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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB leadership betting: Nandy edges up closer to RLB but Starm

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 22 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB leadership betting: Nandy edges up closer to RLB but Starmer remains the firm favourite

We have not looked at the LAB leadership betting since Jess Phillips dropped out and as can be seen from the latest chart the man movement has been for Lisa Nandy . This follows her latest union nomination moving her to within a whisper of getting onto the members ballot that goes out in March.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864
    First
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,023
    It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864
    Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,074
    The thing about Lisa Nandy is that she seems to be doing well in media interviews and at events like the GMB husting. That suggests to me that she is going to gain support over the campaign, which as Mike says is long. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her overtaking RLB quite soon in polling and in the betting. Enough to win the gig? Well, probably not, given Starmer's initial big lead, but it's worth remembering that in two of the three recent Labour leadership contests the early favourites didn't make it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,767
    edited January 22

    It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.

    Nandy might run Starmer closer than a lot of people think, I think, although I doubt she will be leader before Starmer. Among my amateur focus group of my sons she seems to have a rare mix of quirkiness, intelligence and sex appeal.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,352
    As I said, Sanders will win Iowa. Hillary's unendorsement has helped him.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1219950436737830912
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616

    The thing about Lisa Nandy is that she seems to be doing well in media interviews and at events like the GMB husting. That suggests to me that she is going to gain support over the campaign, which as Mike says is long. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her overtaking RLB quite soon in polling and in the betting. Enough to win the gig? Well, probably not, given Starmer's initial big lead, but it's worth remembering that in two of the three recent Labour leadership contests the early favourites didn't make it.

    Nandy must pip RLB for 2nd with Starmer in 1st but not too close to 50% - then pick up most of RLB's prefs to in turn pip Starmer at the end. This is a narrow path but it's IMO possible.

    Per the market right now, I think Starmer should be shorter than current 1.45, Nandy should be longer than her 7, and RLB should be MUCH longer than the 6.2.
  • isamisam Posts: 29,895
    When will Lisa Nandy become leader of the Labour Party?

    Before 2021 5/1
    2021 or after 1/6
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,013

    It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.

    Nandy might run Starmer closer than a lot of people think, I think, although I doubt she will be leader before Starmer. Among my amateur focus group of my sons she seems to have a rare mix of quirkiness, intelligence and sex appeal.
    She's probably a good trading bet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 29,122
    nunu2 said:

    As I said, Sanders will win Iowa. Hillary's unendorsement has helped him.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1219950436737830912

    Crazy. Dems are bonkers. Four more years of Trump.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616

    Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.

    That is one super-talented weirdo right there.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,499
    Labour should be very grateful that hardly anyone will be aware of Corbyn doing PMQs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    Having been boosted by the endorsement of Jess Phillips who says she will vote Nandy first and Starmer as her second preference, Lisa Nandy promises an 'empowering' welfare system with reversals to welfare cuts paid for by ditching planned National Insurance cuts and a less complicated welfare system.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51204554
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 28,598
    Unlike the other two contenders, she is evidently thinking. Her thoughts look like the wrong thoughts to me, but she is at least having them.

    Unlike them, she also has huge institutional disadvantages. I still expect she’ll come third.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    edited January 22
    nunu2 said:

    As I said, Sanders will win Iowa. Hillary's unendorsement has helped him.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1219950436737830912

    Sanders takes the lead 27% to 24% for Biden, with Warren on 14% and Buttigieg on 11% and Bloomberg on 5% and Klobuchar on 4% in that new CNN national Democratic nomination poll of registered Democrats
  • tlg86 said:

    Labour should be very grateful that hardly anyone will be aware of Corbyn doing PMQs.

    It is just embarrassing. April 4th cannot come soon enough for labour and the end of Corbyn
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 21,744
    Emily into 90s. Yeah I know but that's a big contraction from yesterday.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900

    The thing about Lisa Nandy is that she seems to be doing well in media interviews and at events like the GMB husting. That suggests to me that she is going to gain support over the campaign, which as Mike says is long. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her overtaking RLB quite soon in polling and in the betting. Enough to win the gig? Well, probably not, given Starmer's initial big lead, but it's worth remembering that in two of the three recent Labour leadership contests the early favourites didn't make it.

    I think the important bit here is where do second preferences go.
    Bailey's second preferences are likely to head to Nandy,
    Nandy's will probably split 50/50 between Starmer and Bailey.
    Starmer's will likely head to Nandy,

    I suspect if Nandy gets into second place she may just win.
  • tlg86 said:

    Labour should be very grateful that hardly anyone will be aware of Corbyn doing PMQs.

    It is just embarrassing. April 4th cannot come soon enough for labour and the end of Corbyn
    Its the same old stuff. The Greggs stuff is incredible. Greggs give a payout bonus and it puts some staff who cannily use the taper and allowances to hit the sweetspot into the zone where they lose UC. And this is a problem.. That's how it is supposed to work. The old system was utterly brutal (well maybe not tax credits as by the end HMRC just gave up trying to claw back over payments), you came off the benefit entirely and you had to reapply to get back on it.

    UC has its flaws, but not here, its operating as it should.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 29,122

    It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.

    100K new members apparently. Who are they? Anti-Jezza returning now he's going or left wingers who lapsed?
  • HYUFD said:

    Having been boosted by the endorsement of Jess Phillips who says she will vote Nandy first and Starmer as her second preference, Lisa Nandy promises an 'empowering' welfare system with reversals to welfare cuts paid for by ditching planned National Insurance cuts and a less complicated welfare system.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51204554

    UC is the less complicated welfare system....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,074

    It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.

    100K new members apparently. Who are they? Anti-Jezza returning now he's going or left wingers who lapsed?
    Based on those I know (admittedly not a representative sample!), they are all Anti-Jezzas returning, or joining for the first time, in the hope of using their leadership contest votes to make Labour electable again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 29,122
    eek said:

    The thing about Lisa Nandy is that she seems to be doing well in media interviews and at events like the GMB husting. That suggests to me that she is going to gain support over the campaign, which as Mike says is long. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her overtaking RLB quite soon in polling and in the betting. Enough to win the gig? Well, probably not, given Starmer's initial big lead, but it's worth remembering that in two of the three recent Labour leadership contests the early favourites didn't make it.

    I think the important bit here is where do second preferences go.
    Bailey's second preferences are likely to head to Nandy,
    Nandy's will probably split 50/50 between Starmer and Bailey.
    Starmer's will likely head to Nandy,

    I suspect if Nandy gets into second place she may just win.
    Dark horse, dark horse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 17,807
    Or it could just be an ordinary rugby ball and a giant android Dom ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616
    eek said:

    I think the important bit here is where do second preferences go.
    Bailey's second preferences are likely to head to Nandy,
    Nandy's will probably split 50/50 between Starmer and Bailey.
    Starmer's will likely head to Nandy,

    I suspect if Nandy gets into second place she may just win.

    Yes, if it's 43/29/28, something like that?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,329

    Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.

    In the mid noughties I spent a few weeks in a secure mental health unit wherein I and my fellow cosmonauts of the psyche never looked as fucked up as this guy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 39,552
    Magic Grandpa went full on shouty mcshouty face when Boris jibed that he was the most popular Labour leader with the membership of both the Labour party and the Tory party.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 28,598
    Maybe it’s because my dress sense is uneven but I can think of far better things to make fun of Dominic Cummings about than his appearance.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,340
    FPT

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    Love this bit.

    One cabinet minister, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, told me that Ireland was a small country, which meant that the quality of its ministers could not match that of those in the U.K.. And yet this attitude proved part of London’s undoing in the negotiations, which saw Ireland win more of its objectives than Britain did.

    Any ideas who this arrogant twit could have been?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 28,598

    FPT

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    Love this bit.

    One cabinet minister, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, told me that Ireland was a small country, which meant that the quality of its ministers could not match that of those in the U.K.. And yet this attitude proved part of London’s undoing in the negotiations, which saw Ireland win more of its objectives than Britain did.

    Any ideas who this arrogant twit could have been?
    Britain is hardly overflowing with super talented ministers just now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 39,552
    edited January 22
    RBL supporters don't appear to want much comprise in their hard left position, even if it makes them unelectable...no surrender to the Blairite wing.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/01/21/five-more-things-we-discovered-about-labour-member
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 305

    Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.

    'And today we unveil the Classic Dom Classic Collection for Spring '20...'

    I have to say, Cummings' 100%, blood-and-guts, heart-and-soul commitment to trolling in everything he does is really quite impressive.
  • isamisam Posts: 29,895
    edited January 22

    Maybe it’s because my dress sense is uneven but I can think of far better things to make fun of Dominic Cummings about than his appearance.

    Just make a note of it for the next time a Left wing woman’s dress sense is mocked and a lefty tries to make out its outrageous sexism
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,329

    FPT

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    Love this bit.

    One cabinet minister, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, told me that Ireland was a small country, which meant that the quality of its ministers could not match that of those in the U.K.. And yet this attitude proved part of London’s undoing in the negotiations, which saw Ireland win more of its objectives than Britain did.

    Any ideas who this arrogant twit could have been?
    It definitely has the feel of something that I, Raabot would say and 100% believe.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883
    Nigelb said:

    Or it could just be an ordinary rugby ball and a giant android Dom ?
    Nah, he just took the ball off the Munchkins. Because they were having fun.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883

    Magic Grandpa went full on shouty mcshouty face when Boris jibed that he was the most popular Labour leader with the membership of both the Labour party and the Tory party.

    Light blue touchpaper.

    Stand well back.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 21,744
    fpt

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    That's it? Canada?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.

    In the mid noughties I spent a few weeks in a secure mental health unit wherein I and my fellow cosmonauts of the psyche never looked as fucked up as this guy.
    Aye but did you mastermind both a destiny changing referendum result and the biggest parliamentary majority for almost twenty years while there?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 397
    edited January 22
    Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.

    He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.

    His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,074
    The 28 current EU countries already have varying VAT rates and varying exemptions, so I don't see why that should be a problem.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616

    Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.

    He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.

    His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.

    Does he IYO present good evidence in his blogs for these charges then?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616
    TOPPING said:

    That's it? Canada?

    And we get Harry and Meghan back!
  • marke0903marke0903 Posts: 29
    Monty Python star Terry Jones has died aged 77
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 28,598
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    That's it? Canada?
    It’s an absurdly optimistic aspiration given how Leavers have trashed every civic institution in the country and incinerated Britain’s international influence, but at least it’s something for Leavers to imagine idly at the end of a long day’s nihilistic rage.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699

    Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.

    He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.

    His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.

    Wasn’t he an advisor to the one-time Education Secretary? Is it just remotely possible that some of the actions taken by the Education Minister based on his advice might in any way be connected to the grammatical and spelling errors and the inability to interpret mathematical and graphical data he is now complaining about?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616

    Aye but did you mastermind both a destiny changing referendum result and the biggest parliamentary majority for almost twenty years while there?

    Not to kick off another "culture war" shindig - I'm up to my ears in all that - but I did find the Cummings job ad to be sexist.

    "Supertalented, weirdos, geeks and misfits."

    Mental image almost wholly male? I think so.

    Likely to attract plenty of female applicants? IMO, no chance.

    Legal? Perhaps. But ethical? - deeply arguable.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    That's it? Canada?
    Probably more specifically Alberta as far as the likes of Rees Mogg, IDS, Farage and Francois are concerned
  • Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273
    I just tried to get a ticket for Saturday's leadership hustings in Leeds. Fully booked. Seems a bit unfair that it is first come, first served, rather than everyone going into a draw to allocate tickets.

    I guess I could stand outside with a large #Sandy4Nandy placard, until the police move me on.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,742

    Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.

    He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.

    His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.

    In my experience of civil service advice to ministers, the quality of writing is very good (and certainly much more concise and easier to follow than what's on Cummings' blog). If anything I think there's an overinvestment in prose at the expense of actual evidence.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    That's it? Canada?
    Probably more specifically Alberta as far as the likes of Rees Mogg, IDS, Farage and Francois are concerned
    Careful now. They had an NDP government not so long ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 397
    edited January 22
    kinabalu said:

    Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.

    He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.

    His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.

    Does he IYO present good evidence in his blogs for these charges then?
    That's a good question, and I have to admit I didn't see an actual report written by an actual civil servant. He does not present one. But his blogs are long, painstaking and detailed and contain plenty of lengthy anecdotes.

    For example he relates how mandarins complained when he and Gove raised the issue of poor reporting from their departments and they in response they made the mandarins do all the checking of the reports themselves.

    They then quickly conceded there might be a problem.

    Personally I don;t think he's making this up. As I say, I don;t agree with some of his solutions, and at times he can be vituperative. He does not like PPE graduates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    edited January 22

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    That's it? Canada?
    Probably more specifically Alberta as far as the likes of Rees Mogg, IDS, Farage and Francois are concerned
    Careful now. They had an NDP government not so long ago.
    The Conservative Party of Canada won 64 out of 87 seats in the Alberta election last year and 54% of the vote, an even bigger landslide than Boris got.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election

    Despite Trudeau's Liberals scraping home with most seats nationally at the last Canadian election and doing a deal with the NDP, in Alberta the Conservatives won 33 out of 34 seats to just 1 for the NDP.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,131
    Cummings gives no fucks about what he wears.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 397
    rkrkrk said:

    Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.

    He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.

    His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.

    In my experience of civil service advice to ministers, the quality of writing is very good (and certainly much more concise and easier to follow than what's on Cummings' blog). If anything I think there's an overinvestment in prose at the expense of actual evidence.
    Fair enough, and Cummings does point out there are plenty of exceptions.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 7,616

    That's a good question, and I have to admit I didn't see an actual report written by an actual civil servant. He does not present one. But his blogs are long, painstaking and detailed and contain plenty of lengthy anecdotes.

    For example he relates how mandarins complained when he and Gove raised the issue of poor reporting from their departments and they in response they made the mandarins do all the checking of the reports themselves.

    They then quickly conceded there might be a problem.

    Personally I don;t think he's making this up. As I say, I don;t agree with some of his solutions, and at times he can be vituperative. He does not like PPE graduates.

    Clearly a bright guy anyway. Probably suffering a bout of hubris atm, off the back of 2016 and 2019 triumphs, but this does not mean he doesn't have some good ideas on civil service reform. I really do not want to read his blogs but I suppose I ought to given he is the man of the moment.
  • HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Unless you take the view that Boris's word means something. He did say more than once there would be no border down the Irish Sea. Can Boris square the circle?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040

    It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.

    Nandy might run Starmer closer than a lot of people think, I think, although I doubt she will be leader before Starmer. Among my amateur focus group of my sons she seems to have a rare mix of quirkiness, intelligence and sex appeal.
    Talking of sex appeal, did you know that one of the runners for Deputy Leader is a former model?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601941/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Curious-case-Labour-hopeful-says-ve-not-swimwear-model.html
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,742
    kinabalu said:

    That's a good question, and I have to admit I didn't see an actual report written by an actual civil servant. He does not present one. But his blogs are long, painstaking and detailed and contain plenty of lengthy anecdotes.

    For example he relates how mandarins complained when he and Gove raised the issue of poor reporting from their departments and they in response they made the mandarins do all the checking of the reports themselves.

    They then quickly conceded there might be a problem.

    Personally I don;t think he's making this up. As I say, I don;t agree with some of his solutions, and at times he can be vituperative. He does not like PPE graduates.

    Clearly a bright guy anyway. Probably suffering a bout of hubris atm, off the back of 2016 and 2019 triumphs, but this does not mean he doesn't have some good ideas on civil service reform. I really do not want to read his blogs but I suppose I ought to given he is the man of the moment.
    They're quite entertaining, although you'd have to be very well read to know all of the random people and ideas he drops in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819

    It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.

    Nandy might run Starmer closer than a lot of people think, I think, although I doubt she will be leader before Starmer. Among my amateur focus group of my sons she seems to have a rare mix of quirkiness, intelligence and sex appeal.
    Talking of sex appeal, did you know that one of the runners for Deputy Leader is a former model?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601941/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Curious-case-Labour-hopeful-says-ve-not-swimwear-model.html
    Thankfully Rosanna Allin Khan not Richard Burgon
  • Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,040
    Pulpstar said:

    Cummings gives no fucks about what he wears.

    With him and Boris in No 10, it's surely the scruffiest Downing Street team in history. Both men are inveterate slobs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    edited January 22
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,273
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/

    That's it? Canada?
    Probably more specifically Alberta as far as the likes of Rees Mogg, IDS, Farage and Francois are concerned
    Careful now. They had an NDP government not so long ago.
    The Conservative Party of Canada won 64 out of 87 seats in the Alberta election last year and 54% of the vote, an even bigger landslide than Boris got.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election

    Despite Trudeau's Liberals scraping home with most seats nationally at the last Canadian election and doing a deal with the NDP, in Alberta the Conservatives won 33 out of 34 seats to just 1 for the NDP.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election
    A split right realised they had to get together in order to win under FPTP.

    As an aside, I had initially assumed that Wildrose was some kind of eco-friendly kumbaya party. Came as a surprise when I discovered that they were right wing loons.
  • Lisa Nandy through but oddly she is drifting in the betting on that news. It may be people looking again at the polling.
  • Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 397

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    Plus of course the sometimes round the clock personal care that is sometimes needed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.

    Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,275
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    'is the key reason'? Might be. Might not be. Suspect it never crossed the mind of the vast majority. Do you think if the situation was different a whole lot of protestants might vote Sinn Fein or SDLP and Catholics DUP or UUP?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 132

    Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.

    He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.

    His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.

    I am writing this reply while sitting in a civil service department on a secondment. I'm in a different sector to Cummings' experiences, but the staff I meet are broadly highly skilled (with variation, as in any workplace).

    Most civil service reports are available online under FoI. Those defending Cummings might actually like to read some of them: maybe they could point out all these errors that supposedly exist? If briefings for ministers are more error-laden, perhaps that's because the politicians ask for briefings on random subjects at very short notice?

    There are certainly aspects of the civil service that could use reform. There are areas of failings. Civil society does tend to value literacy over numeracy: I'd happily see far more maths training for many civil servants. The worst problem I see, however, is high turnover, which is sometimes driven by politicians desiring to be seen to have done something and calling for a re-organisation. The disruption and the loss of institutional memory is costly.

    We can also talk about pay. The Conservative Party strongly believes that high pay is appropriate in the private sector if that is what market forces demand. Oddly, when it comes to public sector pay, the idea that better pay attracts more skilled people is forgotten. The civil service loses skilled people to the private sector all the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    edited January 22
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.

    Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
    No you are.

    We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.

    Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    Michael Palin on World at One confirming his rep as the nicest man alive in the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    'is the key reason'? Might be. Might not be. Suspect it never crossed the mind of the vast majority. Do you think if the situation was different a whole lot of protestants might vote Sinn Fein or SDLP and Catholics DUP or UUP?
    Irrelevant, the fact is more Northern Ireland voters voted for London to be the supreme decider of their affairs not Dublin despite Brexit
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    edited January 22
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    What did the unionist parties get in 2010 or 2015? The trend is definitely not in their favour.

    Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    edited January 22
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864
    Pulpstar said:

    Cummings gives no fucks about what he wears.

    And yet his fanbois think it's trolling.
    I have to say it gives the impression of an AWFUL lot of effort being put into it, reminiscent of several dicks I knew at art school.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.

    Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
    No you are.

    We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.

    Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed
    I see that once again you misrepresent my position.

    And also that you fail to answer the question. I am well aware that Stormont is subordinate to Westminster. But my question was not about the constitutional position nor about the results of the election.

    Since the election Stormont has voted against the WA. So once again - do you think that
    imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?

    It may help you when thinking about your answer if you try to look at the possible political consequences of this in the future rather than merely repeating the legal/constitutional status as of now.
  • isamisam Posts: 29,895

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    ‘Capstan non filters’ another slice of life from The Jam

    ‘Saturdays Kids’ described Ukip voters I thought

    https://genius.com/The-jam-saturdays-kids-lyrics
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    I was fortunate, in that the form of dementia my mother suffered until her recent passing was not Altzheimers, but another type. It meant that she did still know exactly who I was to the end - and her face would light up when she saw me arrive to visit. But she did live a world of her own creation. This meant, for example, I would get berated for not congratulating her on her recent award of the Nobel Prize.

    (Literature, if you were wondering.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    edited January 22
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    What did the unionist parties get in 2010 or 2015? The trend is definitely not in their favour.

    Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.
    In 2010 Unionist parties only got 40% so their vote has actually risen 3% despite Brexit in a decade. 43% is also more than 38%.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland

    Though Boris will of course ban any Irish unity or Scottish independence referenda as per the winning Tory manifesto anyway.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 17,864
    Cyclefree said:

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.
    I would like to think that's what I'd do, but having witnessed the disease at close quarters, when do you know when the optimal point has arrived, or at least have enough faculties left to recognise it? When does the frog realise it's boiled?
  • Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    I was fortunate, in that the form of dementia my mother suffered until her recent passing was not Altzheimers, but another type. It meant that she did still know exactly who I was to the end - and her face would light up when she saw me arrive to visit. But she did live a world of her own creation. This meant, for example, I would get berated for not congratulating her on her recent award of the Nobel Prize.

    (Literature, if you were wondering.)
    You are Melania Trump AICMFP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.

    Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
    No you are.

    We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.

    Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed
    I see that once again you misrepresent my position.

    And also that you fail to answer the question. I am well aware that Stormont is subordinate to Westminster. But my question was not about the constitutional position nor about the results of the election.

    Since the election Stormont has voted against the WA. So once again - do you think that
    imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?

    It may help you when thinking about your answer if you try to look at the possible political consequences of this in the future rather than merely repeating the legal/constitutional status as of now.
    The political consequence that the combined DUP and UUP vote was higher in 2019 than 2010 despite Brexit and the Withdrawal Agreement?
  • eekeek Posts: 6,900
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    What did the unionist parties get in 2010 or 2015? The trend is definitely not in their favour.

    Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.
    In 2010 Unionist parties only got 40% so their vote has actually risen 3% despite Brexit in a decade

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland

    Thought Boris will of course ban any Irish unity or Scottish independence referenda as per the winning Tory manifesto anyway
    Not so easy in Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement requires it to occur if the conditions are met. And those conditions are:-

    “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,099
    Cyclefree said:

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.
    This is why we need legalised euthanasia in the UK, I recommend everyone to look up the Dignity in Dying campaign. People should be able to choose to pass away at a time and place of their choosing with their family and friends present (if desired. It's simply awful and scaring seeing loved ones completely mentally absent yet suffering, and is deeply unfair on children who can't afford to put their work on hold to make sure that they are there for the final moments.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 67,819
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    What did the unionist parties get in 2010 or 2015? The trend is definitely not in their favour.

    Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.
    In 2010 Unionist parties only got 40% so their vote has actually risen 3% despite Brexit in a decade

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland

    Thought Boris will of course ban any Irish unity or Scottish independence referenda as per the winning Tory manifesto anyway
    Not so easy in Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement requires it to occur if the conditions are met. And those conditions are:-

    “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

    And under Boris a Northern Ireland Secretary would never consider that or they would be sacked on the spot
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:
    As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respected
    Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.
    Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.

    Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.

    Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
    No you are.

    We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.

    Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed
    I see that once again you misrepresent my position.

    And also that you fail to answer the question. I am well aware that Stormont is subordinate to Westminster. But my question was not about the constitutional position nor about the results of the election.

    Since the election Stormont has voted against the WA. So once again - do you think that
    imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?

    It may help you when thinking about your answer if you try to look at the possible political consequences of this in the future rather than merely repeating the legal/constitutional status as of now.
    The political consequence that the combined DUP and UUP vote was higher in 2019 than 2010 despite Brexit and the Withdrawal Agreement?
    I hate to break this to you but we are now in 2020.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 31,883
    Cyclefree said:

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.
    The terrifying thought is being incapacitated before that option is achievable. It puts loved ones in a terrible predicament - watch you suffer, for maybe years, knowing the you before incapacity would be expessing hating every minute of it. Or resort to extreme measures - and have to take the dire consequences. I do have very great sympathies for those who take the latter course.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 16,699
    Chameleon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.

    There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.
    Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.
    I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.
    This is why we need legalised euthanasia in the UK, I recommend everyone to look up the Dignity in Dying campaign. People should be able to choose to pass away at a time and place of their choosing with their family and friends present (if desired. It's simply awful and scaring seeing loved ones completely mentally absent yet suffering, and is deeply unfair on children who can't afford to put their work on hold to make sure that they are there for the final moments.
    I don’t want to be euthanised. I will, if I have to, take my own life quietly and without fuss.
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