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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos MORI polling finds that we’re struggling to remain positive

New polling just published by Ipsos-MORI gives us a good snapshot of how the Britain is coping with the coronavirus crisis. Some key details:

Read the full story here

BluestBlue

I think you'll find most people are struggling to stay negative...

Floater

BluestBlue said:

I think you'll find most people are struggling to stay negative...

Some on here seem to be managing that well.

Floater

Speaking at a press conference at in Edinburgh, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said there were 51 people in intensive care across Scotland with who have either been diagnosed with Covid-19 or are suspected to have it. She said: "It is clear that we are now seeing a rapid rise in coronavirus cases in Scotland."

Theuniondivvie

Seems odd to lump much X in with a little X; that's quite a set of parameters.

Floater

A total of 22 Scots who were suffering from coronavirus have died, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed.

Wales reported five new deaths earlier today.

The UK total will be updated when the NHS announces the figures for the UK.

MikeSmithson

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

Some people just love a crisis as we see on PB.

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

Some people just love a crisis as we see on PB.

The Earthworm in James and the Giant Peach, on realising everything was fine:

'The problem is that there is no problem.'

SandyRentool

I've just seen the very sad news on the previous thread.

Charles, may I add my condolences to you and your family.

Theuniondivvie

MikeSmithson said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

Some people just love a crisis as we see on PB.

Would the gleeful folk that see Covid 19 simultaneously destroying the EU and permanently cementing the UK Union in place be these kind of people?

felix

It is by some distance the biggest peacetime crisis most of us have ever known. I remember the AIDS crisis very well in the 80s but this dwarfs that in the sheer scale of its scale and the speed of its development. I think like many people I'm quite scared for myself and everyone else. Being confined to home is strangely both comforting and concerning, easy and difficult, real and unreal all at the same time.
No idea how and when its gonna end.

Barnesian

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ABZ said:

I think the much more interesting parliamentary meeting today (much more informative than PMQs) was the evidence of Neil Ferguson to the select committee. I do hope that his modelling is correct as it would suggest that while this will be bad the NHS will just about manage to cope.

I am rather concerned by the claim only 10% of Londoners will get it. I just can't see how that is possible, given most countries talk about 50-60-70% of people getting it.

Even if he is talking about this "season" and the big number is total over the course of the disease, still, 10% seems incredibly low.

I think he was talking about this cycle, which he expects to peak in the next two to three weeks.
Clearly there are likely to be more cycles.

It would be good to have his exact quote. Any links?

FrancisUrquhart

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

MarqueeMark

felix said:

It is by some distance the biggest peacetime crisis most of us have ever known. I remember the AIDS crisis very well in the 80s but this dwarfs that in the sheer scale of its scale and the speed of its development. I think like many people I'm quite scared for myself and everyone else. Being confined to home is strangely both comforting and concerning, easy and difficult, real and unreal all at the same time.
No idea how and when its gonna end.

One thing it is going to mean is that, whenever it ends, there will be a lot of people who have run through whatever savings they had.

In 2017, a quarter of UK households had less than £100 in savings.

Jeez.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-4234518/Savings-inequality-rise-gap-grows-25.html

IanB2

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

Certainly very impressive that the NHS got its requested 250,000 volunteers within the first 24 hours

MarqueeMark

eadric said:

felix said:

It is by some distance the biggest peacetime crisis most of us have ever known. I remember the AIDS crisis very well in the 80s but this dwarfs that in the sheer scale of its scale and the speed of its development. I think like many people I'm quite scared for myself and everyone else. Being confined to home is strangely both comforting and concerning, easy and difficult, real and unreal all at the same time.
No idea how and when its gonna end.

The sumptuous spring weather, all blossom and birdsong, adds to the surreal atmosphere

Also, the silence. Everywhere

The silence is going to freak people.

It's like everyone else is dead.....

IshmaelZ

eadric said:

felix said:

It is by some distance the biggest peacetime crisis most of us have ever known. I remember the AIDS crisis very well in the 80s but this dwarfs that in the sheer scale of its scale and the speed of its development. I think like many people I'm quite scared for myself and everyone else. Being confined to home is strangely both comforting and concerning, easy and difficult, real and unreal all at the same time.
No idea how and when its gonna end.

The sumptuous spring weather, all blossom and birdsong, adds to the surreal atmosphere

Also, the silence. Everywhere

“Don't you find it a beautiful clean thought, a world empty of people, just uninterrupted grass, and a hare sitting up?”

― D.H. Lawrence, Women in Love

williamglenn

Putin has announced a week-long economic shutdown of everything non-essential.

FrancisUrquhart

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

Certainly very impressive that the NHS got its requested 250,000 volunteers within the first 24 hours

Another example, my elderly folks have contacted me today to say their co-op has been ringing round the local oldie regulars asking what they need and putting aside stuff before the hamsterkauf's get in the store...and then delivering it to them.

nichomar

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

Certainly very impressive that the NHS got its requested 250,000 volunteers within the first 24 hours

Not that surprising not only are they helping but they get to go out and about rather than be sat at home. So it’s win win

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

felix said:

It is by some distance the biggest peacetime crisis most of us have ever known. I remember the AIDS crisis very well in the 80s but this dwarfs that in the sheer scale of its scale and the speed of its development. I think like many people I'm quite scared for myself and everyone else. Being confined to home is strangely both comforting and concerning, easy and difficult, real and unreal all at the same time.
No idea how and when its gonna end.

The sumptuous spring weather, all blossom and birdsong, adds to the surreal atmosphere

Also, the silence. Everywhere

Not where I am, some dickheads down the road are still insisting on having their extension completed.

MarqueeMark

williamglenn said:

Putin has announced a week-long economic shutdown of everything non-essential.

I wonder how their intelligence officers are coping, not being able to visit our wonderful cathedrals?

Foss

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

Rich parents.

FrancisUrquhart

I wonder what the punishment in Russia will be for breaking the rules? I feel it might be a tad harsher than £30 fine and even doing a load of press-ups while the police beat you.

isam

https://twitter.com/asfarasdelgados/status/1242806510301982721?s=21

isam

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

felix said:

It is by some distance the biggest peacetime crisis most of us have ever known. I remember the AIDS crisis very well in the 80s but this dwarfs that in the sheer scale of its scale and the speed of its development. I think like many people I'm quite scared for myself and everyone else. Being confined to home is strangely both comforting and concerning, easy and difficult, real and unreal all at the same time.
No idea how and when its gonna end.

The sumptuous spring weather, all blossom and birdsong, adds to the surreal atmosphere

Also, the silence. Everywhere

“Don't you find it a beautiful clean thought, a world empty of people, just uninterrupted grass, and a hare sitting up?”

― D.H. Lawrence, Women in Love

https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1242794188233736193?s=21

Charles

FPT @GideonWise

GideonWise said:

Charles said:

GideonWise said:

eadric said:

We may have to add Greta to the Hall of Shame

https://twitter.com/timothydaw/status/1242783394913804288?s=21

She is a child so you try and give the benefit of the doubt but that is very poor form and I think will critically undermine her over the long term.

She's a child, but her campaign is highly professional.

Don't blame her personally, but it is redolent of the way that - at least a part of - her movement thinks

I agree. It goes some way to confirming the suspicions many have had of their motives and beliefs.

But anyway, there will be a fundamental change for globalisation and for global movement in the next few years. That might mean we get to hear less from Ms Thunberg whilst the environment improves. Win-win.

Bet you she'll be in the Swedish Cabinet by the age of 30, PM before 40, have a short an inglorious period in office, and then end up as an interfering busybody at the EU or UN.

Casino_Royale

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR are a bunch of tossers. They've alienated people by blocking ambulances, stopping people getting to work, damaging old historic buildings (such as in my town) and vandalising public property. And they're almost all highly-privileged, well-off and very middle-class self-entitled faux-dreadlocked hippie twats.

There was a sensible message to be given about the need for urgent action on climate change.

They blew it.

williamglenn

FrancisUrquhart said:

I wonder what the punishment in Russia will be for breaking the rules? I feel it might be a tad harsher than £30 fine and even doing a load of press-ups while the police beat you.

He's now announcing big tax increases on income from overseas...

isam

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Casino_Royale

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

Certainly very impressive that the NHS got its requested 250,000 volunteers within the first 24 hours

Gets you out of the house, doesn't it?

The thought of jacking in my job and working for Tesco for 6 months has crossed my mind too.

Charles

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

Haven't 3% of American respondents to one poll been decapitated though?

IshmaelZ

Charles said:

FPT @GideonWise

GideonWise said:

Charles said:

GideonWise said:

eadric said:

We may have to add Greta to the Hall of Shame

https://twitter.com/timothydaw/status/1242783394913804288?s=21

She is a child so you try and give the benefit of the doubt but that is very poor form and I think will critically undermine her over the long term.

She's a child, but her campaign is highly professional.

Don't blame her personally, but it is redolent of the way that - at least a part of - her movement thinks

I agree. It goes some way to confirming the suspicions many have had of their motives and beliefs.

But anyway, there will be a fundamental change for globalisation and for global movement in the next few years. That might mean we get to hear less from Ms Thunberg whilst the environment improves. Win-win.

Bet you she'll be in the Swedish Cabinet by the age of 30, PM before 40, have a short an inglorious period in office, and then end up as an interfering busybody at the EU or UN.

Charles - very, very sorry to hear your news, and Gideon delighted to see you back.

kicorse

This may seem trivial at the moment, but I was impressed with Boris Johnson's tribute to Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs today... "“no-one could doubt his sincerity or his determination to build a better society”. It is sad how many people either forget that, or pretend that it isn't the case, e.g. by inferring things which clearly are not true from his inept handling of anti-Semitism.

I think Labour will be much better off with a new leader, but he is obviously a decent human being.

Charles

Thank you everyone for their kind words. Too many to respond individually.

Nigelb

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ABZ said:

I think the much more interesting parliamentary meeting today (much more informative than PMQs) was the evidence of Neil Ferguson to the select committee. I do hope that his modelling is correct as it would suggest that while this will be bad the NHS will just about manage to cope.

I am rather concerned by the claim only 10% of Londoners will get it. I just can't see how that is possible, given most countries talk about 50-60-70% of people getting it.

Even if he is talking about this "season" and the big number is total over the course of the disease, still, 10% seems incredibly low.

I think he was talking about this cycle, which he expects to peak in the next two to three weeks.
Clearly there are likely to be more cycles.

It would be good to have his exact quote. Any links?

Sorry, no.
It was merely my impression, and could be wrong. Otherwise, I would agree that 10% seems a little optimistic.

kinabalu

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

It makes sense to be more positive about the future because of coronavirus if you are convinced that it will lead to a significant and permanent drop in global warming AND you think that this issue - global warming - is so important that it dwarfs all else. But apart from that group of people I can see no logic to any answer other than "I am feeling less positive about the future". Many people are going be dead or be seriously ill who otherwise would not have been either, and many many more than that are going to be impoverished. So that's a bad news story.

FrancisUrquhart

Helicopter being reloaded with money...

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1242796195136839687?s=20

DAlexander

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

The old financial system for the working poor has been terrible for decades, maybe this will usher in better times for them long term.

Nigelb

I wonder how long Sweden's policy will stay in place ?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/24/sweden-coronavirus-open-for-business/

Clearly they have some advantages in low population density, but even so.

CarlottaVance

williamglenn said:

Putin has announced a week-long economic shutdown of everything non-essential.

Strange for a country with so few cases....

Stocky

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

Not just XR. The environmental benefits of there being fewer modern humans on the planet will be being (secretly) felt by many environmental groups and members - though discussions around this will no doubt not surface until we are a long way down the road. Not wise to raise this now. I hope XR is not doing so.

Fysics_Teacher

Charles said:

Thank you everyone for their kind words. Too many to respond individually.

My condolences as well. It is difficult to know what to say at times like this.

kicorse

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

Certainly very impressive that the NHS got its requested 250,000 volunteers within the first 24 hours

And it's worth pointing out that this is in addition to people who had already set up local community support groups. It's pleasing to see the NHS state prominently that they are not seeking to replace such groups.

Many people are doing both, of course, but some of us are in work and in a community group, and have not signed up to the NHS scheme in addition.

NerysHughes

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1242796195136839687?s=20

I just don't see how any of this is going to be administered. The Government will need to be paying out between £30-40 billion next month to millions of people and the website to claim is not even set up yet.

As anyone who has tried to claim benefit knows, payments are always initially very slow. Its going to need a huge workforce in offices to do this.

kinabalu

MarqueeMark said:

The silence is going to freak people.

It's like everyone else is dead.....

I'm particularly not liking the silence. If I wanted silence I wouldn't live in London.

FrancisUrquhart

kinabalu said:

MarqueeMark said:

The silence is going to freak people.

It's like everyone else is dead.....

I'm particularly not liking the silence. If I wanted silence I wouldn't live in London.

You can't please everybody

isam

Prince Charles is isolating at Balmoral with Covid-19.

Prince Andrew is isolating at Windsor with Jennifer 14.

bigjohnowls

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

PB Tories usual over reaction

Lennon

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

Putin has announced a week-long economic shutdown of everything non-essential.

Strange for a country with so few cases....

I almost wonder if it's an excuse to not pump oil without admitting that the Saudi's have won... who knows?

Casino_Royale

Stocky said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

Not just XR. The environmental benefits of there being fewer modern humans on the planet will be being (secretly) felt by many environmental groups and members - though discussions around this will no doubt not surface until we are a long way down the road. Not wise to raise this now. I hope XR is not doing so.

I'm sure that doesn't include themselves.

Casino_Royale

FPT - on Joe Biden, I saw that interview. I didn't think it was evidence of senility. It was a slow-video link and Joe was trying hard (too hard) to be funny and flirt with a woman half his age.

That's it.

Floater

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

Putin has announced a week-long economic shutdown of everything non-essential.

Strange for a country with so few cases....

But a country with a strange spike in pneumonia cases.............

Casino_Royale

isam said:

Prince Charles is isolating at Balmoral with Covid-19.

Prince Andrew is isolating at Windsor with Jennifer 14.

Ooh.

kle4

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Not especially, but his tone was that of someone extremely pissed off. I'm sure he cannot have enjoyed hearing Boris praise him on the occasion of his imminent end as Leader of his party, knowing the occasion only occurred because Boris beat him so thoroughly, but he could have not let it get to him as much as it clearly did.

Same way Boris's tone no doubt did not match his own actual feelings at Corbyn no longer being leader, but he made the expected statement in a way which was not obviously facetious. Part of the game.

Storm in a tea cup.

FrancisUrquhart

Venezuela’s first and only state-owned communications satellite has been out of service since March 13 when a series of maneuvers left it tumbling in an unusable orbit.

https://spacenews.com/venezuelas-flagship-communications-satellite-out-of-service-and-tumbling/

tlg86

kle4 said:

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Not especially, but his tone was that of someone extremely pissed off. I'm sure he cannot have enjoyed hearing Boris praise him on the occasion of his imminent end as Leader of his party, knowing the occasion only occurred because Boris beat him so thoroughly, but he could have not let it get to him as much as it clearly did.

Same way Boris's tone no doubt did not match his own actual feelings at Corbyn no longer being leader, but he made the expected statement in a way which was not obviously facetious. Part of the game.

Storm in a tea cup.

Yes, Corbyn could have thanked Boris and said, with a smile on his face, something like "you haven't seen the last of me."

kle4

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR are a bunch of tossers. They've alienated people by blocking ambulances, stopping people getting to work, damaging old historic buildings (such as in my town) and vandalising public property. And they're almost all highly-privileged, well-off and very middle-class self-entitled faux-dreadlocked hippie twats.

There was a sensible message to be given about the need for urgent action on climate change.

They blew it.

Not blown, but they need to get a grip on their more out there elements, to avoid all of them being seen that way. At present they've avoided that, but it is no certainty.

kicorse

kle4 said:

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Not especially, but his tone was that of someone extremely pissed off. I'm sure he cannot have enjoyed hearing Boris praise him on the occasion of his imminent end as Leader of his party, knowing the occasion only occurred because Boris beat him so thoroughly, but he could have not let it get to him as much as it clearly did.

This is an extremely jaundiced view. The clip doesn't show that he first graciously thanked Johnson for his kind words, but even if you go on the clip alone, what I see there is someone who is revelling in his return to the role of a social justice campaigner - a thorn in the side of powerful people. I don't detect any bitterness there at all.

Nigelb

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - on Joe Biden, I saw that interview. I didn't think it was evidence of senility. It was a slow-video link and Joe was trying hard (too hard) to be funny and flirt with a woman half his age.

That's it.

Seems about right to me. The interviewer didn't come out particularly well, either.

isam

kle4 said:

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Not especially, but his tone was that of someone extremely pissed off. I'm sure he cannot have enjoyed hearing Boris praise him on the occasion of his imminent end as Leader of his party, knowing the occasion only occurred because Boris beat him so thoroughly, but he could have not let it get to him as much as it clearly did.

Same way Boris's tone no doubt did not match his own actual feelings at Corbyn no longer being leader, but he made the expected statement in a way which was not obviously facetious. Part of the game.

Storm in a tea cup.

Socialists are always angry and unfriendly to anyone who isn’t one of them, at least he was authentic!

Charles

Just a couple of anecdotes I thought might amuse...

Each year Mr & Mrs Quintin hosted the bank cricket match at Okewood Hill which was a big event in the bank social calendar. The occasion I have in mind was just after Tigger [my Dad] joined the Territorial Army. For some reason he was joining the match late as a consequence of walking there (from where I have no idea). Presumably as a part of his
training he had to get some miles into his boots.

Picture the scene with the match in full swing and a large crowd watching, when suddenly across the fields appeared 4 figures in single file. As they came closer it was apparent that each was wearing battle dress. Suddenly from a fielder on the boundry could be heard the Dad’s Army theme tune, which became louder and louder with not only the teams but also the spectators joining in. Tigger’s arrival; hot, flushed, and somewhat embarrassed was greeted with great applause.

***

I remember there was a children’s party on Christmas Eve, in what was then the canteen. I volunteered to dress up as Father Christmas and ended up frightening the children because I climbed in through the window and they all ran out of the room! I then drove down to Wales on Christmas morning as my mother was keen that all her children should meet up over Christmas lunch. I think it was that very cold winter in 1963 and I had an open Morgan, so I drove down the Mall, still wearing my Father Christmas costume and snowballs were being thrown from side to side over me across the road.

kle4

kicorse said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Not especially, but his tone was that of someone extremely pissed off. I'm sure he cannot have enjoyed hearing Boris praise him on the occasion of his imminent end as Leader of his party, knowing the occasion only occurred because Boris beat him so thoroughly, but he could have not let it get to him as much as it clearly did.

This is an extremely jaundiced view. The clip doesn't show that he first graciously thanked Johnson for his kind words, but even if you go on the clip alone, what I see there is someone who is revelling in his return to the role of a social justice campaigner - a thorn in the side of powerful people. I don't detect any bitterness there at all.

Opinions will differ. I've given plenty of credit to Corbyn's manners and considerate nature over the years, but he does get petulant and pissy when he is upset (whereas Boris is more of a bluster and ignore kind of guy) and that seems in keeping to me.

It's no big deal, he has every reason to be a little aggrieved to have someone he despises pay him stock tribute, it's just a little more self control would have avoided the situation completely.

DougSeal

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR are a bunch of tossers. They've alienated people by blocking ambulances, stopping people getting to work, damaging old historic buildings (such as in my town) and vandalising public property. And they're almost all highly-privileged, well-off and very middle-class self-entitled faux-dreadlocked hippie twats.

There was a sensible message to be given about the need for urgent action on climate change.

They blew it.

Not blown, but they need to get a grip on their more out there elements, to avoid all of them being seen that way. At present they've avoided that, but it is no certainty.

Me and the wife were watching the Unabomber documentary on Netflix last night. His manifesto, the one that got him caught when his sister in law recognised the style, was not dissimilar to XR. What struck me was the former warden of ADX Florence, the “Supermax” prison where he’s banged up, expressing sympathy with large parts of what the Unabomber wrote, although not the methods of publicity clearly.

Casino_Royale

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR are a bunch of tossers. They've alienated people by blocking ambulances, stopping people getting to work, damaging old historic buildings (such as in my town) and vandalising public property. And they're almost all highly-privileged, well-off and very middle-class self-entitled faux-dreadlocked hippie twats.

There was a sensible message to be given about the need for urgent action on climate change.

They blew it.

Not blown, but they need to get a grip on their more out there elements, to avoid all of them being seen that way. At present they've avoided that, but it is no certainty.

I'm afraid they haven't.

A lot of moderate people have already written them off as hippy moonbats.

Malmesbury

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR are a bunch of tossers. They've alienated people by blocking ambulances, stopping people getting to work, damaging old historic buildings (such as in my town) and vandalising public property. And they're almost all highly-privileged, well-off and very middle-class self-entitled faux-dreadlocked hippie twats.

There was a sensible message to be given about the need for urgent action on climate change.

They blew it.

Not blown, but they need to get a grip on their more out there elements, to avoid all of them being seen that way. At present they've avoided that, but it is no certainty.

The enthusiasm with which that guy was pulled off the train and beaten up indicates how many see them. No one interfered.

DecrepiterJohnL

Lennon said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

Putin has announced a week-long economic shutdown of everything non-essential.

Strange for a country with so few cases....

I almost wonder if it's an excuse to not pump oil without admitting that the Saudi's have won... who knows?

I doubt it. Apparently planes were in the air when Russia's lockdown was announced which suggests it was a very sudden decision, whereas the oil market has played out over weeks.

bigjohnowls

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Not especially, but his tone was that of someone extremely pissed off. I'm sure he cannot have enjoyed hearing Boris praise him on the occasion of his imminent end as Leader of his party, knowing the occasion only occurred because Boris beat him so thoroughly, but he could have not let it get to him as much as it clearly did.

Same way Boris's tone no doubt did not match his own actual feelings at Corbyn no longer being leader, but he made the expected statement in a way which was not obviously facetious. Part of the game.

Storm in a tea cup.

Yes, Corbyn could have thanked Boris and said, with a smile on his face, something like "you haven't seen the last of me."

that is exactly what he said ffs

CrispyRendang

I'm sure people are frustrated at the stupidity of some Brits, but I think Indonesia has you outdone....

This is in Indonesian

https://www.liputan6.com/regional/read/4207568/mengembalikan-tradisi-tolak-bala-warga-aceh-di-tengah-pandemi-covid-19

but it essentially says that people are gathering over Aceh (and in fact all over Indonesia) to perform Islamic rituals to drive out coronavirus.

"Thousands of people filled the Keude Teunom soccer stadium, Aceh Jaya Regency, to hold a grand prayer and dhikr known as Rateb Seribee or thousand dhikr on the same night. The wave of the masses was dominated by followers of Abuya Amran Waly, chairman of the Tasawuf Study Council "

"T Abdullah Sakti said that the tradition of repelling was no longer heard after the 1980s. As far as he was still carried out in the 60s when smallpox plague struck Pidie, and at that time known as meujalateh."

We had a version of this locally (not in Aceh) a parade of people carrying torches and chanting 'la ilaha illa allah'.

The fact that 1000 people caught coronavirus at a koran recital event in Malaysia in late February has passed them by.....

kle4

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR are a bunch of tossers. They've alienated people by blocking ambulances, stopping people getting to work, damaging old historic buildings (such as in my town) and vandalising public property. And they're almost all highly-privileged, well-off and very middle-class self-entitled faux-dreadlocked hippie twats.

There was a sensible message to be given about the need for urgent action on climate change.

They blew it.

Not blown, but they need to get a grip on their more out there elements, to avoid all of them being seen that way. At present they've avoided that, but it is no certainty.

I'm afraid they haven't.

A lot of moderate people have already written them off as hippy moonbats.

I think they're borderline at present. Many more incidents and it will be set, and more reasonable movements will get the useful attention, but they can prevent that. But that will mean taking a bit more control over their loonier elements, which theymight not do.

BluestBlue

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR just got every single thing they ever wanted in the space of a few months, and all they had to do was dig up a few college lawns in Oxford and Cambridge and glue themselves to Jo Swinson's bus.

Protest works, people!

bigjohnowls

Bolsorano joins Trump in the super optimism column or the cretinous disregard column in most peoples books

Malmesbury

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1242796195136839687?s=20

I just don't see how any of this is going to be administered. The Government will need to be paying out between £30-40 billion next month to millions of people and the website to claim is not even set up yet.

As anyone who has tried to claim benefit knows, payments are always initially very slow. Its going to need a huge workforce in offices to do this.

Its quite remarkable what can get done when the emphasis is on results and pointless bullshit is thrown out the window.

I always like the story - added to the book Piece of Cake - about a fighter squadron that came back from France in 1940 - lost everything apart from the planes.

They couldn't replace any of the tools, spares etc because they didn't have the forms. They couldn't get the forms, because you needed a form...

So they stole what they needed from a supply dump.

kinabalu

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

It was great to hear. Indeed I wish to post my own little tribute on this the last day (effectively) of Jeremy Corbyn. It’s a moment which IMO should be marked with generosity of spirit towards a man who, whilst not everybody’s cup of tea, has made a notable contribution to the political drama of recent years.

He never wanted to lead the party and even less did he wish to become PM. Like the National Lottery, he is all about Good Causes. A thirst for power and prestige is not in the DNA. Yet he answered the call from colleagues to stand in 2015, and when the membership offered him the LOTO baton, he took it and ran. Despite a reluctance to be “primus inter pares” – preferring “et generis paribus” - he offered himself up as The Man in not one general election but TWO. In the first of these he came closer than any socialist ever has to attaining power in modern Britain. This is perhaps his most enduring legacy. He showed that it was possible for a socialist to win a UK general election so long as the socialist was not him (an easy fix going forwards).

GE19? Still running but straight into a buzz-saw. “Get Brexit Done”. “Boris”. “Parliament versus The People.” Could any Opposition Leader have held up against that? Sadly not. You can do nothing with the Zeitgeist except submit to it. Ask John Major. So let us not dwell on this. The result looks poor but Labour DID win the argument (witness the Tory conversion to anti-Austerity) and they DID move the Overton Window (that radical manifesto can never be unwritten).

But the biggest Corbyn positive lies not in his impact on political debate, welcome though it has been, but in his persona and character. Good (progressive) causes, as noted, and a holding to principle, not self-aggrandizement and opportunism. In an era where the very idea of placing duty over desire is sniggered at, where the meaning of the term “public service” has been all but forgotten, we have had in Jeremy Corbyn a politician to remind us, and this is why all of us here on PB.com should wish him well as he exits the stage today. Regardless of our politics, we can award him the following epithet - the two little words which best sum up his career. He served.

He served his constituency, the Left in general, his party, and – yes – his country.

Thank you, Jeremy. Stay safe now.

Barnesian

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ABZ said:

I think the much more interesting parliamentary meeting today (much more informative than PMQs) was the evidence of Neil Ferguson to the select committee. I do hope that his modelling is correct as it would suggest that while this will be bad the NHS will just about manage to cope.

I am rather concerned by the claim only 10% of Londoners will get it. I just can't see how that is possible, given most countries talk about 50-60-70% of people getting it.

Even if he is talking about this "season" and the big number is total over the course of the disease, still, 10% seems incredibly low.

I think he was talking about this cycle, which he expects to peak in the next two to three weeks.
Clearly there are likely to be more cycles.

It would be good to have his exact quote. Any links?

Sorry, no.
It was merely my impression, and could be wrong. Otherwise, I would agree that 10% seems a little optimistic.

I note that Ferguson said "UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower."

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6Hi5sFgte

kicorse

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR are a bunch of tossers. They've alienated people by blocking ambulances, stopping people getting to work, damaging old historic buildings (such as in my town) and vandalising public property. And they're almost all highly-privileged, well-off and very middle-class self-entitled faux-dreadlocked hippie twats.

There was a sensible message to be given about the need for urgent action on climate change.

They blew it.

Not blown, but they need to get a grip on their more out there elements, to avoid all of them being seen that way. At present they've avoided that, but it is no certainty.

I'm afraid they haven't.

A lot of moderate people have already written them off as hippy moonbats.

I think they're borderline at present. Many more incidents and it will be set, and more reasonable movements will get the useful attention, but they can prevent that. But that will mean taking a bit more control over their loonier elements, which theymight not do.

The other thing is that they've made it clear that they don't mind if they're despised, so long as they bring about meaningful change, which is laudable.

As an expert in the field, I get very frustrated with some of the nonsense that gets spouted under the banner of XR. It's not all of them by any means, but certainly there are hypocrites and loons in the movement. And I do worry about the risk of alienating people from the issue, which so far has happened surprisingly little.

But I can't argue with their results so far. They've achieved far more than people like me have by calmly talking about the evidence. Sad but true. They are in credit at the moment.

felix

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

Certainly very impressive that the NHS got its requested 250,000 volunteers within the first 24 hours

Wow - I knew they got 150000+ - but that is extraordinary. Very uplifting. I went out for my weeklt shop today and got stopped by several burly Guardia patrols at a roundabout. Made me so nervous I stalled the car - but as soon as I said what I was doing there was a pleasant smile and I was waved on. Relieved albeit with my ego punctured a little.

FrancisUrquhart

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ABZ said:

I think the much more interesting parliamentary meeting today (much more informative than PMQs) was the evidence of Neil Ferguson to the select committee. I do hope that his modelling is correct as it would suggest that while this will be bad the NHS will just about manage to cope.

I am rather concerned by the claim only 10% of Londoners will get it. I just can't see how that is possible, given most countries talk about 50-60-70% of people getting it.

Even if he is talking about this "season" and the big number is total over the course of the disease, still, 10% seems incredibly low.

I think he was talking about this cycle, which he expects to peak in the next two to three weeks.
Clearly there are likely to be more cycles.

It would be good to have his exact quote. Any links?

Sorry, no.
It was merely my impression, and could be wrong. Otherwise, I would agree that 10% seems a little optimistic.

I note that Ferguson said "UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower."

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6Hi5sFgte

Lets hope he is right. I wonder what has caused him to revise this this downwards, especially as he said outbreak is running faster and R0 is higher.

felix

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Great news for the Tories - I'm sure Keir was thrilled to hear it as well.

logical_song

bigjohnowls said:

Bolsorano joins Trump in the super optimism column or the cretinous disregard column in most peoples books

If anybody deserved to get it, it's him.

felix

isam said:

Prince Charles is isolating at Balmoral with Covid-19.

Prince Andrew is isolating at Windsor with Jennifer 14.

Naughty - but nice!

Jonathan

kinabalu said:

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

It was great to hear. Indeed I wish to post my own little tribute on this the last day (effectively) of Jeremy Corbyn. It’s a moment which IMO should be marked with generosity of spirit towards a man who, whilst not everybody’s cup of tea, has made a notable contribution to the political drama of recent years.

He never wanted to lead the party and even less did he wish to become PM. Like the National Lottery, he is all about Good Causes. A thirst for power and prestige is not in the DNA. Yet he answered the call from colleagues to stand in 2015, and when the membership offered him the LOTO baton, he took it and ran. Despite a reluctance to be “primus inter pares” – preferring “et generis paribus” - he offered himself up as The Man in not one general election but TWO. In the first of these he came closer than any socialist ever has to attaining power in modern Britain. This is perhaps his most enduring legacy. He showed that it was possible for a socialist to win a UK general election so long as the socialist was not him (an easy fix going forwards).

GE19? Still running but straight into a buzz-saw. “Get Brexit Done”. “Boris”. “Parliament versus The People.” Could any Opposition Leader have held up against that? Sadly not. You can do nothing with the Zeitgeist except submit to it. Ask John Major. So let us not dwell on this. The result looks poor but Labour DID win the argument (witness the Tory conversion to anti-Austerity) and they DID move the Overton Window (that radical manifesto can never be unwritten).

But the biggest Corbyn positive lies not in his impact on political debate, welcome though it has been, but in his persona and character. Good (progressive) causes, as noted, and a holding to principle, not self-aggrandizement and opportunism. In an era where the very idea of placing duty over desire is sniggered at, where the meaning of the term “public service” has been all but forgotten, we have had in Jeremy Corbyn a politician to remind us, and this is why all of us here on PB.com should wish him well as he exits the stage today. Regardless of our politics, we can award him the following epithet - the two little words which best sum up his career. He served.

He served his constituency, the Left in general, his party, and – yes – his country.

Thank you, Jeremy. Stay safe now.

Corbyn motivated a lot of people to get involved in politics who otherwise would not. That is his signature achievement.

Beyond that he has no monopoly on promoting good causes, public service or good conduct. Indeed there are serious questions over both that we need not go into. Sadly the good causes he serves, the Labour Party and the country are weaker for his leadership.

A lost opportunity.

FrancisUrquhart

All those screaming at Boris for the original strategy...Chief modelling egg-head thought it was good idea,

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242761739332190209?s=20

Theuniondivvie

felix said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

Certainly very impressive that the NHS got its requested 250,000 volunteers within the first 24 hours

Wow - I knew they got 150000+ - but that is extraordinary. Very uplifting. I went out for my weeklt shop today and got stopped by several burly Guardia patrols at a roundabout. Made me so nervous I stalled the car - but as soon as I said what I was doing there was a pleasant smile and I was waved on. Relieved albeit with my ego punctured a little.

Any sign of the Spanish Army yet?

https://twitter.com/zblay/status/1241828134980399104?s=20

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242803793970020363?s=20
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242804326038462465?s=20

This isn't good though on the gold standard ones....
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242800093436227590?s=20

algarkirk

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1242796195136839687?s=20

I just don't see how any of this is going to be administered. The Government will need to be paying out between £30-40 billion next month to millions of people and the website to claim is not even set up yet.

As anyone who has tried to claim benefit knows, payments are always initially very slow. Its going to need a huge workforce in offices to do this.

Governments all discover that ideas are interesting and easy. Administering ideas is cripplingly boring and difficult, and even success in it (rare) wins no praise.

logical_song

DougSeal said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

The 3% who find it ‘easier to be positive about the future’ are clearly XR

XR are a bunch of tossers. They've alienated people by blocking ambulances, stopping people getting to work, damaging old historic buildings (such as in my town) and vandalising public property. And they're almost all highly-privileged, well-off and very middle-class self-entitled faux-dreadlocked hippie twats.

There was a sensible message to be given about the need for urgent action on climate change.

They blew it.

Not blown, but they need to get a grip on their more out there elements, to avoid all of them being seen that way. At present they've avoided that, but it is no certainty.

Me and the wife were watching the Unabomber documentary on Netflix last night. His manifesto, the one that got him caught when his sister in law recognised the style, was not dissimilar to XR. What struck me was the former warden of ADX Florence, the “Supermax” prison where he’s banged up, expressing sympathy with large parts of what the Unabomber wrote, although not the methods of publicity clearly.

Linking the Unabomber with XR is not helpful. Neither would linking him with the Paris Climate Agreement, even if some of their aims overlapped.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242803793970020363?s=20

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242804326038462465?s=20

Excellent news

Some predictable replies about 3.5 million being nowhere near the size of the population.

Gotta start somewhere, right?

felix

Theuniondivvie said:

felix said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think there are some positives to this.

We are seeing some return to community spirit (even if there a load of dickheads), companies I think will embrace a lot more WFH which is really good for families, and I think there may well be a refocus away from the absolute rock bottom price for everything is best.

Certainly very impressive that the NHS got its requested 250,000 volunteers within the first 24 hours

Wow - I knew they got 150000+ - but that is extraordinary. Very uplifting. I went out for my weeklt shop today and got stopped by several burly Guardia patrols at a roundabout. Made me so nervous I stalled the car - but as soon as I said what I was doing there was a pleasant smile and I was waved on. Relieved albeit with my ego punctured a little.

Any sign of the Spanish Army yet?

https://twitter.com/zblay/status/1241828134980399104?s=20

Yes - they've been patrolling in our area to stop wealthy Spaniards from the cities holeing up in their second homes and also supporting the Guardia. They also are pretty friendly to be fair. I expect they're as scared as the rest of us underneath the machismo.

LostPassword

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1242796195136839687?s=20

I just don't see how any of this is going to be administered. The Government will need to be paying out between £30-40 billion next month to millions of people and the website to claim is not even set up yet.

As anyone who has tried to claim benefit knows, payments are always initially very slow. Its going to need a huge workforce in offices to do this.

This is why the government should have gone for a simple system of universal basic income, paid to everyone who'd completed self-assessment, or through PAYE. Sure, they'd have ended up giving money to people who didn't need it, but instead they have a number of different systems that are slow and will end up missing lots of people.

williamglenn

logical_song said:

bigjohnowls said:

Bolsorano joins Trump in the super optimism column or the cretinous disregard column in most peoples books

If anybody deserved to get it, it's him.

Perhaps he's already had it, and that's why he's so gung ho. His initial test was positive.

FrancisUrquhart

I hope the government have an easy to use system where all the results from these anti-body tests can be recorded. Its all well and good individuals knowing, but we also need egg-head modellers to know.

Fysics_Teacher

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242803793970020363?s=20
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242804326038462465?s=20

This isn't good though on the gold standard ones....
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242800093436227590?s=20

They will need enough for at least one each. Most people in the country will have had a cold over the winter and as we have seen on here lots of people are convinced they have had it already.

One other question: can it distinguish between had it and have it?

Floater

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1242786674846978048?s=21

Not especially, but his tone was that of someone extremely pissed off. I'm sure he cannot have enjoyed hearing Boris praise him on the occasion of his imminent end as Leader of his party, knowing the occasion only occurred because Boris beat him so thoroughly, but he could have not let it get to him as much as it clearly did.

Same way Boris's tone no doubt did not match his own actual feelings at Corbyn no longer being leader, but he made the expected statement in a way which was not obviously facetious. Part of the game.

Storm in a tea cup.

Yes, Corbyn could have thanked Boris and said, with a smile on his face, something like "you haven't seen the last of me."

that is exactly what he said ffs

Tone and facial expressions ffs

NerysHughes

LostPassword said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1242796195136839687?s=20

I just don't see how any of this is going to be administered. The Government will need to be paying out between £30-40 billion next month to millions of people and the website to claim is not even set up yet.

As anyone who has tried to claim benefit knows, payments are always initially very slow. Its going to need a huge workforce in offices to do this.

This is why the government should have gone for a simple system of universal basic income, paid to everyone who'd completed self-assessment, or through PAYE. Sure, they'd have ended up giving money to people who didn't need it, but instead they have a number of different systems that are slow and will end up missing lots of people.

People are treating this as an extra paid holiday, there will be mass anger when the money does not come through.

RobD

LostPassword said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1242796195136839687?s=20

I just don't see how any of this is going to be administered. The Government will need to be paying out between £30-40 billion next month to millions of people and the website to claim is not even set up yet.

As anyone who has tried to claim benefit knows, payments are always initially very slow. Its going to need a huge workforce in offices to do this.

This is why the government should have gone for a simple system of universal basic income, paid to everyone who'd completed self-assessment, or through PAYE. Sure, they'd have ended up giving money to people who didn't need it, but instead they have a number of different systems that are slow and will end up missing lots of people.

Just how expensive would that have been? Giving everyone a grand a month would be £50bn/month, and would be less than is currently on offer.

fox327

FrancisUrquhart said:

All those screaming at Boris for the original strategy...Chief modelling egg-head thought it was good idea,

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1242761739332190209?s=20

I watched Professor Ferguson's evidence to the Health Select Committee today. He said that, with mitigation, the peak requirement for NHS ICU beds would be about 8 times the number available.

Perhaps the government should set about increasing the capacity to this level. We may need to be able to survive and cope with a single peak epidemic if there is no other way out of the current predicament. This would depend on the results of the vaccine trials taking place which may go well or badly.

Barnesian

FrancisUrquhart said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ABZ said:

I think the much more interesting parliamentary meeting today (much more informative than PMQs) was the evidence of Neil Ferguson to the select committee. I do hope that his modelling is correct as it would suggest that while this will be bad the NHS will just about manage to cope.

I am rather concerned by the claim only 10% of Londoners will get it. I just can't see how that is possible, given most countries talk about 50-60-70% of people getting it.

Even if he is talking about this "season" and the big number is total over the course of the disease, still, 10% seems incredibly low.

I think he was talking about this cycle, which he expects to peak in the next two to three weeks.
Clearly there are likely to be more cycles.

It would be good to have his exact quote. Any links?

Sorry, no.
It was merely my impression, and could be wrong. Otherwise, I would agree that 10% seems a little optimistic.

I note that Ferguson said "UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower."

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6Hi5sFgte

Lets hope he is right. I wonder what has caused him to revise this this downwards, especially as he said outbreak is running faster and R0 is higher.

The higher R0, the more widespread is the outbreak, and the lower the fatality rate given the current number of deaths. It's good news if he is right.

FrancisUrquhart

Fysics_Teacher said:

One other question: can it distinguish between had it and have it?

I haven't seen anybody answer that. Some of the private kits that supposedly based on anti-body testing that have been launched have a limitation of you can only start to use it from about day 3-4-5 of showing symptoms up to a particular period afterwards.

Whenever the egg-heads have talked about the kit they wanted, they always talked as if it was being designed simply for had had it, rather than if you do.

NerysHughes

FrancisUrquhart said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

Barnesian said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ABZ said:

I think the much more interesting parliamentary meeting today (much more informative than PMQs) was the evidence of Neil Ferguson to the select committee. I do hope that his modelling is correct as it would suggest that while this will be bad the NHS will just about manage to cope.

I am rather concerned by the claim only 10% of Londoners will get it. I just can't see how that is possible, given most countries talk about 50-60-70% of people getting it.

Even if he is talking about this "season" and the big number is total over the course of the disease, still, 10% seems incredibly low.

I think he was talking about this cycle, which he expects to peak in the next two to three weeks.
Clearly there are likely to be more cycles.

It would be good to have his exact quote. Any links?

Sorry, no.
It was merely my impression, and could be wrong. Otherwise, I would agree that 10% seems a little optimistic.

I note that Ferguson said "UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower."

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6Hi5sFgte

Lets hope he is right. I wonder what has caused him to revise this this downwards, especially as he said outbreak is running faster and R0 is higher.

The lack of people in hospital with Covid 19 at the moment ?

BluestBlue

kinabalu said:

isam said:

I don’t think it’s too bad of Jezza to say this really?

It was great to hear. Indeed I wish to post my own little tribute on this the last day (effectively) of Jeremy Corbyn. It’s a moment which IMO should be marked with generosity of spirit towards a man who, whilst not everybody’s cup of tea, has made a notable contribution to the political drama of recent years.

He never wanted to lead the party and even less did he wish to become PM. Like the National Lottery, he is all about Good Causes. A thirst for power and prestige is not in the DNA. Yet he answered the call from colleagues to stand in 2015, and when the membership offered him the LOTO baton, he took it and ran. Despite a reluctance to be “primus inter pares” – preferring “et generis paribus” - he offered himself up as The Man in not one general election but TWO. In the first of these he came closer than any socialist ever has to attaining power in modern Britain. This is perhaps his most enduring legacy. He showed that it was possible for a socialist to win a UK general election so long as the socialist was not him (an easy fix going forwards).

GE19? Still running but straight into a buzz-saw. “Get Brexit Done”. “Boris”. “Parliament versus The People.” Could any Opposition Leader have held up against that? Sadly not. You can do nothing with the Zeitgeist except submit to it. Ask John Major. So let us not dwell on this. The result looks poor but Labour DID win the argument (witness the Tory conversion to anti-Austerity) and they DID move the Overton Window (that radical manifesto can never be unwritten).

But the biggest Corbyn positive lies not in his impact on political debate, welcome though it has been, but in his persona and character. Good (progressive) causes, as noted, and a holding to principle, not self-aggrandizement and opportunism. In an era where the very idea of placing duty over desire is sniggered at, where the meaning of the term “public service” has been all but forgotten, we have had in Jeremy Corbyn a politician to remind us, and this is why all of us here on PB.com should wish him well as he exits the stage today. Regardless of our politics, we can award him the following epithet - the two little words which best sum up his career. He served.

He served his constituency, the Left in general, his party, and – yes – his country.

Thank you, Jeremy. Stay safe now.

A fine tribute. May all Labour's leaders be as awesome as Jeremy