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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember Starmer only got 31% of first choices in the YouGov L

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151

    The dark horse Nandy gallops on...

    Stabledoor status update required....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,388

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    Peter Brookes confirming the reputation of Matt as the only funny political cartoonist working today.

    Humour aside, I am disappointed to see the cartoon employing the "Starmer is boring" trope. He is NOT boring. Where is this thing coming from whereby politicians are expected to be entertainers? I sense it's part of the dumbing down of political discourse and I don't like it. If I want to be entertained I'll put on a DVD or go to a show.

    His speaking style really is quite boring. Sorry. And I write as someone who would like him to WIN the leadership because it would be good to have a sane, decent person leading Her Majesty’s Opposition. Because - who knows - Labour might just win next time.

    But he really is boring on TV. He drones. The same way Boris bumbles..But Boris is funny and watchable.
    Starmer (or whoever wins) should pop down to RADA (other drama schools are available) for a short course in how to speak so people stay awake.
    Indeed. It isn’t that hard to speak in a way that doesn’t kill people with dullness.

    Was Starmer a successful lawyer? I presume he must have been to become DPP. But wow, pity the juries
    "An empty taxi drove up to 10 Downing Street...and Byronic watched as out of it stepped newly elected PM Kier Starmer.”

    KSIDIPM

    Keir Starmer is dull, is PM.
    I wouldn't go as far as actually making that prediction.

    Just pointing out that dull isn't always electoral poison. A certain John Major did pretty well in one election, too.
    Keith Starmer: he aspires to be the next John Major.

    Any ad execs fancy selling that?
    I think Clem Attlee is perhaps the aspiration ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,831

    Quincel said:

    :o

    Japanese striker Kazuyoshi Miura is the ultimate evergreen player. His professional career started in 1986. And he's still going.

    At 52 (he turns 53 in February), Miura has just signed on the dotted line to play in the J1 League, Japan's top division, for the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51123128

    Wow, makes Kimiko Date-Krumm look like she retired early!

    I saw her play Serena Williams in her comeback at a grand slam. She lost, but was really close to winning. Playing from a different era threw Williams off completely, especially in the first set!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimiko_Date
    Talking about a different era in sports, I thought this was a fascinating example of how sport has changed thanks to data analytics. Basically as soon as data scientists had access to shot data, it became clear that the whole base strategy of every team in the NBA was wrong (too many mid range shots, when far superior statistically to attempt 3-point shots even though you miss more in raw % terms).



    Football is behind the curve on this, but catching up fast now. I think in 10 years we will think how shit most teams tactics for the vast majority of the history of the game.
    I can't wait for someone to start getting the message out to fans via pundits. So much commentary is so dumb. Went to watch a match last weekend actually, and the crowd want players to punt it upfield instead of retain possession and pass sideways if necessary. Rarely ever works, punting it, but it's 'positive, attacking football'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    QED you don't quite understand what you are posting. Investment in China is slowing down because there is doubt about the robustness of the regulatory environment and hence investment just about everywhere else has increased. In particular the US; the alternative to London was never going to be Frankfurt. It was (and is) going to be NY or Dublin or once but now not so sure, HK. And so it is proving.
    Tell us more about your “near imperceptible” erections, and your wife’s “near imperceptible” orgasms.
    How would he know? He ain't there.....
    And you know why your wife is so fat don't you.
    That was very funny.
    Once upon a time.
    Too close to the mark... ?
    If you want to tell my wife she's fat, be my guest....
    Perish the thought. And no doubt she'd be horrified by that suggestion.
    Not so much horrified, as reaching for the surgical steel.

    Her Glasgae roots would be showing....
  • TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Can we PLEASE move on from the all-too-easy teasing of angry, jumpng-up-and-down intellectual midgets like Topping? It is unedifying. OK, so he’s not the shapeliest dildo in his wife’s bedside drawer. It’s not his fault,

    Instead we should be focusing on the good news. Because this really is good news for Britain. London is shrugging off Brexit.


    “Saul Klein, a partner at investment firm LocalGlobe and a co-founder of Lovefilm, sees the rise of technology in the UK as akin to an unstoppable force.

    “The secular wave of technology is so huge that it's beyond Brexit,” he says. “If you look at the numbers, since we knew that the country had voted to leave in 2016, every year since then has been a record: More money has gone into the sector, more jobs have been created.”

    Rob Kniaz, a partner at Deliveroo and Babylon backer Hoxton Ventures, is equally upbeat.

    “There’s a bit of an echo chamber among the Twittering classes about the UK being in a doom spiral,” he says in a phone call from Kiev. “It's pleasant to see that the reality is actually not that and despite the naysayers, things are booming.”“

    The gloomsters were wrong. That is a good thing. But this is only London. The rest of the country may be very different....

    Goodnight!

    Don't run away. It is great news that Hoxton Ventures is upbeat. Hoxton Ventures - precisely the demographic that might be affected negatively by Brexit.

    And yes, that was a joke.
    Must have been a different Rob Kniaz who wrote a letter to the Standard warning about Brexit.

    Brexit is a danger to UK start-ups

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/letters/letters-to-the-editor-brexit-is-a-danger-to-uk-startups-a3263106.html

    Be nice to Byronic I think his blow up doll has exploded, again.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,388

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    QED you don't quite understand what you are posting. Investment in China is slowing down because there is doubt about the robustness of the regulatory environment and hence investment just about everywhere else has increased. In particular the US; the alternative to London was never going to be Frankfurt. It was (and is) going to be NY or Dublin or once but now not so sure, HK. And so it is proving.
    Tell us more about your “near imperceptible” erections, and your wife’s “near imperceptible” orgasms.
    How would he know? He ain't there.....
    And you know why your wife is so fat don't you.
    That was very funny.
    Once upon a time.
    Too close to the mark... ?
    If you want to tell my wife she's fat, be my guest....
    Perish the thought. And no doubt she'd be horrified by that suggestion.
    Not so much horrified, as reaching for the surgical steel.
    Her Glasgae roots would be showing....
    Your suggestion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,388
    What on earth is it about Putin that makes Trump such a fan ?

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/15/russian-prime-minister-submits-resignation-to-putin-099230
    ...MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a constitutional overhaul Wednesday to boost the powers of parliament and the Cabinet, a move signalling Putin's intention to carve out a new position for himself after his current term ends.
    Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev submitted his resignation hours after Putin discussed the constitutional amendments during his state of the nation address...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,388
    Did Hickenlooper just raise more for his Senate run than he did in his presidential nomination effort ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/478375-hickenlooper-raised-28-million-for-colorado-senate-bid-in-fourth-quarter-of
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442
    edited January 15

    Is Hodges right? Time to lay RBL?

    Laid her at 3.7. But if I hadn't I would do it again now at 6.4. This is Starmer vs Nandy.

    And 1.25 for Rayner to win Deputy looks terrific.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,213

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Can we PLEASE move on from the all-too-easy teasing of angry, jumpng-up-and-down intellectual midgets like Topping? It is unedifying. OK, so he’s not the shapeliest dildo in his wife’s bedside drawer. It’s not his fault,

    Instead we should be focusing on the good news. Because this really is good news for Britain. London is shrugging off Brexit.


    “Saul Klein, a partner at investment firm LocalGlobe and a co-founder of Lovefilm, sees the rise of technology in the UK as akin to an unstoppable force.

    “The secular wave of technology is so huge that it's beyond Brexit,” he says. “If you look at the numbers, since we knew that the country had voted to leave in 2016, every year since then has been a record: More money has gone into the sector, more jobs have been created.”

    Rob Kniaz, a partner at Deliveroo and Babylon backer Hoxton Ventures, is equally upbeat.

    “There’s a bit of an echo chamber among the Twittering classes about the UK being in a doom spiral,” he says in a phone call from Kiev. “It's pleasant to see that the reality is actually not that and despite the naysayers, things are booming.”“

    The gloomsters were wrong. That is a good thing. But this is only London. The rest of the country may be very different....

    Goodnight!

    Don't run away. It is great news that Hoxton Ventures is upbeat. Hoxton Ventures - precisely the demographic that might be affected negatively by Brexit.

    And yes, that was a joke.
    Must have been a different Rob Kniaz who wrote a letter to the Standard warning about Brexit.

    Brexit is a danger to UK start-ups

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/letters/letters-to-the-editor-brexit-is-a-danger-to-uk-startups-a3263106.html

    Be nice to Byronic I think his blow up doll has exploded, again.
    I try to be. His posts are always good value with a 50:50 split between laughing at and with him.

    And here's something to warm the cockles of his heart. Not that he will notice personally.

    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k
  • Quincel said:

    :o

    Japanese striker Kazuyoshi Miura is the ultimate evergreen player. His professional career started in 1986. And he's still going.

    At 52 (he turns 53 in February), Miura has just signed on the dotted line to play in the J1 League, Japan's top division, for the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51123128

    Wow, makes Kimiko Date-Krumm look like she retired early!

    I saw her play Serena Williams in her comeback at a grand slam. She lost, but was really close to winning. Playing from a different era threw Williams off completely, especially in the first set!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimiko_Date
    Talking about a different era in sports, I thought this was a fascinating example of how sport has changed thanks to data analytics. Basically as soon as data scientists had access to shot data, it became clear that the whole base strategy of every team in the NBA was wrong (too many mid range shots, when far superior statistically to attempt 3-point shots even though you miss more in raw % terms).



    Football is behind the curve on this, but catching up fast now. I think in 10 years we will think how shit most teams tactics for the vast majority of the history of the game.
    There is already a lot of data science in football, much of it originally motivated by betting. Whether this is good for the fan, I'm not sure, as there seems to be a lot more passing sideways now. This (originally German) book gives a wide, non-technical survey.
    Football Hackers: The Science and Art of a Data Revolution
    Biermann, Christoph
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/45029227-football-hackers
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442
    TOPPING said:

    Don't run away. It is great news that Hoxton Ventures is upbeat. Hoxton Ventures - precisely the demographic that might be affected negatively by Brexit.

    And yes, that was a joke.

    It would be ironic in the extreme if Brexit ends up boosting London and hurting the neglected people in neglected places. Would be rather sad too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,837
    Coral cuts odds of Lisa Nandy winning Labour leadership
    The bookmaker has now cut Ms Nandy's odds from 7-1 to 5-1, making her the joint second favourite alongside Rebecca Long-Bailey, with Keir Starmer remaining the favourite at 4-9.

    Telegraph blog
  • isamisam Posts: 30,686
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    :o

    Japanese striker Kazuyoshi Miura is the ultimate evergreen player. His professional career started in 1986. And he's still going.

    At 52 (he turns 53 in February), Miura has just signed on the dotted line to play in the J1 League, Japan's top division, for the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51123128

    Wow, makes Kimiko Date-Krumm look like she retired early!

    I saw her play Serena Williams in her comeback at a grand slam. She lost, but was really close to winning. Playing from a different era threw Williams off completely, especially in the first set!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimiko_Date
    Talking about a different era in sports, I thought this was a fascinating example of how sport has changed thanks to data analytics. Basically as soon as data scientists had access to shot data, it became clear that the whole base strategy of every team in the NBA was wrong (too many mid range shots, when far superior statistically to attempt 3-point shots even though you miss more in raw % terms).



    Football is behind the curve on this, but catching up fast now. I think in 10 years we will think how shit most teams tactics for the vast majority of the history of the game.
    I can't wait for someone to start getting the message out to fans via pundits. So much commentary is so dumb. Went to watch a match last weekend actually, and the crowd want players to punt it upfield instead of retain possession and pass sideways if necessary. Rarely ever works, punting it, but it's 'positive, attacking football'.
    One of the channels should get an analyst on their post match coverage. The only problem is they are insufferably smug, and love telling people how stupid they are. Imagine giving one of the Big Bang Theory nerds some cocaine then getting him to tell Roy Keane how ridiculous he is for wanting a player to show some passion.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Can we PLEASE move on from the all-too-easy teasing of angry, jumpng-up-and-down intellectual midgets like Topping? It is unedifying. OK, so he’s not the shapeliest dildo in his wife’s bedside drawer. It’s not his fault,

    Instead we should be focusing on the good news. Because this really is good news for Britain. London is shrugging off Brexit.


    “Saul Klein, a partner at investment firm LocalGlobe and a co-founder of Lovefilm, sees the rise of technology in the UK as akin to an unstoppable force.

    “The secular wave of technology is so huge that it's beyond Brexit,” he says. “If you look at the numbers, since we knew that the country had voted to leave in 2016, every year since then has been a record: More money has gone into the sector, more jobs have been created.”

    Rob Kniaz, a partner at Deliveroo and Babylon backer Hoxton Ventures, is equally upbeat.

    “There’s a bit of an echo chamber among the Twittering classes about the UK being in a doom spiral,” he says in a phone call from Kiev. “It's pleasant to see that the reality is actually not that and despite the naysayers, things are booming.”“

    The gloomsters were wrong. That is a good thing. But this is only London. The rest of the country may be very different....

    Goodnight!

    Don't run away. It is great news that Hoxton Ventures is upbeat. Hoxton Ventures - precisely the demographic that might be affected negatively by Brexit.

    And yes, that was a joke.
    Must have been a different Rob Kniaz who wrote a letter to the Standard warning about Brexit.

    Brexit is a danger to UK start-ups

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/letters/letters-to-the-editor-brexit-is-a-danger-to-uk-startups-a3263106.html

    Be nice to Byronic I think his blow up doll has exploded, again.
    He wrote that in June 2016. His quotes about Brexit not being a problem, after all, were made today.

    Really.. What is the point in posting this lame-brain piffle.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728
    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    I think 2020 will prove to be a phenomenal year for UK investment, much of it "catch up" after the dithering of the last 2 years. Whether this can be sustained to generate longer term growth and better productivity remains to be seen but FinTech is increasingly becoming another UK specialty.

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    The IQ level on here is low. Bring back Rod Crosby.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,213
    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Can we PLEASE move on from the all-too-easy teasing of angry, jumpng-up-and-down intellectual midgets like Topping? It is unedifying. OK, so he’s not the shapeliest dildo in his wife’s bedside drawer. It’s not his fault,

    Instead we should be focusing on the good news. Because this really is good news for Britain. London is shrugging off Brexit.


    “Saul Klein, a partner at investment firm LocalGlobe and a co-founder of Lovefilm, sees the rise of technology in the UK as akin to an unstoppable force.

    “The secular wave of technology is so huge that it's beyond Brexit,” he says. “If you look at the numbers, since we knew that the country had voted to leave in 2016, every year since then has been a record: More money has gone into the sector, more jobs have been created.”

    Rob Kniaz, a partner at Deliveroo and Babylon backer Hoxton Ventures, is equally upbeat.

    “There’s a bit of an echo chamber among the Twittering classes about the UK being in a doom spiral,” he says in a phone call from Kiev. “It's pleasant to see that the reality is actually not that and despite the naysayers, things are booming.”“

    The gloomsters were wrong. That is a good thing. But this is only London. The rest of the country may be very different....

    Goodnight!

    Don't run away. It is great news that Hoxton Ventures is upbeat. Hoxton Ventures - precisely the demographic that might be affected negatively by Brexit.

    And yes, that was a joke.
    Must have been a different Rob Kniaz who wrote a letter to the Standard warning about Brexit.

    Brexit is a danger to UK start-ups

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/letters/letters-to-the-editor-brexit-is-a-danger-to-uk-startups-a3263106.html

    Be nice to Byronic I think his blow up doll has exploded, again.
    He wrote that in June 2016. His quotes about Brexit not being a problem, after all, were made today.

    Really.. What is the point in posting this lame-brain piffle.
    Here's that link again (soon to be) sugar tits.

    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,829
    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    His speaking style really is quite boring. Sorry. And I write as someone who would like him to WIN the leadership because it would be good to have a sane, decent person leading Her Majesty’s Opposition. Because - who knows - Labour might just win next time.

    But he really is boring on TV. He drones. The same way Boris bumbles..But Boris is funny and watchable.

    I think it's to do with the shrinking of attention spans and related capacity for calm and serious contemplation of things. If somebody doesn't make people laugh or feel something extreme such as anger or joy or revulsion within 2 minutes they reach for the remote. For example, here is Keir Starmer delivering an excellent lecture back in 2014. It lasts about an hour or so - not particularly long - and yet it has only 3093 views in over 5 years. That's 2 a day. People see "Starmer" and "lecture" and "over an hour" and they shy away.

    Well, I've been watching the lecture. It's a somewhat specialist subject, domestic violence, but I thought, from what I saw, that, Mr K, that you are being somewhat hard on Keir Starmer. I have other things to do, as well as keep abreast of pb, so I haven't watched it all, but it seems to me to be at least as well delivered as other professional lectures I have attended.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151

    Coral cuts odds of Lisa Nandy winning Labour leadership
    The bookmaker has now cut Ms Nandy's odds from 7-1 to 5-1, making her the joint second favourite alongside Rebecca Long-Bailey, with Keir Starmer remaining the favourite at 4-9.

    Telegraph blog

    Long-Bailey has been spectacularly poor. And yet she was chosen to be the successor by such winningist superheroes.....
  • Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Can we PLEASE move on from the all-too-easy teasing of angry, jumpng-up-and-down intellectual midgets like Topping? It is unedifying. OK, so he’s not the shapeliest dildo in his wife’s bedside drawer. It’s not his fault,

    Instead we should be focusing on the good news. Because this really is good news for Britain. London is shrugging off Brexit.


    “Saul Klein, a partner at investment firm LocalGlobe and a co-founder of Lovefilm, sees the rise of technology in the UK as akin to an unstoppable force.

    “The secular wave of technology is so huge that it's beyond Brexit,” he says. “If you look at the numbers, since we knew that the country had voted to leave in 2016, every year since then has been a record: More money has gone into the sector, more jobs have been created.”

    Rob Kniaz, a partner at Deliveroo and Babylon backer Hoxton Ventures, is equally upbeat.

    “There’s a bit of an echo chamber among the Twittering classes about the UK being in a doom spiral,” he says in a phone call from Kiev. “It's pleasant to see that the reality is actually not that and despite the naysayers, things are booming.”“

    The gloomsters were wrong. That is a good thing. But this is only London. The rest of the country may be very different....

    Goodnight!

    Don't run away. It is great news that Hoxton Ventures is upbeat. Hoxton Ventures - precisely the demographic that might be affected negatively by Brexit.

    And yes, that was a joke.
    Must have been a different Rob Kniaz who wrote a letter to the Standard warning about Brexit.

    Brexit is a danger to UK start-ups

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/letters/letters-to-the-editor-brexit-is-a-danger-to-uk-startups-a3263106.html

    Be nice to Byronic I think his blow up doll has exploded, again.
    He wrote that in June 2016. His quotes about Brexit not being a problem, after all, were made today.

    Really.. What is the point in posting this lame-brain piffle.
    I’m pointing out Rob has different views depending on his audience.

    He’s not someone who has always been right.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    I think 2020 will prove to be a phenomenal year for UK investment, much of it "catch up" after the dithering of the last 2 years. Whether this can be sustained to generate longer term growth and better productivity remains to be seen but FinTech is increasingly becoming another UK specialty.

    Yes, i think that’s right. We have yet to see whether this resurgent investment is just the catch up, or whether it is “real” and “new”

    My guess it that is is both real and new.. London is going to shrug away Brexit. It is too big to stop now. And what was holding it back was more Corbyn than Brexit.

    It is the amazonification of cities. Blitzscaling. The biggest just get bigger, and the rest suffer. As Google dominates net-searches so London will dominate Europe, malgre Brexit.

    What this means for the rest of the UK is a very different matter. Boris should be focused on this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    edited January 15

    Quincel said:

    :o

    Japanese striker Kazuyoshi Miura is the ultimate evergreen player. His professional career started in 1986. And he's still going.

    At 52 (he turns 53 in February), Miura has just signed on the dotted line to play in the J1 League, Japan's top division, for the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51123128

    Wow, makes Kimiko Date-Krumm look like she retired early!

    I saw her play Serena Williams in her comeback at a grand slam. She lost, but was really close to winning. Playing from a different era threw Williams off completely, especially in the first set!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimiko_Date
    Talking about a different era in sports, I thought this was a fascinating example of how sport has changed thanks to data analytics. Basically as soon as data scientists had access to shot data, it became clear that the whole base strategy of every team in the NBA was wrong (too many mid range shots, when far superior statistically to attempt 3-point shots even though you miss more in raw % terms).



    Football is behind the curve on this, but catching up fast now. I think in 10 years we will think how shit most teams tactics for the vast majority of the history of the game.
    There is already a lot of data science in football, much of it originally motivated by betting. Whether this is good for the fan, I'm not sure, as there seems to be a lot more passing sideways now. This (originally German) book gives a wide, non-technical survey.
    Football Hackers: The Science and Art of a Data Revolution
    Biermann, Christoph
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/45029227-football-hackers
    There is, but if you listen to somebody like Ted Knutson of Statsbomb (and previously worked for Matthew Benham at Brentford) there is still a long long way to go e.g. the past few years its all been about expected goals (xG) and it is badly flawed metric.

    The likes of baseball have been doing this for 20+ years and NBA for 10+ years. Football is really the past 5 years or so that teams have really started to look at this and implement results (and miles behind the sophistication of the leading American sports).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,213
    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    I think 2020 will prove to be a phenomenal year for UK investment, much of it "catch up" after the dithering of the last 2 years. Whether this can be sustained to generate longer term growth and better productivity remains to be seen but FinTech is increasingly becoming another UK specialty.

    I very much hope so. But has there really been certainty? Check out that BBG article. Still much up in the air.
  • I don't think it matters too much if Starmer is dull. We have tended to alternate between charismatic and dull leaders:

    Thatcher- charismatic
    Major - dull
    Blair - charismatic
    Brown - dull
    Cameron - charismatic
    May -dull
    Boris - charismatic

    So we are due a dull PM next. That said it is interesting that the charismatic leaders have tended to be more successful and longer in post.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,686
    Why are the Windies players in the Bangladesh t20 league rather than the Australian big bash?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442

    You surely realise that the right-wing Press, theTelegraph, Mail, Express and Sun, and their on-line associates and arms are currently trawling through Starmer's, and probably Nandy's past, and the pasts of their nearest and dearest for anything that might be triumphantly dragged out and used to blacken their characters.
    Look at the dreadful hatchet job on Ed Milliband's father, a man who served his adopted country.

    Yes. Nothing is more certain than that whoever becomes Labour Leader will get drip drip smeared by the ghastly tory press. Stand by for "Oh Dear Keir - Starmer claims he's a patriot then struggles to name England 66 World Cup team. Misses out Jewish full back George Cohen."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,975

    Quincel said:

    :o

    Japanese striker Kazuyoshi Miura is the ultimate evergreen player. His professional career started in 1986. And he's still going.

    At 52 (he turns 53 in February), Miura has just signed on the dotted line to play in the J1 League, Japan's top division, for the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51123128

    Wow, makes Kimiko Date-Krumm look like she retired early!

    I saw her play Serena Williams in her comeback at a grand slam. She lost, but was really close to winning. Playing from a different era threw Williams off completely, especially in the first set!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimiko_Date
    Talking about a different era in sports, I thought this was a fascinating example of how sport has changed thanks to data analytics. Basically as soon as data scientists had access to shot data, it became clear that the whole base strategy of every team in the NBA was wrong (too many mid range shots, when far superior statistically to attempt 3-point shots even though you miss more in raw % terms).



    Football is behind the curve on this, but catching up fast now. I think in 10 years we will think how shit most teams tactics for the vast majority of the history of the game.
    There is already a lot of data science in football, much of it originally motivated by betting. Whether this is good for the fan, I'm not sure, as there seems to be a lot more passing sideways now. This (originally German) book gives a wide, non-technical survey.
    Football Hackers: The Science and Art of a Data Revolution
    Biermann, Christoph
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/45029227-football-hackers
    Football in 2000 was a lot different to football in 1990. Football in 2010 wasn’t hugely different to what it was in 2000. But the last five years or so have seen a massive change. Basically, midfield is uncontested now. One side asserts its dominance and the other sits deep. The days of Keane and Vieira are sadly long gone, and probably won’t return.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,201
    CatMan said:

    OT: Anybody got any betting opinions on tomorrows test? I'm tempted by Betfairs 6.6 for a draw, but I'm crap at betting so maybe you should ignore that...

    Check the weather forcast to see what is on offer for the match?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    More evidence of life at the bottom of the sea

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/15/house-prices-climb-fastest-pace-two-years/

    London has perked up. You can ignore this if you wish, but the last time I noticed this perkiness was when London property began its last enormous bullish run. And this was, roughly from 2010 to 2017, when, if you’d bought at the right time, you’d have almost doubled yer money
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728
    Byronic said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    I think 2020 will prove to be a phenomenal year for UK investment, much of it "catch up" after the dithering of the last 2 years. Whether this can be sustained to generate longer term growth and better productivity remains to be seen but FinTech is increasingly becoming another UK specialty.

    Yes, i think that’s right. We have yet to see whether this resurgent investment is just the catch up, or whether it is “real” and “new”

    My guess it that is is both real and new.. London is going to shrug away Brexit. It is too big to stop now. And what was holding it back was more Corbyn than Brexit.

    It is the amazonification of cities. Blitzscaling. The biggest just get bigger, and the rest suffer. As Google dominates net-searches so London will dominate Europe, malgre Brexit.

    What this means for the rest of the UK is a very different matter. Boris should be focused on this.
    I have very little doubt that the UK will outgrow the EZ this year and the majority of the next 10 but, as always, the distribution of that growth and the consequential inequality that arises will cause problems, not least for those newly blue red wall seats.

    When you look at UK strengths, Finance, Education, IT, law, pharma they are all growing much faster than western economies as a whole and they all have the capacity to cross seed ideas, people and skills. I don't see any other western European country so well placed (eastern countries are still involved in catch up of their own). I have consistently said that Brexit will prove a minor footnote on this one way or the other and recent developments have only confirmed that view.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    edited January 15
    tlg86 said:

    Quincel said:

    :o

    Japanese striker Kazuyoshi Miura is the ultimate evergreen player. His professional career started in 1986. And he's still going.

    At 52 (he turns 53 in February), Miura has just signed on the dotted line to play in the J1 League, Japan's top division, for the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51123128

    Wow, makes Kimiko Date-Krumm look like she retired early!

    I saw her play Serena Williams in her comeback at a grand slam. She lost, but was really close to winning. Playing from a different era threw Williams off completely, especially in the first set!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimiko_Date
    Talking about a different era in sports, I thought this was a fascinating example of how sport has changed thanks to data analytics. Basically as soon as data scientists had access to shot data, it became clear that the whole base strategy of every team in the NBA was wrong (too many mid range shots, when far superior statistically to attempt 3-point shots even though you miss more in raw % terms).



    Football is behind the curve on this, but catching up fast now. I think in 10 years we will think how shit most teams tactics for the vast majority of the history of the game.
    There is already a lot of data science in football, much of it originally motivated by betting. Whether this is good for the fan, I'm not sure, as there seems to be a lot more passing sideways now. This (originally German) book gives a wide, non-technical survey.
    Football Hackers: The Science and Art of a Data Revolution
    Biermann, Christoph
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/45029227-football-hackers
    Football in 2000 was a lot different to football in 1990. Football in 2010 wasn’t hugely different to what it was in 2000. But the last five years or so have seen a massive change. Basically, midfield is uncontested now. One side asserts its dominance and the other sits deep. The days of Keane and Vieira are sadly long gone, and probably won’t return.
    This is very interesting insight...

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442

    Well, I've been watching the lecture. It's a somewhat specialist subject, domestic violence, but I thought, from what I saw, that, Mr K, that you are being somewhat hard on Keir Starmer. I have other things to do, as well as keep abreast of pb, so I haven't watched it all, but it seems to me to be at least as well delivered as other professional lectures I have attended.

    No, exactly, that's what I'm saying. He is not dull. It's just that people are becoming shallow and expecting politics to be a branch of the entertainment industry. You and I are exceptions. We don't mind investing a bit of time in something.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    I think 2020 will prove to be a phenomenal year for UK investment, much of it "catch up" after the dithering of the last 2 years. Whether this can be sustained to generate longer term growth and better productivity remains to be seen but FinTech is increasingly becoming another UK specialty.

    I very much hope so. But has there really been certainty? Check out that BBG article. Still much up in the air.
    There's still a bit to do but I expect a sensible FTA this year with the EU with no tariffs, broad regulatory equivalence and minimal disruption to trade patterns. And the trends I have set out in my other post are all far more powerful.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Byronic said:

    More evidence of life at the bottom of the sea

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/15/house-prices-climb-fastest-pace-two-years/

    London has perked up. You can ignore this if you wish, but the last time I noticed this perkiness was when London property began its last enormous bullish run. And this was, roughly from 2010 to 2017, when, if you’d bought at the right time, you’d have almost doubled yer money

    If it was with a mortgage and 10% deposit you would have made 10x your money less mortgage interest costs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151

    I don't think it matters too much if Starmer is dull. We have tended to alternate between charismatic and dull leaders:

    Thatcher- charismatic
    Major - dull
    Blair - charismatic
    Brown - dull
    Cameron - charismatic
    May -dull
    Boris - charismatic

    So we are due a dull PM next. That said it is interesting that the charismatic leaders have tended to be more successful and longer in post.

    That sequence doesn't stop Sajid Javid being the next PM after his safe pair of hands in Number 11 has given Boris three and a half terms.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,465
    Quincel said:

    Definitely lay Liverpool for next season’s PL.



    Plus with Salah likely to miss the start of the 20/21 season Mo’s hardly going to play for Liverpool next season.
    We'll have to rely on Firmino and Minamino etc for a month. Most clubs would do anything to have them playing.

    Incidentally I've been meaning to say, I asked here a while back for how to get odds because I suggested after looking at the forthcoming fixture list that Liverpool could get to Christmas with a 100% win record. I was told that would be thousands to one against and impossible . . .

    . . . while the draw versus Manchester United means it didn't happen, I'm taking that as a moral victory that the odds were better than suggested. A near miss, but not a bad prediction for thousands to one against.
    For the record, just in case no-one gave you a direct answer at the time, emailing the big bookies or asking them on Twitter would have worked; you'd probably have gotten at least 1 or 2 quoting. Bespoke odds are much bigger these days because computers make it easier to calculate and bookies reckon people will accept poor odds on random bets they have in their mind (not saying you would have).

    I once asked Ladbrokes, WillHill, PaddyPower, and Bet365 for odds on Gibralter losing all 10 of their Euro 2020 qualifying matches. Ladbrokes quoted decent odds, but I could get more by just betting on every match in turn (which I did, and a 2-1 defeat to Cyprus gave me a nervy evening!).
    Thanks, I didn't try that.

    I asked two bookies in store. One said they wouldn't do anything like that and try Ladbrokes as they do more football bets. Ladbrokes the guy called up head office and came back to me saying they wouldn't do until Christmas (what I was saying) but offered Liverpool to score 114 points this season [ie winning all 38 matches] at 500/1.

    I said no to those odds.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442
    Byronic said:

    More evidence of life at the bottom of the sea

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/15/house-prices-climb-fastest-pace-two-years/

    London has perked up. You can ignore this if you wish, but the last time I noticed this perkiness was when London property began its last enormous bullish run. And this was, roughly from 2010 to 2017, when, if you’d bought at the right time, you’d have almost doubled yer money

    Do not remember "London House Price Boom" on the bus.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,465

    Coral cuts odds of Lisa Nandy winning Labour leadership
    The bookmaker has now cut Ms Nandy's odds from 7-1 to 5-1, making her the joint second favourite alongside Rebecca Long-Bailey, with Keir Starmer remaining the favourite at 4-9.

    Telegraph blog

    Long-Bailey has been spectacularly poor. And yet she was chosen to be the successor by such winningist superheroes.....
    She rated Corbyn's leadership while getting the worst result since 1935 as 10/10. If that's a 10/10 she must be delighted with how well she is doing now.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited January 15
    For: DavidL

    ********

    I travel a lot in my job male modelling. My big takeaway of the moment is that using the English language is a ginormous advantage for any economy, and Is a hidden but huge disadvantage for all other economies than don’t use it.

    Look at the struggles of Macron to fire up France. He’s doing his best - and he is clever and canny - but it’s not easy. And yet France is a beautiful blessed country with loads of space and a nice climate and well educated people... but it’s not quite working.

    The reason is, I reckon, because they speak French. This means that the culture is somewhat shut off from the source of gripping and exciting new ideas, which are all expressed in English first. And if you are the second person to use a new idea you are always second, no matter how acute your take.

    This is why London will survive Brexit largely intact. And possibly prosper muchly thereafter.
  • I don't think it matters too much if Starmer is dull. We have tended to alternate between charismatic and dull leaders:

    Thatcher- charismatic
    Major - dull
    Blair - charismatic
    Brown - dull
    Cameron - charismatic
    May -dull
    Boris - charismatic

    So we are due a dull PM next. That said it is interesting that the charismatic leaders have tended to be more successful and longer in post.

    That sequence doesn't stop Sajid Javid being the next PM after his safe pair of hands in Number 11 has given Boris three and a half terms.....
    Indeed not. It could be that Boris is succeeded by a dull Tory who in turn loses an election to a charismatic Labour leader
  • Coral cuts odds of Lisa Nandy winning Labour leadership
    The bookmaker has now cut Ms Nandy's odds from 7-1 to 5-1, making her the joint second favourite alongside Rebecca Long-Bailey, with Keir Starmer remaining the favourite at 4-9.

    Telegraph blog

    Long-Bailey has been spectacularly poor. And yet she was chosen to be the successor by such winningist superheroes.....
    She rated Corbyn's leadership while getting the worst result since 1935 as 10/10. If that's a 10/10 she must be delighted with how well she is doing now.
    I think you'll find that's called "winning the argument"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442

    That sequence doesn't stop Sajid Javid being the next PM after his safe pair of hands in Number 11 has given Boris three and a half terms.....

    You know what halts most winning runs in the end, don't you?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,465
    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    I think 2020 will prove to be a phenomenal year for UK investment, much of it "catch up" after the dithering of the last 2 years. Whether this can be sustained to generate longer term growth and better productivity remains to be seen but FinTech is increasingly becoming another UK specialty.

    Yes, i think that’s right. We have yet to see whether this resurgent investment is just the catch up, or whether it is “real” and “new”

    My guess it that is is both real and new.. London is going to shrug away Brexit. It is too big to stop now. And what was holding it back was more Corbyn than Brexit.

    It is the amazonification of cities. Blitzscaling. The biggest just get bigger, and the rest suffer. As Google dominates net-searches so London will dominate Europe, malgre Brexit.

    What this means for the rest of the UK is a very different matter. Boris should be focused on this.
    I have very little doubt that the UK will outgrow the EZ this year and the majority of the next 10 but, as always, the distribution of that growth and the consequential inequality that arises will cause problems, not least for those newly blue red wall seats.

    When you look at UK strengths, Finance, Education, IT, law, pharma they are all growing much faster than western economies as a whole and they all have the capacity to cross seed ideas, people and skills. I don't see any other western European country so well placed (eastern countries are still involved in catch up of their own). I have consistently said that Brexit will prove a minor footnote on this one way or the other and recent developments have only confirmed that view.
    I 100% agree.

    I remember a year or so ago saying I was confident the UK would grow faster than the Eurozone post-Brexit and I was basically called insane by a very respected poster here as he said there was no chance. I wish I'd thought to ask for odds for that no-chance.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151
    kinabalu said:

    That sequence doesn't stop Sajid Javid being the next PM after his safe pair of hands in Number 11 has given Boris three and a half terms.....

    You know what halts most winning runs in the end, don't you?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris
    You're no fun.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,093
    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Remember how they said Brexit would level London into rubble?

    London is now ahead of NYC, Hong Kong, Singapore, Frankfurt, Paris, in attracting hi-tech startup investment. It is THE global city

    https://www.prolificlondon.co.uk/tech-news/2020/01/uk-tech-sector-grows-faster-rate-us-and-china-london-now-rival-silicon-valley

    You utter, utter cretin.

    No one ever said that. People mostly said that there would be a gradual and near imperceptible diminution in the importance of London as a financial and perhaps tech centre and hence dolts like you would not notice because you're not that bright.
    Lol

    https://financefeeds.com/londons-trading-fintech-rockets-ahead-investment-apac-fintech-h1-2019/
    I think 2020 will prove to be a phenomenal year for UK investment, much of it "catch up" after the dithering of the last 2 years. Whether this can be sustained to generate longer term growth and better productivity remains to be seen but FinTech is increasingly becoming another UK specialty.

    Yes, i think that’s right. We have yet to see whether this resurgent investment is just the catch up, or whether it is “real” and “new”

    My guess it that is is both real and new.. London is going to shrug away Brexit. It is too big to stop now. And what was holding it back was more Corbyn than Brexit.

    It is the amazonification of cities. Blitzscaling. The biggest just get bigger, and the rest suffer. As Google dominates net-searches so London will dominate Europe, malgre Brexit.

    What this means for the rest of the UK is a very different matter. Boris should be focused on this.
    I have very little doubt that the UK will outgrow the EZ this year and the majority of the next 10 but, as always, the distribution of that growth and the consequential inequality that arises will cause problems, not least for those newly blue red wall seats.

    When you look at UK strengths, Finance, Education, IT, law, pharma they are all growing much faster than western economies as a whole and they all have the capacity to cross seed ideas, people and skills. I don't see any other western European country so well placed (eastern countries are still involved in catch up of their own). I have consistently said that Brexit will prove a minor footnote on this one way or the other and recent developments have only confirmed that view.
    Britain has been underperforming its peers ever since the referendum vote. It is about to inflict an economic shock on itself and is going to scramble for a decade just to stand still. I appreciate that hope springs eternal, but best not to drill your well in the Gobi desert.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,093
    Byronic said:

    More evidence of life at the bottom of the sea

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/15/house-prices-climb-fastest-pace-two-years/

    London has perked up. You can ignore this if you wish, but the last time I noticed this perkiness was when London property began its last enormous bullish run. And this was, roughly from 2010 to 2017, when, if you’d bought at the right time, you’d have almost doubled yer money

    Did you actually read the article? The house price growth - measured in one month! - was outside London.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    Can we PLEASE move on from the all-too-easy teasing of angry, jumpng-up-and-down intellectual midgets like Topping? It is unedifying. OK, so he’s not the shapeliest dildo in his wife’s bedside drawer. It’s not his fault,

    Instead we should be focusing on the good news. Because this really is good news for Britain. London is shrugging off Brexit.


    “Saul Klein, a partner at investment firm LocalGlobe and a co-founder of Lovefilm, sees the rise of technology in the UK as akin to an unstoppable force.

    “The secular wave of technology is so huge that it's beyond Brexit,” he says. “If you look at the numbers, since we knew that the country had voted to leave in 2016, every year since then has been a record: More money has gone into the sector, more jobs have been created.”

    Rob Kniaz, a partner at Deliveroo and Babylon backer Hoxton Ventures, is equally upbeat.

    “There’s a bit of an echo chamber among the Twittering classes about the UK being in a doom spiral,” he says in a phone call from Kiev. “It's pleasant to see that the reality is actually not that and despite the naysayers, things are booming.”“

    The gloomsters were wrong. That is a good thing. But this is only London. The rest of the country may be very different....

    Goodnight!

    Don't run away. It is great news that Hoxton Ventures is upbeat. Hoxton Ventures - precisely the demographic that might be affected negatively by Brexit.

    And yes, that was a joke.
    Hoxton Ventures, sounds like an Anna Span movie.
    Sounds like the sequel to Nathan Barley. Well weapon.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 294
    edited January 15
    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728
    Byronic said:

    For: DavidL

    ********

    I travel a lot in my job male modelling. My big takeaway of the moment is that using the English language is a ginormous advantage for any economy, and Is a hidden but huge disadvantage for all other economies than don’t use it.

    Look at the struggles of Macron to fire up France. He’s doing his best - and he is clever and canny - but it’s not easy. And yet France is a beautiful blessed country with loads of space and a nice climate and well educated people... but it’s not quite working.

    The reason is, I reckon, because they speak French. This means that the culture is somewhat shut off from the source of gripping and exciting new ideas, which are all expressed in English first. And if you are the second person to use a new idea you are always second, no matter how acute your take.

    This is why London will survive Brexit largely intact. And possibly prosper muchly thereafter.

    France has a lot of problems as well as some strengths.

    An overly dominant and excessively cosseted public sector that soaks up too much of the available talent.
    An overly rigid employment market that makes the cost of failure prohibitive.
    No exchange rate flexibility.
    No control of interest rates.
    Ridiculously unaffordable pensions (which in fairness Macron is trying to address).
    A seriously disillusioned and alienated sub-class with very high unemployment.
    A surprisingly poor record in elite education (1 University in the top 50, just).

    We have several of these problems as well but none to the same extent. Their system means that those in employment have to be very productive (to pay the higher overhead) and well trained but the door for entry is too narrow and too exclusive. Our gig economy, casual labour system has many drawbacks for those who get trapped in it but work is available.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,343


    What a weird logo.

    Anyone planning to go?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    More evidence of life at the bottom of the sea

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/15/house-prices-climb-fastest-pace-two-years/

    London has perked up. You can ignore this if you wish, but the last time I noticed this perkiness was when London property began its last enormous bullish run. And this was, roughly from 2010 to 2017, when, if you’d bought at the right time, you’d have almost doubled yer money

    Did you actually read the article? The house price growth - measured in one month! - was outside London.
    It’s also inside LONDON. Stop embarrassing yourself

    “Prices in London rose for only the second time in 18 months, inching up 0.2pc”

    The movement is tiny tiny tiny. But that, of course, is THE moment when any investor should pounce. The beginning of a new trend after years of decline. Few people have got poorer investing in London property over the decades.

    With a strong Tory government in place, Corbynism vanquished, a business friendly environment guaranteed for 5 years, probably 10 or even more, I predict London property is about to thrive, especially in an uncertain world. Feel free to sue me if I’m wrong: using your profits from the last time LONDON perked up, which I also predicted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151
    Rebecca Long-Bailey - heading right....right.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,465

    Britain has been underperforming its peers ever since the referendum vote. It is about to inflict an economic shock on itself and is going to scramble for a decade just to stand still. I appreciate that hope springs eternal, but best not to drill your well in the Gobi desert.

    Just because you're miserable does not make you a wise oracle like Cassandra.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,093
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    More evidence of life at the bottom of the sea

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/15/house-prices-climb-fastest-pace-two-years/

    London has perked up. You can ignore this if you wish, but the last time I noticed this perkiness was when London property began its last enormous bullish run. And this was, roughly from 2010 to 2017, when, if you’d bought at the right time, you’d have almost doubled yer money

    Did you actually read the article? The house price growth - measured in one month! - was outside London.
    It’s also inside LONDON. Stop embarrassing yourself

    “Prices in London rose for only the second time in 18 months, inching up 0.2pc”

    The movement is tiny tiny tiny. But that, of course, is THE moment when any investor should pounce. The beginning of a new trend after years of decline. Few people have got poorer investing in London property over the decades.

    With a strong Tory government in place, Corbynism vanquished, a business friendly environment guaranteed for 5 years, probably 10 or even more, I predict London property is about to thrive, especially in an uncertain world. Feel free to sue me if I’m wrong: using your profits from the last time LONDON perked up, which I also predicted.
    Sorry, I thought I was talking with a rational adult who would appreciate that 0.2% growth measured in one month was effectively flat. My mistake.

    London property prices look to have plenty more downside in them to me. Real borrowing costs in Britain are historically low and Britain's economy is about to undergo a voluntary shock. The chances of the second affecting the first are considerable. If it does, then prices will come under further pressure.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151
    edited January 15

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    "Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South"

    But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands.

    Your problem is Northampton. Nobody wants Northampton....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,465

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    More evidence of life at the bottom of the sea

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/15/house-prices-climb-fastest-pace-two-years/

    London has perked up. You can ignore this if you wish, but the last time I noticed this perkiness was when London property began its last enormous bullish run. And this was, roughly from 2010 to 2017, when, if you’d bought at the right time, you’d have almost doubled yer money

    Did you actually read the article? The house price growth - measured in one month! - was outside London.
    It’s also inside LONDON. Stop embarrassing yourself

    “Prices in London rose for only the second time in 18 months, inching up 0.2pc”

    The movement is tiny tiny tiny. But that, of course, is THE moment when any investor should pounce. The beginning of a new trend after years of decline. Few people have got poorer investing in London property over the decades.

    With a strong Tory government in place, Corbynism vanquished, a business friendly environment guaranteed for 5 years, probably 10 or even more, I predict London property is about to thrive, especially in an uncertain world. Feel free to sue me if I’m wrong: using your profits from the last time LONDON perked up, which I also predicted.
    Sorry, I thought I was talking with a rational adult who would appreciate that 0.2% growth measured in one month was effectively flat. My mistake.

    London property prices look to have plenty more downside in them to me. Real borrowing costs in Britain are historically low and Britain's economy is about to undergo a voluntary shock. The chances of the second affecting the first are considerable. If it does, then prices will come under further pressure.
    The shock will be yours when life goes on uninterrupted.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:



    Yes, i think that’s right. We have yet to see whether this resurgent investment is just the catch up, or whether it is “real” and “new”

    My guess it that is is both real and new.. London is going to shrug away Brexit. It is too big to stop now. And what was holding it back was more Corbyn than Brexit.

    It is the amazonification of cities. Blitzscaling. The biggest just get bigger, and the rest suffer. As Google dominates net-searches so London will dominate Europe, malgre Brexit.

    What this means for the rest of the UK is a very different matter. Boris should be focused on this.
    I have very little doubt that the UK will outgrow the EZ this year and the majority of the next 10 but, as always, the distribution of that growth and the consequential inequality that arises will cause problems, not least for those newly blue red wall seats.

    When you look at UK strengths, Finance, Education, IT, law, pharma they are all growing much faster than western economies as a whole and they all have the capacity to cross seed ideas, people and skills. I don't see any other western European country so well placed (eastern countries are still involved in catch up of their own). I have consistently said that Brexit will prove a minor footnote on this one way or the other and recent developments have only confirmed that view.
    Britain has been underperforming its peers ever since the referendum vote. It is about to inflict an economic shock on itself and is going to scramble for a decade just to stand still. I appreciate that hope springs eternal, but best not to drill your well in the Gobi desert.
    Actually there are few better places to go looking for oil: https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-oil-wells-in-the-gobi-desert-in-china-17153003.html

    And there will be few better places to build a successful tech business than the UK, certainly better than anywhere else in Europe. If you are so confident of our forthcoming doom what odds would you give me for the UK exceeding the EZ average in 2020?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,465

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    "Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South"

    But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands.

    Your problem is Northampton. Nobody wants Northampton....
    Why would anyone to be fair?
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 302

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    Best one yet but I'd put Northampton in the Midlands. Also, I wouldn't put much of Herts, or anything west of Peterborough, in the East.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728

    Rebecca Long-Bailey - heading right....right.....
    I seem to remember the song went:
    If left is right then right is wrong,
    you'd better decide which side your on.

    Maybe before RLB's time in fairness.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442
    Well a London property crash was one of the very few tangible benefits of Brexit that I was envisaging might accrue. I'm not left with much if I have to strike that one off.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,975
    kicorse said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    Best one yet but I'd put Northampton in the Midlands. Also, I wouldn't put much of Herts, or anything west of Peterborough, in the East.
    I live in Northamptonshire. We are definitely in the Midlands. East Midlands - just to confuse things.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442

    You're no fun.....

    I will take this as a compliment. Where there is exuberance may I bring circumspection. Where there is mess, a damp cloth.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151
    edited January 15
    kicorse said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    Best one yet but I'd put Northampton in the Midlands. Also, I wouldn't put much of Herts, or anything west of Peterborough, in the East.
    You could fairly go across/up to Skegness for the East and North divide I reckon. Put all the Wash in the East.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    More evidence of life at the bottom of the sea

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/15/house-prices-climb-fastest-pace-two-years/

    London has perked up. You can ignore this if you wish, but the last time I noticed this perkiness was when London property began its last enormous bullish run. And this was, roughly from 2010 to 2017, when, if you’d bought at the right time, you’d have almost doubled yer money

    Did you actually read the article? The house price growth - measured in one month! - was outside London.
    It’s also inside LONDON. Stop embarrassing yourself

    “Prices in London rose for only the second time in 18 months, inching up 0.2pc”

    The movement is tiny tiny tiny. But that, of course, is THE moment when any investor should pounce. The beginning of a new trend after years of decline. Few people have got poorer investing in London property over the decades.

    With a strong Tory government in place, Corbynism vanquished, a business friendly environment guaranteed for 5 years, probably 10 or even more, I predict London property is about to thrive, especially in an uncertain world. Feel free to sue me if I’m wrong: using your profits from the last time LONDON perked up, which I also predicted.
    Sorry, I thought I was talking with a rational adult who would appreciate that 0.2% growth measured in one month was effectively flat. My mistake.

    London property prices look to have plenty more downside in them to me. Real borrowing costs in Britain are historically low and Britain's economy is about to undergo a voluntary shock. The chances of the second affecting the first are considerable. If it does, then prices will come under further pressure.
    You’re mentally incapable of seeing any growth, upside, positivity, after Brexit, because it offends you spiritually. This is perverting your hitherto acute perspective. It’s a shame, because you were one of the smarter PBers

    I will have one Last go for today

    Look at London’s rivals globally, The cities that compete for this planet-wide cash. There aren’t many so it’s easy

    Tokyo: still in a death spiral, terrible demographics
    Shanghai, Beijing: in China, enough said
    Hong Kong: enough said
    Sydney: burning
    Singapore: yes pretty damn good, but,...
    Paris: speak French, riots, stuck in the EU
    New York: good, but a declining population
    LA: good, but not quite a world city

    In that light, you can see why global investors might look at London, and think: OK, Brexit is an annoyance, but investment in London business is booming. And whoever got poor buying London houses? No one, I’m in!

    And with that I will say a real goodnight x

  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,975

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    "Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South"

    But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands.

    Your problem is Northampton. Nobody wants Northampton....
    Why would anyone to be fair?
    I remember going to view a house in a village named East Farndon, which is a couple of miles from Market Harborough. The latter is in Leicestershire and the former in Northamptonshire. I made the mistake of saying Leicestershire to the woman who was selling the house. She was indignant and very keen to boast that East Farndon is in Northamptonhire not Leicestershire.

    I remember thinking that Leicestershire must be really shit.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,481
    I think Mr Smithson is trying to influence the betting markets by using that rather knobbly photo of Sir Keir.

    Here is a perfectly neutral picture of the dreamboat hunk:
    image
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,093
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:



    It’s also inside LONDON. Stop embarrassing yourself

    “Prices in London rose for only the second time in 18 months, inching up 0.2pc”

    The movement is tiny tiny tiny. But that, of course, is THE moment when any investor should pounce. The beginning of a new trend after years of decline. Few people have got poorer investing in London property over the decades.

    With a strong Tory government in place, Corbynism vanquished, a business friendly environment guaranteed for 5 years, probably 10 or even more, I predict London property is about to thrive, especially in an uncertain world. Feel free to sue me if I’m wrong: using your profits from the last time LONDON perked up, which I also predicted.

    Sorry, I thought I was talking with a rational adult who would appreciate that 0.2% growth measured in one month was effectively flat. My mistake.

    London property prices look to have plenty more downside in them to me. Real borrowing costs in Britain are historically low and Britain's economy is about to undergo a voluntary shock. The chances of the second affecting the first are considerable. If it does, then prices will come under further pressure.
    You’re mentally incapable of seeing any growth, upside, positivity, after Brexit, because it offends you spiritually. This is perverting your hitherto acute perspective. It’s a shame, because you were one of the smarter PBers

    I will have one Last go for today

    Look at London’s rivals globally, The cities that compete for this planet-wide cash. There aren’t many so it’s easy

    Tokyo: still in a death spiral, terrible demographics
    Shanghai, Beijing: in China, enough said
    Hong Kong: enough said
    Sydney: burning
    Singapore: yes pretty damn good, but,...
    Paris: speak French, riots, stuck in the EU
    New York: good, but a declining population
    LA: good, but not quite a world city

    In that light, you can see why global investors might look at London, and think: OK, Brexit is an annoyance, but investment in London business is booming. And whoever got poor buying London houses? No one, I’m in!

    And with that I will say a real goodnight x

    You need to spend some time on receive rather than transmit. I understand your arguments. You don't seem to be capable of understanding mine.

    If the cost of borrowing increases to any substantial extent, all the international animal spirits in the world aren't going to save London from a property slump.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:



    It’s also inside LONDON. Stop embarrassing yourself

    “Prices in London rose for only the second time in 18 months, inching up 0.2pc”

    The movement is tiny tiny tiny. But that, of course, is THE moment when any investor should pounce. The beginning of a new trend after years of decline. Few people have got poorer investing in London property over the decades.

    With a strong Tory government in place, Corbynism vanquished, a business friendly environment guaranteed for 5 years, probably 10 or even more, I predict London property is about to thrive, especially in an uncertain world. Feel free to sue me if I’m wrong: using your profits from the last time LONDON perked up, which I also predicted.

    Sorry, I thought I was talking with a rational adult who would appreciate that 0.2% growth measured in one month was effectively flat. My mistake.

    London property prices look to have plenty more downside in them to me. Real borrowing costs in Britain are historically low and Britain's economy is about to undergo a voluntary shock. The chances of the second affecting the first are considerable. If it does, then prices will come under further pressure.
    You’re mentally incapable of seeing any growth, upside, positivity, after Brexit, because it offends you spiritually. This is perverting your hitherto acute perspective. It’s a shame, because you were one of the smarter PBers

    I will have one Last go for today

    Look at London’s rivals globally, The cities that compete for this planet-wide cash. There aren’t many so it’s easy

    Tokyo: still in a death spiral, terrible demographics
    Shanghai, Beijing: in China, enough said
    Hong Kong: enough said
    Sydney: burning
    Singapore: yes pretty damn good, but,...
    Paris: speak French, riots, stuck in the EU
    New York: good, but a declining population
    LA: good, but not quite a world city

    In that light, you can see why global investors might look at London, and think: OK, Brexit is an annoyance, but investment in London business is booming. And whoever got poor buying London houses? No one, I’m in!

    And with that I will say a real goodnight x

    You need to spend some time on receive rather than transmit. I understand your arguments. You don't seem to be capable of understanding mine.

    If the cost of borrowing increases to any substantial extent, all the international animal spirits in the world aren't going to save London from a property slump.
    Interest rates are more likely to edge down rather than up this year. Not by much of course given their very low levels but I think most are expecting a cut of 0.25% at the end of the month.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,704

    kicorse said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    Best one yet but I'd put Northampton in the Midlands. Also, I wouldn't put much of Herts, or anything west of Peterborough, in the East.
    You could fairly go across/up to Skegness for the East and North divide I reckon. Put all the Wash in the East.
    Skeggy is East Midlands by the sea. Definitely not the north
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,093
    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:



    Sorry, I thought I was talking with a rational adult who would appreciate that 0.2% growth measured in one month was effectively flat. My mistake.

    London property prices look to have plenty more downside in them to me. Real borrowing costs in Britain are historically low and Britain's economy is about to undergo a voluntary shock. The chances of the second affecting the first are considerable. If it does, then prices will come under further pressure.

    You’re mentally incapable of seeing any growth, upside, positivity, after Brexit, because it offends you spiritually. This is perverting your hitherto acute perspective. It’s a shame, because you were one of the smarter PBers

    I will have one Last go for today

    Look at London’s rivals globally, The cities that compete for this planet-wide cash. There aren’t many so it’s easy

    Tokyo: still in a death spiral, terrible demographics
    Shanghai, Beijing: in China, enough said
    Hong Kong: enough said
    Sydney: burning
    Singapore: yes pretty damn good, but,...
    Paris: speak French, riots, stuck in the EU
    New York: good, but a declining population
    LA: good, but not quite a world city

    In that light, you can see why global investors might look at London, and think: OK, Brexit is an annoyance, but investment in London business is booming. And whoever got poor buying London houses? No one, I’m in!

    And with that I will say a real goodnight x

    You need to spend some time on receive rather than transmit. I understand your arguments. You don't seem to be capable of understanding mine.

    If the cost of borrowing increases to any substantial extent, all the international animal spirits in the world aren't going to save London from a property slump.
    Interest rates are more likely to edge down rather than up this year. Not by much of course given their very low levels but I think most are expecting a cut of 0.25% at the end of the month.
    The cost of borrowing is to a large extent decoupled from nominal Bank of England interest rates now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:



    Sorry, I thought I was talking with a rational adult who would appreciate that 0.2% growth measured in one month was effectively flat. My mistake.

    London property prices look to have plenty more downside in them to me. Real borrowing costs in Britain are historically low and Britain's economy is about to undergo a voluntary shock. The chances of the second affecting the first are considerable. If it does, then prices will come under further pressure.

    You’re mentally incapable of seeing any growth, upside, positivity, after Brexit, because it offends you spiritually. This is perverting your hitherto acute perspective. It’s a shame, because you were one of the smarter PBers

    I will have one Last go for today

    Look at London’s rivals globally, The cities that compete for this planet-wide cash. There aren’t many so it’s easy

    Tokyo: still in a death spiral, terrible demographics
    Shanghai, Beijing: in China, enough said
    Hong Kong: enough said
    Sydney: burning
    Singapore: yes pretty damn good, but,...
    Paris: speak French, riots, stuck in the EU
    New York: good, but a declining population
    LA: good, but not quite a world city

    In that light, you can see why global investors might look at London, and think: OK, Brexit is an annoyance, but investment in London business is booming. And whoever got poor buying London houses? No one, I’m in!

    And with that I will say a real goodnight x

    You need to spend some time on receive rather than transmit. I understand your arguments. You don't seem to be capable of understanding mine.

    If the cost of borrowing increases to any substantial extent, all the international animal spirits in the world aren't going to save London from a property slump.
    Interest rates are more likely to edge down rather than up this year. Not by much of course given their very low levels but I think most are expecting a cut of 0.25% at the end of the month.
    The cost of borrowing is to a large extent decoupled from nominal Bank of England interest rates now.
    I wouldn't disagree with that but there is no upward pressure on interest rates, quite the reverse, driven by the orange one in the White House and a surplus of savings looking to be recycled.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,093
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:



    Sorry, I thought I was talking with a rational adult who would appreciate that 0.2% growth measured in one month was effectively flat. My mistake.

    London property prices look to have plenty more downside in them to me. Real borrowing costs in Britain are historically low and Britain's economy is about to undergo a voluntary shock. The chances of the second affecting the first are considerable. If it does, then prices will come under further pressure.

    You’re mentally incapable of seeing any growth, upside, positivity, after Brexit, because it offends you spiritually. This is perverting your hitherto acute perspective. It’s a shame, because you were one of the smarter PBers

    I will have one Last go for today

    Look at London’s rivals globally, The cities that compete for this planet-wide cash. There aren’t many so it’s easy

    Tokyo: still in a death spiral, terrible demographics
    Shanghai, Beijing: in China, enough said
    Hong Kong: enough said
    Sydney: burning
    Singapore: yes pretty damn good, but,...
    Paris: speak French, riots, stuck in the EU
    New York: good, but a declining population
    LA: good, but not quite a world city

    In that light, you can see why global investors might look at London, and think: OK, Brexit is an annoyance, but investment in London business is booming. And whoever got poor buying London houses? No one, I’m in!

    And with that I will say a real goodnight x

    You need to spend some time on receive rather than transmit. I understand your arguments. You don't seem to be capable of understanding mine.

    If the cost of borrowing increases to any substantial extent, all the international animal spirits in the world aren't going to save London from a property slump.
    Interest rates are more likely to edge down rather than up this year. Not by much of course given their very low levels but I think most are expecting a cut of 0.25% at the end of the month.
    The cost of borrowing is to a large extent decoupled from nominal Bank of England interest rates now.
    I wouldn't disagree with that but there is no upward pressure on interest rates, quite the reverse, driven by the orange one in the White House and a surplus of savings looking to be recycled.
    With a government showing every sign of being about to spend money like a drunken sailor in port in order to sustain demand through a voluntary shock, the markets may not be quite so sanguine.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,704



    What a weird logo.

    Anyone planning to go?
    RLB channeling her inner Mod.

    If she turns up in white tights and dogtooth check, I'm in.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,728

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:



    You’re mentally incapable of seeing any growth, upside, positivity, after Brexit, because it offends you spiritually. This is perverting your hitherto acute perspective. It’s a shame, because you were one of the smarter PBers

    I will have one Last go for today

    Look at London’s rivals globally, The cities that compete for this planet-wide cash. There aren’t many so it’s easy

    Tokyo: still in a death spiral, terrible demographics
    Shanghai, Beijing: in China, enough said
    Hong Kong: enough said
    Sydney: burning
    Singapore: yes pretty damn good, but,...
    Paris: speak French, riots, stuck in the EU
    New York: good, but a declining population
    LA: good, but not quite a world city

    In that light, you can see why global investors might look at London, and think: OK, Brexit is an annoyance, but investment in London business is booming. And whoever got poor buying London houses? No one, I’m in!

    And with that I will say a real goodnight x

    You need to spend some time on receive rather than transmit. I understand your arguments. You don't seem to be capable of understanding mine.

    If the cost of borrowing increases to any substantial extent, all the international animal spirits in the world aren't going to save London from a property slump.
    Interest rates are more likely to edge down rather than up this year. Not by much of course given their very low levels but I think most are expecting a cut of 0.25% at the end of the month.
    The cost of borrowing is to a large extent decoupled from nominal Bank of England interest rates now.
    I wouldn't disagree with that but there is no upward pressure on interest rates, quite the reverse, driven by the orange one in the White House and a surplus of savings looking to be recycled.
    With a government showing every sign of being about to spend money like a drunken sailor in port in order to sustain demand through a voluntary shock, the markets may not be quite so sanguine.
    The market is remarkably sanguine: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk 0.65% on a 10 year gilt? Even on today's record low for inflation that is half the current inflation rate, a negative return in real terms with 10 years of future risk. As you will know from your day job yields like this cause their own problems but forecasting a significant increase in interest rates is brave.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    "Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South"

    But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands.

    Your problem is Northampton. Nobody wants Northampton....
    Northampton is in the Midlands.


  • kicorse said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    Best one yet but I'd put Northampton in the Midlands. Also, I wouldn't put much of Herts, or anything west of Peterborough, in the East.
    You could fairly go across/up to Skegness for the East and North divide I reckon. Put all the Wash in the East.
    Skeggy is East Midlands by the sea. Definitely not the north
    Nah, too many rugby league tops doing the rounds not to be.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,142
    Will Fury have enough spunk to take Wilder?

  • It would also have the effect of making Manchester and Sheffield 'on the border', which they are clearly not.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,372

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    The north boundary needs to bend around Stoke (north) but exclude Skegness
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,829
    edited January 15
    Mr Kinabalu, I have now taken an hour out of my life to listen to the Keir Starmer lecture you put before us, and, while it wasn't a barnstorming 'Get Brexit Done' or 'Make America Great Again' it was an excellent example of what it was supposed to be; a thoughtful exposition of the problems the speaker had faced during his professional life. And possible solutions.
    On the evidence of that speech I rather doubt whether Sir Keir could give a GBD or MAGA speech, and he could perhaps do with some advice on presentation, but if he were to give a shorter speech on the problems facing this country, and their possible solutions, I suspect he would be listened to with interest by all but the hard-line baby eaters on one hand and committed Marxists on the other.

    I would be interested to learn of Ms Cyclefree's opinion of it, although he was dealing with criminal law, rather than that aspect with which she deals.

    Edit: missing word.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,372



    What a weird logo.

    Anyone planning to go?
    RLB channeling her inner Mod.

    If she turns up in white tights and dogtooth check, I'm in.
    REBECCA
    ONG-BAILEY
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,093
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:



    You need to spend some time on receive rather than transmit. I understand your arguments. You don't seem to be capable of understanding mine.

    If the cost of borrowing increases to any substantial extent, all the international animal spirits in the world aren't going to save London from a property slump.

    Interest rates are more likely to edge down rather than up this year. Not by much of course given their very low levels but I think most are expecting a cut of 0.25% at the end of the month.
    The cost of borrowing is to a large extent decoupled from nominal Bank of England interest rates now.
    I wouldn't disagree with that but there is no upward pressure on interest rates, quite the reverse, driven by the orange one in the White House and a surplus of savings looking to be recycled.
    With a government showing every sign of being about to spend money like a drunken sailor in port in order to sustain demand through a voluntary shock, the markets may not be quite so sanguine.
    The market is remarkably sanguine: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk 0.65% on a 10 year gilt? Even on today's record low for inflation that is half the current inflation rate, a negative return in real terms with 10 years of future risk. As you will know from your day job yields like this cause their own problems but forecasting a significant increase in interest rates is brave.
    I'm emphatically not forecasting anything. It's fascinating to see a Conservative government effectively experimenting with MMT. These are uncharted waters.

    The obvious danger is that at some point if you keep blowing up a balloon it will go bang. Just before that point, it will look wonderful. That is exactly the risk here. Markets will be serene right up until the point that their participants decide that they are emphatically not serene.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151
    Freggles said:



    What a weird logo.

    Anyone planning to go?
    RLB channeling her inner Mod.

    If she turns up in white tights and dogtooth check, I'm in.
    REBECCA
    ONG-BAILEY
    REBECCA
    OMG-BAILEY
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 294
    edited January 15
    Stocky said:

    kicorse said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    Best one yet but I'd put Northampton in the Midlands. Also, I wouldn't put much of Herts, or anything west of Peterborough, in the East.
    I live in Northamptonshire. We are definitely in the Midlands. East Midlands - just to confuse things.
    Looking at the county, the southern part (containing Northampton and Rushden) are at the extremities of the South. Northampton is now a commuter town for London.

    The line would run roughly through Daventry and Kettering, leaving Corby in the Midlands (E).

    That, to me, makes sense.

    EDIT: Daventry contains the JD Wetherspoons warehouse - that's rather telling, I think.
  • Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    "Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South"

    But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands.

    Your problem is Northampton. Nobody wants Northampton....
    "But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands."


    hmmm, I think I'd need to hear why.


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,093
    Freggles said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    The north boundary needs to bend around Stoke (north) but exclude Skegness
    Lincolnshire is a problem all told. Most of it belongs in the (east) midlands, faute de mieux. The north of the county is in the north. The south might creep into the east.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 10,308
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'll be wearing a black ribbon when I'm out and about that infamous day.
    I hope you'll wear a bit more than that, sounds chilly.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910



    What a weird logo.

    Anyone planning to go?
    RLB channeling her inner Mod.

    If she turns up in white tights and dogtooth check, I'm in.
    She's going to scream "Bellboy!" at Starmer then hug Phil Daniels in a parka.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,151

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    "Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South"

    But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands.

    Your problem is Northampton. Nobody wants Northampton....
    "But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands."


    hmmm, I think I'd need to hear why.


    Some things just ARE.

    There are no rational arguments for them to be anywhere else.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,442

    Mr Kinabalu, I have now taken an hour out of my life to listen to the Keir Starmer lecture you put before us, and, while it wasn't a barnstorming 'Get Brexit Done' or 'Make America Great Again' it was an excellent example of what it was supposed to be; a thoughtful exposition of the problems the speaker had faced during his professional life. And possible solutions.
    On the evidence of that speech I rather doubt whether Sir Keir could give a GBD or MAGA speech, and he could perhaps do with some advice on presentation, but if he were to give a shorter speech on the problems facing this country, and their possible solutions, I suspect he would be listened to with interest by all but the hard-line baby eaters on one hand and committed Marxists on the other.

    I would be interested to learn of Ms Cyclefree's opinion of it, although he was dealing with criminal law, rather than that aspect with which she deals.

    Edit: missing word.

    😊

    And IMO we want far less MAGA and GBD.

    I think people will respond well to being treated like adults. I sense that this right now is high tide for softhead populism and it's about to turn and go out.

    Wonder who'll be left lying on the sand with the crabs?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,770

    Stocky said:

    kicorse said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    Best one yet but I'd put Northampton in the Midlands. Also, I wouldn't put much of Herts, or anything west of Peterborough, in the East.
    I live in Northamptonshire. We are definitely in the Midlands. East Midlands - just to confuse things.
    Looking at the county, the southern part (containing Northampton and Rushden) are at the extremities of the South. Northampton is now a commuter town for London.

    The line would run roughly through Daventry and Kettering, leaving Corby in the Midlands (E).

    That, to me, makes sense.

    EDIT: Daventry contains the JD Wetherspoons warehouse - that's rather telling, I think.
    The warehouse will be there because the M1 East Midlands corridor is the sweet spot for logistics and distribution in GB. About a maximum of 4 hours to anywhere worth going to.

    Or was that just a sly dig at the midlands?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,770

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    "Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South"

    But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands.

    Your problem is Northampton. Nobody wants Northampton....
    "But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands."


    hmmm, I think I'd need to hear why.


    Some things just ARE.

    There are no rational arguments for them to be anywhere else.
    Chester is physically in the north but always used to be more like a southern city. It’s now overrun with scousers and I don’t think south in the north holds true.
  • matt said:

    Stocky said:

    kicorse said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    Best one yet but I'd put Northampton in the Midlands. Also, I wouldn't put much of Herts, or anything west of Peterborough, in the East.
    I live in Northamptonshire. We are definitely in the Midlands. East Midlands - just to confuse things.
    Looking at the county, the southern part (containing Northampton and Rushden) are at the extremities of the South. Northampton is now a commuter town for London.

    The line would run roughly through Daventry and Kettering, leaving Corby in the Midlands (E).

    That, to me, makes sense.

    EDIT: Daventry contains the JD Wetherspoons warehouse - that's rather telling, I think.
    The warehouse will be there because the M1 East Midlands corridor is the sweet spot for logistics and distribution in GB. About a maximum of 4 hours to anywhere worth going to.

    Or was that just a sly dig at the midlands?
    yeah

    sly

    sly was definitely what I was aiming for!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,317
    Stocky said:

    Updated North South East Wales map
    united-kingdom-map-max

    Wales border, give or take, it's a bit blurred tbh

    South line is Ross on Wye to the Wash. This puts Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South and Hereford, Worcester, Redditch and Coventry in the Midlands.

    North line is Dee to the Wash, as discussed.

    East is just west of Grantham and a lazy loop to be north of Chelmsford, before hitting the Blackwater estuary.

    Come.
    At.
    Me.

    "Warwick, Stratford, Cheltenham and Gloucester in the South"

    But by any measure, Warwick and Stratford are quintessentially Midlands.

    Your problem is Northampton. Nobody wants Northampton....
    Why would anyone to be fair?
    I remember going to view a house in a village named East Farndon, which is a couple of miles from Market Harborough. The latter is in Leicestershire and the former in Northamptonshire. I made the mistake of saying Leicestershire to the woman who was selling the house. She was indignant and very keen to boast that East Farndon is in Northamptonhire not Leicestershire.

    I remember thinking that Leicestershire must be really shit.
    A curious comment. East Leicestershire is quite lovely, particularly the SE quadrant and also the Wreake valley. Keep it quiet though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,784
    Chris said:

    I think Mr Smithson is trying to influence the betting markets by using that rather knobbly photo of Sir Keir.

    Here is a perfectly neutral picture of the dreamboat hunk:
    image

    Mike is Red on SKS


    SKS is pretending to be Red for personal gain


    SKS is actually Tim Roth
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,646

    Russian government resigns as Putin plans future
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51120166

    It's interesting that, so far, he hasn't just gone the route of 'no term limits at all' approach.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,784
    Becky is Red

    Jess Phillips is Blue

    If you have trouble sleeping

    Its Sir Keir for you.

This discussion has been closed.