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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The exit door. The state of Labour as Jeremy Corbyn departs
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The exit door. The state of Labour as Jeremy Corbyn departs
What of Labour? This is a question that almost no one is thinking about as, almost unnoticed, Jeremy Corbyn slips out of the limelight. Like the Magnificent Ambersons, Labour have got their comeuppance. They’d got it three times filled and running over. But those who had longed for it were not there to see it. And they never knew it, those who were still living had forgotten all about it, and all about them.
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Swedish public health experts argue that the virus can be stopped solely by vaccination or by herd immunity.
Since a vaccine for widespread use is still at least a year away, they say, the only possible way to stop the epidemic is by isolating vulnerable people while allowing the virus to spread as slowly as possible through the healthy population as they build resistance." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/coronavirus-elderly-in-lockdown-and-children-in-school-help-sweden-pursue-herd-immunity-r705m76dd
In other thoughts, vanilla seemed to be being difficult yesterday, and continues to be so today.
On topic, Corbyn could well have been the gadfly of the Left of the Party, keeper of the Socialist flame etc, but he was never, ever, Leader material.
The two major issues it would have brought up were 1) a progressive coalition of voters (Hodges' 35% strategy) isn't large enough, Labour need to directly attract Tory voters and 2) Britain will always be repulsed by the idea of the Scottish Nationalists having a decisive say on running the country.
Five years later and Labour have positioned themselves even further away from winning Tory voters and have lost a further 6% vote share in Scotland with the same 1 seat.
Starmer's first task will simply be to get Labour where they were under mid term Miliband, having poll leads,winning local election seats and not having rock bottom personal leadership ratings. Start with the basics of what the leading opposition party should be doing and going from there.
I’m looking at June before I can go out again, but I’ve had a lot of practice at being at home on my own while recovering from various treatments.
Seemed like a cool idea.
Will there be a lot more books written?
Fantastic article and not to anticipate the second but one thing if this site is in any way representative, I'm not sure that members and diehards really have a clue of just how bad it is. The classic would be Justin124 who seems in massive denial and has convinced himself that hatred of Boris and the arrival of SKS will be sufficient to sweep the Tories from power next time. Many others have a similar view. I am from the NE of England. I am not young. What we saw there in December was extraordinary and similar or worse has happened in many heartlands. Even some of the smaller cities are no longer safe - Coventry, Sunderland, Hull... they are nowhere in Scotland, north Wales moved away in December.. the list goes on.
Of course it's all reversible but it won't be easy - JC has gone but apparently will stay vocal and wants a shadow cabinet role, while several new MPs who did scrape home are clear head cases. Momentum is embedded in the party machinery. Neil Kinnock performed miracles in the early 90s to pave the way for Tony Blair. That is SKS's task now. Good luck with that.
I expect inevitably the focus today will swiftly move to mre pressing matters. But it was nice to porget for a few minutes. Thankyou.
Is this a weakening of party loyalties? I'm not sure. Look at Labour and you'd say yes but what of the Tory side? Some Conservatives left the party (and others were slung out) but there has also been a degree of triumphalism: never mind the policies, the blue team won.
There is also the question of foreign intervention but that report is still under lockdown in the Number 10 safe.
I'd suggest the big question barely involves Labour at all -- what happens when Conservative MPs realise they are implementing Labour policies?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1244053944554401800
I guess Covid gives him cover to drop the free broadband promise.
We've seen a realignment in one part of the country, could the same happen in traditionally safe Tory areas?
Unless you have a dog and are forced out there anyway.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/desperate-for-medical-equipment-states-encounter-a-beleaguered-national-stockpile/2020/03/28/1f4f9a0a-6f82-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html
Though it’s true that Florida seems to have received preferential treatment, that seems more likely because the governor is assiduous in flattering Trump:
... Florida has been an exception in its dealings with the stockpile: The state submitted a request on March 11 for 430,000 surgical masks, 180,000 N95 respirators, 82,000 face shields and 238,000 gloves, among other supplies — and received a shipment with everything three days later, according to figures from the state’s Division of Emergency Management. It received an identical shipment on March 23, according to the division, and is awaiting a third.
“The governor has spoken to the president daily, and the entire congressional delegation has been working as one for the betterment of the state of Florida,” said Jared Moskowitz, the emergency management division’s director. “We are leaving no stone unturned.”
President Trump repeatedly has warned states not to complain about how much they are receiving, including Friday during a White House briefing, where he advised Vice President Pence not to call governors who are critical of the administration’s response. “I want them to be appreciative,” he said...
He isn't a 'paid-up member of London's metropolitan elite'. Being successful doesn't automatically qualify you for that opprobrium. He came from a pretty working class family background in Southwark which is hardly metropolitan elite and certainly wasn't then: mother a nurse and father a toolmaker and his mother was ill for much of his childhood. He was state school educated.
He did not 'devise' Labour's Brexit policy at all. That is utter rubbish. Labour was almost as riven on Europe as the Conservatives. Harold Wilson recognised this and had to deal with the Far Left's ambivalence towards the EEC and at times outright antipathy to Europe: Tony Benn, Eric Heffer being examples. Keir Starmer was attempting to hold together two mutually incompatible forces within Labour: the pro-European metropolitan London elites and the northern (basically racist) working class.
Is he charismatic? Dunno. He can be very effective at the despatch box: erudite and incisive with a sharp forensic mind.
So cut the crap and at least take him down for plausible, not spurious, reasons.
2. China is a country that cannot be trusted.
3. Ditto Russia
4. The EU talks solidarity but does not practise it.
There is some major shit still ahead of us all.
Still, a really good idea I feel.
Starmer and Labour continue to look at voters as something to either be patronised or endured.
He’s a less worse option than RLB though.
Sensational Panelbase poll shows SNP have further increased their enormous lead over the Tories -
Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:
SNP 51% (+1)
Conservatives 26% (n/c)
Labour 14% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Greens 3% (n/c)
Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:
SNP 48% (+1)
Conservatives 26% (+1)
Labour 13% (-1)
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1244153697887633408
My guess though is they will learn all the wrong lessons from the Covid-10 bail-outs.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/bill-de-blasio-had-his-worst-week-as-new-york-city-mayor.html
If I was in california or new York I would be ready to secede and let the "shithole" states sink in their own crap. Trump is worse than a mafia gangster.
If the cult don't give up and proclaim RLB the winner then I expect a fairly rapid exodus as moderates flee before they are pushed.
You have to look at the context. Corbyn won. So say Corbyn supporters who see no problem with the Jeremy prancing around on streets taking his applause for the NHS. Corbyn won because the government are delivering Corbyn policies. Corbyn won because the Corona crisis is the collapse of neoliberalism they've been dreaming of, now more than ever they must Keep Going to lead the scared people of Britain to True Socialism.
My only question will be who they select as deputy to go with RLB. Needs to be someone loyal to the cause. Rayner seemed to be the initial choice but then she said some terrible things about Israel having the right to exist. Which leaves Burgon. OK so declaring Burgon the winner is literally telling the world they've rigged the thing but given how they have openly rigged various seat selections are they bothered about being caught out?
They won Wrexham last December.
Probably double down on the policy by giving everyone a free computer so they can work from home in any future pandemic.
The world’s largest glove maker, Malaysia’s Top Glove Corporation Bhd, which makes one in every five gloves globally, expects a product shortage as demand from Europe and the United States is exceeding its capacity, Reuters reports.
The company has extended shipping times to cope with the demand surge, according to executive chairman Lim Wee Chai.
Lim said orders received in the past few weeks, mainly from Europe and the United States, were almost double the company’s production capacity. Top Glove can produce 200 million natural and synthetic rubber gloves a day.
And you can’t double production capacity overnight, even if you had the capital to do it, and weren’t worried about what to do with the new production lines when demand goes back to normal....
But looking back I'm not sure it would have made much difference. Cancelling the big parades would have certainly sent a message, but I don't think many transmissions happened there, people were infected in bars and clubs which would have been impossible to cancel at that point.
Perhaps New Orleans would be different, being more internationally famous cancelling would have reduced a lot of international travel to the city, so perhaps would make a bigger difference there. But then the argument would be more earlier restrictions on travel generally, which would have been a good idea
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1244132281272479744?s=21
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2633062/
Mixed reports (unless the £££wall addresses stopping aerosolising of the virus):
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/27/822211604/cpap-machines-were-seen-as-ventilator-alternatives-but-could-spread-covid-19
Once Starmer is in place we can finally see general competence, if he can retain the corbynite masses, and if he can tip toe them toward some more effective positioning.
And no, Jeremy, the way the government responds during a generationally unique pandemic event does not mean an approach for normal times has been proven right. That's like saying the government doesnt support killing people, but because in a war they kill people clearly they support it at all times.
Does the Labour party think it won the argument. Because if it does then it was Jeremy's argument and why would anyone want to change it.
I daresay if events had transpired earlier then he would not have agreed to step down as his moment is surely upon us.
He's been leading the criticism of the government for not testing enough. If, god forbid, the situation in the UK deteriorates beyond expectations, and the government is seen to have failed, might he be the obvious choice to lead a change in policy?
In a cruel twist of fate for Johnson, Hunt might be the pandemic's Churchill to Johnson's Chamberlain.
https://twitter.com/NAR/status/1241963325019377670
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2018/03/11/three-reasons-why-jennie-formby-should-not-become-general-secretary-of-the-labour-party/
And point out that it was completely correct on every point. It even mentioned Karie Murphy’s sex life as an example of nepotism.
If Starmer does this, he will kneecap McCluskey. Hopefully that will not lead to Starmer being hobbled but McCluskey finally being ousted from his role at UNITE.
We will see when the perjury cases come up and the names are published, the conspirators cannot hide forever and unionist attempts to try and continue the charade are doomed.
Does raise an interesting prospect that even if Labour replace London's Corbyn with London's Starmer, even facing London's Boris, that Labour might continue to slip backwards in their former North East heartland.
Imagine, not being able to blame someone else for their failings......
It's the same this time. The political arguments for the next decade are there to be won or lost, now, while the crisis is dealt with. They won't be decided calmly in the aftermath.
Nice guy.
The worry for labour is how permanent the switches are. Some people are just generally the switching kind. Others find it very hard, they resist it for ages, but once it happens theres relief as though a chord is severed, and they become committed to another side.