Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Milwaukee mayhem: the Dems could well be heading for a contest

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 18 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Milwaukee mayhem: the Dems could well be heading for a contested convention

Fictional America political dramas love a contested convention, where two or more candidates turn up still in hope of gaining the nomination, with all the trading, arguing and general politicking (and, in fictionland, often rather more than politicking) that implies. In reality, it doesn’t happen like that.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Another factor is the senators running will miss campaigning during the impeachment hearings: Warren, Sanders and Klobuchar. Nixon, as those of us who spent yesterday evening watching Watergate documentaries will recall, had already been reelected before matters came to a head.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,370
    Well... doesn't it depend?

    If Biden wins Iowa, then it's pretty much all over. He's leading the national polling, and there are a lot of moderate votes that come to him as the field narrows.

    And if Buttigieg wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then he stands a serious chance of going all the way to the convention.

    On the other hand, Buttigieg will never get a better chance than in Iowa and New Hampshire, if he doesn't win one of them, then it's all over for him, and you have to reckon he's better throwing his support behind whoever the leading moderate is in return for a promise of a cabinet level appointment.

    The same is probably true of Klobuchar and Yang (and to a lesser extent Steyer).

    And Warren doesn't have a great deal of money, so if she's fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire, then she's probably not going to make it to Super Tuesday (in any real sense) either.

    Finally, the 15% bar really hammers the plethora of candidates currently on 2, 3, 5 or even 7%. They end up with zero, or close to zero, delegates.

    I'd also point out that the superdelegates will largely back the popular vote winner. This means that if it ends (say) 45, 30, 20, 5 in delegates, then the candidate on 45% will probably win the first vote... resulting in a non-contested convention.

    So, I'd reckon a non-contested convention is the most likely outcome - say a 65-75% chance.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 29,370
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/17/boris-johnson-expected-open-trade-talks-us-negotiating-eu/

    I think there's a degree of naivety here.

    1. Even in a perfect world, a UK-US trade deal is not going to be concluded in less than 18 months. (And may not be possible at all given the large number of Conservative MPs who are from rural constituencies.)

    2. But pretend that isn't true: even if you swapped an EU deal for a US deal overnight, it would still result in disruption to the British economy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,358
    Given everything that goes on in their system; gerrymandering, voters registration issues and so on, as well as a substantial dose of 'winner takes all' in the nomination and indeed Presidential electoral system, I wonder if the USA can properly be described as a 'democracy'?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 37,529
    Fifth! Like Rebecca Wrong Daily....(in my dreams, more likely to be the much better Lady Nugee...)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883
    The greater chance of a brokered convention comes if, say, Sanders is in the lead on delegates - but polling shows him losing badly to Trump in November.

    What yer gonna do, superdelegates? Vote Trump four more years?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 23,297
    Third like Burgon.

    Good article. But I’d be surprised if it goes to contested.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 23,297
    edited January 18
    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 391
    IanB2 said:

    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger


    The circumstances for the second impeachee, Bill Clinton, were rather different, but he, too, could claim entrapment. “

    Wow - that is some contortion from Freedland or was it Weinstein that wrote it...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864
    edited January 18
    IanB2 said:

    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger

    Afaics the Trump strategy has now become 'yeah I did what you're accusing me off, so what?'. Depressingly it'll probably work, more depressingly the GOP may not receive a richly deserved blowback from voters for its complicity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 23,297

    IanB2 said:

    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger

    Afaics the Trump strategy has now become 'yeah I did what you're accusing me off, so what?'. Depressingly it'll probably work, more depressingly the GOP may not receive the richly deserved blowback from voters for its complicity.
    The stock of politicians has fallen to the point where being seen as a non-politician starts you off with a whole stack of credits. Both UK and US are essentially at the Berlusconi stage. We mock the Italians (politicians, anyway) but their political history does have a habit of trailblazing for others.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 391
    Big movements in the Lab leader market.


    Sir Keith 1.43
    Beccy Bailey 4.6
    Nandy 14
    Jess 70
    Nugee 240
  • IanB2 said:

    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger

    Afaics the Trump strategy has now become 'yeah I did what you're accusing me off, so what?'. Depressingly it'll probably work, more depressingly the GOP may not receive a richly deserved blowback from voters for its complicity.
    Watergate did not lead anywhere. Presidents have continued their power-grabs and have continued, let's say questionable, behaviour. Bush's rendition and secret prisons; Reagan's Iran-Contras; Obama's drone war against wedding parties. Trump can do whatever he likes and compliant Senators will look the other way.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 943
    Even if Keir Starmer wins, the hard left will not go quietly.. Starmer is going to have a job and a half that's for sure. Attempts will undoubtedly be made to destabilise him.. Momentum don't want to win, they just want their policies, end of.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 25,921
    FPT

    Cookie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Fun to find a subject I agree with Malcom on!

    One of the reasons Malc is one of our best-loved posters is that he doesn't fit into any neat little boxes, and he speaks his own mind rather than parroting whatever is the drivel of the day spouted by his current political lodestar. I think everyone on here strongly agrees with him on at least one issue, but the variety lies in which issue it happens to be!

    I do wonder if we had a less strong party system, whether we'd discover more of our politicians also spent a lot of time secretly agreeing with their opponents about lots of things. There must even be times when we watch a Labour and Tory MP rip shreds out of each other on an issue where privately they both disagree with the position their party leadership has taken and they'd actually each feel more comfortable defending the opposing position...

    All the best to you and your wife @malcolmg if you catch this. Floreat Brassica!

    @MyBurningEars, thank you very much for your kind wishes. If all tests are good today they are going to discharge my wife so fingers crossed, reckon she is better at home now rather than among all the infections in hospital. She has a fair bit to go but on the mend.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,498
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. G, hope your wife gets to go home and recovers quickly.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 943
    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Fun to find a subject I agree with Malcom on!

    One of the reasons Malc is one of our best-loved posters is that he doesn't fit into any neat little boxes, and he speaks his own mind rather than parroting whatever is the drivel of the day spouted by his current political lodestar. I think everyone on here strongly agrees with him on at least one issue, but the variety lies in which issue it happens to be!

    I do wonder if we had a less strong party system, whether we'd discover more of our politicians also spent a lot of time secretly agreeing with their opponents about lots of things. There must even be times when we watch a Labour and Tory MP rip shreds out of each other on an issue where privately they both disagree with the position their party leadership has taken and they'd actually each feel more comfortable defending the opposing position...

    All the best to you and your wife @malcolmg if you catch this. Floreat Brassica!

    @MyBurningEars, thank you very much for your kind wishes. If all tests are good today they are going to discharge my wife so fingers crossed, reckon she is better at home now rather than among all the infections in hospital. She has a fair bit to go but on the mend.

    best of luck Malc, don't forget all that nutrition in your favourite vegetable ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    edited January 18
    I think it is way too early to say. The attrition rate has already been very high and it may continue to be so once the votes are being counted. The more candidates that drop out the less likely that a contested Convention is. Sanders, the US Corbyn, is the problem. He weakened Clinton by taking her all the way and I can see him doing the same again. Similarly I can see the party working hard to deny him the nomination even if he is in the lead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807
    edited January 18
    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Fun to find a subject I agree with Malcom on!

    One of the reasons Malc is one of our best-loved posters is that he doesn't fit into any neat little boxes, and he speaks his own mind rather than parroting whatever is the drivel of the day spouted by his current political lodestar. I think everyone on here strongly agrees with him on at least one issue, but the variety lies in which issue it happens to be!

    I do wonder if we had a less strong party system, whether we'd discover more of our politicians also spent a lot of time secretly agreeing with their opponents about lots of things. There must even be times when we watch a Labour and Tory MP rip shreds out of each other on an issue where privately they both disagree with the position their party leadership has taken and they'd actually each feel more comfortable defending the opposing position...

    All the best to you and your wife @malcolmg if you catch this. Floreat Brassica!

    @MyBurningEars, thank you very much for your kind wishes. If all tests are good today they are going to discharge my wife so fingers crossed, reckon she is better at home now rather than among all the infections in hospital. She has a fair bit to go but on the mend.

    Good to hear, malcolm, and quite right too. Hospitals are dangerous places.

    And as for Cookie’s substantive point - that is the argument for PR and the politics of pluralism.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 1,949
    I'm sure the same thread appeared on here 4 years ago?

    Not suggesting it's wrong but like the cuckoo in spring is the contested convention.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807

    IanB2 said:

    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger

    Afaics the Trump strategy has now become 'yeah I did what you're accusing me off, so what?'. Depressingly it'll probably work, more depressingly the GOP may not receive a richly deserved blowback from voters for its complicity.
    Watergate did not lead anywhere. Presidents have continued their power-grabs and have continued, let's say questionable, behaviour. Bush's rendition and secret prisons; Reagan's Iran-Contras; Obama's drone war against wedding parties. Trump can do whatever he likes and compliant Senators will look the other way.
    Even Nixon did not believe that he was completely beyond the law. Trump is a genuine gangster.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807
    edited January 18

    I'm sure the same thread appeared on here 4 years ago?

    Not suggesting it's wrong but like the cuckoo in spring is the contested convention.

    Last time there were only two real contenders. This time round it could narrow down to Biden/Sanders, but David is right that it’s quite possible three or even four could make it all the way. Buttigieg, of course, really needs to win (or perhaps come a very close second) in Iowa.

    The good news for the Democrats is that it’s most probable that it will be substantially over by March.
    Though Bernie might well do what he did last time and stay in as a spoiler.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,009
    Test
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,629

    Even if Keir Starmer wins, the hard left will not go quietly.. Starmer is going to have a job and a half that's for sure. Attempts will undoubtedly be made to destabilise him.. Momentum don't want to win, they just want their policies, end of.

    SKS will want them to go noisily. That way the voters will notice they've gone.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 1,262
    edited January 18
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger

    Afaics the Trump strategy has now become 'yeah I did what you're accusing me off, so what?'. Depressingly it'll probably work, more depressingly the GOP may not receive a richly deserved blowback from voters for its complicity.
    Watergate did not lead anywhere. Presidents have continued their power-grabs and have continued, let's say questionable, behaviour. Bush's rendition and secret prisons; Reagan's Iran-Contras; Obama's drone war against wedding parties. Trump can do whatever he likes and compliant Senators will look the other way.
    Even Nixon did not believe that he was completely beyond the law. Trump is a genuine gangster.
    Nixon famously told David Frost that:

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,893
    IanB2 said:

    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger

    It is in fact the 20th federal impeachment but don't expect the Guardian to do facts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 25,389
    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Fun to find a subject I agree with Malcom on!

    One of the reasons Malc is one of our best-loved posters is that he doesn't fit into any neat little boxes, and he speaks his own mind rather than parroting whatever is the drivel of the day spouted by his current political lodestar. I think everyone on here strongly agrees with him on at least one issue, but the variety lies in which issue it happens to be!

    I do wonder if we had a less strong party system, whether we'd discover more of our politicians also spent a lot of time secretly agreeing with their opponents about lots of things. There must even be times when we watch a Labour and Tory MP rip shreds out of each other on an issue where privately they both disagree with the position their party leadership has taken and they'd actually each feel more comfortable defending the opposing position...

    All the best to you and your wife @malcolmg if you catch this. Floreat Brassica!

    @MyBurningEars, thank you very much for your kind wishes. If all tests are good today they are going to discharge my wife so fingers crossed, reckon she is better at home now rather than among all the infections in hospital. She has a fair bit to go but on the mend.

    Good news! Best wishes to you both. Hope you are better as well.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,285
    Trump really is vindictive scum . Now trashing the more healthy school lunch programme championed by Michelle Obama and deciding to announce this on her birthday . The US has a severe problem with child obesity and the lunatic in the WH thinks allowing schools to bring back burgers , chips etc is going to help.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,893

    I'm sure the same thread appeared on here 4 years ago?

    Not suggesting it's wrong but like the cuckoo in spring is the contested convention.

    Not from me. Four years ago, I wrote the precise opposite
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 25,389

    IanB2 said:

    Trump’s is the third impeachment in US history and no case has been stronger

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger

    It is in fact the 20th federal impeachment but don't expect the Guardian to do facts.
    Comment is free. Facts are now an optional extra.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,074

    I'm sure the same thread appeared on here 4 years ago?

    Not suggesting it's wrong but like the cuckoo in spring is the contested convention.

    IIRC last time David argued that a brokered convention was unlikely. He is right that the circumstances are different this time - in particular the proportional allocation of delegates combined with the tight bunching of early primaries which will award a high number of delegates.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,275
    Sajid has said there will be no alignment. He also emphasized that manufacturers have had 3years to prepare.

    How?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,893
    rcs1000 said:

    Well... doesn't it depend?

    If Biden wins Iowa, then it's pretty much all over. He's leading the national polling, and there are a lot of moderate votes that come to him as the field narrows.

    And if Buttigieg wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then he stands a serious chance of going all the way to the convention.

    On the other hand, Buttigieg will never get a better chance than in Iowa and New Hampshire, if he doesn't win one of them, then it's all over for him, and you have to reckon he's better throwing his support behind whoever the leading moderate is in return for a promise of a cabinet level appointment.

    The same is probably true of Klobuchar and Yang (and to a lesser extent Steyer).

    And Warren doesn't have a great deal of money, so if she's fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire, then she's probably not going to make it to Super Tuesday (in any real sense) either.

    Finally, the 15% bar really hammers the plethora of candidates currently on 2, 3, 5 or even 7%. They end up with zero, or close to zero, delegates.

    I'd also point out that the superdelegates will largely back the popular vote winner. This means that if it ends (say) 45, 30, 20, 5 in delegates, then the candidate on 45% will probably win the first vote... resulting in a non-contested convention.

    So, I'd reckon a non-contested convention is the most likely outcome - say a 65-75% chance.

    The 15% bar makes it likely that the field will whittle down to 3-5 fairly quickly by clearing out the also-rans but thereafter works against the front-runner.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,074
    nico67 said:

    Trump really is vindictive scum . Now trashing the more healthy school lunch programme championed by Michelle Obama and deciding to announce this on her birthday . The US has a severe problem with child obesity and the lunatic in the WH thinks allowing schools to bring back burgers , chips etc is going to help.

    Surely this should be a matter for state-level decisions,
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,074
    kjh said:

    Sajid has said there will be no alignment. He also emphasized that manufacturers have had 3years to prepare.

    How?

    By moving operations out of the UK.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,285
    kjh said:

    Sajid has said there will be no alignment. He also emphasized that manufacturers have had 3years to prepare.

    How?

    Preparing for trading on rules they don’t even know about yet !

    It would seem ridiculous to not align in certain areas but clearly this rancid government thinks the whole world will start following UK rules .

    The nutjobs really have taken over the country .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,498
    Mr. kjh, to be fair, Javid is a lightweight.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 25,389
    nico67 said:

    but clearly this rancid government thinks

    May I ask what evidence you have for this assertion?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,275

    kjh said:

    Sajid has said there will be no alignment. He also emphasized that manufacturers have had 3years to prepare.

    How?

    By moving operations out of the UK.
    Sigh. I hadn't thought of that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,013

    rcs1000 said:

    Well... doesn't it depend?

    If Biden wins Iowa, then it's pretty much all over. He's leading the national polling, and there are a lot of moderate votes that come to him as the field narrows.

    And if Buttigieg wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then he stands a serious chance of going all the way to the convention.

    On the other hand, Buttigieg will never get a better chance than in Iowa and New Hampshire, if he doesn't win one of them, then it's all over for him, and you have to reckon he's better throwing his support behind whoever the leading moderate is in return for a promise of a cabinet level appointment.

    The same is probably true of Klobuchar and Yang (and to a lesser extent Steyer).

    And Warren doesn't have a great deal of money, so if she's fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire, then she's probably not going to make it to Super Tuesday (in any real sense) either.

    Finally, the 15% bar really hammers the plethora of candidates currently on 2, 3, 5 or even 7%. They end up with zero, or close to zero, delegates.

    I'd also point out that the superdelegates will largely back the popular vote winner. This means that if it ends (say) 45, 30, 20, 5 in delegates, then the candidate on 45% will probably win the first vote... resulting in a non-contested convention.

    So, I'd reckon a non-contested convention is the most likely outcome - say a 65-75% chance.

    The 15% bar makes it likely that the field will whittle down to 3-5 fairly quickly by clearing out the also-rans but thereafter works against the front-runner.
    Interesting discussion. On the whole I take rcs's view - the media like to portray every race as close, but brokered conventions are very rare in practice. I do disagree, though, that Iowa will be decisive for Biden. I think he needs to win most of the first five states to get to that point.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 391
    kjh said:

    Sajid has said there will be no alignment. He also emphasized that manufacturers have had 3years to prepare.

    How?

    Some of the biggest benefits from Brexit will come from being unaligned and more nimble in sectors where there are no current standards - life science, robotics, AI etc.

    Corded products and combustion engines - we will stay aligned as they continue to the end of their product lifecycle.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,013
    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 25,389
    Typical, before I start listening Bess is all over the Saffers like a cheap suit, the moment I wake up he can’t land it on the cut strip.

    I shall go out and sulk.

    Have a good morning.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,750
    nico67 said:

    kjh said:

    Sajid has said there will be no alignment. He also emphasized that manufacturers have had 3years to prepare.

    How?

    Preparing for trading on rules they don’t even know about yet !

    It would seem ridiculous to not align in certain areas but clearly this rancid government thinks the whole world will start following UK rules .

    The nutjobs really have taken over the country .
    How long will it take Joe Bloggs to notice? He apparently took 2.5 years to spot that Corbyn & the 4Ms might be a bit *too* left-wing and that Corbyn had said unwise things about the IRA.

    Incidentally support for EU membership is quite a good test for this. The pragmatic left has long accepted membership, e.g. Lewis, McDonnell and Abbott. No member state can easily get away with breaking the state aid rules. Hence the fuss at ... uh, what? ... a Tory govt breaking them.

    As a counterweight to nutjobs, it's Thornberry or Starmer only I feel. Phillips could do with one more parliament to prove herself.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    ydoethur said:

    Typical, before I start listening Bess is all over the Saffers like a cheap suit, the moment I wake up he can’t land it on the cut strip.

    I shall go out and sulk.

    Have a good morning.

    Don’t know if you can claim that 5th wicket but a very good morning for England. Poor Natje must be wondering what on earth is going on. He’s faced 88 balls as night watchman and seen carnage at the other end.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,767
    edited January 18
    Big moment from Javid this morning, if it's been cleared by his boss. The climate for business-supporting Toryism, or tory-supporting business, about to get very much more difficult and troublesome indeed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729

    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.

    Most likely people who had given up on Labour under the shameful Corbyn regime coming back in the hope that there is still something to save. Probably good for SKS , almost certainly not for RLB.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883
    TGOHF666 said:
    Trying to hammer the square of Corbynism into the circle of the 2019 election defeat through the prism of RLB was always going to be a tricky exercise. It will require a quantum solution....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,246

    TGOHF666 said:
    Trying to hammer the square of Corbynism into the circle of the 2019 election defeat through the prism of RLB was always going to be a tricky exercise. It will require a quantum solution....
    Quantum entanglement or 'spooky action at a distance' (Einstein).
  • isamisam Posts: 29,895
    edited January 18
    Think I’d rather play over the local park and get a part time job

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,984
    edited January 18

    kjh said:

    Sajid has said there will be no alignment. He also emphasized that manufacturers have had 3years to prepare.

    How?

    By moving operations out of the UK.
    If your business model is predicated on current trade rules and the new arrangement is unknown but certain to be worse than the status quo, the rational way to prepare is to move operations to a place where the status quo holds.

    The thought clearly hasn't occurred to Javid (and most Leavers). If it had, Javid wouldn't have spoken in the interview in the way he did. Politicians are careful with words.
  • isamisam Posts: 29,895
    Milwaukee has certainly had its share of visitors. The French missionaries and explorers began visiting in the late 16th century. In fact , it's pronounced "mill-e-wah-que" which is Algonquin for "the good land."
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,984
    HYUFD said:
    Javid setting up a hostage to fortune. Meyer wades in.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,498
    Mr. Isam, excellent.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Fun to find a subject I agree with Malcom on!

    One of the reasons Malc is one of our best-loved posters is that he doesn't fit into any neat little boxes, and he speaks his own mind rather than parroting whatever is the drivel of the day spouted by his current political lodestar. I think everyone on here strongly agrees with him on at least one issue, but the variety lies in which issue it happens to be!

    I do wonder if we had a less strong party system, whether we'd discover more of our politicians also spent a lot of time secretly agreeing with their opponents about lots of things. There must even be times when we watch a Labour and Tory MP rip shreds out of each other on an issue where privately they both disagree with the position their party leadership has taken and they'd actually each feel more comfortable defending the opposing position...

    All the best to you and your wife @malcolmg if you catch this. Floreat Brassica!

    @MyBurningEars, thank you very much for your kind wishes. If all tests are good today they are going to discharge my wife so fingers crossed, reckon she is better at home now rather than among all the infections in hospital. She has a fair bit to go but on the mend.

    Pleased to hear that. Best wishes to you both.

    It is only in the last day or so that I have felt remotely like myself again. A shock to be laid low so badly. Fortunately it is a glorious day here - clear, right and sunny so after my eggs Benedict I will go for a walk to the estuary.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616
    isam said:

    Milwaukee has certainly had its share of visitors. The French missionaries and explorers began visiting in the late 16th century. In fact , it's pronounced "mill-e-wah-que" which is Algonquin for "the good land."

    Notorious for excessive drinking according to the moderately famous song.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,013
    Cyclefree said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Fun to find a subject I agree with Malcom on!

    One of the reasons Malc is one of our best-loved posters is that he doesn't fit into any neat little boxes, and he speaks his own mind rather than parroting whatever is the drivel of the day spouted by his current political lodestar. I think everyone on here strongly agrees with him on at least one issue, but the variety lies in which issue it happens to be!

    I do wonder if we had a less strong party system, whether we'd discover more of our politicians also spent a lot of time secretly agreeing with their opponents about lots of things. There must even be times when we watch a Labour and Tory MP rip shreds out of each other on an issue where privately they both disagree with the position their party leadership has taken and they'd actually each feel more comfortable defending the opposing position...

    All the best to you and your wife @malcolmg if you catch this. Floreat Brassica!

    @MyBurningEars, thank you very much for your kind wishes. If all tests are good today they are going to discharge my wife so fingers crossed, reckon she is better at home now rather than among all the infections in hospital. She has a fair bit to go but on the mend.

    Pleased to hear that. Best wishes to you both.

    It is only in the last day or so that I have felt remotely like myself again. A shock to be laid low so badly. Fortunately it is a glorious day here - clear, right and sunny so after my eggs Benedict I will go for a walk to the estuary.
    Good to hear of pb brothers and sisters and their loved ones on the mend - best wishes for continued recovery.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883
    Cyclefree said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    » show previous quotes
    Fun to find a subject I agree with Malcom on!

    One of the reasons Malc is one of our best-loved posters is that he doesn't fit into any neat little boxes, and he speaks his own mind rather than parroting whatever is the drivel of the day spouted by his current political lodestar. I think everyone on here strongly agrees with him on at least one issue, but the variety lies in which issue it happens to be!

    I do wonder if we had a less strong party system, whether we'd discover more of our politicians also spent a lot of time secretly agreeing with their opponents about lots of things. There must even be times when we watch a Labour and Tory MP rip shreds out of each other on an issue where privately they both disagree with the position their party leadership has taken and they'd actually each feel more comfortable defending the opposing position...

    All the best to you and your wife @malcolmg if you catch this. Floreat Brassica!

    @MyBurningEars, thank you very much for your kind wishes. If all tests are good today they are going to discharge my wife so fingers crossed, reckon she is better at home now rather than among all the infections in hospital. She has a fair bit to go but on the mend.

    Pleased to hear that. Best wishes to you both.

    It is only in the last day or so that I have felt remotely like myself again. A shock to be laid low so badly. Fortunately it is a glorious day here - clear, right and sunny so after my eggs Benedict I will go for a walk to the estuary.
    Glad to hear you are on the mend. Fabulous day in south Devon - haircut, then walk the dog down to the lighthouse at Start Point.....

    https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Start_Point,_Devon
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    Tim Farron 'The 3 things progressives must do to defeat the Tories'

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/progressives-defeat-tories-next-election-2024
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,689
    TGOHF666 said:
    The quote ends "... adopt a softer left position."

    So basically the aides that RLB recruited herself from her own staff and that of Corbyn/McDonnell want to pursue a harder far left strategy than does Lansman.

    No doubt about it - she is continuity Corbyn and as extreme as they come.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron 'The 3 things progressives must do to defeat the Tories'

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/progressives-defeat-tories-next-election-2024

    Farron argues the 3 are:

    1. Defeat the SNP.
    2. Detoxify Labour.
    3. Deploy the LDs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 13,228
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Milwaukee has certainly had its share of visitors. The French missionaries and explorers began visiting in the late 16th century. In fact , it's pronounced "mill-e-wah-que" which is Algonquin for "the good land."

    Notorious for excessive drinking according to the moderately famous song.
    Milwaukee is the Burton of the USA, famous for beer production. Not that mainstream US beer is up to much.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,004
    DavidL said:

    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.

    Most likely people who had given up on Labour under the shameful Corbyn regime coming back in the hope that there is still something to save. Probably good for SKS , almost certainly not for RLB.

    I rejoined on the day Corbyn announced he was standing down. I know many others who have done the same. It's just over £4 a month DD, so why not?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,004
    TGOHF666 said:
    The counter-factual is that now the rows have happened and people have walked out the messaging will get a lot more coherent. The interesting thing is that those who believe that tacking more to the centre is the right way to go have won out. The issue is whether it is a genuine move or not. Given that Jon Lansman is running the Long-Bailey campaign, I suspect "not" is the answer, especially given who introduced her last night.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,689

    Even if Keir Starmer wins, the hard left will not go quietly.. Starmer is going to have a job and a half that's for sure. Attempts will undoubtedly be made to destabilise him.. Momentum don't want to win, they just want their policies, end of.

    There will be a significant shift in the balance of the NEC. Corbyn will go, as will the front bench appointees from the Shadow Cabinet: RLB, Abbot and Trickett. Momentum won't be able to have it all their own way any longer and a lot of votes will depend on the trade union delegates.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,629
    edited January 18

    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.

    Quite a few of my LiberalElite™ university friends (me included) have joined Labour in the last month to vote for Keir so that anecdote fits with my experience.

    P.S. when is your CLP nomination meeting happening?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,629
    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    Before I go - the Times front page. Oof!!

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,689

    DavidL said:

    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.

    Most likely people who had given up on Labour under the shameful Corbyn regime coming back in the hope that there is still something to save. Probably good for SKS , almost certainly not for RLB.

    I rejoined on the day Corbyn announced he was standing down. I know many others who have done the same. It's just over £4 a month DD, so why not?

    I rejoined the Monday after the GE. £2.21 per month DD, unwaged. I'll either cancel it in April if RLB is elected, or otherwise supplement it with a regular donation.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    Fifth! Like Rebecca Wrong Daily....(in my dreams, more likely to be the much better Lady Nugee...)

    Odd that you insist on calling a professional woman by her husband’s name Carlotta!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,013

    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.

    Quite a few of my LiberalElite™ university friends (me included) have joined Labour in the last month to vote for Keir so that anecdote fits with my experience.

    P.S. when is your CLP nomination meeting happening?
    Feb 6. Celebrate my 70th birthday the previous day in suitable style. Some of us know how to have fun!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,629

    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.

    Quite a few of my LiberalElite™ university friends (me included) have joined Labour in the last month to vote for Keir so that anecdote fits with my experience.

    P.S. when is your CLP nomination meeting happening?
    Feb 6. Celebrate my 70th birthday the previous day in suitable style. Some of us know how to have fun!
    We share the same birthday! 42 years apart though... ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    DavidL said:

    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.

    Most likely people who had given up on Labour under the shameful Corbyn regime coming back in the hope that there is still something to save. Probably good for SKS , almost certainly not for RLB.

    I rejoined on the day Corbyn announced he was standing down. I know many others who have done the same. It's just over £4 a month DD, so why not?

    I rejoined the Monday after the GE. £2.21 per month DD, unwaged. I'll either cancel it in April if RLB is elected, or otherwise supplement it with a regular donation.
    I thought you were a Tory?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,893

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    No Deal does beckon I don't know why so many people don't see this.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 33,613
    rcs1000 said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/17/boris-johnson-expected-open-trade-talks-us-negotiating-eu/

    I think there's a degree of naivety here.

    1. Even in a perfect world, a UK-US trade deal is not going to be concluded in less than 18 months. (And may not be possible at all given the large number of Conservative MPs who are from rural constituencies.)

    2. But pretend that isn't true: even if you swapped an EU deal for a US deal overnight, it would still result in disruption to the British economy.

    I asked a minister in the Department for International Trade straight up that question on Thursday: is there any US-UK trade deal that will pass both Congress and Westminster?

    The minister shook their head. Instead, they believe that sector-by-sector micro deals are more likely.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,756

    DavidL said:

    O/T: my (not particularly active or prominent) CLP has increased its membership by 25% since the election. Make of it what you will, but it's likely to be typical. We have no polling data on these members (since both polls conducted so far have focused on people who were already members). Nor do I have much clue what they think, though I'd guess that most super-Corbynites were members already.

    Most likely people who had given up on Labour under the shameful Corbyn regime coming back in the hope that there is still something to save. Probably good for SKS , almost certainly not for RLB.

    I rejoined on the day Corbyn announced he was standing down. I know many others who have done the same. It's just over £4 a month DD, so why not?

    I haven't rejoined but have registered as a supporter to get a vote. Whether I rejoin or not will depend on who becomes leader.
  • HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    I cannot see any benefit unless we diverge to enable us to be flexible in our ex EU trade deals. Sajid is saying it as it is and of course there is a chorus of complaints from those who cannot see anything but BINO

    I would not be surprised if HMG does refuse any attempt to hold us to a LPF and no doubt Boris will be on a plane to the US in February to start trade talks much to the anger of many remainers who cannot accept the UK is moving away from the EU

    I do not think there will be a no deal but a very bare bones deal by the end of the year is more likely than a FTA
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,013



    We share the same birthday! 42 years apart though... ;)

    Ah, time to reveal that I'm your grandfather...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,866

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    No Deal does beckon I don't know why so many people don't see this.
    Perhaps because people who have been predicting No Deal have been repeatedly wrong so far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    edited January 18

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    What we will get in December is a very basic trade deal that minimises tariffs for goods, however given the Government's desire to leave the single market and customs union and dealign in terms of EU regulations, there is not going to be any trade deal for services, especially not financial services and of course free movement of prople will end. Canada plus looks over ambitious at this point
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    Struggling to see many advantages of a trade deal with the US, to be honest. Have any of its advocates visited a US supermarket recently, and witnessed the garbage that passes for food over there?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,329

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    I cannot see any benefit unless we diverge to enable us to be flexible in our ex EU trade deals. Sajid is saying it as it is and of course there is a chorus of complaints from those who cannot see anything but BINO

    I would not be surprised if HMG does refuse any attempt to hold us to a LPF and no doubt Boris will be on a plane to the US in February to start trade talks much to the anger of many remainers who cannot accept the UK is moving away from the EU

    I do not think there will be a no deal but a very bare bones deal by the end of the year is more likely than a FTA
    If it were tory policy to rejoin with Schengen, Euro and some sort of banana related regulation you'd be saying how brilliant it's going to be.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,629

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    I cannot see any benefit unless we diverge to enable us to be flexible in our ex EU trade deals. Sajid is saying it as it is and of course there is a chorus of complaints from those who cannot see anything but BINO

    I would not be surprised if HMG does refuse any attempt to hold us to a LPF and no doubt Boris will be on a plane to the US in February to start trade talks much to the anger of many remainers who cannot accept the UK is moving away from the EU

    I do not think there will be a no deal but a very bare bones deal by the end of the year is more likely than a FTA
    You speak sense but how can you reconcile everything?

    A trade deal with the US looks very unlikely.
    A trade deal with the EU without some sort of LPF provision looks very unlikely.

    So what do we do? Something has to break.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,893

    rcs1000 said:

    Well... doesn't it depend?

    If Biden wins Iowa, then it's pretty much all over. He's leading the national polling, and there are a lot of moderate votes that come to him as the field narrows.

    And if Buttigieg wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then he stands a serious chance of going all the way to the convention.

    On the other hand, Buttigieg will never get a better chance than in Iowa and New Hampshire, if he doesn't win one of them, then it's all over for him, and you have to reckon he's better throwing his support behind whoever the leading moderate is in return for a promise of a cabinet level appointment.

    The same is probably true of Klobuchar and Yang (and to a lesser extent Steyer).

    And Warren doesn't have a great deal of money, so if she's fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire, then she's probably not going to make it to Super Tuesday (in any real sense) either.

    Finally, the 15% bar really hammers the plethora of candidates currently on 2, 3, 5 or even 7%. They end up with zero, or close to zero, delegates.

    I'd also point out that the superdelegates will largely back the popular vote winner. This means that if it ends (say) 45, 30, 20, 5 in delegates, then the candidate on 45% will probably win the first vote... resulting in a non-contested convention.

    So, I'd reckon a non-contested convention is the most likely outcome - say a 65-75% chance.

    The 15% bar makes it likely that the field will whittle down to 3-5 fairly quickly by clearing out the also-rans but thereafter works against the front-runner.
    Interesting discussion. On the whole I take rcs's view - the media like to portray every race as close, but brokered conventions are very rare in practice. I do disagree, though, that Iowa will be decisive for Biden. I think he needs to win most of the first five states to get to that point.
    I know they're rare. I did say that in the intro I'm making the prediction with that in mind But we need to look forward as well as back
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,767
    edited January 18
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    What we will get in December is a very basic trade deal that minimises tariffs for goods, however given the Government's desire to leave the single market and customs union and dealign in terms of EU regulations, there is not going to be any trade deal for services, especially not financial services and of course free movement of prople will end. Canada plus looks over ambitious at this point
    There is no scenario with a bare-bones and ad hoc deal for goods and no services deal that doesn't result in recession, possibly quite a major one.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,629
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    What we will get in December is a very basic trade deal that minimises tariffs for goods, however given the Government's desire to leave the single market and customs union and dealign in terms of EU regulations, there is not going to be any trade deal for services, especially not financial services and of course free movement of prople will end. Canada plus looks over ambitious at this point
    And do you foresee any negative economic consequences to that eventuality?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,225
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim Farron 'The 3 things progressives must do to defeat the Tories'

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/progressives-defeat-tories-next-election-2024

    Farron argues the 3 are:

    1. Defeat the SNP.
    2. Detoxify Labour.
    3. Deploy the LDs.
    Meanwhile the Tories have the task of:

    Defeating the SNP secure in the knowledge that if they don't succeed England and Wales become much easier for Tories to win, and more difficult for the left

    Retoxifying Labour. So far the Tories have had to do nothing and let Labour toxify itself.

    Ensuring that the LDs are popular enough to take some votes off Labour where necessary, and vice versa.

    I wonder which group has the easier job?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,866

    Struggling to see many advantages of a trade deal with the US, to be honest. Have any of its advocates visited a US supermarket recently, and witnessed the garbage that passes for food over there?

    Likewise you can go to ASDA and see what garbage passes for food in much of Europe.

    We're very fortunate in the range, quality and price of food we have in this country.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,004
    edited January 18

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    No Deal does beckon I don't know why so many people don't see this.

    No Deal is a relative term. We do actually have a deal to prevent a complete no deal. The Irish border issue has been resolved, as have the UK's payments to the EU, so there should be less acrimoney - which is a good thing.

    What we are facing is the failure to agree an FTA. Of course, at a minimum that will mean significant extra burdens for UK exporters to the single market in both goods and services, as well as higher priced EU imports. But the government has a mandate for that to happen if necessary, so there should be few if any grumbles!!

  • Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    I cannot see any benefit unless we diverge to enable us to be flexible in our ex EU trade deals. Sajid is saying it as it is and of course there is a chorus of complaints from those who cannot see anything but BINO

    I would not be surprised if HMG does refuse any attempt to hold us to a LPF and no doubt Boris will be on a plane to the US in February to start trade talks much to the anger of many remainers who cannot accept the UK is moving away from the EU

    I do not think there will be a no deal but a very bare bones deal by the end of the year is more likely than a FTA
    If it were tory policy to rejoin with Schengen, Euro and some sort of banana related regulation you'd be saying how brilliant it's going to be.
    I am not saying any of this is brilliant.

    However, pragmatism trumps (sorry about any connection to the idiotic US president) intransigent positions from both sides
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Struggling to see many advantages of a trade deal with the US, to be honest. Have any of its advocates visited a US supermarket recently, and witnessed the garbage that passes for food over there?

    I think the main aim is diplomacy. Trump only wants to talk trade, rebuff him and he reacts, so talking trade with him keeps him at bay. We should make a condition the removal of the tariffs on Scottish Fire Water, that he imposed when in a huff with the EU.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    What we will get in December is a very basic trade deal that minimises tariffs for goods, however given the Government's desire to leave the single market and customs union and dealign in terms of EU regulations, there is not going to be any trade deal for services, especially not financial services and of course free movement of prople will end. Canada plus looks over ambitious at this point
    There is no scenario with a bare-bones and ad hoc deal for goods and no services deal that doesn't result in recession, possibly quite a major one.
    Which Tory voters on December 12th voted for. So if this happens there won’t be any complaints from any of them, will there? :)
  • HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    I cannot see any benefit unless we diverge to enable us to be flexible in our ex EU trade deals. Sajid is saying it as it is and of course there is a chorus of complaints from those who cannot see anything but BINO

    I would not be surprised if HMG does refuse any attempt to hold us to a LPF and no doubt Boris will be on a plane to the US in February to start trade talks much to the anger of many remainers who cannot accept the UK is moving away from the EU

    I do not think there will be a no deal but a very bare bones deal by the end of the year is more likely than a FTA
    You speak sense but how can you reconcile everything?

    A trade deal with the US looks very unlikely.
    A trade deal with the EU without some sort of LPF provision looks very unlikely.

    So what do we do? Something has to break.
    I agree that things will be choppy and I do not see a US trade deal with Trump, but no doubt sector by sector deals will happen, both with the EU and US

    I cannot see a glorious new beginning but neither do I see a disaster

    The one thing that is certain is that it will be fascinating to watch over the coming months and years
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    Struggling to see many advantages of a trade deal with the US, to be honest. Have any of its advocates visited a US supermarket recently, and witnessed the garbage that passes for food over there?

    Likewise you can go to ASDA and see what garbage passes for food in much of Europe.

    We're very fortunate in the range, quality and price of food we have in this country.
    Indeed, so why do we need to import the shite they eat over there? Food standards in the States are lower than here.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Also watch out for Ministerial visits to Asia, we are more likely to sign up to CPTPP than a US deal in my view.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    I cannot see any benefit unless we diverge to enable us to be flexible in our ex EU trade deals. Sajid is saying it as it is and of course there is a chorus of complaints from those who cannot see anything but BINO

    I would not be surprised if HMG does refuse any attempt to hold us to a LPF and no doubt Boris will be on a plane to the US in February to start trade talks much to the anger of many remainers who cannot accept the UK is moving away from the EU

    I do not think there will be a no deal but a very bare bones deal by the end of the year is more likely than a FTA
    You speak sense but how can you reconcile everything?

    A trade deal with the US looks very unlikely.
    A trade deal with the EU without some sort of LPF provision looks very unlikely.

    So what do we do? Something has to break.
    What the fuck is a LPF? Google (sorry DuckDuck Go) not helping me here!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,629

    HYUFD said:
    This is likely to be rubbish. I expect a repeat of the Irish Sea nonsense: we sign up to a LPF but the Government insists we can diverge.

    Otherwise no deal beckons...
    I cannot see any benefit unless we diverge to enable us to be flexible in our ex EU trade deals. Sajid is saying it as it is and of course there is a chorus of complaints from those who cannot see anything but BINO

    I would not be surprised if HMG does refuse any attempt to hold us to a LPF and no doubt Boris will be on a plane to the US in February to start trade talks much to the anger of many remainers who cannot accept the UK is moving away from the EU

    I do not think there will be a no deal but a very bare bones deal by the end of the year is more likely than a FTA
    You speak sense but how can you reconcile everything?

    A trade deal with the US looks very unlikely.
    A trade deal with the EU without some sort of LPF provision looks very unlikely.

    So what do we do? Something has to break.
    I agree that things will be choppy and I do not see a US trade deal with Trump, but no doubt sector by sector deals will happen, both with the EU and US

    I cannot see a glorious new beginning but neither do I see a disaster

    The one thing that is certain is that it will be fascinating to watch over the coming months and years
    Won’t sector by sector deals be politically difficult?

    MPs wont be happy if the primary employers in their constituencies don’t get deals and others do.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616

    I thought you were a Tory?

    So did I!

    Poor textual analysis by both of us.
This discussion has been closed.