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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » California moves into lockdown whilst in the UK TV ratings soa

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » California moves into lockdown whilst in the UK TV ratings soar and a London paper suspends its printed edition and goes online only

The Governor of California Orders All in the US's largest state to Stay Home https://t.co/FNXbvAfWKP via @politicalwire

Read the full story here


«134567

Comments

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Bad news for the theory that heat will stop it.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1240839432284131328
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    It looks like coronavirus is claiming its first political casualties in the US.
    https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1240806440379371521?s=21
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Bad news for the theory that heat will stop it.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1240839432284131328

    The theory is actually that a combination of heat AND humidity will significantly inhibit it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    @Cyclefree ‘s respondent is far from alone.
    I have had conversations with owners of several similar small businesses this week who are in scarily similar circumstances.

    Should this carry on for very long, the potential for financial armageddon is very real indeed.

    What percentage of the UK workforce is employed by small business ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Nigelb said:

    Bad news for the theory that heat will stop it.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1240839432284131328

    The theory is actually that a combination of heat AND humidity will significantly inhibit it.
    Indeed AIUI it’s really the humidity - the heat only comes into it because warm air can carry a lot more water than cold air (which explains where rain comes from, basically). People latch onto the temperature aspect because it seems easier to grasp, but the extreme dryness of Saudi wouldn’t be expected to inhibit the virus that much.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Blimey.
    Never thought I’d approve a complimentary tweet about Tucker Carlson...
    https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1240066167256973312
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Coronavirus: ‘If you can’t work, what do you do?’
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51969192#
    Self-employed people say they are deeply worried about how they will survive with no income due to the impact of the coronavirus, after discovering the financial measures announced by the UK government on Tuesday do not apply to them.
    "It made me feel as if I wasn't of any importance," says Cathy Wassell, a freelance digital marketing agency owner based in Stratford-Upon-Avon who has run three businesses from home over the last 17 years.
    "I watched the chancellor's speech but it was glaringly obvious that there was no help for self-employed people in those packages at all."
    According to the Office for National Statistics, there are five million self-employed people in the UK, who make up 15% of the labour market.
    Many self-employed workers have told the BBC their income has dropped to zero, and they do not know how they will be able to pay their bills
    ....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    If you want to tax savings just print money.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Coronavirus credit crunch could make 2008 look like 'child's play'
    Experts warn companies that have gorged on cheap money for the past decade face going out of business
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-crisis-could-lead-to-new-credit-crunch-as-companies-struggle-with-debt
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    S Korea, 87 new cases today.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    If you want to tax savings just print money.
    The taxation route would take far to long anyway (and likely have far too many unintended consequences).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited March 2020
    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    Waves!

    Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?

    South Western Railway *
    Sky Sports
    Arsenal tickets
    Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
    Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
    Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing

    * I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.

    Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.

    So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,285
    Nigelb said:
    The zero figure is difficult to believe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    Waves!

    Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?

    South Western Railway *
    Sky Sports
    Arsenal tickets
    Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
    Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
    Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing

    * I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.

    Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.

    So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
    None of this is fine, from the car plants and airlines which are for now shut down, to the self employed person whose income has, for now, disappeared.

    What is for certain is that the economy cannot sustain eighteen months of this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:
    The zero figure is difficult to believe.
    Time will tell.
    The Chinese have said the lockdown in Wuhan remains in place until they’ve had fourteen consecutive days without new cases.

    If it flares up again, this isn’t something they can hide. Either way, we’ll find out eventually whether they have it under control or not.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    Waves!

    Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?

    South Western Railway *
    Sky Sports
    Arsenal tickets
    Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
    Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
    Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing

    * I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.

    Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.

    So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
    None of this is fine, from the car plants and airlines which are for now shut down, to the self employed person whose income has, for now, disappeared.

    What is for certain is that the economy cannot sustain eighteen months of this.
    Do you really want the tax payer to bail out Mesut Ozil?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    The Oxford vaccine effort aims to short circuit the regulatory process and have a significant scale trial of its vaccine this summer:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/19/uk-drive-develop-coronavirus-vaccine-science

    I hope government is committed now to fund/subsidise bulk manufacturing production. It will cost tens of millions, but that is nothing in the big scheme of things.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    Waves!

    Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?

    South Western Railway *
    Sky Sports
    Arsenal tickets
    Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
    Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
    Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing

    * I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.

    Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.

    So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
    None of this is fine, from the car plants and airlines which are for now shut down, to the self employed person whose income has, for now, disappeared.

    What is for certain is that the economy cannot sustain eighteen months of this.
    Do you really want the tax payer to bail out Mesut Ozil?
    I want there to be taxpayers in twelve months time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Should every country on the planet now have effectively a three week lockdown, simultaneously?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Some detail on what’s going on in Japan (about to relax the lockdown).
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-quietly-reopens-as-much-of-world-locks-down

    Unfortunately it will take quite a while to see whether they’ve been successful, which we could do with knowing one way or the other now.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited March 2020
    Nigelb said:

    The Oxford vaccine effort aims to short circuit the regulatory process and have a significant scale trial of its vaccine this summer:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/19/uk-drive-develop-coronavirus-vaccine-science

    I hope government is committed now to fund/subsidise bulk manufacturing production. It will cost tens of millions, but that is nothing in the big scheme of things.

    I'm all for scientists piling into this with Gov't support.

    However, here's a cautionary reminder of what can go wrong in drug trials even when the boffins are convinced they've found the winning formula:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22556736
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 431
    edited March 2020
    There's utter exasperation among teachers about the way the schools closure is being handled:

    "This is how the government runs things...

    Announce that all schools are closing but announce that some children - no-one knows who - will be still going to some school or another, in two days time.

    Omit to tell anyone WHO that applies to then leave the announcement until the following day. Promise the information on that day.

    Break their promise almost immediately - just about the only thing they've done in a timely fashion - and release it early in the morning on the day the school is closing!

    We are now having a remote SLT meeting that started at 5:30 in the morning."

    This after weeks of saying that schools wouldn't need to be closed for various bizarre reasons (children might not be major vectors; we need to develop herd-immunity). It's clear that, during those weeks, the government did not plan what any eventual closure would look like.

    Unfortunately, with our partisan politics, generic Tory-bashing doesn't get distinguished from misdeeds which should make everyone furious.

    We desperately need competence at the top.
  • There are a *lot* of people on the key workers list. More utter confusion for families and children and teachers in the few days inbetween announcing "all schools are closing" and the reality that "most schools aren't closing"

    My industry and our business are counted as essential (good). I however am working from home for the duration so I don't think my job is. My wife is a student teachimgassistamt weeks away from graduation. Her school have ask3d her to report as normal on Monday. So we could send our kids to school. Is the schooling being provided normal school or glorified childcare?

    Havi g been supportive initially of the government it now seems clear that they are a bunch of bumbling amateurs making this up as they go along.

  • whunterwhunter Posts: 60

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
    I am really sorry to read this. I am not sure what I would do in this situation, other than to priortise my own solvency over that of my childs nursery.

    When all is said and done this disease would have gone unnoticed for much of human history, rightly or wrongly.

    To take a crudely rationalist perspective, the harmful effects of a die off of >1% of the population, are far less than widespread social, political and economic collapse which could well now occur.

    On the other hand, the situation perhaps reveals that our social, political and economic model is totally screwed and fails the most basic stress testing.

    This is something that we all perhaps suspected, but lived in denial of. Unless the crisis is sufficiently serious, it won't be something that we confront.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.

    Why do you have to keep paying the nursery if you're at home looking after the kid?
  • Casino > I feel your pain. This is going to be brutal for so many. Pity that the government do t feel your pain.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Kicourse and Rochdale - totally right.

    It baffles me that I still hear people saying Johnson is doing well. He's goddamawful.

    Whunter this would certainly have 'been noticed' throughout history. Your 1% figure is based on something floating around in December. Despite massive lockdowns, Italy has a current mortality rate of 8.3%. The UK is 4.4%.

    We're anticipating a surge in the UK over the next two to three weeks, especially as a result of the laissez-faire DIY homestay policy of Johnson's Gov't.
  • whunterwhunter Posts: 60
    https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/coronavirus-urgent-appeal-for-brits-to-work-on-farms?fbclid=IwAR3ffIXgPH3CdLIK1JiwiDDVn8Shed8jlswPhkRpLSSSM4ANhMh5F59ZiSE

    "Coronavirus: Urgent appeal for Brits to work on farms

    Industry leaders have issued an urgent plea for British people to work on farms and help feed the nation amid a burgeoning labour shortage due to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Some 70,000 seasonal workers are usually required annually on British farms – with many coming from overseas. But travel restrictions and tighter border controls are having a significant effect on the number of people able to travel to the UK...."

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Nigelb said:

    Bad news for the theory that heat will stop it.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1240839432284131328

    The theory is actually that a combination of heat AND humidity will significantly inhibit it.
    I am sure that this is at least partly due to air conditioning. Heat cannot stop the virus if it is being spread and preserved in air conditioning ducts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    Waves!

    Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?

    South Western Railway *
    Sky Sports
    Arsenal tickets
    Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
    Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
    Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing

    * I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.

    Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.

    So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
    Yes, but it’s the small firms that have the emergency, that risk going bankrupt, and in many cases have people’s homes secured on the business loan. Helicopter money would keep these people afloat.

    Further, helicopter money would allow many larger companies - and indeed smaller ones - to reduce their costs by temporarily laying off staff, without having to put them on (or below) the breadline.

    The supertax would simply take the money that those earning simply aren’t spending. The usual arguments about incentives and taxation don’t apply since no-one is taking business risks right now and we all have an incentive to keep our businesses large and small above water.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Almost finished Alison Weir's Lancaster and York. Hadn't read much at all about the Wars of the Roses beforehand, and I'm finding it rather enjoyable.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Greetings all. Can't really say 'good morning', can one! And our colleague Casino Royale's predicament, of significantly reduced income, is one which others share, although of course that doesn't make it any easier. However, I do agree with Mr Ace, at 6.37am; if the service isn't being provided, why pay for it?
    Is that the only nursery locally?

    On a more positive note, Mrs C had an excellent meal last, delivered from the pub where we would normally have gone, and the wine, since it was rom my stock, was at off-licence price, not pub!
    Delivery service is new.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited March 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Blimey.
    Never thought I’d approve a complimentary tweet about Tucker Carlson...
    https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1240066167256973312

    Are we now in the novel situation of the GOP damaging the Trump brand?

    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1240806440379371521?s=20
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    Kicourse and Rochdale - totally right.

    It baffles me that I still hear people saying Johnson is doing well. He's goddamawful.

    Whunter this would certainly have 'been noticed' throughout history. Your 1% figure is based on something floating around in December. Despite massive lockdowns, Italy has a current mortality rate of 8.3%. The UK is 4.4%.

    We're anticipating a surge in the UK over the next two to three weeks, especially as a result of the laissez-faire DIY homestay policy of Johnson's Gov't.

    Tbf the 1% was a percentage of the whole population. Deaths in Italy so far are a fraction of a percent. I would be surprised if they ended up much over 1% which would mean 600000 deaths
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    kicorse said:

    There's utter exasperation among teachers about the way the schools closure is being handled:

    "This is how the government runs things...

    Announce that all schools are closing but announce that some children - no-one knows who - will be still going to some school or another, in two days time.

    Omit to tell anyone WHO that applies to then leave the announcement until the following day. Promise the information on that day.

    Break their promise almost immediately - just about the only thing they've done in a timely fashion - and release it early in the morning on the day the school is closing!

    We are now having a remote SLT meeting that started at 5:30 in the morning."

    This after weeks of saying that schools wouldn't need to be closed for various bizarre reasons (children might not be major vectors; we need to develop herd-immunity). It's clear that, during those weeks, the government did not plan what any eventual closure would look like.

    Unfortunately, with our partisan politics, generic Tory-bashing doesn't get distinguished from misdeeds which should make everyone furious.

    We desperately need competence at the top.

    I’ve just read the advice, and they have forgotten something.

    They have forgotten to say what age groups it applies to.

    Are 18 year olds whose parents are key workers included or not? Common sense would say not. Common sense, Cummings and Johnson have never been friends.

    Are 16 year olds? Again, common sense, but...

    If that’s not clarified within two hours, we have carnage on our hands.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Reading the thread it seems a lot of people on here who normally talk about their huge incomes , expensive properties and extravagant lifestyles are having to contemplate serious sacrifices. The kind of crisis we are in means difficult decisions and prioritising of needs. One way or another we all will have to pay something for that. The whole is more important for the part. Almost the end of our first week of complete lockdown here in Spain. It's shit and it's crap - it is what it is. Number one priority is staying healthy and safe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    I have also just seen this statement from the Northern Irish Executive:

    ‘Mr Weir said the system that would be used to award grades would be "a combination of prior achievements, internal assessments, predicted grades, analysis and modelling of existing data trends to provide the necessary assurance about the robustness, accuracy and fairness of the grades awarded".’

    We really are dealing with a bunch of idiots. If he tried to use ALL of those, it will tell him precisely nothing, because so much of the data would cancel itself out. It will lead to a confused, contradictory mess that will help nobody at all. It will also be a a nightmare to administer, far more difficult than processing 20% special considerations.

    So, it is not just Johnson.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I’ve been thinking this for a while. Why not designate an area/region of the country for the elderly and vulnerable to relocate to that is kept in 100% quarantine, whilst the rest of the country gets in with its lives? Pretty extraordinary thing to do, but so is keeping the whole country on lockdown.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Regarding schools and key workers...

    My daughter's school will be "supervising" the children of any key workers who require such a service whilst they do the work their classmates are expected to do at home. It's a secondary school, so I would imagine only the parents of younger children would be likely to take up this offer.

    In theory, the pupils are going to be given five hours of online schoolwork to do per day. Even the PE department are supposedly going to be setting work. We'll see how it goes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    Waves!

    Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?

    South Western Railway *
    Sky Sports
    Arsenal tickets
    Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
    Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
    Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing

    * I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.

    Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.

    So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
    None of this is fine, from the car plants and airlines which are for now shut down, to the self employed person whose income has, for now, disappeared.

    What is for certain is that the economy cannot sustain eighteen months of this.
    Do you really want the tax payer to bail out Mesut Ozil?
    Helicopter money direct to adults resolves this problem (Ok Ozil would get 15-45 mins wages depending on the generosity of the UBI, we can cope with that).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I’ve been thinking this for a while. Why not designate an area/region of the country for the elderly and vulnerable to relocate to that is kept in 100% quarantine, whilst the rest of the country gets in with its lives? Pretty extraordinary thing to do, but so is keeping the whole country on lockdown.
    I'm the very unlikely event that Coronavirus continues unperturbed, it may happen. Isle of Wight? Either that or we'll just have to let it rip and let the chips fall where they may.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    Waves!

    Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?

    South Western Railway *
    Sky Sports
    Arsenal tickets
    Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
    Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
    Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing

    * I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.

    Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.

    So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
    Yes, but it’s the small firms that have the emergency, that risk going bankrupt, and in many cases have people’s homes secured on the business loan. Helicopter money would keep these people afloat.

    Further, helicopter money would allow many larger companies - and indeed smaller ones - to reduce their costs by temporarily laying off staff, without having to put them on (or below) the breadline.

    The supertax would simply take the money that those earning simply aren’t spending. The usual arguments about incentives and taxation don’t apply since no-one is taking business risks right now and we all have an incentive to keep our businesses large and small above water.
    The key factor for a company surviving wont be size but the ability to run for a quarter with zero income, possibly longer. The proportion of big businesses going bankrupt under current plans will also be massive.

    It will create mass unemployment not seen in the UK since at least the early 80s and probably a fair bit beyond that. We are promised whatever it takes. Make it so.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Dura_Ace said:



    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.

    Why do you have to keep paying the nursery if you're at home looking after the kid?
    That's their policy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    whunter said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
    I am really sorry to read this. I am not sure what I would do in this situation, other than to priortise my own solvency over that of my childs nursery.

    When all is said and done this disease would have gone unnoticed for much of human history, rightly or wrongly.

    To take a crudely rationalist perspective, the harmful effects of a die off of >1% of the population, are far less than widespread social, political and economic collapse which could well now occur.

    On the other hand, the situation perhaps reveals that our social, political and economic model is totally screwed and fails the most basic stress testing.

    This is something that we all perhaps suspected, but lived in denial of. Unless the crisis is sufficiently serious, it won't be something that we confront.

    Thanks for your kind words.

    I've told them I'll pay them full whack for as long as I'm receiving a full salary, but that this might not be sustainable.

    If my income falls I'll reduce payments to them proportionately as well.
  • JIMathsJIMaths Posts: 7
    ydoethur said:

    I have also just seen this statement from the Northern Irish Executive:

    ‘Mr Weir said the system that would be used to award grades would be "a combination of prior achievements, internal assessments, predicted grades, analysis and modelling of existing data trends to provide the necessary assurance about the robustness, accuracy and fairness of the grades awarded".’

    We really are dealing with a bunch of idiots. If he tried to use ALL of those, it will tell him precisely nothing, because so much of the data would cancel itself out. It will lead to a confused, contradictory mess that will help nobody at all. It will also be a a nightmare to administer, far more difficult than processing 20% special considerations.

    So, it is not just Johnson.

    The impact on the exam year groups is really terrible - it's not going to go away in September, either, as next year we'll have a whole cohort of new sixth formers who, with the best will in the world, will not have been working particularly hard for at least six months, and the same at university. If we are really serious at cancelling exams then this is a great opportunity to properly think about moving away from the rather absurd Sepember-September school system: sit the exams in the autumn and have January-January terms for schools and universities.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2020

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
    How will your employer know you are doing childcare? Do they have cameras in your home? Seems like an unfair, unreasonable policy designed to cut costs indirectly rather than benefit support staff of the business. Something to take with a pinch of salt.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
    How will your employer know you are doing childcare? Do they have cameras in your home?
    No. But my problem is I'm too honest.

    I've made clear the situation and it's implications. I can probably bill at 60% to the client rather than 100% (based on value add) but the support I expected from my employer isn't forthcoming.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited March 2020

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
    How will your employer know you are doing childcare? Do they have cameras in your home?
    No. But my problem is I'm too honest.

    I've made clear the situation and it's implications. I can probably bill at 60% to the client rather than 100% (based on value add) but the support I expected from my employer isn't forthcoming.
    Are they honest?

    You can only do your best under these difficult circumstances. Employers who expect nothing to change and for productivity to carry on unaffected are unrealistic. Childcare is no argument to dock your pay. You should safely ignore it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:

    The Oxford vaccine effort aims to short circuit the regulatory process and have a significant scale trial of its vaccine this summer:
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/19/uk-drive-develop-coronavirus-vaccine-science

    I hope government is committed now to fund/subsidise bulk manufacturing production. It will cost tens of millions, but that is nothing in the big scheme of things.

    I'm all for scientists piling into this with Gov't support.

    However, here's a cautionary reminder of what can go wrong in drug trials even when the boffins are convinced they've found the winning formula:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22556736
    Absolutely.
    That was, of course, at the time a very novel drug, mucking around with the immune system in a then untried manner - whereas the particular vaccine approach being attempted here is tried and tested.
    That said, there are still major uncertainties. The principal one is whether the vaccine is effective or not. There is also the possible danger of ADE, though that is considerably less likely (this strain of the coronavirus seems to do some odd things to the immune system, so it's not impossible).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    There are a *lot* of people on the key workers list. More utter confusion for families and children and teachers in the few days inbetween announcing "all schools are closing" and the reality that "most schools aren't closing"

    My industry and our business are counted as essential (good). I however am working from home for the duration so I don't think my job is. My wife is a student teachimgassistamt weeks away from graduation. Her school have ask3d her to report as normal on Monday. So we could send our kids to school. Is the schooling being provided normal school or glorified childcare?

    Glorified childcare; that is one thing that seems quite clear for now.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Live football on BT Sport1!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    They don't do that in normal times when people awash with cash don't help the poor , why would it suddenly be a priority. A handful of people in this country could pick up the bills for many months and not even notice the difference, however I bet they will be the ones clamouring for handouts, ie Branson , and most likely the ones to get them. All these morons at the top have no understanding of poverty hence why the great ideas they come up with usually only help people like themselves who are loaded.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I’ve been thinking this for a while. Why not designate an area/region of the country for the elderly and vulnerable to relocate to that is kept in 100% quarantine, whilst the rest of the country gets in with its lives? Pretty extraordinary thing to do, but so is keeping the whole country on lockdown.
    Put us all in centreparcs , free facilities , meals etc, could suffer that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    JIMaths said:

    ydoethur said:

    I have also just seen this statement from the Northern Irish Executive:

    ‘Mr Weir said the system that would be used to award grades would be "a combination of prior achievements, internal assessments, predicted grades, analysis and modelling of existing data trends to provide the necessary assurance about the robustness, accuracy and fairness of the grades awarded".’

    We really are dealing with a bunch of idiots. If he tried to use ALL of those, it will tell him precisely nothing, because so much of the data would cancel itself out. It will lead to a confused, contradictory mess that will help nobody at all. It will also be a a nightmare to administer, far more difficult than processing 20% special considerations.

    So, it is not just Johnson.

    The impact on the exam year groups is really terrible - it's not going to go away in September, either, as next year we'll have a whole cohort of new sixth formers who, with the best will in the world, will not have been working particularly hard for at least six months, and the same at university. If we are really serious at cancelling exams then this is a great opportunity to properly think about moving away from the rather absurd Sepember-September school system: sit the exams in the autumn and have January-January terms for schools and universities.
    I suggested that yesterday. too. It certainly seems that some universities are considering putting back this year's final year exams to September already.
    Any reason not to adopt it ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The key is keeping people in paid work. Then they can return to spending when the crisis is over.

    Businesses should be offered grants based on last declared turnover and contingent on no dismissals within the next twelve months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
    How will your employer know you are doing childcare? Do they have cameras in your home?
    No. But my problem is I'm too honest.

    I've made clear the situation and it's implications. I can probably bill at 60% to the client rather than 100% (based on value add) but the support I expected from my employer isn't forthcoming.
    Good luck, Casino.
    Many of us will be in different but comparable boats. My business can (probably) weather a couple of months or so, but beyond that it all looks rather uncertain...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    felix said:

    Reading the thread it seems a lot of people on here who normally talk about their huge incomes , expensive properties and extravagant lifestyles are having to contemplate serious sacrifices. The kind of crisis we are in means difficult decisions and prioritising of needs. One way or another we all will have to pay something for that. The whole is more important for the part. Almost the end of our first week of complete lockdown here in Spain. It's shit and it's crap - it is what it is. Number one priority is staying healthy and safe.

    Yes and for many there was no thought of sharing largesse up until now when they are rudely ripped out of their cosy lifestyle that they imagined could never change. Tories are now going to experience what normal life is like for many people all the time and maybe in future they will have some sympathy for people who have had bad luck in life etc often through no fault of their own..
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    Waves!

    Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?

    South Western Railway *
    Sky Sports
    Arsenal tickets
    Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
    Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
    Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing

    * I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.

    Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.

    So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
    None of this is fine, from the car plants and airlines which are for now shut down, to the self employed person whose income has, for now, disappeared.

    What is for certain is that the economy cannot sustain eighteen months of this.
    Do you really want the tax payer to bail out Mesut Ozil?
    Helicopter money direct to adults resolves this problem (Ok Ozil would get 15-45 mins wages depending on the generosity of the UBI, we can cope with that).
    Ah, that's different to what was being talked about earlier. Helicopter money won't be spent on things that people don't need/want right now. Businesses will still go under.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    A New Jersey Italian-American family has lost a mother and three adult children to Corona with another two members in critical condition and another stable, surely the worst story so far. Nineteen other members of the wider family are awaiting results. And they must have been infected during the period when the US wasn't set up to be testing and tracing.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,703
    edited March 2020
    Dura_Ace said:



    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.

    Why do you have to keep paying the nursery if you're at home looking after the kid?
    Because many business owners are absolute *expletives deleted*
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    What absolute bollox, not everyone on stable incomes is down the pub on the razz every night or fancy foreign trips, your average Joe is just managing to pay their mortgage, keep a car on the road and if lucky have a cheap holiday, only difference now is they may not have to add to credit cards to survive. One can only assume you are loaded and have no concept of most people's lives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).



    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I’ve been thinking this for a while. Why not designate an area/region of the country for the elderly and vulnerable to relocate to that is kept in 100% quarantine, whilst the rest of the country gets in with its lives? Pretty extraordinary thing to do, but so is keeping the whole country on lockdown.
    Its not really practical, is it? Delivery services in areas of the country with large numbers of people are already close to collapse - lots who were happy to do their own shopping and collect their own prescriptions are now trying to have these delivered. Plus the additional burden on social care and home visits. Having more elderly and vulnerable people in one place is the last thing they need, not to mention the minor logistical matter of getting them there and accommodating them all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Dura_Ace said:



    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.

    Why do you have to keep paying the nursery if you're at home looking after the kid?
    Because many business owners are absolute *expletives deleted*
    Presumably a nursery will play the "do you still want to be able to send your child here once it's all over" card.

    If Arsenal try that tactic with me when it comes to renewing my season ticket in May, I'll tell them where to go!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Perhaps expecting a shitstorm?,
    or are they just taking the piss?

    I'm here all week...hopefully...
  • Nigelb said:

    There are a *lot* of people on the key workers list. More utter confusion for families and children and teachers in the few days inbetween announcing "all schools are closing" and the reality that "most schools aren't closing"

    My industry and our business are counted as essential (good). I however am working from home for the duration so I don't think my job is. My wife is a student teachimgassistamt weeks away from graduation. Her school have ask3d her to report as normal on Monday. So we could send our kids to school. Is the schooling being provided normal school or glorified childcare?

    Glorified childcare; that is one thing that seems quite clear for now.
    We've put an emergency timetable in place for Year 7-11 students who are in school, Y12/13 lessons are as normal, with work set online for those not attending in person.

    So, as close to normal as we can manage. What we don't yet know is how many students we will have in school. God knows how Primary schools will cope.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Dura_Ace said:



    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.

    Why do you have to keep paying the nursery if you're at home looking after the kid?
    Because many business owners are absolute *expletives deleted*
    Wanting to pay your staff is an expletive? It's an evolving situation but that's noble not expletive. That's why the government needs to make up lost revenues if they're ordering the closure or the staff can't be paid.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    kamski said:

    Kicourse and Rochdale - totally right.

    It baffles me that I still hear people saying Johnson is doing well. He's goddamawful.

    Whunter this would certainly have 'been noticed' throughout history. Your 1% figure is based on something floating around in December. Despite massive lockdowns, Italy has a current mortality rate of 8.3%. The UK is 4.4%.

    We're anticipating a surge in the UK over the next two to three weeks, especially as a result of the laissez-faire DIY homestay policy of Johnson's Gov't.

    Tbf the 1% was a percentage of the whole population. Deaths in Italy so far are a fraction of a percent. I would be surprised if they ended up much over 1% which would mean 600000 deaths
    Is it not also the case that the numbers they throw out are basically guesses as they don't have a clue how many really have it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I'm seeing reports that if one parent is a key worker then children are eligible to go to school, they don't both have to be. Is that confirmed?

    I'm not a key worker but my wife is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    malcolmg said:

    kamski said:

    Kicourse and Rochdale - totally right.

    It baffles me that I still hear people saying Johnson is doing well. He's goddamawful.

    Whunter this would certainly have 'been noticed' throughout history. Your 1% figure is based on something floating around in December. Despite massive lockdowns, Italy has a current mortality rate of 8.3%. The UK is 4.4%.

    We're anticipating a surge in the UK over the next two to three weeks, especially as a result of the laissez-faire DIY homestay policy of Johnson's Gov't.

    Tbf the 1% was a percentage of the whole population. Deaths in Italy so far are a fraction of a percent. I would be surprised if they ended up much over 1% which would mean 600000 deaths
    Is it not also the case that the numbers they throw out are basically guesses as they don't have a clue how many really have it.
    The antibody test spoken of by Hancock last night should be able to give a better idea of the true level of past exposure. Hopefully rolled out quickly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2020

    I'm seeing reports that if one parent is a key worker then children are eligible to go to school, they don't both have to be. Is that confirmed?

    I'm not a key worker but my wife is.

    That's what I heard on R4 twenty minutes ago - EDIT - just repeated on R4 headlines.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-maintaining-educational-provision/guidance-for-schools-colleges-and-local-authorities-on-maintaining-educational-provision
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    I'm seeing reports that if one parent is a key worker then children are eligible to go to school, they don't both have to be. Is that confirmed?

    I'm not a key worker but my wife is.

    Said that's the case on R4 this am..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    I see Nationwide travel insurance (the one you get with the bank account) is now excluding Corona claims from all trips booked from Wednesday onwards.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    tlg86 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.

    Why do you have to keep paying the nursery if you're at home looking after the kid?
    Because many business owners are absolute *expletives deleted*
    Presumably a nursery will play the "do you still want to be able to send your child here once it's all over" card.

    If Arsenal try that tactic with me when it comes to renewing my season ticket in May, I'll tell them where to go!
    I shall keep paying my Direct Debit for LCFC.
    I want to still have a club after the all clear. Our owners are rich, but make their money via a SE Asia duty free empire.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
    How will your employer know you are doing childcare? Do they have cameras in your home?
    No. But my problem is I'm too honest.

    I've made clear the situation and it's implications. I can probably bill at 60% to the client rather than 100% (based on value add) but the support I expected from my employer isn't forthcoming.
    Does your job require you to be with client at all times , if you can work at home or elsewhere, obviously depends on what you actually have to do.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Foxy said:

    Perhaps expecting a shitstorm?,
    or are they just taking the piss?

    I'm here all week...hopefully...
    Or perhaps the shit has hit the fan?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited March 2020

    I'm seeing reports that if one parent is a key worker then children are eligible to go to school, they don't both have to be. Is that confirmed?

    I'm not a key worker but my wife is.

    Yes, that is current policy. So your children qualify. Whether that means they HAVE to be in school has not been clarified.

    I am very unusually posting from school using data. This situation is chaotic. Clearly there has been no planning and no thought given to what to do. They are sound bites that have not been analysed. It is going to get worse. 50/50 Williamson and indeed his Scottish, Welsh and NIrish counterparts are forced to resign within the week.

    Edit - I don’t mean my school has not planned. We have several, for different scenarios. But because the government is so incoherent right now we don’t know which one to use.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    kamski said:

    Kicourse and Rochdale - totally right.

    It baffles me that I still hear people saying Johnson is doing well. He's goddamawful.

    Whunter this would certainly have 'been noticed' throughout history. Your 1% figure is based on something floating around in December. Despite massive lockdowns, Italy has a current mortality rate of 8.3%. The UK is 4.4%.

    We're anticipating a surge in the UK over the next two to three weeks, especially as a result of the laissez-faire DIY homestay policy of Johnson's Gov't.

    Tbf the 1% was a percentage of the whole population. Deaths in Italy so far are a fraction of a percent. I would be surprised if they ended up much over 1% which would mean 600000 deaths
    Is it not also the case that the numbers they throw out are basically guesses as they don't have a clue how many really have it.
    The antibody test spoken of by Hancock last night should be able to give a better idea of the true level of past exposure. Hopefully rolled out quickly.
    Not sure whether they were just being hopeful with last night's press conference, or whether they wanted to save some good news for Friday.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    People lucky enough to have stable incomes aren’t spending. If you are in isolation then meals out, trips away, home improvements, drinks down the pub, all are knocked on the head. Economically it would seem possible to introduce a temporary supertax to take the income that earners would otherwise have been saving and redistribute it as helicopter money, or some kind of negative tax or Ni, to keep everyone afloat.

    What absolute bollox, not everyone on stable incomes is down the pub on the razz every night or fancy foreign trips, your average Joe is just managing to pay their mortgage, keep a car on the road and if lucky have a cheap holiday, only difference now is they may not have to add to credit cards to survive. One can only assume you are loaded and have no concept of most people's lives.
    I thought you were the one with £millions ;)

    I am not sure you are understanding. Everyone would get the helicopter money right away, to keep things simple. Whereas the extra tax would fall progressively on those maintaining most income. If you are net worse off in that scenario then you are relatively in a pretty good position.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    whunter said:

    https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/coronavirus-urgent-appeal-for-brits-to-work-on-farms?fbclid=IwAR3ffIXgPH3CdLIK1JiwiDDVn8Shed8jlswPhkRpLSSSM4ANhMh5F59ZiSE

    "Coronavirus: Urgent appeal for Brits to work on farms

    Industry leaders have issued an urgent plea for British people to work on farms and help feed the nation amid a burgeoning labour shortage due to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Some 70,000 seasonal workers are usually required annually on British farms – with many coming from overseas. But travel restrictions and tighter border controls are having a significant effect on the number of people able to travel to the UK...."

    Army can pick strawberries?
  • On paper my wife and I are both key workers. However her role is likely to be cut back to a few hours a day and I now WFH. As the idea is to stop the spread of this I am minded to keep the kids off- government advice does say if you are a key worker "and you cannot keep your children safe at home". I can.

    Not exactly clear is it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    After my "scoop and run" to pick up Fox jr in London last night, I am off for the weekend to the Isle of Wight to check on elderly family. My Trust is not yet cancelling Annual Leave, though Study and Professional Leave has been cancelled, unless COVID19 related. The view is that staff will need respite breaks so as to not burn out. Voluntary cancellations are being agreed, as many cannot travel due to flights.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    kamski said:

    whunter said:

    https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/coronavirus-urgent-appeal-for-brits-to-work-on-farms?fbclid=IwAR3ffIXgPH3CdLIK1JiwiDDVn8Shed8jlswPhkRpLSSSM4ANhMh5F59ZiSE

    "Coronavirus: Urgent appeal for Brits to work on farms

    Industry leaders have issued an urgent plea for British people to work on farms and help feed the nation amid a burgeoning labour shortage due to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Some 70,000 seasonal workers are usually required annually on British farms – with many coming from overseas. But travel restrictions and tighter border controls are having a significant effect on the number of people able to travel to the UK...."

    Army can pick strawberries?
    Or maybe just people that need jobs? Apparently there are quite a few...
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Nigelb said:

    Coronavirus: ‘If you can’t work, what do you do?’
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51969192#
    Self-employed people say they are deeply worried about how they will survive with no income due to the impact of the coronavirus, after discovering the financial measures announced by the UK government on Tuesday do not apply to them.
    "It made me feel as if I wasn't of any importance," says Cathy Wassell, a freelance digital marketing agency owner based in Stratford-Upon-Avon who has run three businesses from home over the last 17 years.
    "I watched the chancellor's speech but it was glaringly obvious that there was no help for self-employed people in those packages at all."
    According to the Office for National Statistics, there are five million self-employed people in the UK, who make up 15% of the labour market.
    Many self-employed workers have told the BBC their income has dropped to zero, and they do not know how they will be able to pay their bills
    ....

    HYUFD mode: "They can just get loans and increase them every week until it's all over. No need to worry."

    Everyone else:

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, first!

    Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.

    “My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
    the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
    has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
    disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
    overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.

    In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
    keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).

    If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
    mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.

    Continue to August and its curtains for us.

    I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
    owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.

    My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
    taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
    idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
    guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.

    Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
    on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
    surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
    people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
    be about 100 people losing their jobs.

    Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
    grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.

    Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
    revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
    craters I don't know.

    I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
    that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
    work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
    crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”

    I quote agree, particularly the last bullet.

    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
    That's really cheeky from the nursery. Hopefully today will bring some relief for everyone. I also hope there's something for self employed people, so far they've only talked about employees, but there's millions of people who are self employed and the government seems to have forgotten about them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited March 2020
    Please, therefore, follow these key principles:

    1. If it is at all possible for children to be at home, then they should be.

    2. If a child needs specialist support, is vulnerable or has a parent who is a critical worker, then educational provision will be available for them.

    3. Parents should not rely for childcare upon those who are advised to be in the stringent social distancing category such as grandparents, friends, or family members with underlying conditions.

    3. Parents should also do everything they can to ensure children are not mixing socially in a way which can continue to spread the virus. They should observe the same social distancing principles as adults.

    4. Residential special schools, boarding schools and special settings continue to care for children wherever possible.

    5. If your work is critical to the COVID-19 response, or you work in one of the critical sectors listed below, and you cannot keep your child safe at home then your children will be prioritised for education provision:


    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-maintaining-educational-provision/guidance-for-schools-colleges-and-local-authorities-on-maintaining-educational-provision

    emphasis added
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 431
    whunter said:

    https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/coronavirus-urgent-appeal-for-brits-to-work-on-farms?fbclid=IwAR3ffIXgPH3CdLIK1JiwiDDVn8Shed8jlswPhkRpLSSSM4ANhMh5F59ZiSE

    "Coronavirus: Urgent appeal for Brits to work on farms

    Industry leaders have issued an urgent plea for British people to work on farms and help feed the nation amid a burgeoning labour shortage due to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Some 70,000 seasonal workers are usually required annually on British farms – with many coming from overseas. But travel restrictions and tighter border controls are having a significant effect on the number of people able to travel to the UK...."

    Rather than the loans that small business owners say are useless to them, maybe the government could pay (part of) the salary of small business workers if they do emergency work like this instead of their (now much less needed) ordinary work?

    Lots of problems to overcome with that idea, I'm sure, but again, it's something that the government could have been planning well over a month ago.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Morning all, I see that the Daily Star has nailed it this morning with the pallet of luxury arse wipe being delivered to Bozo.

    Do as I say, not as I do.

    Meanwhile our Abel & Cole delivery has already arrived. Enough fresh food to last us a week.
  • It appears that most people are key workers. We're going to have to build more schools to fit all the kids in!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    IanB2 said:

    I see Nationwide travel insurance (the one you get with the bank account) is now excluding Corona claims from all trips booked from Wednesday onwards.

    I think that's fair. Anyone who books now is doing so eyes open.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Greetings all. Can't really say 'good morning', can one! And our colleague Casino Royale's predicament, of significantly reduced income, is one which others share, although of course that doesn't make it any easier. However, I do agree with Mr Ace, at 6.37am; if the service isn't being provided, why pay for it?
    Is that the only nursery locally?

    On a more positive note, Mrs C had an excellent meal last, delivered from the pub where we would normally have gone, and the wine, since it was rom my stock, was at off-licence price, not pub!
    Delivery service is new.

    While I admire your desire to support local businesses, I would be careful eating anything that has not been prepared at home unless you can be absolutely sure of the hygiene of both catering and delivery staff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I see Nationwide travel insurance (the one you get with the bank account) is now excluding Corona claims from all trips booked from Wednesday onwards.

    I think that's fair. Anyone who books now is doing so eyes open.
    For sure, if you book now. But as and when the pandemic recedes, it is likely - judging from previous viruses - to survive in pockets and recur, leaving a hole in the cover.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Looks like a bit of over-ordering by Wor Lass. We've got 4kg of carrots! Just as well I like carrot juice.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.

    We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.

    Why do you have to keep paying the nursery if you're at home looking after the kid?
    Because many business owners are absolute *expletives deleted*
    Presumably a nursery will play the "do you still want to be able to send your child here once it's all over" card.

    If Arsenal try that tactic with me when it comes to renewing my season ticket in May, I'll tell them where to go!
    I shall keep paying my Direct Debit for LCFC.
    I want to still have a club after the all clear. Our owners are rich, but make their money via a SE Asia duty free empire.
    Whilst I don’t have any particular dislike for Stan Kroenke, I know that Arsenal will survive even if he goes under (see Liverpool and their previous owners). The same applies to Leicester, but I can understand you having sympathy for your owners.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    edited March 2020
    I'm going to be socially-distanced in a house on my own with a phone and a PC for 12 weeks. But shops close by when necessary and an Estate and lots of old filing to process.

    Will be trying to limit exposure to the net, using it to get back in touch with some people, and learning to garden now that the weather turned.

    The time was planned to rebuild a social life, which is now up in smoke. Dancing shut till autumn. U3A suspended. Volunteering opportunities vanished.

    But shops within walking distance when needed, and friends offering to help.

    Did it for 7-8 week Dec-Feb with just 4 or 5 trips out. Can do it again.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 48
    Morning all. It is awful to hear of these stories of the way the virus is causing stress and loss for people. The government clearly needs to act on the financial package it is offering and fast. These are not normal times, and it needs something extraordinary.

    I do though want to say something that may be slightly controversial. In short, we need to remember that governments are, ultimately, just made up of people like us all. Politicians, yes, civil servants also, all making decisions at pace under extraordinary stress. This will mean contradictory advice and false starts at times, a lack of necessary detail; and that sadly can cause real harm.

    We can question whether sufficient preparations were in place - although there are, I think, limits to how much you can prepare at a very granular level of detail for every possible future scenario. We should also critique when they get things wrong; that keeps our government responsive. We should also flag up when ideology and poor values are clouding decision-making.

    But, I think also need to remember how rapidly the situation is developing; the absolutely huge number of decisions that need making and at pace; and remember that our political leaders are just one, very small part, of a wider governance system.

    In short, our leaders are not and should not be beyond criticism; but they are ultimately humans, flaws and all.
This discussion has been closed.