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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pale Horse. Politics in the shadow of Covid-19
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pale Horse. Politics in the shadow of Covid-19
NEW: Wed 15 April update of coronavirus trajectoriesDaily deaths:• US & UK may be peaking. Doesn’t mean battle is won, but very good news if true• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early => gentle slopesLive charts: https://t.co/JxVd2cG7KI pic.twitter.com/18FmpROYFi
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In 6 months time if the death toll here is comparatively high per head of population vs other countries you can say that but we are early into a multi month situation with a virus we understand little about so far despite all the great work done by scientists. As it stands the UK's situation is not exceptionally bad, nor good. We have no absolute methodology of putting this to ground, its purely management for demand on the public health system. Lots of people have had it, lots will get it in the months to come
People are dying, what a surprise, did you miss the kind of numbers being bandied about at the start? People will die for months to come. Only then can we judge whether we are doing 'badly'.
Can anyone point to international comparisons of the ONS weekly death statistics? I had a look for ones for Germany, but couldn't find any.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lbsbusinessstrategyreview/2020/04/06/how-many-people-have-really-died-from-covid-19/#1136acc467f7
PPE production and distribution have had issues, but again, for any second wave we should have time to cope with building stocks, perhaps even for export at the top end.
Once those are all in hand, you can turn to a very measured release from lock down. I have always said April was a write-off. May will see progress out of this thing. Handling that to minimise the economic damage is the second-tier toxic event that has to be managed. So far, I have relative confidence the Government will manage that too. But having got the medical part in hand, they will still get no credit for that if they are felt to have badly buggered up the economy. Their current B+ could easily yet be D- overall.
I don't think it's the worst of all worlds. The NHS hasn't hit capacity, and the virus hasn't gone away, so we need to safely reinstate as much economic activity as we can within its bounds.
But, I don't see why that can't permit openings of schools and nurseries (definitely), pubs, restuarants and cinemas (with suitable separation and timing/booked seatings, if necessary) plus parents, grandparents and their children being able to see one another.
Nightclubs, crowded bars, mass parties, and large race meets may still need to be postponed (for now) unless and until they can be done safely.
(Oh, and strip the bloody police of their extra powers asap.)
That will obviously not look normal.
I'm not sure how different any of the first stages of any return to "normal" will look. Some shops will re-open - but will people go there? Pubs, cinemas, clubs, theatres, concert halls - they will remain closed. Restaurants with well-spaced tables? Maybe. You can resume seeing friends again - but will you? "This thing is still out there - and this thing can still kill you." How badly do you want to catch up on their gossip of how their life under lockdown was, er, just the same as yours? To hear how they probably don't have a job next month. What an uplifting trip out that will be....
But schools can re-open. That will be a change. A return to normal. Building sites can get back to building offices no-one needs, homes no-one can afford. We can - maybe - go out in our cars without a police drone tailing us. We can - maybe - take a drive in a National Park. But it will still feel like a life devoid of fun.
Edit
On the google browser on my phone you find it in the option given in the menu accessed by the three dots in the top right of the screen
I'm hosting a virtual quiz night on Saturday. Both Americans and Brits will be participating.
It would be great if everyone shared their favorite quiz question.
Thanks!
The notion that all the older and more vulnerable people in the country - let alone the bulk of the population that does not fall into those categories - will lock themselves away indefinitely is risible. There is a fundamental issue of quality of life here. People will not rot at home whilst their lives and livelihoods fall apart around them. They'll be desperate, variously, to go back to work and start earning money, to see their friends and family, and just to get out of the house and do some of the things they used to enjoy for a change.
The lockdown is being very well observed at the moment because it hasn't been in place for very long and people recognise its importance. As time moves on, the length of incarceration grows, the daily death count begins to fall and people become increasingly inured to the monotony of the numbers in any event, the public appetite for an easing of the restrictions will only grow. There will be no swift return to normality - indeed, in some respects normality as we remember it from before the crisis will probably never return - but a gradual easing of the restrictions should be expected starting next month.
After that, people will have to adjust their ways of being and doing, and learn to live with the virus. Younger people at very much lower risk of this disease will mostly want to get out there and, frankly, take their chances with it. Older and vulnerable people will pick and choose more carefully when they need to go out, but make no mistake that most of them loathe the restrictions, follow them only out of necessity, and won't want to be deprived of their freedom forever. Because that is what we may well be talking about if we expect them to wait for a vaccine that may never come. As this disaster drags on, many people over 70 (particularly if they already have serious health conditions) will be actively wondering if they might die of something else whilst waiting for the vaccine, and thus have spent the last six or twelve or eighteen months of their lives communicating with their loved ones through a phone or a camera to no useful effect.
(TBC)
My best guess for how this all unwinds is that it ends in recession rather than slump. The shops will reopen, quite a lot of the weaker ones will be cleared out by the cumulative effects of lockdown and social distancing restrictions when they start back up, but the totality of shopping is not going to disappear online (and to the extent that it does, this itself will provide employment opportunities for some of the workers let go elsewhere in the economy.) Takeaway restaurants will all reopen; many eat-in establishments will also be done to death by social distancing but others will adapt through various means (such as offering a takeaway option and developing a hybrid offer where they sell produce and groceries as well as meals) and carry on. Museums and galleries can simply control numbers on the doors, using ticketing if they choose. Hairdressers can get around social distancing problems by only using half their chairs but wearing masks and opening for much longer hours, with the staff working in shifts.
You can imagine a scenario in which most retail and leisure businesses that manage to survive this thing in the short-term can eventually reopen, whilst the Government keeps those which it feels cannot be safely opened on life support for longer. And even within the high-risk categories, perhaps there is latitude? Pubs, bars and nightclubs have always been under an obligation to keep out the under-18s; perhaps, in future, they will be made to ask everybody for ID and to turn away the over-30s or over-40s as well?
There will be lasting damage from this crisis, but society will learn to adapt and to move on. That won't be possible for every individual - some of the people who survive this are going to come out of the other side broken, and the mental health crisis caused by Covid-19 will be with us long after the disease itself has finally subsided - but most people will want to get on with living their lives. That's human nature.
Carlotta will be gnashing her teeth yet again at being proved to be a diddy once more with her pathetic support of her Lords and Masters.
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/04/16/the-pressure-that-caused-hancocks-panicked-response-to-grab-the-ppe-for-his-england/
I like questions people have an argument about, or have to puzzle out a bit...
Which video in 2012 was the first to reach 1bn views on YouTube?
I don’t want them having the powers one second longer than necessary, and then I want all increases in their numbers cancelled.
"Where do you find Piscine Molitor Patel and Richard Parker?"
How many aliases does the famed international author Tom Knox have, both online and in print?
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/04/15/former-pr-man-offers-a-wee-badge-while-former-nurse-offers-the-living-wage/
It’s easier and it’s still of course a trick question.
(Note. Don't answer that, because I'll have to ban you.)
What a contemptibly cheap, fake-news, journalistic cliche. Even Trump couldn't distort the truth so despicably.
From one point of view, ALL death tolls mount. In the history of humanity, more people had died by yesterday than by the day before.
From another: the toll yesterday from CV-related deaths in the UK FELL yesterday (761 on April 15 vs 778 on April 14 and 938 on April 8, according to Worldometer).
And everyone knows that, in the UK like everywhere else, these numbers are hugely flawed anyway.
But by digging out the silly clickbait tricks tabloid headline writers use to get attention, Meeks turns what may well be a sensible critique of the government's management of this crisis into yet another lefty rant.
Sad
So long as that 2m separation is maintained and hygiene is too it shouldn’t matter where you are or what you do, within reason. The risk vector is large groups of people getting physically very close to one another.
An alternative is to ask it the other way round: give the events and ask the day of year.
Crows are one of the easiest. Also Owls.
Not sure whether they vary UK/US. Probably do.
(p.s. I do know the correct aswer)
Since this usually consists of me sinking pints alone in the corner whilst moaning to the landlord (and vice versa) from a distance, or boring my wife as she drinks wine far more slowly, I don’t see it as a problem.
And which was the last former Beatle to top the the US singles charts?
https://twitter.com/koryodynasty/status/1250364111109509132?s=09
https://twitter.com/BlueleafCare/status/1241288508423180289
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52300054
That one works just as well in the US as here.
Craig did one outstanding Bond (CR), one OK Bond (Skyfall), one incomprehensible Bond (QoS), and one goodness there is a good movie in here if you only cut it down by about an hour Spectre.
I hope that Too Young To Think About Dying On A Thursday is not too bad.