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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peter’s Modest Proposal
I dug out the modest proposal title partially because I wanted to declare this article as being officially semi-satirical, but mostly because it’s advocating a form of cannibalism. Politics is a vicious business at the best of times but there’s always room for a little more ruthlessness. So, this is a thought-experiment in some organised political brutality.
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https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/02/01/iowa-poll-pulled-after-presidential-candidate-pete-buttigieg-name-omitted-during-call/4638527002/
I guess Mr Eagles was today’s photo editor, that pic always brings a smile. How Corbyn agreed to do it I’ll never know.
I'm not even sure this bit is true given that usually the incumbent wins; the chap who has not faced a primary beats the winner of the other party's. Momentum is overrated
In the meantime, any news story that highlights the need to hire good IT people is fine by me
And Stirling should have been shown a straight red card yesterday for that tackle.
VAR was meant to be for "clear and obvious errors" but then they try to get the decision right to the millimetre with no margin of error, its absurd. For a DRS LBW review the decision has to be clear and obvious because it has to be beyond the margin of error. Ball clipping leg stump? Stick with the on-field umpire's decision.
VAR should introduce a margin of error where the on-field referees decision stands for it, I'd suggest the width of a football. If the offside decision is more than the width of a football off then overturn the decision.
The other difference between DRS and VAR is that when the ball tracking comes up with DRS the 'traffic light' of the decisions appears instantly with the ball tracking. That's not happening with the offside decisions, instead they're faffing about for ages moving the lines and the frames which makes it seem much less clinical
And don’t forget this is literally (and rightly) the gold standard pollster.
For example:
https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1224001517109145600
FWIW, I think it reasonably likely that this will become a worldwide epidemic.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/
It’s impossible to watch them without wondering, “What would we do? How would my government respond if this virus spread across my country?”
For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion. If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it is...
Mr. B, it wouldn't be surprising if that happened, unfortunately.
Even if it becomes embedded, seasonality may give us some breathing space - if global spread stalls because of the end of the season, we could be looking at next winter being key. Arresting the spread by a few weeks with good public health measures could make a big difference to the outcome.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/1/31/21115109/coronavirus-outbreak-end-sars-comparison
It is already mass produced, it is already sold on the High St but without regulations. Prohibition has failed so lets make sure it is regulated like alcohol and try and stamp it out while ensuring its only sold legally like tobacco.
Our civil servants come in for a lot of criticism. They shouldn’t for this.
It containment fails in the UK it will be because of mixed performance at local government level, people disobeying the rules or because it’s uncontainable. Not because of HMG.
And the risks of these things should be known about, understood and relayed to the non-IT people involved in the work. Really important work (like this particular survey) should be monitored-to-f*** in real time, with supervisors watching screen recordings and listening to phone recordings. The fact that this clearly didn’t happen is a failure of management.
Another day when I think to myself “I’m happy that I’m not their IT director”.
I’m currently trying to persuade a software company to replace the high-end devices used by their QA team with $300 laptops and $100 phones. Because in the real world, that’s what people who aren’t software developers are using. Yes, it makes the software really slow, and low screen resolutions make things render funny - and that’s how the actual customers in the real world see it!!
I still find it bizarre though just how few cases Europe has had . Given we’re now into the timeframe where the incubation period has passed and you’d expect a big surge in cases.
That hasn’t happened and I hope it stays that way !
(Unless you're TSE, of course.)
Meanwhile, another Iowa poll showing Sanders well clear:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html
https://www.statnews.com/2018/01/11/vaccines-drug-makers/
Every few years an alarming disease launches a furious, out-of-the-blue attack on people, triggering a high-level emergency response. SARS. The H1N1 flu pandemic. West Nile and Zika. The nightmarish West African Ebola epidemic.
In nearly each case, major vaccine producers have risen to the challenge, setting aside their day-to-day profit-making activities to try to meet a pressing societal need. With each successive crisis, they have done so despite mounting concerns that the threat will dissipate and with it the demand for the vaccine they are racing to develop.
Now, manufacturers are expressing concern about their ability to afford these costly disruptions to their profit-seeking operations. As a result, when the bat-signal next flares against the night sky, there may not be anyone to respond....
(But generally, yes - though the rights may be waived.)
In both cases it really didn't have much impact except on screen size as most computers are nowadays fast enough for anything you want to do unless it's multiple things at the same time.
https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1224171718274625536?s=20
(Only joking, good to see the industry step up for things like this).
But I'd still say this is a user-interface issue, rather than IT. I make that distinction because in too many (most?) companies, there are no HCI experts, and QA has probably also been sacrificed because, hey, we don't need them now we have Devops and Agile and A/B testing in the Cloud. (Not that I'm bitter about wasting thousands of pounds on a Masters HCI course.)
As people have already suggested, a marker for the end of script might have caught the issue, or even a numbered list introduced by, "for these 10 candidates", or better use of horizontal space, or flashing up candidates one at a time, or, well, you get the picture. (We also need to imagine the caller did realise Mayor Pete was missing but assumed that was intended as part of the process to poll transfer votes, or some such.)
The UK has run down its vaccine manufacturing capacity because as suggested yesterday manufacturing is a poor way to make money. So I can guarantee the vaccine will not come from the UK. Still we can sell the Chinese more life assurance possibly to help.
I wonder if Pompeo has ever asked him to point out Ukraine on a map ... ?
(The common cold is a coronavirus, btw.)
It is a pile-up that includes hundreds of hapless pension holders, together with unsuspecting Norton customers, staff and even government ministers, who repeatedly endorsed Norton as millions of pounds in taxpayer support flowed into the firm.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/30/taken-for-a-ride-how-norton-motorcycles-collapsed-amid-acrimony-and-scandal
It always seems easier for dubious people to get government money than for those who 'play by the rules':
Further questions are sure to be asked about how Norton reached this point, and how millions of pounds of taxpayer money was staked on the firm.
In July 2015, the then chancellor, George Osborne, said his government’s long-term economic plan was “all about backing successful British brands like Norton”, as he visited the firm’s Leicestershire factory to announce a £4m government grant to Norton and 11 of its supply chain partners.
Four years earlier, the business secretary at the time, Vince Cable, announced a £625,000 government-backed loan by Santander to Norton and said he hoped “that many more companies are inspired by what Norton is going to achieve through this funding”.
Even if an effective vaccine is developed, scaling up for bulk production is a extremely expensive process, and one they are far less likely than hitherto to do off their own bat.
No thanks.
Pledged delegates are allocated in a proportional manner based on the vote share received by each candidate. This is at both the statewide and congressional district level.
There is a 15% minimum threshold to receive any delegates. Those not receiving the minimum are excluded, with the delegate pool divided proportionately among those candidates receiving 15% or more...
Though note that delegates are allocated on the basis of two congressional districts, and also statewide, so there are effective three separate calculations, I think ?
Did (very) vaguely think about buying a second hand one up here but they seemed to be wanting more than the list price of a new one. I guess that comes under the looking for idiots willing to pump money category.
What could go wrong?
No country signs a trade deal without legally binding provisions . To suggest the EU should agree to something because the UK says it will adhere to certain things without that specifically written into a Treaty is even by this governments standards delusional.
And the level playing field is also there to protect UK firms . Those provisions will also be there in any deal with the USA .
Now the Tories are peddling so called Australia as a means to repackage a no deal on trade and dupe the public into thinking it’s all fine !
Australia has a higher GDP per capita than the UK does.
Norton sounds like a screwup, governments shouldn't be putting money into (or standing behind loans to) failing companies, without good reason related to the output the company provides.
https://twitter.com/JohnJCrace/status/1224249439889625088?s=20
So, although I don`t think Butler will win, I`ve been nibbling at the approx 70/1 odds with BF, planning to trade out (or back Raynor) later.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50350281
The Welsh Government had been enthusiastic about the Afan Valley project, with the Economy Minister, Ken Skates, and Huw Irranca-Davies AM appearing in a publicity video with Gavin. Woodhouse was awarded a £500,000 grant for one of his hotels, the Caer Rhun in the Conwy valley.
They have given 19 million pounds of money and support to ... err ... Aston-Martin, which looks like another Norton Motorbikes story in the making. Aston-Martin is teetering on bankruptcy, and its share price has plummeted from 17 pounds in 2018 to 4.70 now.
I could go on, but it is too depressing for Wales.
Basically, if you a crook or a shyster or mobster in England, I would recommend just asking the Welsh Government for money.
Those who run Wales are -- and this is the most generous interpretation -- too stupid to recognise a crook in plain sight, but they give them public assets, or they throw money at them.
You need to dress up your crooked scheme as ‘investment’, which allows the Welsh Government to crow about jobs created . . . and this deception encourages Labour to anticipate being re-elected as a reward for these ‘successes’.
Scoundrels, shysters, Ponzi schemers, crooks, gangsters, mafiosi, criminals ... just write to Mark Drakeford at National Assembly for Wales, Cardiff Bay, Cardiff, CF99 1NA.
And remember to mention bringing "much needed jobs and investment" in your fraud.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47004388
....
I still loathe 'pre-prepared'.
What other kind of ****ing prepared is there?! Post-prepared, when you prepare for something that's already happened? The prefix is already in the damned word!
Bloody hell. The worst tautology in the world.
Mind you, "I could care less" sounds even more stupid. I thought it was a bad translation when I first encountered it in Shadow Hearts: Covenant.
The failure of prohibition means the dangers of cannabis aren't taken seriously and much worse it is unregulated and without any quality control. Criminal drug dealers don't check for ID to ensure that young people are old enough to be able to take the product.
OTOH by being within the auspices of the law for alcohol and tobacco we know the strength of these products and can tax, regulate and educate them. We can also eliminate drug dealers (since there's no mass market for them) and ensure that well regulated suppliers are forced to check for ID etc
One little known fact is that post-legalisation of cannabis where it has been done the rate of underage smoking of cannabis has gone DOWN and not up.
The government are right to reject this outright, there shouldn't be any room for misunderstanding here that the UK would ever accept a "self-correcting" amendment to a trade deal that is only amendable by the EU.
The country has a year of breathing room to get ready for tariffs and customs checks, I expect the government will announce serious funding in the budget to help businesses prepare for it.
That can burn through the cash rather quickly, even if you're a billionaire.
We won't be signing up to anything that Canada and Japan didn't agree to, and certainly not future alignment with new EU law.
Then, finally Lee Walters AM utters the truth
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48757245
Lee Walters said "Nobody knows what they're doing on the economy. Everybody is making it up as we go along - and let's just be honest about that. We've thrown all the orthodox tools we can think of at growing the economy in the conventional way, and we've achieved static GDP over 20 years."
I fear for Lee Walters' future in Welsh Labour with such a clear vision!
Barnier also demanding access to fishing. Why should other areas be tied to fishing? Its just because that's our natural resource they want to strip - do we get access to their natural resources?
We may pay a price from not having a deal but gain "sovereignty" advantages that make it a price worth paying arguably - they gain nothing, its pure price and no benefits for them.
Overlarge concentrations of power are undesirable from a point of view of both liberty and economic efficiency.
Even if FG are part of the next Govt, it won't be Leo.
I also love the way the Stroll-led consortium went about taking over Force India - they paid almost the amount that the Indians (Vijay Mallya and Subrata Roy) were asking for the team, but in such a way that said Indians didn't see a penny of it!
Whatever happens in Wales, Labour need to lose power before there is any hope for modest improvement.
"When it comes to the min wage, maternity leave, environmental protections, our standards are higher"
"I'm sure the EU will want to adhere to their commitment to a Canada style FTA"
"We expect to be a leader in environmental standards and workers rights"
@DominicRaab on #Ridge
The Truth
The UK is one of the worst places in Europe for paid parental leave and finding affordable quality childcare, the UN children’s charity has said.
UNICEF researchers analysed countries according to the length of maternity and paternity leave, as well as the proportion of children between zero and six years old in childcare.
The only European countries lower than the UK were Cyprus, Switzerland and Greece. Ireland was one place above the UK.
The top ranked countries were Sweden, Norway and Iceland.
https://www.scotsman.com/read-this/this-is-how-maternity-and-paternity-leaves-around-europe-compare/
In this example, it would be where Liverpool left the PFA but was allowed to continue to compete in the Premier League, and then the PFA introduced a wage cap without any requirement on Liverpool to do so.
You can ask how or when such a situation would arise in the real world, but it definitely exists. It's not a contradiction in terms.
To correct your analogy it would be like Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea unilaterally deciding they want a wage cap and expect to enforce that on Liverpool but Liverpool decides not to do so.
That should be pretty easy ! if you’re standards are much higher already it’s unlikely you’re going to get that much lower unless of course the government are lying !
The UK will be a competitor out of the EU and because of geography that’s why level playing field provisions are even more important than say in the Canada deal which still has some of those .