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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservative intake of 2019 (Part 2 of 2) – the new MPs to

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  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    LOL

    The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

    I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.
    Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?
    A good question still awaiting a credible answer.
    Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.
    I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

    I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.
    Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

    Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

    The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.
    One of the problems with Brexit in the last two years especially is that the only argument for it has been “we voted for it, so we have to do it”. Everything else has fallen by the wayside. No attempt has been made to convince anyone who didn’t support it that it has any intrinsic benefits.

    So we are left with the undoubted risks, all economic projections have us been worse off, our diplomatic influence appears already to be diminished and worse all we are entirely at the mercy of a broken, polarised Westminster/Whitehall system.

    There is no positive view, no positive stake, so at best it’s time to batten down the hatches.
    On reducing immigration, its political salience, and changing attitudes to skilled workers it’s certainly worked. I also see tangible benefits to agriculture and fisheries policies, shifting to ecological based payments, which is almost entirely down to Michael Gove. The North is now being listened to in a way it never was before.

    I agree there is very little proposed yet on what we will do with our newfound regulatory dynamism or specifics on trade.

    I would like to see more on that.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    alex_ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    LOL

    The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

    I really am at quite a loss why so manyty.
    Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?
    A good question still awaiting a credible
    I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

    I think seven years is the minimum.
    Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

    Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

    The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.
    Yes .
    It
    Why should it go away?

    Our relationship with the continent is a feature of our geography and history. We have a 2000 year history of opting in and opting out of wider European alliances and trading arrangements.

    I support EEA as LD policy, as a step to rejoin.
    Isn’t you first paragraph the point, which the second does nothing to defeat? Our history is of a nation pursuing its temporary interest, through fluctuations in allies and trading relationships.

    It is the permanence of membership of the EU, the direction of travel which people felt we were increasingly powerless to change, the subordination of British exceptionalism (even when that exceptionalism was misguided) that drove much of the growing opposition to membership. That there is a valid case that both were illusionary perceptions could not change the instinctive view that that was the case.
    The trouble is that those who are pro-EU are clueless as to how to best make their case.

    If I was ever to convert to Remaining or Rejoining it would be because I was convinced it was overwhelmingly in our national interest.

    Any talk of Europeanism and European identity leaves me cold and reminds me why we left.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,854
    alex_ said:

    The people of Norway seem perfectly happy to defy the opinions of their political class to stay out of the EU. I don’t see why a U.K. divergent from the EU (having never been particularly enthusiastic about the whole thing in the first place) should be any different.

    they are awash with money. If economy goes downhill , opinions will change very quickly. It will all hinge on money or lack of it.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,388


    On reducing immigration, its political salience, and changing attitudes to skilled workers it’s certainly worked. I also see tangible benefits to agriculture and fisheries policies, shifting to ecological based payments, which is almost entirely down to Michael Gove. The North is now being listened to in a way it never was before.

    I agree there is very little proposed yet on what we will do with our newfound regulatory dynamism or specifics on trade.

    I would like to see more on that.

    That can't really be widely trailed before the outcome of the FTA talks with the EU though can it? I think we have a great negotiating position, but I don't really see the point of needlessly antagonising the EU with threats to deregulate and become a low tax haven (if such is the plan).
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FF43 said:

    Cromwell was competent. Johnson has the Boris Bus, the Garden Bridge, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and just now the Northern Ireland Protocol that for the first time unites all of the daggers-drawn NI Ireland parties in total opposition. Johnson is an over-promoted Comical Ali.

    I don't know what will happen with Brexit. I don't see the UK rejoining the EU any time soon, but am not convinced the current trajectory is workable.

    If we do rejoin it might be in baby steps.

    Join the single market then rejoin the rest in stages...
    It all depends on how the economy develops. If people feel Brexit in their pocket the landscape will evolve. If the economy potters along, nothing will change.
    You’re overrating the salience of the economy there.
    I really don’t think so. If we enter the overdue recession, people lose their jobs and pensions are squeezed, political opinions will change. They always do. The government will get the blame.
    The Government will but that won’t directly convert into support for Rejoin because values.

    The economy is a phoney flank. It’s fought over because both Leavers and Remainers recognise they will never win the other side over to their cause on the values they really care about, but they might on the economy as it’s largely neutral on that.

    So they try that, repeatedly and unsuccessfully, instead.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,709
    alex_ said:

    The people of Norway seem perfectly happy to defy the opinions of their political class to stay out of the EU. I don’t see why a U.K. divergent from the EU (having never been particularly enthusiastic about the whole thing in the first place) should be any different.

    Norway has outsourced a large chunk of its economic and diplomatic policy to an organisation it's not a member of. The Norwegian parliament produced an informative report, basically saying the arrangement was a nonsense, but it was the compromise that they came up with for a population split on the issue.

    Incidentally, the report is keen on the ECJ. It protects Norway's interests against arbitrary decisions in the EU, when Norway doesn't have a say in those decisions.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FF43 said:

    Cromwell was competent. Johnson has the Boris Bus, the Garden Bridge, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and just now the Northern Ireland Protocol that for the first time unites all of the daggers-drawn NI Ireland parties in total opposition. Johnson is an over-promoted Comical Ali.

    I don't know what will happen with Brexit. I don't see the UK rejoining the EU any time soon, but am not convinced the current trajectory is workable.

    If we do rejoin it might be in baby steps.

    Join the single market then rejoin the rest in stages...
    It all depends on how the economy develops. If people feel Brexit in their pocket the landscape will evolve. If the economy potters along, nothing will change.
    You’re overrating the salience of the economy there.
    I really don’t think so. If we enter the overdue recession, people lose their jobs and pensions are squeezed, political opinions will change. They always do. The government will get the blame.
    The Government will but that won’t directly convert into support for Rejoin because values.

    The economy is a phoney flank. It’s fought over because both Leavers and Remainers recognise they will never win the other side over to their cause on the values they really care about, but they might on the economy as it’s largely neutral on that.

    So they try that, repeatedly and unsuccessfully, instead.
    The economy has not bitten, because the economy has grown, if it shrinks and the government is dividing up a smaller pie, it will bite.

    But we’ll see, maybe Boris will continue to be lucky,
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    LOL

    The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

    I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.
    Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?
    A good question still awaiting a credible answer.
    Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.
    I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

    I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.
    Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

    Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

    The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.
    One of the problems with Brexit in the last two years especially is that the only argument for it has been “we voted for it, so we have to do it”. Everything else has fallen by the wayside. No attempt has been made to convince anyone who didn’t support it that it has any intrinsic benefits.

    So we are left with the undoubted risks, all economic projections have us been worse off, our diplomatic influence appears already to be diminished and worse all we are entirely at the mercy of a broken, polarised Westminster/Whitehall system.

    There is no positive view, no positive stake, so at best it’s time to batten down the hatches.
    On reducing immigration, its political salience, and changing attitudes to skilled workers it’s certainly worked. I also see tangible benefits to agriculture and fisheries policies, shifting to ecological based payments, which is almost entirely down to Michael Gove. The North is now being listened to in a way it never was before.

    I agree there is very little proposed yet on what we will do with our newfound regulatory dynamism or specifics on trade.

    I would like to see more on that.
    Thin gruel.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    LOL

    The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

    I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.
    Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?
    A good question still awaiting a credible answer.
    Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.
    I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

    I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.
    Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

    Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

    The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.
    One of the problems with Brexit in the last two years especially is that the only argument for it has been “we voted for it, so we have to do it”. Everything else has fallen by the wayside. No attempt has been made to convince anyone who didn’t support it that it has any intrinsic benefits.

    There is no positive view, no positive stake, so at best it’s time to batten down the hatches.
    On reducing immigration, its political salience, and changing attitudes to skilled workers it’s certainly worked. I also see tangible benefits to agriculture and fisheries policies, shifting to ecological based payments, which is almost entirely down to Michael Gove. The North is now being listened to in a way it never was before.

    I agree there is very little proposed yet on what we will do with our newfound regulatory dynamism or specifics on trade.

    I would like to see more on that.
    Thin gruel.
    That depends on your point of view.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,709
    The post-Soviet Russian economy shrunk by 60% I believe. I don't see anything like that happening to a Brexited Britain. Brexit has no economic advantages but the big risks to Brexit IMO are constitutional and diplomatic. Losing influence doesn't just mean a hit to our perceptions of a UK strutting the world stage. It means getting less of what matters to us.
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,100
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    You are naive in the extreme. The divide will evolve, but because of the divisive politics of the last couple of years and the singular unwillingness of this government to do anything beyond rhetoric to heal the wounds, it will fester and persist.

    Nah.

    Come back here in a couple of years, with your festering Remain resentment.

    You'll be laughed at. The EU has no political viability here. It is a gangrenous creed. Amputation starts on 1st February.
    I am not saying that we will rejoin, just that wounds will be there and re-emerge and widen when this government exits its honeymoon.
    You are just saying that those who hate Boris Johnson and the Tories will continue to hate them.

    Those haters have just had a general election - where the haters got smashed.

    The sensible remainers will move on and will let their wounds heal. A small minority will continue to pick at them. They will end up with disfiguring scars, but not much else to show for it.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    LOL

    The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

    I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.
    Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?
    A good question still awaiting a credible answer.
    Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.
    I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

    I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.
    Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

    Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

    The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.
    One of the problems with Brexit in the last two years especially is that the only argument for it has been “we voted for it, so we have to do it”. Everything else has fallen by the wayside. No attempt has been made to convince anyone who didn’t support it that it has any intrinsic benefits.

    There is no positive view, no positive stake, so at best it’s time to batten down the hatches.
    On reducing immigration, its political salience, and changing attitudes to skilled workers it’s certainly worked. I also see tangible benefits to agriculture and fisheries policies, shifting to ecological based payments, which is almost entirely down to Michael Gove. The North is now being listened to in a way it never was before.

    I agree there is very little proposed yet on what we will do with our newfound regulatory dynamism or specifics on trade.

    I would like to see more on that.
    Thin gruel.
    That depends on your point of view.
    Yes, that’s my point. Stuff for the true believers, but no attempt at convincing anyone else.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    You are naive in the extreme. The divide will evolve, but because of the divisive politics of the last couple of years and the singular unwillingness of this government to do anything beyond rhetoric to heal the wounds, it will fester and persist.

    Nah.

    Come back here in a couple of years, with your festering Remain resentment.

    You'll be laughed at. The EU has no political viability here. It is a gangrenous creed. Amputation starts on 1st February.
    I am not saying that we will rejoin, just that wounds will be there and re-emerge and widen when this government exits its honeymoon.
    You are just saying that those who hate Boris Johnson and the Tories will continue to hate them.

    Those haters have just had a general election - where the haters got smashed.

    The sensible remainers will move on and will let their wounds heal. A small minority will continue to pick at them. They will end up with disfiguring scars, but not much else to show for it.
    All governments lose popularity eventually. They sow the seeds of their own undoing and it doesn’t take much imagination to see how Boris might fall.
This discussion has been closed.