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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Kamala Harris still clear betting favourite to be Biden’s runn
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Kamala Harris still clear betting favourite to be Biden’s running mate
If it hadn’t been for CO-19 we would be just three weeks away from the local elections including the big one for Mayor or London. Those, of course, got postponed and there will be an even bigger range of elections taking place in May 2021.
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"Data were previously shown by reporting date. The reporting date is the date that PHE published the data, which would normally be one day after the laboratory submitted the data to PHE. In many cases labs submit data in batches, so there may be no cases for a week and then a large number on one day. This is not helpful for analysing the incidence of COVID-19 over time.
The data are now shown by the date the specimen was taken from the person being tested. This gives a much more useful analysis of the progression of cases over time. It does mean that the latest days’ figures are always incomplete, and only data from five days or more ago can be considered complete."
This is indeed much more useful so that graph is perhaps what we should keep our eye on for interpreting trends - the raw figures themselves are not so helpful.
OK... given the Democrats' Presidential nominee is old and incoherent, it will be important to get someone not too old, and ideally compos mentis. It also means that it will be extremely important that the VP pick has their own accomplishments, as they will need to be seen as Presidential enough.
I think this means that the VP pick has to be either a Senator or Governor. This counts out Michelle Obama and Stacey Abrams, neither of whom have held high political office.
I can see good arguments for Kamala Harris, for Amy Klobuchar and for Gretchen Whitmer. It's also worth adding Nevada's Catherine Cortez Masto to the list. I think the Democrats will make the call based on percieved electability, and that means that Ms Warren is probably out (they'll want someone more moderate).
Ultimately, though, the value for the bettor here is laying. Sell 'em all.
Manu Dibango's Afrijazzy is an essential album.
As is Bibi Den's Tchibayi "The Best Ambience".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6F5farRJ_4&list=RDW6F5farRJ_4&start_radio=1&t=62
"Sawambe" is the killer track.... It has a brass section that kicks in like being hit by a train.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZzkPKpW9YA
But don't forget William Onyeabor - early African electronic. "You look so good, Fantastic Man" one of my all time favourite tracks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyL4c_LDCl0
Now he just looks like an old racist saying that these women would have been out in the cold were it not for his specific aim.
Sure there's Biden's pledge to pick a woman, preferably of colour which means she is qualified to be VP
But she didn't shine, at all, during the Presidential campaign and quickly ran out of steam
She's a thoroughly uninspiring speaker
She is crap at fundraising and has a controversial past as DA
She brings the Dems California. Um. Yes, let's chalk that one up as a big net gain
It genuinely seems to me that she brings nothing apart from her gender and colour. It will be deeply depressing if that is deemed sufficient. I don't know the US political landscape well, but there are certainly better female candidates, and I suspect there may be better female & minority candidates.
"In the longer term, it is possible that SARS-CoV-2 will have persistent direct neurotoxic effects and immune-mediated neurotoxic effects on the brain. The Spanish flu epidemic of 1918–19 was linked to a spike in incidence of post-encephalitic Parkinsonism. Currently, it is not known if SARS-CoV-2 infection could cause mental health or neurodegenerative disorders immediately or years after the acute respiratory phase of COVID-19 has passed, but action is needed now to build the research capacity to test these potentially important biological causes of COVID-19-related mental illness."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30168-1/fulltext
We as a society can cope with a large percentage of say bar and restaurant staff off work, painful as it is for us and them, but could we cope with 50-60% of power, sewerage, supply, emergency workers each being off for 2-3 weeks over just a couple of months?
It was here within the hour.
https://twitter.com/heckyessica/status/1251000807517978624?s=21
The film with Lucy Boynton playing her should be worth a watch (when the Good Lady Wifi can get a crew out of lockdown!)
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/lucy-boynton-marianne-faithfull-biopic-947385/
Might watch it tonight now I’ve mentioned it. ‘One of the days’ is great as is ‘Echoes’
https://twitter.com/StevieVanZandt/status/1250862469293264896?s=20
And the bodies.
Possibility that Israel could have 4th General Election in a about 18 months. Surely that will not happen?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52322379
Firstly, Italy's percentage of positive tests peaked at 56%. Given that (approximately) 25% of people who have the disease test negative, this suggests that perhaps three quarters of the people who were tested on that day had CV-19. The vast majority of people who have CV-19, of course, never get tested. The true number of new cases that day, we can reasonably assume, is going to have been at least 10x (and possibly much more) the number reported.
Italy is now doing 60,000+ tests a day. That's 20x the number it was doing when it was getting 56% positives. It's now seeing a positive rate (and I'm sorry, I haven't been keeping up with my spreadsheet so I don't know for sure) of less than 7%. (And it may now be down to sub-5%.)
The reality is that Italy's real new test load has collapsed, it's just that we dramatically miscounted the number it started off from.
Secondly, the lockdown in Italy and Spain is not as total as in China. By this, I mean that in China, if you have CV-19 (or the symptoms of CV-19) you get pulled out of your home and put in a holding place to avoid you infecting your family/housemates. That doesn't happen in Italy/Spain/anywhere in the Western world. This means the path to R equals zero is much longer, because you have whole households the virus has to spread through.
There are also other possibilities that are slight, but exist. Could domestic pets be carriers, for example?
They could be supremely successful, because the case rate could be a hundred times higher without it. My point is we don't have any evidence one way or another, because we don't have the counterfactual case.
In areas with housing close to each other or where people are walking/running around in and out of other people's breathed air, this has considerable consequences.
People in Italy and Spain must be behaving massively differently now to the way they were in February with social distancing etc. Are people still getting close to each other to justify these high infection figures?
If you add up the dead from the 3 other Nordic Countries they don't get up to even half the number of Swedish deaths.
Plus many S/E, of course.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52209790
Also look at the curves. In the Spanish Flu epidemic, we got sharp exponential spikes of death followed by rapid falls. In the case of lockdown countries we see the same exponential start to the death rate followed by a plateau as lockdown kicks in, then a gradual fall. China, Italy and Spain have all followed this pattern. There's evidence that the UK is now in the plateau stage.
Same as it ever was!
The head of the bloody MET was involved.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8229185/NHS-clap-draw-crowds-covidiots-ignoring-social-distancing-rules-Westminster-Bridge.html
The first words of the 22nd amendment are: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice"
First: that doesn't seem to prohibit becoming President another way.
Second: it doesn't prohibit one becoming President via the VP-route
The full text is:
Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.
Section 2. This Article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.
At this stage anyone seriously interested in doing anything other than confirm their own preferences would have found and studied them. DYOR.
So if New York had NOT locked down? ...
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-tories-make-bbc-complaint-21881408
I'm certain the GOP would challenge such an appointment. Which will get us into a letter of the law argument. If they can argue that the letter applies to the 2nd its hard to argue the letter doesn't apply and its the meaning that matters for the 12th...
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/15/bernie-left-divided-on-warren-for-vp-187113
And in any event, she'd likely be more use to Biden (and perhaps less problematic to him) in the Senate.
I'm still pleased with my 1000/1 on Harris as next President (and a similar side bet on Abrams).
The government said 6,700 people had died in the Guayas province alone in the first two weeks of April, far more than the usual 1,000 deaths there in the same period.
https://twitter.com/lfrayer/status/1251167275442290689?s=21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw2LNhwnquk