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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest England “day of death” data suggests the peak was a wee
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest England “day of death” data suggests the peak was a week ago
Easter holiday reporting effects have now been ironed out and here are the English death data by day of occurrence. pic.twitter.com/Sz7Hp0bUKc
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52289607
Tearful care home bosses saying they've been let down and old folk are dying because of lack of testing to date. Others saying they've put their infection control procedures in place they would have done against a bad flu season but it hasn't been enough.
The thing that really got me was one care home manager saying if only he'd been able to get his staff and patients to test negative, they could have skipped the PPE and that would have made care much more personal/comfortable for the old dears.
I can see the attraction of that but it did worry me that they all seemed to view the testing as foolproof and a silver bullet, with a negative test indicating that all was clear.
Seems dangerous to me, as false negatives appear to be rather common. If you're testing a care worker because they've got symptoms or they believe they've been exposed to it at home or whatever then wouldn't it be safer for them to be staying at home anyway? The negative test doesn't "prove" they're safe to return. And if you did a mass testing of all your staff regardless of symptoms or possible prior exposure, then even if you did believe all the negative test results were correct, that only shows they were clear today. What about tomorrow, or next week?
Obviously it would be great if you just so happened to test someone who was asymptomatic but infectious and stopped them bringing the virus in, but it would involve a big a stroke of luck that you tested them after they caught it rather than just before and cleared them, but not so long after that the symptoms had started to show (I think the eggheads reckon some people never know they had it while others have a brief pre-symptomatic stage before the symptoms kick in). And in the meantime while you're waiting for the test result, should these apparently asymptomatic and unexposed people be coming to work?
A big difference between care homes and hospitals is that we accept that COVID is going to be floating around in hospitals and even with PPE it's inevitable some of the staff are going to catch it too. With care homes the arithmetic of the risk is rather different, you just don't want it getting in at all, if you can avoid it.
Those care homes that have just locked down a crew of managers, care staff, cooks and cleaners inside have given themselves a fighting chance. Even then, it's quite common for frail residents to have to go to hospital (eg if they've had a fall) and then come back again, and they might bring something in with them. If staff are going in and out every day, and spending time with the kiddywinkles or out shopping, then no matter what you do with the testing I can't see how, with current technology, you can stop it.
Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
"Your mobile phone is becoming your ankle bracelet"
Interview with Edward Snowden on the privacy implications of Covid-19.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5OAjnveyJo
"...looking at the experience of other countries, it is not clear that a lockdown caused the epidemic to reverse, and if Sweden suggests that sensible hygiene and modest distancing measures are likely just as effective as draconian lockdown; and
covid-19 deaths per day are clearly levelling off in the UK; and
there is clear evidence of a matching slowdown in reliable forward indicators"
https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/
*sound of Tazer*
"It is now...."
"Does peak infection sync with lockdown enforcement?
The lockdown logic’s basic arithmetic doesn’t add up"
https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/
Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.
Or should I save them to throw at passing cyclists?
Honestly, what do you have against cyclists? Nice people like me are cyclists, though we won’t be very nice if you start throwing things at us.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250400567085748225?s=21
Other cyclists? Not so much it seems...
The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...
3.
My experience is that most of us - in Italy as much as in England - continue to receive only the host. Communion under both kinds is definitely a young person's choice in Catholicism.
drunken imbecilesDepartment of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.the list goes on and on.
All we get instead is country A has fewer deaths than UK --Gotcha!
Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
Pregnant nurse with cornavirus dies but baby is saved
A pregnant 28-year-old nurse who was diagnosed with Covid-19 has died.
An emergency caesarean section was performed to deliver the nurse's child, Channel 4 News repored.
The baby is alive and being cared for, the broadcaster said.
In an internal email, the Trust’s chief executive described her as a “wonderful young woman who made a huge contribution”.
He said the survival of her baby daughter was a “beacon of light at this very dark time”.
They are indicative of a small decline, or perhaps a plateau.
This is similar to other countries which also had a long tail following a peak, contrary to the exponential fashion in which they added cases (/deaths).
FPT: As big an idiot as takes a Nat Onal story at face value?
Italy's deaths peaked on 27/3, at 919 deaths, taking the total to 9134.
Their latest figures still contain 622 new deaths, bringing the total to 21067.
The tail is long, and deaths still have some way to increase. They are suppressing the new case numbers by around 20% per week.
So the peak day for deaths look to be nearer 30% than 50% of the way through in terms of the total death toll.
What we are taking as the UKs peak day for deaths, 9/4 with 980, took the total to 8958, so those numbers are very close to Italy's at this stage.
It’s judgment.
This seems the best they can do in the circumstances I guess.
The upshot for my daughter is this, I`d expect her to end up with a grade one higher on each subject as compared to her mock results. If this doesn`t happen I shall be appealing as it seems to me that the mocks (which were proper exams under exam conditions) represents the best guide of all.
But I’m quietly encouraged with recent figures, if pleased is the right adjective for several hundred of my fellow countrymen dying each day.
Off to language gaol with you!
[Ironically, the spellchecker shows 'gaol' as an apparent error].
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuigptwlVHo
I differentiate by using "judgment" to refer to court decisions and "judgement" outside the forensic sense.
And there really isn't much that the exam boards can do now to fix this beyond ranking pupils against previous years and awarding marks that will be very similar to last year's results from that school,
We didn't run mocks as they've been done before, so the NEA is going to be one of my main pointers.
'One's country' and 'nationalism' obviously. Did you think I meant pizza and pineapple?
There is a significant puzzle about how the Italians hung on to the pizza concept for so long without having actually discovered pineapple though
Many Americanisms are actually old English terms with one variant being retained by us and the other by the US. (Fall and Autumn spring to mind).
The courts might believe themselves infallible, but in this instance I must contend that judgement is perfectly valid.
So what I grade at 3 or 4 in the school I work in would be an 8 at the school I live closest to (that’s not a joke, I’ve inspected some of their work and was appalled).
As for previous years, that’s even more worrying as it assumes consistency between cohorts. Last year my highest grade was a C and I was glad to get that because they were all without exception lazy thickos. This year 50% should be A or B because they are bright and hardworking. Are they to be penalised because last year my ablest students thought a page of handwriting was enough for a 30 mark essay?
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
*Grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
My Dad got a letter today telling him he is on the vulnerable list and must’ve go out for 13 weeks. This has to be wrong doesn’t it? His best mate has leukaemia and he got the letter 3 weeks ago
Why would my Dad, who has only been out for a walk over the park a few times in the last month, have to stay in for a further 13 weeks of leukaemia patients can go out in 10?
I quite like being properly offline when not on the computer. How the internet affects psychology of individuals and groups (even without nefarious propaganda and so forth) remains to be explored.
Mr. Foremain, not sure about that either way... as an aside, TA Dodge is one of my favourite historians and his work (written around 1900) has far fewer 'American' English spellings than one might think, given he was an American.
Ah, my coat.
It's a moment where one instinctively reaches for poetry and what better than this one. It's close to perfect.
We made it through the rain
We kept our world protected
We made it through the rain
We kept our point of view
We made it through the rain
And found ourselves respected
By the others who
Got rained on too
And made it through
Now the government have to decide what the strategy is. Will it be herd immunity through allowing the virus to spread as much as the NHS can deal with, or will it be local eradication, followed by quarantine for travellers and improved contact-tracing?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver
...Likewise, we know that S(10) > Σ(10) > 3 ↑↑↑ 3 is a gigantic number and S(17) > Σ(17) > G, where G is Graham's number - an enormous number. Thus, even if we knew, say, S(30), it is completely unreasonable to run any machine that number of steps. There is not enough computational capacity in the known part of the universe to have performed even S(6) operations directly...
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html
If so, may I refer President XI to the Streisand Effect...
His answer was to tell them how to do it but not the answer.
What exams taken in this way is supposed to tell the examiner board is simply beyond me but the Highers don’t cover metaphysics.
Although it shows he is a nice person.
All these numbers are countable - there is a bigger space, and in fact there's a bigger number of bigger spaces (endlessly far).
And he is nice when he’s not showing off. :-)
Therefore we must boycott the racist Chinese Government.