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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now after five years the return of PB NightHawks

For many years a regular feature on PB was nighthawks – an overnight open thread. For some reason we stopped doing it and I am bringing it back following calls by a couple of longstanding PBers.

Read the full story here

IanB2

First!

Like the USA

RobD

Glorious!

rottenborough

Ok. I now feel weird. It is FIVE years since the last nighthawks? Where does the time go?

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

Ok. I now feel weird. It is FIVE years since the last nighthawks? Where does the time go?

3 months in lockdown will go in a blink...

Big_G_NorthWales

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

LostPassword

Random question: What do people think will happen to corporate April Fools jokes?

Will they be canned as not appropriate to the present circumstance?

Will there be many with a pandemic theme?

Big_G_NorthWales

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244651040978452481?s=09

tyson

Hurrah...its back....

Why did it go? Some of the finest pbCOM moments have been played out here....

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Ok. I now feel weird. It is FIVE years since the last nighthawks? Where does the time go?

3 months in lockdown will go in a blink...

Depends whether I run out of bottled beer.

FrancisUrquhart

LostPassword said:

Random question: What do people think will happen to corporate April Fools jokes?

Will they be canned as not appropriate to the present circumstance?

Will there be many with a pandemic theme?

Recipe for disaster for many companies if they get it wrong. I think if I ran a big corporation, I would probably stay clear.

RobD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244651040978452481?s=09

Let the gerrymandering commence!

rottenborough

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

Johnson's lefty critics basically seem to be arguing that being locked down by the state and be made to queue to get into a supermarket was something that should be done sooner rather than later.

Hmm...

blairf

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

Benpointer

Er, does this mean we are no longer constrained to stick rigidly to the thread header topic?

Cyclefree

FrancisUrquhart said:

LostPassword said:

Random question: What do people think will happen to corporate April Fools jokes?

Will they be canned as not appropriate to the present circumstance?

Will there be many with a pandemic theme?

Recipe for disaster for many companies if they get it wrong. I think if I ran a big corporation, I would probably stay clear.

We’ll probably have some idiot policeman claiming it’s against the law.

MarqueeMark

I want the return of 8 smiling Gordons.

It's what the nation needs in these dark times.....

FrancisUrquhart

The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/the-us-just-signed-a-450-million-coronavirus-vaccine-contract-with-johnson--johnson

Nearly a $1bn to be spent, but don't get your hopes up, they haven't even really started yet.

tyson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Stark_Dawning

tyson said:

Hurrah...its back....

Why did it go? Some of the finest pbCOM moments have been played out here....

Ah yes. 2010 election. YouGov daily tracker.

'Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms.'

'Cameron. Pledge a referendum on EU membership. NOW!'

'Osborne has to go.'

'That Michael Crick really is a...'

Richard_Tyndall

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

MarqueeMark

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244651040978452481?s=09

Do we have a ballpark for the seats Tories would have gained/Labour would have lost in December on more updated boundaries?

Theuniondivvie

A lot of people are finding Hopper's painting particularly resonant at the moment. Cold War Steve has got in on some Hopper action.

https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1244680613283745792?s=20

RobD

Benpointer said:

Er, does this mean we are no longer constrained to stick rigidly to the thread header topic?

FINALLY.

SandyRentool

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.

GIN1138

Stark_Dawning said:

tyson said:

Hurrah...its back....

Why did it go? Some of the finest pbCOM moments have been played out here....

Ah yes. 2010 election.

Who knew ten years on we'd have voted for Boris to Get Brexit Done and instead he'd put us all under house arrest while the economy contracts by 15% in one quarter and thousands die of a deadly new virus!!!

Fire Up The Quattro I'm going back to 2010!

Big_G_NorthWales

FrancisUrquhart said:

The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/the-us-just-signed-a-450-million-coronavirus-vaccine-contract-with-johnson--johnson

Nearly a $1bn to be spent, but don't get your hopes up, they haven't even really started yet.

Sky business were discussing it today and it is not expected before mid 2021

blairf

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

look out for the ONS weekly death statistics published tomorrow (and every Tuesday) at 10 AM. These are the only indubitable facts we have in this. death demography is hard (part of my job but i'm no expert). it may turn out behavioural change washes out indirect/directs, competing causes and directs.

FrancisUrquhart

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/the-us-just-signed-a-450-million-coronavirus-vaccine-contract-with-johnson--johnson

Nearly a $1bn to be spent, but don't get your hopes up, they haven't even really started yet.

Sky business were discussing it today and it is not expected before mid 2021

I am not sure I can manage until mid 2021 to have another drink or chocolate bar...

Theuniondivvie

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.

He took his foot off the pedal once he heard that HYUFD was backing him.

SandyRentool

Instead of asking how folks would vote in a nonexistent election, are any of the posters asking their panel how many have had C19 symptoms?

Not quite an antibody test, but better than nowt.

Cyclefree

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

blairf

SandyRentool said:

Instead of asking how folks would vote in a nonexistent election, are any of the posters asking their panel how many have had C19 symptoms?

Not quite an antibody test, but better than nowt.

that will be being polled. 100% stone cold guarantee. by many parties. my anecdata is that this is rife in London ~10% based on aforementioned anecdata.

Foxy

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Didn't Burnham run in 2016 not 2015?

Ed Balls the best choice in 2010?

eristdoof

Wow, I had totally forgotten about PB Nighthawks.

Floater

wow just wow - Trump Presser

Foxy

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

I dont think that possible. If immunity is long lasting then a vaccine is possible.

rottenborough

Floater said:

wow just wow - Trump Presser

what's he done now?

geoffw

BBC's Sophie Hutchinson still telling us viral load is the amount of virus you get infected with.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1244701887582085122

Cyclefree

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/the-us-just-signed-a-450-million-coronavirus-vaccine-contract-with-johnson--johnson

Nearly a $1bn to be spent, but don't get your hopes up, they haven't even really started yet.

Sky business were discussing it today and it is not expected before mid 2021

I really don’t think I can face being locked up for 15 - 18 months.

blairf

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

no. as immunity develops, the chance of the vulnerable meeting someone actively spreading goes down. So they can venture out. this depends on the 'herd immunity' which has got kinda a bad name, but is where we all end up (absent a vaccine)

Cyclefree

Floater said:

wow just wow - Trump Presser

What’s the fool saying now?

rottenborough

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

That is my fear. We are slipping into a dystopia with the best of intentions.

eristdoof

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Richard_Tyndall

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

The theory is that the more people who have had it and have immunity, the less likely it is to spread and reach those who lack immunity. My understanding is that in cases like Italy it is the swamping of the ICU system that has led to a higher proportion of deaths. So I would suppose that overall the chances of both catching it and subsequently dying from it are much reduced if you still lack immunity.

But that is a very cautious layman's interpretation and could be very wide of the mark.

Benpointer

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

That's neither practicable nor desirable imo.

We just have to hope the levels requiring ICU remain manageable and presumably treatment regimes will improve as medical teams learn what works best.

Richard_Tyndall

blairf said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

look out for the ONS weekly death statistics published tomorrow (and every Tuesday) at 10 AM. These are the only indubitable facts we have in this. death demography is hard (part of my job but i'm no expert). it may turn out behavioural change washes out indirect/directs, competing causes and directs.

It was interesting to see someone had posted similar stats from Spanish regions on here earlier today. They were terrifying.

bigjohnowls

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.

All candidates except Corbyn pivoted to austerity light.

I was going to vote Burnham until he joined YC and L4%K in dropping opposition to austerity.

IanB2

Richard_Tyndall said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

The theory is that the more people who have had it and have immunity, the less likely it is to spread and reach those who lack immunity. My understanding is that in cases like Italy it is the swamping of the ICU system that has led to a higher proportion of deaths. So I would suppose that overall the chances of both catching it and subsequently dying from it are much reduced if you still lack immunity.

But that is a very cautious layman's interpretation and could be very wide of the mark.

That’s my understanding too. By reducing the chance of their getting it, we make sure we have the capacity to cope with those that do.

Andy_JS

Why did NightHawks ever disappear from PB? That's the big question.

FF43

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.

This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.

We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.

Sunil_Prasannan

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Didn't Burnham run in 2016 not 2015?

Ed Balls the best choice in 2010?

Owen Smith ran in 2016.

SandyRentool

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Didn't Burnham run in 2016 not 2015?

Ed Balls the best choice in 2010?

No, 2016 was Owen Jones.

I mean Owen Smith. Near enough.

IanB2

FF43 said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.

This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.

We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.

I thought it was 60%? Although of course in reality it’s a sliding scale.

rottenborough

Local news talking about improved air quality as roads empty.

Electric cars can't come soon enough.

Andy_JS

Anyone concerned that the current situation might be used as a reason to threaten civil liberties in the future won't be reassured by this new Jeremy Cliffe article in the New Statesman.

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2020/03/rise-bio-surveillance-state

Foxy

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Didn't Burnham run in 2016 not 2015?

Ed Balls the best choice in 2010?

Owen Smith ran in 2016.

Yes, it is all coming back to me now.

SandyRentool

OK. Time for bed. Food delivery coming tomorrow. Sadly it is all healthy and nutritious.

Stay safe comrades.

Charles

Bloody hell. Was nighthawks really 5 years ago?

Damn I’m getting old!

Cyclefree

eristdoof said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.

I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.

Foxy

Cyclefree said:

Floater said:

wow just wow - Trump Presser

What’s the fool saying now?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1244739955731107840?s=19

Andy_JS

"On Monday, former supreme court justice Lord Sumption said that excessive measures were in danger of turning Britain into a “police state”, singling out Derbyshire police – which deployed drones and dyed a lagoon black – for “trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells”."

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumption

blairf

FF43 said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.

This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.

We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.

every toy model i've seen suggests the absolute best course is isolating the infected. virtual leper colonies. you can achieve this brutally or not. but that is the No. 1 successful strategy from all the toy models i've seen. and toy models have a habit of being close to the most sophisticated ones.

GIN1138

Andy_JS said:

Anyone concerned that the current situation might be used as a reason to threaten civil liberties in the future won't be reassured by this new Jeremy Cliffe article in the New Statesman.

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2020/03/rise-bio-surveillance-state

I think the idea that future governments will want to repeat this nightmare for made up reasons is silly.

In a few weeks we're going to see near economic oblivion due to this virus and lock-down.

No government in their right mind will want to see a repeat of this in the next one hundred years... And despite the current poll rating I still the the Tories are done for at the next election as no government will survive this levels of economic catastrophe.

Anabobazina

Emily has very big hair on Newsnight!

Benpointer

bigjohnowls said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.

All candidates except Corbyn pivoted to austerity light.

I was going to vote Burnham until he joined YC and L4%K in dropping opposition to austerity.

I am sure L4%K means something to the initiated...

rottenborough

Have we heard from @Beverley_C since this morning?

whunter

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

They have access to healthcare, including ICU's

FF43

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.

This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.

We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.

I thought it was 60%? Although of course in reality it’s a sliding scale.

Sorry you're right I got the percentages the wrong way round. So approximately 400 000 deaths are needed to get to herd immunity at 1% mortality, I reckon.

Alistair

Question: If Capitalism is so good why does it need to be bailed out with Socialism every 10 years or so?

Floater

Poor, poor Spain

Spain 87,956 +7,846 7,716 +913

Foxy

Cyclefree said:

eristdoof said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.

I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.

As well as the possibility of vaccine, there is the development of effective treatments. Perhaps targeted antivirals, perhaps monoclonal antibodies, or simply convalescent serum. In addition the virus could just Peter out or become less virulent. Where there is life, there is hope. Hang in there @Cyclefree.

Floater

Alistair said:

Question: If Capitalism is so good why does it need to be bailed out with Socialism every 10 years or so?

Beats me - ask East Germany or the CCCP

Richard_Tyndall

Cyclefree said:

eristdoof said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.

I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.

Without a vaccine there can be no other strategy. And one of the reasons they are discussing things like herd immunity is that vaccines for things like Coronaviruses are extremely difficult to develop. There was a lot of progress made on a SARS vaccine but it never got to the point of human testing so to date we have no vaccine for either SARS or MERS.

That is not to say we won't get one for COVID-19 but those talking with near certainty of one being developed any time soon are perhaps being over optimistic.

rottenborough

Andy_JS said:

Why did NightHawks ever disappear from PB? That's the big question.

I blame CNN.

Benpointer

blairf said:

FF43 said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.

This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.

We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.

every toy model i've seen suggests the absolute best course is isolating the infected. virtual leper colonies. you can achieve this brutally or not. but that is the No. 1 successful strategy from all the toy models i've seen. and toy models have a habit of being close to the most sophisticated ones.

Both my mum and my father-in-law would be in the category that would need to be permanently isolated.

And it would utterly destroy them; it's not a long-term option.

Both are in in their 80s - they would happily take their chances to experience a bit of libery and social contact. It's as much as we can do to get them to accept a short-term isolation.

DAlexander

rottenborough said:

Local news talking about improved air quality as roads empty.

Electric cars can't come soon enough.

The sky is so clear now, I've never seen the North Star so bright before.

Floater

rottenborough said:

Have we heard from @Beverley_C since this morning?

Was just thinking the same

Cyclefree

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

The theory is that the more people who have had it and have immunity, the less likely it is to spread and reach those who lack immunity. My understanding is that in cases like Italy it is the swamping of the ICU system that has led to a higher proportion of deaths. So I would suppose that overall the chances of both catching it and subsequently dying from it are much reduced if you still lack immunity.

But that is a very cautious layman's interpretation and could be very wide of the mark.

That’s my understanding too. By reducing the chance of their getting it, we make sure we have the capacity to cope with those that do.

What does this “coping” consist of? There is no cure. “Coping” just seems to be a polite way of saying that those admitted to hospital die in beds rather than on trollies or on the floor.

And what does the “testing” actually achieve? Not saying it’s wrong or unnecessary but what is it for, exactly?

rottenborough

Floater said:

rottenborough said:

Have we heard from @Beverley_C since this morning?

Was just thinking the same

Hope she is ok.

isam

Regarding Boris’ great leader ratings... he has provided, by design or accident, exactly what a large percentage of the country want - social democracy inside closed borders. The reason neither side can usually win big majorities is they promise one or the other.

Jonathan

So it turns out that socialised medicine was a massive strategic advantage. Who knew?

Benpointer

Cyclefree said:

eristdoof said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.

I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.

Surely the long-term strategy has to be develop a vaccine.

blairf

FF43 said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.

This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.

We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.

I thought it was 60%? Although of course in reality it’s a sliding scale.

Sorry you're right I got the percentages the wrong way round. So approximately 400 000 deaths are needed to get to herd immunity at 1% mortality, I reckon.

we just don't know! the modelling is exquisitely sensitive to many parameters we just don't have. test... test... test... data... data... data.

IshmaelZ

Andy_JS said:

Why did NightHawks ever disappear from PB? That's the big question.

It was born because there wasn't enough politics happening to provide 3 political threaders a day; then we flipped in 2015 from there being not enough politics to a lot too much.

Cyclefree

Richard_Tyndall said:

Cyclefree said:

eristdoof said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.

I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.

Without a vaccine there can be no other strategy. And one of the reasons they are discussing things like herd immunity is that vaccines for things like Coronaviruses are extremely difficult to develop. There was a lot of progress made on a SARS vaccine but it never got to the point of human testing so to date we have no vaccine for either SARS or MERS.

That is not to say we won't get one for COVID-19 but those talking with near certainty of one being developed any time soon are perhaps being over optimistic.

Thanks. Not very encouraging from my perspective.

rottenborough

DAlexander said:

rottenborough said:

Local news talking about improved air quality as roads empty.

Electric cars can't come soon enough.

The sky is so clear now, I've never seen the North Star so bright before.

Venus certainly looked bright a few days ago.

Floater

Cyclefree said:

Floater said:

wow just wow - Trump Presser

What’s the fool saying now?

The religious fundamentalism and the plugs for different company's

Cyclefree

Benpointer said:

Cyclefree said:

eristdoof said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.

I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.

Surely the long-term strategy has to be develop a vaccine.

And if there isn’t.....?

geoffw

Andy_JS said:

"On Monday, former supreme court justice Lord Sumption said that excessive measures were in danger of turning Britain into a “police state”, singling out Derbyshire police – which deployed drones and dyed a lagoon black – for “trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells”."

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumption

He presented a cogent case on the World at One (Radio 4) earlier today. Worth listening to.

rcs1000

Andy_JS said:

"On Monday, former supreme court justice Lord Sumption said that excessive measures were in danger of turning Britain into a “police state”, singling out Derbyshire police – which deployed drones and dyed a lagoon black – for “trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells”."

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumption

Only they didn't dye a lagoon black.

Richard_Nabavi

Was this the last outing?

https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/26/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-55/

Ah, happy days - May 2015. Comments include commiserations to one Nick Palmer ex-(2)- MP.

blairf

if i could ask for one thing. it won't happen but hey ho. isolate an entire town and test everyone, test them every week. and track them. in these war conditions it wouldn't be that hard. maybe norwich.

another_richard

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

eristdoof said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.

I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.

As well as the possibility of vaccine, there is the development of effective treatments. Perhaps targeted antivirals, perhaps monoclonal antibodies, or simply convalescent serum. In addition the virus could just Peter out or become less virulent. Where there is life, there is hope. Hang in there @Cyclefree.

I'm intrigued by this terrifying disease which mysteriously came and then vanished:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweating_sickness

bigjohnowls

Benpointer said:

bigjohnowls said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244672020929011714?s=09

I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....

If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...

Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....

Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.

All candidates except Corbyn pivoted to austerity light.

I was going to vote Burnham until he joined YC and L4%K in dropping opposition to austerity.

I am sure L4%K means something to the initiated...

Liz 4% Kendall

The least successful leadership candidate in Labour history

DecrepiterJohnL

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1244651040978452481?s=09

Do we have a ballpark for the seats Tories would have gained/Labour would have lost in December on more updated boundaries?

I've thought about this for 30 seconds and so far as I can see the more egregious gerrymandering measures have been removed so it may be more neutral than some would hope. I'd caution that any movement of seats to England from Wales or Scotland might be exploited by nationalist parties.

We do need more detail though. Chloe Smith's written statement is here:
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2020-03-24/HCWS183/

Richard_Nabavi

Although oddly there was a semi-nighthawk in 2018:

https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/05/24/it-is-time-we-thought-about-another-pb-gathering/

Benpointer

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Cyclefree said:

eristdoof said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.

Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.

I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.

Surely the long-term strategy has to be develop a vaccine.

And if there isn’t.....?

I'm going to have to refer you to @Foxy's post. I do feel for your predicament though.

FF43

Cyclefree said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blairf said:

long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.

I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.

Edit. Oh and very welcome back.

A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?

The theory is that the more people who have had it and have immunity, the less likely it is to spread and reach those who lack immunity. My understanding is that in cases like Italy it is the swamping of the ICU system that has led to a higher proportion of deaths. So I would suppose that overall the chances of both catching it and subsequently dying from it are much reduced if you still lack immunity.

But that is a very cautious layman's interpretation and could be very wide of the mark.

That’s my understanding too. By reducing the chance of their getting it, we make sure we have the capacity to cope with those that do.

What does this “coping” consist of? There is no cure. “Coping” just seems to be a polite way of saying that those admitted to hospital die in beds rather than on trollies or on the floor.

And what does the “testing” actually achieve? Not saying it’s wrong or unnecessary but what is it for, exactly?

If there isn't a healthy human nearby the virus has nowhere to go and dies out. The key to keeping transmission to an absolute minimum of to keep the uninfected segregated from the infected. Testing allows a degree of confidence in who is in which group. Testing doesn't solve the problem of itself. You need to segregate. But it allows that segregation to be more accurate. Accurate segregation not only reduces transmission it also allows healthy people to go about their normal activities.

Jonathan

Richard_Nabavi said:

Was this the last outing?

https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/26/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-55/

Ah, happy days - May 2015. Comments include commiserations to one Nick Palmer ex-(2)- MP.

Ironic. What a lucky escape that defeat was.