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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s opening gift to Starmer – scrapping HS2?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 21 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s opening gift to Starmer – scrapping HS2?

The biggest mistake that was made over HS2 was to call it just that. It sounds like a vanity project which is exactly what it isn’t. The new line would free up chronic under-capacity on the existing West Coast Main Line including for all the local and commuter services. If this had been billed as “West Coast Mainline upgrade” it wouldn’t have attracted anything like the opposition.

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    The Tories did not win the North promising faster links to London but to deliver Brexit and control immigration
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,909
    Second, like HS2
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,358
    edited January 21
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories did not win the North promising faster links to London but to deliver Brexit and control immigration

    OGH's point though is that Boris might well be portrayed as saying 'thanks for that, now get son with it yourselves.' Or similar.

    Anyway, who is going to build the damn thing. The labour force on the canals and the first railways had a significant component of Irish immigrants didn't it?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,909
    It's kind of win-win for the new Labour leader. Easy enough to oppose a giant money sink that's being kept going purely for political reasons. Can't see much downside for Labour opposing HS2 on cost grounds, and there's any number of other causes they could argue the money would be better spent on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 42,624
    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    I wonder what the economic impact of closing the railways would be?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,500
    I wonder what 2019 Tory gain is closest to an HS2 station?
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    As a lot of people have constantly stated on here, the real HS2 benefits have never been explained nor discussed.

    It's not a question of faster trains to London, it's really a question of more trains between say Crewe and Wolverhampton with faster trains to London as a slight benefit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 42,624

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories did not win the North promising faster links to London but to deliver Brexit and control immigration

    OGH's point though is that Boris might well be portrayed as saying 'thanks for that, now get son with it yourselves.' Or similar.

    Anyway, who is going to build the damn thing. The labour force on the canals and the first railways had a significant component of Irish immigrants didn't it?
    The same people who build other infrastructure projects? I haven’t heard anyone complain about a lack of manpower being a serious issue.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,907
    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    You are not thinking. This is not about the detail of HS2 but creating an effective "anti North" rhetoric
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories did not win the North promising faster links to London but to deliver Brexit and control immigration

    OGH's point though is that Boris might well be portrayed as saying 'thanks for that, now get son with it yourselves.' Or similar.

    Anyway, who is going to build the damn thing. The labour force on the canals and the first railways had a significant component of Irish immigrants didn't it?
    The same people who build other infrastructure projects? I haven’t heard anyone complain about a lack of manpower being a serious issue.
    One reason for HS2's delay is I believe CrossRail's delay which is equally due to some other building project where it was competing for resources.

    The shift to throwing 50% of 18 year olds to University means we have less people doing infrastructure work and no-one willing to pay for the training.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,500
    eek said:

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    As a lot of people have constantly stated on here, the real HS2 benefits have never been explained nor discussed.

    It's not a question of faster trains to London, it's really a question of more trains between say Crewe and Wolverhampton with faster trains to London as a slight benefit.
    What about places like Stoke? Look at the service to Euston at the moment:

    https://tinyurl.com/saekrzp

    You can get to Euston in 1 hour 30 minutes:

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C72485/2020-01-21/detailed

    Will Stoke still receive that level of service - both in terms of frequency and speed - once HS2 is open?
  • tlg86 said:

    I wonder what 2019 Tory gain is closest to an HS2 station?

    Rother or Don Valleys?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,500

    tlg86 said:

    I wonder what 2019 Tory gain is closest to an HS2 station?

    Rother or Don Valleys?
    On the classic-compatible (i.e. not on HS2) services, probably.
  • Us Northerners would prefer the HS2 money to be spent on intercity routes between Northern cities.

    Here’s the current departures board for Manchester Piccadilly, this is what most days look like.


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,866
    Here's a new northern Conservative MP:


  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    edited January 21
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    As a lot of people have constantly stated on here, the real HS2 benefits have never been explained nor discussed.

    It's not a question of faster trains to London, it's really a question of more trains between say Crewe and Wolverhampton with faster trains to London as a slight benefit.
    What about places like Stoke? Look at the service to Euston at the moment:

    https://tinyurl.com/saekrzp

    You can get to Euston in 1 hour 30 minutes:

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C72485/2020-01-21/detailed

    Will Stoke still receive that level of service - both in terms of frequency and speed - once HS2 is open?
    With the additional tracks - the delay might be less.

    Mind you Piccadilly is a complete mess of the station so I wonder how many problems are due to bottlenecks there rather than issues elsewhere. Especially given that the issue seems to be on the through (Manchester) train platforms (13/14) rather than the terminus platforms (all the others).
  • The other misleading thing about HS2 is that when they say HS2 will cut journey times by 40 minutes etc they are talking only about direct services that don’t stop at intermediate stations.

    Most HS2 journeys will stop at a half dozen intermediate stops which knock off 12-15 minutes off the savings.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,907
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    As a lot of people have constantly stated on here, the real HS2 benefits have never been explained nor discussed.

    It's not a question of faster trains to London, it's really a question of more trains between say Crewe and Wolverhampton with faster trains to London as a slight benefit.
    What about places like Stoke? Look at the service to Euston at the moment:

    https://tinyurl.com/saekrzp

    You can get to Euston in 1 hour 30 minutes:

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C72485/2020-01-21/detailed

    Will Stoke still receive that level of service - both in terms of frequency and speed - once HS2 is open?
    It will get better because HS2 frees up capacity.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,866
    tlg86 said:

    I wonder what 2019 Tory gain is closest to an HS2 station?

    Crewe ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,500

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    As a lot of people have constantly stated on here, the real HS2 benefits have never been explained nor discussed.

    It's not a question of faster trains to London, it's really a question of more trains between say Crewe and Wolverhampton with faster trains to London as a slight benefit.
    What about places like Stoke? Look at the service to Euston at the moment:

    https://tinyurl.com/saekrzp

    You can get to Euston in 1 hour 30 minutes:

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C72485/2020-01-21/detailed

    Will Stoke still receive that level of service - both in terms of frequency and speed - once HS2 is open?
    It will get better because HS2 frees up capacity.
    From your own header:

    The new line would free up chronic under-capacity on the existing West Coast Main Line including for all the local and commuter services.

    Where are the Stoke/Stafford/Stockport/Macclesfield trains going to go?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,907

    The other misleading thing about HS2 is that when they say HS2 will cut journey times by 40 minutes etc they are talking only about direct services that don’t stop at intermediate stations.

    Most HS2 journeys will stop at a half dozen intermediate stops which knock off 12-15 minutes off the savings.

    The big issue is that the West Coast mainline is at capacity. It can't take any more services.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    You are not thinking. This is not about the detail of HS2 but creating an effective "anti North" rhetoric
    Nope, voters in Don Valley, Bishop Auckland, Grimsby and Scunthorpe and Blyth Valley who voted Tory did not vote for quicker routes to London, quicker routes with each other would be more relevant to them.

    Voters in Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle might care about quicker routes to London but they still voted Labour anyway
  • The problem with HS2, as the thread header makes clear, is that it has become an existential issue - a political icon rather than a construction project. None of the proponents are prepared to engage in a cost-benefit analysis: it must be built at any price - there can be no upper limit. Last months ceiling is next month's floor, and so it continues.

    The 'chronic under-capacity' on WCML could be solved overnight by doubling the fares.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,883
    edited January 21
    Spot on. The fraction of people who commute large distances is vanishingly small, most normal people suffer shocking public transport within their own regions.

    The idea that people in the North (particularly people who just voted Tory, who are among the demographics least likely to use such a service) are going to be concerned if Boris scraps HS2 is nonsense. To most HS2 is entirely and utterly irrelevant to their lives. Little surprise to me that most people who support HS2 tend to be remainers.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,866

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    You are not thinking. This is not about the detail of HS2 but creating an effective "anti North" rhetoric
    Not going to work then - northerners use roads not railways.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,883

    The other misleading thing about HS2 is that when they say HS2 will cut journey times by 40 minutes etc they are talking only about direct services that don’t stop at intermediate stations.

    Most HS2 journeys will stop at a half dozen intermediate stops which knock off 12-15 minutes off the savings.

    The big issue is that the West Coast mainline is at capacity. It can't take any more services.
    Please, the WCML carts about air for most of the day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,500

    The other misleading thing about HS2 is that when they say HS2 will cut journey times by 40 minutes etc they are talking only about direct services that don’t stop at intermediate stations.

    Most HS2 journeys will stop at a half dozen intermediate stops which knock off 12-15 minutes off the savings.

    This is what's happened in France. I was shocked at how often the TGV from Lille to Marseille stopped. I guess all the local politicians want their town to be on the line, even if it adds 30 minutes to the journey time between the big cities.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,909
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    As a lot of people have constantly stated on here, the real HS2 benefits have never been explained nor discussed.

    It's not a question of faster trains to London, it's really a question of more trains between say Crewe and Wolverhampton with faster trains to London as a slight benefit.
    What about places like Stoke? Look at the service to Euston at the moment:

    https://tinyurl.com/saekrzp

    You can get to Euston in 1 hour 30 minutes:

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C72485/2020-01-21/detailed

    Will Stoke still receive that level of service - both in terms of frequency and speed - once HS2 is open?
    It will get better because HS2 frees up capacity.
    From your own header:

    The new line would free up chronic under-capacity on the existing West Coast Main Line including for all the local and commuter services.

    Where are the Stoke/Stafford/Stockport/Macclesfield trains going to go?
    Answered your own question there, haven't you?
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    edited January 21

    The problem with HS2, as the thread header makes clear, is that it has become an existential issue - a political icon rather than a construction project. None of the proponents are prepared to engage in a cost-benefit analysis: it must be built at any price - there can be no upper limit. Last months ceiling is next month's floor, and so it continues.

    The 'chronic under-capacity' on WCML could be solved overnight by doubling the fares.

    Talking about East Coast mainline but if you look at the fares there is no way you can double them.

    The cheapest fare from Darlington to London to get me to Kings Cross by 10am on February 17th is currently £140.50 .

    When the flights to Southend arrive I suspect it will be cheaper to fly and catch the train from there.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    HYUFD said:

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    You are not thinking. This is not about the detail of HS2 but creating an effective "anti North" rhetoric
    Nope, voters in Don Valley, Bishop Auckland, Grimsby and Scunthorpe and Blyth Valley who voted Tory did not vote for quicker routes to London, quicker routes with each other would be more relevant to them.

    Voters in Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle might care about quicker routes to London but they still voted Labour anyway
    How do you propose to give Bishop Auckland faster routes between the surrounding towns. I'm just asking because the locals know it's not that possible.

    What Bishop Auckland was promised is that their A&E department will be reopened while in reality the NHS are trying to consolidate the Tees Valley A&E departments from 3 down to 2 to ensure expertise has appropriate support and training.

    The issue there is that Darlington while it is in Teesside actually covers most of the Yorkshire Dales.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    You are not thinking. This is not about the detail of HS2 but creating an effective "anti North" rhetoric
    I don't buy that, HS2 will suck more talent out of the North, if at the same time Boris pledges to look at building HS3 which will have a genuine impact on the North then he can look pro North
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    tlg86 said:

    The other misleading thing about HS2 is that when they say HS2 will cut journey times by 40 minutes etc they are talking only about direct services that don’t stop at intermediate stations.

    Most HS2 journeys will stop at a half dozen intermediate stops which knock off 12-15 minutes off the savings.

    This is what's happened in France. I was shocked at how often the TGV from Lille to Marseille stopped. I guess all the local politicians want their town to be on the line, even if it adds 30 minutes to the journey time between the big cities.
    Why do you think HS2 is so disliked? It's because people got all the inconvenience without the benefit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273
    Us northerners have fast, new 9 or 10 coach trains running to London. 2 hours Leeds to Kings Cross, less than that from York. In contrast we have slow, packed, 3 coach trains running between Leeds and Manchester

    HS2 is not what we need.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    I travelled from Birmingham to London on the WCML a couple of Friday's ago at 9am and had the carriage to myself. I'm sure there are more innovative ways of sorting out the capacity issue rather than spaffing billions on another line.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    You are not thinking. This is not about the detail of HS2 but creating an effective "anti North" rhetoric
    Nope, voters in Don Valley, Bishop Auckland, Grimsby and Scunthorpe and Blyth Valley who voted Tory did not vote for quicker routes to London, quicker routes with each other would be more relevant to them.

    Voters in Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle might care about quicker routes to London but they still voted Labour anyway
    How do you propose to give Bishop Auckland faster routes between the surrounding towns. I'm just asking because the locals know it's not that possible.

    What Bishop Auckland was promised is that their A&E department will be reopened while in reality the NHS are trying to consolidate the Tees Valley A&E departments from 3 down to 2 to ensure expertise has appropriate support and training.

    The issue there is that Darlington while it is in Teesside actually covers most of the Yorkshire Dales.
    It is not just about trains, voters there would prefer a decent bus service to HS2
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    I find it incredibly frustrating that we don't just get on with things in this country. We have been arguing about an additional runway at Heathrow for more than 20 years. It feels like we might end doing the same with HS2. The (non) dualling of the A1 north of Morpeth is absolutely ridiculous and was highlighted in Cummings famous advert as a job needing done quickly. The M8 is still 2 lanes only for most of its distance and frequently resembles a slightly scary car park. It must impact on Livingston which is one of the fastest growing parts of Scotland.

    We see the same ineptitude in public sector IT systems, everything the MoD ever touches and in so many public sector building contracts. In Scotland we wince about the Parliament building and the trams.

    I accept my attitude is being driven by frustration as much as by a detailed cost benefit analysis and no doubt (if you ignore another 20 years of planning delays) there might be better uses for the money if we look hard enough. But just f****** do it. Now.
  • eek said:

    The problem with HS2, as the thread header makes clear, is that it has become an existential issue - a political icon rather than a construction project. None of the proponents are prepared to engage in a cost-benefit analysis: it must be built at any price - there can be no upper limit. Last months ceiling is next month's floor, and so it continues.

    The 'chronic under-capacity' on WCML could be solved overnight by doubling the fares.

    Talking about East Coast mainline but if you look at the fares there is no way you can double them.

    The cheapest fare from Darlington to London to get me to Kings Cross by 10am on February 17th is currently £140.50 .

    When the flights to Southend arrive I suspect it will be cheaper to fly and catch the train from there.
    We need more thinking outside the box. If the cost of HS2 can double every couple of years, why not fares instead? Why is £140.50 considered expensive, rather than a bargain?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273

    The other misleading thing about HS2 is that when they say HS2 will cut journey times by 40 minutes etc they are talking only about direct services that don’t stop at intermediate stations.

    Most HS2 journeys will stop at a half dozen intermediate stops which knock off 12-15 minutes off the savings.

    And passengers to/from Nottingham will have to get a local train out to Toton to catch the HS2 service. Why bother when there is a perfectly good direct train serving the city centre?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,500
    edited January 21
    DavidL said:

    I find it incredibly frustrating that we don't just get on with things in this country. We have been arguing about an additional runway at Heathrow for more than 20 years. It feels like we might end doing the same with HS2. The (non) dualling of the A1 north of Morpeth is absolutely ridiculous and was highlighted in Cummings famous advert as a job needing done quickly. The M8 is still 2 lanes only for most of its distance and frequently resembles a slightly scary car park. It must impact on Livingston which is one of the fastest growing parts of Scotland.

    We see the same ineptitude in public sector IT systems, everything the MoD ever touches and in so many public sector building contracts. In Scotland we wince about the Parliament building and the trams.

    I accept my attitude is being driven by frustration as much as by a detailed cost benefit analysis and no doubt (if you ignore another 20 years of planning delays) there might be better uses for the money if we look hard enough. But just f****** do it. Now.

    It's worth remembering that the Tories ran with HS2 as an excuse for opposing a third runway at Heathrow in the 2010 General Election.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900

    eek said:

    The problem with HS2, as the thread header makes clear, is that it has become an existential issue - a political icon rather than a construction project. None of the proponents are prepared to engage in a cost-benefit analysis: it must be built at any price - there can be no upper limit. Last months ceiling is next month's floor, and so it continues.

    The 'chronic under-capacity' on WCML could be solved overnight by doubling the fares.

    Talking about East Coast mainline but if you look at the fares there is no way you can double them.

    The cheapest fare from Darlington to London to get me to Kings Cross by 10am on February 17th is currently £140.50 .

    When the flights to Southend arrive I suspect it will be cheaper to fly and catch the train from there.
    We need more thinking outside the box. If the cost of HS2 can double every couple of years, why not fares instead? Why is £140.50 considered expensive, rather than a bargain?
    Because the cost of driving it is less. Being vindictive a company could ask you to drive it as using HMRC's mileage allowance the cost of driving to a company is £110 before VAT savings.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it incredibly frustrating that we don't just get on with things in this country. We have been arguing about an additional runway at Heathrow for more than 20 years. It feels like we might end doing the same with HS2. The (non) dualling of the A1 north of Morpeth is absolutely ridiculous and was highlighted in Cummings famous advert as a job needing done quickly. The M8 is still 2 lanes only for most of its distance and frequently resembles a slightly scary car park. It must impact on Livingston which is one of the fastest growing parts of Scotland.

    We see the same ineptitude in public sector IT systems, everything the MoD ever touches and in so many public sector building contracts. In Scotland we wince about the Parliament building and the trams.

    I accept my attitude is being driven by frustration as much as by a detailed cost benefit analysis and no doubt (if you ignore another 20 years of planning delays) there might be better uses for the money if we look hard enough. But just f****** do it. Now.

    It's worth remembering that the Tories ran with HS2 as an excuse for opposing a third runway at Heathrow in the 2010 General Election.
    Its so blindingly obvious that the choice between Gatwick and Heathrow was both. They should both be in operation by now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,131
    edited January 21

    tlg86 said:

    I wonder what 2019 Tory gain is closest to an HS2 station?

    Crewe ?
    Yorkshire - Wakefield
    East Mids hub - Ashfield (Erewash was technically a CON hold)
    Manchester - Leigh
    Manchester Airport - Warrington South
    Birmingham - West Bromwich East
    Birmingham Interchange - Birmingham Northfield
    Euston & Old Oak - KENSINGTON Not Carshalton !
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,866
    eek said:

    The problem with HS2, as the thread header makes clear, is that it has become an existential issue - a political icon rather than a construction project. None of the proponents are prepared to engage in a cost-benefit analysis: it must be built at any price - there can be no upper limit. Last months ceiling is next month's floor, and so it continues.

    The 'chronic under-capacity' on WCML could be solved overnight by doubling the fares.

    Talking about East Coast mainline but if you look at the fares there is no way you can double them.

    The cheapest fare from Darlington to London to get me to Kings Cross by 10am on February 17th is currently £140.50 .

    When the flights to Southend arrive I suspect it will be cheaper to fly and catch the train from there.
    But doesn't that just show supply and demand.

    You can go from Darlington to Kings Cross for £54 today if you get the 13:00, 14:59, 17:59 or 21:48 trains.

    And tomorrow for £68.50 if you get the 08:59 or 10:28 trains, £54:00 on the 10:59 and for only £44.50 on the 11:27.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    Another 1,000 jobs for London: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51184323
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900

    The other misleading thing about HS2 is that when they say HS2 will cut journey times by 40 minutes etc they are talking only about direct services that don’t stop at intermediate stations.

    Most HS2 journeys will stop at a half dozen intermediate stops which knock off 12-15 minutes off the savings.

    And passengers to/from Nottingham will have to get a local train out to Toton to catch the HS2 service. Why bother when there is a perfectly good direct train serving the city centre?
    Depends if you or want to start from the town centre.

    What I suspect would happen is that you catch Midland mainline if you start in London and want to be in Nottingham town centre and HS2 if you start in Nottingham and need to be in London.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    You are not thinking. This is not about the detail of HS2 but creating an effective "anti North" rhetoric
    Nope, voters in Don Valley, Bishop Auckland, Grimsby and Scunthorpe and Blyth Valley who voted Tory did not vote for quicker routes to London, quicker routes with each other would be more relevant to them.

    Voters in Manchester or Liverpool or Newcastle might care about quicker routes to London but they still voted Labour anyway
    How do you propose to give Bishop Auckland faster routes between the surrounding towns. I'm just asking because the locals know it's not that possible.

    What Bishop Auckland was promised is that their A&E department will be reopened while in reality the NHS are trying to consolidate the Tees Valley A&E departments from 3 down to 2 to ensure expertise has appropriate support and training.

    The issue there is that Darlington while it is in Teesside actually covers most of the Yorkshire Dales.
    It is not just about trains, voters there would prefer a decent bus service to HS2
    You are Lisa Nandy and I claim my £5!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    And yet more good news on unemployment: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51188930

    Contrary to what the BBC is saying I think an interest rate cut at the end of the month looks pretty nailed on.
  • The problem is that large infrastructure projects are really unpopular. The best example is that the U.K. desperately needs a high and medium level nuclear waste store. Almost certainly it should be hundreds of metres below the Lake District. Ministers get advice on this every now and then but do nothing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273
    DavidL said:

    Another 1,000 jobs for London: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51184323

    Just rejoice at that new, northern Tories.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616
    edited January 21
    This (HS2) is an issue that has occupied the country for years. From the moment the original decision to go ahead was made, there have been those who have resisted. The debate has become increasingly polarized and ill-tempered at the extremes - to the extent that most people now, regardless of whether they were originally in favour or against, are just tired of the impasse, the endless delay, the seeming inability of our politicians to agree a way forward. So I sense that a short and clear message from PM Boris Johnson of "Get HS2 Done" - or perhaps a slightly more breezy "Build That Railway!" - will find favour with most. It certainly would with me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    kinabalu said:

    This (HS2) is an issue that has occupied the country for years. From the moment the original decision to go ahead was made, there have been those who have resisted. The debate has become increasingly polarized and ill-tempered at the extremes - to the extent that most people now, regardless of whether they were originally in favour or against, are just tired of the impasse, the endless delay, the seeming inability of our politicians to agree a way forward. So I sense that a short and clear message from PM Boris Johnson of "Get HS2 Done" - or perhaps a slightly more breezy "Build That Railway!" - will find favour with most. It certainly would with me.

    Yep, post Brexit being seen to get on with things is going to be important.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    The problem with HS2, as the thread header makes clear, is that it has become an existential issue - a political icon rather than a construction project. None of the proponents are prepared to engage in a cost-benefit analysis: it must be built at any price - there can be no upper limit. Last months ceiling is next month's floor, and so it continues.

    The 'chronic under-capacity' on WCML could be solved overnight by doubling the fares.

    Talking about East Coast mainline but if you look at the fares there is no way you can double them.

    The cheapest fare from Darlington to London to get me to Kings Cross by 10am on February 17th is currently £140.50 .

    When the flights to Southend arrive I suspect it will be cheaper to fly and catch the train from there.
    We need more thinking outside the box. If the cost of HS2 can double every couple of years, why not fares instead? Why is £140.50 considered expensive, rather than a bargain?
    Because the cost of driving it is less. Being vindictive a company could ask you to drive it as using HMRC's mileage allowance the cost of driving to a company is £110 before VAT savings.
    Darlington-London-Darlington is 500 miles. That's at least £75 fuel cost plus congestion charge plus parking and you'd be shattered long before you get there. £140.50 is a bargain to travel in comfort, arrive fresh and maybe catch up with some work on the way.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,866
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    I wonder what 2019 Tory gain is closest to an HS2 station?

    Crewe ?
    Yorkshire - Wakefield
    East Mids hub - Ashfield (Erewash was technically a CON hold)
    Manchester - Leigh
    Manchester Airport - Warrington South
    Birmingham - West Bromwich East
    Birmingham Interchange - Birmingham Northfield
    Euston & Old Oak - KENSINGTON Not Carshalton !
    Why was Erewash technically a Conservative hold rather just being a Conservative hold ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,131
    Interesting model for the Democratic primaries.

    https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/democratic_primary/
  • GasmanGasman Posts: 122
    It's amazing the change - Boris was an idiotic lightweight who'd say anything to get ahead. Now he might make a sensible decision in the interests of the country and that's terrible politically apparently.

    Or if you actually believe the nonsense that I'm sure Labour will be going with on HS2, is there actually a cost to it where you would accept that it's not worthwhile? Or just keep chucking the billions down the drain whatever the cost/benefit?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273
    I would suggest that HS2 enthusiasts turn up at Manchester Pic Platforms 13 and 14 in the evening peak and explain to the crush of humanity that HS2 is a priority, whereas building Platforms 15 and 16 and associated improvements through Oxford Road and beyond is not.

    Meanwhile at Leeds they have taken action to alleviate the overcrowding on Platform 16 in the evening peak. They've demolished the waiting room to create more standing space. Progress!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,131

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    I wonder what 2019 Tory gain is closest to an HS2 station?

    Crewe ?
    Yorkshire - Wakefield
    East Mids hub - Ashfield (Erewash was technically a CON hold)
    Manchester - Leigh
    Manchester Airport - Warrington South
    Birmingham - West Bromwich East
    Birmingham Interchange - Birmingham Northfield
    Euston & Old Oak - KENSINGTON Not Carshalton !
    Why was Erewash technically a Conservative hold rather just being a Conservative hold ?
    Lol I was thinking of Eddisbury :D
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The problem with HS2, as the thread header makes clear, is that it has become an existential issue - a political icon rather than a construction project. None of the proponents are prepared to engage in a cost-benefit analysis: it must be built at any price - there can be no upper limit. Last months ceiling is next month's floor, and so it continues.

    The 'chronic under-capacity' on WCML could be solved overnight by doubling the fares.

    Talking about East Coast mainline but if you look at the fares there is no way you can double them.

    The cheapest fare from Darlington to London to get me to Kings Cross by 10am on February 17th is currently £140.50 .

    When the flights to Southend arrive I suspect it will be cheaper to fly and catch the train from there.
    We need more thinking outside the box. If the cost of HS2 can double every couple of years, why not fares instead? Why is £140.50 considered expensive, rather than a bargain?
    Because the cost of driving it is less. Being vindictive a company could ask you to drive it as using HMRC's mileage allowance the cost of driving to a company is £110 before VAT savings.
    Darlington-London-Darlington is 500 miles. That's at least £75 fuel cost plus congestion charge plus parking and you'd be shattered long before you get there. £140.50 is a bargain to travel in comfort, arrive fresh and maybe catch up with some work on the way.
    You clearly haven't worked with the penny pinching companies I've had to deal with in the past.

    Nowadays it's my own firm and the rules are you pay reasonable expenses or it's a video conference call.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,984
    Not a single vote in Northern Ireland assembly yesterday for Johnson's NI Brexit "solution". All five major parties are adamantly opposed. Yet Johnson claims Northern Ireland consent.

    Remarkable, if you think about it.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,883
    £8 billion has been spent already, for absolutely nothing. Although not adjusting for inflation, that's almost as much as the much-maligned WCML upgrade cost.

    Going ahead with HS2 would suck the life, and funds, from projects that actually could benefit a much wider section of society.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    edited January 21
    That opens up an interesting question up North - why are men so less employable than women? (I opened it and scanned the first few constituencies).

    And why do the rural areas in both Northumberland and Yorkshire have such low levels of unemployment.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 28,598
    kinabalu said:

    This (HS2) is an issue that has occupied the country for years. From the moment the original decision to go ahead was made, there have been those who have resisted. The debate has become increasingly polarized and ill-tempered at the extremes - to the extent that most people now, regardless of whether they were originally in favour or against, are just tired of the impasse, the endless delay, the seeming inability of our politicians to agree a way forward. So I sense that a short and clear message from PM Boris Johnson of "Get HS2 Done" - or perhaps a slightly more breezy "Build That Railway!" - will find favour with most. It certainly would with me.

    Having sabotaged the economy and ruined the public finances that way, what better way to continue the damage by hosing huge amounts of money at a bad value infrastructure project?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,500
    Interesting that the top four seats for the claimant count are all in Birmingham:

    Birmingham, Ladywood - 8.4%
    Birmingham, Hodge Hill - 8.1%
    Birmingham, Erdington - 7.9%
    Birmingham, Perry Barr - 7.7%
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The problem with HS2, as the thread header makes clear, is that it has become an existential issue - a political icon rather than a construction project. None of the proponents are prepared to engage in a cost-benefit analysis: it must be built at any price - there can be no upper limit. Last months ceiling is next month's floor, and so it continues.

    The 'chronic under-capacity' on WCML could be solved overnight by doubling the fares.

    Talking about East Coast mainline but if you look at the fares there is no way you can double them.

    The cheapest fare from Darlington to London to get me to Kings Cross by 10am on February 17th is currently £140.50 .

    When the flights to Southend arrive I suspect it will be cheaper to fly and catch the train from there.
    We need more thinking outside the box. If the cost of HS2 can double every couple of years, why not fares instead? Why is £140.50 considered expensive, rather than a bargain?
    Because the cost of driving it is less. Being vindictive a company could ask you to drive it as using HMRC's mileage allowance the cost of driving to a company is £110 before VAT savings.
    Darlington-London-Darlington is 500 miles. That's at least £75 fuel cost plus congestion charge plus parking and you'd be shattered long before you get there. £140.50 is a bargain to travel in comfort, arrive fresh and maybe catch up with some work on the way.
    You clearly haven't worked with the penny pinching companies I've had to deal with in the past.

    Nowadays it's my own firm and the rules are you pay reasonable expenses or it's a video conference call.
    I've been self-employed since 1976! Over the years I've made every false economy imaginable and finally, reluctantly come to the conclusion that my sanity is worth a few extra quid. I once drove London-Leeds-Bristol-London with meetings at both 'outposts'. Never again.
  • The wife of Liverpool’s principal owner tweets about something that happened at the match on Sunday



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,131
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting that the top four seats for the claimant count are all in Birmingham:

    Birmingham, Ladywood - 8.4%
    Birmingham, Hodge Hill - 8.1%
    Birmingham, Erdington - 7.9%
    Birmingham, Perry Barr - 7.7%
    The entire contiguous North East of Birmingham in fact.
  • Sky reporting

    Jess Phillips about to withdraw from the contest
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864
    FF43 said:

    Not a single vote in Northern Ireland assembly yesterday for Johnson's NI Brexit "solution". All five major parties are adamantly opposed. Yet Johnson claims Northern Ireland consent.

    Remarkable, if you think about it.

    I'm sure amongst all BJ's bullshit platitudes, 'uniting the country' must have been one of them. Presumably uniting the constituent nations of the UK individually wasn't quite what he meant.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900

    Sky reporting

    Jess Phillips about to withdraw from the contest

    I guess she will endorse Nandy as it won't be Starmer or Bailey.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 28,729
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting that the top four seats for the claimant count are all in Birmingham:

    Birmingham, Ladywood - 8.4%
    Birmingham, Hodge Hill - 8.1%
    Birmingham, Erdington - 7.9%
    Birmingham, Perry Barr - 7.7%
    The entire contiguous North East of Birmingham in fact.
    Alastair's piece the other day giving some of the history of Birmingham's decline was fascinating (if also a bit depressing).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,225
    eek said:

    Sky reporting

    Jess Phillips about to withdraw from the contest

    I guess she will endorse Nandy as it won't be Starmer or Bailey.
    Sad. She deserves better. And Jess v Boris would never be dull.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 29,122
    How will Johnson jump on HS2? He is coming under incredible force to scrap it from a range of people, not least some of his MPs, former cabinet ministers and of course his home base, the Daily Telegraph.

    But Mike is right, the whole Our Friends in the North strategy will be totally dead if he scraps the project.

    Time to write two essays?
  • eek said:

    Sky reporting

    Jess Phillips about to withdraw from the contest

    I guess she will endorse Nandy as it won't be Starmer or Bailey.
    Re your comment on train v car between London and Darlington I agree that the train is best choice. We are travelling to Euston in May from Colwyn Bay and the return is £65 each including our discount and it would make no sense to drive

    However, my son was saying that the cost for his family of 4 to travel to Europe was quoted at £1,600 return and in his case he is going to drive
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,131
    What does our own @Tissue_Price make of HS2 ?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,225
    woody662 said:

    Absolute nonsense, HS2 only benefits a tiny percentage of Northern people who are rich commuters. Diverting the money into local schemes which will be used by a significant portion of the population will far more popular. The polling was bad for HS2 before this latest cost rise. HS2 is like the European Union, people are told by the minority who benefit how good it is for them but just don't buy the argument.

    The overwhelming majority of people in the north almost never travel by train. You might as well recreate the line from Hexham to Riccarton junction or the railway bridge over the Solway from Bowness to Annan. At least those projects would be fun.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,131
    eek said:

    Sky reporting

    Jess Phillips about to withdraw from the contest

    I guess she will endorse Nandy as it won't be Starmer or Bailey.
    I'd have thought Thornberry or Starmer - isn't Nandy a long way from her regarding Brexit ?
  • isamisam Posts: 29,895
    ‘The average man is not directly interested in politics, and when he reads, he wants the current struggles of the world to be translated into a simple story about individuals…people worship power in the form in which they are able to understand it.’

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,023

    Sky reporting

    Jess Phillips about to withdraw from the contest

    Not a surprise.

    She's an adequate social worker, and clearly cares, but a leader? Never going to happen.
  • isamisam Posts: 29,895
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Sky reporting

    Jess Phillips about to withdraw from the contest

    I guess she will endorse Nandy as it won't be Starmer or Bailey.
    I'd have thought Thornberry or Starmer - isn't Nandy a long way from her regarding Brexit ?
    She seemed to be calling for Starmer to step aside the other day
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    edited January 21
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Sky reporting

    Jess Phillips about to withdraw from the contest

    I guess she will endorse Nandy as it won't be Starmer or Bailey.
    I'd have thought Thornberry or Starmer - isn't Nandy a long way from her regarding Brexit ?
    Can't be Starmer as she said he should withdraw earlier this week.
    Thornberry has a flag issue which could be a problem.

    So it's either Nandy or no one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,131
    algarkirk said:


    The overwhelming majority of people in the north almost never travel by train.

    It's because we all live a decent drive from a station with insufficient parking.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,023
    Clear its down to a straight choice between RLB and Starmer.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    Pulpstar said:

    algarkirk said:


    The overwhelming majority of people in the north almost never travel by train.

    It's because we all live a decent drive from a station with insufficient parking.
    22 years ago when we moved North we picked Darlington as it is literally the only place with decent communication links (motorway, train and plane) near the Dales where Mrs Eek had got her dream job as a Planner there.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864
    isam said:

    ‘The average man is not directly interested in politics, and when he reads, he wants the current struggles of the world to be translated into a simple story about individuals…people worship power in the form in which they are able to understand it.’

    Rather patrician.
    Still, at least an Old Etonian who could construct an argument.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,907
    Pulpstar said:

    What does our own @Tissue_Price make of HS2 ?

    He'll need to check with Dom
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,883
    edited January 21
    Pulpstar said:

    algarkirk said:


    The overwhelming majority of people in the north almost never travel by train.

    It's because we all live a decent drive from a station with insufficient parking.
    Fat chance trying to get Thunberg-fawing eco-loon planners to create adequate parking space.
  • Pulpstar said:

    What does our own @Tissue_Price make of HS2 ?

    Whatever the whips tell him to make of it. Which eventually leads us back to Boris at square one.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 454
    I suspect the way out for Boris is to let Phase 1 including both Birmingham stations go ahead but terminate for now at Old Oak Common rather than Euston. Meanwhile he will claim to “turbocharge” the northern section, including another vague speech about Manchester to Leeds and beyond.

    Further down the road, the much needed Euston upgrade (and safeguarded tunnel to Old Oak) can be green lit under a different budget.

    He’s not a very smart political operator if he scraps the whole project in favour of woolly plans that have zero chance of being approved yet alone with spades in ground prior to a 2024 election.
  • tlg86 said:

    Interesting that the top four seats for the claimant count are all in Birmingham:

    Birmingham, Ladywood - 8.4%
    Birmingham, Hodge Hill - 8.1%
    Birmingham, Erdington - 7.9%
    Birmingham, Perry Barr - 7.7%
    And likely to rise. A friend of mine who runs a medium-sized business in Brum had had to lay off some of his staff as a result of orders lost due to disruption of supplies when a no-deal Brexit looked possible. He did mention that those whose Facebook posts were supportive of Brexit were first for the chop. I'm not sure of the ethics of this, but I can understand his doing so.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900

    Pulpstar said:

    algarkirk said:


    The overwhelming majority of people in the north almost never travel by train.

    It's because we all live a decent drive from a station with insufficient parking.
    Fat chance trying to get Thunberg-fawing eco-loon planners to create more parking spaces.
    And you wonder why the young want to live in City Centres.
  • Trumps speech at Davos is a study in self appreciation and how glorious he is

    He must be taking lessons from Kim Jong-un though I doubt the audience will stand in devotion with metronomic applause
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    moonshine said:

    I suspect the way out for Boris is to let Phase 1 including both Birmingham stations go ahead but terminate for now at Old Oak Common rather than Euston. Meanwhile he will claim to “turbocharge” the northern section, including another vague speech about Manchester to Leeds and beyond.

    Further down the road, the much needed Euston upgrade (and safeguarded tunnel to Old Oak) can be green lit under a different budget.

    He’s not a very smart political operator if he scraps the whole project in favour of woolly plans that have zero chance of being approved yet alone with spades in ground prior to a 2024 election.

    That is the sane approach. Remove Euston from the project and move that work down the line.

    It would also have the advantage of ensuring there is a backup plan when things go pear shaped at Euston.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 21,744
    I hope it comes down to Starmer vs Thornberry. Two authentic working class candidates.

    Of which I of course hope that Thornberry will win.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 29,122

    Pulpstar said:

    What does our own @Tissue_Price make of HS2 ?

    Whatever the whips tell him to make of it. Which eventually leads us back to Boris at square one.
    This is a huge decision for Johnson. We will learn a lot about how he will govern when he announces the final fudge/result of his thinking.
  • TOPPING said:

    I hope it comes down to Starmer vs Thornberry. Two authentic working class candidates.

    Of which I of course hope that Thornberry will win.

    Speaking as the voice of the North, I can confirm they have impeccable working class credentials.
This discussion has been closed.