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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iowa could still go either way with 97% of precincts counted

SystemSystem Posts: 11,006
edited February 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iowa could still go either way with 97% of precincts counted

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    First like the GOP.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    Following the fiasco with the poll and now the primary Iowans couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

    For 2024 and onwards they should scrap the caucus and go for a winner takes all primary.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,446
    Can't believe Bernie was 20/1 last night. I almost placed a "silly" bet on him just in case he came from behind.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.161392765
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    FPT:
    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    538 now has Sanders as favourite in every single primary and caucus.

    Though it may be overestimating the impact of Iowa, since it will have been blunted by the drip-feeding of results and the impeachment news.

    I agree, if Sanders wins Iowa on all 3 counts then the perception would be that he not only won, but that he beat those who tried to cheat him out of victory.

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Look at how he's been polling in those states. Iowa was demographically a dream for him, his campaign threw all of its resources there, and this was the best he could do. If he maintains his lead in Iowa pulls off an upset in NH then that might just give him a boost, but otherwise he's going to run smack into Nevada and SC where he's polling at an average of 7% and 5%, then limp into super Tuesday with no momentum, dreadful national numbers, and massive liabilities in the minority vote. Basically, he's just not very popular.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    1) A copyright infringement case from the House of Mouse will make anyone crap their pants

    2) Surprised it hasn't happened before

    3) Doxxing usually gets you the ban hammer

    4) Not sure what James O'Keefe has done, his account seems visible.
  • Options
    TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    fpt..
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1225377917531836417

    Well that clearly proves it. Brexit should be cancelled with immediate effect.
    Also, anyone who downloaded Ode to Joy was clearly saying Die Hard is not a Christmas film.
    https://youtu.be/JMKQVPV1pf0?t=103

    Is it the bit where he says Merry Christmas in the middle of Ode to Joy (1:45) that convinces you?
    This did

    https://ew.com/movies/2018/07/15/bruce-willis-die-hard-not-christmas-movie/
    https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/944740130681753601?s=20

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdeSouza/status/944812347461218305?s=20

    This bit? The bit where the writer of Die Hard gets asked if it's a Christmas movie and says "Yes", and then adds the hashtag #DieHardIsAChristmasMovie.. That convinced you?!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    TrèsDifficile said:

    fpt..

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1225377917531836417

    Well that clearly proves it. Brexit should be cancelled with immediate effect.
    Also, anyone who downloaded Ode to Joy was clearly saying Die Hard is not a Christmas film.
    https://youtu.be/JMKQVPV1pf0?t=103

    Is it the bit where he says Merry Christmas in the middle of Ode to Joy (1:45) that convinces you?
    This did

    https://ew.com/movies/2018/07/15/bruce-willis-die-hard-not-christmas-movie/
    https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/944740130681753601?s=20

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdeSouza/status/944812347461218305?s=20

    This bit? The bit where the writer of Die Hard gets asked if it's a Christmas movie and says "Yes", and then adds the hashtag #DieHardIsAChristmasMovie.. That convinced you?!
    The lead actor knows better.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    Third UK coronavirus case confirmed.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Stereotomy said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    538 now has Sanders as favourite in every single primary and caucus.

    Though it may be overestimating the impact of Iowa, since it will have been blunted by the drip-feeding of results and the impeachment news.

    I agree, if Sanders wins Iowa on all 3 counts then the perception would be that he not only won, but that he beat those who tried to cheat him out of victory.

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Look at how he's been polling in those states. Iowa was demographically a dream for him, his campaign threw all of its resources there, and this was the best he could do. If he maintains his lead in Iowa pulls off an upset in NH then that might just give him a boost, but otherwise he's going to run smack into Nevada and SC where he's polling at an average of 7% and 5%, then limp into super Tuesday with no momentum, dreadful national numbers, and massive liabilities in the minority vote. Basically, he's just not very popular.
    He outperformed expectations in Iowa (where Biden bombed) and is now doing better in NH polling.

    I’m not sure the pre-Iowa polling for Nevada or SC tells you very much, because the other early contests will influence the result there.

    I’m planning to top up on Biden after NH (where I expect him to underperform again) as I expect him to do much better in SC and win.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.

    Indeed.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited February 2020
    Hmm, what happened in the Democratic primaries the last time Sanders was tied neck-and-neck with a moderate in Iowa? :wink:

    For the record, I don't expect history to repeat itself in the moderates' favour - at this rate, Sanders could have this thing wrapped up within a month. The closer parallel is the Republican 2016 primary, where a large, fractured field failed to unify against the populist, and the populist sailed through undisturbed.
  • Options
    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    For the record, I think trump will win regardless.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    Third UK Corona case confirmed.

    Anyone we know?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    1) A copyright infringement case from the House of Mouse will make anyone crap their pants

    2) Surprised it hasn't happened before

    3) Doxxing usually gets you the ban hammer

    4) Not sure what James O'Keefe has done, his account seems visible.
    I wasn't saying they were all wrong, just saying twitter seem to have been rather proactive on some high profile accounts.

    #1 - was a shame. It was rather cute / funny / harmless and actually doing Disney a lot of favours in terms of free advertising

    #2 - Totally agree

    #3 - I believe it wasn't so just the Doxxing (I believe the information was publicly available), as spreading pointing towards a conspiracy theory.

    #4 - It seems he got reported for Doxxing, but actually seems quite debatable. They have had their standard undercover video pieces on campaign staffers, who they befriend, have a few beers and then record them spouting nuts stuff.

    It seems a journalist (Washington Post I think) claimed their piece was all Fake News, as one of the staffers they got on camera was only a random volunteer. O'Keefe then posted part of the guys pay stub, saying retract, he was and is still paid employee.

    O'Keefe always needs to be treated with a lot of scepticism, given his past. Although it seems more recently, although they big up their highly partisan scooped against big tech and Democratic politicians, they have stacked up (although not to the level of outrage they obviously claim).
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Third UK coronavirus case confirmed.

    I thought we'd had three UK cases on PB alone?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.

    I’ve hated it for 30 years.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    538 now has Sanders as favourite in every single primary and caucus.

    Though it may be overestimating the impact of Iowa, since it will have been blunted by the drip-feeding of results and the impeachment news.

    I agree, if Sanders wins Iowa on all 3 counts then the perception would be that he not only won, but that he beat those who tried to cheat him out of victory.

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Look at how he's been polling in those states. Iowa was demographically a dream for him, his campaign threw all of its resources there, and this was the best he could do. If he maintains his lead in Iowa pulls off an upset in NH then that might just give him a boost, but otherwise he's going to run smack into Nevada and SC where he's polling at an average of 7% and 5%, then limp into super Tuesday with no momentum, dreadful national numbers, and massive liabilities in the minority vote. Basically, he's just not very popular.
    He outperformed expectations in Iowa (where Biden bombed) and is now doing better in NH polling.

    I’m not sure the pre-Iowa polling for Nevada or SC tells you very much, because the other early contests will influence the result there.

    I’m planning to top up on Biden after NH (where I expect him to underperform again) as I expect him to do much better in SC and win.
    It's Iowa. It doesn't look anything like America, let alone the Democratic coalition. Buttigieg won in the most unrepresentative places. He's a mid-Westerner who couldn't secure a mid-Western state, if he isn't winning here he isn't going to win much elsewhere.

    Other candidates have more chance of staying around longer.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.

    I’ve hated it for 30 years.
    The BBC used it on the opening titles of their Euro 96 coverage. I reckon they'll bring it back this summer just to annoy Brexiteers.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    fpt..

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1225377917531836417

    Well that clearly proves it. Brexit should be cancelled with immediate effect.
    Also, anyone who downloaded Ode to Joy was clearly saying Die Hard is not a Christmas film.
    https://youtu.be/JMKQVPV1pf0?t=103

    Is it the bit where he says Merry Christmas in the middle of Ode to Joy (1:45) that convinces you?
    This did

    https://ew.com/movies/2018/07/15/bruce-willis-die-hard-not-christmas-movie/
    https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/944740130681753601?s=20

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdeSouza/status/944812347461218305?s=20

    This bit? The bit where the writer of Die Hard gets asked if it's a Christmas movie and says "Yes", and then adds the hashtag #DieHardIsAChristmasMovie.. That convinced you?!
    The lead actor knows better.
    Ooh, now there's a question. Who decides the meaning of a movie? Opinions vary from "death of the author" (it's decided by the viewer) to "word of God" (it's decided by the writer or director). This has reared its ugly head - see the debate about whether Decker is a replicant in Blade Runner: the director insists he is, the writer and star insist he isn't. Personally I go with intent of the author, leavened by "if it walks like a duck". Both criteria strongly indicate that Die Hard is an Xmas movie.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    1) A copyright infringement case from the House of Mouse will make anyone crap their pants

    2) Surprised it hasn't happened before

    3) Doxxing usually gets you the ban hammer

    4) Not sure what James O'Keefe has done, his account seems visible.
    I wasn't saying they were all wrong, just saying twitter seem to have been rather proactive on some high profile accounts.

    #1 - was a shame. It was rather cute / funny / harmless and actually doing Disney a lot of favours in terms of free advertising

    #2 - Totally agree

    #3 - I believe it wasn't so just the Doxxing (I believe the information was publicly avaiable), as spreading pointing towards a conspiracy theory.

    #4 - It seems he got reported for Doxxing, but actually seems quite debatable. They have had their standard undercover video pieces on campaign staffers, who they befriend, have a few beers and then record them spouting nuts stuff.

    It seems a journalist (Washington Post I think) claimed their piece was all Fake News, as one of the staffers they got on camera was only a random volunteer. O'Keefe then posted part of the guys pay stub, saying retract, he was and is still paid employee.
    Disney have realised that they really screwed up the launch of Disney+.

    Who could have predicted that if they didn't launch Disney+ in all the major markets people would illegally stream it.

    They want to keep the surprise of Baby Yoda for the territories they launch in 2020, including the UK next month.

    So this is part of the plan to make sure no one is aware of Baby Yoda in the UK until Disney+ launches next month.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.

    I’ve hated it for 30 years.
    The BBC used it on the opening titles of their Euro 96 coverage. I reckon they'll bring it back this summer just to annoy Brexiteers.
    Beethoven's Ninth will be listened to when Brexit is a historical footnote. If Leavers are going to start judging artistic merit through a Brexit filter, Britain is in even more trouble than I thought.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.

    I’ve hated it for 30 years.
    Well now we are out of the EU you can stop. :)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    1) A copyright infringement case from the House of Mouse will make anyone crap their pants

    2) Surprised it hasn't happened before

    3) Doxxing usually gets you the ban hammer

    4) Not sure what James O'Keefe has done, his account seems visible.
    I wasn't saying they were all wrong, just saying twitter seem to have been rather proactive on some high profile accounts.

    #1 - was a shame. It was rather cute / funny / harmless and actually doing Disney a lot of favours in terms of free advertising

    #2 - Totally agree

    #3 - I believe it wasn't so just the Doxxing (I believe the information was publicly avaiable), as spreading pointing towards a conspiracy theory.

    #4 - It seems he got reported for Doxxing, but actually seems quite debatable. They have had their standard undercover video pieces on campaign staffers, who they befriend, have a few beers and then record them spouting nuts stuff.

    It seems a journalist (Washington Post I think) claimed their piece was all Fake News, as one of the staffers they got on camera was only a random volunteer. O'Keefe then posted part of the guys pay stub, saying retract, he was and is still paid employee.
    Disney have realised that they really screwed up the launch of Disney+.

    Who could have predicted that if they didn't launch Disney+ in all the major markets people would illegally stream it.

    They want to keep the surprise of Baby Yoda for the territories they launch in 2020, including the UK next month.

    So this is part of the plan to make sure no one is aware of Baby Yoda in the UK until Disney+ launches next month.
    They must have lost $100s millions of potential Christmas revenue of Baby Yoda merch as well.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    viewcode said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.

    I’ve hated it for 30 years.
    Well now we are out of the EU you can stop. :)
    There’s no accounting for taste!
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.

    I’ve hated it for 30 years.
    The BBC used it on the opening titles of their Euro 96 coverage. I reckon they'll bring it back this summer just to annoy Brexiteers.
    Beethoven's Ninth will be listened to when Brexit is a historical footnote. If Leavers are going to start judging artistic merit through a Brexit filter, Britain is in even more trouble than I thought.
    FWIW, I like it (though it got irritating when I heard it on a loop in Bonn).
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Third UK coronavirus case confirmed.

    I thought we'd had three UK cases on PB alone?
    Arguably @SeanT and @Byronic were two of them.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    538 now has Sanders as favourite in every single primary and caucus.

    Though it may be overestimating the impact of Iowa, since it will have been blunted by the drip-feeding of results and the impeachment news.

    I agree, if Sanders wins Iowa on all 3 counts then the perception would be that he not only won, but that he beat those who tried to cheat him out of victory.

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Look at how he's been polling in those states. Iowa was demographically a dream for him, his campaign threw all of its resources there, and this was the best he could do. If he maintains his lead in Iowa pulls off an upset in NH then that might just give him a boost, but otherwise he's going to run smack into Nevada and SC where he's polling at an average of 7% and 5%, then limp into super Tuesday with no momentum, dreadful national numbers, and massive liabilities in the minority vote. Basically, he's just not very popular.
    He outperformed expectations in Iowa (where Biden bombed) and is now doing better in NH polling.

    I’m not sure the pre-Iowa polling for Nevada or SC tells you very much, because the other early contests will influence the result there.

    I’m planning to top up on Biden after NH (where I expect him to underperform again) as I expect him to do much better in SC and win.
    It's Iowa. It doesn't look anything like America, let alone the Democratic coalition. Buttigieg won in the most unrepresentative places. He's a mid-Westerner who couldn't secure a mid-Western state, if he isn't winning here he isn't going to win much elsewhere.

    Other candidates have more chance of staying around longer.
    That’s possible but it’s also possible he becomes the most viable ‘stop Sanders’ candidate.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    1) A copyright infringement case from the House of Mouse will make anyone crap their pants

    2) Surprised it hasn't happened before

    3) Doxxing usually gets you the ban hammer

    4) Not sure what James O'Keefe has done, his account seems visible.
    I wasn't saying they were all wrong, just saying twitter seem to have been rather proactive on some high profile accounts.

    #1 - was a shame. It was rather cute / funny / harmless and actually doing Disney a lot of favours in terms of free advertising

    #2 - Totally agree

    #3 - I believe it wasn't so just the Doxxing (I believe the information was publicly avaiable), as spreading pointing towards a conspiracy theory.

    #4 - It seems he got reported for Doxxing, but actually seems quite debatable. They have had their standard undercover video pieces on campaign staffers, who they befriend, have a few beers and then record them spouting nuts stuff.

    It seems a journalist (Washington Post I think) claimed their piece was all Fake News, as one of the staffers they got on camera was only a random volunteer. O'Keefe then posted part of the guys pay stub, saying retract, he was and is still paid employee.
    Disney have realised that they really screwed up the launch of Disney+.

    Who could have predicted that if they didn't launch Disney+ in all the major markets people would illegally stream it.

    They want to keep the surprise of Baby Yoda for the territories they launch in 2020, including the UK next month.

    So this is part of the plan to make sure no one is aware of Baby Yoda in the UK until Disney+ launches next month.
    They must have lost $100s millions of potential Christmas revenue of Baby Yoda merch as well.
    Foolish and impetuous are they....
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    edited February 2020
    Beethoven's ninth is a fine piece of music, probably not as liked as it "should" be due to being overplayed for around the last 200 years.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,089
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    But "Lozza" Fox is still going, would you believe? Just checked and, yes, there he is, still emitting.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    Land of Hope and Tory? :wink:
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    contrarian said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    1) A copyright infringement case from the House of Mouse will make anyone crap their pants

    2) Surprised it hasn't happened before

    3) Doxxing usually gets you the ban hammer

    4) Not sure what James O'Keefe has done, his account seems visible.
    I wasn't saying they were all wrong, just saying twitter seem to have been rather proactive on some high profile accounts.

    #1 - was a shame. It was rather cute / funny / harmless and actually doing Disney a lot of favours in terms of free advertising

    #2 - Totally agree

    #3 - I believe it wasn't so just the Doxxing (I believe the information was publicly avaiable), as spreading pointing towards a conspiracy theory.

    #4 - It seems he got reported for Doxxing, but actually seems quite debatable. They have had their standard undercover video pieces on campaign staffers, who they befriend, have a few beers and then record them spouting nuts stuff.

    It seems a journalist (Washington Post I think) claimed their piece was all Fake News, as one of the staffers they got on camera was only a random volunteer. O'Keefe then posted part of the guys pay stub, saying retract, he was and is still paid employee.
    Disney have realised that they really screwed up the launch of Disney+.

    Who could have predicted that if they didn't launch Disney+ in all the major markets people would illegally stream it.

    They want to keep the surprise of Baby Yoda for the territories they launch in 2020, including the UK next month.

    So this is part of the plan to make sure no one is aware of Baby Yoda in the UK until Disney+ launches next month.
    They must have lost $100s millions of potential Christmas revenue of Baby Yoda merch as well.
    Foolish and impetuous are they....
    Around the soft toys at Hamleys, a perimeter create... :)
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Can't believe Bernie was 20/1 last night. I almost placed a "silly" bet on him just in case he came from behind.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.161392765

    I'm sorry about that.

    I only realised what was going on when I checked the numbers at around 2am this morning.

    By the time I posted it on PB most of you where probably asleep.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,331
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    I wow to thee my country is a left wing anthem. great tune, change the words
  • Options
    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    SandyRentool said:

    Third UK Corona case confirmed.

    Anyone we know?

    Prince Andrew.
  • Options
    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    Pulpstar said:

    Beethoven's ninth is a fine piece of music, probably not as liked as it "should" be due to being overplayed for the last 400 years.

    Peaceful music.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    TheGreenMachine said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Third UK Corona case confirmed.

    Anyone we know?

    Prince Andrew.
    Dandelion and Burdock
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Third UK coronavirus case confirmed.

    I thought we'd had three UK cases on PB alone?
    Arguably @SeanT and @Byronic were two of them.
    And @eadric coincidentally too.
  • Options
    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    contrarian said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    1) A copyright infringement case from the House of Mouse will make anyone crap their pants

    2) Surprised it hasn't happened before

    3) Doxxing usually gets you the ban hammer

    4) Not sure what James O'Keefe has done, his account seems visible.
    I wasn't saying they were all wrong, just saying twitter seem to have been rather proactive on some high profile accounts.

    #1 - was a shame. It was rather cute / funny / harmless and actually doing Disney a lot of favours in terms of free advertising

    #2 - Totally agree

    #3 - I believe it wasn't so just the Doxxing (I believe the information was publicly avaiable), as spreading pointing towards a conspiracy theory.

    #4 - It seems he got reported for Doxxing, but actually seems quite debatable. They have had their standard undercover video pieces on campaign staffers, who they befriend, have a few beers and then record them spouting nuts stuff.

    It seems a journalist (Washington Post I think) claimed their piece was all Fake News, as one of the staffers they got on camera was only a random volunteer. O'Keefe then posted part of the guys pay stub, saying retract, he was and is still paid employee.
    Disney have realised that they really screwed up the launch of Disney+.

    Who could have predicted that if they didn't launch Disney+ in all the major markets people would illegally stream it.

    They want to keep the surprise of Baby Yoda for the territories they launch in 2020, including the UK next month.

    So this is part of the plan to make sure no one is aware of Baby Yoda in the UK until Disney+ launches next month.
    They must have lost $100s millions of potential Christmas revenue of Baby Yoda merch as well.
    Foolish and impetuous are they....
    Surely that's "foolish and impetuous, they are"?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,238
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    I Vow to Thee My Country would never get past the snowflake police with all that death and sacrifice. No, it will have to be Bohemian Rhapsody. Then we, like the Americans, will have an anthem that's impossible for normal people to sing.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Casino_Royale said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    538 now has Sanders as favourite in every single primary and caucus.

    Though it may be overestimating the impact of Iowa, since it will have been blunted by the drip-feeding of results and the impeachment news.

    I agree, if Sanders wins Iowa on all 3 counts then the perception would be that he not only won, but that he beat those who tried to cheat him out of victory.

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Look at how he's been polling in those states. Iowa was demographically a dream for him, his campaign threw all of its resources there, and this was the best he could do. If he maintains his lead in Iowa pulls off an upset in NH then that might just give him a boost, but otherwise he's going to run smack into Nevada and SC where he's polling at an average of 7% and 5%, then limp into super Tuesday with no momentum, dreadful national numbers, and massive liabilities in the minority vote. Basically, he's just not very popular.
    He outperformed expectations in Iowa (where Biden bombed) and is now doing better in NH polling.

    I’m not sure the pre-Iowa polling for Nevada or SC tells you very much, because the other early contests will influence the result there.

    I’m planning to top up on Biden after NH (where I expect him to underperform again) as I expect him to do much better in SC and win.
    It's Iowa. It doesn't look anything like America, let alone the Democratic coalition. Buttigieg won in the most unrepresentative places. He's a mid-Westerner who couldn't secure a mid-Western state, if he isn't winning here he isn't going to win much elsewhere.

    Other candidates have more chance of staying around longer.
    That’s possible but it’s also possible he becomes the most viable ‘stop Sanders’ candidate.
    'Stop Sanders' is something Democratic machine pundits and foreign liberals care more about than Democratic primary-goers I suspect.
  • Options
    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043

  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    edited February 2020
    SandyRentool said:

    Third UK Corona case confirmed.

    Anyone we know?

    Reported in our local paper as 'at a house in York'.

    As opposed to in the House of York, as suggested.
  • Options
    TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Pulpstar said:

    Beethoven's ninth is a fine piece of music, probably not as liked as it "should" be due to being overplayed for around the last 200 years.

    I liked it best when it was Rhodesia's national anthem.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rise,_O_Voices_of_Rhodesia
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    Britain was never a nation state so it doesn't have a national anthem.

    Prussia had "God save the King" too, until they became Germany and got a proper national athem.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    Land of Hope and Glory if I was to choose.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    538 now has Sanders as favourite in every single primary and caucus.

    Though it may be overestimating the impact of Iowa, since it will have been blunted by the drip-feeding of results and the impeachment news.

    I agree, if Sanders wins Iowa on all 3 counts then the perception would be that he not only won, but that he beat those who tried to cheat him out of victory.

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Lr.
    He outperformed expectations in Iowa (where Biden bombed) and is now doing better in NH polling.

    I’m not sure the pre-Iowa polling for Nevada or SC tells you very much, because the other early contests will influence the result there.

    I’m planning to top up on Biden after NH (where I expect him to underperform again) as I expect him to do much better in SC and win.
    It's Iowa. It doesn't look anything like America, let alone the Democratic coalition. Buttigieg won in the most unrepresentative places. He's a mid-Westerner who couldn't secure a mid-Western state, if he isn't winning here he isn't going to win much elsewhere.

    Other candidates have more chance of staying around longer.
    That’s possible but it’s also possible he becomes the most viable ‘stop Sanders’ candidate.
    'Stop Sanders' is something Democratic machine pundits and foreign liberals care more about than Democratic primary-goers I suspect.
    Not everyone is a fan (some actually want to beat Trump) and so they will coalesce around the most viable alternative.

    That might be way short of Sanders amongst primary voters, but it will be someone.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    I Vow to Thee My Country would never get past the snowflake police with all that death and sacrifice. No, it will have to be Bohemian Rhapsody. Then we, like the Americans, will have an anthem that's impossible for normal people to sing.
    'World in Motion' with someone from the team playing doing the Barnsey rap.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    speedy2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can't believe Bernie was 20/1 last night. I almost placed a "silly" bet on him just in case he came from behind.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.161392765

    I'm sorry about that.

    I only realised what was going on when I checked the numbers at around 2am this morning.

    By the time I posted it on PB most of you where probably asleep.
    if you saw that coming you deserve to clean up and I hope you did.

    Personally I took my money so while it's an opportunity lost I do not have egg on my face.

    Had these results come on election night it would have been far better!
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    BluestBlue said:

    Hmm, what happened in the Democratic primaries the last time Sanders was tied neck-and-neck with a moderate in Iowa? :wink:

    For the record, I don't expect history to repeat itself in the moderates' favour - at this rate, Sanders could have this thing wrapped up within a month. The closer parallel is the Republican 2016 primary, where a large, fractured field failed to unify against the populist, and the populist sailed through undisturbed.

    In 2016 Sanders got 49.6% of the vote, (about 85 thousand people) this time its down to 44,700 with 3% left to count. on a similer but slightly lower turnout.

    Now yes that's mostly because many of his former supporters when to Warren, not because they have become moderators.

    I think this will be decided mostly by how drops out and when.

    Warren or Biden and kobishire and Bloomberg

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    speedy2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    Britain was never a nation state...
    1707-1801



  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Twitter seem to be getting rather busy on the using the ban hammer recently. First it was baby yoda parody account, then katie hopkins, zerohedge and now James O'Keefe.

    But "Lozza" Fox is still going, would you believe? Just checked and, yes, there he is, still emitting.
    I know, right? How dare Twitter not ban him for the crime of expressing extremely wide-held opinions...
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    Pulpstar said:

    Beethoven's ninth is a fine piece of music, probably not as liked as it "should" be due to being overplayed for around the last 200 years.

    Time to move on to Beethoven's String Quartets and Piano Sonatas.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,238
    Twitter bans and so on. In America (well, other places too but only America counts) there is increased lobbying to make Twitter, Facebook, Youtube and so on liable for what their users post. That's why they are a bit twitchy.

    Lobbying is led by concerned parents of cute Scots boys commercial rivals like IBM and Oracle.
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Casino_Royale said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    538 now has Sanders as favourite in every single primary and caucus.

    Though it may be overestimating the impact of Iowa, since it will have been blunted by the drip-feeding of results and the impeachment news.

    I agree, if Sanders wins Iowa on all 3 counts then the perception would be that he not only won, but that he beat those who tried to cheat him out of victory.

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Look at how he's been polling in those states. Iowa was demographically a dream for him, his campaign threw all of its resources there, and this was the best he could do. If he maintains his lead in Iowa pulls off an upset in NH then that might just give him a boost, but otherwise he's going to run smack into Nevada and SC where he's polling at an average of 7% and 5%, then limp into super Tuesday with no momentum, dreadful national numbers, and massive liabilities in the minority vote. Basically, he's just not very popular.
    He outperformed expectations in Iowa (where Biden bombed) and is now doing better in NH polling.

    I’m not sure the pre-Iowa polling for Nevada or SC tells you very much, because the other early contests will influence the result there.

    I’m planning to top up on Biden after NH (where I expect him to underperform again) as I expect him to do much better in SC and win.
    It's Iowa. It doesn't look anything like America, let alone the Democratic coalition. Buttigieg won in the most unrepresentative places. He's a mid-Westerner who couldn't secure a mid-Western state, if he isn't winning here he isn't going to win much elsewhere.

    Other candidates have more chance of staying around longer.
    That’s possible but it’s also possible he becomes the most viable ‘stop Sanders’ candidate.
    After the Iowa fiasco Buttigieg is probably going to become "Cheating Pete" in the public eyes.

    Anyway lets all wait for the N.Hampshire Debate, Biden and Klobuchar are bound to attack him in order to pop his bubble.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    edited February 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    Land of Hope and Glory if I was to choose.
    Complete with the minutes of intro, especially so that amateur anthem singers come in wrongly about three times before remembering there are a few introductory bars to the lento section.

    Getting it consistently wrong would be a huge national bonding exercise.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Beethoven is always more modern than I first think, mentally I have every classical composer pinned down as 16xx; along with all the great painters...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Cheatin Pete
    Crazy Bernie
    Mini Mike
    Pocahontas
    Sleepy Joe
  • Options
    Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    edited February 2020
    Reunion night tomorrow night at the debate. Andrew Yang back for an appearance. If nothing else - besides the nostalgia - he'll take time away from Biden's inevitable attacks on Sanders.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    edited February 2020
    Today's New Hampshire polls
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225271118111662080?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225274580660604928?s=20
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2020
    God Save The Queen is a terrible dirge.

    But I challenge anyone to sit through Land of Hope and Glory at eg Last Night of the Proms and not think its suitable to be a National Anthem.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    squareroot2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to say I detest God Save The Queen/King & Jerusalem, both are bloody dirges.

    Hopefully England can have its own national anthem in my lifetime.

    Bohemian Rhapsody or Tubthumping would do it for me, as would I Vow To Thee My Country in the right circumstances.

    I wow to thee my country is a left wing anthem. great tune, change the words
    For me, it would have to be another one of Dominic Frisbee songs, National Anthem of Libertaria:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkwPrKLK0cE
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Urquhart, why was Zerohedge banned?

    I wasn't a follower but recall the account being mentioned here various times.

    Mr. Pulpstar,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MFbn8EbB4k
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Philip_Thompson said:

    God Save The Queen is a terrible dirge.

    But I challenge anyone to sit through Land of Hope and Glory at eg Last Night of the Proms and not think its suitable to be a National Anthem.

    The range is too big and the top notes too high (in its original key).
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,238
    Philip_Thompson said:

    God Save The Queen is a terrible dirge.

    But I challenge anyone to sit through Land of Hope and Glory at eg Last Night of the Proms and not think its suitable to be a National Anthem.

    Apart from the words which exclude those not "born of thee" and urge the bounds of empire to be set "wider and wider". Great tune but even that's been hijacked for American schools' prize days.
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    On the West Midlands mayor topic, this is an excellent article about how toxic Yaqoob is:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/27/battle-to-become-west-midlands-mayor-has-revived-memories-of-clan-rivalry-and-misogyny
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    Today's New Hampshire polls
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225271118111662080?s=20


    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225274580660604928?s=20

    "Cheating Pete" seems to simply have gobled up undecideds.

    But it's on the TV debate where his bubble can pop.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    The overton window is so far to the right in the USA I'd actively think about voting for Sanders or Warren there. Not saying I would, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,089
    edited February 2020
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Beethoven's Ninth will be listened to when Brexit is a historical footnote. If Leavers are going to start judging artistic merit through a Brexit filter, Britain is in even more trouble than I thought.

    Interesting idea you raise. How Remainy or Leavey is any particular piece of music? I am not a classical person so must stick to popular when assessing this - as I am now doing since you've brought it up.

    So, what is the Remainiest song of all time? And conversely the Leaviest?

    For me -

    Most Remainy - Angel Eyes - Wet Wet Wet.
    Most Leavey - Grandad - Clive Dunn.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2020
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Urquhart, why was Zerohedge banned?

    I wasn't a follower but recall the account being mentioned here various times.

    Mr. Pulpstar,

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MFbn8EbB4k

    Zerohedge has always been shall we say an "interesting" outlet. Lots of perfectly normal stuff mixed with more conspiratorial and arguable propaganda, which has made quite a few people rather suspicious of the real intentions of the people behind. But it had / has a very large following on social media.

    It seems in this case they tweeted a link to a story which was pushing a conspiracy theory that the coronavirus originated in a Chinese lab, and then I believe they went on to post the contact details of the scientist (which is freely available on the web).
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    Are we not talking entirely about bragging rights now? Surely Sanders and Buttigieg are going to have the same number of delegates regardless. Or is there a "winners bonus"? I vaguely recall something like that in some states the last time around.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Pulpstar said:

    Beethoven is always more modern than I first think, mentally I have every classical composer pinned down as 16xx; along with all the great painters...

    Prince Philip was born closer to the premiere of Beethoven's 9th than to the present day.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    speedy2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    5.

    I

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Look at how he's been polling in those states. Iowa was demographically a dream for him, his campaign threw all of its resources there, and this was the best he could do. If he maintains his lead in Iowa pulls off an upset in NH then that might just give him a boost, but otherwise he's going to run smack into Nevada and SC where he's polling at an average of 7% and 5%, then limp into super Tuesday with no momentum, dreadful national numbers, and massive liabilities in the minority vote. Basically, he's just not very popular.
    He outperformed expectations in Iowa (where Biden bombed) and is now doing better in NH polling.

    I’m not sure the pre-Iowa polling for Nevada or SC tells you very much, because the other early contests will influence the result there.

    I’m planning to top up on Biden after NH (where I expect him to underperform again) as I expect him to do much better in SC and win.
    It's Iowa. It doesn't look anything like America, let alone the Democratic coalition. Buttigieg won in the most unrepresentative places. He's a mid-Westerner who couldn't secure a mid-Western state, if he isn't winning here he isn't going to win much elsewhere.

    Other candidates have more chance of staying around longer.
    That’s possible but it’s also possible he becomes the most viable ‘stop Sanders’ candidate.
    After the Iowa fiasco Buttigieg is probably going to become "Cheating Pete" in the public eyes.

    Anyway lets all wait for the N.Hampshire Debate, Biden and Klobuchar are bound to attack him in order to pop his bubble.
    Is there anyone other than Sanders supporters calling him cheating Pete?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Casino_Royale said:



    Is there anyone other than Sanders supporters calling him cheating Pete?

    There is no way Trump will pass up the opportunity.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    Are we not talking entirely about bragging rights now? Surely Sanders and Buttigieg are going to have the same number of delegates regardless. Or is there a "winners bonus"? I vaguely recall something like that in some states the last time around.

    Bragging rights.

    And betting outcomes.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,089
    Pulpstar said:

    The overton window is so far to the right in the USA I'd actively think about voting for Sanders or Warren there. Not saying I would, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

    And surely you would - please god say you would! - vote for either of them over Trump.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    edited February 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    God Save The Queen is a terrible dirge.

    But I challenge anyone to sit through Land of Hope and Glory at eg Last Night of the Proms and not think its suitable to be a National Anthem.

    I agree, God Save the Queen should be the royal anthem the UK shares with Australia, Canada and New Zealand and Land of Hope and Glory should be the UK anthem and Jerusalem the English anthem
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Brexit songs

    Most Remainey John Lennon's Imagine

    Most Leavey Pulp's Common People
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    God Save The Queen is a terrible dirge.

    But I challenge anyone to sit through Land of Hope and Glory at eg Last Night of the Proms and not think its suitable to be a National Anthem.

    Apart from the words which exclude those not "born of thee" and urge the bounds of empire to be set "wider and wider". Great tune but even that's been hijacked for American schools' prize days.
    It doesn't actually mention Empire and I think it is a bit narrow minded to think that it can only be enjoyed by those born of thee. In fact the next line that you object to can be interpreted in a modern way to mean the opposite.

    I want a wide and open Britain that is welcoming to all. I'd quite happily interpret "Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set" to be open to that as opposed to thinking in Empire terms.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    contrarian said:

    Brexit songs

    Most Remainey John Lennon's Imagine

    Most Leavey Pulp's Common People

    WTF?! How is Common People a "Leavey" song? A terrible slur on a great song.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Casino_Royale said:


    Is there anyone other than Sanders supporters calling him cheating Pete?

    I'll be disappointed if Trump doesn't come out with it in a rally.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2020
    Benpointer said:

    contrarian said:

    Brexit songs

    Most Remainey John Lennon's Imagine

    Most Leavey Pulp's Common People

    WTF?! How is Common People a "Leavey" song? A terrible slur on a great song.
    Pulp foresaw the remain/middle class leftist tendency fifteen years before it came to prominence.

    Stuffed with people like girl he dates in the song.

    The point being, they cannot know, comprehend or represent the working class, even if they want to.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,089
    edited February 2020
    BluestBlue said:

    I know, right? How dare Twitter not ban him for the crime of expressing extremely wide-held opinions...

    Well, quite, that's my point really. That despite all of the nonsense we hear about vulgar reactionaries getting persecuted - silenced and even banged up just for speaking their minds - Fox remains at liberty, both physically and online.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2020
    DavidL said:

    Are we not talking entirely about bragging rights now? Surely Sanders and Buttigieg are going to have the same number of delegates regardless. Or is there a "winners bonus"? I vaguely recall something like that in some states the last time around.

    The Iowa Caucuses are all about bragging rights since it's not exactly delegate-rich. No there's no bonus, though there are unpledged delegates who could be important down the road, so being seen to 'win' couild be useful at the national convention.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Pulpstar said:

    The overton window is so far to the right in the USA I'd actively think about voting for Sanders or Warren there. Not saying I would, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

    I think it’s much more polarised on identity issues.

    I’d have a problem as I vehemently disagree with both Republican and Democratic positions.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we not talking entirely about bragging rights now? Surely Sanders and Buttigieg are going to have the same number of delegates regardless. Or is there a "winners bonus"? I vaguely recall something like that in some states the last time around.

    Bragging rights.

    And betting outcomes.
    The latter I get. I fear the bragging rights are diminished by the sheer tedium of this farce.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    Are we now in an era where if China, rather than the US, sneezes the world catches cold?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/05/coronavirus-markets-black-swan-dive-chinese-outbreak-economy
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Gabs3 said:

    On the West Midlands mayor topic, this is an excellent article about how toxic Yaqoob is:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/27/battle-to-become-west-midlands-mayor-has-revived-memories-of-clan-rivalry-and-misogyny

    Fortunately, i understand, she lost the labour party contest, I have not seen the full results, but would be interested if anybody has them.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Contrarian, must admit I really dislike Imagine. It drips with hypocrisy.

    "Imagine there's no money," sang the millionaire, playing his piano, in his mansion.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    speedy2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    FPT:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    538 now has Sanders as favourite in every single primary and caucus.

    Though it may be overestimating the impact of Iowa, since it will have been blunted by the drip-feeding of results and the impeachment news.

    I agree, if Sanders wins Iowa on all 3 counts then the perception would be that he not only won, but that he beat those who tried to cheat him out of victory.

    It will be an entirely different race.
    Especially since he's very likely to win NH, and at that point- if he finishes ahead in Iowa- it's hard to report that as anything except "won the first two states".
    It looks like it will end up with Buttigieg chasing Sanders to the convention to me, with Bloomberg doing his best to cockblock the second but actually ending up cockblocking the first instead.
    Buttigieg isn't going to get a sniff after NH.
    Why?
    Look at how he's been polling in those states. Iowa was demographically a dream for him, his campaign threw all of its resources there, and this was the best he could momentum, dreadful national numbers, and massive liabilities in the minority vote. Basically, he's just not very popular.
    He outperformed expectations in Iowa (where Biden bombed) and is now doing better in NH polling.

    I’m not sure the pre-Iowa polling for Nevada or SC tells you very much, because the other early contests will influence the result there.

    I’m planning to top up on Biden after NH (where I expect him to underperform again) as I expect him to do much better in SC and win.
    It's Iowa. It doesn't look anything like America, let alone the Democratic coalition. Buttigieg won in the most unrepresentative places. He's a mid-Westerner who couldn't secure a mid-Western state, if he isn't winning here he isn't going to win much elsewhere.

    Other candidates have more chance of staying around longer.
    That’s possible but it’s also possible he becomes the most viable ‘stop Sanders’ candidate.
    After the Iowa fiasco Buttigieg is probably going to become "Cheating Pete" in the public eyes.

    Anyway lets all wait for the N.Hampshire Debate, Biden and Klobuchar are bound to attack him in order to pop his bubble.
    Probably. In your imagination.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,961
    Benpointer said:

    contrarian said:

    Brexit songs

    Most Remainey John Lennon's Imagine

    Most Leavey Pulp's Common People

    WTF?! How is Common People a "Leavey" song? A terrible slur on a great song.
    The right have a habit of appropriating good stuff cos they're bit rubbish on the creative side.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    Pulpstar said:

    The overton window is so far to the right in the USA I'd actively think about voting for Sanders or Warren there. Not saying I would, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

    In the primaries, or the general ?
    In a contest against Trump, I wouldn't even hesitate.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    edited February 2020
    contrarian said:

    Benpointer said:

    contrarian said:

    Brexit songs

    Most Remainey John Lennon's Imagine

    Most Leavey Pulp's Common People

    WTF?! How is Common People a "Leavey" song? A terrible slur on a great song.
    Pulp foresaw the remain/middle class leftist tendency fifteen years before it came to prominence.

    Stuffed with people like girl he dates in the song.

    The point being, they cannot know, comprehend or represent the working class, even if they want to.
    If you think the girl from Greece is middle (not upper) class you need to recalibrate your scale.

    Today's 'common people' are precisely the ones who have been shafted by the Brexit-supporting super-wealthy elite (e.g. Barclay brothers, Murdoch, Bamford, Wetherspoon, Dyson, Rees-Mogg,... I could go on).
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,961
    contrarian said:

    Benpointer said:

    contrarian said:

    Brexit songs

    Most Remainey John Lennon's Imagine

    Most Leavey Pulp's Common People

    WTF?! How is Common People a "Leavey" song? A terrible slur on a great song.
    Pulp foresaw the remain/middle class leftist tendency fifteen years before it came to prominence.

    Stuffed with people like girl he dates in the song.

    The point being, they cannot know, comprehend or represent the working class, even if they want to.
    Does that mean when Jarvis supported Remain that he'd been brainwashed into becoming part of the bourgeoisie?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT Ode To Joy is one of the finest pieces of music ever written. You have to be Pavlovian trained by Brexit to dislike it.

    No, you don't.
    This remainer loves Beethoven, but is not particularly keen on OTJ.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Contrarian, must admit I really dislike Imagine. It drips with hypocrisy.

    "Imagine there's no money," sang the millionaire, playing his piano, in his mansion.

    and playing that piano with a smug air of superiority.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    The things I find most extraordinary about the Iowa caucuses is that not only has not a single candidate has withdrawn in the aftermath of them - in a field of 11 - but there are more candidates in the mix now than there were before the caucuses were held.

    Sure, it's easy enough to see how Sanders could walk away with it. Alternatively, you can see how it might narrow down quite quickly to Sanders vs Buttigieg. On the other hand, you can also see how a Biden / Bloomberg / Buttigieg / Klobuchar / Sanders / Warren six-way contest could come about, with Steyer hanging around in the background just because he can.
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