The HS2 debate is incredibly parochial isn't it. I keep hearing people on the radio from the north saying things like "It only benefits people between London and Birmingham and vice versa and since I'm in the north I don't like the idea of it".
Yep, it’s dire.
Did arguments over HS1 involve people complaining it only benefited London and the French?
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!
A lot of companies are cancelling any business trips to China for the next month, and even if the company want to send him they’re going to struggle to find airlines that want to fly there (and take the risk of someone being taken ill on board).
Japan’s first case of domestic transmission... a bus driver:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/28/national/japan-first-domestic-transmission-coronavirus/ One of three new cases reported in Japan on Tuesday is a male bus driver in his 60s who lives in Nara Prefecture. The man did not travel to Wuhan but drove buses with tour groups from the city twice this month, officials said. The man is the first Japanese confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus while this is also the first human-to-human transmission confirmed in Japan...
Makes you think there must be loads of people walking around with this who haven't been diagnosed yet. The dude was driving tour groups backwards and forwards since the 11th, went to the doctor on 17th, got told it wasn't too bad and sent home, then only got diagnosed the other day when it got worse and he went to the doctor's again.
Yes, there's now overwhelming evidence for asymptomatic transmission, which could make it very difficult indeed to get under control. In contrast, SARS had an incubation period of up to two weeks during which patients were not infectious, which is why we could prevent its spread relatively easily. This coronavirus has already seen documented cases exceed the total for SARS.
Unlike SARS, trying to stop the movement of people with high temperatures doesn't work as a tool for controlling it.
HS2 - I’m surprised the Govt don’t organise an advertising campaign explaining what HS2 is actually supposed to do (and get away from the idea that it’s just to allow people to get from Brum to London half an hour quicker). I don’t think the arguments about overcapacity and freeing up space to improve local services, along with the follow up program in the North, are so complicated that they couldn’t be incorporated into a short video that could be put on TV and spread on social media.
And even if opposition continues at least advocates would be making their case with a more informed public and not fighting a losing battle from the start.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Younger son has a week-long business trip to China very shortly. I wonder!
A lot of companies are cancelling any business trips to China for the next month, and even if the company want to send him they’re going to struggle to find airlines that want to fly there (and take the risk of someone being taken ill on board).
It's going to be a huge proving ground for new dial-in conferencing businesses.
Bad news for business class travel when people realise they don't REALLY have to traipse half way round the world for a two hour meeting.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Right approach. I’ve been telling the owners of my business the same thing.
I think the bigger problem is going to be risk management. As professional service firms move from simply charging time to charging for results their basic model is undermined. Most professional firms have relatively low risks (insolvency of clients being the main one) at the moment and few skills in assessing them. Not only do they need to make a preliminary judgment as to what "success" means but they need to quantify the risk/reward ratio. In my limited experience at the bar counsel are very poor at this and take a quantity rather than quality approach. For firms with bigger overheads this just will not do.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
The HS2 debate is incredibly parochial isn't it. I keep hearing people on the radio from the north saying things like "It only benefits people between London and Birmingham and vice versa and since I'm in the north I don't like the idea of it".
Not particularly. It's fairly rational to question such a massive expenditure when northern cities will see no benefit for a full two decades - particularly in the context of the lack of investment in transport links in the Liverpool-Hull corridor, or if you prefer, the Manchester-Leeds-Sheffiedl triangle.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Right approach. I’ve been telling the owners of my business the same thing.
I think the bigger problem is going to be risk management. As professional service firms move from simply charging time to charging for results their basic model is undermined. Most professional firms have relatively low risks (insolvency of clients being the main one) at the moment and few skills in assessing them. Not only do they need to make a preliminary judgment as to what "success" means but they need to quantify the risk/reward ratio. In my limited experience at the bar counsel are very poor at this and take a quantity rather than quality approach. For firms with bigger overheads this just will not do.
There were several states in 2016 where the non-Rep/Dem party candidate may have shaken up the result:
Michigan - Hillary lost by 0.23%, the Green polled 1.07%
Minnesota - Trump lost by 1.52% , the Libertarian polled 3.84%
Nebraska 2nd - Trump won by 2.24%, the Libertarian polled 4.54%
Nevada - Trump lost by 2.42%, the Libertarian polled 3.29%
New Hampshire - Trump lost by 0.32%, the Libertarian polled 4.13%, the Green polled 0.88%
New Mexico - Trump lost by 8.21%, the Libertarian polled 9.34%
Pennsylvania - Trump won by 0.72%, the Libertarian polled 2.38%, the Green polled 0.81%
Wisconsin - Trump won by 0.77%, the Libertarian polled 3.58%, the Green polled 1.04%
The great* John McAfee is running for the Libertarian Party nomination again in 2020. As is the former Governor (and Republican Senator) for Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee. As is this man:
It will be interesting to see if the Libertarians do as well in 2020. If they only polls (say) 1%, then it probably gives Donald Trump a c. 2% boost on his 2016 result. Worth bearing in mind.
* When I say "great", what I actually mean is "greatly disturbed"
I suspect some Libertarian voters felt able to risk voting for them when the choice was Trump v Hillary but if the choice was Trump v the socialist Sanders they would have to hold their nose and vote for Trump to keep Sanders out, much like Tory Remainers voted for Boris to keep Corbyn out
But the President represents the WHOLE of the USA. A bit like an MP representing the constituents in his/her seat.
The electoral college is a bit like an MP being voted in by separate contests in (for argument's sake) Broxtowe western bit, Broxtowe northern bit, Broxtowe eastern bit and Broxtowe southern bit.
Like I said above, it's a seriously crap system.
No the Electoral College is working as intended. To be elected President you need to represent many states not just be wildly popular in a few states while objectionable in most.
It is a bit like our system valuing Broxtowe as a swIng seat and not just worrying about stacking up votes in Islington.
A national President should be decided by a national vote.
Hillary 65,853,514 votes Trump 62,984,828 votes
Note that opinion polls for the US as a whole go by head-to-head percentages.
So Tennis has got it wrong? 0-6 6-4 6-4 who is the winner?
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
As part of my business is selling regulatory consultancy I would suggest IT is a much bigger threat than globalisation. Documents can be scanned and analysed at rapid pace. General bs is rapidly discarded and only genuine thought retained. The pressure to perform is constant.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the biggest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Obvious is not necessarily wrong.
Fixed fees would be another alternative to time-based payments.
If I wanted something that might be vaguely original then I'd spend 10 minutes (15 at the outside) researching the top half dozen firms in [insert sector here] social media activity to see if, say, twitter activity or number of followers or youtube videos correlate with size, profitability or anything at all.
But I expect the winner will state the bleeding obvious in an engaging way.
I'm guessing it's a law firm rather than an accountancy firm but I may have a suitable worry for you.
The small accountancy firms are being destroyed on the value added front by Freeagent and the other book-keeping SAAS packages as more and more functionality is added to their systems.
Now the issue isn't really the work the accountancy firms is losing - it's the fact it eats into the work Junior Accountants would be doing which means there is less work available to give to people you would previously be training up resulting in less options. The prime example would be you used to have 3 people preparing accounts, now you have one and few choices when you need / want to promote.
It's a numbers game and I'm starting to see it now in IT. There are certain skillsets where the junior people no longer exist to allow you to find people suitable for the next level up.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Right approach. I’ve been telling the owners of my business the same thing.
I think the bigger problem is going to be risk management. As professional service firms move from simply charging time to charging for results their basic model is undermined. Most professional firms have relatively low risks (insolvency of clients being the main one) at the moment and few skills in assessing them. Not only do they need to make a preliminary judgment as to what "success" means but they need to quantify the risk/reward ratio. In my limited experience at the bar counsel are very poor at this and take a quantity rather than quality approach. For firms with bigger overheads this just will not do.
If you look back 15 years you will have seem some of the bigger tech-focused law firms taking stakes in clients instead of cash. That didn’t work well - where are Brobeck or Thelen now (answer, bust). Howrey as well (contingent fees).
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the biggest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Obvious is not necessarily wrong.
Fixed fees would be another alternative to time-based payments.
If I wanted something that might be vaguely original then I'd spend 10 minutes (15 at the outside) researching the top half dozen firms in [insert sector here] social media activity to see if, say, twitter activity or number of followers or youtube videos correlate with size, profitability or anything at all.
But I expect the winner will state the bleeding obvious in an engaging way.
I'm guessing it's a law firm rather than an accountancy firm but I may have a suitable worry for you.
The small accountancy firms are being destroyed on the value added front by Freeagent and the other book-keeping SAAS packages as more and more functionality is added to their systems.
Now the issue isn't really the work the accountancy firms is losing - it's the fact it eats into the work Junior Accountants would be doing which means there is less work available to give to people you would previously be training up resulting in less options. The prime example would be you used to have 3 people preparing accounts, now you have one and few choices when you need / want to promote.
It's a numbers game and I'm starting to see it now in IT. There are certain skillsets where the junior people no longer exist to allow you to find people suitable for the next level up.
Thanks for this. I believe the same is also happening with law, albeit at a slower pace.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
I would say the biggest challenge for professional service firms that are growing is talent shortage. Sourcing professionals that are genuinely at the peak of their game is very very difficult.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
I would say the biggest challenge for professional service firms that are growing is talent shortage. Sourcing professionals that are genuinely at the peak of their game is very very difficult.
Why are we repatriating them? Surely the only sane options are to either place them in a camp for 3 weeks or leave them there.
Sky are going really big on this, Kay Burley just going nuts about it....despite her interviewing an independent expert who is a professor working on a vaccine, explained that the government response is actually appropriate / proportionate and that all people will have been screened before they get to the UK and are very low risk.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
It's also worth reading (albeit you don't have time) Kevin Kelly's "The Inevitable". The short precis you need is - While "the future is here not evenly distributed" that distribution will occur over the next 20 years.
You can see it in IT, there is a big push on one level towards "No / Low Code" programming for mortals and on the other Black Box AI where tested models are applied to known business cases.
HS2 - I’m surprised the Govt don’t organise an advertising campaign explaining what HS2 is actually supposed to do (and get away from the idea that it’s just to allow people to get from Brum to London half an hour quicker). I don’t think the arguments about overcapacity and freeing up space to improve local services, along with the follow up program in the North, are so complicated that they couldn’t be incorporated into a short video that could be put on TV and spread on social media.
And even if opposition continues at least advocates would be making their case with a more informed public and not fighting a losing battle from the start.
Absolutely. Start with it freeing up sufficient freight train capacity to take xx,000 lorries off the M1 and M6 every day.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
I would say the biggest challenge for professional service firms that are growing is talent shortage. Sourcing professionals that are genuinely at the peak of their game is very very difficult.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
I would say the biggest challenge for professional service firms that are growing is talent shortage. Sourcing professionals that are genuinely at the peak of their game is very very difficult.
That’s easily solved by hiring me to be honest.
I may have given you the perfect subject to sell yourself then!
I assume Farage will be launching his new party in the next few days. It's apparently going to be called Reform.
Have there been any PB articles on the effect of The Brexit Party on the 2019 GE? As the early results were coming in, I noticed the decrease in the Labour vote was almost exactly the Brexit Party score in some Northern seats, with the Tories standing still
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the biggest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Obvious is not necessarily wrong.
Fixed fees would be another alternative to time-based payments.
If I wanted something that might be vaguely original then I'd spend 10 minutes (15 at the outside) researching the top half dozen firms in [insert sector here] social media activity to see if, say, twitter activity or number of followers or youtube videos correlate with size, profitability or anything at all.
But I expect the winner will state the bleeding obvious in an engaging way.
I'm guessing it's a law firm rather than an accountancy firm but I may have a suitable worry for you.
The small accountancy firms are being destroyed on the value added front by Freeagent and the other book-keeping SAAS packages as more and more functionality is added to their systems.
Now the issue isn't really the work the accountancy firms is losing - it's the fact it eats into the work Junior Accountants would be doing which means there is less work available to give to people you would previously be training up resulting in less options. The prime example would be you used to have 3 people preparing accounts, now you have one and few choices when you need / want to promote.
It's a numbers game and I'm starting to see it now in IT. There are certain skillsets where the junior people no longer exist to allow you to find people suitable for the next level up.
Thanks for this. I believe the same is also happening with law, albeit at a slower pace.
It’s definitely happening in IT and a number of other more traditional professions. Especially people wanting to get a fixed price for a piece of work, as opposed to the more traditional hourly rate. This transfers a lot of the risk to the contractor.
The funniest is the suggestion that the next generation of automated planes will be able to fly with only one pilot (with remote control and auto land capability were he to become incapacitated) - but with no thinking as to how they might deal with the decade of continuous training that it currently takes to get a pilot qualified as an airline Captain.
Why are we repatriating them? Surely the only sane options are to either place them in a camp for 3 weeks or leave them there.
Sky are going really big on this, Kay Burley just going nuts about it....despite her interviewing an independent expert who is a professor working on a vaccine, explained that the government response is actually appropriate / proportionate and that all people will have been screened before they get to the UK and are very low risk.
Kay Burley is, or at least gives an Oscar winning impression of being, simply very, very stupid and seems unable to process anything other than A to B straight lines.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Right approach. I’ve been telling the owners of my business the same thing.
I think the bigger problem is going to be risk management. As professional service firms move from simply charging time to charging for results their basic model is undermined. Most professional firms have relatively low risks (insolvency of clients being the main one) at the moment and few skills in assessing them. Not only do they need to make a preliminary judgment as to what "success" means but they need to quantify the risk/reward ratio. In my limited experience at the bar counsel are very poor at this and take a quantity rather than quality approach. For firms with bigger overheads this just will not do.
If you look back 15 years you will have seem some of the bigger tech-focused law firms taking stakes in clients instead of cash. That didn’t work well - where are Brobeck or Thelen now (answer, bust). Howrey as well (contingent fees).
Yep, 20 years ago when I was a solicitor it was not uncommon for our commercial partners to take small stakes in buyouts and start ups as a proportion of fees. The returns were....unspectacular.
Well the BBC are in big trouble if a former controller they had on Sky is representative of Auntie's general thinking. No there is no real problem with the BBC, no new problem with young audiences, always been less young people watching and as they grow up they always start to watch the BBC....and so the future of the BBC is basically as it is today with small changes.
He obviously doesn't have any kids, because they never come home from school and stick on the tv (like I am sure most people on here used to). It is straight on to YouTube.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
Why are you reading books? Look at book reviews for the gist and (in academic rags at least) some informed counter-arguments. Plug your man's name or the title into Youtube's search box to see if he has made the main points in 20 to 60 minutes that you can watch at 1.25 speed (and after 10 mins, increase to 1.5 and so on). Study smart not hard.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
It's also worth reading (albeit you don't have time) Kevin Kelly's "The Inevitable". The short precis you need is - While "the future is here not evenly distributed" that distribution will occur over the next 20 years.
You can see it in IT, there is a big push on one level towards "No / Low Code" programming for mortals and on the other Black Box AI where tested models are applied to known business cases.
For what it worth, 20 years is a great futurologist period. If you’re right, you will be remembered as insightful. But if you’re wrong, in 20 years time, nobody will remember to point that you were wrong. 5 years would be significantly ballsier.
Why are we repatriating them? Surely the only sane options are to either place them in a camp for 3 weeks or leave them there.
Sky are going really big on this, Kay Burley just going nuts about it....despite her interviewing an independent expert who is a professor working on a vaccine, explained that the government response is actually appropriate / proportionate and that all people will have been screened before they get to the UK and are very low risk.
Kay Burley is, or at least gives an Oscar winning impression of being, simply very, very stupid and seems unable to process anything other than A to B straight lines.
Its the way this academic explained several times quite carefully why he thought the UK government response was proportionate given the current situation, but if it worsens the response will change...he leaves and then she immediately turns to a correspondent and repeats "ARRRHHHHHHH the government are telling people to self quanterine, outrage".
I assume Farage will be launching his new party in the next few days. It's apparently going to be called Reform.
Have there been any PB articles on the effect of The Brexit Party on the 2019 GE? As the early results were coming in, I noticed the decrease in the Labour vote was almost exactly the Brexit Party score in some Northern seats, with the Tories standing still
I've just finished my running totals spreadsheet for the election if anyone's interested in taking a look at it.
Well the BBC are in big trouble if a former controller they had on Sky is representative of Auntie's general thinking. No there is no real problem with the BBC, no new problem with young audiences, always been less young people watching and as they grow up they always start to watch the BBC....and so the future of the BBC is basically as it is today with small changes.
He obviously doesn't have any kids, because they never come home from school and stick on the tv (like I am sure most people on here used to). It is straight on to YouTube.
The only TV my 18 year old children watch is Youtube, Netflix and "The Show that Goes Wrong". The latter is a BBC show but they only watch it because of the theatre shows.
Well the BBC are in big trouble if a former controller they had on Sky is representative of Auntie's general thinking. No there is no real problem with the BBC, no new problem with young audiences, always been less young people watching and as they grow up they always start to watch the BBC....and so the future of the BBC is basically as it is today with small changes.
He obviously doesn't have any kids, because they never come home from school and stick on the tv (like I am sure most people on here used to). It is straight on to YouTube.
What difference does it make if people watch the BBC or not? Surely the bigger issue is that people just don't bother to get a TV licence. As long as there are enough law abiding citizens who want to watch live broadcast television, what does the BBC have to worry about?
I assume Farage will be launching his new party in the next few days. It's apparently going to be called Reform.
Have there been any PB articles on the effect of The Brexit Party on the 2019 GE? As the early results were coming in, I noticed the decrease in the Labour vote was almost exactly the Brexit Party score in some Northern seats, with the Tories standing still
I've just finished my running totals spreadsheet for the election if anyone's interested in taking a look at it.
Andy, we are always interested in your spreadsheets!
Mr. Matt, that reminds me of when Libya started rebelling against Gadaffi. Sky wet the bed blaming the Coalition Government for not immediately evacuating people who worked in the desert, in a country that had been simmering for weeks with similar insurgencies in Tunisia to the west and Egypt to the east.
Mr. Eek, can't recall the last BBC programme, other than the news, I watched regularly. Better quality and more interesting stuff from the likes of Modern History TV on Youtube.
What is it with the Guardian's banging on about the demise of the Victoria Derbyshire show? It was watched by the square root of bugger all people and always struck me as a tabloid-esque approach to programming.
Well the BBC are in big trouble if a former controller they had on Sky is representative of Auntie's general thinking. No there is no real problem with the BBC, no new problem with young audiences, always been less young people watching and as they grow up they always start to watch the BBC....and so the future of the BBC is basically as it is today with small changes.
He obviously doesn't have any kids, because they never come home from school and stick on the tv (like I am sure most people on here used to). It is straight on to YouTube.
The BBC like the Tory Party and the Church of England has its strongest audience and support from pensioners and less so from younger people but people also age
I assume Farage will be launching his new party in the next few days. It's apparently going to be called Reform.
Have there been any PB articles on the effect of The Brexit Party on the 2019 GE? As the early results were coming in, I noticed the decrease in the Labour vote was almost exactly the Brexit Party score in some Northern seats, with the Tories standing still
I've just finished my running totals spreadsheet for the election if anyone's interested in taking a look at it.
Andy, we are always interested in your spreadsheets!
What is it with the Guardian's banging on about the demise of the Victoria Derbyshire show? It was watched by the square root of bugger all people and always struck me as a tabloid-esque approach to programming.
Mr. Matt, that reminds me of when Libya started rebelling against Gadaffi. Sky wet the bed blaming the Coalition Government for not immediately evacuating people who worked in the desert, in a country that had been simmering for weeks with similar insurgencies in Tunisia to the west and Egypt to the east.
Mr. Eek, can't recall the last BBC programme, other than the news, I watched regularly. Better quality and more interesting stuff from the likes of Modern History TV on Youtube.
Its the way Sky never apologised or showed as real humbleness over just how wrong they were, after it became clear that Hague had done a brilliant job organizing the response and the SAS had been in Libya before the media even knew there was an issue.
Sky still repeating this stuff about self quarantining outrage. Now I am no expert this and tend to think the government / civil servants are generally quite shit, but I am more likely to believe an international expert, who is working on a vaccine for this virus, than some journalist who more than likely did history of art as a degree.
Mr. Matt, that reminds me of when Libya started rebelling against Gadaffi. Sky wet the bed blaming the Coalition Government for not immediately evacuating people who worked in the desert, in a country that had been simmering for weeks with similar insurgencies in Tunisia to the west and Egypt to the east.
Mr. Eek, can't recall the last BBC programme, other than the news, I watched regularly. Better quality and more interesting stuff from the likes of Modern History TV on Youtube.
Its the way Sky never apologised or showed as real humbleness over just how wrong they were, after it became clear that Hague had done a brilliant job organizing the response and the SAS had been in Libya before the media even knew there was an issue.
I watched the "The incredible story of Marie Antoinette's watch with Nicholas Parsons" last night but that was because my go to channel for give me something to watch is BBC4 and I remember how much Nicholas Parsons (may he Rest In Peace) clearly enjoyed making it.
Off topic: I’m being asked to write a piece on the greatest challenge facing “professional service firms” as part of a job application. I’m tackling it by focusing on globalisation leading to greater competition and therefore downward pressure costs. This means clients are wanting greater value, so outcome based pricing rather than time-based etc. I’m also talking about those embracing technology like AI and algorithms are better able to compete bla bla.
Right approach or too obvious?
Try reading Richard Susskind. Globalisation hasn’t done what you think it has,
Thank you.
You can read any of his books from over the last 20 years. They say, broadly, the same thing. Managing Partners love him, but they are invariably drawn to his type of thinking.
I’ve bought ‘The Future of the Professions’ as an ebook. Deadline is Friday so this morning is going be an exercise in skim-reading.
It's also worth reading (albeit you don't have time) Kevin Kelly's "The Inevitable". The short precis you need is - While "the future is here not evenly distributed" that distribution will occur over the next 20 years.
You can see it in IT, there is a big push on one level towards "No / Low Code" programming for mortals and on the other Black Box AI where tested models are applied to known business cases.
For what it worth, 20 years is a great futurologist period. If you’re right, you will be remembered as insightful. But if you’re wrong, in 20 years time, nobody will remember to point that you were wrong. 5 years would be significantly ballsier.
It’s a snake oil salesman’s paradise.
And it will be 20 years before HS2 connects to the north...
I assume Farage will be launching his new party in the next few days. It's apparently going to be called Reform.
Have there been any PB articles on the effect of The Brexit Party on the 2019 GE? As the early results were coming in, I noticed the decrease in the Labour vote was almost exactly the Brexit Party score in some Northern seats, with the Tories standing still
I've just finished my running totals spreadsheet for the election if anyone's interested in taking a look at it.
The Tories would have lost 44 seats. Labour were second in 32, the LDs in 12, so that would give totals of Con 321, Lab 235, LD 23.
Ah OK, thanks very much. But just to make sure we are meaning the same thing.
So if we treat Lab/LD as ONE party and aggregate their GE 19 vote totals they would still only have won 258 seats? - i.e. 235 + 23
Is that correct?
I'll have to check whether they would have won any seats from parties other than the Tories. But yes they'd have collectively won an extra 44 seats from the Tories.
Edit: collectively they won more votes than the SNP in 3 seats won by that party: East Lothian, East Dunbartonshire, Kirkcaldy.
Why are we repatriating them? Surely the only sane options are to either place them in a camp for 3 weeks or leave them there.
Sky are going really big on this, Kay Burley just going nuts about it....despite her interviewing an independent expert who is a professor working on a vaccine, explained that the government response is actually appropriate / proportionate and that all people will have been screened before they get to the UK and are very low risk.
Kay Burley is, or at least gives an Oscar winning impression of being, simply very, very stupid and seems unable to process anything other than A to B straight lines.
Its the way this academic explained several times quite carefully why he thought the UK government response was proportionate given the current situation, but if it worsens the response will change...he leaves and then she immediately turns to a correspondent and repeats "ARRRHHHHHHH the government are telling people to self quanterine, outrage".
Are you new to Kay Burley? She’s not changed her schtick in two decades.
I’m sure that if Sky didn’t send a car to her house to collect her, she’d struggle to get herself to work in the morning without help.
Sky still repeating this stuff about self quarantining outrage. Now I am no expert this and tend to think the government / civil servants are generally quite shit, but I am more likely to believe an international expert, who is working on a vaccine for this virus, than some journalist who more than likely did history of art as a degree.
It is the Royal Family that does history of art. Journalists, like politicians, do PPE.
The interesting thing about this graph for me is the commitment to the Conservatives of its Remain supporters. In the end, Labour Leavers were more willing to break from their party than Conservative Remainers were.
Mr. Matt, that reminds me of when Libya started rebelling against Gadaffi. Sky wet the bed blaming the Coalition Government for not immediately evacuating people who worked in the desert, in a country that had been simmering for weeks with similar insurgencies in Tunisia to the west and Egypt to the east.
Mr. Eek, can't recall the last BBC programme, other than the news, I watched regularly. Better quality and more interesting stuff from the likes of Modern History TV on Youtube.
Its the way Sky never apologised or showed as real humbleness over just how wrong they were, after it became clear that Hague had done a brilliant job organizing the response and the SAS had been in Libya before the media even knew there was an issue.
Yep, Billy Hague got sent out to front the media as to why the repatriation plane hadn’t left the UK yet, when it was an EMERGENCY!!!
The reality being that the plane was waiting for several members of the Diplomatic Service (Hereford Branch) to get their kit together, and it wasn’t going to leave without them. A few days later, those ‘diplomats’ had built a runway in the middle of the desert 200 miles from Tripoli, and called in an RAF Hercules to evacuate several dozen Westerners working on an oil field out there.
The interesting thing about this graph for me is the commitment to the Conservatives of its Remain supporters. In the end, Labour Leavers were more willing to break from their party than Conservative Remainers were.
But as often as we kept telling Remainers this is how it would play out, they wouldn't buy it.
I'll have to check whether they would have won any seats from parties other than the Tories. But yes they'd have collectively won an extra 44 seats from the Tories.
Edit: collectively they won more votes than the SNP in 3 seats won by that party: East Lothian, East Dunbartonshire, Kirkcaldy.
The interesting thing about this graph for me is the commitment to the Conservatives of its Remain supporters. In the end, Labour Leavers were more willing to break from their party than Conservative Remainers were.
Due to Corbyn, with Starmer that may be less clear
I assume Farage will be launching his new party in the next few days. It's apparently going to be called Reform.
Have there been any PB articles on the effect of The Brexit Party on the 2019 GE? As the early results were coming in, I noticed the decrease in the Labour vote was almost exactly the Brexit Party score in some Northern seats, with the Tories standing still
That happened in some constituencies while in others there were varying proportions in the Con and BXP increases.
And, of course, in Con held seats the Labour fall often had a corresponding Con increase.
But there are diverse patterns as to what happened where.
I wonder if the local ground campaign was a major factor here - in some constituencies BXP were very active with little Conservative effort whereas in Conservative target seats it was very different.
This poll seems a bit off to me. How can 40% think it was right versus 47% who think it was wrong to leave the EU, if the proportion of leave and remain voters who back their original decision (83% and 85%)
Comments
Its rapid collapse would be almost inevitable.
It's a right nasty bastard is this one.
And even if opposition continues at least advocates would be making their case with a more informed public and not fighting a losing battle from the start.
Bad news for business class travel when people realise they don't REALLY have to traipse half way round the world for a two hour meeting.
It's fairly rational to question such a massive expenditure when northern cities will see no benefit for a full two decades - particularly in the context of the lack of investment in transport links in the Liverpool-Hull corridor, or if you prefer, the Manchester-Leeds-Sheffiedl triangle.
The small accountancy firms are being destroyed on the value added front by Freeagent and the other book-keeping SAAS packages as more and more functionality is added to their systems.
Now the issue isn't really the work the accountancy firms is losing - it's the fact it eats into the work Junior Accountants would be doing which means there is less work available to give to people you would previously be training up resulting in less options. The prime example would be you used to have 3 people preparing accounts, now you have one and few choices when you need / want to promote.
It's a numbers game and I'm starting to see it now in IT. There are certain skillsets where the junior people no longer exist to allow you to find people suitable for the next level up.
Https://twitter.com/JustinWelby/status/1222429236306358272?s=20
You can see it in IT, there is a big push on one level towards "No / Low Code" programming for mortals and on the other Black Box AI where tested models are applied to known business cases.
The funniest is the suggestion that the next generation of automated planes will be able to fly with only one pilot (with remote control and auto land capability were he to become incapacitated) - but with no thinking as to how they might deal with the decade of continuous training that it currently takes to get a pilot qualified as an airline Captain.
Law firms however have no shortage of trainee applicants...
He obviously doesn't have any kids, because they never come home from school and stick on the tv (like I am sure most people on here used to). It is straight on to YouTube.
It’s a snake oil salesman’s paradise.
https://twitter.com/ITVWales/status/1222409562034229248?s=20
You may recall Rebecca Long Bailey called for a full public inquiry and legal investigation into the Cwm Taf maternity services scandal.
Welsh Labour told her to shut up as they were busy covering it up. I expect this scandal to grow.
Mr. Eek, can't recall the last BBC programme, other than the news, I watched regularly. Better quality and more interesting stuff from the likes of Modern History TV on Youtube.
If you score Con vs combined Lab/LD on GE 19 votes, what are the respective FPTP seat totals?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jan/29/bbc-expected-to-announce-job-losses-in-overhaul-of-news-reporting
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit#gid=0
In celebration ?
So if we treat Lab/LD as ONE party and aggregate their GE 19 vote totals they would still only have won 258 seats? - i.e. 235 + 23
Is that correct?
Edit: collectively they won more votes than the SNP in 3 seats won by that party: East Lothian, East Dunbartonshire, Kirkcaldy.
I’m sure that if Sky didn’t send a car to her house to collect her, she’d struggle to get herself to work in the morning without help.
The reality being that the plane was waiting for several members of the Diplomatic Service (Hereford Branch) to get their kit together, and it wasn’t going to leave without them. A few days later, those ‘diplomats’ had built a runway in the middle of the desert 200 miles from Tripoli, and called in an RAF Hercules to evacuate several dozen Westerners working on an oil field out there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-36373874
And, of course, in Con held seats the Labour fall often had a corresponding Con increase.
But there are diverse patterns as to what happened where.
I wonder if the local ground campaign was a major factor here - in some constituencies BXP were very active with little Conservative effort whereas in Conservative target seats it was very different.