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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some points from today’s new polling
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some points from today’s new polling
How likely or unlikely do you think it is that the government will hit its target of testing 100,000 people per day for coronavirus by the end of the month? (YouGov)
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1) face masks don't work
2) face masks are needed for medical professionals, not you
3) most people don't know how to fit a face mask
4) you can't get one for love nor money
Give me a face mask and I'll wear one. Tell me the specifications you expect of a face mask that I'm to buy and I'll buy one.
But don't guilt trip me if you're not going to give me useful information.
Evaluation of nine commercial SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.09.20056325v1.full.pdf
...Due to urgency and demand, numerous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoassays are rapidly being developed and placed on the market with limited validation on clinical samples. Thorough validation of serological tests are required to facilitate their use in the accurate diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection, confirmation of molecular results, contact tracing, and epidemiological studies. This study evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of nine commercially available serological tests. These included three enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and six point-of-care (POC) lateral flow tests. The assays were validated using serum samples from: i) SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive patients with a documented first day of disease; ii) archived sera obtained from healthy individuals before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in China; iii) sera from patients with acute viral respiratory tract infections caused by other coronaviruses or non- coronaviruses; and iv) sera from patients positive for dengue virus, cytomegalovirus and Epstein Barr virus. The results showed 100% specificity for the Wantai SARS-CoV-2 Total Antibody ELISA, 93% for the Euroimmun IgA ELISA, and 96% for the Euroimmun IgG ELISA with sensitivities of 90%, 90%, and 65%, respectively. The overall performance of the POC tests according to manufacturer were in the rank order of AutoBio Diagnostics > Dynamiker Biotechnology = CTK Biotech > Artron Laboratories > Acro Biotech ≥ Hangzhou Alltest Biotech. Overall, these findings will facilitate selection of serological assays for the detection SARS- CoV-2-specific antibodies towards diagnosis as well as sero-epidemiological and vaccine development studies....
...Four POC tests were tested on all 30 case serum samples and had sensitivities in the rank order of 93% for AutoBio Diagnostics, 90% Dynamiker Biotechnology and CTK Biotech, and 83% for Artron Laboratories (Table 1). The positive predictive value of these tests were 100%, while the negative predictive values were 91%, 89%, 89%, and 74%, respectively...
As an aside, the apparently most accurate systems in each category are Chinese.
I don't see HMG doing that for us!
Why weren't they on board 4 weeks ago?
Lets hope its not a Hancock over promise again.
The antigen testing, I put down to the belief they have working antibody tests. But didn't seem to have any backup plan for fast roll out of drive-through testing sites.
And PPE, again even if they thought they had suppliers, no backup ready to go.
Multi-prong strategy for ventilators, multi-prong strategy for increasing NHS capacity, but not for testing or PPE.
Current cases: 107,709 (-528)
Deaths: 24,648 (+534)
Healed/discharged: 51,600 (+2,723)
Tests: 1,450,150 (+52,126)
Total cases: 183,957 (+2,729)
And it's going to be next year before it's available, even if either effort is successful.
So effectively the "very important announcement" is a distraction. The funding is, of course, vitally important and urgent; telling us about it rather less so.
Now he's done that, what about the national system of testing ?
For all the criticism he is facing and with some justification I cannot imagine anyone envys his position
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1252632433742274561
I suppose I should look at it as Darwinism in action.
* As we have all become clear, there isn't a Government policy to test patients before they're referred to care homes
* Strictly speaking care homes can refuse admission, e.g. to untested patients, but they do come under great pressure to take them
* One group of local homes do decline to take patients without testing; after initially taking one and having to essentially create the separate isolated operation for him for a week.
* We will refer it up to Surrey (as case homes are a County issue) but look into what can be done for sheltered accommodation (which is a Borough issue)
The situation is clearly grossly unacceptable. I'm also trying to get it raised at political level, and hope that those of you with your own contacts can do the same.
Carnyx said:
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It is indeed surprising. I noticed one tweeter couldn't believe it and assumed it was the National - which has a quite different URL.
They must have looked at the circulation numbers and bank balance and thought Crikey, we need to do something.
Also converting ExCeL and the NEC = good photo-ops.
Not a bad question but not answered at all by Hancock!
They have some excess capacity (which will increase in due course) - and apparently no clue as how to organise its use.
In South Korea, the government send a "ration" of two masks per person each week, I think.
I don't see HMG doing that for us!
We shouldn't expect a result any time soon though. Even if they're successful at the first attempt then it's thought that the first doses wouldn't be available for priority recipients until October, and getting it to the rest of the population would take some months after that.
I thought the new smart casual was boxer shorts, socks and a dress shirt.
As @Foxy suggested on the previous thread, local policies do vary (and his own area seems commendable).
That there isn't national guidance that aims to prevent the spread of infection into communities of the most vulnerable is quite extraordinary.
He has overpromised but not sure sacking him achieves anything, but for some a political victory may be their motive
But on the vaccine trial starting this week -
Would this be that "Phase 2" you were referring to in your note to me the other day? The crux main trial of two large groups divided into vaccine and placebo?
Google search of the company / people wouldn't lead you to believe they knew anything about this. So if they asked for money up front (and all governments already been burned numerous times) would lead you to believe they were billy bullshitters.
And we still have no idea if the stuff they got is actually legit. Was it Spain that got a whole load of fake masks, that were worse than not using one at all?
The last thing they want is the plebs randomly turning up wanting a test because they have a temperature .
So we had no plan B
It turns out it is a mistake to trust the French
"You know, in certain older civilized cultures, when men failed as entirely as you have, they would throw themselves on their swords."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52161995
"The US has been accused of redirecting 200,000 Germany-bound masks for its own use, in a move condemned as "modern piracy".
"The local government in Berlin said the shipment of US-made masks was "confiscated" in Bangkok.
"The FFP2 masks, which were ordered by Berlin's police force, did not reach their destination, it said."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8241195/Belgian-biotech-firm-claims-coronavirus-antibody-test-100-accurate.html
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1252639271573499913
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1252637396497248257
"Hell, I'm gonna grant your greatest wish. I'm gonna show you a world without sin."
The initial advice to the public on masks was based on a number of considerations:
1. anything other than an N95 will not protect the wearer from the virus and there was a shortage of these, so priority access had to be given to healthcare workers, and within that category, healthcare workers performing tasks on COVID-suspected cases that could generate droplets.
2. N95 masks have to be fit-tested to be effective against viruses
3. The early 'facts' indicated that the main mode of transmission was droplets, not aerosols.
4. If you wear surgical-type masks too long, the humidity in your breath wets them to the extent that they become aerosol generators with each exhalation.
Since then, 'knowledge' (in inverted commas as everything is subject to change in the face of new evidence) and circumstances have changed.
1. The supply of N95 masks has improved, and multiple groups have developed safe methods for their re-use in healthcare settings provided they are not heavily soiled
2. Evidence is increasing that aerosols are indeed a factor in transmission, particularly in indoor settings with smaller exposures over prolonged periods.
3. Simple cloth or surgical face masks can cut to just about zero aerosol generation from the mere act of talking. So while these masks may confer no protection to the wearer, they do contribute to a very large reduction of aerosol generation if everyone wears them when out in public spaces.
4. The stay at home orders have reduced the hours that people are outside, and hence the hours and single period duration that they will be wearing face masks, reducing to close to zero the likelihood that they will be worn to the point of saturation per point 4 above.
In novel, uncertain situations, risk responses have to adapt as new evidence comes in and as the situation evolves. We should expect many of the early 'facts', responses, and decisions to be wrong. We should not criticize public health authorities for changing advice, nor for getting things wrong if those errors were based on the best available information at the time and good intentions. Indeed, failure to adapt and change would be a bigger and more valid cause for condemnation.
You are absolutely right, Alastair, that one of the main planks of public health communications should be to give the public useful, practical information on what they can be doing to contribute to tackling this pandemic.
This is woefully absent from the White House. I am not in the UK, but if it is absent from HMG, they deserve criticism for that.
I could get us to 100% utilisation of the 39K/day in 24 hours.
https://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co.uk/news/environment/bethnal-green-mulberry-at-london-chest-hospital-move-1-6205772
but he is much more better and confident today