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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, moves to 3rd favourit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, moves to 3rd favourite in the Dem nomination betting
With the coronavirus epidemic dominating the headlines almost right across the world a new name has appeared in the top three on the Betfair WH2020 Dem nomination market. He’s Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York which has the worst figures of any state in the US .
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Biden confuses me, to be honest (no difficulty there - he confuses himself too). On the one hand, I see the subdued, rambling, aged man that prompted me to predict a Sanders nomination (I think between Iowa and NH); on the other, there's a politician who has come through around a dozen primary debates, most of them as front-runner, more or less unscathed.
But if there is a vacancy, Cuomo would be a good fit for it. Team Bernie would of course do their absolute nut.
The government has gone further than it has in our history in underwriting 80% of the wages of those who have temporarily run out of work because of the CV and they have gone further than most other countries but have they gone far enough?
For me the problem ultimately is that these payments are a loan. If the company receiving the money is in a business that is likely to bounce back quickly and catch up some of the lost production because there is even more pent up demand for their business this works but for the vast majority of businesses what they are facing is a one time hit in their business which is pretty likely to be a permanent loss. How do they then repay this additional debt? There is also a significant minority of businesses, airlines, cruise companies, holiday companies generally, who are likely to take a much longer term hit and have no realistic chance of paying back debt out of reduced incomes.
I am the director of a company. We are having a board meeting this afternoon to work out what to do about our staff. We will suffer a very significant reduction in income over the next 3-4 months. After that we might recoup some of it as the courts get back to business but, frankly, the courts were pretty damn busy before this hit and have limited additional capacity to deal with a backlog. What is likely to happen is that new work will be displaced by the old not recouping what has been lost.
What do we do? Fortunately we have sufficient reserves to see us out 3-4 months, more if we can get access to government funds. My guess is that we will keep most of our staff on pretty much full wages for now but our pot of money will be depleted. How long this lasts is the key question to which there is no clear answer. If we hadn't had those reserves I am really not clear how loans would have helped. The quid pro quo for keeping staff on should be grants not loans. Otherwise unemployment will rocket.
The medic says she was "feeling pretty broken" after being evicted, but random acts of kindness since have lifted her spirits."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-doctor-evicted-from-home-due-to-landladys-fears-over-covid-19-11963799
The failure to participate until it was too late rightly did for Bloomberg. Cuomo did not participate at all. He has not earned the right and, for all their faults, Biden and Saunders have.
Trump is a global embarrassment. Surely the DNC aren't going to be bound by a half-finished contest to chose the least worst alternative to Sanders. They absolutely need to find someone who can demolish the Donald. That person is Governor Cuomo.
Capt. Trump, RMS Even Biglier Titanic: " 'Tis but a scratch! Full steam ahead!"
The real question is how soon it might actually be paid.
Now pretty clear Italy is on a trajectory for sub 20k deaths in wave 1, and the UK with the advantage of advance warning is set to be materially less than that.
The economic impacts of this, though diffuse and so easy to ignore, will have a far greater impact so one can only hope that plans are well afoot for the unwind of measures. Clearly the government can't say anything until we do hit peak without running out of capacity, but once we do they should be removing the least effective, most disruptive measures (i.e. school closures) PDQ.
https://twitter.com/AileanBeaton/status/1243161388400422913?s=20
For the record, who actually thinks whatever it takes part one is doable, delivered as promised?
(I am expecting the lefties on here to simply reply yes, and those economically right of centre and government supporters to remain largely silent)
Just - wow.
No wonder MaxPB keeps referring to parasites.
Toilet roll (own brand only) near the entrance to confuse people looking in the normal aisle; no soap (except for the £9 fancy soap I had to buy because I'm running out of the £1 stuff) or sanitiser; no paper towels, tissues or paracetamol. A 3-items per customer limit even on things I normally buy six of each week.
There are still one or two anomalies. Asking for card payments rather than cash is fine but get rid of the cardboard promotional wrap round the card reader, as customers are forced to touch it. Maybe have someone visibly cleaning card reader keyboards and trolley handles.
Another less well known candidate might rise to the challenge if allowed to do so
Over here we seem to be electing Starmer, who does not exactly glow with talent but looks like a towering statesman compared to Corbyn
That is my understanding of the choice you have.
https://twitter.com/UniteCountryPAC/status/1242792258828750850
Exactly one month ago today he was boasting about only 15 cases, that it was all nothing, and would soon be zero. Today they'll catch China on the number of cases, over 80 thousand. In a week's time, 200k.
The risks are much higher of depending on a manufacturer, who hasn't made this equipment before to productise a new design in a matter of days without testing in the field. It is sensible to mitigate that risk.
Brexit is the only reason I can see for not doing so. The government hasn't actually put forward a justification for not doing so..
Most stuff in stock, including loo rolls that I didn't need and tinned tomatoes which I did need. Plenty of meat (none last week). Still no flour (ordinary or bread) nor rice. I tried to jump the queue at checkout not realising there was a queue with the 2m gap. Embarrassed!
The jury remains very much out as to whether Leslie Evans fits that template.
https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/03/26/china-assures-that-spains-government-bought-the-faulty-quick-coronavirus-tests-from-an-unlicensed-company/?fbclid=IwAR15n30gyUmX6NK8-wB1GlW3XTPpepJ9MX8icoNfEMfz0VyDti8V-S3ki0U
or should that be repent in lockdown!
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/03/26/fireeye_apt41_chinese_hackers_zoho_citrix_cisco/
Providing it does get paid, eventually, that will be fine for many businesses. Any significant delay could/will be fatal for others. Hence the daily stories of mass layoffs.
The app, made by King's College London, is the first of its kind and attracted 650,000 users within a day of launching"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/monitoring-app-suggests-65-million-people-uk-may-already-have/
Information I've received is that:
"Rules as set out in official statements
1) Furloughed members of staff must not work for the employer during the period of furlough.
2) Furlough is from 1 March 2020, so is to be backdated. It will last for at least 3 months and will be extended if necessary. Note that while the scheme is backdated to the beginning of March as it is intended to support all those employed then, a firm will only be eligible to claim the grant once they have agreed the furlough with their staff and staff have stopped working for the employer. This will of course be subject to employment law in the usual way.
3) It is available to employees on the payroll at 29 February 2020.
4) All UK businesses are eligible, 'any employer on the country, small or large, charitable or non-profit' to use the Chancellor's words.
5) The scheme pays a grant (not a loan) to the employer.
6) The grant will be paid to the employer through a new online system which is being built for this purpose.
7) The employer will pay the employee through payroll, using the Real Time Information (RTI) system as usual, as required by the employment contract. This contract may be renegotiated but that is a matter for employment law. So RTI system reporting of payroll will continue as normal.
8) Scheme will be administered by HMRC:
• Relevant employees must be designated as furloughed employees.
• Employers will submit information to HMRC through a new online portal.
• As this will take time to build, businesses should look to the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme to support cash flow in the meantime. The narrative used in the information released so far says ‘if your employer cannot cover staff costs due to COVID-19 they may be able to access support…’. This is a conditional phrase which may relate to existing funds available to the employer. We do not yet know how these might be determined, nor whether there is a bar of some description.
9) Maximum grant will be calculated per employee and is the lower of:
• 80% of ‘wages’. The notes published so far, use the phrase ‘wage for all employment costs up to a cap of £2,500 per month’. It is our understanding that this includes employers' NIC and pension contributions. Wages will be determined by reference to a defined period (yet to be announced).
• £2,500 per month."