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When I was a child in Naples, the trams had signs on them telling people not to spit and also to offer up seats to the “mutilati di guerra” (the war wounded). The first sign always puzzled me. Spitting was terribly bad-mannered, of course, but why was this instruction so much more necessary than any other? It took one of my many elderly relatives to tell me that spitting and coughing into the space where others were could spread disease. And diseases could kill. This was not just about good manners but health. It was obvious to those who had grown up before WW2, had lived through it and WW1, had known a world without antibiotics and vaccines, a world where childhood diseases, some of them quite debilitating and often lethal, were commonplace (my mother and her siblings caught every childhood disease going), a world where pneumonia killed the young, where TB was a lethal disease not a romantic backdrop to operas, where childbirth was still a risk, where formula milk was not available for those mothers too sick to nurse their infants, where cuts were bathed with iodine to prevent infection. (I still remember how it stung and the fierce determination with which it was applied, no matter how loud our childish cries.) 

Read the full story here

Foxy

First past the post...

ydoethur

Foxy said:

First past the post...

We’ll allow you that with a good grace, given you’re ill.

dr_spyn

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

ExiledInScotland

Good as always. One good thing to come from this will hopefully be a reassessment of the need to invest more in vaccines, new classes of antibiotics and the need for more resilience in core functions of society.

Stark_Dawning

A good start might be for footie players to stop gobbing on the pitch. Today's yoof must see that and think it's okay.

Richard_Nabavi

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

nichomar

My daughter is a mental health therapist and she is now doing sessions over the phone, she says it’s heart breaking seeing months of work with agoraphobics and other issues is lost as they get hung up on the virus crisis and only reenforces the problems they were trying to overcome.

rottenborough

nichomar said:

My daughter is a mental health therapist and she is now doing sessions over the phone, she says it’s heart breaking seeing months of work with agoraphobics and other issues is lost as they get hung up on the virus crisis and only reenforces the problems they were trying to overcome.

A very important point. Our NHS mental health service is going to be under incredible pressure and I suspect will be another aspect of our systems that will have to change utterly when all this is over. It has been neglected far too long, despite all the talk by politicians.

Few people seem to be considering what is happening to people who are effectively in solitary confinement.

CarlottaVance

Richard_Nabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

Including the editor of The Lancet - who castigated the government for following his advice:

https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1243315992459182082?s=20

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

Including the editor of The Lancet - who castigated the government for following his advice:

https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1243315992459182082?s=20

Why would he say something like that when he surely remembered what his own position had been? Did he really think no one would notice?

ydoethur

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

Including the editor of The Lancet - who castigated the government for following his advice:

https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1243315992459182082?s=20

Why would he say something like that when he surely remembered what his own position had been? Did he really think no one would notice?

Because he’s thick as pigshit as well as a nasty small-minded bully and liar?

Andy_JS

Trump approval rating: 46.3% with FiveThirty Eight.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

Or 47.3% with RealClearPolitics.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

CarlottaVance

Götterdämmerung contd.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243623339480014850?s=20

NickPalmer

Good article, if not quite the cheery tonic one might wish for. One big change over past centuries is the availability of multi-mode contact for most people - isolation doesn't feel nearly so bad when you can talk and email and text and WhatsApp etc etc. I've been out for a walk a couple of times and met others - we eyed each other nervously and steered a wide berth. To be honest I feel safer simply staying at home, chatting to friends, and sod the exercise.

Stocky

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

First past the post...

We’ll allow you that with a good grace, given you’re ill.

He can`t be that ill if he`s that quick

glw

Richard_Nabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

Yeah the amateurs saying "well I knew" have hindsight, COVID-19 could have been and generally would be expected to be more like SARS or MERS and not turn into a global problem.

If any smart alec on the Internet knows a way of determining in the early stages of a new virus emerging that it will become a pandemic rather than fizzle out or be easily snuffed out well they can tell everyone and collect their Nobel Prize.

matthiasfromhamburg

CarlottaVance said:

Götterdämmerung contd.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243623339480014850?s=20

His opening yesterday was remarkable. Trying very hard to prononuce the names of the other G20 leaders, he was very much laboring to breathe. A sight - and sound - to behold, but he recovered somewhat during his stint at the mic.

GideonWise

To be fair to Horton, he changed his mind a few days later. His thesis that February was a wasted month is true. However, now is not the time to dwell on that. He would have been better using his position at the time to raise the alarm so it didn't happen. Only a token effort was made.

Instead now is the time to provide constructive criticism, reflect and amplify the problems on the frontline and ultimately support the effort against this disease. There is plenty of time afterwards to identify what went wrong, including noting the underfunding of the health care system.

Stocky

GideonWise said:

To be fair to Horton, he changed his mind a few days later. His thesis that February was a wasted month is true. However, now is not the time to dwell on that. He would have been better using his position at the time to raise the alarm so it didn't happen. Only a token effort was made.

Instead now is the time to provide constructive criticism, reflect and amplify the problems on the frontline and ultimately support the effort against this disease. There is plenty of time afterwards to identify what went wrong, including noting the underfunding of the health care system.

Are you fully recovered now?

glw

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

Including the editor of The Lancet - who castigated the government for following his advice:

https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1243315992459182082?s=20

Why would he say something like that when he surely remembered what his own position had been? Did he really think no one would notice?

Because he’s thick as pigshit as well as a nasty small-minded bully and liar?

From what I've heard from him in the last few days he's definitely a berk.

CarlottaVance

On topic - I've tried to source it, but can't, I am reminded of this quote:

"We act as though we are immortal, yet each day death walks amongst us."

ydoethur

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

First past the post...

We’ll allow you that with a good grace, given you’re ill.

He can`t be that ill if he`s that quick

Well, in that case, can we just take it as a PB appreciation for the NHS, 24 hours late?

ydoethur

matthiasfromhamburg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Götterdämmerung contd.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243623339480014850?s=20

His opening yesterday was remarkable. Trying very hard to prononuce the names of the other G20 leaders, he was very much laboring to breathe. A sight - and sound - to behold, but he recovered somewhat during his stint at the mic.

Those whom the gods...

GideonWise

Richard_Nabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

Not really. It was easy to spot and world leading scientists were raising the alarm at the end of January. But anyway. It doesn't matter now, what matters is how we can do our best given where we are.

Stocky

ydoethur said:

Stocky said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

First past the post...

We’ll allow you that with a good grace, given you’re ill.

He can`t be that ill if he`s that quick

Well, in that case, can we just take it as a PB appreciation for the NHS, 24 hours late?

Yeah, get back to work pronto, Foxy

Gardenwalker

I think we could tell by late Jan that it was a potential deadly pandemic, although I’m not sure what the government might have done at that point.

What *is* true is that Boris in the early weeks (ie right into early March) have the impression there was nothing to worry about, even handshaking was fine.

Anyway, can’t be arsed carping.
More interested in how we beat this bitch.

kinabalu

Great header. Yes, perhaps we now feel like most people for most of the time have felt.

GideonWise

Stocky said:

GideonWise said:

To be fair to Horton, he changed his mind a few days later. His thesis that February was a wasted month is true. However, now is not the time to dwell on that. He would have been better using his position at the time to raise the alarm so it didn't happen. Only a token effort was made.

Instead now is the time to provide constructive criticism, reflect and amplify the problems on the frontline and ultimately support the effort against this disease. There is plenty of time afterwards to identify what went wrong, including noting the underfunding of the health care system.

Are you fully recovered now?

I'm feeling better today. But nervy to say so because it has been so up and down.

ydoethur

GideonWise said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

Not really. It was easy to spot and world leading scientists were raising the alarm at the end of January. But anyway. It doesn't matter now, what matters is how we can do our best given where we are.

I don’t mind people having changed their views. That’s allowed. I didn’t foresee that this virus would spread this fast or be this severe. I thought it would be a fairly significant problem in this country next winter, a sort of energetic flu. I was completely wrong.

But it’s a bit off to say that other people were not taken it seriously when he was urging them not to to take it seriously and makes no mention of that.

GideonWise

ydoethur said:

GideonWise said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Worth a quick read.

https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712

Yes, everyone has forgotten just how fast this has developed - from what was seen by the experts as a moderate threat to the current full-blown crisis in just four weeks or so.

Not really. It was easy to spot and world leading scientists were raising the alarm at the end of January. But anyway. It doesn't matter now, what matters is how we can do our best given where we are.

I don’t mind people having changed their views. That’s allowed. I didn’t foresee that this virus would spread this fast or be this severe. I thought it would be a fairly significant problem in this country next winter, a sort of energetic flu. I was completely wrong.

But it’s a bit off to say that other people were not taken it seriously when he was urging them not to to take it seriously and makes no mention of that.

Yes that is naughty and obviously he isn't the best person to make that point. It's also not the time now to be making it.

SandyRentool

An emotional 24 hours for Priti Patel.

Yesterday she was giddy with excitement over the implementation of a police state.

Today she realised that she spent PMQs sat between two blokes who've got COVID-19.

Fysics_Teacher

CarlottaVance said:

Götterdämmerung contd.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243623339480014850?s=20

Are you sure? I’m only half way through Siegfried.

Floater

USA 100k cases and rising

RobD

SandyRentool said:

An emotional 24 hours for Priti Patel.

Yesterday she was giddy with excitement over the implementation of a police state.

Today she realised that she spent PMQs sat between two blokes who've got COVID-19.

You win some, you lose some.

Mysticrose

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/PA/status/1243629893025488902

another_richard

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Andy_JS

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1243571191945838593

FrancisUrquhart

Gardenwalker said:

I think we could tell by late Jan that it was a potential deadly pandemic, although I’m not sure what the government might have done at that point.
.

Well they started having meetings at the beginning of January. Ferguson fired up his model and given the available data it didn't say anything of the sort.

So all those going well it was bloody obvious wasn't it...one of the foremost experts in this field with the highly sophisticated model couldn't tell, so I think all the armchair critics can do one.

It probably didn't help that China more than likely has been fiddling the figures to some extent.

Now if the government hadn't even bothered to setup the working government and got the egg-heads working, now that would be valid criticism. But that isn't what happened.

williamglenn

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/PA/status/1243629893025488902

What if so many test positive that they wouldn't be able to continue to operate if everyone self-isolated?

IanB2

Mysticrose said:

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

Partly the latter having rather more to worry about than the former.

Partly that the risk involved in your decision was a few quid wasted. The risk involved in the government taking preparatory action before the threat was real would have been £millions if not £billions, wasted if the virus went the way of the previous three or four that briefly looked like imminent pandemics before melting away.

Nigelb

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Coughs and sneezes spread diseases; that’s why we use our handkerchieveses.

Gardenwalker

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gardenwalker said:

I think we could tell by late Jan that it was a potential deadly pandemic, although I’m not sure what the government might have done at that point.
.

Well they started having meeting at the beginning of January. Ferguson fired up the super computer model and given the available data it didn't say anything of the sort.

So all those going well it was bloody obvious wasn't...one of the foremost experts in this field with the highly sophisticated model couldn't tell, so I think all the armchair critics can do one.

Now if the government hadn't even bothered to setup the working government and got the egg-heads working, now that would be valid criticism. But that isn't what happened.

And yet; a few on here were raising the alarm.

Omnium

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

An emotional 24 hours for Priti Patel.

Yesterday she was giddy with excitement over the implementation of a police state.

Today she realised that she spent PMQs sat between two blokes who've got COVID-19.

You win some, you lose some.

She and others in the Tory ranks will have a great deal of space in which to prove their worth over coming weeks. They have nothing at all to live up to in terms of a standard politically - the outgoing leader of the opposition having just nailed his colours to the mast in his self-validiction, and the outgoing shadow-chancellor trying to spend money like Brewster.

Let's hope they set themselves high standards and deliver.

IshmaelZ

Mysticrose said:

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

A sobering thought from those days: remember the footage of 5 or 6 large tanker lorries line abreast rolling slowly through Wuhan spraying the streets with disinfectant? We aren't doing anything remotely like that. People speak as if tightening up to match Chinese standards just means welding people into flats rather than politely suggesting they stay there. Wrong.

ydoethur

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Diogenes would disagree with you.

Casino_Royale

Andy_JS said:

Trump approval rating: 46.3% with FiveThirty Eight.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

Or 47.3% with RealClearPolitics.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

I keep warning those (who obviously hate Trump) not to let that overly influence their betting.

But they do.

FrancisUrquhart

IshmaelZ said:

Mysticrose said:

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

A sobering thought from those days: remember the footage of 5 or 6 large tanker lorries line abreast rolling slowly through Wuhan spraying the streets with disinfectant? We aren't doing anything remotely like that. People speak as if tightening up to match Chinese standards just means welding people into flats rather than politely suggesting they stay there. Wrong.

Do we have any evidence that firing disinfectant all over the streets does anything?

I have read only one article that says basically if you want to be ultra ultra cautious you want to leave your shoes outside and wash your hands when you come in, as there is a very small chance it could be on the bottom of your shoes.

Also, lets not forget, in China spitting is culturally acceptable. In the West, it is not.

I think there are many more situations that pose a much higher risk.

Casino_Royale

Good thread.

The risk is we rapidly forget this within a few years of this crisis.

I hope that's not the case.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Diogenes would disagree with you.

Not a barrel of laughs, that guy.

Barely clubbable.

IanB2

FrancisUrquhart said:

IshmaelZ said:

Mysticrose said:

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

A sobering thought from those days: remember the footage of 5 or 6 large tanker lorries line abreast rolling slowly through Wuhan spraying the streets with disinfectant? We aren't doing anything remotely like that. People speak as if tightening up to match Chinese standards just means welding people into flats rather than politely suggesting they stay there. Wrong.

Do we have any evidence that firing disinfectant all over the streets does anything?

It might help encourage people to stay at home?

FrancisUrquhart

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IshmaelZ said:

Mysticrose said:

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

A sobering thought from those days: remember the footage of 5 or 6 large tanker lorries line abreast rolling slowly through Wuhan spraying the streets with disinfectant? We aren't doing anything remotely like that. People speak as if tightening up to match Chinese standards just means welding people into flats rather than politely suggesting they stay there. Wrong.

Do we have any evidence that firing disinfectant all over the streets does anything?

It might help encourage people to stay at home?

Good point....Fire up the water cannons......

Philip_Thompson

Nigelb said:

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Coughs and sneezes spread diseases; that’s why we use our handkerchieveses.

That's the Ferrari theme tune isn't it?

When I was young my father sang that whenever Ferrari won a race.

felix

Nigelb said:

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Coughs and sneezes spread diseases; that’s why we use our handkerchieveses.

atisshoo atishoo we all fall down - that was the 1665 Plague - OMG how old am I?

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IshmaelZ said:

Mysticrose said:

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

A sobering thought from those days: remember the footage of 5 or 6 large tanker lorries line abreast rolling slowly through Wuhan spraying the streets with disinfectant? We aren't doing anything remotely like that. People speak as if tightening up to match Chinese standards just means welding people into flats rather than politely suggesting they stay there. Wrong.

Do we have any evidence that firing disinfectant all over the streets does anything?

It might help encourage people to stay at home?

Good point....Fire up the water cannons......

They have been sold haven't they?

rottenborough

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

Trump approval rating: 46.3% with FiveThirty Eight.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

Or 47.3% with RealClearPolitics.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

I keep warning those (who obviously hate Trump) not to let that overly influence their betting.

But they do.

Should Biden Freak Out About the Trump Bump?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-trump-polls-approval.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

FrancisUrquhart

The always excellent Grant Sanderson...looking at people getting tired of social distancing, people slipping through measures, etc...

Simulating an epidemic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs&t=1043s

IanB2

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IshmaelZ said:

Mysticrose said:

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

A sobering thought from those days: remember the footage of 5 or 6 large tanker lorries line abreast rolling slowly through Wuhan spraying the streets with disinfectant? We aren't doing anything remotely like that. People speak as if tightening up to match Chinese standards just means welding people into flats rather than politely suggesting they stay there. Wrong.

Do we have any evidence that firing disinfectant all over the streets does anything?

It might help encourage people to stay at home?

Good point....Fire up the water cannons......

They have been sold haven't they?

I believe so, for a fraction of what the great Bozo paid for them

another_richard

One example which has always struck me of how mortality has changed can be seen from this book of the first England cricket tour in 1859:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/English-Cricketers-Canada-United-States/dp/114598195X

Robin Marlar's introduction states "only three were under 30 and only 7 of the 13 were to reach 50. Death came early for the mid-Victorians ."

alex_

IshmaelZ said:

Mysticrose said:

I checked just now as a friend wanted one of my masks. I ordered mine from Amazon on 23rd January. It arrived two days later. Bemusingly, even then its main selling point was its anti-pollution filtration system despite the fact it's said to be effective against viral droplets.

How the hell does it take a pretty nondescript writer to suss what's about to hit and at least another 6 weeks for the Gov't to do so?

A sobering thought from those days: remember the footage of 5 or 6 large tanker lorries line abreast rolling slowly through Wuhan spraying the streets with disinfectant? We aren't doing anything remotely like that. People speak as if tightening up to match Chinese standards just means welding people into flats rather than politely suggesting they stay there. Wrong.

I think you'll find we are very shortly. Why do you think Councils have been ordered to forcibly house all rough sleepers?

AramintaMoonbeamQC

felix said:

Nigelb said:

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Coughs and sneezes spread diseases; that’s why we use our handkerchieveses.

atisshoo atishoo we all fall down - that was the 1665 Plague - OMG how old am I?

You're like one of those old codgers who gets misty eyed about the Blitz, even though they weren't born until 1947.

'Eee, this pandemic isn't a patch on the Black Death, that were the big one'.

tyson

Gardenwalker said:

I think we could tell by late Jan that it was a potential deadly pandemic, although I’m not sure what the government might have done at that point.

What *is* true is that Boris in the early weeks (ie right into early March) have the impression there was nothing to worry about, even handshaking was fine.

Anyway, can’t be arsed carping.
More interested in how we beat this bitch.

I did a 400 quid shop on the 8th February at Waitrose....loads of wine, beer, and I got bog roll too....and pot noodles....I got the priorities right...but sadly neglected the 0.5 mill we had invested in the stock market

The wine and beer now sadly are looking a bit depleted....

CatMan

felix said:

Nigelb said:

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Coughs and sneezes spread diseases; that’s why we use our handkerchieveses.

atisshoo atishoo we all fall down - that was the 1665 Plague - OMG how old am I?

Fake news!

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ring-around-rosie/

IanB2

Gardenwalker said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gardenwalker said:

I think we could tell by late Jan that it was a potential deadly pandemic, although I’m not sure what the government might have done at that point.
.

Well they started having meeting at the beginning of January. Ferguson fired up the super computer model and given the available data it didn't say anything of the sort.

So all those going well it was bloody obvious wasn't...one of the foremost experts in this field with the highly sophisticated model couldn't tell, so I think all the armchair critics can do one.

Now if the government hadn't even bothered to setup the working government and got the egg-heads working, now that would be valid criticism. But that isn't what happened.

And yet; a few on here were raising the alarm.

Not as much as you’d think (or they’d have you think), if you go back and look.

TheScreamingEagles

Oh my.

alex_

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

felix said:

Nigelb said:

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Coughs and sneezes spread diseases; that’s why we use our handkerchieveses.

atisshoo atishoo we all fall down - that was the 1665 Plague - OMG how old am I?

You're like one of those old codgers who gets misty eyed about the Blitz, even though they weren't born until 1947.

'Eee, this pandemic isn't a patch on the Black Death, that were the big one'.

1665 might have been the big one if somebody wasn't kind enough to accidentally burn down London.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1243616196555128841

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

IanB2

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gardenwalker said:

I think we could tell by late Jan that it was a potential deadly pandemic, although I’m not sure what the government might have done at that point.
.

Well they started having meetings at the beginning of January. Ferguson fired up his model and given the available data it didn't say anything of the sort.

So all those going well it was bloody obvious wasn't it...one of the foremost experts in this field with the highly sophisticated model couldn't tell, so I think all the armchair critics can do one.

It probably didn't help that China more than likely has been fiddling the figures to some extent.

Now if the government hadn't even bothered to setup the working government and got the egg-heads working, now that would be valid criticism. But that isn't what happened.

As a relevant aside, in September 2014 the CDC forecast that West Africa would be overwhelmed by 1.4 million Ebola cases by the following January. As things panned out, there were actually only 30,000 cases. Similar for SARS, MERS and bird flu. Working out which viruses will become pandemics and which not is not as easy as it might look with hindsight.

Omnium

I'd mis-remembered the quote about the past being another country.

'The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there.'

Was what I thought the header was referring to. Anyway I guess 'another country' has been used variously. Do they even allude to it in Star Trek?

It won't benefit the original author at all, but I've just ordered a copy of the Go-Between.

I'm oddly happy that cyclefree didn't rebuke a rather lovely quotation.

rottenborough

Trump, inaugural speech: "This American carnage stops right here and stops right now."

Trump now: "We will be back at work by Easter"

stodge

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

There's no chance of the lock-down being eased on the 15th April it would seem. I still think Boris wants the country back to "normal" to celebrate VE or VC Day on May 8th.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

We aren't going to be ready in 2 weeks....at least not all the extra capacity that was hoped for, and clearly the mid May timeline was what the thinking behind the ventilator schemes i.e. sign off March, start April, month to work balls to the wall to get 10,000s.

Nigelb

A very good article by Cyclefree, as always.

It’s not so much a technology problem - we had a SARS vaccine ready for trials fairly soon after the outbreak a decade and a half ago, and we can now have new vaccines possibly ready for clinical trials within a matter of weeks - so much as a market one.

And there is no commercial incentive to develop new antibiotics.
Though governments are starting to wake up to that.

glw

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well they started having meetings at the beginning of January. Ferguson fired up his model and given the available data it didn't say anything of the sort.

So all those going well it was bloody obvious wasn't it...one of the foremost experts in this field with the highly sophisticated model couldn't tell, so I think all the armchair critics can do one.

It probably didn't help that China more than likely has been fiddling the figures to some extent.

Now if the government hadn't even bothered to setup the working government and got the egg-heads working, now that would be valid criticism. But that isn't what happened.

It seems to me that a big part of the problem is that the figures you want to use in your model are the ones that you get after a pandemic has run its course. On the other hand the figures you have to use are error prone and in some cases assumed, and therefore the potential for the model producing highly misleading results is ever-present.

It's a genuinely tough problem to crack.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1243593105229611009

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

We aren't going to be ready in 2 weeks.

Might be if the peak is much lower than we think.

isam

nichomar said:

My daughter is a mental health therapist and she is now doing sessions over the phone, she says it’s heart breaking seeing months of work with agoraphobics and other issues is lost as they get hung up on the virus crisis and only reenforces the problems they were trying to overcome.

I was thinking earlier that this was not terrible for agoraphobics? I had a time when I was isolated , lonely and had a bit of social anxiety myself, so not taking the Mick

tyson

I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....

TheWhiteRabbit

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

We aren't going to be ready in 2 weeks....at least not all the extra capacity that was hoped for, and clearly the mid May timeline was what the thinking behind the ventilator schemes i.e. sign off March, start April, month to work balls to the wall to get 10,000s.

unless they are expecting a lower peak?

isam

Good thread header @cyclefree. One bonus of this disease is the lack of Brexit headers.

FrancisUrquhart

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gardenwalker said:

I think we could tell by late Jan that it was a potential deadly pandemic, although I’m not sure what the government might have done at that point.
.

Well they started having meetings at the beginning of January. Ferguson fired up his model and given the available data it didn't say anything of the sort.

So all those going well it was bloody obvious wasn't it...one of the foremost experts in this field with the highly sophisticated model couldn't tell, so I think all the armchair critics can do one.

It probably didn't help that China more than likely has been fiddling the figures to some extent.

Now if the government hadn't even bothered to setup the working government and got the egg-heads working, now that would be valid criticism. But that isn't what happened.

As a relevant aside, in September 2014 the CDC forecast that West Africa would be overwhelmed by 1.4 million Ebola cases by the following January. As things panned out, there were actually only 30,000 cases. Similar for SARS, MERS and bird flu. Working out which viruses will become pandemics and which not is not as easy as it might look with hindsight.

Exactly. And I think it is pretty clear that Western government don't trust the Chinese figures, and as soon as they started to plug in Italy, all the models went mental i.e. double the hospitalisation rate.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

We aren't going to be ready in 2 weeks.

Might be if the peak is much lower than we think.

I see you are a glass half full kind of guy.

CarlottaVance

CarlottaVance said:

Götterdämmerung contd.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243623339480014850?s=20

Or not

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243637134457810945?s=20

isam

Stocky said:

GideonWise said:

To be fair to Horton, he changed his mind a few days later. His thesis that February was a wasted month is true. However, now is not the time to dwell on that. He would have been better using his position at the time to raise the alarm so it didn't happen. Only a token effort was made.

Instead now is the time to provide constructive criticism, reflect and amplify the problems on the frontline and ultimately support the effort against this disease. There is plenty of time afterwards to identify what went wrong, including noting the underfunding of the health care system.

Are you fully recovered now?

Pah

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

We aren't going to be ready in 2 weeks.

Might be if the peak is much lower than we think.

Lets hope so.

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1243593105229611009

There is another thing I noticed they have increasingly started to do...lets call it the Jim Acosta school of press conference questioning. Make a load of statements combining fact and opinion, not questions, for best part of 30s and then basically say so you are lying aren't you / you are crap aren't you?

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

We aren't going to be ready in 2 weeks.

Might be if the peak is much lower than we think.

I see you are a glass half full kind of guy.

But if the peak is much lower then I expect wave two will be a lot higher as people think this was much ado about nothing.

geoffw

In France on a school exchange in the mid 1950s we were astonished by the ubiquity of défense de cracher notices inside buses, train stations etc. Spitting was not at all common here, certainly not on public transport. But spitting in public must have been common in 19th century America - cf. spittoons - and nowadays in China. It's a male thing and connected to smoking.

IanB2

isam said:

Good thread header @cyclefree. One bonus of this disease is the lack of Brexit headers.

We’re all just stunned that Brexit turned out quite so bad. Everyone was criticising the number on the bus for being undeliverable, yet it now looks like a serious underestimate. Meanwhile no-one latched onto our not being allowed to leave our homes.

tyson

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1243625889000304643

There's no chance of the lock-down being eased on the 15th April it would seem. I still think Boris wants the country back to "normal" to celebrate VE or VC Day on May 8th.

We all want the country back by the beginning of May...I want to go to the pub, and not have people scuttle away from me in the street when I pass them like I'm a suicide bomber..I want to go the cinema...and not have to wash my hands every 5 seconds....I want to go to the barbers....

As my mum said...what we want, we don't always get....

BluestBlue

IanB2 said:

isam said:

Good thread header @cyclefree. One bonus of this disease is the lack of Brexit headers.

We’re all just stunned that Brexit turned out quite so bad. Everyone was criticising the number on the bus for being undeliverable, yet it now looks like a serious underestimate. Meanwhile no-one latched onto our not being allowed to leave our homes.

The pandemic is just a Tory ruse to make No Deal Brexit look like paradise by comparison...

BluestBlue

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

Am I the only one to remember the old Victorian saying "Cleanliness is next to Godliness" ?

Diogenes would disagree with you.

Not a barrel of laughs, that guy.

Barely clubbable.

If you tried chatting to him, he'd lamp you...

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1243639736025190402

tyson

geoffw said:

In France on a school exchange in the mid 1950s we were astonished by the ubiquity of défense de cracher notices inside buses, train stations etc. Spitting was not at all common here, certainly not on public transport. But spitting in public must have been common in 19th century America - cf. spittoons - and nowadays in China. It's a male thing and connected to smoking.

If we do get through this hopefully we can watch football without them grobbing all the time...Pep is terrible and he doesn't even play..he flecks this little white floaters out continuously...it's disgusting...

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1243325917969211393?s=20

dodrade

Casino_Royale said:

Good thread.

The risk is we rapidly forget this within a few years of this crisis.

I hope that's not the case.

It is curious how the Spanish Flu of 1918 is much less remembered than the First World War despite killing far more people, perhaps people actively wish to forget pandemics for some reason.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243637430483390470?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243572588200280064?s=20

CatMan

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1243639736025190402

In a show of bipartisanship he didn't invite any Democrats

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1243516004912766977?s=20