I should apologise that one of the links I posted is to a mathematician at a second rate university, known for its shoddy work. I have watched them though and can confirm he hasn't made any mistakes (this time).
If they walked over wouldn’t it be legitimate exercise?
No! Lock them up and throw away the key as a deterrent for the rest of us.
We have had the Vale of Glamorgan Council loudspeaker van around here telling us to all to get inside. We live in a village! The van has already done its rounds in Cowbridge and Llantwit Major apparantly.
Really? Who do they want you to be inside?
Absolutely no idea. A white loudspeaker van that came past here about half an hour ago. It was reported in the Neighbourhood blog earlier too. I assumed it was the Council. Of course it could just be some busybody.
OK, so that’s an awesome pun that didn’t quite come off...
Can someone answer me something I have been puzzling over? Exponential models say that you will meet x (say 5) people per day. You will therefore infect a proportion of those, say 3, which (as I understand it) is the R number, every day. However, surely in most societies, you meet the same people over and over again everyday, and you can’t infect them twice. So the R number has to drop. Sure, on public transport you can infect new people, but even there over time most will become infected or immune. There is clearly a hole in my understanding somewhere!
I suggest watching some videos on things like SIR.
I know the notion of 'high viral load' was debunked by Charles on here a few days ago, but how else are medics so much more susceptible to the more serious ramifications of this virus?
Can someone answer me something I have been puzzling over? Exponential models say that you will meet x (say 5) people per day. You will therefore infect a proportion of those, say 3, which (as I understand it) is the R number, every day. However, surely in most societies, you meet the same people over and over again everyday, and you can’t infect them twice. So the R number has to drop. Sure, on public transport you can infect new people, but even there over time most will become infected or immune. There is clearly a hole in my understanding somewhere!
I believe the R0 figure is the average you will infect total not per day
If they walked over wouldn’t it be legitimate exercise?
No! Lock them up and throw away the key as a deterrent for the rest of us.
We have had the Vale of Glamorgan Council loudspeaker van around here telling us to all to get inside. We live in a village! The van has already done its rounds in Cowbridge and Llantwit Major apparantly.
Really? Who do they want you to be inside?
Absolutely no idea. A white loudspeaker van that came past here about half an hour ago. It was reported in the Neighbourhood blog earlier too. I assumed it was the Council. Of course it could just be some busybody.
OK, so that’s an awesome pun that didn’t quite come off...
What is this obsession with 'a very substantial reduction of inequality'? You live in Hampstead (I grew up there - it's very nice, if you ignore the neighbours). Do you really want to move to Scunthorpe - either literally or metaphorically - for the sake of some bizarre fetishistic concept of 'equality'?
It's hardly a fetish to want to see a substantial reduction in inequality as a very high priority of government. But, OK, to avoid writing reams, I will answer the question as posed.
Yes, I DO want to move to Scunthorpe. That's exactly right. And I want them to move here.
Metaphorically.
Love the 'metaphorically'!
And actually I think 'fetish' is precisely le mot juste. Let's take the random example of a successful person from the world of commerce - an ex-City bond trader, for instance - who likes to have a lady come round every so often to inflict pain and humiliation upon him in return for a generous fee. Voting Labour is a lot like that for many rich idealists - except that instead of Madame Dangerous, it's John McDonnell rummaging through your cavities for cash with a wicked smile on his face...
Personally, I've never been able to understand the appeal of either
Does anyone know how Tesco allot slots. None are available up to April 18 and it keeps telling me to try another slot.. when there aren't any...
Same here and I can't get any slots either with Asda or with Amazon Fresh!
Sainsbury's don't even accept new customers...
A little worrying with my 71 year old mum living with me! I could go out to the local shops, but I don't want to risk bringing back any lurgie!
Can't she get on the priority list?
Last week at least, my older relative got on their list by waiting on the phone a long time, up to a hour. I think this is one of the only solutions to getting through to them at the moment.
Ah the good old "Here we stand, waiting for the people".
And what is wrong with that? If the public as a whole do NOT want a substantial redistribution of wealth and opportunity which helps some and hurts others - as it must - then fine. But they should surely not be denied the choice.
Perhaps the gap should have all but disappeared precisely because David Cameron has moved his own party close to the Labour offering.
Once in power with a minimal gap, you can then move the other direction. Labour did this under Blair/Brown - they pledged to match Tory spending originally then moved away and overspent, while being able to introduce their own priorities like NMW etc
Cameron did the same trick. He moved close to the Labour government, originally pledging to match Labour's overspending then once in office moved away - Blair/Brown's government wouldn't have had an EU referendum etc
You view Labour narrowing the gap so its close to the government as an awful concept. Maybe its what you need to do to allow the public to take that leap to you - and then you can pull in the direction you want to do so. You don't take a big gap and widen it to a chasm and expect a miracle.
That is a reasonable description of what has sometimes gone before but I see no good reason to aspire to it. Post corona, post Brexit, the political landscape will be utterly transformed. As it was to a lesser extent anyway by GE19. Labour need to develop an offering that works for this new world but keeps to the core values. "Move back to the centre" is not a useful description of the required process. "Stay radical but modernize" works much better. In fact, I think I will send that in to Keir.
After such a shock to the system I am not at all convinced that the British public will be in the mood for radicalisation.
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
I have a good contrasting display at the front, including a corkscrew hazel, pyracantha, copper beech and variegated holly. I also have an unknown one with dark bark and leaves ... but what is is? I would guess at an Osier. Any ideas?
If they walked over wouldn’t it be legitimate exercise?
No! Lock them up and throw away the key as a deterrent for the rest of us.
We have had the Vale of Glamorgan Council loudspeaker van around here telling us to all to get inside. We live in a village! The van has already done its rounds in Cowbridge and Llantwit Major apparantly.
Really? Who do they want you to be inside?
Absolutely no idea. A white loudspeaker van that came past here about half an hour ago. It was reported in the Neighbourhood blog earlier too. I assumed it was the Council. Of course it could just be some busybody.
OK, so that’s an awesome pun that didn’t quite come off...
I know the notion of 'high viral load' was debunked by Charles on here a few days ago, but how else are medics so much more susceptible to the more serious ramifications of this virus?
Stay safe!
That is not what happened at all. All Charles did was point out that "viral load" was being used by mistake for "viral dose." There seems very little doubt that exposure to higher dose (as doctors are) means you are more likely to get it and to get it worse.
Perhaps the gap should have all but disappeared precisely because David Cameron has moved his own party close to the Labour offering.
Once in power with a minimal gap, you can then move the other direction. Labour did this under Blair/Brown - they pledged to match Tory spending originally then moved away and overspent, while being able to introduce their own priorities like NMW etc
Cameron did the same trick. He moved close to the Labour government, originally pledging to match Labour's overspending then once in office moved away - Blair/Brown's government wouldn't have had an EU referendum etc
You view Labour narrowing the gap so its close to the government as an awful concept. Maybe its what you need to do to allow the public to take that leap to you - and then you can pull in the direction you want to do so. You don't take a big gap and widen it to a chasm and expect a miracle.
That is a reasonable description of what has sometimes gone before but I see no good reason to aspire to it. Post corona, post Brexit, the political landscape will be utterly transformed. As it was to a lesser extent anyway by GE19. Labour need to develop an offering that works for this new world but keeps to the core values. "Move back to the centre" is not a useful description of the required process. "Stay radical but modernize" works much better. In fact, I think I will send that in to Keir.
Perhaps the gap should have all but disappeared precisely because David Cameron has moved his own party close to the Labour offering.
Once in power with a minimal gap, you can then move the other direction. Labour did this under Blair/Brown - they pledged to match Tory spending originally then moved away and overspent, while being able to introduce their own priorities like NMW etc
Cameron did the same trick. He moved close to the Labour government, originally pledging to match Labour's overspending then once in office moved away - Blair/Brown's government wouldn't have had an EU referendum etc
You view Labour narrowing the gap so its close to the government as an awful concept. Maybe its what you need to do to allow the public to take that leap to you - and then you can pull in the direction you want to do so. You don't take a big gap and widen it to a chasm and expect a miracle.
That is a reasonable description of what has sometimes gone before but I see no good reason to aspire to it. Post corona, post Brexit, the political landscape will be utterly transformed. As it was to a lesser extent anyway by GE19. Labour need to develop an offering that works for this new world but keeps to the core values. "Move back to the centre" is not a useful description of the required process. "Stay radical but modernize" works much better. In fact, I think I will send that in to Keir.
After such a shock to the system I am not at all convinced that the British public will be in the mood for radicalisation.
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
It might be more a question of normalising radical solutions. The left around the world may want to normalise greatly increased social benefits and insurance, and the right more closed borders, for instance.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Didn't doctors used to recommend cigarettes if you had a cough?
What is this obsession with 'a very substantial reduction of inequality'? You live in Hampstead (I grew up there - it's very nice, if you ignore the neighbours). Do you really want to move to Scunthorpe - either literally or metaphorically - for the sake of some bizarre fetishistic concept of 'equality'?
It's hardly a fetish to want to see a substantial reduction in inequality as a very high priority of government. But, OK, to avoid writing reams, I will answer the question as posed.
Yes, I DO want to move to Scunthorpe. That's exactly right. And I want them to move here.
Metaphorically.
Love the 'metaphorically'!
And actually I think 'fetish' is precisely le mot juste. Let's take the random example of a successful person from the world of commerce - an ex-City bond trader, for instance - who likes to have a lady come round every so often to inflict pain and humiliation upon him in return for a generous fee. Voting Labour is a lot like that for many rich idealists - except that instead of Madame Dangerous, it's John McDonnell rummaging through your cavities for cash with a wicked smile on his face...
Personally, I've never been able to understand the appeal of either
So by analogy voting Tory would be paying someone to come round to your house, pleasure themselves, and then go away again?
I know the notion of 'high viral load' was debunked by Charles on here a few days ago, but how else are medics so much more susceptible to the more serious ramifications of this virus?
Stay safe!
That is not what happened at all. All Charles did was point out that "viral load" was being used by mistake for "viral dose." There seems very little doubt that exposure to higher dose (as doctors are) means you are more likely to get it and to get it worse.
Perhaps the gap should have all but disappeared precisely because David Cameron has moved his own party close to the Labour offering.
Once in power with a minimal gap, you can then move the other direction. Labour did this under Blair/Brown - they pledged to match Tory spending originally then moved away and overspent, while being able to introduce their own priorities like NMW etc
Cameron did the same trick. He moved close to the Labour government, originally pledging to match Labour's overspending then once in office moved away - Blair/Brown's government wouldn't have had an EU referendum etc
You view Labour narrowing the gap so its close to the government as an awful concept. Maybe its what you need to do to allow the public to take that leap to you - and then you can pull in the direction you want to do so. You don't take a big gap and widen it to a chasm and expect a miracle.
That is a reasonable description of what has sometimes gone before but I see no good reason to aspire to it. Post corona, post Brexit, the political landscape will be utterly transformed. As it was to a lesser extent anyway by GE19. Labour need to develop an offering that works for this new world but keeps to the core values. "Move back to the centre" is not a useful description of the required process. "Stay radical but modernize" works much better. In fact, I think I will send that in to Keir.
After such a shock to the system I am not at all convinced that the British public will be in the mood for radicalisation.
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
It might be more a question of normalising radical solutions. The left around the world may want to normalise far greater social benefits and insurance, and the right more closed borders, for instance.
That is true. We hosed money at society in times of crisis let's do just that in normal times.
Ah the good old "Here we stand, waiting for the people".
And what is wrong with that? If the public as a whole do NOT want a substantial redistribution of wealth and opportunity which helps some and hurts others - as it must - then fine. But they should surely not be denied the choice.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
Problem is, the Tories have been moving taxation towards the wealthy and powerful. And won a big majority.
And Labour does not appear to want to offer radical reductions in inequalities of opportunity, other than by reducing opportunities for all. It has left behind the aspirationals who want to climb higher.
But by the same token the Cons have trashed their reputation for fiscal prudence. That has totally gone now. In many ways this is not a Con government it's a "Boris" one. And in any case, the virus has changed everything. God knows what happens next politically.
My daughter and I once drew many chalk drawings on the north bank of the Thames near St. Pauls. I had no idea we were one grumpy policeman away from a fine - though fortunately she was under the age of criminal responsibility at the time.
We could really do with a Home Secretary who wanted to increase our liberties for a change, and who would repeal some legislation, rather than add to it.
Lock us up, lock us up....now hold on, this how thing is going to be a marathon, not a spirit, we have to time our actions right....lock us up, lock us up, why aren't you locking us up...we said, this whole process will take many months, in fact it could be the whole year and our experts say even beyond that....lock us up, lock us up, useless government not taking action.
Ok you are locked up
One week later....
Well this is going to be too long isn't it. We never knew.
I hope Mail readers decide after all this is over to go all Liverpool/The Sun on them. They somehow seem to be going for a tactic of demanding the government do more whilst moaning about the lockdown, getting paps to hide in a bush or something to publicly shame anyone leaving a supermarket with an item that could be classed as non-essential, all the while trying to scare the living bejesus out of everyone by splashing macabre headline after headline of death totals, people who’ve died without “underlying conditions”, gleeful reporting of how bad everything is in Italy, and it goes on and on....
I mean I know the thing is a rag at the best of times but crikey, our media can be ghoulish. Sadly it seems the contrariness and sensationalism has started to infest other more reputable outfits I thought knew better...
I know the notion of 'high viral load' was debunked by Charles on here a few days ago, but how else are medics so much more susceptible to the more serious ramifications of this virus?
Stay safe!
'Viral load' isn't the right phrase for it, but it wasn't really 'debunked' - Charles provided his informed opinion, and another discussion took place later with several posters providing links to medical professionals' work supporting the theory that 'viral dose' does indeed play a part in the severity of a viral infection in many cases. The jury remains out.
Perhaps the gap should have all but disappeared precisely because David Cameron has moved his own party close to the Labour offering.
Once in power with a minimal gap, you can then move the other direction. Labour did this under Blair/Brown - they pledged to match Tory spending originally then moved away and overspent, while being able to introduce their own priorities like NMW etc
Cameron did the same trick. He moved close to the Labour government, originally pledging to match Labour's overspending then once in office moved away - Blair/Brown's government wouldn't have had an EU referendum etc
You view Labour narrowing the gap so its close to the government as an awful concept. Maybe its what you need to do to allow the public to take that leap to you - and then you can pull in the direction you want to do so. You don't take a big gap and widen it to a chasm and expect a miracle.
That is a reasonable description of what has sometimes gone before but I see no good reason to aspire to it. Post corona, post Brexit, the political landscape will be utterly transformed. As it was to a lesser extent anyway by GE19. Labour need to develop an offering that works for this new world but keeps to the core values. "Move back to the centre" is not a useful description of the required process. "Stay radical but modernize" works much better. In fact, I think I will send that in to Keir.
After such a shock to the system I am not at all convinced that the British public will be in the mood for radicalisation.
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
Exactly. The socialists in America who were too cool to vote for Hillary in 2016 excitedly predicted that the consciousness-raising experience of Trumpian carnage would finally bring about the leftist revolution they've dreamed of.
Instead the Democratic Party is curled up in a fetal position, softly sobbing 'Normality, normality, normality, Biden, Biden, Biden...'
If they walked over wouldn’t it be legitimate exercise?
No! Lock them up and throw away the key as a deterrent for the rest of us.
We have had the Vale of Glamorgan Council loudspeaker van around here telling us to all to get inside. We live in a village! The van has already done its rounds in Cowbridge and Llantwit Major apparantly.
Really? Who do they want you to be inside?
Absolutely no idea. A white loudspeaker van that came past here about half an hour ago. It was reported in the Neighbourhood blog earlier too. I assumed it was the Council. Of course it could just be some busybody.
OK, so that’s an awesome pun that didn’t quite come off...
I have a good contrasting display at the front, including a corkscrew hazel, pyracantha, copper beech and variegated holly. I also have an unknown one with dark bark and leaves ... but what is is? I would guess at an Osier. Any ideas?
Unless I am reading it wrong Dr Jenny Harries was gently trying to forewarn the nation that the present situation could continue for some time beyond 3 months towards 6 months and beyond
I have always maintained that at the end of our 12 week isolation we will not suddenly be able to return to normal but will need several months of gradual easing
As far as financial support that will have to continue and yes, at a huge cost
I think that once (hopefully) the peak is reached and numbers start to come down this is going to be the major headache for the government.
How do you relax these restrictions whilst somehow keeping some kind of social distancing arrangement in force? Do you open pubs or do they stay shut? Parks? Offices? Or are we just going to allow people to visit their families but nothing else. How do you enforce that? What can you do to stop people, mad with relief at being able to go out, mixing with large groups of friends?
Believe me that once they say “you can leave the house” that will be it for most people. They won’t give two stuffs about the “but please still be careful” tacked on afterwards.
I think this is a valid theme for a thread
And I really do not have any answers but I cannot see freedom to do as we wish much before the late autumn
The depressing thing is that if it’s not til late autumn that we get back our freedom I fear many will be out of jobs and the state of the country will be an absolute wreck.
As you imply, I don't think an almost total lockdown is tenable for more than 3 or 4 months, without causing irreparable damage to the rest of life as we know it. Let's hope some sort of magic solution is found before then.
Can someone answer me something I have been puzzling over? Exponential models say that you will meet x (say 5) people per day. You will therefore infect a proportion of those, say 3, which (as I understand it) is the R number, every day. However, surely in most societies, you meet the same people over and over again everyday, and you can’t infect them twice. So the R number has to drop. Sure, on public transport you can infect new people, but even there over time most will become infected or immune. There is clearly a hole in my understanding somewhere!
I believe the R0 figure is the average you will infect total not per day
Can someone answer me something I have been puzzling over? Exponential models say that you will meet x (say 5) people per day. You will therefore infect a proportion of those, say 3, which (as I understand it) is the R number, every day. However, surely in most societies, you meet the same people over and over again everyday, and you can’t infect them twice. So the R number has to drop. Sure, on public transport you can infect new people, but even there over time most will become infected or immune. There is clearly a hole in my understanding somewhere!
Herd immunity threshold is thought to occur at 1 - (1/R0). So with R0 of 3, then 66% of population = herd immunity...
AIUI herd immunity doesn’t mean the virus disappears, merely that minor local outbreaks don’t have capacity (i.e. sufficient new victims) to break out into a new epidemic?
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Actually, medical and scientific experts have chalked up quite a few failures, but are still treated with reverence - presumably due to our healthy fear of death. It's only the spectacular ones like Thalidomide that tend to get noticed. Hard to ignore babies being born with no limbs.
After such a shock to the system I am not at all convinced that the British public will be in the mood for radicalisation.
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
Well we'll be broke. So how that plays out, I don't know. In a way one hopes that "radical" is not the path chosen. If you know what I mean.
I know the notion of 'high viral load' was debunked by Charles on here a few days ago, but how else are medics so much more susceptible to the more serious ramifications of this virus?
Stay safe!
'Viral load' isn't the right phrase for it, but it wasn't really 'debunked' - Charles provided his informed opinion, and another discussion took place later with several posters providing links to medical professionals' work supporting the theory that 'viral dose' does indeed play a part in the severity of a viral infection in many cases. The jury remains out.
Thanks. IshmaelZ has already confirmed my abject education by my misrepresenting viral load for viral dose. Apologies to all.
Can someone answer me something I have been puzzling over? Exponential models say that you will meet x (say 5) people per day. You will therefore infect a proportion of those, say 3, which (as I understand it) is the R number, every day. However, surely in most societies, you meet the same people over and over again everyday, and you can’t infect them twice. So the R number has to drop. Sure, on public transport you can infect new people, but even there over time most will become infected or immune. There is clearly a hole in my understanding somewhere!
Herd immunity threshold is thought to occur at 1 - (1/R0). So with R0 of 3, then 66% of population = herd immunity...
AIUI herd immunity doesn’t mean the virus disappears, merely that minor local outbreaks don’t have capacity (i.e. sufficient new victims) to break out into a new epidemic?
Maybe at the beginning they could have asked people to select a group of people/family and then make that a closed group so that they could associate with members of the group but not outside it.
How big would the groups have been? Some arbitrary size bounded by distance or somesuch.
Strange to reflect on the light evenings now with us - in other times perfect for a walk (and they will be again one day).
Just looking at some other polling and Merkel's CDU/CSU, along with many other incumbent Governments, enjoying a polling boost. The Union is at 32% (+4) and their highest rating for some time.
Conversely, the Greens are down on 19% (-2) with the SPD continuing their revival on 18% (+2) and AfD on 11% (-2).
That would put the existing coalition Government close to a majority.
The Forsa poll was even better for Merkel with the Union on 36%, Greens on 17% and the SPD on 16%.
If you want some evidence the virus is helping Governments of all stripes, the socialist PS in Portugal are now 17 points of the centre-right opposition PSD (42-25). Note the populist Chega has gone from 1% to 8% in a month.
Meanwhile, in Greece the New Democrat Govenrment has a massive 25 point lead (51-26) over Syriza in the latest poll.
Not all Governments are seeing a boost in popularity - the polls haven't moved much in Italy or Austria.
Ah the good old "Here we stand, waiting for the people".
And what is wrong with that? If the public as a whole do NOT want a substantial redistribution of wealth and opportunity which helps some and hurts others - as it must - then fine. But they should surely not be denied the choice.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
... by cutting FE, OU and school budgets and by imposing high interest rate loans on those who cannot afford to buy their way through university?
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Actually, medical and scientific experts have chalked up quite a few failures, but are still treated with reverence - presumably due to our healthy fear of death. It's only the spectacular ones like Thalidomide that tend to get noticed. Hard to ignore babies being born with no limbs.
Thalidomide was an example of not doing the science right - testing the actual product instead of the lab made one. Ciral chemistry....
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Actually, medical and scientific experts have chalked up quite a few failures, but are still treated with reverence - presumably due to our healthy fear of death. It's only the spectacular ones like Thalidomide that tend to get noticed. Hard to ignore babies being born with no limbs.
It was however a failure of not knowing enough about how drugs crossed the placental barrier and in the wake of it regulatory regimes were at least changed. Science does not know everything and sometimes the unknowns come along and bite you and its a risk that cannot be mitigated.
Economists on the other hand seem to have a habit of being continuously wrong about all major stuff.
After such a shock to the system I am not at all convinced that the British public will be in the mood for radicalisation.
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
Well we'll be broke. So how that plays out, I don't know. In a way one hopes that "radical" is not the path chosen. If you know what I mean.
Yes and this comes back to my comment on Boris. Perhaps there is no other way but by outsourcing government to Chris Witty it might be that economic concerns are neglected because, and especially for a nation partial to the odd Range Rover Evoque on the never never, we don't want to worry about money right now.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
Germany has managed to redistribute wealth without making everyone poorer.
And I refuse to believe the Germans are cleverer than us - lower corona death rate or no lower corona death rate.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
You want to see a PB consensus?
Really? I mean - really?
The only consensus we have on PB is that pineapple on pizza is shit.
There are even people who don’t like my awesome puns.
Perhaps the gap should have all but disappeared precisely because David Cameron has moved his own party close to the Labour offering.
Once in power with a minimal gap, you can then move the other direction. Labour did this under Blair/Brown - they pledged to match Tory spending originally then moved away and overspent, while being able to introduce their own priorities like NMW etc
Cameron did the same trick. He moved close to the Labour government, originally pledging to match Labour's overspending then once in office moved away - Blair/Brown's government wouldn't have had an EU referendum etc
You view Labour narrowing the gap so its close to the government as an awful concept. Maybe its what you need to do to allow the public to take that leap to you - and then you can pull in the direction you want to do so. You don't take a big gap and widen it to a chasm and expect a miracle.
That is a reasonable description of what has sometimes gone before but I see no good reason to aspire to it. Post corona, post Brexit, the political landscape will be utterly transformed. As it was to a lesser extent anyway by GE19. Labour need to develop an offering that works for this new world but keeps to the core values. "Move back to the centre" is not a useful description of the required process. "Stay radical but modernize" works much better. In fact, I think I will send that in to Keir.
After such a shock to the system I am not at all convinced that the British public will be in the mood for radicalisation.
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
Exactly. The socialists in America who were too cool to vote for Hillary in 2016 excitedly predicted that the consciousness-raising experience of Trumpian carnage would finally bring about the leftist revolution they've dreamed of.
Instead the Democratic Party is curled up in a fetal position, softly sobbing 'Normality, normality, normality, Biden, Biden, Biden...'
I would say it's more about what seems radical after a big change. Socialism seemed a lot less radical in 1945 than 1939 - it's yet to be proved that we're in for that scale of transformation yet, however.
Can someone answer me something I have been puzzling over? Exponential models say that you will meet x (say 5) people per day. You will therefore infect a proportion of those, say 3, which (as I understand it) is the R number, every day. However, surely in most societies, you meet the same people over and over again everyday, and you can’t infect them twice. So the R number has to drop. Sure, on public transport you can infect new people, but even there over time most will become infected or immune. There is clearly a hole in my understanding somewhere!
R0 is the number you infect over the whole period of the illness. If every infected person infected three people every day, then growth would look like this: 1 4 16 64 256 Etc
My daughter and I once drew many chalk drawings on the north bank of the Thames near St. Pauls. I had no idea we were one grumpy policeman away from a fine - though fortunately she was under the age of criminal responsibility at the time.
We could really do with a Home Secretary who wanted to increase our liberties for a change, and who would repeal some legislation, rather than add to it.
One of my favourite Palmerston quotes is the one where he said:
'We cannot go on adding to the Statute Book ad infinitum. Perhaps we may have a little law reform, or bankruptcy reform; but we cannot go on legislating for ever.'
I love the idea of just stopping at some point because the laws we have are fine and anyway book is getting too full. It is full of mid-to-late Victorian pomp.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Actually, medical and scientific experts have chalked up quite a few failures, but are still treated with reverence - presumably due to our healthy fear of death. It's only the spectacular ones like Thalidomide that tend to get noticed. Hard to ignore babies being born with no limbs.
Ah the good old "Here we stand, waiting for the people".
And what is wrong with that? If the public as a whole do NOT want a substantial redistribution of wealth and opportunity which helps some and hurts others - as it must - then fine. But they should surely not be denied the choice.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
... by cutting FE, OU and school budgets and by imposing high interest rate loans on those who cannot afford to buy their way through university?
And I have advocated any of those when? Clue I don't vote Tory and haven't done since they moved left.
I would prefer to see vocational courses and ou course subsidised for the poor and unemployed. University fees are different however as that is largely down to the asinine insistence that 50% should goto university. Put it back to 10 to 15% selected purely on merit and have it free.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
You want to see a PB consensus?
Really? I mean - really?
The only consensus we have on PB is that pineapple on pizza is shit.
There are even people who don’t like my awesome puns.
There is certainly not a pizza consensus.
More chance of a Marmite consensus!
What a strange analogy - everybody with any sense loves Marmite!
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Actually, medical and scientific experts have chalked up quite a few failures, but are still treated with reverence - presumably due to our healthy fear of death. It's only the spectacular ones like Thalidomide that tend to get noticed. Hard to ignore babies being born with no limbs.
If they get this one wrong, it will be noticed.
We were never going to weld people into their own homes will be quite a generous excuse repository.
Watching across the news channels they seem to be focusing on Dr Jenny Harries's comments over the lockdown and possibility of it continuing over 6 months and the implications
I suspect the media will now move from testing to what do you do if it is 6 months lockdown
When I first heard the criticisms of the delay in starting the lockdown I thought that there might be something in them and it could well be that in hindsight large gatherings should have been banned earlier. I also fell into the trap of thinking that the delay was "merely" to reduce economic and education impacts (actually valid considerations) and could be risky if they got the virus spread modelling wrong.
Now that we are into it and facing weeks more I think the authorities are genuinely worried about how long it can hold and so tried to hit optimal timing. I'm confident in stating that most of us on this site are middle class and living in relatively comfortable and spacious housing. What about crowded flat shares, households with alcoholics and drug addicts, illegal overcrowding in urban areas, living in close proximity to somebody playing load music 24 hours a day? Couples physically seperated by chance. Add all that to the economic insecurity despite pretty good government counter measures.
The spread of the virus is not the only thing that is exponential, so is the increase in damage to society as the length of the lockdown increases.
For this reason I think we may get a series of a month lockdown, then a month or two off, repeated a few times to strike a balance.
One facebook acquaintance has gone straight from demanding a LOCKDOWN NOW - to demanding the schools reopen NOW.
Apparently a couple of days of the reality of a lockdown is too much...
Id guess at least a quarter of households will have someone who wont cope with a month long lockdown. Very few will cope with a three month lockdown going into summer.
Unless you are limited to a very small flat I cannot see what the issue is if you have food, water , beer and broadband. Anyone in a decent house with a garden , will be fine and I imagine that is the majority. Can imagine that living in London will be hellish but such is life.
Your imagination needs to be stretched. How about:
Fear of losing job Wondering where next meal is coming Missing human contact and touch Lack of Vitamin D Lack of exercise Living next to noisy neighbours Violent person living in your household Restless kids living in your household Caring for a vulnerable person and being scared of infecting them Fear of criminality and rioting
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
Germany has managed to redistribute wealth without making everyone poorer.
And I refuse to believe the Germans are cleverer than us - lower corona death rate or no lower corona death rate.
The Germans have plenty of uber rich - check out the German private banks....
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
Germany has managed to redistribute wealth without making everyone poorer.
And I refuse to believe the Germans are cleverer than us - lower corona death rate or no lower corona death rate.
The thing with Germany is they don't have the UK snobbery about non-academic education.
Ah the good old "Here we stand, waiting for the people".
And what is wrong with that? If the public as a whole do NOT want a substantial redistribution of wealth and opportunity which helps some and hurts others - as it must - then fine. But they should surely not be denied the choice.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
... by cutting FE, OU and school budgets and by imposing high interest rate loans on those who cannot afford to buy their way through university?
And I have advocated any of those when? Clue I don't vote Tory and haven't done since they moved left.
I would prefer to see vocational courses and ou course subsidised for the poor and unemployed. University fees are different however as that is largely down to the asinine insistence that 50% should goto university. Put it back to 10 to 15% selected purely on merit and have it free.
One of our neighbours kindly brought us a bag of shopping when they went to the supermarket today.
We are still finding a range of more specialist online suppliers who are taking orders for delivery in the next few days. Dolphin Fitness was the latest.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Actually, medical and scientific experts have chalked up quite a few failures, but are still treated with reverence - presumably due to our healthy fear of death. It's only the spectacular ones like Thalidomide that tend to get noticed. Hard to ignore babies being born with no limbs.
Thalidomide was an example of not doing the science right - testing the actual product instead of the lab made one. Ciral chemistry....
I know the notion of 'high viral load' was debunked by Charles on here a few days ago, but how else are medics so much more susceptible to the more serious ramifications of this virus?
Stay safe!
'Viral load' isn't the right phrase for it, but it wasn't really 'debunked' - Charles provided his informed opinion, and another discussion took place later with several posters providing links to medical professionals' work supporting the theory that 'viral dose' does indeed play a part in the severity of a viral infection in many cases. The jury remains out.
Thanks. IshmaelZ has already confirmed my abject education by my misrepresenting viral load for viral dose. Apologies to all.
You misunderstand me! The *original* discussion was derailed (in my view) into one about the trivial error involved in saying load when you mean dose. Your substantive point, that dose makes a difference, seems to be entirely correct.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Actually, medical and scientific experts have chalked up quite a few failures, but are still treated with reverence - presumably due to our healthy fear of death. It's only the spectacular ones like Thalidomide that tend to get noticed. Hard to ignore babies being born with no limbs.
If they get this one wrong, it will be noticed.
We were never going to weld people into their own homes will be quite a generous excuse repository.
Watching across the news channels they seem to be focusing on Dr Jenny Harries's comments over the lockdown and possibility of it continuing over 6 months and the implications
I suspect the media will now move from testing to what do you do if it is 6 months lockdown
Well they should be keeping up the pressure on testing tbh.
What we need to see is a test plan stretching forwards - how many tests of each type are predicted to be completed each day and then how much progress is being made every day against that plan.
By a simplified R0 approximation (a 3 day rolling tally of new cases vs the same period the previous week), Italy's R0 falls to 0.95, below 1 for the first time. Probably reflects the level of spread, within and without the home, around 10 days ago.
R0 still needs to go down further to squash new case numbers to very low levels, but you'd hope they've minimised spread between households, and uninfected people within infected households are reducing in number.
For contrast the current UK and US, pre-lockdown, figures are 3.25 and 3.6 respectively.
Does anyone know how Tesco allot slots. None are available up to April 18 and it keeps telling me to try another slot.. when there aren't any...
Customer service does not accept calls just short message. and then discontinued.
At present, they're not offering deliveries to new customers, unless you're on the "very high risk" list which GPs have provided to the Government and they've passed on to supermarkets (GDPR? Oh well). However, many county councils are I think offering links to local volunteer services which are coming up trumps if you can't safely use a supermarket because of age or disabiulity - we have a good one in Surrey and I'm sure other areas are doing the same.
And yes, yes, it's a Tory council, and my very non-Tory borough council is working closely with them (with the agreement of local Tories). Party politics at local level has never seemed less relevant.
I know the notion of 'high viral load' was debunked by Charles on here a few days ago, but how else are medics so much more susceptible to the more serious ramifications of this virus?
Stay safe!
'Viral load' isn't the right phrase for it, but it wasn't really 'debunked' - Charles provided his informed opinion, and another discussion took place later with several posters providing links to medical professionals' work supporting the theory that 'viral dose' does indeed play a part in the severity of a viral infection in many cases. The jury remains out.
Thanks. IshmaelZ has already confirmed my abject education by my misrepresenting viral load for viral dose. Apologies to all.
You misunderstand me! The *original* discussion was derailed (in my view) into one about the trivial error involved in saying load when you mean dose. Your substantive point, that dose makes a difference, seems to be entirely correct.
It seems to be entirely plausible to me... but is there any hard evidence to support it?
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Actually, medical and scientific experts have chalked up quite a few failures, but are still treated with reverence - presumably due to our healthy fear of death. It's only the spectacular ones like Thalidomide that tend to get noticed. Hard to ignore babies being born with no limbs.
If they get this one wrong, it will be noticed.
I doubt it would be noticed for a very long time. What if the cure for Covid-19 is a mustard plaster and a big mug of Bovril? Or it's efficiently and effectively spread by air conditioning vents and we've kept those on all the time whilst frantically washing our hands? We won't have a full picture for years and years.
My daughter and I once drew many chalk drawings on the north bank of the Thames near St. Pauls. I had no idea we were one grumpy policeman away from a fine - though fortunately she was under the age of criminal responsibility at the time.
We could really do with a Home Secretary who wanted to increase our liberties for a change, and who would repeal some legislation, rather than add to it.
One of my favourite Palmerston quotes is the one where he said:
'We cannot go on adding to the Statute Book ad infinitum. Perhaps we may have a little law reform, or bankruptcy reform; but we cannot go on legislating for ever.'
I love the idea of just stopping at some point because the laws we have are fine and anyway book is getting too full. It is full of mid-to-late Victorian pomp.
Not as good as the bloke who said we basically knew all about the whole of physics in about 1900.
And actually I think 'fetish' is precisely le mot juste. Let's take the random example of a successful person from the world of commerce - an ex-City bond trader, for instance - who likes to have a lady come round every so often to inflict pain and humiliation upon him in return for a generous fee. Voting Labour is a lot like that for many rich idealists - except that instead of Madame Dangerous, it's John McDonnell rummaging through your cavities for cash with a wicked smile on his face...
Personally, I've never been able to understand the appeal of either
I can blow that hackneyed amateur psychiatry straight up. I was intensely Left from the age of 11. In fact I had a letter published in the Daily Express in their "Young Voice Of Britain" space in which I railed - at the age of 11 - against the phrase the "politics of envy" - describing at as a "strawman of the softhead right used with the intention of dumbing down debate". I got £5 for it being published, which as I recall I spent on a Sheffield Wednesday subbuteo team.
Ah the good old "Here we stand, waiting for the people".
And what is wrong with that? If the public as a whole do NOT want a substantial redistribution of wealth and opportunity which helps some and hurts others - as it must - then fine. But they should surely not be denied the choice.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
... by cutting FE, OU and school budgets and by imposing high interest rate loans on those who cannot afford to buy their way through university?
And I have advocated any of those when? Clue I don't vote Tory and haven't done since they moved left.
I would prefer to see vocational courses and ou course subsidised for the poor and unemployed. University fees are different however as that is largely down to the asinine insistence that 50% should goto university. Put it back to 10 to 15% selected purely on merit and have it free.
Merit determined how?
I would suggest it should be based upon the likelihood to succeed in the subject. I am not an expert at education so cannot give any real details on what it should be only how it should in my opinion work.
It cannot be a test that you can be taught to pass The testee's must be anonymous to the marker It should fairly test people of any gender or demographic (for example I believe iq is biassed to europeans somehow)
For each subject you take the top however many places.
I know the notion of 'high viral load' was debunked by Charles on here a few days ago, but how else are medics so much more susceptible to the more serious ramifications of this virus?
Stay safe!
'Viral load' isn't the right phrase for it, but it wasn't really 'debunked' - Charles provided his informed opinion, and another discussion took place later with several posters providing links to medical professionals' work supporting the theory that 'viral dose' does indeed play a part in the severity of a viral infection in many cases. The jury remains out.
Thanks. IshmaelZ has already confirmed my abject education by my misrepresenting viral load for viral dose. Apologies to all.
You misunderstand me! The *original* discussion was derailed (in my view) into one about the trivial error involved in saying load when you mean dose. Your substantive point, that dose makes a difference, seems to be entirely correct.
It seems to be entirely plausible to me... but is there any hard evidence to support it?
If they walked over wouldn’t it be legitimate exercise?
No! Lock them up and throw away the key as a deterrent for the rest of us.
We have had the Vale of Glamorgan Council loudspeaker van around here telling us to all to get inside. We live in a village! The van has already done its rounds in Cowbridge and Llantwit Major apparantly.
Really? Who do they want you to be inside?
Absolutely no idea. A white loudspeaker van that came past here about half an hour ago. It was reported in the Neighbourhood blog earlier too. I assumed it was the Council. Of course it could just be some busybody.
OK, so that’s an awesome pun that didn’t quite come off...
No intended pun. Sorry.
Aargh! It was me that was attempting the pun!
I do apologise I missed it!
In fairness it was so out of character for ydoethur it would be easy to miss.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
You want to see a PB consensus?
Really? I mean - really?
The only consensus we have on PB is that pineapple on pizza is shit.
There are even people who don’t like my awesome puns.
There is certainly not a pizza consensus.
More chance of a Marmite consensus!
What a strange analogy - everybody with any sense loves Marmite!
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
Germany has managed to redistribute wealth without making everyone poorer.
And I refuse to believe the Germans are cleverer than us - lower corona death rate or no lower corona death rate.
The Germans have plenty of uber rich - check out the German private banks....
The CIA publishes "gini coefficients" on income inequality. (The lower the number, the less income inequality.)
The US is 45 The UK is 32 Germany is 27
In other words, we have greater inequality than Germany but we are more like them than the US.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
Germany has managed to redistribute wealth without making everyone poorer.
And I refuse to believe the Germans are cleverer than us - lower corona death rate or no lower corona death rate.
The Germans have plenty of uber rich - check out the German private banks....
The top rate of income tax in Germany is also the same as in the UK
If they walked over wouldn’t it be legitimate exercise?
No! Lock them up and throw away the key as a deterrent for the rest of us.
We have had the Vale of Glamorgan Council loudspeaker van around here telling us to all to get inside. We live in a village! The van has already done its rounds in Cowbridge and Llantwit Major apparantly.
Really? Who do they want you to be inside?
Absolutely no idea. A white loudspeaker van that came past here about half an hour ago. It was reported in the Neighbourhood blog earlier too. I assumed it was the Council. Of course it could just be some busybody.
OK, so that’s an awesome pun that didn’t quite come off...
No intended pun. Sorry.
Aargh! It was me that was attempting the pun!
I do apologise I missed it!
In fairness it was so out of character for ydoethur it would be easy to miss.
Ydoethur's puns are normally bitingly sharp. On this occassion I genuinely didn't even notice it.
I was perhaps too busy confusing my 'viral loads' with my 'viral doses'.
I have a good contrasting display at the front, including a corkscrew hazel, pyracantha, copper beech and variegated holly. I also have an unknown one with dark bark and leaves ... but what is is? I would guess at an Osier. Any ideas?
Oh well, guess there won't be any Redbridge in Bloom this year
My dear old Mum won with her front garden last year (2019), was runner up in 2018, couldn't enter during 2017 and 2016 due to house building works, but won in 2015, plus a few times between then and 2004.
She's resorted this season to merely planting a few salad seeds and chilli plants out the back, and we're seeing if a bunch of mung beans germinate on our kitchen window sill.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
Germany has managed to redistribute wealth without making everyone poorer.
And I refuse to believe the Germans are cleverer than us - lower corona death rate or no lower corona death rate.
The Germans have plenty of uber rich - check out the German private banks....
The CIA publishes "gini coefficients" on income inequality. (The lower the number, the less income inequality.)
The US is 45 The UK is 32 Germany is 27
In other words, we have greater inequality than Germany but we are more like them than the US.
Britain has more equal wealth (as opposed to income) than Germany.
Imperial's the Oxford of London isn't it? What an utter dump.
The scientist who last week projected 5,700 coronavirus deaths in Britain has said new data suggests that was a significant underestimate and the country is in a very “dangerous state”.
Tom Pike, from Imperial College, had calculated the likely death rate in Britain by assuming that our outbreak followed a similar trajectory to that seen in Wuhan, China. His paper predicted that, at its highest, Britain would see 260 deaths a day. That number was, however, reached over the weekend, and the rate of increase in deaths still seemed to be rising.
Professor Pike said this changed the results entirely. “We don’t know where that uptick is going to go, or if it will keep going in the same direction,” he said. “That’s critical in terms of the projected total deaths. If we don’t regain the Wuhan trajectory, each day we are building up more deaths. It’s a very dangerous state to be in.”
Imperial's the Oxford of London isn't it? What an utter dump.
The scientist who last week projected 5,700 coronavirus deaths in Britain has said new data suggests that was a significant underestimate and the country is in a very “dangerous state”.
Tom Pike, from Imperial College, had calculated the likely death rate in Britain by assuming that our outbreak followed a similar trajectory to that seen in Wuhan, China. His paper predicted that, at its highest, Britain would see 260 deaths a day. That number was, however, reached over the weekend, and the rate of increase in deaths still seemed to be rising.
Professor Pike said this changed the results entirely. “We don’t know where that uptick is going to go, or if it will keep going in the same direction,” he said. “That’s critical in terms of the projected total deaths. If we don’t regain the Wuhan trajectory, each day we are building up more deaths. It’s a very dangerous state to be in.”
Perhaps the gap should have all but disappeared precisely because David Cameron has moved his own party close to the Labour offering.
Once in power with a minimal gap, you can then move the other direction. Labour did this under Blair/Brown - they pledged to match Tory spending originally then moved away and overspent, while being able to introduce their own priorities like NMW etc
Cameron did the same trick. He moved close to the Labour government, originally pledging to match Labour's overspending then once in office moved away - Blair/Brown's government wouldn't have had an EU referendum etc
You view Labour narrowing the gap so its close to the government as an awful concept. Maybe its what you need to do to allow the public to take that leap to you - and then you can pull in the direction you want to do so. You don't take a big gap and widen it to a chasm and expect a miracle.
That is a reasonable description of what has sometimes gone before but I see no good reason to aspire to it. Post corona, post Brexit, the political landscape will be utterly transformed. As it was to a lesser extent anyway by GE19. Labour need to develop an offering that works for this new world but keeps to the core values. "Move back to the centre" is not a useful description of the required process. "Stay radical but modernize" works much better. In fact, I think I will send that in to Keir.
After such a shock to the system I am not at all convinced that the British public will be in the mood for radicalisation.
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
It might be more a question of normalising radical solutions. The left around the world may want to normalise far greater social benefits and insurance, and the right more closed borders, for instance.
That is true. We hosed money at society in times of crisis let's do just that in normal times.
It was how they felt after WW2. They didn't want to go back to the hardship of the interwar years with the Jarrow marchers etc. I think it was Tony Benn who said something along the lines of 'We'd had a command economy to win the war, why not do the same to win the peace?'.
Sadly, that approach led to massive ongoing stagnation and economic decline, the disastrous waste of time of joining the then EEC, and the jolting reforms of Thatcherism.
Imperial's the Oxford of London isn't it? What an utter dump.
The scientist who last week projected 5,700 coronavirus deaths in Britain has said new data suggests that was a significant underestimate and the country is in a very “dangerous state”.
Tom Pike, from Imperial College, had calculated the likely death rate in Britain by assuming that our outbreak followed a similar trajectory to that seen in Wuhan, China. His paper predicted that, at its highest, Britain would see 260 deaths a day. That number was, however, reached over the weekend, and the rate of increase in deaths still seemed to be rising.
Professor Pike said this changed the results entirely. “We don’t know where that uptick is going to go, or if it will keep going in the same direction,” he said. “That’s critical in terms of the projected total deaths. If we don’t regain the Wuhan trajectory, each day we are building up more deaths. It’s a very dangerous state to be in.”
Watching across the news channels they seem to be focusing on Dr Jenny Harries's comments over the lockdown and possibility of it continuing over 6 months and the implications
I suspect the media will now move from testing to what do you do if it is 6 months lockdown
6 months is a very strange time as would mean stopping the restrictions just before the flu season. That seems to make no sense. If 6 months is possible so is 9 or even a year.
Id imagine it is said out of a desire to be cautious and emphasise the severity of the problem, rather than as an indication of when the restrictions will end.
The british public aren't so stupid as to believe labour are offering a redistribution of wealth and opportunity is why. You are only offering to redistribute wealth. The poor will largely just take the handout and say thanks and do nothing to change their lives for the better. When labour talks about redressing inequality most people know it means making everyone equally poor.
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
Germany has managed to redistribute wealth without making everyone poorer.
And I refuse to believe the Germans are cleverer than us - lower corona death rate or no lower corona death rate.
The Germans have plenty of uber rich - check out the German private banks....
The CIA publishes "gini coefficients" on income inequality. (The lower the number, the less income inequality.)
The US is 45 The UK is 32 Germany is 27
In other words, we have greater inequality than Germany but we are more like them than the US.
There are 16 million odd households in germany with a net income of less than 2000 euros. These are the people labour would be calling "living in poverty" in the uk.
Was having a chat with some friends and the subject of "experts" came up. Everyone thought it was weird that no one believed "experts" wrt Brexit but are ready to be told to stay indoors for 12 weeks by these ones.
I have my theory. Want to see what the PB consensus is.
These experts are Doctors, the voters trust Doctors, especially the ones that work for the NHS.
Not strange at all.
The predictions by the 'experts' wrt Brexit were often shown to be baloney. Huge fall in house prices due to just the vote ! Half a million unemployed !
When your predictions don't happen, you lose credibility.
Ask King Cnut.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Didn't doctors used to recommend cigarettes if you had a cough?
Comments
Sainsbury's don't even accept new customers...
A little worrying with my 71 year old mum living with me! I could go out to the local shops, but I don't want to risk bringing back any lurgie!
Stay safe!
And actually I think 'fetish' is precisely le mot juste. Let's take the random example of a successful person from the world of commerce - an ex-City bond trader, for instance - who likes to have a lady come round every so often to inflict pain and humiliation upon him in return for a generous fee. Voting Labour is a lot like that for many rich idealists - except that instead of Madame Dangerous, it's John McDonnell rummaging through your cavities for cash with a wicked smile on his face...
Personally, I've never been able to understand the appeal of either
You can get access to priority home delivery slots by calling us on 0800 953 4988
https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/delivery-prioritisation
I would have thought their outlook would more likely fit the dictionary definition of conservative. Getting everything back to the way it was as soon as possible.
I just can't see an appetite for radical anything.
Goes back further than that, we were told by economic experts it would be a disaster if we didn't join the ERM, we did & it was a disaster
We were told by many of the same experts that if we didn't join the Euro it would be a disaster,we didn't & the reverse turned out to be true.
Again none of these experts predicted the financial crash in 2008.
The so called economic experts have a track record of failure whereas medical & scientific experts don't..
Today's Q (5).
I have a good contrasting display at the front, including a corkscrew hazel, pyracantha, copper beech and variegated holly. I also have an unknown one with dark bark and leaves ... but what is is? I would guess at an Osier. Any ideas?
Thanks
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1244291349257637893
We've got the dreamers disease...."
Brand New Radicals
(C) 1998 - early Blair era....
https://www.healio.com/hematology-oncology/news/print/hemonc-today/{241d62a7-fe6e-4c5b-9fed-a33cc6e4bd7c}/cigarettes-were-once-physician-tested-approved
The old adage is give a man a fish he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish he will eat for life.
Labour gives a fish
Right wing people like me prefer to teach people to fish
My daughter and I once drew many chalk drawings on the north bank of the Thames near St. Pauls. I had no idea we were one grumpy policeman away from a fine - though fortunately she was under the age of criminal responsibility at the time.
We could really do with a Home Secretary who wanted to increase our liberties for a change, and who would repeal some legislation, rather than add to it.
I mean I know the thing is a rag at the best of times but crikey, our media can be ghoulish. Sadly it seems the contrariness and sensationalism has started to infest other more reputable outfits I thought knew better...
Instead the Democratic Party is curled up in a fetal position, softly sobbing 'Normality, normality, normality, Biden, Biden, Biden...'
Bits of it also talk about "vulnerable" as well. Other bits don't.
Badly written.
https://images.app.goo.gl/tuNo9oY2KPKNZLKE9
How big would the groups have been? Some arbitrary size bounded by distance or somesuch.
Strange to reflect on the light evenings now with us - in other times perfect for a walk (and they will be again one day).
Just looking at some other polling and Merkel's CDU/CSU, along with many other incumbent Governments, enjoying a polling boost. The Union is at 32% (+4) and their highest rating for some time.
Conversely, the Greens are down on 19% (-2) with the SPD continuing their revival on 18% (+2) and AfD on 11% (-2).
That would put the existing coalition Government close to a majority.
The Forsa poll was even better for Merkel with the Union on 36%, Greens on 17% and the SPD on 16%.
If you want some evidence the virus is helping Governments of all stripes, the socialist PS in Portugal are now 17 points of the centre-right opposition PSD (42-25). Note the populist Chega has gone from 1% to 8% in a month.
Meanwhile, in Greece the New Democrat Govenrment has a massive 25 point lead (51-26) over Syriza in the latest poll.
Not all Governments are seeing a boost in popularity - the polls haven't moved much in Italy or Austria.
Economists on the other hand seem to have a habit of being continuously wrong about all major stuff.
And I refuse to believe the Germans are cleverer than us - lower corona death rate or no lower corona death rate.
More chance of a Marmite consensus!
If every infected person infected three people every day, then growth would look like this:
1
4
16
64
256
Etc
'We cannot go on adding to the Statute Book ad infinitum. Perhaps we may have a little law reform, or bankruptcy reform; but we cannot go on legislating for ever.'
I would prefer to see vocational courses and ou course subsidised for the poor and unemployed. University fees are different however as that is largely down to the asinine insistence that 50% should goto university. Put it back to 10 to 15% selected purely on merit and have it free.
I suspect the media will now move from testing to what do you do if it is 6 months lockdown
Fear of losing job
Wondering where next meal is coming
Missing human contact and touch
Lack of Vitamin D
Lack of exercise
Living next to noisy neighbours
Violent person living in your household
Restless kids living in your household
Caring for a vulnerable person and being scared of infecting them
Fear of criminality and rioting
Would be trivial to go on and on.
We are still finding a range of more specialist online suppliers who are taking orders for delivery in the next few days. Dolphin Fitness was the latest.
What we need to see is a test plan stretching forwards - how many tests of each type are predicted to be completed each day and then how much progress is being made every day against that plan.
R0 still needs to go down further to squash new case numbers to very low levels, but you'd hope they've minimised spread between households, and uninfected people within infected households are reducing in number.
For contrast the current UK and US, pre-lockdown, figures are 3.25 and 3.6 respectively.
https://www.surreycc.gov.uk/people-and-community/emergency-planning-and-community-safety/coronavirus/community-support
And yes, yes, it's a Tory council, and my very non-Tory borough council is working closely with them (with the agreement of local Tories). Party politics at local level has never seemed less relevant.
I am not an expert at education so cannot give any real details on what it should be only how it should in my opinion work.
It cannot be a test that you can be taught to pass
The testee's must be anonymous to the marker
It should fairly test people of any gender or demographic (for example I believe iq is biassed to europeans somehow)
For each subject you take the top however many places.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/know-when-to-fold-em.html
The US is 45
The UK is 32
Germany is 27
In other words, we have greater inequality than Germany but we are more like them than the US.
I was perhaps too busy confusing my 'viral loads' with my 'viral doses'.
My dear old Mum won with her front garden last year (2019), was runner up in 2018, couldn't enter during 2017 and 2016 due to house building works, but won in 2015, plus a few times between then and 2004.
She's resorted this season to merely planting a few salad seeds and chilli plants out the back, and we're seeing if a bunch of mung beans germinate on our kitchen window sill.
The scientist who last week projected 5,700 coronavirus deaths in Britain has said new data suggests that was a significant underestimate and the country is in a very “dangerous state”.
Tom Pike, from Imperial College, had calculated the likely death rate in Britain by assuming that our outbreak followed a similar trajectory to that seen in Wuhan, China. His paper predicted that, at its highest, Britain would see 260 deaths a day. That number was, however, reached over the weekend, and the rate of increase in deaths still seemed to be rising.
Professor Pike said this changed the results entirely. “We don’t know where that uptick is going to go, or if it will keep going in the same direction,” he said. “That’s critical in terms of the projected total deaths. If we don’t regain the Wuhan trajectory, each day we are building up more deaths. It’s a very dangerous state to be in.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-scientist-who-predicted-5-700-deaths-now-says-final-toll-will-be-much-higher-k07xpgcvp
Sadly, that approach led to massive ongoing stagnation and economic decline, the disastrous waste of time of joining the then EEC, and the jolting reforms of Thatcherism.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Id imagine it is said out of a desire to be cautious and emphasise the severity of the problem, rather than as an indication of when the restrictions will end.
source https://www.statista.com/statistics/750827/private-household-income-distribution-in-germany/
not a huge difference in wealth D- must try harder