them are in government....

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    HYUFD said:
    Genuinely not sure about the Institution. Huge fan of the Queen though.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,661

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    I regret to inform you that there are folk among us less high minded than your good self. The crowing, triumphalist Visigoths are at the gate, ravening for the blood and tears of the vanquished.
    I thought Nicola's exuberance at Jo Swinson's defeat was a tad excessive but even I would resile at the description of her as a crowing, triumphalist Visgoth. But you have a magnificent, much envied way with words.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    The crowing, triumphalist Visigoths are at the gate, ravening for the blood and tears of the vanquished.
    Some of them are in government....

    If you want to identify SCons and Unionists as the vanquished, I shan't stand in your way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!

    AIUI payment of the tax is being deferred rather than written off. But it still looks like State Aid to me. It may be as well that the jurisdiction of the CJEU ends at the end of the month. Flybe is an important provider of regional flights in Scotland. It is important that these services are still available.
    Flybe is one of those things where you sit in London or the midlands and go - not important. But if you live in the Highlands or Devon / Cornwall it's the only way to get to where you want without 2 additional days of travel.

    And if you have to subsidise it to keep it going I don't think any Government would have any choice but to do so.
    Yep. Its a price you pay for having a truly crap rail service. Dundee has been casting about trying to get another airline to take on direct flights to London. Even with very cheap landing fees here its proven very difficult to make a go of this and previous efforts have not lasted long. The landing fees at City are killing for a marginal service.
  • isamisam Posts: 29,895
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    Genuinely not sure about the Institution. Huge fan of the Queen though.
    52-48?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    Genuinely not sure about the Institution. Huge fan of the Queen though.
    52-48?
    52% 13%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    The crowing, triumphalist Visigoths are at the gate, ravening for the blood and tears of the vanquished.
    Some of them are in government....

    I'm not sure Boris needs the invitation of a T-shirt.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,530

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    The crowing, triumphalist Visigoths are at the gate, ravening for the blood and tears of the vanquished.
    Some of them are in government....

    If you want to identify SCons and Unionists as the vanquished, I shan't stand in your way.
    It's the Scottish electorate that's standing in Ms Sturgeon's way.....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,329
    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!

    AIUI payment of the tax is being deferred rather than written off. But it still looks like State Aid to me. It may be as well that the jurisdiction of the CJEU ends at the end of the month. Flybe is an important provider of regional flights in Scotland. It is important that these services are still available.
    The tories are displaying the zeal of the recent convert when it comes to throwing taxpayers' money at a nonviable business.

    Corbyn won the argument.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,239
    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!

    AIUI payment of the tax is being deferred rather than written off. But it still looks like State Aid to me. It may be as well that the jurisdiction of the CJEU ends at the end of the month. Flybe is an important provider of regional flights in Scotland. It is important that these services are still available.
    3 months' deferment unlikely to have raised too many eyebrows. Clearly long term help for FlyBe is another matter.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    The Times covers the story in detail.

    The police, IMO, are not fit for purpose. Root and branch reform of them is needed starting with (a) teaching them the basic principles underpinning criminal law; and (b) investigative tradecraft. They don’t understand the former and are rubbish at the latter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864

    I'm puzzled by people who are delighted when the 'right kind of people' are upset by things.

    Fools can be right sometimes. The wise can err. And doing things or being pleased that they are done because it annoys those with differing views just seems an odd motivation to me.

    The crowing, triumphalist Visigoths are at the gate, ravening for the blood and tears of the vanquished.
    Some of them are in government....

    If you want to identify SCons and Unionists as the vanquished, I shan't stand in your way.
    It's the Scottish electorate that's standing in Ms Sturgeon's way.....
    Yep, just sickening how the Scottish electorate *checks notes* decided to stop another independence referendum by voting for Stephen Kerr.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 381
    speedy2 said:

    houndtang said:

    All the Democrats needed to do was find a middle of the road state governor with a vaguely presidential look and they could win easily. Instead they have managed to find a bunch of candidates all of whom will likely lose to Trump. Genius.

    There is none.

    Governors have governing records that they can never defend.
    Also because the media is so centralized around the D.C.-N.Y axis no one knows who those Governors are, but they do know about Senators and New York politicians.
    You have a point. I just looked at the list of current state governors and Andrew Cuomo was about the only one I'd heard of
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!

    AIUI payment of the tax is being deferred rather than written off. But it still looks like State Aid to me. It may be as well that the jurisdiction of the CJEU ends at the end of the month. Flybe is an important provider of regional flights in Scotland. It is important that these services are still available.
    Flybe is one of those things where you sit in London or the midlands and go - not important. But if you live in the Highlands or Devon / Cornwall it's the only way to get to where you want without 2 additional days of travel.

    And if you have to subsidise it to keep it going I don't think any Government would have any choice but to do so.
    Yep. Its a price you pay for having a truly crap rail service. Dundee has been casting about trying to get another airline to take on direct flights to London. Even with very cheap landing fees here its proven very difficult to make a go of this and previous efforts have not lasted long. The landing fees at City are killing for a marginal service.
    Aren’t we meant to be cutting carbon emissions? Aviation kerosene is exempt from tax, unlike petrol and diesel. Airlines are therefore already subsidised. If they can’t make money on the current basis I don’t see why they should be subsidised even more. And shareholders in FlyBe - like Virgin- have plenty of money to keep FlyBe going instead of putting a hand out to taxpayers.
  • Has Adam Boulton confused CCHQ with GCHQ?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,079
    houndtang said:

    All the Democrats needed to do was find a middle of the road state governor with a vaguely presidential look and they could win easily. Instead they have managed to find a bunch of candidates all of whom will likely lose to Trump. Genius.

    My man Sherrod Brown was the obvious pick. But Biden sucked up all the oxygen for middle of the road white male with a presidential look.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,079
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:
    And the Tories won a UK wide majority on their manifesto commitment to block indyref2 in that UK wide election
    No, clearly the only option was to elect Stephen Kerr. He was not elected, thus IndyRef 2 is Conservative policy.

    Checkmate.
  • CCHQ should move to Sheffield.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,750
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    Re Flybe “rescue”. If, as is reported, this has been done by “letting them off” payment of air passenger duty, surely this is a literal misuse of taxpayer money? Air passenger duty is paid by customers as a supplement to their air fare. The airline only role is to administer collection and payment to the Government. It is at no point “their money”. Arguably it should be held in a separate ring fenced account if their is any suggestion if it being used to subsidise the business. And yet this appears to be in effect what is happening.

    If Flybe doesn’t have to hand it over, then people should get their money back!

    AIUI payment of the tax is being deferred rather than written off. But it still looks like State Aid to me. It may be as well that the jurisdiction of the CJEU ends at the end of the month. Flybe is an important provider of regional flights in Scotland. It is important that these services are still available.
    The tories are displaying the zeal of the recent convert when it comes to throwing taxpayers' money at a nonviable business.

    Corbyn won the argument.
    Thatcher said 'let lame ducks die'. It was harsh if something fulfilled a social purpose. But R4 said that the co-owners have plenty of ££ to bail this airline out. Let them do so.

    Yes, mis-use of taxpayers' ££.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883

    Has Adam Boulton confused CCHQ with GCHQ?

    There's something about this story that is ridiculous, but you aren't going to like what it is Adam.....
This discussion has been closed.