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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review (Final Part

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review (Final Part)

This is it. We’re at the point of no return, there’s no going back now. We’re had numerous articles, interviews, political shows, polls and retirements. The only stage left now is the official results!

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    An astonishing set of late results for Sanders in Iowa. He's now certain to win the popular vote, and has a slight chance of winning the State Delegates Equivalents number. (There are six delegates still to be assigned, and he's only three behind Buttigieg. It's entirely possible that he gets four to Buttigieg's two. And it's theoretically possible that he gets four, Buttigieg gets one, and Warren one.)

    What a nail biter!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I was astonished to read a comment in the previous thread which said "One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed" in reference to Kirk Douglas. No he wasn't, and no he won't. Obvious reasons for both.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    JohnLoony said:

    I was astonished to read a comment in the previous thread which said "One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed" in reference to Kirk Douglas. No he wasn't, and no he won't. Obvious reasons for both.

    I can think of many films where he was much missed, say, Paths of Glory where he stood on top of a parapet blowing a whistle and amazingly never got hit.

    Anyone would think the soldiers were paid to shoot at his supporting cast...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    JohnLoony said:

    I was astonished to read a comment in the previous thread which said "One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed" in reference to Kirk Douglas. No he wasn't, and no he won't. Obvious reasons for both.

    He'll be missed by those who have had him in their dead pool for the past 20 odd years.....
  • rcs1000 said:

    An astonishing set of late results for Sanders in Iowa. He's now certain to win the popular vote, and has a slight chance of winning the State Delegates Equivalents number. (There are six delegates still to be assigned, and he's only three behind Buttigieg. It's entirely possible that he gets four to Buttigieg's two. And it's theoretically possible that he gets four, Buttigieg gets one, and Warren one.)

    What a nail biter!

    1.4 Bernie; 2.5 Pete on Betfair.
  • Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.
  • rcs1000 said:

    An astonishing set of late results for Sanders in Iowa. He's now certain to win the popular vote, and has a slight chance of winning the State Delegates Equivalents number. (There are six delegates still to be assigned, and he's only three behind Buttigieg. It's entirely possible that he gets four to Buttigieg's two. And it's theoretically possible that he gets four, Buttigieg gets one, and Warren one.)

    What a nail biter!

    1.4 Bernie; 2.5 Pete on Betfair.
    Pete out to 4 (was a bit of 4.4) and Bernie 1.23. I need to go to work now and half-expect Amy to have won by the time I get there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Name-dropping by proxy: many years back my wife was working with Charlton Heston's son, Fraser. They ended up going for dinner with Chuck at one of the well-known Hollywood hangouts.

    As they were eatiing their starters, Kirk Douglas came through and was invited to join them. Places were set and, as she reported back to her incredulous mother,

    "I've just had dinner sat between Spartacus and Ben Hur...."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited February 2020
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    An astonishing set of late results for Sanders in Iowa. He's now certain to win the popular vote, and has a slight chance of winning the State Delegates Equivalents number. (There are six delegates still to be assigned, and he's only three behind Buttigieg. It's entirely possible that he gets four to Buttigieg's two. And it's theoretically possible that he gets four, Buttigieg gets one, and Warren one.)

    What a nail biter!

    At least it would have been a nail-biter if we were discussing it on Tuesday morning, and not Thursday morning!

    What an absolute clusterf..., the only winners are Mike Bloomberg and Donald Trump.
  • Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    It would be nice to see that "recovered" number start catching up with the "confirmed cases". 28,89 confirmed cases, just 1,219 recovered. Obviously it is going to lag, but for how long gives some idea of the strain it is going to put on health services - and the level of effective care they can offer.
  • The person who created this article is a legend.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    Thanks for the analysis, although I’m way too far away to have sufficient understanding to bet on Irish politics. What do you think happens in the scenario where SF get sufficient seats to block any other coalition - do FF and FG somehow work together to shut the Shinners out, or does one of them bite the bullet, so to speak?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Only the Democratic Party could make it look like Donald Trump was actually running the USA in an effective manner.

    Four More Years.....sigh.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Andy_JS said:
    Intriguingly, all the data from the satellite caucuses (i.e. old people in Florida and Arizona) was that they were unfriendly to Sanders. It therefore surprises me that people assume Sanders will gain from their inclusion and nab Iowa.

    A better opportunity for him, one would think, would be if there had been errors in reporting, such as we saw earlier today where Sanders votes had been attributed to Street.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    What malcy, no reference to the bollox from Scotland this morning?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Intriguingly, all the data from the satellite caucuses (i.e. old people in Florida and Arizona) was that they were unfriendly to Sanders. It therefore surprises me that people assume Sanders will gain from their inclusion and nab Iowa.

    A better opportunity for him, one would think, would be if there had been errors in reporting, such as we saw earlier today where Sanders votes had been attributed to Street.
    Is this bigger news than Trump's acquittal on the newtworks?
  • Thanks to GreenMachine for a very interesting election summary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited February 2020
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    If he’s got any sense, the only words he will say are ‘I resign.’

    But if he had any sense, he wouldn’t have done what he did.
  • Arise Lord Ken..... Well played Boris if so. Also pleasantly surprised if Lord spreadsheet too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    The story that won’t go away, Iowa Democrats and their crap app.

    Now Vice News has got hold of a copy of it, so that researchers (and nosey journalists) can take a look for themselves. Sadly the web server back end is now switched off and the counting is being done manually.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3b3g9/here-is-a-link-to-the-shadow-inc-app-that-blew-up-the-iowa-caucus
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Sandpit said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    Thanks for the analysis, although I’m way too far away to have sufficient understanding to bet on Irish politics. What do you think happens in the scenario where SF get sufficient seats to block any other coalition - do FF and FG somehow work together to shut the Shinners out, or does one of them bite the bullet, so to speak?
    FF + Labour + Greens probably works. FF have also committed to start preparations for a unification vote which makes them slightly more nicurious than FG. Realistically we are 2-3 elections away from ending the occupation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Arise Lord Ken..... Well played Boris if so. Also pleasantly surprised if Lord spreadsheet too.

    I wonder if Osborne has ever been offered a peerage? If so, does his continued commoner(!) status suggest he plans a comeback at some point?
  • Good morning, everyone.

    I don't watch much news nowadays, but how much coverage has this been getting? Suspect that Trump's still dominating foreign news.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    edited February 2020
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    “Im a-nonce-ing a cut in lollipop tax - but don’t tell your parents”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Good morning, everyone.

    I don't watch much news nowadays, but how much coverage has this been getting? Suspect that Trump's still dominating foreign news.

    It’s dominating the BBC to such an extent they don’t have time for anything Irish or Scottish.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    ydoethur said:

    Arise Lord Ken..... Well played Boris if so. Also pleasantly surprised if Lord spreadsheet too.

    I wonder if Osborne has ever been offered a peerage? If so, does his continued commoner(!) status suggest he plans a comeback at some point?
    It’s more likely to suggest that he doesn’t wish to declare his sources of income, which he would have to do as a Lord. See Blair, Anthony.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    Arise Lord Ken..... Well played Boris if so. Also pleasantly surprised if Lord spreadsheet too.

    Laura K on the Beebs website refer to 'lots' of appointments. Including Eurosceptics and Tory donors. Haven't we got enough in the Upper House already?
    I've no problem with rewarding people for public service, but keeping them on as legislators, frankly, make the country look somewhat ridiculous.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    TGOHF666 said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    “Im a-nonce-ing a cut in lollipop tax - but don’t tell your parents”
    He can stick it.

    Pause.

    I’ll get my coat.

    While I am doing that, let us consider this unfortunately all too prescient HIGNFY clip form about four years ago:

    https://youtu.be/Y3kqYyezeTY

    Have a good morning.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    'oh boy'?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    What malcy, no reference to the bollox from Scotland this morning?
    Just saw it , what a tool, off with his head immediately. Unbelievable that someone in that position is so stupid, how do these numpties ever get to these positions.
  • malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    Well said.....unlike some other Nats!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1225312942125613056?s=20
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959


    I've no problem with rewarding people for public service, but keeping them on as legislators, frankly, make the country look somewhat ridiculous.

    America says "Hold my beer...."
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    Well said.....unlike some other Nats!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1225312942125613056?s=20
    Just amazed they have not announced he is at least suspended already.
    An unfortunate clique in the upper echelons of SNP at present.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Sandpit said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    Thanks for the analysis, although I’m way too far away to have sufficient understanding to bet on Irish politics. What do you think happens in the scenario where SF get sufficient seats to block any other coalition - do FF and FG somehow work together to shut the Shinners out, or does one of them bite the bullet, so to speak?
    Armalite on SF bets.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    “Im a-nonce-ing a cut in lollipop tax - but don’t tell your parents”
    He can stick it.

    Pause.

    I’ll get my coat.

    While I am doing that, let us consider this unfortunately all too prescient HIGNFY clip form about four years ago:

    ttps://youtu.be/Y3kqYyezeTY

    Have a good morning.
    The expression on Hislop’s face there, definitely suggested he knew something that he couldn’t say.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    The person who created this article is a legend.

    Can’t argue with that.
  • malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    I'd give him an ounce of credit if he did face up to giving the budget speech, but yeah, he's gone.

    I imagine the wrist brace manufacturers will be seeing a surge in sales to compete with the face mask guys, particularly among the migrant yoon community.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Buttigieg back to favourite again with BF. He and Sanders were both odds-on a minute ago.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    edited February 2020
    Looking at the dynamics of these two and three member seats, it seems at face value to have been an major error of Sinn Fein that they considered themselves so weak that they should not field more than one candidate in any of them, given their current standing in the polls.

    Are there any reciprocal deals in place for sharing 2nd preferences with other parties also standing only one candidate?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    Well said.....unlike some other Nats!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1225312942125613056?s=20
    Just amazed they have not announced he is at least suspended already.
    An unfortunate clique in the upper echelons of SNP at present.
    Part of the problem is that the boy is 16 - so no crime committed? And, after all, doesn't the SNP support votes at 16 etc.?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    What malcy, no reference to the bollox from Scotland this morning?
    Just saw it , what a tool, off with his head immediately. Unbelievable that someone in that position is so stupid, how do these numpties ever get to these positions.
    Need to up the doseage of bromide in the Holyrood tea cart!
  • tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    Well said.....unlike some other Nats!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1225312942125613056?s=20
    Just amazed they have not announced he is at least suspended already.
    An unfortunate clique in the upper echelons of SNP at present.
    Part of the problem is that the boy is 16 - so no crime committed? And, after all, doesn't the SNP support votes at 16 etc.?
    I'm sure that will make it all OK and go away then (!)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited February 2020

    The person who created this article is a legend.

    It is a level of detail that is indeed impressive! It is embarrassing really how little our political class is interested compared with events in Iowa sports halls.

    Why is it that SF are Billy No Mates south of the border, yet in government on the north side?

    Is it just the threat to FF and FG of being squeezed out?

    What are the constitutional obstacles North and South to a unification poll?

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    Well said.....unlike some other Nats!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1225312942125613056?s=20
    Just amazed they have not announced he is at least suspended already.
    An unfortunate clique in the upper echelons of SNP at present.
    Part of the problem is that the boy is 16 - so no crime committed? And, after all, doesn't the SNP support votes at 16 etc.?
    I'm sure that will make it all OK and go away then (!)
    Well, obviously not. The SNP really need him to resign. If they sack him they'll be asked awkward questions about the age of consent.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    Well said.....unlike some other Nats!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1225312942125613056?s=20
    Just amazed they have not announced he is at least suspended already.
    An unfortunate clique in the upper echelons of SNP at present.
    Part of the problem is that the boy is 16 - so no crime committed? And, after all, doesn't the SNP support votes at 16 etc.?
    They sacked children's Minister last year for sending what I would have termed mild texts to a woman , similar age to himself.
    Hard to see this not being a hundred times worse even if not a crime.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    Well said.....unlike some other Nats!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1225312942125613056?s=20
    Just amazed they have not announced he is at least suspended already.
    An unfortunate clique in the upper echelons of SNP at present.
    Part of the problem is that the boy is 16 - so no crime committed? And, after all, doesn't the SNP support votes at 16 etc.?
    I'm sure that will make it all OK and go away then (!)
    Well, obviously not. The SNP really need him to resign. If they sack him they'll be asked awkward questions about the age of consent.
    Nothing awkward about age of consent, it is 16. Fact he is 40+ and chasing people nearly a third of his age, especially given his high profile position , is the issue.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great header, @GreenMachine. Good luck getting any comments on Ireland while the American fiasco unfolds.

    True, lol.
    @Thegreenmachine, great write up , just pity it is on so early and amid all the bollox from USA, deserves much better attention.
    Budget day in Scotland today I understand.

    What do you think the Finance Secretary is going to say? ;)
    Likely to be his last speech , given the revelations. If even a smidgen of what the SUN says is true he is finished. He should be gone this morning unless he can prove allegations are totally false.
    Well said.....unlike some other Nats!

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1225312942125613056?s=20
    Just amazed they have not announced he is at least suspended already.
    An unfortunate clique in the upper echelons of SNP at present.
    Part of the problem is that the boy is 16 - so no crime committed? And, after all, doesn't the SNP support votes at 16 etc.?
    They sacked children's Minister last year for sending what I would have termed mild texts to a woman , similar age to himself.
    Hard to see this not being a hundred times worse even if not a crime.
    Fair point - the age really shouldn't come into this - although I would argue it is an aggravating factor given the age difference - as it does look like harassment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    At least he fell on his sword or was forced to.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Don’t forget that malc supports Independence not the SNP. I’m sure he appreciates this story to remind himself of that. I think he’s much more comfortable dishing out abuse if all politicians on an equal handed basis!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Can anyone explain which bit of the article the headlined “alarm” is supposed to refer to?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/06/economists-warning-boris-johnson-election-pledge-output
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    They can bang on all the long day about another referendum, but the elephant in the Scottish living room is that the SNP are really shite at governing.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    alex_ said:

    Can anyone explain which bit of the article the headlined “alarm” is supposed to refer to?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/06/economists-warning-boris-johnson-election-pledge-output

    The "alarm" at The Guardian is the idea of two full Tory terms......
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Apparently I'm the first to point out that the article's been duplicated?

    Has anyone who's posted actually read it?
  • They can bang on all the long day about another referendum, but the elephant in the Scottish living room is that the SNP are really shite at governing.

    So the solution wll be for Scotland to go independent, then they won't be able to bang on about that anymore and Scotland will instead have to vote on who is good at governing.
  • They can bang on all the long day about another referendum, but the elephant in the Scottish living room is that the SNP are really shite at governing.

    How shite does that make the SCons/SLab/SLDs then?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    O/T

    What does the "7" in the web address of this site mean or indicate?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Endillion said:

    Apparently I'm the first to point out that the article's been duplicated?

    Has anyone who's posted actually read it?

    TBH, thought it was another vanilla malfunction! Mind, it’s worth reading twice.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Texts...tweets.... It seems that each social media a politician uses drastically reduces their political half-life.

    Last man standing will be the one who just writes letters.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    They can bang on all the long day about another referendum, but the elephant in the Scottish living room is that the SNP are really shite at governing.

    So the solution wll be for Scotland to go independent, then they won't be able to bang on about that anymore and Scotland will instead have to vote on who is good at governing.
    As long as the SNP agree to give up politcs after independence. There should be no political parties, have an independent Scotland ruled by independents.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    What does the "7" in the web address of this site mean or indicate?

    It’s just the way the server is configured, albeit slightly unusual to see nowadays.

    Likely to be a leftover from an old Wordpress load-balancing system, from the days when all the comments were in-house on the Wordpress page and poor Robert the admin had a nightmare keeping it running as the site became more popular.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I wonder about the coincidence in the timing of the Scotland story. Not of the “the press have timed this for maximum embarrassment” variety, but simply the probable heightened level of recognition among the general public that MacKay might have had in the lead up to the Finance statement. Making it more likely that the story would emerge.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    alex_ said:

    Can anyone explain which bit of the article the headlined “alarm” is supposed to refer to?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/06/economists-warning-boris-johnson-election-pledge-output

    The "alarm" at The Guardian is the idea of two full Tory terms......
    This is the first section of the article:

    It would take Boris Johnson two full terms as prime minister to fulfil his pledge to “level up” the British economy, according to one of the UK’s leading economic thinktanks.

    If there was genuine levelling up of the economy over a ten year period wouldn't that be a success on just about every metric imaginable?

    Who would actually stand against that as a policy, and for what reason?

    I would have thought it was pretty obvious that it isn't something that can be done sustainably in a couple of years. Quick fixes have a reputation for quick collapses.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    What does the "7" in the web address of this site mean or indicate?

    Between 6 and 8?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    They can bang on all the long day about another referendum, but the elephant in the Scottish living room is that the SNP are really shite at governing.

    So the solution wll be for Scotland to go independent, then they won't be able to bang on about that anymore and Scotland will instead have to vote on who is good at governing.
    As long as the SNP agree to give up politcs after independence. There should be no political parties, have an independent Scotland ruled by independents.....
    After independence, I would expect Scottish political parties to break up and then reform, probably along the lines of FF and FG.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    They can bang on all the long day about another referendum, but the elephant in the Scottish living room is that the SNP are really shite at governing.

    So the solution wll be for Scotland to go independent, then they won't be able to bang on about that anymore and Scotland will instead have to vote on who is good at governing.
    As long as the SNP agree to give up politcs after independence. There should be no political parties, have an independent Scotland ruled by independents.....
    Seriously...... well, sort of..... there's a case for National parties like the SNP to dissolve once their aim. has been achieved.
    It's the bit like the French Resistance; quite a lot were Communists, but by no means all, and there was, IIRC, somewhat of a 'disagreement' between the various wings after the Liberation.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited February 2020

    Endillion said:

    Apparently I'm the first to point out that the article's been duplicated?

    Has anyone who's posted actually read it?

    TBH, thought it was another vanilla malfunction! Mind, it’s worth reading twice.
    I am enjoying the concept of Alan Dillon being a "former football". Otherwise, I'm struggling to relate or have much context, but it's quite interesting regardless. Even the second time.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Stocky said:

    Buttigieg back to favourite again with BF. He and Sanders were both odds-on a minute ago.

    I'm +20 on both after that earlier punt on Buttigieg at 2/1.
    I've no idea how this one will end up and just hope the market doesn't get voided.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited February 2020

    Looking at the dynamics of these two and three member seats, it seems at face value to have been an major error of Sinn Fein that they considered themselves so weak that they should not field more than one candidate in any of them, given their current standing in the polls.

    Are there any reciprocal deals in place for sharing 2nd preferences with other parties also standing only one candidate?

    Yes, that is correct -- but Sinn Fein had poorish Euro elections in 2019.

    The real question is why did things change so quickly since the 2019 Euros, when Fine Gael were polling nearly double all their competitors.

    I have no insights into Irish politics, but it is clear that Leo took a winning position and changed it into a losing one.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Intriguingly, all the data from the satellite caucuses (i.e. old people in Florida and Arizona) was that they were unfriendly to Sanders. It therefore surprises me that people assume Sanders will gain from their inclusion and nab Iowa.

    A better opportunity for him, one would think, would be if there had been errors in reporting, such as we saw earlier today where Sanders votes had been attributed to Street.
    What data? The satellite caucus districts already reporting on nyt show big leads for Bernie.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Foxy said:

    They can bang on all the long day about another referendum, but the elephant in the Scottish living room is that the SNP are really shite at governing.

    So the solution wll be for Scotland to go independent, then they won't be able to bang on about that anymore and Scotland will instead have to vote on who is good at governing.
    As long as the SNP agree to give up politcs after independence. There should be no political parties, have an independent Scotland ruled by independents.....
    After independence, I would expect Scottish political parties to break up and then reform, probably along the lines of FF and FG.
    YTBH (again) that seems to be a major fault with Irish politics; that you vote according to the view your great-grandparents had of Michael Collins and Eamonn de Valera.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    philiph said:

    alex_ said:

    Can anyone explain which bit of the article the headlined “alarm” is supposed to refer to?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/06/economists-warning-boris-johnson-election-pledge-output

    The "alarm" at The Guardian is the idea of two full Tory terms......
    This is the first section of the article:

    It would take Boris Johnson two full terms as prime minister to fulfil his pledge to “level up” the British economy, according to one of the UK’s leading economic thinktanks.

    If there was genuine levelling up of the economy over a ten year period wouldn't that be a success on just about every metric imaginable?

    Who would actually stand against that as a policy, and for what reason?

    I would have thought it was pretty obvious that it isn't something that can be done sustainably in a couple of years. Quick fixes have a reputation for quick collapses.
    But...but...but...it's the TORIES doing it!

    Does. Not. Compute.......

    (There were no doubt some heads exploding when Boris pulled Sir David Attenborough out his magician's hat. Wait until he really runs with the green agenda. He's going to turn Extinction Rebellion into the Young Conservatives...)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    ydoethur said:

    JohnLoony said:

    I was astonished to read a comment in the previous thread which said "One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed" in reference to Kirk Douglas. No he wasn't, and no he won't. Obvious reasons for both.

    I can think of many films where he was much missed, say, Paths of Glory where he stood on top of a parapet blowing a whistle and amazingly never got hit.

    Anyone would think the soldiers were paid to shoot at his supporting cast...
    Lauren Bacall missed nothing - see where she's looking in Young Man with a Horn:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirk_Douglas#/media/File:Douglas_-_Bacall_-_Horn_1950.jpg
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    They can bang on all the long day about another referendum, but the elephant in the Scottish living room is that the SNP are really shite at governing.

    So the solution wll be for Scotland to go independent, then they won't be able to bang on about that anymore and Scotland will instead have to vote on who is good at governing.
    As long as the SNP agree to give up politcs after independence. There should be no political parties, have an independent Scotland ruled by independents.....
    After independence, I would expect Scottish political parties to break up and then reform, probably along the lines of FF and FG.
    YTBH (again) that seems to be a major fault with Irish politics; that you vote according to the view your great-grandparents had of Michael Collins and Eamonn de Valera.
    Not any more, it seems!

    But yes, post Sindy, the SNP will most likely split into a right and left wing faction, and the Unionist parties become much diminished.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    An interesting piece on Irish politics, but all the action is on America.

    As an outsider, the Democratic party seem to have the problem. First, they put up a supremely incompetent candidate in Hillary whose main selling point is her hubby was President and she has a vagina. She managed to lose to Trump - a man who is barely sentient.

    Then they try impeachment to produce a spectacle that they hope will do l politically. American presidents of both stripes have had interesting back-stories and Trump's naked politicking in office hardly compares. Trump' main crime is that he's uncouth, but he generally does what he says he will - barmy though it may be.

    All the Democrats can offer is efficiency and that's going well. An Iowa caucus from out of the Bash Street kids, and an impeachment process which failed (as it was bound to do) cost a fortune, and looked the farce it was.

    Are they trying to win?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Intriguingly, all the data from the satellite caucuses (i.e. old people in Florida and Arizona) was that they were unfriendly to Sanders. It therefore surprises me that people assume Sanders will gain from their inclusion and nab Iowa.

    A better opportunity for him, one would think, would be if there had been errors in reporting, such as we saw earlier today where Sanders votes had been attributed to Street.
    What data? The satellite caucus districts already reporting on nyt show big leads for Bernie.
    I suspect that Buttgieg may have this, purely based on the logic that the final precinct result to come is more likely to be broadly consistent with the bulk of results rather than be associated with the last particular precinct result (which was so strong for Sanders and may be an outlier).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    philiph said:

    alex_ said:

    Can anyone explain which bit of the article the headlined “alarm” is supposed to refer to?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/06/economists-warning-boris-johnson-election-pledge-output

    The "alarm" at The Guardian is the idea of two full Tory terms......
    This is the first section of the article:

    It would take Boris Johnson two full terms as prime minister to fulfil his pledge to “level up” the British economy, according to one of the UK’s leading economic thinktanks.

    If there was genuine levelling up of the economy over a ten year period wouldn't that be a success on just about every metric imaginable?

    Who would actually stand against that as a policy, and for what reason?

    I would have thought it was pretty obvious that it isn't something that can be done sustainably in a couple of years. Quick fixes have a reputation for quick collapses.
    I think the point of the report is that massive infrastructure spending in the regions will have only a very minor effect on growth, but will bust spending plans and cause inflation due to lack of capacity.

    It does rather have a ring of Gordon Brown's end of boom and bust about it.
  • Talk about a third choice:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/05/theresa-may-allies-say-has-stature-head-un-climate-change-conference/

    FWIW - I think she’d be able to do anything on this but chair it. She doesn’t have the people skills.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Stocky said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Intriguingly, all the data from the satellite caucuses (i.e. old people in Florida and Arizona) was that they were unfriendly to Sanders. It therefore surprises me that people assume Sanders will gain from their inclusion and nab Iowa.

    A better opportunity for him, one would think, would be if there had been errors in reporting, such as we saw earlier today where Sanders votes had been attributed to Street.
    What data? The satellite caucus districts already reporting on nyt show big leads for Bernie.
    I suspect that Buttgieg may have this, purely based on the logic that the final precinct result to come is more likely to be broadly consistent with the bulk of results rather than be associated with the last particular precinct result (which was so strong for Sanders and may be an outlier).
    Quite glad that I cashed out when well Green on Pete!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Intriguingly, all the data from the satellite caucuses (i.e. old people in Florida and Arizona) was that they were unfriendly to Sanders. It therefore surprises me that people assume Sanders will gain from their inclusion and nab Iowa.

    A better opportunity for him, one would think, would be if there had been errors in reporting, such as we saw earlier today where Sanders votes had been attributed to Street.
    What data? The satellite caucus districts already reporting on nyt show big leads for Bernie.
    I suspect that Buttgieg may have this, purely based on the logic that the final precinct result to come is more likely to be broadly consistent with the bulk of results rather than be associated with the last particular precinct result (which was so strong for Sanders and may be an outlier).
    Quite glad that I cashed out when well Green on Pete!
    Wish I had!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Intriguingly, all the data from the satellite caucuses (i.e. old people in Florida and Arizona) was that they were unfriendly to Sanders. It therefore surprises me that people assume Sanders will gain from their inclusion and nab Iowa.

    A better opportunity for him, one would think, would be if there had been errors in reporting, such as we saw earlier today where Sanders votes had been attributed to Street.
    What data? The satellite caucus districts already reporting on nyt show big leads for Bernie.
    I suspect that Buttgieg may have this, purely based on the logic that the final precinct result to come is more likely to be broadly consistent with the bulk of results rather than be associated with the last particular precinct result (which was so strong for Sanders and may be an outlier).
    Quite glad that I cashed out when well Green on Pete!
    Foxy: I`m looking forward to spending my winnings (ahem) with my daughter in a restaurant in Oakham this evening. Your neck of the woods I think?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    So who is going to deliver the Scottish budget today?

    Presumably all the papers are already printed, and the next however many days of Parliamentary time set aside to debate it?
  • Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    JohnLoony said:

    I was astonished to read a comment in the previous thread which said "One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed" in reference to Kirk Douglas. No he wasn't, and no he won't. Obvious reasons for both.

    I can think of many films where he was much missed, say, Paths of Glory where he stood on top of a parapet blowing a whistle and amazingly never got hit.

    Anyone would think the soldiers were paid to shoot at his supporting cast...
    Lauren Bacall missed nothing - see where she's looking in Young Man with a Horn:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirk_Douglas#/media/File:Douglas_-_Bacall_-_Horn_1950.jpg
    There's a fairly excoriating caricature of Douglas in Martin Amis's Money (I believe Amis was involved in a screenplay of some sf schlock or other) which involves Lorne Guyland taking his clothes off to get the pecs out at every opportunity. Tbf I wouldn't always trust Amis as a reliable witness, but his version is funny.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Talk about a third choice:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/05/theresa-may-allies-say-has-stature-head-un-climate-change-conference/

    FWIW - I think she’d be able to do anything on this but chair it. She doesn’t have the people skills.

  • Sandpit said:

    So who is going to deliver the Scottish budget today?

    Presumably all the papers are already printed, and the next however many days of Parliamentary time set aside to debate it?
    Kate Forbes, junior finance minister; big challenge and opportunity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Talk about a third choice:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/05/theresa-may-allies-say-has-stature-head-un-climate-change-conference/

    FWIW - I think she’d be able to do anything on this but chair it. She doesn’t have the people skills.

    The PM should find someone completely unexpected to do it - needs to be well known, but not a recent or current politician. Someone from business, who understands the real world, would be a good idea - in the same vein as Andy Street running for mayor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    So who is going to deliver the Scottish budget today?

    Presumably all the papers are already printed, and the next however many days of Parliamentary time set aside to debate it?
    Kate Forbes, junior finance minister; big challenge and opportunity.
    Good luck to her, in difficult circumstances not of her own making.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Intriguingly, all the data from the satellite caucuses (i.e. old people in Florida and Arizona) was that they were unfriendly to Sanders. It therefore surprises me that people assume Sanders will gain from their inclusion and nab Iowa.

    A better opportunity for him, one would think, would be if there had been errors in reporting, such as we saw earlier today where Sanders votes had been attributed to Street.
    What data? The satellite caucus districts already reporting on nyt show big leads for Bernie.
    There were two kinds of satellites - the ones in warm southern states (rich, pro-Kabouchar/Buttigieg) and the ones for shift workers in Iowa (poor, pro-Sanders). Quite possible that the latter were bigger but I don't know.
  • Sandpit said:

    Talk about a third choice:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/05/theresa-may-allies-say-has-stature-head-un-climate-change-conference/

    FWIW - I think she’d be able to do anything on this but chair it. She doesn’t have the people skills.

    The PM should find someone completely unexpected to do it - needs to be well known, but not a recent or current politician. Someone from business, who understands the real world, would be a good idea - in the same vein as Andy Street running for mayor.
    But also they need to be kept on message. Greenism is a fundamentalist ideology, which will hinder any kind of positive movement as betrayal if it isn’t exactly what they want. You need someone who won’t drink the koolaide.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Great threader by Green Machine.

    SF have not got enough candidates to take advantage of their surge I suspect.
  • Sandpit said:

    So who is going to deliver the Scottish budget today?

    Presumably all the papers are already printed, and the next however many days of Parliamentary time set aside to debate it?
    If you are a minority administration and you’ve only started negations with other members to pass your budget on budget day, you are better off without him.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    JohnLoony said:

    I was astonished to read a comment in the previous thread which said "One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed" in reference to Kirk Douglas. No he wasn't, and no he won't. Obvious reasons for both.

    I can think of many films where he was much missed, say, Paths of Glory where he stood on top of a parapet blowing a whistle and amazingly never got hit.

    Anyone would think the soldiers were paid to shoot at his supporting cast...
    Lauren Bacall missed nothing - see where she's looking in Young Man with a Horn:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirk_Douglas#/media/File:Douglas_-_Bacall_-_Horn_1950.jpg
    There's a fairly excoriating caricature of Douglas in Martin Amis's Money (I believe Amis was involved in a screenplay of some sf schlock or other) which involves Lorne Guyland taking his clothes off to get the pecs out at every opportunity. Tbf I wouldn't always trust Amis as a reliable witness, but his version is funny.
    I always thought - on no particular evidence - that LG was Clint Eastwood.
This discussion has been closed.