Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
Do you have a source for 500k tests per week?
I would be staggered if Germany was doing 500k per week. (Impressed. Staggered. And also surprised.)
Longview sources it to a doctor in Berlin on a radio show. I’m wondering if there is a more official source. Doesn’t pass the sniff test.
It sounds a little high but the "doctor on a radio show" is Christian Drosten head of virology at the Berlin Charité and not someone to make up a random number
With things like the Olympics cancelled for a year what the f**k is the obsession with trying to finish the PL season? It comes across as highly insensitive given all the dire problems people are now facing on a daily basis. Greed pure and simple.
What really finished it for me was the Barcelona players refusing to accept a pay cut to a mere £100,000 or £200,000 a week, for the time being. With many of their compatriots in terrible trouble it just shows how far these guys are up their own backsides.
Once this crisis is finally over I wonder if it is going to result in a lot of people viewing a lot of things differently. The super rich would be well-advised to maintain low profiles for the foreseeable future .
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital
Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?
260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......
260 doubled every 3 days is 1000 deaths in 6 days, not 2 weeks.
Yes, but the doubling rate will slow down before the peak.
It's the overall number of deaths that is doubling every 3 days, not the daily rate of deaths...
We have circa 1000 dead today....in 3 days we will have overall 2000 dead (ie so we will see daily rises into the 300's in the next three days)
In 6 days we will have 4000 dead...which will be daily rises into the low 600's
In 9 days we will have 8000 dead...and then rises to 1000 a day plus....on a 3 day rule
If it's 4 days doubling.....we will rises of 250 a day for the next 4 days....
If it's 5 days doubling....we will see rates of 200 a day...so we will already be close to the worst....
We can see why flattening the curve will save tens of thousands of lives....
This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
A friend of mine was given the use of a cottage by loch Rannoch which he took up. Locals, perfectly politely, asked him to go home so he is back in Edinburgh.
What's going to go up in taxes after this is over ?
Equalisation of self employed/employed tax payments Penny on income tax for basic rate, perhaps 3p or so for higher rate - all hypothecated to the NHS Fuel duty hike IHT thresholds frozen, various loopholes cut out. All for starters, probably plenty of other stuff to go up too.
The self employed tax return idea was very smart.
Increased taxation of second homes. Increased taxation of air travel (fits into the climate change issue as well).
Curious numbers from Italy. A constant number of cases (and deaths - nearly 1000 today) but actually quite a decent drop in new cases in Lombardy and a (slightly smaller) drop in Veneto (both good news). Need to see if the rest of the country follows this.
Certainly, the Lombardy governor has been suggesting the last 24-48h that they are just at the point where cases start to descend. If this is the case, that is about 2.5-3 weeks after the lockdown, so very consistent with what the government here have stated. Will also be curious to see what is happening at the regional level in Spain - @Felix or @nichomar have you seen any useful plots of this?
Is there a weekend effect on testing again or have we finally got past that?
I received the sad news yesterday of a guy I knew at school who has died suddenly at the age of 66. He had just returned from France, and whilst he did have heart issues which required a stent two years ago, the cause of death has yet to be established. Apparently Covid19 is a possibility.
This is something I genuinely know little about. How do I prepare raspberry canes for the 2020 season, and what support do they need? Would a horse fence style box on 4 sides do it, or do I need to tie up each individual cane? At the moment the enclosure is a touch decrepit.
(By contrast, I do know about blackberries as I train the Himalayan Giant to crop for blackberry vinegar and the berries).
So you should have a support at each end of a row of canes and maybe one in the middle depending on how long the row is.
The wire should be tied to the supports horizontally - at 3 levels near the bottom, middle and top. The raspberry plants you then train laterally along these wires.
Some time in late spring you should thin out your raspberry canes (in the case of summer fruiting ones) so that you have about 6, no more than 8 per plant and these as they grow will be tied to the wires.
For autumn fruiting raspberries cut the canes down to the ground in February and as they grow do the same.
Essentially you are creating a sort of supporting grid for the canes allowing the plants to grow from the new wood and horizontally - because the flowers and fruit will come from the horizontal stems - and making sure that the plants are not too congested, particularly at the base, so as to allow light and air in.
Comments
NEW THREAD
What really finished it for me was the Barcelona players refusing to accept a pay cut to a mere £100,000 or £200,000 a week, for the time being. With many of their compatriots in terrible trouble it just shows how far these guys are up their own backsides.
Once this crisis is finally over I wonder if it is going to result in a lot of people viewing a lot of things differently. The super rich would be well-advised to maintain low profiles for the foreseeable future .
We have circa 1000 dead today....in 3 days we will have overall 2000 dead (ie so we will see daily rises into the 300's in the next three days)
In 6 days we will have 4000 dead...which will be daily rises into the low 600's
In 9 days we will have 8000 dead...and then rises to 1000 a day plus....on a 3 day rule
If it's 4 days doubling.....we will rises of 250 a day for the next 4 days....
If it's 5 days doubling....we will see rates of 200 a day...so we will already be close to the worst....
We can see why flattening the curve will save tens of thousands of lives....
Increased taxation of air travel (fits into the climate change issue as well).
The wire should be tied to the supports horizontally - at 3 levels near the bottom, middle and top. The raspberry plants you then train laterally along these wires.
Some time in late spring you should thin out your raspberry canes (in the case of summer fruiting ones) so that you have about 6, no more than 8 per plant and these as they grow will be tied to the wires.
For autumn fruiting raspberries cut the canes down to the ground in February and as they grow do the same.
Essentially you are creating a sort of supporting grid for the canes allowing the plants to grow from the new wood and horizontally - because the flowers and fruit will come from the horizontal stems - and making sure that the plants are not too congested, particularly at the base, so as to allow light and air in.
Hope this helps!