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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson: Main focus for LAB in North East is winning

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  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Surely you had to translate it from Romany, in true Daily Express style.

    You mean the modern languages teacher "Romany Blythe", who moved south to Brighton to protest the funeral of the great and late departed Margaret?

    I have been keeping a close eye on a certain PBer's travels and am calling in pupil assessments.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    What's not to like about this - about time too

    Open Europe ‏@OpenEurope

    Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt wants non-UK residents restricted to emergency medical care only - http://bit.ly/103D6E6
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    TGOHF said:

    Seriously - who actually wants to live in a council house - people want to own their own home.

    Labour just want more clients dependant on it - job provided by the government , house provided by the government - its not Macmillan - its Brezhnev...

    Two points:

    1. There's a huge waiting list of people who would like a council house in preference to renting one in the private rental market.

    2. If you build more council houses you can combine that with right-to-buy without running out of the council houses that you need to house the needy and desperate.

    Dare I mention that this might represent a "third-way" between the Thatcherite position of selling off all social housing, and the stuck-in-the-distant-past position of the Left who would have council houses for all?
    Seems a reasonable third way to me. I'd add that by no means everyone wants to own their home (except in the "it would be nice to have a valuable asset" sense). Some of us want to get on with life instead of worrying about the roof, the boiler, the garden, the wall cracks, etc etc. Renting from someone who knows what they're doing (and perhaps can even wire plugs...) can make sense.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • The Cumbria PCC should resign for this imo.
    Can there be by elections for PCC's?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Some interesting demographics in the Ashcroft Poll:

    Retired on state/private pension (total)

    Con: 14/14 (28)
    Lab: 10/9 (19)
    Lib Dem: 10/8 (19)
    UKIP: 17/28 (45)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    @Avery

    If we have sent you to Romania it's only fair that we get all the Cheeky Girls they have to offer in return. Think of it as your contribution to good Coalition relations.

    I tried, Neil, I really did.

    I explained I was both liberal and democratic.

    But Lembit got there first.

    I was told swagger was more appealing than left-right orientation.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Carlotta

    I dont understand - everyone over State Pension Age is entitled to a state pension so how are they making their distinction?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @OblitusSumMe

    Spot on.

    TGOHF has thrashed around trying to oppose housebuilding for years on here.

    His stock reasons being.

    1.Some immigrants may be involved in building them
    2.Some people may buy IKEA furniture which is imported.
    3.They will be small
    4.Nobody wants to rent.

    A Thatcherite who want's to deliberately clog up mobility of labour.

    Foaming at the mouth now tim ? The main problem with all this is that it is hugely inefficient for the govt to manage, build and own all this property - just like it is for them to run any other business.

    If the market is distorted now then housing benefit is the problem - freeze that off using the cap and let the market adjust.

    Still if you think East German style housing projects built by government for the masses is the answer then carry on.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Associated Press reporting suspects are Chechen separatists from Russia.

    Doesn't feel right unless this is an AQ Chechnya link up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "AP sources: Boston bomb suspects from Russia region near Chechnya, lived in US at least 1 year."

    https://twitter.com/AP
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    AndyJS said:

    Just announced that Harvard will be closed today.

    So the bombers have succeeded in closing down the world's number one university.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22213651

    every cloud has a silver lining
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    In news from Europe.....Hollande's satisfaction rating hits a new low:

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionwayHollandeunan.pdf

    BBC reporting Boston suspects originally from Chechnya
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    The Associated Press ‏@AP 5m
    BREAKING: AP sources: Boston bomb suspects from Russia region near Chechnya, lived in US at least 1 year. -SS

    Uh-oh...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Neil said:

    @Carlotta

    I dont understand - everyone over State Pension Age is entitled to a state pension so how are they making their distinction?

    To clarify 'state pension only' and 'with a private pension'.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749


    You could just have said "oops, that was stupid" and maintained some dignity. Instead you come out looking like even more of an idiot. How nice for you.

    You should be grateful, it's let you and your little friend have your sanctimonious bleats for the morning; I'd hope that'd be your ration for the day, but I fear I may be out of luck on that score. Since you seem to be a last word merchant, I'll let you have it.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    UKIP voters in the Ashcroft/Populus Poll

    15% of 2010 Tories
    4% of 2010 Labour
    2% of 2010 LD's

    But of course on PB we know that the UKIP surge is damaging the left.

    And the other 38% of UKIP's support?

    Of course on PB we know UKIP only hurts the Tories....no stay at home 2010 Labour voters there!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    @CarlottaVance

    In Eastleigh it was reported that UKIP were picking up the votes of people who hadn't bothered to vote before, or at least hadn't for a long time.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    EU Commissioner Olli Rehn confirms that Europe had no choice but to impose austerity as it was dictated by the markets:

    Rehn explained that once markets began denying access to financing for some Eurozone countries that there was simply no choice but to cut spending and reduce deficits.

    The euro area's budget deficit dropped to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 from the 4.2% the prior year and is expected to shrink further to 2.8% this year. However, the belt-tightening has increased unemployment and dampened growth, pushing the Eurozone into recession.

    “In the early phase of the crisis it was essential to restore the credibility of fiscal policy in Europe because that was fundamentally questioned by market forces. There was no choice. Decisive action was taken,” Rehn told Reuters.


    We should note that even though the UK is experiencing much better growth figures than the Eurozone, its deficit remains between 7% and 8% of GDP.

    Ed M and Ed B are currently filling in applications to extend their loan facilities to embark on a nationwide council house building spree. This is proving more difficult than first thought as apparently the sums don't add up. Ed B has suggested to Ed M that they move the decimal point one place to the left on the debt:GDP ratio and self-certify the application.

    Is this the beginning of sub-prime politics?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Of course on PB we know UKIP only hurts the Tories....

    Not only, Carlotta, mainly. I mean if we sat the party leaders down and told them that UKIP were going to poll 11% at the next GE which of them do you think would be most worried about that?

    (Of course none of them would be happier than Sam who would rake it in from his bets here!)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    tim said:

    @AndyJS

    Looks like a result for everyone on Twitter

    An actual Caucasian.

    and a good chance they could be muslims as well...everyones happy...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2013

    tim said:

    @RichardNabavi

    With the Conservative victory in 1951 Macmillan became Minister of Housing under Churchill, who entrusted Macmillan with fulfilling the latter's conference promise to build 300,000 houses per year. 'It is a gamble—it will make or mar your political career,' Churchill said, 'but every humble home will bless your name if you succeed.'[42] Macmillan achieved the target a year ahead of schedule.[

    So the peak of council house building in this country, very sensibly, was under Churchill and Macmillan.

    I can see Ed's speechwriters using that line can't you?

    The peak of housebuilding occurred after a war in which a large proportion of the housing stock was destroyed or damaged. A comparison between then and now is stupid.

    In addition, much of the non-damaged housing stock was seen as being not fit for purpose for a whole variety of reasons. Terraces that were partially destroyed, tenement blocks, or back-to-backs that were no longer seen as being fit for purpose.

    If Ed tries comparing the two he'll be shot down. The two situations, problems and requirements are very different.
    Worth noting that much council building was of poor quality tower blocks under the sixties labour govt. The houses built by macmillian were of pretty good quality.


    The big issue though is location. Where to build bearing in mind the majority of demand is in the south east? And how do we manage migration from deprived areas to these new towns where the jobs are? There is little point in building new council estates where there are few opportunities for work, which would just be the sink estates of the future.
  • Avery

    An important point about what Rehn says ('that this is demanded by the markets') utterly fails to point out that this is only true because they are trapped in a common currency. If you absolutely have to devalue and you can't achieve that the 'normal' way through currency devaluation then an internal devaluation through price / wage / GDP slashing is all that is left.

    The PIIGS are enduring agonies of austerity that would be hugely easier to manage if they had the freedom to devalue a free currency. They are being crushed on the wheel of the Euro. Spain has unsustainable debt dynamics for example. The latest IMF projection shows their debt / GDP NEVER reducing. A default is baked in. William Hague was dead right when he described the Euro for some countries as like being trapped in a burning house and having thrown away the key.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    If they are Chechen jihadi motivation has got to be front runner. Moreover these tragic events seem to me to demonstrate that the gap between violent islamism and outright nihilism is so narrow as to be almost non-existent.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Neil said:


    Of course on PB we know UKIP only hurts the Tories....

    Not only, Carlotta, mainly. I mean if we sat the party leaders down and told them that UKIP were going to poll 11% at the next GE which of them do you think would be most worried about that?

    (Of course none of them would be happier than Sam who would rake it in from his bets here!)
    I agree - but tim thinks denial is a river in Egypt and Labour's lost voters are immune to UKIP's charms....has he been banging on about his women meme today...?

  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Excellent twitpic.Ed Miliband is just being Ed,a young man from a comprehensive school eating some chips on the Tyne Ferry,in-between places to go.How many other young men and women have done the same?
    What a virtue there is in ordinariness.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    Neil said:


    Of course on PB we know UKIP only hurts the Tories....

    Not only, Carlotta, mainly. I mean if we sat the party leaders down and told them that UKIP were going to poll 11% at the next GE which of them do you think would be most worried about that?

    (Of course none of them would be happier than Sam who would rake it in from his bets here!)

    The ladbrokes price on 0-10% has come my way there... I think it was 1/5 under 10% and now it's 1/2.... Obviously I still am underwater but can see the surface now!!

    By the way , if the Boston bomber that is on the loose is Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, where does that leave poor missing person Sunil? If he is still alive, he can count himself lucky not to have been taken out

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    Ed Miliband is just being Ed,a young man from a comprehensive school eating some chips on the Tyne Ferry,in-between places to go.How many other young men and women have done the same?.

    Wearing a suit? Probably none.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Of course terrorists tend to be wealthier and better educated than the average person (contrary to what some believe), so if the bombers were studying at a college or university it wouldn't be surprising.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @AndyJS

    Looks like a result for everyone on Twitter

    An actual Caucasian.

    Chechnya is principally Islamic, tim.

    And there has been a long history of terrorist activities by Chechen separatists in Moscow: the Metro bombings, the Dubrovka theatre hostage taking; airport attacks and airline hijackings. And the Beslan school hostage taking and killing - a truly horrific incident - is linked although the separatists here were Ingush rather than Chechen.

    Of course much of this stemmed from the harsh military response of Russia to the Chechen independence campaign, but, even before the two recent wars, the dominance of the Chechens within the Russia mafia was well established.

    There has long been a fear that Chechen separatists would link up with Al Quaeda to project their terrorism onto the international stage. Chechen fighters already provide substantial support to the Afghan resistance to US-NATO forces and have been active elsewhere in the Middle East hotspots.

    The US has had an ambivalent attitude to Putin's warnings on the internationalisation of Chechen terrorism, being unable to distinguish between its geo-political support, for example, for Georgia and the threat posed by Islamic fundamentalist terrorism from within the Caucasus. The ambivalence of treating Chechnya as a victim of Russian imperialism at the same time as recognising it as a breeding ground for terrorism.

    The Boston incident is likely to lead to much closer co-operation between Washington and Moscow on global terrorism.

    The result will be a very difficult time for the actual Caucasians, the good as well as the bad.



  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Dan Hodges resumes normal service:

    "The problem is that time is not Labour’s friend. As every day passes, the economic credibility deficit widens. Similarly, if Labour waits till the emergence of the first slender green shoots of economic recovery, any change in stance will be seen as an admission it’s David Cameron and George Osborne who now hold the economic initiative."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100212904/labours-policy-vacuum-cannot-be-allowed-to-continue/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Ed Miliband is just being Ed,a young man from a comprehensive school eating some chips on the Tyne Ferry,in-between places to go.How many other young men and women have done the same?.

    Wearing a suit? Probably none.
    I expect a number have, on their way to interviews. Or court!

    Cheers to all in the pub tonight. late clinic for me.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Watch this and think how Sunil Tripathis family must have felt these last 12 hours or so

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t12tfTJ10bU&feature=youtube_gdata_player
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    @tim

    If the measles victim is 25yo how does that relate to Wakefields MMR panic from 10-15 years ago?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    tim thinks denial is a river in Egypt

    It just seems to me that tim is picking up on the ridiculous suggestions here (from some) that UKIP are principally a problem for the Lib Dems or Labour at the next GE. They're not, the better UKIP poll the more seats the Lib Dems and Labour win (albeit the impact is fairly marginal if we're talking about 3% or 4% of the vote, more significant the more they get).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    I'm beginning to ponder whether Labour have pretty much "peaked" in terms of their poll lead this Parliament and whether swingback is now underway?

    If so, the Ed's can expect to be in big, big trouble before the year is out?

    This graph will be one to keep an eye on over the next couple of months;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    For signs of a downwards movement in Labour's position. The Conservative line probably won't start moving up for a little while,
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JonathanD said:

    @tim

    If the measles victim is 25yo how does that relate to Wakefields MMR panic from 10-15 years ago?

    It might be that the "herd immunity" that the pre Wakefield period enjoyed has been now substantially compromised to the extent that non immunized individuals, through choice or medical condition, are at vastly greater risk.

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    @tim,

    Thanks but surely better to have the vacine yourself rather than rely on everyone else having it? Can you get the MMR vaccine as an adult or just as a child? ie should they be vaccinating aduts who haven't had the jab as well as children in Wales?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Patrick said:

    Avery

    An important point about what Rehn says ('that this is demanded by the markets') utterly fails to point out that this is only true because they are trapped in a common currency. If you absolutely have to devalue and you can't achieve that the 'normal' way through currency devaluation then an internal devaluation through price / wage / GDP slashing is all that is left.

    The PIIGS are enduring agonies of austerity that would be hugely easier to manage if they had the freedom to devalue a free currency. They are being crushed on the wheel of the Euro. Spain has unsustainable debt dynamics for example. The latest IMF projection shows their debt / GDP NEVER reducing. A default is baked in. William Hague was dead right when he described the Euro for some countries as like being trapped in a burning house and having thrown away the key.

    Yup, Patrick, the Eurozone is in deep doodle.

    The IMF are currently debating whether to remain in the Troika with the ECB and EU Commission, with strong opposition to its continued participation from the US. Part of this is the Republican vs Democrats debate on fiscal policy spilling over international waters but there is also a growing belief that the Euro cannot be sustained as currently constructed.

    I don't expect much change in policy before the German elections though, nor much pressure from outside Germany and the EU to help topple Merkel or the Euro this year.

    2014 will be interesting though. And Dave might just find he has been dealt very lucky cards.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    GIN1138 said:


    If so, the Ed's can expect to be in big, big trouble before the year is out?

    This is the party that installed Gordon Brown unopposed and refused to move against him. Ed is safe until the next GE.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @AndyJS

    Looks like a result for everyone on Twitter

    An actual Caucasian.

    Chechnya is principally Islamic, tim.

    And there has been a long history of terrorist activities by Chechen separatists in Moscow: the Metro bombings, the Dubrovka theatre hostage taking; airport attacks and airline hijackings. And the Beslan school hostage taking and killing - a truly horrific incident - is linked although the separatists here were Ingush rather than Chechen.

    Of course much of this stemmed from the harsh military response of Russia to the Chechen independence campaign, but, even before the two recent wars, the dominance of the Chechens within the Russia mafia was well established.

    There has long been a fear that Chechen separatists would link up with Al Quaeda to project their terrorism onto the international stage. Chechen fighters already provide substantial support to the Afghan resistance to US-NATO forces and have been active elsewhere in the Middle East hotspots.

    The US has had an ambivalent attitude to Putin's warnings on the internationalisation of Chechen terrorism, being unable to distinguish between its geo-political support, for example, for Georgia and the threat posed by Islamic fundamentalist terrorism from within the Caucasus. The ambivalence of treating Chechnya as a victim of Russian imperialism at the same time as recognising it as a breeding ground for terrorism.

    The Boston incident is likely to lead to much closer co-operation between Washington and Moscow on global terrorism.

    The result will be a very difficult time for the actual Caucasians, the good as well as the bad.



    Not sure if your post was an elaborate joke, but "Caucasian" in American usage doesn't mean someone from the Caucasus, just someone with a white skin.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Neil said:

    GIN1138 said:


    If so, the Ed's can expect to be in big, big trouble before the year is out?

    This is the party that installed Gordon Brown unopposed and refused to move against him. Ed is safe until the next GE.

    Perhaps, but even if Ed Miliband is safe, Ed Balls might not be and remember its much harder to remove a Prime Minister than a leader of the opposition.

    That said, its almost certain Ed Miliband will go through to the election, especially now his brother has thrown in the towel.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2013
    pbr2013 said:

    If they are Chechen jihadi motivation has got to be front runner. Moreover these tragic events seem to me to demonstrate that the gap between violent islamism and outright nihilism is so narrow as to be almost non-existent.

    On his facebook (clone) page Djohar Tsarnaev describes his world view as 'islam'.

    https://twitter.com/WelshToy/status/325208937190289408
  • hughphughp Posts: 11
    One should not be amused about such matters - but suspect brothers with forenames Tamerlane and Joker !
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    From tim's link
    "Originally from Chechnya, but living in the United States since five years, Tamerlan says: "I don't have a single American friend, I don't understand them.""
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Boston bombers were brothers. The dead brother's first name was Tamerlan or Tamburlaine, as we know it or, in Russian form, Timur.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    Sounds like this is one of the bombers.

    Wanted to box for the US.

    http://johanneshirn.photoshelter.com/gallery/-/G0000VQW7v6xWA7o/

    "Tamerlan says he loves the movie "Borat," even though some of the jokes are a bit too much. "

    Nice to know he has his limits.

    "wanted to box for the US"

    Nice try, not one of your best

    "will box for passport" undermines it a little
  • samsam Posts: 727
    JonathanD said:

    From tim's link
    "Originally from Chechnya, but living in the United States since five years, Tamerlan says: "I don't have a single American friend, I don't understand them.""

    Viva multiculturalism!
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @tim

    Lolz. Such waggishness. Any good Beslan jokes?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    hughp said:

    One should not be amused about such matters - but suspect brothers with forenames Tamerlane and Joker !

    There is a US Intelligence failure here. I suspect they were blind to infiltration from the former Soviet Union or at least had their hands tied by a lack of adequate intelligence sharing with Moscow.

    Of course the terrorists only need to get lucky once and Homeland Security needs to get it right every time, but I do feel a critical storm brewing here.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @NickPalmer.

    I'm casting pearls among swine Nick, pearls among swine.

    But Pork's still asleep, tim.

    I think he overdid the acorns last night.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    @GIN

    Lead has peaked. Now it will stay stable until 2014 when the economy should recover (even downgrading all estimations as usual) and swingback will seriously start. Labour won't win an overall majority in 2015.

    Andrea speaks for the nation.

    Huzzah .... for lefty, green, gay, young, male, Italian, hunky dinky dunky loving, political commentary !!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    "The first suspect in the Boston Marathon bombing, who was shot dead in a firefight with the police, is allegedly Tamerlan Tsarnaev, a brother of the suspect at large.

    He is said to be from Chechnya, who fled to the US as a refugee.

    Tamerlan fled Chechnya with his family because of the conflict in the early 90s, when he reportedly was about five years old. He is said to have lived for years in Kazakhstan before heading to the United States as a refugee.

    However, despite spending the most of his life in America, he claimed not have “a single American friend.”

    “I don't understand them," reads one of the captions to the set pictures of Tamerlan, which RT managed to find online."


    http://rt.com/news/chechnya-suspect-boston-bombing-110/
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Every speech Ed Miliband has given since becoming leader

    @SnoozeInBrief: @JohnRentoul "I will do such things, what they are, yet I know not: but they shall be the errors of the dearth."
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    glassfet said:

    Every speech Ed Miliband has given since becoming leader

    @SnoozeInBrief: @JohnRentoul "I will do such things, what they are, yet I know not: but they shall be the errors of the dearth."

    I thought Tony was King Liar.

  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Reports suggest that the police are now going door-to-door in the locked down West Boston suburbs. The horrifying implication is that White Hat has been able to go to ground holding a household hostage. Surely if he was still on the lam the 10,000 - 10,000! - cops in the dragnet would have nailed him by now? If, as reported, he has firearms and explosives this is not going to end well.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,719
    Why does this puzzle me? Apparently a winner on the lottery is going to be build a eco-friendly house with a 10 car garage!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @AndyJS

    Looks like a result for everyone on Twitter

    An actual Caucasian.

    Chechnya is principally Islamic, tim.

    And there has been a long history of terrorist activities by Chechen separatists in Moscow: the Metro bombings, the Dubrovka theatre hostage taking; airport attacks and airline hijackings. And the Beslan school hostage taking and killing - a truly horrific incident - is linked although the separatists here were Ingush rather than Chechen.

    Of course much of this stemmed from the harsh military response of Russia to the Chechen independence campaign, but, even before the two recent wars, the dominance of the Chechens within the Russia mafia was well established.

    There has long been a fear that Chechen separatists would link up with Al Quaeda to project their terrorism onto the international stage. Chechen fighters already provide substantial support to the Afghan resistance to US-NATO forces and have been active elsewhere in the Middle East hotspots.

    The US has had an ambivalent attitude to Putin's warnings on the internationalisation of Chechen terrorism, being unable to distinguish between its geo-political support, for example, for Georgia and the threat posed by Islamic fundamentalist terrorism from within the Caucasus. The ambivalence of treating Chechnya as a victim of Russian imperialism at the same time as recognising it as a breeding ground for terrorism.

    The Boston incident is likely to lead to much closer co-operation between Washington and Moscow on global terrorism.

    The result will be a very difficult time for the actual Caucasians, the good as well as the bad.



    Not sure if your post was an elaborate joke, but "Caucasian" in American usage doesn't mean someone from the Caucasus, just someone with a white skin.
    Nick, I was picking up on tim's good but tasteless joke (but then aren't all the best jokes tasteless?).
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @GIN

    Lead has peaked. Now it will stay stable until 2014 when the economy should recover (even downgrading all estimations as usual) and swingback will seriously start. Labour won't win an overall majority in 2015.

    I don't like make these statements as they always turn out as wrong!

    Mr Andrea, Your thesis might have been accurate in times past but for 2015 I think you are forgetting one thing - the rise of UKIP. Now, there are those who suggest that Conservatively minded voters who are now flirting with UKIP will return to the fold come the day of reckoning. They may be right, but I don't think so, at least not enough of them will. Cameron has worked extremely hard to piss off many of his "natural" supporters and his efforts have been successful. So successful that, unless he campaigns on an obviously suicidal manifesto, Miliband will get his majority because the Conservative vote will not reach much above 30%, especially in the key marginals.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @AveryLP

    "I thought Tony was King Liar."

    Wrong vowel - King Lear

    Tony left his kingdom to two siblings whose actions led to tragedy for all.
  • Lewis_DuckworthLewis_Duckworth Posts: 90
    edited April 2013
    Bomber suspect's family has been in US since 2002. Came from Krygystan, via Degastan, and Turkey. Two sisters. He gained a City of Cambridge $2500 scholarship in 2011. Any gratitude seems to have been trumped by "islamic beliefs".
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    According to latest info the Chechens brothers have been in the USA less than two years and not 5 years as tim proclaims.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    glassfet said:

    Every speech Ed Miliband has given since becoming leader

    @SnoozeInBrief: @JohnRentoul "I will do such things, what they are, yet I know not: but they shall be the errors of the dearth."

    And Ed Balls will be proposing an economic policy "of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    This is alleged to be the YouTube channel of the suspect still at large:

    http://www.youtube.com/user/muazseyfullah/videos?flow=grid&view=15

    It includes "likes" for videos featuring radical preacher Shaykh Feiz Mohammed:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feiz_Mohammad
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JackW said:

    @AveryLP

    "I thought Tony was King Liar."

    Wrong vowel - King Lear

    Tony left his kingdom to two siblings whose actions led to tragedy for all.

    And Blunkett is the Duke of Gloucester?

    Who is our Cordelia?

    p.s. Just trying to wrest the prize for most tasteless joke of the day off tim.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    @GIN

    Lead has peaked. Now it will stay stable until 2014 when the economy should recover (even downgrading all estimations as usual) and swingback will seriously start. Labour won't win an overall majority in 2015.

    I don't like make these statements as they always turn out as wrong!

    Mr Andrea, Your thesis might have been accurate in times past but for 2015 I think you are forgetting one thing - the rise of UKIP. Now, there are those who suggest that Conservatively minded voters who are now flirting with UKIP will return to the fold come the day of reckoning. They may be right, but I don't think so, at least not enough of them will. Cameron has worked extremely hard to piss off many of his "natural" supporters and his efforts have been successful. So successful that, unless he campaigns on an obviously suicidal manifesto, Miliband will get his majority because the Conservative vote will not reach much above 30%, especially in the key marginals.


    yes, this is an interesting point. Do you think UKIP will perform as strong in Con-Lab marginals as in safe Con areas (where voting UKIP isn't a danger)? Historically, UKIP have always been crap at targetting, so their support was spread pretty uniformly. So you may be right that they won't pick in particular areas compared to others.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Why does this puzzle me? Apparently a winner on the lottery is going to be build a eco-friendly house with a 10 car garage!

    So Prescott has won the lottery then ....

    We're all Thatcherites now - Loads-a Jags !!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Amazing: you get a chance to live in one of the best cities in the world instead of one of the most brutal war zones and this is how you show your gratitude.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: surprising stat from BBC F1 site: "Remarkably, Sauber's Nico Hulkenberg has led a race for the most laps out of anybody since the Brazilian Grand Prix at the end of last season."
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited April 2013
    OT - Who's going to DDs tonight? Looks like I may be able to make it, and my jsa might stretch to a half pint or two of ale...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP will hit Labour hardest in some seats: places like Durham for example, although that's partly because the Tory vote is already at a low level.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    @NickPalmer.

    I'm casting pearls among swine Nick, pearls among swine.

    As Dorothy Parker rejoined when someone stood back to let her go through a door saying "age before beauty"....."Pearls before swine..."
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    There is a US Intelligence failure here. I suspect they were blind to infiltration from the former Soviet Union

    Any evidence he had form?

    None at all at the moment.

    But the gruntwork of intelligence is monitoring all individuals, good and bad, from high risk sources.

    One suspects that, after today, there will be a much closer look at all immigrants to the US (and elsewhere), temporary or otherwise, from the Caucasus.

    Just speculation tim but not unreasoned.
  • AndyJS said:

    UKIP will hit Labour hardest in some seats: places like Durham for example, although that's partly because the Tory vote is already at a low level.

    This is quite likely. Some of the WWC would never vote Tory, as they're always been told the Tories are evil. However, if they see a party that stands up for them, and it isn't called Tory, then they may vote.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited April 2013
    glassfet said:

    Every speech Ed Miliband has given since becoming leader

    @SnoozeInBrief: @JohnRentoul "I will do such things, what they are, yet I know not: but they shall be the errors of the dearth."

    More like:

    Its great to be in - insert town name here - it has a great Labour council running it -into the ground - and its party members voted large numbers in the leadership election - for David...

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Do you think UKIP will perform as strong in Con-Lab marginals as in safe Con areas (where voting UKIP isn't a danger)?"

    I don't know, Mr. Andrea. I am thinking that the attraction to UKIP has little or nothing to do with that party's ground game, so I am not sure how much if any effect that their targeting efforts will have. If I am right that Cameron has pissed off sufficient people to a sufficient degree then they will abandon him regardless of whether the seat is a safe Conservative one or a marginal - providing always Labour isn't running on a 1983 style manifesto.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    AveryLP said:

    But the gruntwork of intelligence is monitoring all individuals, good and bad, from high risk sources.

    And, most notably, who exchange emails or telephone calls with people who exchange emails or telephone calls with individuals who appear to be of interest.

    Which is precisely why Theresa May is trying to get the Communications Data Bill on to the statute books, and why every other Western nation is doing something similar.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    UKIP carried Hartlepool in 2009 Euros. But they were 4th in County Durham. They outpolled Con in 2011 PCC elections there too (and I guess they could have beated the LibDems if they stood)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited April 2013
    Have any PBers had any leaflets from any parties about the local election - have only had a leaflet from the LDs, nothing from any of the others. Seems to be a very strange way to encourage voters, particularly when postal votes are taken into consideration.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Everyone in the Homeland Security Department ought to be given a test on Chechyna, with those failing it getting fired immediately.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    From BBC News:

    Old Holborn tweets: Essex Police investigate 'offensive' posts

    Police are investigating allegations against a man from Braintree in Essex of criminal communication through social media.

    They relate to "inappropriate and offensive" Twitter posts about the Boston bombing, the Hillsborough disaster and James Bulger's murder.

    An Essex police spokesman said the complaints were made on Thursday by a person living in Southport, Merseyside.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    There is a US Intelligence failure here. I suspect they were blind to infiltration from the former Soviet Union

    Any evidence he had form?

    None at all at the moment.

    But the gruntwork of intelligence is monitoring all individuals, good and bad, from high risk sources.

    One suspects that, after today, there will be a much closer look at all immigrants to the US (and elsewhere), temporary or otherwise, from the Caucasus.

    Just speculation tim but not unreasoned.
    You can't watch everybody, nor do you want to. America has high levels of immigration from all over the world, and 99.99% of these immigrants have no wish to harm their new country.

    What you can do is restrict access to the items needed to create bombs, and to other weapons. We've been doing this in this country for some time, with some notable successes (and sadly some failures).

    ISTR there was one plot where the authorities actually swapped the fertiliser the would-be terrorists had purchased with a similar, inert chemical, allowing them to make bombs with no danger of an attack.

    Like it or not, this will have an effect on the gun control quagmire. And the timing could not be more embarrassing for the US Senate given their vote this week.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    The suspect in his own words:

    "Tamerlan says he doesn't drink or smoke anymore: "God said no alcohol." A muslim, he says: "There are no values anymore," and worries that "people can't control themselves.""

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/04/19/tamerlan_tsarnaev_dead_bombing_suspect_i_don_t_have_a_single_american_friend.html
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    dr_spyn said:

    Have any PBers had any leaflets from any parties about the local election - have only had a leaflet from the LDs, nothing from any of the others. Seems to be a very strange way to encourage voters.

    Wiltshire South- Two leaflets through the door, one from local Tory councillor regarding the local election directly – and one Lid Dem that merely alluded to the election without naming candidates.

    Still sometime to go before the election so expect a last minute rush, however, the area is notoriously ‘sedate’ when it comes to bumf, period.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Which is precisely why Theresa May is trying to get the Communications Data Bill on to the statute books, and why every other Western nation is doing something similar."

    Tish and pish, Mr. Nabavi. If the Communications Data Bill was just about terrorism and serious crime it would pass without a problem. However, it ain't and so it won't. The easiest way for HMG to get it through would be to restrict its provisions to the Security Service and the police agencies (i.e. Old Bill plus whatever is to replace SOCA) and to require a warrant from a magistrate for each access request.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2013
    Just read this Daily Mail headline and was intrigued:

    UKIP contesting more county council seats than the Lib Dems as new poll puts Farage's anti-EU party on DOUBLE Clegg's support
    UKIP fighting 1,486 county council seats on May 2 to Lib Dems' 1,443
    Nigel Farage confident of pushing Nick Clegg into 4th in the popular vote
    New AngusReid poll puts UKIP on 16% with Lib Dems on 8%
    Ed Miliband must live up to One Nation slogan with wins in the south
    Tories braced for heavy losses, wiping out huge gains made against Gordon Brown when seats were last contested in 2009

    I thought that Ukip was putting up over 1700 candidates and so were the L/dems. Are seats not candidates and vice versa?


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2310978/UKIP-fight-shire-councils-Lib-Dems-new-poll-puts-Farages-anti-EU-party-DOUBLE-Cleggs-support.html#ixzz2QugVHN4A
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013

    and to require a warrant from a magistrate for each access request.

    That phrase shows that you don't have a clue how this stuff works. The whole point is that you have to sift through absolutely vast amounts of data looking for correlations. 99.9% of the data you are looking at relates to people who are completely innocent and not suspected of anything. You're trying to find the links between the tiny number who, although they probably aren't terrorists themselves, might have shadowy links to terrorists, possibly without even knowing it. This is all done by computers sifting through hundreds of millions of records. The idea that you could get a warrant for each individual person is absolutely laughable.

    I have explained this many times before.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    and to require a warrant from a magistrate for each access request.

    That phrase shows that you don't have a clue how this stuff works. The whole point is that you have to sift through absolutely vast amounts of data looking for correlations. 99.9% of the data you are looking at relates to people who are completely innocent and not suspected of anything. You're trying to find the links between the tiny number who, although they probably aren't terrorists themselves, might have shadowy links to terrorists, possibly without even knowing it. This is all done by computers sifting through hundreds of millions of records. The idea that you could get a warrant for each individual person is absolutely laughable.

    I have explained this many times before.
    It's all about patterns in the matrix, man.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    There is a US Intelligence failure here. I suspect they were blind to infiltration from the former Soviet Union

    Any evidence he had form?

    None at all at the moment.

    But the gruntwork of intelligence is monitoring all individuals, good and bad, from high risk sources.

    One suspects that, after today, there will be a much closer look at all immigrants to the US (and elsewhere), temporary or otherwise, from the Caucasus.

    Just speculation tim but not unreasoned.
    You can't watch everybody, nor do you want to. America has high levels of immigration from all over the world, and 99.99% of these immigrants have no wish to harm their new country.

    What you can do is restrict access to the items needed to create bombs, and to other weapons. We've been doing this in this country for some time, with some notable successes (and sadly some failures).

    ISTR there was one plot where the authorities actually swapped the fertiliser the would-be terrorists had purchased with a similar, inert chemical, allowing them to make bombs with no danger of an attack.

    Like it or not, this will have an effect on the gun control quagmire. And the timing could not be more embarrassing for the US Senate given their vote this week.
    Josias, I fear Boston will have very little impact on US gun control. I think even Obama will stop short of linking Newtown and Boston.

    I agree that the vast majority of immigrants do not pose a risk to their adopting country, but there are high risk sources of immigration and general behaviour patterns which rightfully raise alarms.

    The quotations from the social media pages of the suspects quoted on pb today are clear pointers to risk.

    The problem the security forces face is not so much identifying high risk immigrants as determining which of a sizeable number of possible and identified risks warrant the allocation of additional surveillance resources. This was the case in 7/7 for example and I guess may be the case here.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    @SeatT

    Chechen history is unbelievably tragic. From Stalin's deportation of the entire population to the modern depradities. No wonder social pathologies developed and because they are muslims one form they take is a particularly nasty form of jihadism. If, as a group, they ever do turn their attention to the West, we should be worried. They are disciplined, technically competent and, not to put too fine a point on it, white, as tim so amusingly pointed out.


    What will be interesting to see about this pair though is whether or not they are acting independantly or else connected to some sort of network. If the latter, we there are many causes for concern.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    and to require a warrant from a magistrate for each access request.

    That phrase shows that you don't have a clue how this stuff works. The whole point is that you have to sift through absolutely vast amounts of data looking for correlations. 99.9% of the data you are looking at relates to people who are completely innocent and not suspected of anything. You're trying to find the links between the tiny number who, although they probably aren't terrorists themselves, might have shadowy links to terrorists, possibly without even knowing it. This is all done by computers sifting through hundreds of millions of records. The idea that you could get a warrant for each individual person is absolutely laughable.

    I have explained this many times before.
    Actually, Mr. Nabavi, I have a very good idea how information is turned into intelligence. There is always a starting point, a name or a number, and from that you build out. So actually getting a warrant is a perfectly sensible safeguard.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    A rather strange tweet from Rupert Murdoch:

    Why does British establishment protect famous alleged BBC paedophiles while demonising popular journalists. Toffs for toffs, hell to public

    His tweets have been getting madder by the month, Carlotta.

    Time for weekly visits by Conor Burns methinks.
This discussion has been closed.