We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Mighty migration flows to the prosperous areas. Prior to the 2015 immigration, people in the ex-DDR area were down by three million, or twenty per cent. A few cities did not shrink, like (East) Berlin, but that is it. So wages adjusted to account for the lower labour supply.
Almost all European countries face the same problem as the UK in so far as successful young people want to be married to other SYP, to reap the proven gains of changing from employer to employer, and to go on business travel and nice holidays to other countries. But only Paris matches London, in the measure of how many of the best people in the world in their fields work near London.
The problem is anyone who gains from proximity to law, finance, venture capital, aviation, or media and publicity, gains from being near London. The only level-up solution I see is a general increase in corporation tax, plus tax-free zones far from the home counties, so that the firms which gain less from London's scale benefits are outside the capital and are taxed less.
WFH and video communication should have changed this at a professional level. I know it can because I do it in, living and working areas which are not near London despite hitting a number of the areas in your final paragraph. That this does not happen is a weakness of management. Perhaps the solution is to make public transport in the South East utterly appalling....
I think it will happen more and more. The cost implication is just too promising to employers to make them worry about the productivity implication. Looks to me like it works really well in sectors where you can negotiate salary, promotions or new jobs on the basis of provable contribution and output metrics.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Mighty migration flows to the prosperous areas. Prior to the 2015 immigration, people in the ex-DDR area were down by three million, or twenty per cent. A few cities did not shrink, like (East) Berlin, but that is it. So wages adjusted to account for the lower labour supply.
Almost all European countries face the same problem as the UK in so far as successful young people want to be married to other SYP, to reap the proven gains of changing from employer to employer, and to go on business travel and nice holidays to other countries. But only Paris matches London, in the measure of how many of the best people in the world in their fields work near London.
The problem is anyone who gains from proximity to law, finance, venture capital, aviation, or media and publicity, gains from being near London. The only level-up solution I see is a general increase in corporation tax, plus tax-free zones far from the home counties, so that the firms which gain less from London's scale benefits are outside the capital and are taxed less.
WFH and video communication should have changed this at a professional level. I know it can because I do it in, living and working areas which are not near London despite hitting a number of the areas in your final paragraph. That this does not happen is a weakness of management. Perhaps the solution is to make public transport in the South East utterly appalling....
I think it will happen more and more. The cost implication is just too promising to employers to make them worry about the productivity implication. Looks to me like it works really well in sectors where you can negotiate salary, promotions or new jobs on the basis of provable contribution and output metrics.
Perhaps. But look back 20 years and the same WFH discussions were around (I suggested relocating our department to Frankfurt given we didn’t need to be in London - not well received). People see value in offices. More hotdesking and open plan might make it less appealing but ultimately it comes down to trust. And, in particular in joint income households, both employers being of similar minds.
But I also think WFH / teleworking is more an issue that will affect every region and every country's city-town-periphery trade-offs, whereas London is SPECIFICALLY affected by an extra factor not gracing / afflicting Edinburgh or Madrid, which is proximity to the social networks of global decision-makers in regulation, publicity, finance, venture capital, defamation law ... dealing out potentially huge benefits to a firm if you play your cards right, and small benefits to most firms in any case, from being able to draw on the skills pools, or sell services to their consumers or employees... The benefits of those networks could be taxed readily if we reckon they are stuck and can't flee to somewhere like Dublin or Frankfurt.
But I also think WFH / teleworking is more an issue that will affect every region and every country's city-town-periphery trade-offs, whereas London is SPECIFICALLY affected by an extra factor not gracing / afflicting Edinburgh or Madrid, which is proximity to the social networks of global decision-makers in regulation, publicity, finance, venture capital, defamation law ... dealing out potentially huge benefits to a firm if you play your cards right, and small benefits to most firms in any case, from being able to draw on the skills pools, or sell services to their consumers or employees... The benefits of those networks could be taxed readily if we reckon they are stuck and can't flee to somewhere like Dublin or Frankfurt.
I’ve lived and worked in both of those cities (also a couple of others in the EU which are better). Fleeing to either is more appealing than Caracas or Zurich. Just.
Perhaps. But look back 20 years and the same WFH discussions were around (I suggested relocating our department to Frankfurt given we didn’t need to be in London - not well received). People see value in offices. More hotdesking and open plan might make it less appealing but ultimately it comes down to trust. And, in particular in joint income households, both employers being of similar minds.
Absolutely. Why I think I update my view is the cost of rent. That is up to pre-crisis levels in many places. So I suppose it will affect the most progressive and productive employers first, who are being held to account for every line item of spend. If you are owned by people who don't care or are over-paying for the benefits of being in London due to prestige illusion, then maybe you are not going to get teleworking.
Barely 5 weeks after an election with Christmas and New Year in between, is anyone remotely surprised?
Let's see where we are in 6 months and 12 months time?
Actually I am a little surprised that it isn't more. Considering how low Labour had fallen before the election was called it's interesting it has remained relatively buoyant. Part of that may be expectation now that Corbyn is leaving, but it is at least of ray of sunshine for the reds.
Both Labour and the Lib Dems down. Devastating for the left. They are both apparently oblivious to the legion of Rejoin votes out there up for grabs.
Not really. People tend to like being associated with the winners. Once a new government starts to have an impact on people’s lives, and it has time to sink in, they get assessed on a different basis. And neither of the opposition parties has a new leader yet.
Actually I am a little surprised that it isn't more. Considering how low Labour had fallen before the election was called it's interesting it has remained relatively buoyant. Part of that may be expectation now that Corbyn is leaving, but it is at least of ray of sunshine for the reds.
No one, apart from on here and similar forums, has given politics a moment's thought since 12/12. The Conservatives will obviously have another reason for a good gloat at everyone else's expense and that's fine.
As you say, once the shine comes off Johnson's "Glorious Revolution", the polls will become much more enjoyable for the rest of us.
Anyway, in a case of “be careful what you wish for”, my firm encourages its lawyers to use social media to enhance the firm’s profile and to project a human image of its people as sparky professionals. I also use it to give throwaway views on politics that occur to me that don’t seem particularly to fit here. Naturally I hope to impress people with the incisiveness of my thought.
This week I posted by far my most successful tweet by stats. Here it is:
Barely 5 weeks after an election with Christmas and New Year in between, is anyone remotely surprised?
Let's see where we are in 6 months and 12 months time?
Actually I am a little surprised that it isn't more. Considering how low Labour had fallen before the election was called it's interesting it has remained relatively buoyant. Part of that may be expectation now that Corbyn is leaving, but it is at least of ray of sunshine for the reds.
Why does it matter? It seems wholly irrelevant now (or indeed in 6 or 12 months). In 36 months it might be relevant. Possibly.
"42% of voters say they believe Johnson is doing a better job as Prime Minister then they expected when he first took on the job. A third (33%) say he is performing badly, as expected, or worse than they expected. Further to this, two in five (39%) say their opinion of Johnson has become more positive since the general election."
"42% of voters say they believe Johnson is doing a better job as Prime Minister then they expected when he first took on the job. A third (33%) say he is performing badly, as expected, or worse than they expected. Further to this, two in five (39%) say their opinion of Johnson has become more positive since the general election."
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
Labour does at least appear to have held on to most of the gain in vote share achieved during the election campaign. Less than three weeks before Polling Day Opinium had Labour on 28% and showed a Tory lead of 19%
Harry and Meghan Give Up Royal Titles, Forgo State Funding The agreement represents one of the most dramatic ruptures within the British royal family since King Edward VIII abdicated the throne in 1936 to marry an American woman, Wallis Simpson.
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
Labour does at least appear to have held on to most of the gain in vote share achieved during the election campaign. Less than three weeks before Polling Day Opinium had Labour on 28% and showed a Tory lead of 19%
Why, to be bold and to borrow your comment, is that relevant?
So has Harry given up his right to the throne? If (god forbid) something happens to William and family does he still become King after Charles? If not, then Andrew?!
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
Interesting piece on a subject we don't see much discussed except in political soundbites.
An alternative model to more companies outside London is really good train services to London. That's basically how a lot of the Home Counties thrive, and if HS2 does happen (I'm not yet convinced it will or should) then I can see people living in the Midlands and working in London. It's not as attractive a prospect as developing more prosperous centres around the country, but may be more realistic for some time.
People already live in Coventry and commute to London. Only an hour and a half to Euston. I used to know someone who’s commute from Surrey to Hemel Hempstead took longer.
So has Harry given up his right to the throne? If (god forbid) something happens to William and family does he still become King after Charles? If not, then Andrew?!
I think we should have a vote on it.
When a King/Queen dies, all their children or grandchildren should be eligible for election as next monarch. To be on the short-list they would need the support of at least 15% of their peers. Then the public votes on the short-list. Winner takes all.
It keeps it in the family; avoids a Blair or Sugar President; it avoids an Andrew becoming King, it's semi- democratic. What's not to like?
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
Labour does at least appear to have held on to most of the gain in vote share achieved during the election campaign. Less than three weeks before Polling Day Opinium had Labour on 28% and showed a Tory lead of 19%
Why, to be bold and to borrow your comment, is that relevant?
It might have some relevance to the more psephologically aware.
The Sussexes will no longer use their titles as they are no longer working members of the Royal Family
The Palace has done well with that deal.
The Queen has been excellent in drawing this to a conclusion including Harry and Megan repaying the 2.5 million paid for restoration of Frogmore Cottage and preventing them using HRH
I fully support the Queen's decision and I hope Harry and Megan succeed in their new life in Canada
I really cannot see how anyone can object to this solution
I’m always surprised that anyone gives even a fraction of a fuck. They are all borne on the world’s most luxurious welfare state, two million quid for doing up a cottage is a rounding error.
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
Labour does at least appear to have held on to most of the gain in vote share achieved during the election campaign. Less than three weeks before Polling Day Opinium had Labour on 28% and showed a Tory lead of 19%
Why, to be bold and to borrow your comment, is that relevant?
It might have some relevance to the more psephologically aware.
Yes, I get that you are very clever.
Why, in the context of the next GE being 5 years in the future, is it relevant?
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
What minuscule effect the contest will have on this polling is bound to be negative. The candidates have mostly been talking about what Labour did wrong and how it needs to change.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
Labour does at least appear to have held on to most of the gain in vote share achieved during the election campaign. Less than three weeks before Polling Day Opinium had Labour on 28% and showed a Tory lead of 19%
Why, to be bold and to borrow your comment, is that relevant?
It might have some relevance to the more psephologically aware.
Yes, I get that you are very clever.
Why, in the context of the next GE being 5 years in the future, is it relevant?
You might as well ask the pollsters why they are bothering to conduct such surveys - given that an election is unlikely before Spring 2024. As for relevance, I am content to allow others to decide that for themselves.
Tom Watson??? Really!! Has Operation Midland passed them by?
It’s irrelevant. Which political party was targeted? Watson is many things but ultimately a loyalist. Ex-MPs of a similar type also post here,
OK. Maybe I’m naive in expecting some probity in public life. But Watson played an important role in perpetrating gross injustices to innocent people and in the corrosion of the police’s role in investigating really serious charges.
NFW should he be rewarded with a peerage. We may as well give Sir Fred Goodwin a peerage and let him become a legislator.
FFS!!! Can’t we have some standards somewhere in public life. Just some. Please.
Rather than simply rewarding arse-licking loyalty no matter how dishonest and incompetent.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have you looked at population movements?
I spend a reasonable amount of time talking to Eastern German businesses - the one consistent complaint is they can’t get any staff
Enterprise zones with tax rebates plus enabling infrastructure.
Think Docklands as an example
That’s been obvious from a distance. Which was why Heseltine’ s Times letter last week was interesting (if reeking of the stagnant odour of nostalgia and the good old days.
So has Harry given up his right to the throne? If (god forbid) something happens to William and family does he still become King after Charles? If not, then Andrew?!
No, Harry is just not using his title as he is not undertaking royal duties, he remains in line for the throne if Charles had died or abdicated and anything happened to William (though of course George would become King if he was still around before Harry anyway). I also suspect Meghan would quickly rediscover a sudden love of royal duties if she was going to become Queen of the UK
This hustings format is pretty rubbish. Sound byte after sound byte. They need to have an actual debate.
In this format, Long-Bailey actually comes across very well. She did as well as any of them except maybe Thornberry (my #1/#2 are Nandy/Starmer btw). They really need a moderator who is a little bit adversarial - not Andrew Neil but Andrew Marr - since they can't get away with being too aggressive towards one another.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
Falls into the nice place to live category, though. There has been immigration, not emigration since reunification, unlike much of the rest of the old GDR. And the previous GDR economy there was largely agricultural, so industrial decline doesn’t apply... and tourism has increased greatly since reunification.
Not convinced that anyone deliberately ‘created’ any of that.
Tom Watson??? Really!! Has Operation Midland passed them by?
It’s irrelevant. Which political party was targeted? Watson is many things but ultimately a loyalist. Ex-MPs of a similar type also post here,
OK. Maybe I’m naive in expecting some probity in public life. But Watson played an important role in perpetrating gross injustices to innocent people and in the corrosion of the police’s role in investigating really serious charges.
NFW should he be rewarded with a peerage. We may as well give Sir Fred Goodwin a peerage and let him become a legislator.
FFS!!! Can’t we have some standards somewhere in public life. Just some. Please.
He didn’t resign when he could have made a difference. Loyalty is recognised. We have standards. You don’t like them but they are there and have always been there. It’s just that MPs think they are different- see the the haiographic interview of Flint in today’s Times for a implicit statement of this and consider how the husband was employed,
Barely 5 weeks after an election with Christmas and New Year in between, is anyone remotely surprised?
Let's see where we are in 6 months and 12 months time?
Actually I am a little surprised that it isn't more. Considering how low Labour had fallen before the election was called it's interesting it has remained relatively buoyant. Part of that may be expectation now that Corbyn is leaving, but it is at least of ray of sunshine for the reds.
Why does it matter? It seems wholly irrelevant now (or indeed in 6 or 12 months). In 36 months it might be relevant. Possibly.
Who’s wasting their money on this nonsense?
Calm down dear, it's only a poll.
And as Justin pointed out there are useful lessons to draw from polling outside a GE.
It's also a useful reference point to compare polling post-leadership election. Plus there's locals in a few months.
Tom Watson??? Really!! Has Operation Midland passed them by?
It’s irrelevant. Which political party was targeted? Watson is many things but ultimately a loyalist. Ex-MPs of a similar type also post here,
OK. Maybe I’m naive in expecting some probity in public life. But Watson played an important role in perpetrating gross injustices to innocent people and in the corrosion of the police’s role in investigating really serious charges.
NFW should he be rewarded with a peerage. We may as well give Sir Fred Goodwin a peerage and let him become a legislator.
FFS!!! Can’t we have some standards somewhere in public life. Just some. Please.
Rather than simply rewarding arse-licking loyalty no matter how dishonest and incompetent.
Honestly, I give up.
The sad thing is that his loyalty to the institution of the Labour party, which arguably prevented its fragmentation under Corbyn, outweighs any considerations of principle.
Toe the party line, and you might get a peerage is a very old message indeed.
Barely 5 weeks after an election with Christmas and New Year in between, is anyone remotely surprised?
Let's see where we are in 6 months and 12 months time?
Actually I am a little surprised that it isn't more. Considering how low Labour had fallen before the election was called it's interesting it has remained relatively buoyant. Part of that may be expectation now that Corbyn is leaving, but it is at least of ray of sunshine for the reds.
Why does it matter? It seems wholly irrelevant now (or indeed in 6 or 12 months). In 36 months it might be relevant. Possibly.
Who’s wasting their money on this nonsense?
Calm down dear, it's only a poll.
And as Justin pointed out there are useful lessons to draw from polling outside a GE.
It's also a useful reference point to compare polling post-leadership election. Plus there's locals in a few months.
Far more useful would be polling comparing Labour under Starmer, Long Bailey, Phillips etc v the Tories as we had at the time of the Tory leadership election with voting intentions under a Boris led Tories, a Hunt led Tories, a Gove led Tories etc.
Polling with Corbyn as leader is irrelevant giving he will be gone in 3 months
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
Labour does at least appear to have held on to most of the gain in vote share achieved during the election campaign. Less than three weeks before Polling Day Opinium had Labour on 28% and showed a Tory lead of 19%
Why, to be bold and to borrow your comment, is that relevant?
It might have some relevance to the more psephologically aware.
Yes, I get that you are very clever.
Why, in the context of the next GE being 5 years in the future, is it relevant?
I think that the pollsters like to do them continually so they can look back at unbroken data sets and pick up trends.
It will also give us a newer base link to assess a new Lab leader from, if after the new leader is elected they are on 31% that is down 2 from election but up 1 from now.
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
Labour does at least appear to have held on to most of the gain in vote share achieved during the election campaign. Less than three weeks before Polling Day Opinium had Labour on 28% and showed a Tory lead of 19%
Why, to be bold and to borrow your comment, is that relevant?
It might have some relevance to the more psephologically aware.
Yes, I get that you are very clever.
Why, in the context of the next GE being 5 years in the future, is it relevant?
I think that the pollsters like to do them continually so they can look back at unbroken data sets and pick up trends.
It will also give us a newer base link to assess a new Lab leader from, if after the new leader is elected they are on 31% that is down 2 from election but up 1 from now.
Agreed. No problem with the polls, even if the spectacle of Tories getting needlessly priapic over them is mildly indigestible.
Barely 5 weeks after an election with Christmas and New Year in between, is anyone remotely surprised?
Let's see where we are in 6 months and 12 months time?
Actually I am a little surprised that it isn't more. Considering how low Labour had fallen before the election was called it's interesting it has remained relatively buoyant. Part of that may be expectation now that Corbyn is leaving, but it is at least of ray of sunshine for the reds.
Why does it matter? It seems wholly irrelevant now (or indeed in 6 or 12 months). In 36 months it might be relevant. Possibly.
Who’s wasting their money on this nonsense?
Calm down dear, it's only a poll.
And as Justin pointed out there are useful lessons to draw from polling outside a GE.
It's also a useful reference point to compare polling post-leadership election. Plus there's locals in a few months.
Far more useful would be polling comparing Labour under Starmer, Long Bailey, Phillips etc v the Tories as we had at the time of the Tory leadership election with voting intentions under a Boris led Tories, a Hunt led Tories, a Gove led Tories etc.
Polling with Corbyn as leader is irrelevant giving he will be gone in 3 months
Yes in theory, but I don't think enough of the public know enough of most of the Lab leader contenders to have formed opinion.
Tom Watson??? Really!! Has Operation Midland passed them by?
It’s irrelevant. Which political party was targeted? Watson is many things but ultimately a loyalist. Ex-MPs of a similar type also post here,
OK. Maybe I’m naive in expecting some probity in public life. But Watson played an important role in perpetrating gross injustices to innocent people and in the corrosion of the police’s role in investigating really serious charges.
NFW should he be rewarded with a peerage. We may as well give Sir Fred Goodwin a peerage and let him become a legislator.
FFS!!! Can’t we have some standards somewhere in public life. Just some. Please.
He didn’t resign when he could have made a difference. Loyalty is recognised. We have standards. You don’t like them but they are there and have always been there. It’s just that MPs think they are different- see the the haiographic interview of Flint in today’s Times for a implicit statement of this and consider how the husband was employed,
Rewards for failure. And it’s because these are the standards, it’s because people can behave badly and incompetently and not suffer any detriment or disgrace that we have such poor leadership and so many second and third-raters in charge of our police and banks and lots of other institutions.
Little point in bemoaning the consequences of this second-rateness if we’re not prepared to do anything about it when we have the chance.
I hope I am not the only one who thinks that honesty and competence should count for something and that their opposites should not be overlooked when it comes to handing out baubles.
Trying to do the right thing just makes you the mug. That’s the message our society gives out.
Labour leadership candidates really firing up the voters' imagination then.....
Labour does at least appear to have held on to most of the gain in vote share achieved during the election campaign. Less than three weeks before Polling Day Opinium had Labour on 28% and showed a Tory lead of 19%
Why, to be bold and to borrow your comment, is that relevant?
It might have some relevance to the more psephologically aware.
Yes, I get that you are very clever.
Why, in the context of the next GE being 5 years in the future, is it relevant?
I think that the pollsters like to do them continually so they can look back at unbroken data sets and pick up trends.
It will also give us a newer base link to assess a new Lab leader from, if after the new leader is elected they are on 31% that is down 2 from election but up 1 from now.
That’s a fair comment. The idea that they are relevant for local elections is ballsy.
You cannot "level up" the North without "levelling down" the South. This to me is a statement of almost scientific certainty.
So if this Boris Johnson led Conservative government can manage to do it - well it will be an achievement of such magnitude that no other party need bother standing next time. And rightly not.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have you looked at population movements?
I spend a reasonable amount of time talking to Eastern German businesses - the one consistent complaint is they can’t get any staff
any staff, any suitable staff, or any suitably skilled staff? - there is a big difference between the situations.
Tom Watson??? Really!! Has Operation Midland passed them by?
It’s irrelevant. Which political party was targeted? Watson is many things but ultimately a loyalist. Ex-MPs of a similar type also post here,
OK. Maybe I’m naive in expecting some probity in public life. But Watson played an important role in perpetrating gross injustices to innocent people and in the corrosion of the police’s role in investigating really serious charges.
NFW should he be rewarded with a peerage. We may as well give Sir Fred Goodwin a peerage and let him become a legislator.
FFS!!! Can’t we have some standards somewhere in public life. Just some. Please.
Rather than simply rewarding arse-licking loyalty no matter how dishonest and incompetent.
Honestly, I give up.
You've got a strong point.
Trouble is, look who the Tories have just put in the House of Lords and think how Labour are feeling right now. The view is that the Tories fought a much dirtier election campaign (e.g. the number of dishonest party-funded social media ads) and it worked. At my new CLP, there was a strong feeling that Labour should fight as dirty as the Tories in future.
Plus there is a need to heal, or at least plaster over, internal divisions. Corbyn failing to nominate Watson would not look good.
That's the state of our politics at the moment. Morals don't get a look-in. There's some fault for that in all parties, but Johnson and Cummings are more to blame than anyone else.
A good, punchy header. Interesting historical parallel, but obviously not quite a direct one. Nobody (yet) has suggested restricted regulations against development in London, and I don't think anyone would. We are not returning to the days of that type of attempted economic management.
For a future header on this topic, I would be interested in hearing what the cost-benefit analysis that Alastair speaks of consisted of, and (when we have the information) what the new criteria consist of.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
Laender.
Länder.
Is there’s a way of easily typing umlauts, accents or circumflexes on an iPad English language keyboard, I’d be delighted to hear it,
Labour proposals for Lifee Peerages in the Dissolution List are
Bercow Watson Sue Hayman, the defeated Workington MP Katy Clark, North Ayrshire 2010-15 MP and then political secretary to Corbyn Karie Murphy, Corbyn's office director Tony Woodley, former general secretary of Unite the Union 2 SpAd to McDonnell
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
Laender.
Länder.
"ae" is perfectly acceptable for "A umlaut".
If your typewriter has no other way of representing it, it is.
Tom Watson??? Really!! Has Operation Midland passed them by?
It’s irrelevant. Which political party was targeted? Watson is many things but ultimately a loyalist. Ex-MPs of a similar type also post here,
OK. Maybe I’m naive in expecting some probity in public life. But Watson played an important role in perpetrating gross injustices to innocent people and in the corrosion of the police’s role in investigating really serious charges.
NFW should he be rewarded with a peerage. We may as well give Sir Fred Goodwin a peerage and let him become a legislator.
FFS!!! Can’t we have some standards somewhere in public life. Just some. Please.
Rather than simply rewarding arse-licking loyalty no matter how dishonest and incompetent.
Honestly, I give up.
You've got a strong point.
Trouble is, look who the Tories have just put in the House of Lords and think how Labour are feeling right now. The view is that the Tories fought a much dirtier election campaign (e.g. the number of dishonest party-funded social media ads) and it worked. At my new CLP, there was a strong feeling that Labour should fight as dirty as the Tories in future.
Plus there is a need to heal, or at least plaster over, internal divisions. Corbyn failing to nominate Watson would not look good.
That's the state of our politics at the moment. Morals don't get a look-in. There's some fault for that in all parties, but Johnson and Cummings are more to blame than anyone else.
I’m not making a party political point. In a week when we have learnt about the GMP’s failings and more about Rotherham and Midland, all of it scandalously disgraceful, I just despair that it is never the right time for any sort of morality or even basic competence. On and on it goes: they started it, we need to get our own back, it’s not fair, it’s our turn now etc.
I think I will vomit if I ever have to hear again from any of these useless, lying rotten gits, the phrase “lessons have been learnt”. Let’s be done with the lot of them, put the Mafia in charge and make Berlusconi President. It would be marginally more honest than this nauseating self-serving hypocrisy.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
Laender.
Länder.
Is there’s a way of easily typing umlauts, accents or circumflexes on an iPad English language keyboard, I’d be delighted to hear it,
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
Laender.
Länder.
But the original said " I don't think there's a single East German Laander ". The singular is Land.
Barely 5 weeks after an election with Christmas and New Year in between, is anyone remotely surprised?
Let's see where we are in 6 months and 12 months time?
Actually I am a little surprised that it isn't more. Considering how low Labour had fallen before the election was called it's interesting it has remained relatively buoyant. Part of that may be expectation now that Corbyn is leaving, but it is at least of ray of sunshine for the reds.
Why does it matter? It seems wholly irrelevant now (or indeed in 6 or 12 months). In 36 months it might be relevant. Possibly.
Who’s wasting their money on this nonsense?
Calm down dear, it's only a poll.
And as Justin pointed out there are useful lessons to draw from polling outside a GE.
It's also a useful reference point to compare polling post-leadership election. Plus there's locals in a few months.
Far more useful would be polling comparing Labour under Starmer, Long Bailey, Phillips etc v the Tories as we had at the time of the Tory leadership election with voting intentions under a Boris led Tories, a Hunt led Tories, a Gove led Tories etc.
Polling with Corbyn as leader is irrelevant giving he will be gone in 3 months
Yes in theory, but I don't think enough of the public know enough of most of the Lab leader contenders to have formed opinion.
I think as the Labour leadership race is progressing more will have, either way at least it would have more relevance than the current pointless polling
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
Laender.
Länder.
Is there’s a way of easily typing umlauts, accents or circumflexes on an iPad English language keyboard, I’d be delighted to hear it,
Google, copy, paste.
You and I have an different interpretation of “easy”.
Why would you want to artificially depress Europe’s most successful region?
I said that it would be a great achievement to boost the North WITHOUT damaging the South.
Comprehension issues?
Yes, I think so. I don’t buy the zero sum game argument. Economies don’t work like that.
Agreed. There is no reason investment and economic success in the regions should affect London. It is surely the opposite. Successful companies in the North are a market for London's financial services industry.
Actually I am a little surprised that it isn't more. Considering how low Labour had fallen before the election was called it's interesting it has remained relatively buoyant. Part of that may be expectation now that Corbyn is leaving, but it is at least of ray of sunshine for the reds.
No one, apart from on here and similar forums, has given politics a moment's thought since 12/12. The Conservatives will obviously have another reason for a good gloat at everyone else's expense and that's fine.
As you say, once the shine comes off Johnson's "Glorious Revolution", the polls will become much more enjoyable for the rest of us.
Still underestimating BoJo I see......oh well more fool you.
Tom Watson??? Really!! Has Operation Midland passed them by?
It’s irrelevant. Which political party was targeted? Watson is many things but ultimately a loyalist. Ex-MPs of a similar type also post here,
OK. Maybe I’m naive in expecting some probity in public life. But Watson played an important role in perpetrating gross injustices to innocent people and in the corrosion of the police’s role in investigating really serious charges.
NFW should he be rewarded with a peerage. We may as well give Sir Fred Goodwin a peerage and let him become a legislator.
FFS!!! Can’t we have some standards somewhere in public life. Just some. Please.
Rather than simply rewarding arse-licking loyalty no matter how dishonest and incompetent.
Honestly, I give up.
You've got a strong point.
Trouble is, look who the Tories have just put in the House of Lords and think how Labour are feeling right now. The view is that the Tories fought a much dirtier election campaign (e.g. the number of dishonest party-funded social media ads) and it worked. At my new CLP, there was a strong feeling that Labour should fight as dirty as the Tories in future.
Plus there is a need to heal, or at least plaster over, internal divisions. Corbyn failing to nominate Watson would not look good.
That's the state of our politics at the moment. Morals don't get a look-in. There's some fault for that in all parties, but Johnson and Cummings are more to blame than anyone else.
Until Labour learn to lose without crying conspiracy they will never win.
This hustings format is pretty rubbish. Sound byte after sound byte. They need to have an actual debate.
In this format, Long-Bailey actually comes across very well. She did as well as any of them except maybe Thornberry (my #1/#2 are Nandy/Starmer btw). They really need a moderator who is a little bit adversarial - not Andrew Neil but Andrew Marr - since they can't get away with being too aggressive towards one another.
Thornberry showed a lot of passion about holding Johnson to account. She was very good. Don't think it will do her much good in getting elected leader though.
Labour proposals for Lifee Peerages in the Dissolution List are
Bercow Watson Sue Hayman, the defeated Workington MP Katy Clark, North Ayrshire 2010-15 MP and then political secretary to Corbyn Karie Murphy, Corbyn's office director Tony Woodley, former general secretary of Unite the Union 2 SpAd to McDonnell
Karie Murphy: it might be wise to wait until the EHRC report on anti-semitism is published.
We should take some lessons from the Germans, who have managed to raise incomes in the East German Laander to levels above many English regions in little more than 20 years.
It required a combination of tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and direct subsidies from the center to local government.
Have they?
Whenever I read about East Germany it's to say they're still in the doldrums regardless of the fact money's been thrown at it for 30 years.
It's far easier to kill a golden goose than create one.
Mecklenburg, in East Germany, has a higher GDP per capita than North East England, and an unemployment rate below 5%. That was certainly not the case when Germany reunified.
What about the rest? Put it this way, would you rather live in Cottbus, Chemnitz (ex-Karl Marx Stadt) or Newcastle?
Check out the link. I don't think there's a single East German Laander that is poorer than the poorest parts of Britain.
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
Laender.
Länder.
"ae" is perfectly acceptable for "A umlaut".
If your typewriter has no other way of representing it, it is.
Is there’s a way of easily typing umlauts, accents or circumflexes on an iPad English language keyboard, I’d be delighted to hear it,
Matt
In the Standard or Vanilla version, press and hold a letter key on the onscreen keyboard and the options pop up. Slide your finger to the one you want and release, eg for a I can get à ā ä æ å Á Ä etc
Labour proposals for Lifee Peerages in the Dissolution List are
Bercow Watson Sue Hayman, the defeated Workington MP Katy Clark, North Ayrshire 2010-15 MP and then political secretary to Corbyn Karie Murphy, Corbyn's office director Tony Woodley, former general secretary of Unite the Union 2 SpAd to McDonnell
Comments
We need a ray of sunshine.
Let's see where we are in 6 months and 12 months time?
https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1218624097799639040?s=21
(Although I wonder if there are any non-MP arseholes who actually vote?)
Applies to Prince Harry too.
People tend to like being associated with the winners. Once a new government starts to have an impact on people’s lives, and it has time to sink in, they get assessed on a different basis.
And neither of the opposition parties has a new leader yet.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-labour-leadership-hopefuls-back-10-pledges-to-address-anti-semitism/
Electoral Calculus, terns that in to:
Con: 385
Lab: 184
LD: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 48
PC: 4
A 120 seat majority.
As you say, once the shine comes off Johnson's "Glorious Revolution", the polls will become much more enjoyable for the rest of us.
Lawyers who have done something interesting... Rudy Giuliani; Alan Dershowitz; Michael Avenatti...
Who’s wasting their money on this nonsense?
Brexit done
NI assembly back up and running
Uncertainty over Sindy ref2 put firmly to bed.
Record low unemployment
Economy strong
It’s a golden age.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-15th-january-2020/
Harry and Meghan Give Up Royal Titles, Forgo State Funding
The agreement represents one of the most dramatic ruptures within the British royal family since King Edward VIII abdicated the throne in 1936 to marry an American woman, Wallis Simpson.
See https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9618249/1-26022019-AP-EN.pdf/f765d183-c3d2-4e2f-9256-cc6665909c80&ved=2ahUKEwjLhseNg47nAhWXrJ4KHZMSA_wQFjACegQIDBAJ&usg=AOvVaw0mMGTSJC1bcS5hT0edLvrd
When a King/Queen dies, all their children or grandchildren should be eligible for election as next monarch. To be on the short-list they would need the support of at least 15% of their peers. Then the public votes on the short-list. Winner takes all.
It keeps it in the family; avoids a Blair or Sugar President; it avoids an Andrew becoming King, it's semi- democratic. What's not to like?
Why, in the context of the next GE being 5 years in the future, is it relevant?
The BBC are so into US politics they cannot even relate to the British pound
And why do they continue with the idiotic beyond 100 days news programme
Part of that, of course, is because people have left these areas, and moved to Berlin, Hamburg, etc. The fact that German housing is so much cheaper than British makes labour mobility much higher, which helps.
Enterprise zones with tax rebates plus enabling infrastructure.
Think Docklands as an example
NFW should he be rewarded with a peerage. We may as well give Sir Fred Goodwin a peerage and let him become a legislator.
FFS!!! Can’t we have some standards somewhere in public life. Just some. Please.
Rather than simply rewarding arse-licking loyalty no matter how dishonest and incompetent.
Honestly, I give up.
I spend a reasonable amount of time talking to Eastern German businesses - the one consistent complaint is they can’t get any staff
And the previous GDR economy there was largely agricultural, so industrial decline doesn’t apply... and tourism has increased greatly since reunification.
Not convinced that anyone deliberately ‘created’ any of that.
And as Justin pointed out there are useful lessons to draw from polling outside a GE.
It's also a useful reference point to compare polling post-leadership election. Plus there's locals in a few months.
Toe the party line, and you might get a peerage is a very old message indeed.
Polling with Corbyn as leader is irrelevant giving he will be gone in 3 months
It will also give us a newer base link to assess a new Lab leader from, if after the new leader is elected they are on 31% that is down 2 from election but up 1 from now.
No problem with the polls, even if the spectacle of Tories getting needlessly priapic over them is mildly indigestible.
Little point in bemoaning the consequences of this second-rateness if we’re not prepared to do anything about it when we have the chance.
I hope I am not the only one who thinks that honesty and competence should count for something and that their opposites should not be overlooked when it comes to handing out baubles.
Trying to do the right thing just makes you the mug. That’s the message our society gives out.
Pffft....
You can make the pie bigger.
Trouble is, look who the Tories have just put in the House of Lords and think how Labour are feeling right now. The view is that the Tories fought a much dirtier election campaign (e.g. the number of dishonest party-funded social media ads) and it worked. At my new CLP, there was a strong feeling that Labour should fight as dirty as the Tories in future.
Plus there is a need to heal, or at least plaster over, internal divisions. Corbyn failing to nominate Watson would not look good.
That's the state of our politics at the moment. Morals don't get a look-in. There's some fault for that in all parties, but Johnson and Cummings are more to blame than anyone else.
For a future header on this topic, I would be interested in hearing what the cost-benefit analysis that Alastair speaks of consisted of, and (when we have the information) what the new criteria consist of.
Bercow
Watson
Sue Hayman, the defeated Workington MP
Katy Clark, North Ayrshire 2010-15 MP and then political secretary to Corbyn
Karie Murphy, Corbyn's office director
Tony Woodley, former general secretary of Unite the Union
2 SpAd to McDonnell
I think I will vomit if I ever have to hear again from any of these useless, lying rotten gits, the phrase “lessons have been learnt”. Let’s be done with the lot of them, put the Mafia in charge and make Berlusconi President. It would be marginally more honest than this nauseating self-serving hypocrisy.
Oh .... who am I kidding......
Is there’s a way of easily typing umlauts, accents or circumflexes on an iPad English language keyboard, I’d be delighted to hear it,
Matt
In the Standard or Vanilla version, press and hold a letter key on the onscreen keyboard and the options pop up. Slide your finger to the one you want and release, eg for a I can get à ā ä æ å Á Ä etc
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9434945/How-lover-of-Conservative-MP-Rory-Stewart-left-her-husband-heartbroken-in-Afghanistan.html